The impact of flooding on property prices: A repeat-sales approach

In this paper we use a repeat-sales model to analyse the price path of properties affected by flooding in England between 1995 and 2014. Our dataset contains information on 4.8 million houses with at least one repeat-sale. This database is merged with high-definition GIS data delineating the spatial extent of all recorded flood incidents in England covering a total area of 2,654 km². Our results show that immediately after a flood event the price of property in a postcode entirely inundated by inland flooding is on average 24.9% lower than non-flooded property, whereas for property in a postcode entirely inundated by coastal flooding the price reduction is 21.1%. Nonetheless, we find that this discount is short-lived and the discount is no longer statistically significant for properties affected by inland flooding after 5 years, which falls to just 4 years for properties affected by coastal flooding. For lower-priced properties however, the post-flood price discount can be observed up to 6–7 years for both inland and coastal flooding. The magnitude of the impact also depends on the characteristics of the properties, the characteristics of the flood and the existence of flood protection assets.     

Variable predation risk and the dynamic nature of mosquito antipredator responses to chemical alarm cues

Summary. Predation is a pervasive selective agent highly variable in space and time. Due to the costs associated with antipredator responses, prey would be at a selective advantage if they respond to predation threats with an intensitfy matching the threat posed by the predator. Many aquatic organisms have been shown to use chemical alarm cues present in the water to assess the level of risk in their environment. This includes mosquito larvae which show antipredator responses to conspecific alarm cues. In this study, we investigated the nature of the responses of larval mosquitoes Culex restuans to those cues. In our initial observations, we showed pond/population differences in the response intensity of C. restuans to alarm cues. In experiment 1, we showed that the response intensity to alarm cues could be increased by increasing the background level of risk in the mosquitoes’ environment (by adding salamander predators) and once turned on, the response intensity to alarm cues was likely maintained for the remainder of the mosquitoes’ aquatic life. In experiments 2 and 3, we investigated if the increase in response intensity to alarm cues was directly correlated with the level of background risk in the mosquitoes’ environment. When given increasing levels of background risk, mosquito larvae subsequently showed a graded response to conspecific alarm cues. This series of experiments demonstrates that the response intensity of larval mosquitoes to a standard concentration of alarm cues is not fixed, but rather dependent on the background level of risk in the environment. An understanding of the background level of risk is particularly important for comparing antipredator responses of prey between habitats.     

An integrated model of regional and local residential sorting with application to air quality

We examine the interconnectedness of demand for regionally and locally varying public goods using a residential sorting model. We propose a version of the model that describes household choices at the city (MSA) level and, conditional on city, the neighborhood (census tract) level. We use a two-stage budgeting argument to develop an empirically feasible sorting model that allows us to estimate preferences for regionally varying air quality while accounting for sorting at the local level. Our conceptual and empirical approach nests previous sorting models as special cases, allowing us to assess the importance of accounting for multiple spatial scales in our predictions for the cost of air pollution. Furthermore our preferred specification connects the city and neighborhood sorting margins to the upper and lower elements of a nested logit model, thereby establishing a useful correspondence between two stage budgeting and nested logit estimation. Empirically we find that estimates from a conventional model of sorting across MSAs imply a smaller marginal willingness to pay for air quality than estimates from our proposed model. We discuss how the difference is attributable in part to the omitted variable problems arising when tract level sorting is ignored.     

Is energy efficiency capitalized into home prices? Evidence from three U.S. cities

We test for evidence that energy efficiency features are capitalized into home prices in three U.S. metropolitan areas. Using hedonic regressions and multiple matching procedures, we find that Energy Star certification is associated with higher sales prices in two of the markets: the Research Triangle region of North Carolina and Portland, Oregon. We find that local “green” certifications in Portland and in Austin, Texas, are also associated with higher prices and that the estimated price impacts are larger than those from Energy Star. Matching on observables proves to be important in some cases, reducing the estimated impacts compared with models without matching. We calculate the implied energy savings from the estimated premiums and find that, in the Research Triangle market, the Energy Star premiums approximately equal the savings that program is designed to achieve, but in Portland, the premiums are slightly greater than the program's savings due to low energy costs in the region.     

Predicting Pathogen Introduction: West Nile Virus Spread to Galápagos

Abstract:  Emerging infectious diseases are a key threat to conservation and public health, yet predicting and preventing their emergence is notoriously difficult. We devised a predictive model for the introduction of a zoonotic vector-borne pathogen by considering each of the pathways by which it may be introduced to a new area and comparing the relative risk of each pathway. This framework is an adaptation of pest introduction models and estimates the number of infectious individuals arriving in a location and the duration of their infectivity. We used it to determine the most likely route for the introduction of West Nile virus to Galápagos and measures that can be taken to reduce the risk of introduction. The introduction of this highly pathogenic virus to this unique World Heritage Site could have devastating consequences, similar to those seen following introductions of pathogens into other endemic island faunas. Our model identified the transport of mosquitoes on airplanes as the highest risk for West Nile virus introduction. Pathogen dissemination through avian migration and the transportation of day-old chickens appeared to be less important pathways. Infected humans and mosquitoes transported in sea containers, in tires, or by wind all represented much lower risk. Our risk-assessment framework has broad applicability to other pathogens and other regions and depends only on the availability of data on the transport of goods and animals and the epidemiology of the pathogen.     

基于PBPK模型评价三氯乙烯的职业暴露健康风险

三氯乙烯(TCE)作为脱脂和清洗剂被广泛应用于五金、电镀和电子等行业。TCE的职业暴露会产生一系列健康风险,包括过敏症和致癌等。2012年TCE被美国环保局(US EPA)和国际癌症研究机构列为1类致癌物。采用吸附管采样-热脱附/气相色谱-质谱法分析了大连市某企业车间生产工况下空气中TCE浓度。基于生理学的药代动力学(PBPK)模型预测了呼吸暴露途径下TCE在职业工人体内组织中的动态分布、代谢产物生成情况和致癌风险。TCE在不同组织中预测的最大浓度呈现出脂肪肠充分灌注室支气管非充分灌注室肝脏静脉血动脉血的趋势。预测的与致癌有关的代谢产物最大浓度表现为三氯乙酸二氯乙酸三氯乙醛S-二氯乙烯基-L-半胱氨酸。在监测的TCE水平(39.2±24.4)μg·m-3下,暴露8 h·d-1,连续暴露20年,基于外暴露评价的职业工人致癌风险均值为1.31×10-5,该暴露水平下,基于PBPK模型预测的TCE内暴露与外暴露计算的致癌风险水平相近,但基于具有致癌性主要代谢产物的内暴露致癌风险值是外暴露风险值的1.17～1.73倍。TCE的暴露水平越高,基于内暴露方法和外暴露方法的致癌风险评价结果差异越大。敏感性分析表明,心输出血流量和充分灌注室血流量对PBPK模型输出结果具有重要影响。不确定性分析表明,模型参数变化会显著地影响PBPK模型输出结果,但变异在可接受水平。本研究结果说明,评价TCE暴露对人的致癌风险需要考虑其在体内的分布和代谢过程。     

Valuing environmental amenities through inverse optimization: Theory and case study

Amenity values of private forests are implicit but play a critical role in decision and policy making. This study presents an innovative valuation approach integrating techniques of operations research and economic theory of pricing environmental goods. A forest planning problem was inversed through altering its reward function of timber values so that the observed harvesting behavior became optimal. The discrepancy between the original and new rewards uncovered amenities values which were linked to forest attributes via hedonic models. This method was applied to a case study of the U.S. southern pine region. Depending on forest conditions, total economic values of amenities varied from zero to just under one thousand dollar per ha. At a discount rate of 3%, a typically managed forest generated on average $243 ha⁻¹ of amenities values per annum, more than twice of harvested timber values. Structural diversity and density of large pine trees were the key determinants to preserving forests for environmental amenities.     

Dioxin alters inflammatory responses to lipopolysaccharide

2,3,7,8-Tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) has well characterized effects on specific immune responses, but the effects on the innate immune system are less understood. The effect of TCDD on inflammatory responses induced by lipopolysaccharide (LPS) was evaluated in C57BL/6J female mice. Mice were treated with 30?µg?kg^?1 TCDD or vehicle once, p.o., and 4 days later, animals received LPS (0.05?×?10⁷?EU?kg^?1, i.p.) or vehicle. Inflammatory mediators and the liver injury marker, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), were measured, and liver histology was evaluated. TCDD-treated animals had higher plasma ALT activity than vehicle-treated animals, but the effect was mild and time-dependent. Few changes in liver histopathology were observed, mainly represented in greater steatosis in TCDD/LPS-treated mice compared to mice treated with LPS or TCDD alone. LPS produced a time-dependent increase in the plasma concentrations of interleukins (IL)-6, -10, and -12 and interferon (IFN)-γ, tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α, and monocyte chemoattractant protein (MCP)-1. With the exception of IL-12, concentrations of each of these mediators were higher in plasma of mice co-treated with TCDD and LPS compared to either agent alone. The dose–response curve for the concentration of IL-6 in plasma suggested that dioxin increased the potency of LPS to cause the release of this cytokine but not the maximal response. Co-treatment with TCDD and LPS also led to greater expression of mRNA for IL-10 and IFN-γ compared to either TCDD or LPS alone. These results suggest that TCDD changes the inflammatory cytokine profile induced by LPS and that LPS enhances the hepatic steatotic response to TCDD.     

Using the expert model PERPEST to translate measured and predicted pesticide exposure data into ecological risks

An important topic in the registration of pesticides and the interpretation of monitoring data is the estimation of the consequences of a certain concentration of a pesticide for the ecology of aquatic ecosystems. Solving these problems requires predictions of the expected response of the ecosystem to chemical stress. Up until now, a dominant approach to come up with such a prediction is the use of simulation models or safety factors. The disadvantage of the use of safety factors is a crude method that does not provide any insight into the concentration–response relationships at the ecosystem level. On the other hand, simulation models also have serious drawbacks like that they are often very complex, lack transparency, their implementation is expensive and there may be a compilation of errors, due to uncertainties in parameters and processes. In this paper, we present the expert model prediction of the ecological risks of pesticides (PERPEST) that overcomes these problems. It predicts the effects of a given concentration of a pesticide based on the outcome of already performed experiments using experimental ecosystems. This has the great advantage that the outcome is more realistic. The paper especially discusses how this model can be used to translate measured and predicted concentrations of pesticides into ecological risks, by taking data on measured and predicted concentrations of atrazine as an example. It is argued that this model can be of great use to evaluate the outcome of chemical monitoring programmes (e.g. performed in the light of the Water Framework Directive) and can even be used to evaluate the effects of mixtures.     

水生态基准方法学概述及建立我国水生态基准的探讨（Methodologies for Deriving Water Quality Criteria to Protect Aquatic Life（ALC）and Proposal for Development of ALC in China: A Review）

水生态基准的研究和制定对于控制进入水环境污染物的种类和数量,保护水体生物多样性及整个水生态系统的结构和功能具有重要意义.论文对不同国家和地区现有的主要水生态基准推导方法进行了概述,并从基准保护目标、数据的收集与评估、基准的计算方法等几个方面对各国水质基准推导方法进行了比较.参照国外水质基准的推导过程及我国水生态系统的特征,探讨了合理可行的水生态基准保护目标、计算方法及推导流程,并对我国水生态基准的推导中可能存在的问题进行了讨论.     

The paradox of risk assessment: comparing responses of fathead minnows to capture-released and diet-released alarm cues from two different predators

Summary. Many aquatic prey are known to use chemical alarm cues to assess their risk of predation. In fishes, such alarm cues can be released either through damage of the epidermis during a predatory attack (capture-released) or through release from the predator feces (diet-released). In our study, we compared the importance of capture- versus diet-released alarm cues in risk assessment by fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas) that were na?ve to fish predators. We utilized two different fish predators: a specialized piscivore, the northern pike (Esox lucius) and a generalist predator, the brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis). Handling time of pike consuming minnows was much shorter than for trout consuming minnows, likely resulting in less epidermal damage to the minnows during attacks by pike. In accordance with this, minnows showed a less intense antipredator response to capture-released cues from pike than capture-released cues from trout. This represents a paradox in risk assessment for the minnows as they respond to the specialized piscivore, the more dangerous predator, with a less intense antipredator response. In contrast, the minnows showed a stronger antipredator response to the specialized piscivore than to the generalist when given diet cues. This work highlights the need for researchers to carefully consider the nature of the information available to prey in risk assessment.     

Modelling the responses of wildlife to human disturbance: An evaluation of alternative management scenarios for black-crowned night-herons

The impact of anthropogenic disturbance on wildlife is increasing becoming a source of concern as the popularity of outdoor recreation rises. There is now more pressure on site managers to simultaneously ensure the continued persistence of wildlife and provide recreational opportunities. Using ‘Simulation of Disturbance Activities’, a model designed to investigate the impact of recreational disturbance on wildlife, we demonstrate how a simulation modelling approach can effectively inform such management decisions. As an example, we explored the implications of various design and management options for a proposed recreational area containing a historic breeding bird colony. By manipulating the proximity, orientation and intensity of recreation, we were able to evaluate the impact of recreational activities on the behaviour of black-crowned night-heron nestlings (Nycticorax nycticorax). Using a classification and regression tree (CART) procedure to analyse simulation output, we explored the dynamics of multiple strategies in concert. Our analysis revealed that there are inherent advantages in implementing multiple strategies as opposed to any single strategy. Nestlings were not disturbed by recreation when bird-watching facility placement (proximity and orientation) and type were considered in combination. In comparison, proximity alone only led to a <10% reduction in disturbance. Thus we demonstrate how simulation models based on customised empirical data can bridge the gap between field studies and active management, enabling users to test novel management scenarios that are otherwise logistically difficult. Furthermore, such models potentially have broad application in understanding human-wildlife interactions (e.g. exploring the implications of roads on wildlife, probability of bird strikes around airports, etc.). They therefore represent a valuable decision-making tool in the ecological design of urban infrastructures.     

依据(代)生物体对化学品的反应预测对生态系统服务功能的影响

保护生态系统服务功能越来越多地被作为风险评估的目标,但是目前生态风险评估的终点和评估生态系统服务功能受到的潜在影响之间有很大的差距。作者提出了一个框架,将常用的生态毒理学终点与对种群和群落的影响以及生态系统的服务功能联系起来。这个框架建立在机制效应模型的长足进步上,这些模型旨在跨越多种生物组织,并解释各种生物相互作用和反馈。为了说明这一点,作者引入了2个研究案例,它们采用了已完善和已验证的机制效应模型：鱼种群的inSTREAM个体模型和AQUATOX生态系统模型。他们还展示了动态能量平衡理论可以为解释组织级毒性提供一种通用货币。他们认为,一个基于机制模型的框架,可以预测化学品暴露对生态系统服务的影响,再结合经济估值,可以为环境管理提供一种有用的方法。作者强调了使用这个框架的潜在好处以及未来工作中需要解决的挑战。
精选自Forbes, V. E., Salice, C. J., Birnir, B., Bruins, R. J.F., Calow, P., Ducrot, V., Galic, N., Garber, K., Harvey, B. C., Jager, H., Kanarek, A., Pastorok, R., Railsback, S. F., Rebarber, R. and Thorbek, P. (2017), A framework for predicting impacts on ecosystem services from (sub)organismal responses to chemicals. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, 36: 845–859. doi: 10.1002/etc.3720
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/etc.3720/full
     

重金属污染土壤的微生物响应

土壤微生物在受到重金属污染胁迫后，往往能够在区系组成、生理生化、遗传等方面对重金属作出响应。微生物对土壤重金属污染的上述响应可用来评价土壤的重金属污染状况，并为土壤污染的生物修复提供理论指导。文章对近年来有关重金属胁迫下土壤微生物响应的研究成果作系统综述。     

Ecological responses to variation in seasonal snow cover

Seasonal snow is among the most important factors governing the ecology of many terrestrial ecosystems, but rising global temperatures are changing snow regimes and driving widespread declines in the depth and duration of snow cover. Loss of the insulating snow layer will fundamentally change the environment. Understanding how individuals, populations, and communities respond to different snow conditions is thus essential for predicting and managing future ecosystem change. We synthesized 365 studies that examined ecological responses to variation in winter snow conditions. This research encompasses a broad range of methods (experimental manipulations, measurement of natural snow gradients, and long-term monitoring), locations (35 countries), study organisms (plants, mammals, arthropods, birds, fish, lichen, and fungi), and response measures. Earlier snowmelt was consistently associated with advanced spring phenology in plants, mammals, and arthropods. Reduced snow depth often increased mortality or physical injury in plants, although there were few clear effects on animals. Neither snow depth nor snowmelt timing had clear or consistent directional effects on body size of animals or biomass of plants. However, because 96% of studies were from the northern hemisphere, the generality of these trends across ecosystems and localities is also unclear. We identified substantial research gaps for several taxonomic groups and response types; research on wintertime responses was notably scarce. Future research should prioritize examination of the mechanisms underlying responses to changing snow conditions and the consequences of those responses for seasonally snow-covered ecosystems.     

The dynamic nature of antipredator behavior: prey fish integrate threat-sensitive antipredator responses within background levels of predation risk

Prey animals often have to face a dynamic tradeoff between the costs of antipredator behavior and the benefits of other fitness-related activities such as foraging and reproduction. According to the threat-sensitive predator avoidance hypothesis, prey animals should match the intensity of their antipredator behavior to the degree of immediate threat posed by the predator. Moreover, longer-term temporal variability in predation risk (over days to weeks) can shape the intensity of antipredator behavior. According to the risk allocation hypothesis, changing the background level of risk for several days is often enough to change the response intensity of the prey to a given stimulus. As the background level of risk increases, the response intensity of the prey decreases. In this study, we tested for possible interactions between immediate threat-sensitive responses to varying levels of current perceived risk and temporal variability in background risk experienced over the past 3 days. Juvenile convict cichlids were preexposed to either low or high frequencies of predation risk (using conspecific chemical alarm cues) for 3 days and were then tested for a response to one of five concentrations (100, 50, 25, 12.5%, or a distilled water control). According to the threat-sensitive predator avoidance hypothesis, we found greater intensity responses to greater concentrations of alarm cues. Moreover, in accordance with the risk allocation hypothesis, we found that cichlids previously exposed to the high background level of risk exhibited a lower overall intensity response to each alarm cue concentration than those exposed to the low background level of risk. It is interesting to note that we found that the background level of risk over the past 3 days influenced the threshold level of response to varying concentrations of alarm cues. Indeed, the minimum stimulus concentration that evoked a behavioral response was lower for fish exposed to high background levels of predation than those exposed to low background levels of predation. These results illustrate a remarkable interplay between immediate (current) risk and background risk in shaping the intensity of antipredator responses.     

Ecological risk assessment from the viewpoint of surface water pollution in Xiamen City,China

The ecological security of urban surface water is subject to significant risk due to rapid urbanization. Pollutant discharge and accumulation are among the most critical stressors endangering urban surface water and affecting the normal operation of urban aquatic ecosystem services. In this study, we assessed how pollutant accumulation stresses water purification systems, which perform important urban ecosystem services. First, we applied a water environmental capacity model to calculate thresholds of urban surface water environmental capacity under a given water quality target. Second, based on a stepwise regression method, an equation was used to describe the relationship between stressor factors (pollutant accumulation) and measurable socioeconomic indicators. Third, an ecological risk index was used as an assessment endpoint indicator to assess the negative ecological effect of pollutant accumulation. Finally, risk level was classified according to the risk quotient method. Taking Xiamen City as an example, we analyzed the contribution of different sources of pollutants and evaluated the urban ecological risk posed by two major contaminants present in the environment by measuring chemical oxygen demand (COD) and ammonium nitrogen (NH₄⁺-N). The results show that the ecological risk indexes of both COD and NH₄⁺-N are expected to decrease from 2020 to 2030; that of COD is expected to fall from medium to low, whereas that of NH₄⁺-N is expected to fall from high to medium. These findings demonstrate that the ecological risk posed to the surface water in Xiamen City can be reduced by controlling population growth, optimizing industrial structure, and promoting economic development.     

基于气象灾害的青岛市域生态风险评价

根据美国环保局（USEPA）的生态风险评价框架和相对风险模型（Relative Risk Model,RRM）,对青岛市域县级行政区的干旱、洪涝、大风和冰雹4种气象灾害进行了生态风险评价。评价结果表明,研究区内干旱生态风险最为严重,洪涝其次;耕地承受的风险最高,城镇和居民地其次;胶州的生态风险最大,青岛市区其次。而且胶州的干旱灾害、市区的大风灾害、平度的冰雹灾害以及胶南的草地成灾比较突出,成为风险分区的依据。最后,不确定性分析表明RRM不确定性的模拟值与计算值接近,验证了RRM在县级尺度上的适用性;敏感性分析说明相对风险值对干旱等级4最为敏感,且对生境分级敏感程度高于风险源分级。此外,利用生态系统生态服务功能的损失率确定暴露系数,降低了确定暴露系数带来的随机性。同时,生境变化需要进一步考虑以明确生态风险在时间尺度上的变化特点。     

RBCA、CLEA及CalTOX模型在苯并[a]芘污染场地健康风险评估中的应用比较

为探讨不同模型对污染场地健康风险评估结果的影响,以苯并[a]芘为例,采用RBCA、CLEA和CalTOX模型对某工业污染场地表层土壤进行健康风险评估,分析了评估结果的差异和原因,同时对模型的主要暴露参数进行了敏感性分析,并推导出基于风险概率分布的土壤修复限值。结果表明,RBCA、CLEA和CalTOX模型计算的苯并[a]芘致癌总风险分别为2.40×10-4、6.32×10-4和7.04×10-6,且经口摄入和皮肤接触2个途径对人体健康造成的危害最大。降解作用是影响CalTOX模型风险评估结果不同于RBCA和CLEA模型的重要因素,3个模型间参数取值及方法学的差异也会导致风险评估结果不同。各模型暴露参数的敏感性排序也有差异。采用基于风险概率分布的方法推导土壤修复限值,RBCA、CLEA和CalTOX模型所得结果分别为0.18、0.08、0.13(不考虑降解作用CalTOX模型)和10.74(考虑降解作用CalTOX模型)mg·kg-1,为各模型直接推导值的1.5～2.6倍。基于风险概率分布的方法可有效降低风险评估过程中参数不确定性的影响,为工业污染场地土壤修复值的制定提供参考。     

中国典型土壤中铅的生物可给性的影响因素分析与健康风险评估

土壤铅污染及其危害备受关注.作为评估其对人体健康风险的科学指标之一,土壤铅的生物可给性的影响因素仍不甚明确.采集中国5种典型土壤(红壤、褐土、黑土、棕壤和黄壤),根据国标中一类建设用地的管制值制备成800 mg·kg-1的铅污染土壤样品,利用先进的基于生理学的体外试验方法(改进的PBET模型)研究经口部摄入的土壤铅的生...