Changing Speed-VMT Distributions: The Effects on Emissions Inventories and Conformity

ABSTRACT

The emissions factor modeling component of the motor vehicle emissions inventory (MVEI) modeling suite is currently being revised by the California Air Resources Board (CARB). One of the proposed changes in modeling philosophy is a shift from using link-based travel activity data to trip-based travel data for preparing mobile emissions inventories. Also as part of the revisions, new speed correction factors (SCFs) will be developed by CARB for the revised model. The new SCFs will be derived from vehicle emissions on 15 new driving cycles, each constructed to represent a typical trip at a specific average speed. This paper discusses how the new SCFs will affect transportation conformity and emissions inventory development, and evaluates the differences in total emissions produced by trip-based and link-based distributions of speed and vehicle miles of travel (VMT).

We simulated both link-based and trip-based speed-VMT distributions using travel data from the Sacramento and San Diego travel demand models. On the basis of the simulation results, there is reason to expect that mobile emissions inventories constructed using the proposed trip-based philosophy will differ markedly from those constructed in the current manner. Noting that results may vary by region, increases are expected in the CO and HC inventory levels, with concomitant decreases in the NO_x mobile emissions inventories.     

A comparative analysis of using trip-based versus link-based traffic data for regional mobile source emissions estimation

The current method used for calculating vehicle emissions integrates travel data and associated vehicle emission factors. Travel data from traditional travel demand models are normally link-based (e.g., volumes on roadway segments), while California emission factors are trip-based (i.e., average emission factors over an entire trip), creating a mismatch in the modeling interface. Using dynamic simulation for trip assignment, we present a new modeling framework that consistently provides both trip-based and link-based VMT-speed distributions. Using the Sacramento Metropolitan Area and Kern County in California, we demonstrate the feasibility of this new method and quantify the effects of using trip-based versus link-based travel data on regional peak period emission inventories. The comparison results indicate that for the base scenario in both studied regions, the link-based method generally results in higher emissions than the trip-based method. The sensitivities of the link and trip-based methods to road network variations also appear dissimilar. The link-based emissions are more sensitive to facility-related changes, while the trip-based emissions are more sensitive to demand-related changes. This suggests that greater care may need to be taken to specify the effects of this modeling interface issue within the transportation conformity process and subsequent mobile emissions analysis.     

An urban emissions inventory for South America and its application in numerical modeling of atmospheric chemical composition at local and regional scales

This work describes the development of an urban vehicle emissions inventory for South America, based on the analysis and aggregation of available inventories for major cities, with emphasis on its application in regional atmospheric chemistry modeling. Due to the limited number of available local inventories, urban emissions were extrapolated based on the correlation between city vehicle density and mobile source emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (NOx). Emissions were geographically distributed using a methodology that delimits urban areas using high spatial resolution remote sensing products. This numerical algorithm enabled a more precise representation of urban centers. The derived regional inventory was evaluated by analyzing the performance of a chemical weather forecast model in relation to observations of CO, NOx and O₃ in two different urban areas, São Paulo and Belo Horizonte. The gas mixing ratios simulated using the proposed regional inventory show good agreement with observations, consistently representing their hourly and daily variability. These results show that the integration of municipal inventories in a regional emissions map and their precise distribution in fine scale resolutions are important tools in regional atmospheric chemistry modeling.     

Comparison of life-cycle energy and emissions footprints of passenger transportation in metropolitan regions

A comparative life-cycle energy and emissions (greenhouse gas, CO, NO_X, SO₂, PM₁₀, and VOCs) inventory is created for three U.S. metropolitan regions (San Francisco, Chicago, and New York City). The inventory captures both vehicle operation (direct fuel or electricity consumption) and non-operation components (e.g., vehicle manufacturing, roadway maintenance, infrastructure operation, and material production among others). While urban transportation inventories have been continually improved, little information exists identifying the particular characteristics of metropolitan passenger transportation and why one region may differ from the next. Using travel surveys and recently developed transportation life-cycle inventories, metropolitan inventories are constructed and compared. Automobiles dominate total regional performance accounting for 86–96% of energy consumption and emissions. Comparing system-wide averages, New York City shows the lowest end-use energy and greenhouse gas footprint compared to San Francisco and Chicago and is influenced by the larger share of transit ridership. While automobile fuel combustion is a large component of emissions, diesel rail, electric rail, and ferry service can also have strong contributions. Additionally, the inclusion of life-cycle processes necessary for any transportation mode results in significant increases (as large as 20 times that of vehicle operation) for the region. In particular, emissions of CO₂ from cement production used in concrete throughout infrastructure, SO₂ from electricity generation in non-operational components (vehicle manufacturing, electricity for infrastructure materials, and fuel refining), PM₁₀ in fugitive dust releases in roadway construction, and VOCs from asphalt result in significant additional inventory. Private and public transportation are disaggregated as well as off-peak and peak travel times. Furthermore, emissions are joined with healthcare and greenhouse gas monetized externalities to evaluate the societal costs of passenger transportation in each region. Results are validated against existing studies. The dominating contribution of automobile end-use energy consumption and emissions is discussed and strategies for improving regional performance given private travel's disproportionate share are identified.     

Real-world vehicle emissions: a summary of the Eleventh Coordinating Research Council On-Road Vehicle Emissions Workshop

The Coordinating Research Council (CRC) held its eleventh workshop in March 2001, focusing on results from the most recent real-world vehicle emissions research. We summarize the presentations from researchers engaged in improving our understanding of the contribution of mobile sources to ambient air quality and emission inventories. Participants in the workshop discussed efforts to improve mobile source emission models and emission inventories, the role of on-board diagnostic (OBD) systems in inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs, particulate matter (PM) emissions, contributions of diesel vehicles to the emission inventory, on-road emissions measurements, fuel effects, unregulated emissions, and microscale and modal emission models, as well as topics for future research.     

Air emission inventories in North America: a critical assessment

Although emission inventories are the foundation of air quality management and have supported substantial improvements in North American air quality, they have a number of shortcomings that can potentially lead to ineffective air quality management strategies. Major reductions in the largest emissions sources have made accurate inventories of previously minor sources much more important to the understanding and improvement of local air quality. Changes in manufacturing processes, industry types, vehicle technologies, and metropolitan infrastructure are occurring at an increasingly rapid pace, emphasizing the importance of inventories that reflect current conditions. New technologies for measuring source emissions and ambient pollutant concentrations, both at the point of emissions and from remote platforms, are providing novel approaches to collecting data for inventory developers. Advances in information technologies are allowing data to be shared more quickly, more easily, and processed and compared in novel ways that can speed the development of emission inventories. Approaches to improving quantitative measures of inventory uncertainty allow air quality management decisions to take into account the uncertainties associated with emissions estimates, providing more accurate projections of how well alternative strategies may work. This paper discusses applications of these technologies and techniques to improve the accuracy, timeliness, and completeness of emission inventories across North America and outlines a series of eight recommendations aimed at inventory developers and air quality management decision-makers to improve emission inventories and enable them to support effective air quality management decisions for the foreseeable future.     

Air Emission Inventories in North America: A Critical Assessment

Abstract

Although emission inventories are the foundation of air quality management and have supported substantial improvements in North American air quality, they have a number of shortcomings that can potentially lead to ineffective air quality management strategies. Major reductions in the largest emissions sources have made accurate inventories of previously minor sources much more important to the understanding and improvement of local air quality. Changes in manufacturing processes, industry types, vehicle technologies, and metropolitan infrastructure are occurring at an increasingly rapid pace, emphasizing the importance of inventories that reflect current conditions. New technologies for measuring source emissions and ambient pollutant concentrations, both at the point of emissions and from remote platforms, are providing novel approaches to collecting data for inventory developers. Advances in information technologies are allowing data to be shared more quickly, more easily, and processed and compared in novel ways that can speed the development of emission inventories. Approaches to improving quantitative measures of inventory uncertainty allow air quality management decisions to take into account the uncertainties associated with emissions estimates, providing more accurate projections of how well alternative strategies may work. This paper discusses applications of these technologies and techniques to improve the accuracy, timeliness, and completeness of emission inventories across North America and outlines a series of eight recommendations aimed at inventory developers and air quality management decision-makers to improve emission inventories and enable them to support effective air quality management decisions for the foreseeable future.     

Real-world vehicle emissions: a summary of the tenth coordinating research council on-road vehicle emissions workshop

The Coordinating Research Council (CRC) held its tenth workshop in March 2000, focusing on results from the most recent real-world vehicle emissions research. In this paper, we summarize the presentations from researchers who are engaged in improving our understanding of the contribution of mobile sources to emission inventories. Participants in the workshop discussed efforts to improve mobile source emission models and emission inventories, results from gas- and particle-phase emissions studies from spark-ignition and diesel-powered vehicles, new methods for measuring mobile source emissions, improvements in vehicle emission control systems (ECSs), and evaluation of motor vehicle inspection/maintenance (I/M) programs, as well as topics for future research.     

Revised estimates of construction activity and emissions: Effects on ozone and elemental carbon concentrations in southern California

Emissions from diesel-powered construction equipment are an important source of nitrogen oxides (NO_x) and particulate matter (PM). A new emission inventory for construction equipment emissions is developed based on surveys of diesel fuel use; the revised inventory is compared to current emission inventories. California's OFFROAD model estimates are 4.5 and 3.1 times greater, for NO_x and PM respectively, than the fuel-based estimates developed here. The most relevant uncertainties are the overall amount of construction activity/diesel fuel use, exhaust emission factors for PM and NO_x, and the spatial allocation of emissions to county level and finer spatial scales. Construction permit data were used in this study to estimate spatial distributions of emissions; the resulting distribution is well correlated with population growth. An air quality model was used to assess the impacts of revised emission estimates. Increases of up to 15 ppb in predicted peak ozone concentrations were found in southern California. Elemental carbon and fine particle mass concentrations were in better agreement with observations using revised emission estimates, whereas negative bias in predictions of ambient NO_x concentrations increased.     

Real-World Vehicle Emissions: A Summary of the Tenth Coordinating Research Council On-Road Vehicle Emissions Workshop

ABSTRACT

The Coordinating Research Council (CRC) held its tenth workshop in March 2000, focusing on results from the most recent real-world vehicle emissions research. In this paper, we summarize the presentations from researchers who are engaged in improving our understanding of the contribution of mobile sources to emission inventories. Participants in the workshop discussed efforts to improve mobile source emission models and emission inventories, results from gas- and particle-phase emissions studies from spark-ignition and diesel-powered vehicles, new methods for measuring mobile source emissions, improvements in vehicle emission control systems (ECSs), and evaluation of motor vehicle inspection/maintenance (I/M) programs, as well as topics for future research.     

Real-World Vehicle Emissions: A Summary of the Sixth Coordinating Research Council On-Road Vehicle Emissions Workshop

The Coordinating Research Council (CRC) has conducted a series of workshops on real-world vehicle emissions. This article summarizes findings from the most recent research regarding on-road emissions from mobile sources, presented at the CRC workshop held in March 1996. Among the topics discussed were efforts to improve and update emission models, results from field studies designed to understand the contribution of mobile sources to emission inventories, results from gas-and particle-phase emissions studies from in-use motor vehicles, and areas of future research.

The Sixth Coordinating Research Council (CRC) On-Road Vehicle Emissions Workshop was held March 18-20, 1996, in San Diego, CA. More than 160 representatives from academia, industry, government, and consulting firms in the United States, Canada, and Europe participated in the three-day meeting. The objective of the Workshop was to present the most recent information from research programs on:

mobile source contributions to the emission inventory

emission factor models and activity data

model comparison and development

emission reduction programs

new developments in remote sensing

studies of on-road vehicle exhaust and non-tailpipe emissions

off-cycle Federal Test Procedure (FTP) studies and revisions to the FTP

particle emissions from the light- and heavy-duty fleets

future research needs

Nine sessions were devoted to vehicle emissions models, improvements to the emission inventory, on-road and tunnel studies, off-cycle emissions, non-tailpipe and diesel emissions, emission reduction programs, and remote sensing. Overall workshop coordination was provided by Timothy Belian and the CRC staff, with Steven Cadle and Robert Gorse serving as cochairmen. Individual session chairmen were Brent Bailey (National Renewable Energy Laboratory), Mark Carlock (California Air Resources Board), Harold Haskew (General Motors), Kenneth Knapp and Philip Lorang (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency), Douglas Lawson (Colorado State University), Alan Lloyd (Desert Research Institute), Robert Slott (Shell Oil), and Timothy Truex (University of California, Riverside). In addition, during the Workshop, Lesha Hrynchuk of the California Air Resources Board (CARB) presented a hands-on demonstration using the Internet to obtain motor vehicle emissions information from groups throughout the world. The complete Workshop proceedings are available from the Coordinating Research Council, 219 Perimeter Center Parkway, Atlanta, GA 30346; phone: (770) 396-3400; fax: (770) 396-3404. The following summarizes each session and includes a short synopsis of all the papers that were presented.     

Methods of characterizing the distribution of exhaust emissions from light-duty, gasoline-powered motor vehicles in the U.S. fleet

Mobile sources significantly contribute to ambient concentrations of airborne particulate matter (PM). Source apportionment studies for PM10 (PM < or = 10 microm in aerodynamic diameter) and PM2.5 (PM < or = 2.5 microm in aerodynamic diameter) indicate that mobile sources can be responsible for over half of the ambient PM measured in an urban area. Recent source apportionment studies attempted to differentiate between contributions from gasoline and diesel motor vehicle combustion. Several source apportionment studies conducted in the United States suggested that gasoline combustion from mobile sources contributed more to ambient PM than diesel combustion. However, existing emission inventories for the United States indicated that diesels contribute more than gasoline vehicles to ambient PM concentrations. A comprehensive testing program was initiated in the Kansas City metropolitan area to measure PM emissions in the light-duty, gasoline-powered, on-road mobile source fleet to provide data for PM inventory and emissions modeling. The vehicle recruitment design produced a sample that could represent the regional fleet, and by extension, the national fleet. All vehicles were recruited from a stratified sample on the basis of vehicle class (car, truck) and model-year group. The pool of available vehicles was drawn primarily from a sample of vehicle owners designed to represent the selected demographic and geographic characteristics of the Kansas City population. Emissions testing utilized a portable, light-duty chassis dynamometer with vehicles tested using the LA-92 driving cycle, on-board emissions measurement systems, and remote sensing devices. Particulate mass emissions were the focus of the study, with continuous and integrated samples collected. In addition, sample analyses included criteria gases (carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, nitric oxide/nitrogen dioxide, hydrocarbons), air toxics (speciated volatile organic compounds), and PM constituents (elemental/organic carbon, metals, semi-volatile organic compounds). Results indicated that PM emissions from the in-use fleet varied by up to 3 orders of magnitude, with emissions generally increasing for older model-year vehicles. The study also identified a strong influence of ambient temperature on vehicle PM mass emissions, with rates increasing with decreasing temperatures.     

Real-world vehicle emissions: a summary of the Ninth Coordinating Research Council On-Road Vehicle Emissions Workshop

In April 1999, the Coordinating Research Council sponsored a workshop focusing on our understanding of real-world emissions from motor vehicles. This summary presents the latest information on in-use light- and heavy-duty vehicle tailpipe and evaporative emissions, the effects of fuels on emissions, field programs designed to understand the contribution of mobile sources to emission inventories, efforts to evaluate and improve mobile source emission models, progress of vehicle inspection/maintenance programs, and topics for future research. While significant progress has been made in understanding in-use vehicle emissions, further improvements are necessary. Moreover, the impact of current and future changes in emission control technologies and control programs will have to be monitored for effectiveness and incorporated into the emission factor models.     

Emissions of gases and particles from biomass burning during the 20th century using satellite data and an historical reconstruction

A new dataset of emissions of trace gases and particles resulting from biomass burning has been developed for the historical and the recent period (1900–2005). The purpose of this work is to provide a consistent gridded emissions dataset of atmospheric chemical species from 1900 to 2005 for chemistry-climate simulations. The inventory is built in two steps. First, fire emissions are estimated for the recent period (1997–2005) using satellite products (GBA2000 burnt areas and ATSR fire hotspots); the temporal and spatial distribution of the CO₂ emissions for the 1997–2005 period is estimated through a calibration of ATSR fire hotspots. The historical inventory, covering the 1900–2000 period on a decadal basis, is derived from the historical reconstruction of burned areas from Mouillot and Field (2005). The historical emissions estimates are forced, for each main ecosystem, to agree with the recent inventory estimates, ensuring consistency between past and recent emissions.The methodology used for estimating the fire emissions is discussed, together with the time evolution of biomass burning emissions during the 20th century, first at the global scale and then for specific regions. The results are compared with the distributions provided by other inventories and results of inverse modeling studies.     

On-road facility to measure and characterize emissions from heavy-duty diesel vehicles

In response to lingering concerns about the utility of dynamometer data for mobile source emissions modeling, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has constructed an on-road test facility to characterize the real-world emissions of heavy-duty trucks. The facility was designed to effectively demonstrate the full range of vehicle operation and to measure the emissions produced. Since it began operation, the facility has been continuously upgraded to incorporate state-of-the-art technology. Its potential uses include collecting modal emissions data, validating dynamometer test parameters and results, and demonstrating new emission control technologies.     

Improving the accuracy of emission inventories with a machine-learning approach and investigating transferability across cities

ABSTRACT

This study presents a novel method for integrating the output of a microscopic emission modeling approach with a regional traffic assignment model in order to achieve an accurate greenhouse gas (GHG, in CO_2-eq) emission estimate for transportation in large metropolitan regions. The CLustEr-based Validated Emission Recalculation (CLEVER) method makes use of instantaneous speed data and link-based traffic characteristics in order to refine on-road GHG inventories. The CLEVER approach first clusters road links based on aggregate traffic characteristics, then assigns representative emission factors (EFs), calibrated using the output of microscopic emission modeling. In this paper, cluster parameters including number and feature vector were calibrated with different sets of roads within the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), while assessing the spatial transferability of the algorithm. Using calibrated cluster sets, morning peak GHG emissions in the GTA were estimated to be 2,692 tons, which is lower than the estimate generated by a traditional, average speed approach (3,254 tons). Link-level comparison between CLEVER and the average speed approach demonstrates that GHG emissions for uncongested links were overestimated by the average speed model. In contrast, at intersections and ramps with more congested links and interrupted traffic flow, the average speed model underestimated GHG emissions. This proposed approach is able to capture variations in traffic conditions compared to the traditional average speed approach, without the need to conduct traffic simulation.

Implications: A reliable traffic emissions estimate is necessary to evaluate transportation policies. Currently, accuracy and transferability are major limitations in modeling regional emissions. This paper develops a hybrid modeling approach (CLEVER) to bridge between computational efficiency and estimation accuracy. Using a k-means clustering algorithm with street-level traffic data, CLEVER generates representative emission factors for each cluster. The approach was validated against the baseline (output of a microscopic emission model), demonstrating transferability across different cities .     

Developing a high-resolution vehicular emission inventory by integrating an emission model and a traffic model: Part 1--Modeling fuel consumption and emissions based on speed and vehicle-specific power

To improve the accuracy and applicability of vehicular emission models, this study proposes a speed and vehicle-specific power (VSP) modeling method to estimate vehicular emissions and fuel consumption using data gathered by a portable emissions monitoring system (PEMS). The PEMS data were categorized into discrete speed-VSP bins on the basis of the characteristics of vehicle driving conditions and emissions in Chinese cities. Speed-VSP modal average rates of emissions (or fuel consumption) and the time spent in the corresponding speed-VSP bins were then used to calculate the total trip emissions (or fuel consumption) and emission factors (or fuel economy) under specific average link speeds. The model approach was validated by comparing it against measured data with prediction errors within 20% for trip emissions and link-speed-based emission factors. This analysis is based on the data of light-duty gasoline vehicles in China; however, this research approach could be generalized to other vehicle fleets in other countries. This modeling method could also be coupled with traffic demand models to establish high-resolution emissions inventories and evaluate the impacts of traffic-related emission control measures.     

Real-World Vehicle Emissions: A Summary of the Ninth Coordinating Research Council On-Road Vehicle Emissions Workshop

ABSTRACT

In April 1999, the Coordinating Research Council sponsored a workshop focusing on our understanding of real-world emissions from motor vehicles. This summary presents the latest information on in-use light- and heavy-duty vehicle tailpipe and evaporative emissions, the effects of fuels on emissions, field programs designed to understand the contribution of mobile sources to emission inventories, efforts to evaluate and improve mobile source emission models, progress of vehicle inspection/ maintenance programs, and topics for future research. While significant progress has been made in understanding in-use vehicle emissions, further improvements are necessary. Moreover, the impact of current and future changes in emission control technologies and control programs will have to be monitored for effectiveness and incorporated into the emission factor models.     

Development of a United States-Mexico Emissions Inventory for the Big Bend Regional Aerosol and Visibility Observational (BRAVO) Study

The Big Bend Regional Aerosol and Visibility Observational (BRAVO) Study was commissioned to investigate the sources of haze at Big Bend National Park in southwest Texas. The modeling domain of the BRAVO Study includes most of the continental United States and Mexico. The BRAVO emissions inventory was constructed from the 1999 National Emission Inventory for the United States, modified to include finer-resolution data for Texas and 13 U.S. states in close proximity. The first regional-scale Mexican emissions inventory designed for air-quality modeling applications was developed for 10 northern Mexican states, the Tula Industrial Park in the state of Hidalgo, and the Popocatépetl volcano in the state of Puebla. Emissions data were compiled from numerous sources, including the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the Texas Natural Resources Conservation Commission (now Texas Commission on Environmental Quality), the Eastern Research Group, the Minerals Management Service, the Instituto Nacional de Ecología, and the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica Geografía y Informática. The inventory includes emissions for CO, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, volatile organic compounds (VOCs), ammonia, particulate matter (PM) < 10 microm in aerodynamic diameter, and PM < 2.5 microm in aerodynamic diameter. Wind-blown dust and biomass burning were not included in the inventory, although high concentrations of dust and organic PM attributed to biomass burning have been observed at Big Bend National Park. The SMOKE modeling system was used to generate gridded emissions fields for use with the Regional Modeling System for Aerosols and Deposition (REMSAD) and the Community Multiscale Air Quality model modified with the Model of Aerosol Dynamics, Reaction, Ionization and Dissolution (CMAQ-MADRID). The compilation of the inventory, supporting model input data, and issues encountered during the development of the inventory are documented. A comparison of the BRAVO emissions inventory for Mexico with other emerging Mexican emission inventories illustrates their uncertainty.     

Effects of engine speed and accessory load on idling emissions from heavy-duty diesel truck engines

A nontrivial portion of heavy-duty vehicle emissions of NOx and particulate matter (PM) occurs during idling. Regulators and the environmental community are interested in curtailing truck idling emissions, but current emissions models do not characterize them accurately, and little quantitative data exist to evaluate the relative effectiveness of various policies. The objectives of this study were to quantify the effect of accessory loading and engine speed on idling emissions from a properly functioning, modern, heavy-duty diesel truck and to compare these results with data from earlier model year vehicles. It was found that emissions during idling varied greatly as a function of engine model year, engine speed, and accessory load conditions. For the 1999 model year Class 8 truck tested, raising the engine speed from 600 to 1050 rpm and turning on the air conditioning resulted in a 2.5-fold increase in NOx emissions in grams per hour, a 2-fold increase in CO2 emissions, and a 5-fold increase in CO emissions while idling. On a grams per gallon fuel basis, NOx emissions while idling were approximately twice as high as those at 55 mph. The CO2 emissions at the two conditions were closer. The NOx emissions from the 1999 truck while idling with air conditioning running were slightly more than those of two 1990 model year trucks under equivalent conditions, and the hydrocarbon (HC) and CO emissions were significantly lower. It was found that the NOx emissions used in the California Air Resources Board's (CARB) EMFAC2000 and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) MOBILE5b emissions inventory models were lower than those measured in all of the idling conditions tested on the 1999 truck.