湖南城市洪涝易损性诊断与评估

首先从孕育洪涝灾害的环境变异性、社会经济灾敏性、城市土地利用对洪涝的放大作用，防洪标准和人为设障等方面对湖南城市洪涝的易损性进行了总体诊断。然后，选取人口密度、工业产值密度、道路网密度、排水管道密度、建成区绿地率等指标，运用模糊综合评判对之进行了定量评估。将全省城市洪涝的易损性程度划分为5个等级；高度易损性，较高度易损性、中度易损性、较低度易损性、低度易损性。研究结果表明：湖南城市洪涝易损性程度总体水平高，因此，湖南洪涝防治要从以农村为重点转向以城市为重点，加大城市洪涝治理力度；湖南城市洪涝易损性程度等级与城市规模之间没有对应关系，因此，湖南城市洪涝防治应因地制宜。     

江苏湖泊富营养化特征、成因及解决途径

应用湖泊营养类型评价标准对江苏省主要湖泊富营养化进行了评价,以区域环境特征对苏南和苏北湖群及城郊湖泊富营养化现状、发生原因及对策进行了探讨,分析表明：城郊湖泊全部为富营养和重富营养水平,苏北湖群营养程度已接近苏南湖群,呈中富营养中期,太湖东部营养程度较之太湖西部高出一个营养级别以上。苏北湖群多为过水性湖泊,易受高浓度工农业污水脉冲式入湖影响;苏南湖群污染成因则相对较复杂,主要受城镇生活和工农业生产高污染负荷的氮磷排放影响。严格控制流域内各类污染源的源头污染物排放量、充分利用河网湿地净化功能、适度进行湖内污染底泥疏浚和生态重建工程,对控制江苏湖泊富营养化将是较有效的途径。     

生态工程在湖垸湿地农业持续发展中的应用

湖垸是平原湖区农业生产的基本湿地单元。本文通过对江汉平原四湖地区的一个典型湖垸──新兴垸湿地农业开发的调查与分析，指出必须在湖垸微地貌基础上建设拦蓄和疏导并举的农田水利工程设施，因地制宜布局农业生产模式，发展沼气促进湖垸湿地生态系统物质能量的多级循环利用，保护与合理利用湿地资源，同时肯定并强调生态工程的应用是湖垸湿地农业持续发展的必由之路     

洞庭湖演变对农业生态环境垢影响

从洞庭湖演变历史的回顾入手，讨论了洞庭湖演变对湖区农业生态环境的影响，认为湖体演变带来了诸如湖泊温暖效应降低、洪涝灾害频繁、土壤潜有化严重、血吸虫病流行以及水产资源破坏等一系列生态环境问题，并提出了保护和改善湖区农业生态环境的对策与措施。     

洞庭湖演变对农业生态环境的影响

从洞庭湖演变历史的回顾入手，讨论了洞庭湖演变对湖区农业生态环境的影响，认为湖体演变带来了诸如湖泊温暖效应降低、洪涝灾害频繁、土壤潜育化严重、血吸虫病流行以及水产资源破坏等一系列生态环境问题，并提出了保护和改善湖区农业生态环境的对策与措施。     

城市化趋向与我国城市可持续发展的现实选择

城市化是人类生产和生活方式由乡村型向城市型转化的历史进程，表现为乡村人口向城市人口转化以及城市不断发展完善的过程。城市化有阶段性，集聚扩散性、不平衡性和与工业化的互动性等基本规律，表现为同步城市化、过度城市化和滞后城市化模式，呈现多元化、集群化、国际化、网络化、生态化和逆城市化趋势。根据这些基本理论和现实情况，作者提出了加快中国城市化，实现城市可持续发展的六项政策建议。     

农地城市流转的农户福利效应测度

农地城市流转是城市化过程中普遍的社会经济现象。农地城市流转前后农户福利效应是农民在此过程中生活状况的综合反映。本文选择武汉城市圈中的武汉和咸宁作为研究区域,针对两地的调查数据,考虑福利评价的模糊性和灰度,尝试运用灰色模糊综合评判方法,从组织生产、经济收入、健康与休闲、社会保障、居住条件与环境、社会参与、子女教育、社会公平八种农户家庭功能性活动选择评价指标,对研究区域农地城市流转的农户福利效应进行测度、评判。研究结果显示,农地流转使得农户家庭总福利水平从0.413下降到0.353,而对农户家庭的不同功能性活动有不同的影响方向和影响程度。农地流转使得农户的组织生产、社会保障、居住条件与环境和社会公平功能水平下降,使得农户的经济收入、健康与休闲、社会参与和子女教育功能水平上升。研究表明当前的补偿方式、补偿金额难以改进被征地农户福利,也不能改善农户生活水平。     

城市人口规模、就业密度与生产性空气污染排放——双重倒“U”型关系的解析与检验

随着中国城镇化快速推进，城市生产活动的活跃引致空气污染排放的加剧，明晰城市人口规模和就业密度对生产性空气污染排放的影响效应意义深远。该研究通过构建理论模型开展数值模拟，发现城市人口规模、就业密度与城市生产性空气污染排放之间均满足倒“U”型关系，且规模与密度均对倒“U”型门槛值存在调节效应。基于此，利用2010—2018年中国274个地级以上城市的面板数据进行实证检验，估计结果表明：(1)城市人口规模、就业密度对生产性空气污染排放的影响均符合稳健的倒“U”型特征，2018年生产性空气污染排放由升转降的规模门槛值和密度门槛值分别为105万人和3 469人/km²。(2)目前，中国部分城市的人口规模与就业密度已超过门槛值，步入生产性空气污染排放的“双下行”通道，这些城市人口增加延长了非生产时间，对有效劳动供给造成的损失超过劳动力时间禀赋的增加，从而使得生产受限减少了生产性空气污染排放；同时，城市高就业密度有利于创新扩散和知识外溢，对生产性空气污染排放产生的减排作用强于高就业密度带来的生产激励效应对空气污染排放的增排作用，这些作用的综合结果使得生产性空气污染排放趋于下降。...     

经济-生态导向的城市人口空间分布优化——以无锡市区为例

城市人口分布格局不仅受经济就业、生活质量、通勤距离等自组织分布要素的引导,还受到政府管制和调控的制约,不可能完全通过自组织而实现人口分布的优化。因此,除了阐释人口分布的自组织变动机制和影响因素外,还迫切需要研究人口分布对经济社会与资源环境方面的综合影响,进而提出优化的人口空间格局。在大量查阅人口分布相关理论的基础上,研究了城市人口空间分布模式,提出了生态约束、生产挤占、生活集聚、效益综合、顾及现状等人口优化分布原则,并运用随机与目标函数方法,建立人口空间分布优化模型。以无锡市区为例,基于丰富的人口、经济、资源、环境资料,进行城市空间生态保护、生产开发、生活居住价值评价,通过模型运算,提出优化的人口空间分布格局,为无锡市区人口分布调控提供依据。     

基于“三生功能”的长江上游城市群国土空间特征及其优化

国土空间是人类生产、生活活动及生态文明建设的载体,如何促进国土空间有序、适度和可持续开发利用,是当前亟待解决的科学问题。基于"三生功能"视角,通过熵权法和功能评价分析长江上游城市群国土空间特征,并利用空间功能比较优势指数、系统聚类等方法,探讨其国土空间优化方案。结果表明:(1)长江上游城市群"三生功能"呈"少强多弱"的特征,空间上城市生产、生活功能测度值自核心城市区向外围区域呈递减的趋势,且低值区总体成片分布;(2)生态功能测度值自核心城市向外围区域总体呈递增的趋势,区域生态安全格局构建与经济发展矛盾明显;(3)将长江上游城市群国土空间划分为4种优势功能区,并提出了长江上游城市群国土空间优化方案。     

Ethnosciences––A step towards the integration of scientific and indigenous forms of knowledge in the management of natural resources for the future

Integration of indigenous knowledge and ethnoscientific approaches into contemporary frameworks for conservation and sustainable management of natural resources will become increasingly important in policies on an international and national level, both in countries that are industrialised and those that have a developing status. We set the scene on how this can be done by exploring the key conditions and dimensions of a dialogue between ȁ8ontologiesȁ9 and the roles, which ethnosciences could play in this process. First, the roles of ethnosciences in the context of sustainable development were analysed, placing emphasis on the implications arising when western sciences aspire to relate to indigenous forms of␣knowledge. Secondly, the contributions of ethnosciences to such an ȁ8inter- ontological dialogueȁ9 were explored, based on an ethnoecological study of the encounter of sciences and indigenous knowledge in the Andes of Bolivia, and reviewed experiences from mangrove systems in Kenya, India and Sri Lanka, and from case-studies in other ecosystems world-wide, incl. Australia, Burkina Faso, Ecuador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Indonesia, Nepal, Niger, Philippines, Senegal, South-Africa and Tanzania.     

Paradoxical ozone associations could be due to methyl nitrite from combustion of methyl ethers or esters in engine fuels

We review studies of the effects of low ambient ozone concentrations on morbidity that found a negative coefficient for ozone concentration. We call this a Paradoxical Ozone Association (POA). All studies were in regions with methyl ether in gasoline. All but one study carefully controlled for the effects of other criterion pollutants, so the phenomenon cannot be attributed to them. One was in southern California in mid-summer when ozone levels are highest. Because ozone is created by sunlight, the most plausible explanation for a POA would be an ambient pollutant that is rapidly destroyed by sunlight, such as methyl nitrite (MN). A previously published model of engine exhaust chemistry suggested methyl ether in the fuel will create MN in the exhaust. MN is known to be highly toxic, and closely related alkyl nitrites are known to induce respiratory sensitivity in humans. Support for the interpretation comes from many studies, including three linking asthma symptoms to methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and the observation that a POA has not been seen in regions without ether in gasoline. We also note that studies in southern California show a historical trend from more significant to less significant ozone-health associations. The timing of those changes is consistent with the known timing of the introduction of gasoline oxygenated with MTBE in that region.     

湘鄂赣农业资源与专业化区域化方向

湘鄂赣地理位置优越,农业资源丰富,稻谷、茶叶、麻类、棉花、油料、柑桔和淡水产品、禽蛋、肉类等在我国居有重要的地位,因此,大力发展三省农业生产,对我国人民实现小康生活具有战略意义。今后,要加速专业化区域化进程。我们找出生产潜力所在:改造低产田、低产园、低产水面;开发“三高”技术;开垦荒地、荒山、荒水;适当提高复种指数。通过建设,三省主要农产品将自给有余,还可满足国内外市场的需要。努力方向:高效农业开发——综合农业开发,吨粮田开发,玉米带开发,饲料稻开发,山区开发;合理布局农业生产;深化农业商品基地建设,发展综合利用,搞活商品流通;全面提高农业现代化水平,加强农业社会服务体系。     

Prognosis of the spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystems by means of universal kriging

The use of quantitative data for constructing prognostic maps of the dynamics of ecosystem degradation and restoration by nonlinear simulation methods is a topical field of landscape ecology. This method of dynamic cartography is based on fiberwise comparison of data on the state of Chernye Zemli (the Kalmyk Republic, Russia) in different years and the detailed analysis of the period on which the prognosis was based. For this purpose, materials of repeated aerial and satellite photography obtained during a long period (1954–1993) were used. Comparison of maps characterizing the dynamics of Chernye Zemli between 1958 and 1993 allows prognostic electronic maps for the next 10–15 years (with a five-year interval) to be drawn and land prognosis for the next 20–30 years (1998–2023) to be obtained. Deceased     

Distributions of personal VOC exposures: a population-based analysis

Information regarding the distribution of volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations and exposures is scarce, and there have been few, if any, studies using population-based samples from which representative estimates can be derived. This study characterizes distributions of personal exposures to ten different VOCs in the U.S. measured in the 1999-2000 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Personal VOC exposures were collected for 669 individuals over 2-3 days, and measurements were weighted to derive national-level statistics. Four common exposure sources were identified using factor analyses: gasoline vapor and vehicle exhaust, methyl tert-butyl ether (MBTE) as a gasoline additive, tap water disinfection products, and household cleaning products. Benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, xylenes chloroform, and tetrachloroethene were fit to log-normal distributions with reasonably good agreement to observations. 1,4-Dichlorobenzene and trichloroethene were fit to Pareto distributions, and MTBE to Weibull distribution, but agreement was poor. However, distributions that attempt to match all of the VOC exposure data can lead to incorrect conclusions regarding the level and frequency of the higher exposures. Maximum Gumbel distributions gave generally good fits to extrema, however, they could not fully represent the highest exposures of the NHANES measurements. The analysis suggests that complete models for the distribution of VOC exposures require an approach that combines standard and extreme value distributions, and that carefully identifies outliers. This is the first study to provide national-level and representative statistics regarding the VOC exposures, and its results have important implications for risk assessment and probabilistic analyses.     

Long-term increase in climatic dryness in the East-Mediterranean as evidenced for the island of Samos

The Eastern Mediterranean region is among the regions which were predicted to become drier under IPCC climate scenarios. Here, we document a gradual reduction of rainfall and tree growth and the loss of rural springs during the last decades of the twentieth century. Years with severe drought are associated with very low tree growth (dendrochronology) and dry falling of springs as evidenced by interviews with local stakeholders. The paper discusses the consequences of accelerating drought on natural vegetation and agriculture and points at the interaction with fire dynamics and economy, both likely to enhance the drought effect.     

Geographic Variation in the Seasonal Reproductive Strategy of the Mite Varroa jacobsoni in the Honeybee Nest

Variation in the reproduction of Varroa jacobsoni mite was studied in relation to the expansion of the range of its parasitism on the honeybee. Geographic differences in the seasonal dynamics of mite reproduction in the nests of bee families were revealed. Variation in the sex ratio of mites and the factors inhibiting their reproduction at the northern boundary of the honeybee range are considered. The forms of parthenogenetic reproduction in V. jacobsoni are discussed.     

Comparative analysis of the effect of predator odor on morphological and physiological parameters of adult male Campbell hamsters (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Phodopus campbelli</Emphasis>) and dwarf hamsters (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Phodopus sungorus</Emphasis>)

The effect of long-term exposure to natural excretions of the European polecat on the morphological parameters and hormonal status of adult male Campbell hamsters (Phodopus campbelli) and dwarf hamsters (Ph. sungorus) was studied. Exposure to volatile components of natural excreta of a potential predator did not have any significant effect on hamsters. The combined influence of volatile and nonvolatile components of the polecat’s excretions caused physiological stress in Ph. campbelli, while in Ph. sungorus, on the contrary, an increase in thymus weight and the plasma testosterone level was recorded.     

How Do Groups Solve Local Commons Dilemmas? Lessons from Experimental Economics in the Field

The use of experimental settings to observe human behaviour in a controlled environment of incentives, rules and institutions, has been widely used by the behavioural sciences for sometime now, particularly by psychology and economics. In most cases the subjects are college students recruited for one to two hour decision making exercises in which, depending on their choices, they earn cash averaging US$ 20. In such exercises players face a set of feasible actions, rules and incentives (payoffs) involving different forms of social exchange with other people, and that in most cases involve some kind of externalities with incomplete contracts, such as in the case of common-pool resources situations. Depending on the ecological and institutional settings, the resource users face a set of feasible levels of extraction, a set of rules regarding the control or monitoring of individual use, and sometimes ways of imposing material or non-material costs or rewards to those breaking or following the rules. We brought the experimental lab to the field and invited about two hundred users of natural resources in three Colombian rural villages to participate in such decision making exercises and through these and other research instruments we learned about the ways they solve - or fail to - tragedies of the commons with different social institutions. Further, bringing the lab to the field allowed us to explore some of the limitations of existing models about human behaviour and its consequences for designing policies for conserving ecosystems and improving social welfare.     

Latitudinal variation in size of freshwater pulmonate mollusks (Mollusca: Gastropoda: Pulmonata) in Western Siberia

The size of shells in some freshwater pulmonate mollusk species abundant in Western Siberia (Lymnaea fragilis, L. terebra, Planorbis planorbis, and Anisus leucostoma) is relatively large in the south and decreases in the north. It is supposed that this phenomenon is explained by the fact that the season with conditions allowing the growth of mollusks is shorter in the north than in the south of Western Siberia.