Social impact assessments: Developing a consolidated conceptual framework

Social Impact Assessments (SIAs) have played an increasingly important role in the conduct of planned interventions, providing proponents the capacity to assess and manage the social consequences of their activities. Whilst the SIA field has experienced significant conceptual and practical development over the last decade, efforts at consolidating this within one framework have been limited. In this paper, we incorporate this new knowledge by redeveloping and thus updating the SIA procedural framework developed by Interorganizational Committee on Guidelines and Principles for Social Impact Assessment. In doing so, this updated procedural framework has attempted to incorporate current ‘best practice’ that focuses on participatory approaches to undertaking an SIA. This involved making adaptions to two steps, expansions to five steps, integration of a stronger participatory approach to six steps, and the development of a new step, Management and Evaluation reflecting moves towards ex-post use of SIA processes. It is hoped that this consolidation of the literature of a decade's worth of key findings in SIA research will lead to further efforts towards a meta-evaluation of SIA literature and a platform from which newer developments may be further investigated.     

An integrated assessment modeling framework for assessing primary and secondary impacts from carbon dioxide stabilization scenarios

As the nations of the world negotiate future controls on greenhouse gas emissions, a critical environmental policy issue becomes understanding the multiple environmental consequences of these controls. Here we describe an integrated assessment model for quantifying multiple environmental impacts of large-scale environmental initiatives and apply this model to climate change mitigation. Our analysis shows that reductions in global warming will be accompanied by reductions in ozone depletion, acid rain and mercury emissions, and desulfurization waste generation. We also conclude that the largest collateral benefits from reducing global climate change may be in the developing world. This result is critical since it is the developing nations who ultimately control the long-term success of any climate stabilization strategy. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Agent-based integrated assessment modelling: the example of climate change

Current approaches to deal with the socio-economic implications of climate change rely heavily on economic models that compare costs and benefits of different measures. We show that the theoretical foundations underpinning current approaches to economic modelling of climate change are inappropriate for the type of questions that are being asked. We argue therefore that another tradition of modelling, social simulation, is more appropriate in dealing with the complex environmental problems we face today.     

Canadian insights: The challenges of an integrated environmental assessment framework

The paper draws results from a review of literature to examine the strengths and weaknesses of the integrated environmental assessment framework in Canada with respect to the inclusion of health impact assessment. Insights include the legislative nature, rigid structure and priority for the natural environment that may restrict progress and the pool of government agencies that need to be convinced of the benefits of health impact assessment that may provide a strong structure for compliance in the long term.     

Uncertainty management in integrated assessment modeling: towards a pluralistic approach

Integrated Assessment (IA) is an evolving research community that aims to address complex societal issues through an interdisciplinary process. The most-widely used method in Integrated Assessment is modeling. The state of the art in Integrated Assessment modeling is described in this paper in terms of history, general features, classes of models, and in terms of the strengths and weaknesses, and the dilemmasand challenges modelers face. One of the key challenges is the issue of uncertainty management. The paper outlines the sources and types of uncertainty modelers are confronted with. It then discusses how uncertainties are currently managed inIntegrated Assessment modeling, on which evaluation it is argued that complementary methods are needed that allow for pluralistic uncertainty management. The paperfinalises with discussing pluralistic concepts and approaches that are currently explored in the IA community and that seem promising in view of the challenge to incorporate explicitly more than one hidden perspective in models.     

INASUD project findings on integrated assessment of climate policies

This communication summarizes the main findings of INASUD, an European-wide research project on integrated assessment of climate policies. The project aimed at improving the framing of climate policy analysis through the parallel use of various existing integrated assessment models. It provides a comprehensive examination of the link between uncertainty regarding damages and inertia in economic systems. Results show that the Kyoto targets and timing are consistent with the precautionary principle but offers little insurance for longer-term climate protection. Flexibility mechanisms offer potentials for cooperation with developing countries, and are necessary to tap the environmental and economic benefits of joint carbon and sulfur emissions abatement.     

Coupling climate and economic models in a cost-benefit framework: A convex optimisation approach

In this paper, we present a general method, based on a convex optimisation technique, that facilitates the coupling of climate and economic models in a cost-benefit framework. As a demonstration of the method, we couple an economic growth model à la Ramsey adapted from DICE-99 with an efficient intermediate complexity climate model, C-GOLDSTEIN, which has highly simplified physics, but fully 3-D ocean dynamics. As in DICE-99, we assume that an economic cost is associated with global temperature change: this change is obtained from the climate model, which is driven by the GHG concentrations computed from the economic growth path. The work extends a previous paper in which these models were coupled in cost-effectiveness mode. Here we consider the more intricate cost-benefit coupling in which the climate impact is not fixed a priori. We implement the coupled model using an oracle-based optimisation technique. Each model is contained in an oracle, which supplies model output and information on its sensitivity to a master program. The algorithm Proximal-ACCPM guarantees the convergence of the procedure under sufficient convexity assumptions. Our results demonstrate the possibility of a consistent, cost-benefit, climate-damage optimisation analysis with a 3-D climate model.     

Cumulative effect assessment in Canada: a regional framework for aquatic ecosystems

Sustainable development of the aquatic environment depends upon routine and defensible cumulative effects assessment (CEA). CEA is the process of predicting the consequences of development relative to an assessment of existing environmental quality. Theoretically, it provides an on-going mechanism to evaluate if levels of development exceed the environment's assimilative capacity; i.e., its ability to sustain itself. In practice, the link between CEA and sustainable development has not been realized because CEA concepts and methods have developed along two dichotomous tracks. One track views CEA as an extension of the environmental assessment (EA) process for project developments. Under this track, stressor-based (S-B) methods have been developed where the emphasis is on local, project-related stressors, their link with aquatic indicators, and the potential for environmental effects through stressor-indicator interactions. S-B methods focus on the proposed development and prediction of project-related effects. They lack a mechanism to quantify existing aquatic quality especially at scales broader than an isolated development. This limitation results in the prediction of potential effects relative to a poorly defined baseline state. The other track views CEA as a broader, regional assessment tool where effects-based (E-B) methods specialize in quantification of existing aquatic effects over broad spatial scales. However, the predictive capabilities of E-B methods are limited because they are retrospective, i.e., the stressor causing the effect is identified after the effect has been measured. When used in isolation, S-B and E-B methods do not address CEA in the context necessary for sustainable development. However, if the strengths of these approaches were integrated into a holistic framework for CEA, an operational mechanism would exist to better monitor and assess sustainable development of our aquatic resources. This paper reviews the existing conceptual basis of CEA in Canada including existing methodologies, limitations and strengths. A conceptual framework for integrating project-based and regional-based CEA is presented.     

A study on experts' judgement on the future perspective of a country: a case study for China

The future of the environment in China until the year 2050 has been forecasted through a heuristic approach. A questionnaire survey was given to a group of Japanese experts concerning 47 selected indices, including past data and reference data about other countries. The indices were related to aspects of the economy, population, food, energy, transportation, and the environment. The experts were requested to plot a graph for each index up to 2050 based on their intuition. The lines drawn by 60 experts were compiled along with their comments, and the characteristics of each index were analyzed. Different values for the indices regarding transportation and per capita GDP were forecasted by the experts, while rather similar values were obtained for those referencing population and food consumption. The respective fields of the experts were found to affect their perspectives on the future. Economists tended to show rather optimistic views, expressing a business-as-usual scenario, while engineers predicted limited growth but technological innovation.     

A framework for assessment and monitoring of small mammals in a lowland tropical forest

Development projects in tropical forests can impact biodiversity.Assessment and monitoring programs based on the principles of adaptive management assist managers to identify and reduce suchimpacts. The small mammal community is one important component ofa forest ecosystem that may be impacted by development projects. In 1996, a natural gas exploration project was initiated in a Peruvian rainforest. The Smithsonian Institution's Monitoring andAssessment of Biodiversity program cooperated with Shell Prospecting and Development Peru to establish an adaptive management program to protect the region's biodiversity. In thisarticle, we discuss the role of assessing and monitoring small mammals in relation to the natural gas project. We outline theconceptual issues involved in establishing an assessment andmonitoring program, including setting objectives, evaluating the results and making appropriate decisions. We also summarizethe steps taken to implement the small mammal assessment, provideresults from the assessment and discuss protocols to identifyappropriate species for monitoring.     

Towards a long-term integrated monitoring programme in Europe: network design in theory and practice

Long-term integrated monitoring is an important approach forinvestigating, detecting and predicing the effects ofenvironmental changes. Currently, European freshwaters,glaciers, forests and other narural and semi-natural ecosystemsand habitats are monitored by a number of networks establishedby different organisations. However, many monitoring programmeshave a narrow focus (e.g. targeting individual ecosystems) andmost have different measurement protocols and sampling design.This has resulted in poor integration of ecosystem monitoring ata European level, leading to some overlapping of efforts and alack of harmonised data to inform policy decisions. The need fora consistent pan-European long-term integrated monitoring ofterrestrial systems programme is recognised in the scientificcommunity. However, the design of such a system can be problematic, not least because of the constraints imposed bythe need to make maximum use of existing sites and networks.Based on the outcomes of the NoLIMITS project (Networking ofLong-term Integrated Monitoring in Terrestrial Systems), thisarticle reviews issues that should be addressed in designing aprogramme based on existing monitoring sites and networks. Fourmajor design issues are considered: (i) users' requirements,(ii) the need to address multiple objectives, (iii) role ofexisting sites and (iv) operational aspects.     

Dynamic Cost-Effective Reduction Strategies for Acidification in Europe: An Application to Ireland and the United Kingdom

This paper describes the application of an optimisation model for calculating cost-effective abatement strategies for the reduction of acidification in Europe while taking into account the dynamic character of soil acidification in a number of countries. Environmental constraints are defined in terms of soil quality indicators, e.g., pH, base saturation or the aluminium ion concentration in the soil solution within an optimisation model for transboundary air pollution.We present a case study for Ireland and the United Kingdom. Our results indicate that reduction of sulphur dioxide emission is more cost-effective than that of nitrogen oxides or ammonia. The reduction percentages for sulphur dioxide are highest, for two reasons: (i) marginal sulphur dioxide reduction costs are relatively low compared to marginal reduction costs of nitrogen oxides and ammonia and (ii) sulphur dioxide reduction is more effective in reducing acidification in physical terms than nitrogen oxides or ammonia abatement. Our dynamic analysis shows that a (fast) improvement of soil quality requires high emission reduction levels. These reduction levels are often higher than reduction levels that are typically deduced from the static critical loads approach. Once soil quality targets are reached, in our model, less stringent emission reductions are required to maintain the soil quality at a constant and good target level. Static critical load approaches that ignore dynamic aspects therefore may underestimate the emission reductions needed to achieve predefined soil quality targets.     

Carrots and sticks for new technology: Abating greenhouse gas emissions in a heterogeneous and uncertain world

Many governments use technology incentives as an important component of their greenhouse gas abatement strategies. These carrots are intended to encourage the initial diffusion of new, greenhouse-gas-emissions-reducing technologies, in contrast to carbon taxes and emissions trading which provide a stick designed to reduce emissions by increasing the price of high-emitting technologies for all users. Technology incentives appear attractive, but their record in practice is mixed and economic theory suggests that in the absence of market failures, they are inefficient compared to taxes and trading. This study uses an agent-based model of technology diffusion and exploratory modeling, a new technique for decision-making under conditions of extreme uncertainty, to examine the conditions under which technology incentives should be a key building block of robust climate change policies. We find that a combined strategy of carbon taxes and technology incentives, as opposed to carbon taxes alone, is the best approach to greenhouse gas emissions reductions if the social benefits of early adoption sufficiently exceed the private benefits. Such social benefits can occur when economic actors have a wide variety of cost/performance preferences for new technologies and either new technologies have increasing returns to scale or potential adopters can reduce their uncertainty about the performance of new technologies by querying the experience of other adopters. We find that if decision-makers hold even modest expectations that such social benefits are significant or that the impacts of climate change will turn out to be serious then technology incentive programs may be a promising hedge against the threat of climate change.     

Determination of landscape beauties through visual quality assessment method: a case study for Kemaliye (Erzincan/Turkey)

Kemaliye (Erzincan/Turkey) is the member of European Association of Historic Towns and Regions. The aim of this study was to reveal the visual richness of the town; to identify the relationship between landscape spatial pattern and visual quality of the landscape and to offer some suggestions for the future planning in regarding to these visual beauties. The visual quality assessment method was used in this study. The results of the study revealed three landscape types that have the highest visual quality. Among those, the highest one is urban scenery 3 (US3; VQP = 5.9400), the second is geological structure scenery 5 (GSS 5; VQP = 5.9200) and the third natural scenery 3 (NS3; VQP = 5.9133). Visual quality assessment showed that urban pattern, geological structure and natural resources of the region also have visual value. The relationships between landscape spatial pattern and visual quality of landscape indicated that certain characteristics of landscape affected the quality. For instance, as the texture level decreased in natural landscapes and as the green areas increased in geological structure, visual preferences ratio increased. Some suggestions were also made regarding the visual resources use in the region.     

“z值评价-风险评估-技术核验”统计评价模型用于低样本量能力验证——以水质监测为例

为解决低样本量下的能力验证z比分数评价结果可能偏离参加者真实能力水平的问题,建立了"z值评价-风险评估-技术核验"统计评价模型,以"一带一路"共建国家"水中铁和氟化物的检测"国际能力验证项目为例进行了验证。结果显示:样本量为14家(低样本量)、指定值与样本真值相对误差的绝对值大于4%时,铁检测项目获得"满意"评价结果的14家参加者中,5家存在数据"不准确"中/高风险;氟化物检测项目获得"满意"评价结果的11家参加者中,7家存在数据"不准确"中/高风险。技术核验反映出的突出问题是参加者未按照检测方法的要求实施质量控制措施,标准曲线绘制、试剂配制、关键仪器参数设置记录缺失,原始记录可追溯性较差。由此证实了数据风险点的存在,同时也印证了该统计评价模型的可靠性和必要性。