A Novel Method for Mapping Critical Loads Across a River Network: Application to the River Dart,Southwest England

To date, estimates of freshwater critical loads have beenbased on a single sample site within a given area, in theUK the `most sensitive' surface water in each 10 km gridsquare. The critical loads obtained are thus highlydependent on the sites chosen, and at a relatively coarsespatial resolution. To produce a higher resolutioncritical load assessment, the PEARLS (Prediction ofAcidification and Recovery on a Landscape Scale)procedure has been used to estimate critical loads acrossa large (248 km²), partially acid-sensitivecatchment in Southwest England. PEARLS utilises availablesoils and land-use databases, and sampled streamchemistry data, to derive characteristic runoffcompositions for a set of landscape types. Mixingequations are then used to calculate runoff chemistry,and subsequently critical loads, throughout the streamnetwork. Results show major spatial variability, withcritical loads lowest in streams draining peat-moorlandheadwaters, and generally increasing downstream asagricultural land contributes an increasing proportion ofrunoff. The 5th percentile freshwater critical loadfor the catchment is estimated at 0.29 keq H⁺ ha^-1yr^-1,and critical loads are exceeded for around 40% of totalstream length. The PEARLS methodology provides a novelopportunity to assess the spatial variability infreshwater critical loads, and to provide estimates ofexceedance at whole catchment scale. It has potentialapplication in the assessment of surface watersensitivity to acidification across wider areas in the UKand elsewhere.     

Critical Loads and Dynamic Modelling to Assess European Areas at Risk of Acidification and Eutrophication

European critical loads and novel dynamic modelling data have been compiled under the LRTAP Convention by the Coordination Centre for Effects. In 2000 9.8% of the pan-European and 20.8% of the EU25 ecosystem area were at risk of acidification. For eutrophication (nutrient N) the areas at risk were 30.1 and 71.2%, respectively. Dynamic modelling results reveal that 95% of the area at risk of acidification could recover by 2030 provided acid deposition is reduced according to present legislation. Insight into the timing of effects of exceedances of critical loads for nutrient N necessitates the further development of dynamic models.     

Setting Site Specific Critical Loads: An Approach using Endorsement Theory and Dempster–Shafer

There is an increasing demand from conservation agencies for site-specific critical loads (CL); unfortunately, there is often very little specific information on a site to determine the important parameters needed to calculate the CL or on the spatial location of the “designated feature” in a site. Determining the most appropriate CL therefore involves using expert judegement to make decisions with incomplete and uncertain information. Endorsement Theory (Cohen, 1985) and Dempster–Shafer statistics (Dempster, 1967; Shafer, 1976) are, respectively, a decision-theoretic and a statistical technique for reasoning under those conditions (uncertainty and incompletness). A key reason for applying these techniques is that they make expert opinion explicit and available for scrutiny. Both techniques have been applied to the problem of setting an appropriate site specific CL, using heathland sites as a case study. Inital findings are encouraging; the uncertainty in expert judgement is made explict, the end results are intuitively reasonable and the methodology apparently acceptable to decision makers.