经济新常态下外贸发展对我国碳排放的影响

选取灵活的单区域模型,运用实物产值比计算方法,选取日本为进口代表国并结合进口国GDP排放强度的修正方法,针对加工贸易产品占我国外贸总额约50%的特点,改进现有内涵排放测算方法.研究结果显示我国出口产品内涵排放得到了显著的改善,呈现碳排放与出口额脱钩的现象,进口产品内涵排放占比全国碳排放的比重维持在3～5%左右,“十二五”期间净出口内涵排放的总量和占比比“十一五”期间都有所降低,显示我国出口贸易政策调整作用正在显现.需要不断坚持优化进出口政策,尽早实现我国进出口产品内涵排放之间的平衡.投资增速的快速下降已经开始对产业结构产生影响,但中国未来需要进一步加速最终消费的增长以弥补投资下降所带来的需求不足,并鼓励服务业需求的发展.     

国际贸易“碳中和”研究热点领域及其动向

碳中和是世界各国面临的共同问题。经济全球化与贸易自由化背景下国际贸易总量快速增长,伴随着深度国际分工与产业转移,贸易产品的生产者与消费者在陆表形成严重的空间位移。利用文献计量软件CiteSpace分析国际贸易主题下碳中和相关文献,揭示国际贸易“碳中和”研究动向。研究发现：（1）温室气体在全球范围时空演变,使跨区域、多尺度的全球碳治理变得更加复杂,发达国家将高污染与低价值链产业转移至各发展中国家,以生产者责任划分的碳核算原则不再适用于国际贸易合作。（2）进出口贸易逐渐成为新兴经济体经济发展动力,全球碳治理应转向新兴经济体与区域一体化,全球气候政策设计应遵守国际碳市场公平性底线,不断优化碳排放量核算体系,完善碳会计方法,模拟全球碳减排预期效果。重点提高产业部门碳减排意识和产业清洁技术及能源利用效率,利用多种手段改变生态系统的增汇减碳能力。新兴经济体在承接发达国家技术援助同时,应重点关注本国能源产业,发展可再生能源产业,提高能源的利用效率,并运用经济政策与金融工具促进本国的气候变化投融资产业发展。全球碳治理应更加注重公平性与国家间的经济发展、环境资源差异,利用多样的碳治理工具与协商合作方式,促使更多国家参与全球化或区域一体化的碳治理模式。（3）中国亟待通过国内多产业、多部门的增汇减排与国际碳减排、碳中和实践,健全碳市场机制,提高碳治理水平,为国际碳治理合作提供“最大公约数”。     

北京试点碳市场行业基准值研究——以供热行业为例

以北京试点碳市场的供热行业为例开展行业基准值研究,基于2013～2019年碳试点经核查的热力重点排放企业数据,采取4种基准线情景对北京市热力行业碳排放基准值进行分析,结果表明:随着北京市大气污染治理措施推进,供热行业燃煤清洁化改造基本完成,以2017年为分水岭,供热强度由快速下降过渡到平稳状态,适宜选择更近的历史年份作为分析的基准年,经综合评估基准线数值的先进性,行业配额的盈余程度和配额不足企业比例,建议北京市供热行业基准值取值为63.1kgCO₂/GJ,该基准值比已发布的北京市地方行业能耗限额标准严格,与已发布的北京市供热行业碳排放先进值具有较好一致性;北京市热力行业从历史强度法转变为基准线法后,通过划定统一的基准线,令行业整体配额处于不足状态,公平性相比历史强度法进一步提高,对实现全市双碳目标下热力系统重构具有积极促进作用.     

Assessing audit impact and thoroughness of VCS forest carbon offset projects

Voluntary markets transacted over $66 million USD of forest carbon offsets in 2016, according to Forest Trends, and over 99% of those offset projects were audited to a standard, primarily the Verified Carbon Standard (VCS). We provide a table characterizing all 70 validated and verified forest carbon projects employing the VCS version 3.0 currently-in-use (December 2011–July 2017). We also examine two separate aspects of the audit process––impact and thoroughness––to assess the effectiveness of the costly audit process, which can consume up to one-third of offset revenue. Audit impact we measure in terms of reduction in the number of offsets from ex ante estimated to ex post approved. Audit thoroughness we measure both directly in terms of the number of auditor hours worked per project and also indirectly in terms of the total number of Corrective Action Requests (CARs)/Non-Conformity Reports (NCRs) auditors prescribe. In terms of impact, we find that Afforestation/Reforestation/Restoration (A/R/R) and Improved Forest Management (IFM) projects, though only constituting 5% of total verified offsets, demonstrate significant (p < = 0.05) reductions from ex ante estimated to ex post approved offsets, likely because auditors can easily scrutinize carbon stocks/emission factors for the commercial tree species involved in these project types. In terms of thoroughness, we find that higher ex ante estimates correlate with more total auditor hours worked and total CARs/NCRs prescribed for three of four project activity types, likely because auditors perceive larger ex ante projects as higher risk. We conclude with recommendations for the VCS to empower auditors to scrutinize carbon stocks/emissions factors from avoided deforestation projects, and also to continue to flag high ex ante projects as higher risk.     

甘肃省虚拟能行业分布及其省际贸易空间格局

基于投入-产出模型,研究了2007、2010、2012年甘肃省分行业能源的直接和完全能耗系数大小,以及省际贸易中虚拟能源的净输入和净输出特征.结果表明：2007~2012年,甘肃省人均虚拟能源消费量和能源生产总量均呈上升趋势,增幅分别为25.5%和28.2%,13.9%和13.6%,能源消费量增幅远高于能源生产总量.2007~2012年甘肃省虚拟能源在行业间的流动趋势变化明显,其中2007年虚拟能源主要流向工业和交通运输及仓储业,其值分别为2957.41和2336.35万t标准煤.2010年变化趋势与其一致,其值分别为2563.92和3094.53万t标准煤.2012年虚拟能源主要流向建筑业和批发零售及其他行业.其值分别为3690.54和3080.61万t标准煤.2007~2012年,甘肃省虚拟能源总量增加了28.9%,其中建筑业和批发零售及其他行业分别增加了94.7%和92.5%,农业,工业和交通运输及仓储业分别减小了24.4%,42.3%和91.6%.2007~2012年甘肃省虚拟能源呈净输入-净输出-净输入的贸易格局,主要输向河北、内蒙古、上海和陕西等能源总量较多且经济发达的地区,其中工业和交通运输及仓储业为主要输出行业,分别占总输出的36.6%和38.3%;输入主要来源于北京、辽宁、江苏、福建和宁夏等省区.因此,减少省内能源输出量,提高省外输入量对甘肃省经济和能源的可持续发展及利用至关重要.     

基于31省MRIO模型的中国省际碳转移及碳公平研究

基于MRIO模型方法自主编制了2012年中国区域间投入产出表,测算了中国31省在生产者责任和消费者责任视角下的碳排放量,以及省际贸易隐含碳转移量.在此基础上,分别从各省在省际贸易隐含碳净转移与隐含GDP净转移之间的关系、污染贸易条件值以及碳基尼系数三个方面分析了我国省际碳公平性问题.由于经济发展水平、资源禀赋、产业结构和能源结构的差异,各省在生产者和消费者视角下的碳排放量存在明显差异;隐含碳净转入省份多位于西部或属于欠发达省份,隐含碳净转出省份多为经济发达省份.中国31省在省际贸易中存在着明显的碳不公平现象,部分发达省份不仅让外省承担了自身的部分碳排放,而且获得了来自外省的GDP净输入,污染贸易条件值也小于1,在碳排放空间分配及经济效益上均处于绝对优势地位;而部分西部省份不仅为外省承接了部分碳排放还对外省净输出了GDP,污染贸易条件值也大于1,在碳排放空间分配和经济效益上均处于绝对劣势地位.2012年我国31省碳基尼系数在消费者责任视角下为0.24,在生产者责任视角下则达到了0.31,表明生产者责任视角下我国省际碳排放空间分配不公平性有所增强.     

基于31省MRIO模型的中国省际碳转移及碳公平研究

基于MRIO模型方法自主编制了2012年中国区域间投入产出表,测算了中国31省在生产者责任和消费者责任视角下的碳排放量,以及省际贸易隐含碳转移量.在此基础上,分别从各省在省际贸易隐含碳净转移与隐含GDP净转移之间的关系、污染贸易条件值以及碳基尼系数三个方面分析了我国省际碳公平性问题.由于经济发展水平、资源禀赋、产业结构和能源结构的差异,各省在生产者和消费者视角下的碳排放量存在明显差异;隐含碳净转入省份多位于西部或属于欠发达省份,隐含碳净转出省份多为经济发达省份.中国31省在省际贸易中存在着明显的碳不公平现象,部分发达省份不仅让外省承担了自身的部分碳排放,而且获得了来自外省的GDP净输入,污染贸易条件值也小于1,在碳排放空间分配及经济效益上均处于绝对优势地位;而部分西部省份不仅为外省承接了部分碳排放还对外省净输出了GDP,污染贸易条件值也大于1,在碳排放空间分配和经济效益上均处于绝对劣势地位.2012年我国31省碳基尼系数在消费者责任视角下为0.24,在生产者责任视角下则达到了0.31,表明生产者责任视角下我国省际碳排放空间分配不公平性有所增强.     

中国环境产品进出口贸易对碳排放的影响

环境产品贸易为应对全球环境变化的国际合作提供了新途径。中国在可再生能源设备等方面具有优势,环境产品贸易有利于落实碳达峰与碳中和目标。分析中国1996—2019年环境产品进出口规模、产品结构与贸易网络结构的变化,应用LMDI方法将碳排放分解为排放强度、能源效率、经济水平和人口规模四个分量,借助ARDL-ECM模型验证环境产品贸易与碳排放的协整关系及长短期效应。结果表明：（1）中国环境产品贸易对碳排放的影响表现为短期促进作用和长期抑制作用。（2）环境产品贸易主要通过促进能源效率的碳减排效应、抑制经济增长的碳排放效应而推动碳减排。（3）贸易产品专业化短期有利于碳减排,但从长期看多元化更有利。贸易影响力提升短期对碳减排有利,但对进口的长期依赖不利于碳减排。（4）碳减排不只靠能源相关产品,非能源相关产品贸易同样能促进经济提质增效而推动碳减排。     

Expert views on environmental impacts and their measurementin the forest industry

The paper argues that corporate environmental management should be based on significant environmental aspects that result in significant environmental impacts. The Finnish forest industry has substantially reduced its emissions but, being heavy industry, it still causes significant environmental impacts. This paper presents expert views on environmental impacts and their measurement. They were gathered through semi-structured theme interviews. The most frequently mentioned environmental impacts and significant environmental impacts related to water, energy and air. Positive environmental impacts resulted from recycling, forest industry products and use of energy. Traditional emission measurement was considered a well-measured issue. The target subjects of the measurement and especially environmental impact measurement require improvement. The contribution of this research is concerned with the development of measurement and two issues arising from the research are emphasised. First, environmental impact measurement should be further developed. Second, the measurement of the production chain that is physically outside the boundaries of forest industry mills should also be developed.     

A proposed Multi Criteria Analysis decision support tool for international environmental policy issues: a pilot application to emissions control in the international aviation sector

Policy making at the level of international environmental problems appears to lack a transparent, multi criteria based, decision support ‘tool’. This is due mainly to the highly political, volatile, and contextual nature of issues at this level. The environmental problem of how to regulate emissions from international civil aviation due to their transboundary nature, and the participation of international and domestic players, makes it a ‘wicked’ international environmental problem where policy making has proved problematic. This problem has been used as the basis for developing and pilot testing a tool for contributing to international policymaking, the Multi Criteria Decision Support System (MCDSS). This tool is based on simplifying and integrating key components of Multi Criteria Analysis with a Decision Support System. A preliminary application of the tool explored three options for progressing the reduction of aviation emissions. Testing was based on the allocation of weights to environmental, social, economic and institutional categories, which were each then internally weighted to reflect key criteria in the policy process. Finally, likely performances of each option, against the criteria, were evaluated against Likert scale measures. The outputs from each of these steps were combined to generate a summed best policy option. Conclusions have been drawn and they indicate that the tool is potentially useful especially in the initial stages of policy development. The MCDSS is not an alternative to the international policy process, but rather complements, and makes explicit key tradeoffs in, that process.     

收益原则视角下中国下游碳贸易平衡

基于多区域投入产出模型的戈什模型,以中国为主要研究对象,核算并分析了1995~2011年全球41个国家和地区的下游碳贸易平衡.结果表明,研究期间内中国收益侧碳排放远小于直接碳排放,下游碳贸易平衡年均增长率达11.92%,中国是收益侧碳排放最大的净进口国.日本、美国、德国、俄罗斯、澳大利亚及巴西等国对中国收益侧碳排放净出口规模不断扩大,中国已经成为这些国家和地区收益侧碳排放转移的重要目的地之一.建立以收益原则为基础的碳排放责任核算体系有利于建立更加公正和有效的碳减排方案,有利于中国主张合理的碳排放责任原则和实行有效的碳减排政策.     

欧盟航空碳税对中国的影响及应对建议

尽管始终备受争议的航空碳税计划终于在欧盟内外的双重压力之下面临流产,但是建立全球碳排放交易体系终究是大势所趋,中国在这一问题上应该有前瞻性.由于欧盟航空碳税同环保高度相关,本文通过资料调研及数据收集,对欧盟此举的主要原因和对中国的影响进行了分析,并从保护航空业竞争力、介入全球碳排放交易体系设计和我国环保工作实际出发提出了应对建议.     

Industrial symbiosis contributing to more sustainable energy use - an example from the forest industry in Kymenlaakso, Finland

Industrial symbiosis (IS) studies the physical flows of materials and energy in local industrial systems using a systems approach. In this study the total fuel and energy use, and greenhouse gas emissions are calculated for an ‘industrial park’ operating in the same manner as an IS. Moreover the relevance of industrial symbiosis, particularly one centred on pulp and paper manufacturing, in moving towards more sustainable fuel consumption and reduced greenhouse gas emissions is discussed. The system is compared to hypothetical stand-alone production. Moreover, possibilities to reduce the energy use and total greenhouse gas emissions of the park are identified.     

能源富集区贸易隐含碳及隐含SO2排放转移——以山西省为例

通过量化地区间碳排放和SO₂排放转移特征,可以较好地了解地区间的碳排放和SO₂排放的来源与去向,从而合理地制定各地区的减排与治理方案。采用多区域投入产出模型,计算2007年和2012年山西省输出和输入的隐含碳和隐含SO₂排放情况。结果表明：山西省为隐含碳和隐含SO₂排放输出区,输出的地区主要是江苏、河北、浙江和山东等地,输入的地区主要是河北、山东、内蒙古和河南等地。山西省向其他地区转移的隐含碳和隐含SO₂排放主要汇聚于金属冶炼及制品业、建筑业和化学工业等。其他地区向山西省转移的隐含碳和隐含SO₂排放主要集中于建筑业、采选业、金属冶炼及制品业等。基于上述研究结论,提出了一些关键性整改建议与措施。     

Forest carbon accounting methods and the consequences of forest bioenergy for national greenhouse gas emissions inventories

While bioenergy plays a key role in strategies for increasing renewable energy deployment, studies assessing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from forest bioenergy systems have identified a potential trade-off of the system with forest carbon stocks. Of particular importance to national GHG inventories is how trade-offs between forest carbon stocks and bioenergy production are accounted for within the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector under current and future international climate change mitigation agreements. Through a case study of electricity produced using wood pellets from harvested forest stands in Ontario, Canada, this study assesses the implications of forest carbon accounting approaches on net emissions attributable to pellets produced for domestic use or export. Particular emphasis is placed on the forest management reference level (FMRL) method, as it will be employed by most Annex I nations in the next Kyoto Protocol Commitment Period. While bioenergy production is found to reduce forest carbon sequestration, under the FMRL approach this trade-off may not be accounted for and thus not incur an accountable AFOLU-related emission, provided that total forest harvest remains at or below that defined under the FMRL baseline. In contrast, accounting for forest carbon trade-offs associated with harvest for bioenergy results in an increase in net GHG emissions (AFOLU and life cycle emissions) lasting 37 or 90 years (if displacing coal or natural gas combined cycle generation, respectively). AFOLU emissions calculated using the Gross-Net approach are dominated by legacy effects of past management and natural disturbance, indicating near-term net forest carbon increase but longer-term reduction in forest carbon stocks. Export of wood pellets to EU markets does not greatly affect the total life cycle GHG emissions of wood pellets. However, pellet exporting countries risk creating a considerable GHG emissions burden, as they are responsible for AFOLU and bioenergy production emissions but do not receive credit for pellets displacing fossil fuel-related GHG emissions. Countries producing bioenergy from forest biomass, whether for domestic use or for export, should carefully consider potential implications of alternate forest carbon accounting methods to ensure that potential bioenergy pathways can contribute to GHG emissions reduction targets.     

中国碳交易试点政策对城市碳排放绩效的影响及机制

以2010~2016年中国273个地级市面板数据为样本,采用倾向得分匹配-双重差分方法（PSM-DID）检验了碳排放权交易政策对于城市碳排放强度的影响效果以及机制.研究发现：碳排放权交易政策对试点城市碳排放强度的降低具有显著而持续的推动作用,随着年份的推进,政策效果越发明显.此外,利用中介效应分析发现,通过调整产业结构和节能减排的途径可以有效降低城市的碳排放强度,而科研投入的影响尚不明确.基于此,本文建议应该进一步在全国范围推广碳排放权交易政策,优化产业结构,提高第三产业比重,推动企业节能减排并树立绿色低碳消费理念.     

双碳背景下煤基产业绿色低碳转型之路

加快煤基产业的绿色低碳转型发展,对于中国实现碳达峰、碳中和目标至关重要。重点分析了煤炭、煤电、煤化工行业产品产量、温室气体排放等基本现状,识别煤基产业绿色低碳转型在产业布局、生态环境保护压力、能源利用效率、低碳技术创新等方面面临的风险挑战,并从科学谋划产业布局、加大生态环境保护力度、强化节能改造提效、聚焦技术创新应用、深化多产业耦合发展等角度提出煤基产业绿色低碳发展路径,为煤基产业的绿色低碳发展提供政策支撑。

     

基于IPAT扩展模型分析人口因素对碳排放的影响

以5个典型国家(中国、日本、印度、德国和美国)为研究对象,利用IPAT模型比较分析了人口总量、能源强度和人均财富对碳排放的影响程度.结果表明:中国和印度的人口总量是影响其碳排放变化的主要因素;而美国和日本财富的积累刺激碳排放增加的作用明显.基于1978─2007年中国人口和能源相关数据,以STIRPAT模型为框架,分别构建了总人口模型及家庭户模型,用于分析我国人口数量、人口结构、能源强度及消费变化对碳排放产生的影响.经模型验证发现,家庭户模型的解释力度总体优于总人口模型.碳排放量的各解释因素按其影响程度的大小依次为平均家庭户规模、人均居民消费额、人口结构、能源强度和家庭户数.针对适应低碳发展的人口政策提出了相关建议.      

The role of CH4 and N2O emission reductions in the cost-effective control of the greenhouse gas emissions from Finland

The reduction of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions may be quite expensive and it is necessary to consider reduction measures for other anthropogenic greenhouse gases, such as methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) as well. Their contribution to the total GHG emission from Finland is about 15–20%. In Finland most of the CH₄ emissions are due to waste management, agriculture and burning processes. N₂O emissions originate from burning processes, agriculture, industry and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen. The cost-effective reduction of the Finnish GHG emissions has been studied with the EFOM-ENV model, which is a quasi-dynamic linear energy system optimisation model. The target function to be minimised is the total discounted cost for the modelled system. In this study the model has been expanded to cover all well-known anthropogenic CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O sources and reduction measures. The results indicate it is economic to reduce the emissions of CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O in Finland. It is profitable to exploit the economic reduction potential of CH₄ and N₂O, because then the abatement of CO₂ emissions does not need to be as extensive as when the reduction is aimed only at CO₂ emissions. The inclusion of CH₄ and N₂O decreases the annual reduction costs about 20% in the year 2010.     

中国工业碳排放的因素分解与脱钩效应

采用广义迪氏指数分解法（GDIM）分析2000~2016年中国工业碳排放的驱动因素,并在此基础上,创新性地结合DPSIR框架构建脱钩努力模型测度工业碳排放的脱钩效应.研究结果表明：产出规模效应、技术进步效应、能源消费规模效应和人均碳排放效应是导致工业碳排放增加的主要因素,而产出碳强度效应与技术进步碳强度效应是减少工业碳排放的关键因素;工业碳排放的脱钩效应呈"未脱钩~弱脱钩~强脱钩"的阶段性特点;产出碳强度效应与技术进步碳强度效应是工业碳排放实现强脱钩的决定性因素,同时更需要调整能源结构、降低能源强度与碳排放强度来实现工业碳排放强脱钩.