纺织厂车间噪声的灰色GIM（1）预测模型

利用灰色ＧＩＭ（１）模型的非时序直接建模法原理,对纺织厂织造车间的环境噪声分别建立了等间隔和不等间隔的非时序预测模型。实测研究表明ＧＩＭ（１）模型优于常规ＧＭ（１,１）模型,且所需建模数据大为减少,预测精度更高（达９９．９９％）,从而拓宽了灰色预测的适用范围。     

地表水COD浓度灰色预测的GPPM（1）模型

根据地表水中ＣＯＤ浓度的时序数据,建立了ＧＰＰＭ（１）预测模型,结果表明ＧＰＰＭ（１）模型的预测精度优于常规灰色ＧＭ（１,１）模型,它为环境系统的拟合,预测和决策提供了新的方法途径。     

北京市城市道路交通噪声的灰色预测

以北京市1991~2002年城市道路交通噪声监测数据为基础,运用灰色系统理论,建立了灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,并采用残差、均方差比值、小误差概率检验等3种办法对所建模型的拟合精度进行了检验.结果表明,此模型精度为一级灰色预测模型.预测精度较高,平均拟合偏差为0.40%.对2003~2005年噪声的预测精度平均高达99.9%.利用常规GM(1,1)模型、新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型和多维灰数递补GM(1,1)模型等三种预测模型对本市未来3年(2006~2008年)的城市道路交通噪声进行了预测.     

GPSM(1)灰色模型在大气降水酸度预测中的应用

介绍了ＧＰＳＭ（１）灰色模型的建模思想,并将其成功地应用于某地大气降水酸度预测,其结果与实际情况一致性很好,表明ＧＰＳＭ（１）模型预测大气降水酸度是可行的     

稳健GM(1,1)模型在工业固废产生量预测中的应用

本文提出了稳健灰色模型,并用该模型建立了山东省工业固体废物产生量数学模型。结果表明,稳健ＧＭ（１,１）模型比通常的ＧＭ（１,１）模型更具预测应用价值。     

灰色系统模型在高锰酸盐指数预测中的应用

以某地地表水中高锰酸盐指数年平均浓度变化为依据 ,应用灰色系统中 GM(1 ,1 )模型 ,对高锰酸盐指数浓度进行预测分析。     

环境振动的灰色预测模型

利用GIM(1)的非时序直接建模法预测研究建筑施工的环境振动 ,并将GIM(1)模型与GM (1,1)模型进行比较分析 ,结果表明GIM(1)模型的拟合精度优良 ,对原始资料中白化信息的利用更加丰富 ,拓宽了GIM (1)模型在环境科学领域中的应用范围     

应用递推GM（1,1）模型预测废气排放量

一、概述灰色系统理论中的一阶单变量预测模型GM(1,1),目前在环境预测实践中异常活跃,仅最近一段时间就有多种杂志刊登了多篇此类文章.总的来说,这些文章有以下两个特点:1.应用领域的拓广.如应用于港口油污染预测,降水pH值预测,城市环境综合整治定量考核指标预测,工业废渣产生量预测,大气悬浮颗粒物浓度预测,水污染控制系统中应用等等.2.预测方法的应用.如采用残差再度建模修正的方法,新陈代谢模型(等维信息模型)方法,拓扑预测方法,灾变预测方法等等.从根本上而言,这些应用实践均基于同样的建模原理及辨识方法(本文称之为普通GM(1,1)模型),即为连续的微分模型.本文将这种建模原理及辨识方法作适当的改变,介绍一种递推的差分模型,并应用于     

基于决策树技术及在线监测的水质预测

利用北方某城市水源的水质在线监测系统,建立了基于决策树技术,具有较强可视性和实际应用,以及能预测次日源水中叶绿素水平的决策树模型.该模型将某城市水源在线监测的溶解氧和太阳辐射照度数据转换计算为每日平均标准偏差及均值,并与每日定时取样测定的叶绿素含量一起作为预测因子,通过将115组数据的前100组数据作为训练集建立预测次日叶绿素水平决策树模型,并采用后15组数据进行模型的仿真预测检验,结果只有3 d的预测出错,预测准确率达80%.并讨论了模型建立对数据的要求及解读预测规则等问题.     

基于Hydrus-1D预测模型的包气带溶质运移研究

对于环境敏感程度等级高的Ⅰ类建设项目而言,采用定性描述和类比分析对土壤环境影响进行论述评价不甚合理.本文以某危险废物处置类建设项目为例,应用Hydrus-1D预测模型研究了污染物溶质在包气带中的运移情况,结果表明:当污染物砷、铜、铅、镍持续点源垂直入渗100 d后最大下渗距离分别约为1.40、1.65、1.44 m和1...     

用灰色系统理论对乌鲁木齐市大气降水pH值进行预测分析

运用灰色系统理论建立灰色模型ＧＭ，对该模型进行了检验和残差修正。并用其模型分析和预测乌鲁木齐市１９９４＝１９９８年大气降水ｐＨ值。     

基于灰色聚类方法的湖泊营养状态综合评价

将湖泊水体的营养状态看作一个灰色系统,建立用于识别湖泊营养状态属性的灰色聚类综合评价模型,将水质级别作为一个灰类,水质状态作为灰色变量,根据灰色白化权函数聚类方法来确定水体营养状况归类。以太湖为例,基于分布全湖的20个监测点数据,运用灰色聚类法对其进行富营养状态综合评价,结果表明,监测时段太湖大部分水体基本处于中营养水平,局部湖面达到中度富营养状态,客观地反映了太湖湖区水体营养状况。     

Modified grey model for estimating traffic tunnel air quality

This study compared three forecasting models based on the mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) of their accuracy in forecasting air pollution in a traffic tunnel: the Grey model (GM), the combination model used four sample point and five sample point prediction with GM (1,1)(GM(1,1)^4 + 5), and the modified grey model (MGM). An MGM was combined using the four points of the original sequence using the original grey prediction GM (1,1) for short-term forecasting. The proposed method cannot only enhance the prediction accuracy of the original grey model, but can also solve the jump data forecasting problem something for which the original grey model is inappropriate. The MAPE was applied to the models, and the MGM found the proposed method to be simple and efficient. The MAPE of MGM, calculated over 3 h of forecasts, were as follows: 10.12 (Upwind), 10.07 (Middle) and 7.68 (Downwind) for CO; 10.79 (Upwind), 6.05 (Middle) and 5.98 (Downwind) for NO _x , and 11.67 (Upwind), 7.32 (Middle) and 4.56 (Downwind) for NMHC. The MGM model results reveal that the combined forecasts can significantly decrease the overall forecasting error. Results of this demonstrate that MGM can accurately forecast air pollution in the Kaohsiung Chung–Cheng Tunnel.     

固相萃取-超高效液相色谱-串联质谱法快速测定环境水样中30种极性农药

建立了固相萃取-超高效液相色谱-串联质谱快速测定环境水样中30种极性农药的方法.30种极性农药经过固相萃取(SPE)富集净化,以超高效液相色谱-串联质谱(UPLC-MS-MS)多级监测模式(MRM)外标法进行定性定量分析.结果表明:环境水样中30种极性农药的检出限为0.2～5 ng/L.对同一环境样品进行了低、中、高3...     

Grey Box and Component Models to Forecast Ozone Episodes: A Comparison Study

For the purpose of short-term forecasting of high ozone concentration episodes stochastic models have been suggested and developed in the literature. The present paper compares the quality of forecasts produced by a grey box and a component time-series model. The summer ozone patterns for three European urban areas (two continental and one mediterranean) are processed. By means of forecast performance indices according to EC and WHO guidelines, the following features of the models could be found: The grey box model is highly adaptive and produces forecasts with low error variance that increases with the time horizon of forecast. The component model is more 'stiff' that results in a higher forecast-error variance and poorer adaption in detail. The forecast horizon, however, could be enlarged with this model. The accuracy of predicting threshold exceedance is similar for both models. This can be understood from the assumption of a cyclical time development of ozone that was made for both models.     

Applying the grey assessment to the evaluation system of ecological green space on greening projects in Taiwan

This study is designed to develop an alternative evaluation method for ecological green space. It offers criteria for identifying ecological green space on building sites. The grey decision-making method is applied to assess the greening project at the first step. The evaluation items are rebuilt by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method at the second step. The range of standard values and the weighting values are also obtained by AHP. Grey classes are identified using the whitening weight function of the grey number. The evaluation system of the ecological green space is framed by grey clusters. We considered the factors of building environment and the scale of building sites in the ecological greenery of green building sites.This study proposes a new model to solve the problems hard to be quantified. Especially for those ecological benefits are too close to decide. Architects and landscape architects can input the engineering data and the design information into the ecological greenery assessment system. The identification and assessment system of green space is fit for Taiwan area. We will obtain the best greening project by the maximum value of absolute degree of grey incidence (max{varepsilon ( ij )}) in grey-decision making. The maximum value of synthetic clustering coefficient (max{sigma ( k )}) in grey clustering assessment reflects the quality and variation of green space.     

灰色关联矩阵优势分析在水环境质量综合评价中的应用

把一条河流视为一灰色系统，应用灰色关联矩阵优势分析法，并以国际[1]为参照系，进行综合评价，通过尝试说明该数学模型有较强的分辨能力，是一种接近实际的方法。     

Mathematical Modeling of Column and Field Dense Nonaqueous Phase Liquid Tracer Tests

Mathematical models for the simulation of dense nonaqueous phase liquid tracer tests (DTTs) in laboratory columns and in the field are developed and examined. The DTT technique is a means of estimating the quantity of dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) in a domain of interest in an aquifer. The two-dimensional field DTT model uses the Method of Principal Directions and an asymmetrical upwind algorithm for describing advective transport. Both models include diffusion transport of tracer into and from low-permeability porous structures such as clay lenses, as well as the mass transport kinetics of partitioning tracer to and from the DNAPL droplets. The dependence of the effluent tracer concentration curves on the parameters of the models is explored, and conclusions are drawn regarding the applicability of, and several possible problems with, the DTT technique. Model results indicate that the DTT performs well at locating distributed droplets of DNAPL, but is unlikely to be useful in the assessment of pooled DNAPL.