A Novel Method for Mapping Critical Loads Across a River Network: Application to the River Dart,Southwest England

To date, estimates of freshwater critical loads have beenbased on a single sample site within a given area, in theUK the `most sensitive' surface water in each 10 km gridsquare. The critical loads obtained are thus highlydependent on the sites chosen, and at a relatively coarsespatial resolution. To produce a higher resolutioncritical load assessment, the PEARLS (Prediction ofAcidification and Recovery on a Landscape Scale)procedure has been used to estimate critical loads acrossa large (248 km²), partially acid-sensitivecatchment in Southwest England. PEARLS utilises availablesoils and land-use databases, and sampled streamchemistry data, to derive characteristic runoffcompositions for a set of landscape types. Mixingequations are then used to calculate runoff chemistry,and subsequently critical loads, throughout the streamnetwork. Results show major spatial variability, withcritical loads lowest in streams draining peat-moorlandheadwaters, and generally increasing downstream asagricultural land contributes an increasing proportion ofrunoff. The 5th percentile freshwater critical loadfor the catchment is estimated at 0.29 keq H⁺ ha^-1yr^-1,and critical loads are exceeded for around 40% of totalstream length. The PEARLS methodology provides a novelopportunity to assess the spatial variability infreshwater critical loads, and to provide estimates ofexceedance at whole catchment scale. It has potentialapplication in the assessment of surface watersensitivity to acidification across wider areas in the UKand elsewhere.     

Chemical Variation and Catchment Characteristics in High Altitude Lochs in Scotland,U.K.

Previous research has established clear relationshipsbetween the chemical composition of surface waters andthe nature of their contributing catchments. Theserelationships are particularly strong when broadenvironmental gradients are considered. However, forfreshwaters at higher altitudes, some of the catchmentprocesses that mediate chemical composition are lessinfluential than those at lower altitudes. The waterchemistry of 85 upland lochs in Scotland, U.K. is examinedto assess differences in chemical composition along arelatively short altitude gradient. Principal componentsanalysis identifies the main gradients of variationwithin the dataset. A series of digital datasets is usedto characterise the catchments according to a range ofattributes including soils and landcover. Multivariatestatistical analysis is undertaken to examine the extentto which the catchment attributes can explain variationin surface water chemistry in upland systems. Theseempirical relationships may be used in the development ofregionalisation procedures, which will allow upscaling ofknowledge from individual sites to regions.     

The Use of a GIS-based Inventory to Provide a Regional Risk Assessment of Standing Waters in Great Britain Sensitive to Acidification from Atmospheric Deposition

Previous attempts to identify regions of Britain vulnerable to acidification have used sensitivity maps based on the distributionof soils, geology, and land cover across Great Britain. Additionally, a systematic survey of freshwaters undertaken as partof the U.K. critical loads mapping programme provides a regional assessment of both sensitivity (critical loads) and, in tandem withdeposition data, potential impact (critical load exceedance). Both approaches, while useful for identifying regional patterns, do not enable estimates of the number of affected water bodies to be made. Recent EU legislation (e.g., The Water Framework Directive) requires member states to set water quality objectives for all water bodies. We developed a GIS-based inventory of standing water bodies in response to the need for legislation-driven assessments of the status of the U.K. lake population. This paper describes how the inventory can be used to assess the number of standing water bodies in Britain that are vulnerable to acid deposition (at current levels), building on the sensitivity mapping undertaken previously. Using this approach, approximately 31% of all standing waters in Great Britain (excluding the Shetlands and Orkney) larger than 0.02 ha are identified as `at risk' from acidification. Higher proportions are vulnerable in Scotland and Wales. Additionally, large numbers of standing waters in areas designated for environmental protection purposes are also vulnerable.     

Uncertainty in Estimation of Wet Deposition of Sulphur

A model is described for predicting wet deposition ofsulphur in Britain from rainfall and site measurementsof ion concentration in precipitation. This modelincludes orographic enhancement of both rainfall andion concentration. The model output is comparedagainst available measurement data. Sensitivity anduncertainty analyses are used to predict the outputuncertainty. If the stated assumptions can be shown tobe correct, the wet deposition for Britain at the 5 kmscale is accurate to ±35% across the country. Theanalyses show a larger uncertainty in central Englandand a possible bias towards underestimation of wetdeposition, the latter being of importance incalculating critical load exceedances in remote areas.     

Why Critical Loads of Acidity and N for Soils Should be Based on Pollutant Effective Concentrations Rather Than Deposition Fluxes

Numerous assumptions have been made over the past 17 years when calculating critical loads for soils, both for acidity (based upon base cation steady state mass balances (SMB)) and for N (eutrophication, based upon N mass balances), often without all the assumptions being explicitly stated. The tacit assumptions that the author believes to be implicit in the SMB approach are critically reviewed, with particular reference to upland regions where slope processes are highly significant. It is concluded that many of them cannot be justified, especially those that involve ignoring many key processes known to be important to biogeochemical cycling and soil evolution in upland catchments. The evidence presented suggests that critical loads of acidity and of N for soils should be based upon effective pollutant and, for acidity, also effective base cation deposition concentrations, rather than upon pollutant deposition fluxes. This is because of the dominant role of cation exchange equilibria, rather than weathering rate, in regulation of the pH and base status of the more acidification-sensitive soils, and because of the importance of transport down slope of base cations, alkalinity and N species.     

Detecting the signal of atmospheric N deposition in recent national-scale vegetation change across Britain

Model estimates of NO_y and NH_x deposition across Britain for 1996 (5 km square resolution) were applied as explanatory variables to account for national-scale, fine-grained changes in plant species composition between 1990 and 1998. Plant species data were recorded from up to 27 fixed plots located within a stratified random sample of 596 1 km². The response variable was a cover-weighted Ellenberg fertility score for each plot. Analyses were carried out separately for woodlands, semi-natural grasslands and heaths/bogs. Most of the variation in the botanical response variable occurred between plots within squares and so could not be explained by the model deposition data. NH_x deposition estimates accounted for significant, but small components of between 1 km² variation in the change in Ellenberg score in grasslands (5.6%) and heath/bogs (9.8%) but not woodlands. NO_y deposition estimates were not significantly associated with vegetation change. Linear models provided the best fit and the slope of the relationship was lower for heath/bogs than grasslands. Further signal attribution at sub-kilometre square scales requires the development of fine-grained models of N deposition that can be generalised across regional sampling domains.     

Detecting the signal of atmospheric N deposition in recent national-scale vegetation change across Britain

Model estimates of NO_y and NH_x deposition across Britain for 1996 (5 km square resolution) were applied as explanatory variables to account for national-scale, fine-grained changes in plant species composition between 1990 and 1998. Plant species data were recorded from up to 27 fixed plots located within a stratified random sample of 596 1 km². The response variable was a cover-weighted Ellenberg fertility score for each plot. Analyses were carried out separately for woodlands, semi-natural grasslands and heaths/bogs. Most of the variation in the botanical response variable occurred between plots within squares and so could not be explained by the model deposition data. NH_x deposition estimates accounted for significant, but small components of between 1 km² variation in the change in Ellenberg score in grasslands (5.6%) and heath/bogs (9.8%) but not woodlands. NO_y deposition estimates were not significantly associated with vegetation change. Linear models provided the best fit and the slope of the relationship was lower for heath/bogs than grasslands. Further signal attribution at sub-kilometre square scales requires the development of fine-grained models of N deposition that can be generalised across regional sampling domains.     

The Applicability of National Critical Loads Data in Assessing Designated Sites

Critical loads have been successfully used within Europe in the development of effects-based policies for pollution abatement, including the Second Sulphur Protocol and the Protocol to abate acidification, eutrophication and ground-level ozone (CLRTAP, 1979). This success has encouraged the UK Environment Agency and Conservation Agencies to use the national critical load maps as a screening tool in assessing the threats from acidification and eutrophication to designated (Natura 2000) sites. The UK maps of critical loads are based on national-scale data sets appropriate for national-scale assessments, and were never intended for use at the site-specific level. Site-based assessments are often targeted at Special Areas of Conservation, a sub-set of the UK Natura 2000 sites. The spatial data available includes the boundaries of the sites but not the location of the designated features. Ancillary data is variable from one site to another; habitat types may be described in detail with cross-reference to classes of the National Vegetation Classification (NVC: Rodwell, 1991 et seq), but information available on soils and geology is generalised and has not been related to the habitats or species being protected. Hence it can be difficult to relate the individual sites to the national maps, even where appropriate to do so. This paper examines the underlying uncertainties in the national critical load maps showing how the maps could give misleading results if used for site-specific assessments. It also includes advice on how to determine when the national data may be appropriate as a policy-tool at the site-level.     

The Development of a GIS-based Inventory of Standing Waters in Great Britain together with a Risk-based Prioritisation Protocol

An inventory of standing waters (freshwater lakes and lochs) wasderived from Ordnance Survey digital map data at a scale of 1:50 000 and represents the most comprehensive survey of its kind for Great Britain. The inventory includes 43 738 water bodies in England, Scotland, Wales and the Isle of Man and contains basic physical data such as location, surface area, perimeter and altitude. Catchment areas were computed for water bodies with a surface area larger than 1 ha from a digital terrain model (DTM) using customised routines in a geographical information system (GIS). The resulting polygons were then used to derive catchment-related information from a variety of national datasets including population density, livestock density, land cover, solid and drift geology, meteorological data, freshwater sensitivity status, acid deposition and conservation status. Using data derived from the inventory a risk-based prioritisation protocol was developed to identify standing waters at risk of harm from acidification and eutrophication. This information is required by the Environment Agency, Scottish Environmental Protection Agency and the U.K. statutory conservation bodies to co-ordinate actions and monitor change under international, European and national legislation.     

Freshwater Critical Loads in Wales

The Steady State Water Chemistry (SSWC) modeland the Diatom model have been used to calculate criticalloads for acidity using annual mean chemistry for 102 acidupland streams in Wales sampled as part of the Welsh AcidWaters Survey (WAWS) in 1995. Diatom critical loads werelower than SSWC values reflecting the higher effective[ANC]_limit of the Diatom model compared to the[ANC]_limit of zero used in the SSWC model. The WAWSstream sites were all located within 41 10 × 10 km squares andeach square was assigned the lowest critical load value fromamongst the sites located within it. Comparison with valuesassigned under the UK national critical loads mappingprogramme (UKCLMAP) showed that WAWS critical loads were lowerthan UKCLMAP values in approximately 40% of squares.Differences in critical load class were variable, but exceeded2 keq ha^-1 yr^-1 in up to a maximum of seven squares.It cannot be assumed, therefore, that reducing acid depositionto the currently mapped UKCLMAP critical load will protect allstreams occurring within a given 10 × 10 km grid square inWales. The limited number of sample sites means that even inthose squares where all WAWS sites will be protected, theremay be other, more acid sensitive freshwaters with lowercritical loads. This has important implications for theinterpretation and use of critical loads data for regional andlocal environmental planning.     

Element Removal in Harvested Tree Biomass: Scenarios for Critical Loads in Wallonia,South Belgium

The critical load concept is nowwidely used as a tool for developing emissioncontrol policies in Europe. As a signatorycountry of the Convention of Long-RangeTransboundary Air Pollution, critical loads foracidity, nutrient nitrogen, nitrogen and sulphurhave been calculated for the Flemish and Walloonregions in Belgium. This paper describes themethodology used for estimating critical loadsfor forest soils in the Walloon region accordingto the Steady-State Mass Balance equations. As anexample the methodology was applied to thecatchment `Waroneu', situated in a sensitive areaof the Haute Ardenne. Main input parameters tothe equations were derived from precipitation andrunoff data of the catchment study. Improvedestimates of nitrogen uptake (Nu) and base cationuptake (BCu) were obtained by intensive samplingof Picea abies and Quercus roburtrees. Nutrient contents (Ca, Mg, K, N) andnutrient to nitrogen ratios of Picea abiesreflected the poor soil quality at a site withhigh N deposition. Quercus robur nutrientcontents increased from stem to higher orderbranches with a high proportion of nutrientslocated in the bark. However the simulation ofstem only harvesting had a minor effect oncritical loads. Measured wood densities werelower than reported literature values with a maineffect on Nu and BCu estimates. The use ofrecommended default values and/or data derivedfrom the experimental site resulted in a widerange of critical loads, some of which werelargely overestimated. Results demonstrated theimportance of site specific data for criticalload calculations.     

Application of Static Critical Load Models for Acidity to High Mountain Lakes in Europe

Critical load models for acidityprovide a measure of the sensitivity of surfacewaters to acid deposition, and can be used todetermine critical load exceedance and potentiallong-term harmful effects. Three static models,the Steady-State Water Chemistry model, diatommodel and First-order Acidity Balance model, arehere applied to 11 high mountain lakes in Norway,Scotland, the Alps, the Pyrenees and the Tatras.Between five and seven of the lakes show criticalload exceedance, depending on the model used.Nitrogen as well as sulphur deposition isimportant in causing exceedance. Since soil andvegetation cover are generally sparse, geologyand lake retention time appear to be key factorsin the determination of critical load. Retentionof nitrogen is observed, but it is unclearwhether this occurs within the lake or theterrestrial part of the catchment.     

The Link Between the Exceedance of Acidity Critical Loads for Freshwaters,Current Chemical Status and Biological Damage: A Re-Interpretation

Critical loads have for several years been employed bypolicymakers to aid in the development of strategies for aciddeposition abatement. They provide an effects-based approachwhereby an acid deposition flux greater than the critical load(known as critical load exceedance) implies that long-termharmful effects on a selected target organism will occur.Implicit in this approach are two assumptions: first, theexceedance of a critical load will harm the target organism,and second, the severity of biological impact is related to themagnitude of exceedance. However, static models give noindication of when the predicted damage might occur. One suchmodel, the Steady-State Water Chemistry (SSWC) model, employs aseries of empirical relationships to derive the pre-industrial,baseline leaching rate of base cations from measured waterchemistry using the so-called `F-factor'. The SSWC model setsthe critical load relative to pre-industrial base cationleaching (a permanent buffer of acid deposition) and a selectedacid neutralizing capacity (ANC) value which corresponds with aknown likelihood of damage to a biological target organism.Here we interpret the meaning of critical load exceedance as aprediction of steady-state ANC, and explore the relationshipbetween exceedance of the critical load and current chemistry. We demonstrate that a critical loadexceedance with the SSWC model does not necessarily indicatethat the critical chemical threshold (zero ANC) has alreadybeen crossed, and there may be no correlation betweenexceedance and biological status. A reformulation of the SSWCmodel is proposed which provides a direct link between currentdeposition and current chemical conditions, and is thereforemore likely to indicate current biological damage. Thereformulation illustrates the discrepancy between currentchemical status and that predicted by the SSWC model atsteady-state, which is a function of the `F-factor'.     

Using Multiple Chemical Criteria for Critical Loads of Acidity in Maritime Regions

Critical loads have become a well-establishedpart of the work programme of the UnitedNations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) Conventionon Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP). Thelinking of ecosystem response to deposition level is thecentral principal of the critical loads approach. Foreach ecosystem, a biological indicator is chosen, asuitable chemical criterion selected and a criticalchemical limit assigned. The Bc:Al ratio is the mostwidely used chemical criterion for setting criticalloads. However, critical loads based on this criterionare very sensitive to marine deposition. In regions whichreceive high depositions of marine-derived base cations,such as the Republic of Ireland (ROI) and the UnitedKingdom (UK), critical loads based on the Bc:Al criterionwill inevitably be high. Therefore, it is proposed thatcritical loads are estimated using multiple chemicalcriteria with appropriate critical limits to protect thechosen biological indicators. The range of publishedchemical criteria have been applied to the ROI and theUK. The chemical criterion corresponding to the mostsensitive critical load have been mapped and thecontribution of each to the final maps investigated. Thesimulations indicate that the most sensitive criteria forsetting critical loads are based on specifying critical Hor Al concentrations. However, the choice of critical limits andmodel parameters will ultimately effect the criticalloads. Therefore, it is important that appropriate criticallimits are chosen to protect the biological indicator andreceptor ecosystem from long-term damage.     

Spatially Disaggregated Inventories of Soil NO and N2O Emissions for Great Britain

Estimates of soil N₂O and NOemissions at regional and country scales arehighly uncertain, because the most widely usedmethodologies are based on few data, they do notinclude all sources and do not account forspatial and seasonal variability. To improveunderstanding of the spatial distribution of soilNO and N₂O emissions we have developedsimple multi-linear regression models based onpublished field studies from temperate climates.The models were applied to create spatialinventories at the 5 km² scale of soil NOand N₂O emissions for Great Britain. The N₂O regression model described soilN₂O emissions as a function of soil N input,soil water content, soil temperature and land useand provided an annual N₂O emission of 128 kt N₂O-N yr^-1. Emission rates largerthan 12 kg N₂O-N ha^-1 yr^-1 werecalculated for the high rainfall grassland areasin the west of Great Britain.Soil NO emissions were calculated using tworegression models, which described NO emissionsas a function of soil N input with and without afunction for the water filled pore space. Thetotal annual emissions from both methods, 66 and7 kt NO-N yr^-1, respectively, span the rangeof previous estimates for Great Britain.     

Critical Loads – Is There A Need For A New Concept?

The concept of critical loads has been an important andsuccessful tool for the development of control strategiesfor transboundary air pollution in Europe. The use of theconcept has led us to a situation where very few areas inEurope will have an exceedance of critical loads foracidification in 2010, indicating that the benefits offurther control acidifying substances will be lessuseful. The critical loads concept does not, however,take into account the large benefits of further controlin damaged systems but where critical loads are nolonger exceeded. In this paper we discuss the importanceof widening the critical loads concept to include thesebenefits and we propose an additional effect-relatedmeasure, Dynamic Impact Analysis, to be included infurther control strategies and assessments. With such aconcept the actual situation and its further developmentwill be included in assessments and control strategies.     

Application of spatial and non-spatial data analysis in determination of the factors that impact municipal solid waste generation rates in Turkey

In studies focusing on the factors that impact solid waste generation habits and rates, the potential spatial dependency in solid waste generation data is not considered in relating the waste generation rates to its determinants. In this study, spatial dependency is taken into account in determination of the significant socio-economic and climatic factors that may be of importance for the municipal solid waste (MSW) generation rates in different provinces of Turkey. Simultaneous spatial autoregression (SAR) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models are used for the spatial data analyses. Similar to ordinary least squares regression (OLSR), regression coefficients are global in SAR model. In other words, the effect of a given independent variable on a dependent variable is valid for the whole country. Unlike OLSR or SAR, GWR reveals the local impact of a given factor (or independent variable) on the waste generation rates of different provinces. Results show that provinces within closer neighborhoods have similar MSW generation rates. On the other hand, this spatial autocorrelation is not very high for the exploratory variables considered in the study. OLSR and SAR models have similar regression coefficients. GWR is useful to indicate the local determinants of MSW generation rates. GWR model can be utilized to plan waste management activities at local scale including waste minimization, collection, treatment, and disposal. At global scale, the MSW generation rates in Turkey are significantly related to unemployment rate and asphalt-paved roads ratio. Yet, significances of these variables may diminish at local scale for some provinces. At local scale, different factors may be important in affecting MSW generation rates.     

Base Cation Losses from a Coniferous Catchment in Central Ontario,Canada

Long-term monitoring of a predominantlyconiferous catchment (PC-1) in central Ontario has enabledmass budgets of base cations to be estimated between 1983and 1998. During this period, sulphur deposition decreasedby approximately 30%, although this region still receivesacid deposition that exceeds the critical load with respectto acidity for forest soils. Between 1983 and 1998 therewas a net loss of 76.3 kg ha^-1 Ca and 13.7 kg ha^-1Mg from PC-1, and a net retention of K of 55.7 kg ha^-1. A net loss of Ca and Mg occurred every year during the studyperiod (except 1986/87 for Mg), although annual losses of Caand Mg have been generally lower in recent years. On anannual basis, net losses of Ca and Mg were extremelyvariable and were strongly related to export of SO₄,which in turn appeared to be strongly influenced by climatefactors. Measured losses of Ca and Mg over the 16-yearperiod represented 37% and 59% of their respectiveexchangeable pools measured in the upland soils in 1983.These values probably overestimate base cation losses fromthe upland however, because losses from organic soils in thecatchment were proportionately greater during yearsfollowing El Niño events. There was no change in basal areabetween 1983 and 1998, although there was a shift towardless nutrient-demanding species (white pine, hemlock). Pools of Ca and Mg in tree biomass are approximately doubletheir exchangeable pools in podzols, and so losses from soilmay be offset by changes in forest structure (size,composition) in the short-term (decades). If net losses ofCa and Mg continue due to harvesting and/or acid depositionand estimates of weathering and exchangeable pools arecorrect, then the long-term sustainability of the uplandforest at PC-1 must be in doubt.     

Critical Loads and Dynamic Modelling to Assess European Areas at Risk of Acidification and Eutrophication

European critical loads and novel dynamic modelling data have been compiled under the LRTAP Convention by the Coordination Centre for Effects. In 2000 9.8% of the pan-European and 20.8% of the EU25 ecosystem area were at risk of acidification. For eutrophication (nutrient N) the areas at risk were 30.1 and 71.2%, respectively. Dynamic modelling results reveal that 95% of the area at risk of acidification could recover by 2030 provided acid deposition is reduced according to present legislation. Insight into the timing of effects of exceedances of critical loads for nutrient N necessitates the further development of dynamic models.