Mercury in the traditional diet of indigenous peoples in Canada

Traditional food of indigenous people in Canada, particularly fish and marine mammal meat, has mercury (Hg) concentrations exceeding the Canadian consumption guideline level of 0.5 microg/g. Health effects of Hg in traditional food are, therefore, a concern. We conducted contaminant exposure assessments in 28 indigenous communities in Canada. Hg exposure was greatest among communities with high use of marine mammals as food. Exposure among other communities was variable. Recent adoption of a lower intake guideline for women of reproductive age and by Health Canada may decrease the use of traditional food, and could result in other health problems, such as increased risk of diabetes and cardiovascular disease.     

Managing flood risks in the Mekong Delta: How to address emerging challenges under climate change and socioeconomic developments

Climate change and accelerating socioeconomic developments increasingly challenge flood-risk management in the Vietnamese Mekong River Delta—a typical large, economically dynamic and highly vulnerable delta. This study identifies and addresses the emerging challenges for flood-risk management. Furthermore, we identify and analyse response solutions, focusing on meaningful configurations of the individual solutions and how they can be tailored to specific challenges using expert surveys, content analysis techniques and statistical inferences. Our findings show that the challenges for flood-risk management are diverse, but critical challenges predominantly arise from the current governance and institutional settings. The top-three challenges include weak collaboration, conflicting management objectives and low responsiveness to new issues. We identified 114 reported solutions and developed six flood management strategies that are tailored to specific challenges. We conclude that the current technology-centric flood management approach is insufficient given the rapid socioecological changes. This approach therefore should be adapted towards a more balanced management configuration where technical and infrastructural measures are combined with institutional and governance resolutions. Insights from this study contribute to the emerging repertoire of contemporary flood management solutions, especially through their configurations and tailoring to specific challenges.     

Vulnerability to climate variability and change in East Timor

This paper presents the results of a preliminary study of climate vulnerability in East Timor. It shows the results of projections of climate change in East Timor. The country's climate may become hotter, drier, and increasingly variable. Sea levels are likely to rise. The paper then considers the implications of these changes on three natural resources--water, soils, and the coastal zone--and finds all to be sensitive to changes in climate and sea level. Changes in the abundance and distribution of these resources is likely to cause a reduction in agricultural production and food security, and sea-level rise is likely to damage coastal areas, including Dili, the capital city.     

Interactions of climate,socio-economics,and global mercury pollution in the North Water

Despite the remoteness of the North Water, Northwest Greenland, the local Inughuit population is affected by global anthropogenic pollution and climate change. Using a cross-disciplinary approach combining Mercury (Hg) analysis, catch information, and historical and anthropological perspectives, this article elucidates how the traditional diet is compromised by Hg pollution originating from lower latitudes. In a new approach we here show how the Inughuits in Avanersuaq are subject to high Hg exposure from the hunted traditional food, consisting of mainly marine seabirds and mammals. Violation of the provisional tolerably yearly intake of Hg, on average by a factor of 11 (range 7–15) over the last 20 years as well as the provisional tolerably monthly intake by a factor of 6 (range 2–16), raises health concerns. The surplus of Selenium (Se) in wildlife tissues including narwhals showed Se:Hg molar ratios of 1.5, 2.3, and 16.7 in muscle, liver, and mattak, respectively, likely to provide some protection against the high Hg exposure.     

Quantifying flexibility in combating climate change: modelling the implications of flexibility mechanisms in the climate change negotiations

With the 'International Trading of Emission Allowances' (ITEA) model, we have analysed the flexibility mechanisms provided for in the Kyoto Protocol. Three main mechanisms of flexibility are analysed differentiation of initial commitments, multiple sources, and locational flexibility (trading). A differentiation of commitments could help the evolution of commitments, especially with a trading regime, which could create some income. Multiple sources give a large pool of cheaper abatement options from the non-CO₂ gases, and costs are reduced substantially. Finally, a trading regime would make available even more cheap abatement options, mainly in the economies in transition (EITs). This regime would provide income support for the EITs, helping them to speed up their transition. The combined mechanisms reduce dramatically the costs for the compliance with the protocol for the whole of Annex I; they fall to zero in some cases. Two other main findings deal with the EU and the EITs. Internal trading would ease the debate on the internal distribution of commitments within the EU under the bubble provision, reducing costs significantly. The allocations in the protocol for the EITs probably create a huge excess - 'hot air' - which could seriously harm the agreement if it is not dealt with. Excluding the hot air will increase costs for the quota importers, and it will also slightly reduce income for the relevant EITs, but this is offset by a rising price, which also benefits other EITs.     

General features of the arctic relevant to climate change in freshwater ecosystems

Large variations exist in the size, abundance and biota of the two principal categories of freshwater ecosystems, lotic (flowing water; e.g., rivers, streams, deltas and estuaries) and lentic (standing water; lakes, ponds and wetlands) found across the circumpolar Arctic. Arctic climate, many components of which exhibit strong variations along latitudinal gradients, directly affects a range of physical, chemical and biological processes in these aquatic systems. Furthermore, arctic climate creates additional indirect ecological effects through the control of terrestrial hydrologic systems and processes, particularly those associated with cryospheric components such as permafrost, freshwater ice and snow accumulation/ablation. The ecological structure and function of arctic freshwater systems are also controlled by external processes and conditions, particularly those in the headwaters of the major arctic rivers and in the adjacent marine environment. The movement of physical, chemical and biotic components through the interlinked lentic and lotic freshwater systems are major determinants of arctic freshwater ecology.     

Sensitivity of tropospheric oxidants to global chemical and climate change

A photochemical model has been used to quantify the sensitivity of the tropospheric oxidants O₃ and OH to changes in CH₄, CO and NO emissions and to perturbations in climate and stratospheric chemistry. Coefficients of the form ∂1n[O₃]/∂1n[X] and ∂1n[OH]/∂1n[X], where [X] = flux of CH₄, CO, NO; stratospheric O₃ and H₂O have been calculated for a number of “chemically coherent” regions (e.g. nonpolluted continental, nonpolluted marine, urban) at low and middle latitudes. Sensitivities in O₃ and OH vary with regional emissions patterns and are nonlinear within a given region as [X] changes. In most cases increasing CH₄ and CO emissions will suppress OH (negative coefficients) and increase O₃ (positive coefficients) except in areas where NO and O₃ influenced by pollution are sufficient to increase OH. Stratospheric O₃ depletion will tend to decrease O₃ (except in high NO_x areas) and increase OH through enhanced u.v. photolysis. Increased levels of water vapor (one possible outcome of a global warming) will also decrease O₃ and increase OH. We conclude that in most regions, NO, CO and CH₄ emission increases will suppress OH and increase O₃, but these trends may be opposed by stratospheric O₃ depletion and climate change. A regional survey of OH and O₃ levels suggests that the tropics have a pivotal role in determining the earth's future oxidizing capacity.     

Agricultural vulnerability over the Chinese Loess Plateau in response to climate change: Exposure,sensitivity, and adaptive capacity

Understanding how the vulnerability of agricultural production to climate change can differ spatially has practical significance to sustainable management of agricultural systems worldwide. Accordingly, this study developed a conceptual framework to assess the agricultural vulnerability of 243 rural counties on the Chinese Loess Plateau. Indicators representing the climate/agriculture interface were selected to describe exposure and sensitivity, while stocks of certain capitals were used to describe adaptive capacity. A vulnerability index for each county was calculated and the spatial distribution was mapped. Results showed that exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity occur independently, with most contributing indicator values concentrated in a narrow range after normalization. Within the 49 most vulnerable counties, which together encompass 81 % of the vulnerability index range, 42 were characterized by high exposure and sensitivity but low adaptive capacity. The most vulnerable area was found to be located in the central northeast–southwest belt of Loess Plateau. Adaptation measures for both ecological restoration and economic development are needed and potential adaptation options need further investigation.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0727-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Questioning complacency: climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation in Norway

Most European assessments of climate change impacts have been carried out on sectors and ecosystems, providing a narrow understanding of what climate change really means for society. Furthermore, the main focus has been on technological adaptations, with less attention paid to the process of climate change adaptation. In this article, we present and analyze findings from recent studies on climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation in Norway, with the aim of identifying the wider social impacts of climate change. Three main lessons can be drawn. First, the potential thresholds and indirect effects may be more important than the direct, sectoral effects. Second, highly sensitive sectors, regions, and communities combine with differential social vulnerability to create both winners and losers. Third, high national levels of adaptive capacity mask the barriers and constraints to adaptation, particularly among those who are most vulnerable to climate change. Based on these results, we question complacency in Norway and other European countries regarding climate change impacts and adaptation. We argue that greater attention needs to be placed on the social context of climate change impacts and on the processes shaping vulnerability and adaptation.     

Socio-economic vulnerability to climate change in the central mountainous region of eastern Mexico

Climate change effects are expected to be more severe for some segments of society than others. In Mexico, climate variability associated with climate change has important socio-economic and environmental impacts. From the central mountainous region of eastern Veracruz, Mexico, we analyzed data of total annual precipitation and mean annual temperature from 26 meteorological stations (1922–2008) and from General Circulation Models. We developed climate change scenarios based on the observed trends with projections to 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2100, finding considerable local climate changes with reductions in precipitation of over 700 mm and increases in temperature of ~9°C for the year 2100. Deforested areas located at windward were considered more vulnerable, representing potential risk for natural environments, local communities, and the main crops cultivated (sugarcane, coffee, and corn). Socio-economic vulnerability is exacerbated in areas where temperature increases and precipitation decreases.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0690-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Opinions of 12 to 13-year-olds in Austria and Australia on the concern,cause and imminence of climate change

Early adolescence (12–13 years old) is a critical but under-researched demographic for the formation of attitudes related to climate change. We address this important area by exploring adolescent views about climate change. This paper presents opinions collected from surveys of 463 1st-year secondary school students (12–13 years old) in public secondary schools in inner-urban centres in Austria and Australia on whether climate change is (1) something about which to worry, (2) caused by humans and (3) happening now. Eligible respondents in both countries showed similar levels of agreement that climate change was probably or definitely something we should (1) worry about (84.6% Austria, 89.1% Australia), which is significantly higher than either country’s adult population. Eligible respondents agreed that climate change probably or definitely is (2) caused by humans (75.6% Austria, 83.6% Australia) and that climate change is probably or definitely something that is (3) happening now (73.1% Austria, 87.5% Australia). Their response differed from the respective adult populations, but in opposite directions. Our results suggest that socio-cultural worldview may not have as much influence on this age group as it does on the respective adult populations and suggests that this age group would be receptive and ready for climate science education and engagement initiatives.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01356-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Managing climate change impacts to enhance the resilience and sustainability of Fennoscandian forests

Projected warming in Sweden and other Fennoscandian countries will probably increase growth rates of forest trees near their northern limits, increase the probability of new pest outbreaks, and foster northerly migration of both native and exotic species. The greatest challenges for sustainable forestry are to restore and enhance the ecological and socioeconomic diversity of intensively managed forested landscapes. With appropriate management, climate warming may facilitate the regeneration of this diversity. Experimental transplant gardens along latitudinal or altitudinal gradients and high-resolution maps of expected future climate could provide a scientific basis for predicting the climate response of potential migrant species. Management of corridors and assisted migration could speed the movement of appropriate species.     

A review of the global climate change impacts,adaptation, and sustainable mitigation measures

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Climate change is a long-lasting change in the weather arrays across tropics to polls. It is a global threat that has embarked on to put stress on...     

Terrestrial water cycle and the impact of climate change

The terrestrial water cycle and the impact of climate change are critical for agricultural and natural ecosystems. In this paper, we assess both by running a macro-scale water balance model under a baseline condition and 2 General Circulation Model (GCM)-based climate change scenarios. The results show that in 2021-2030, water demand will increase worldwide due to climate change. Water shortage is expected to worsen in western Asia, the Arabian Peninsula, northern and southern Africa, northeastern Australia, southwestern North America, and central South America. A significant increase in surface runoff is expected in southern Asia and a significant decrease is expected in northern South America. These changes will have implications for regional environment and socioeconomics.     

Aviation and global climate change in the 21st century

Aviation emissions contribute to the radiative forcing (RF) of climate. Of importance are emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), aerosols and their precursors (soot and sulphate), and increased cloudiness in the form of persistent linear contrails and induced-cirrus cloudiness. The recent Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) quantified aviation's RF contribution for 2005 based upon 2000 operations data. Aviation has grown strongly over the past years, despite world-changing events in the early 2000s; the average annual passenger traffic growth rate was 5.3% yr^?1 between 2000 and 2007, resulting in an increase of passenger traffic of 38%. Presented here are updated values of aviation RF for 2005 based upon new operations data that show an increase in traffic of 22.5%, fuel use of 8.4% and total aviation RF of 14% (excluding induced-cirrus enhancement) over the period 2000–2005. The lack of physical process models and adequate observational data for aviation-induced cirrus effects limit confidence in quantifying their RF contribution. Total aviation RF (excluding induced cirrus) in 2005 was ～55 mW m^?2 (23–87 mW m^?2, 90% likelihood range), which was 3.5% (range 1.3–10%, 90% likelihood range) of total anthropogenic forcing. Including estimates for aviation-induced cirrus RF increases the total aviation RF in 2005–78 mW m^?2 (38–139 mW m^?2, 90% likelihood range), which represents 4.9% of total anthropogenic forcing (2–14%, 90% likelihood range). Future scenarios of aviation emissions for 2050 that are consistent with IPCC SRES A1 and B2 scenario assumptions have been presented that show an increase of fuel usage by factors of 2.7–3.9 over 2000. Simplified calculations of total aviation RF in 2050 indicate increases by factors of 3.0–4.0 over the 2000 value, representing 4–4.7% of total RF (excluding induced cirrus). An examination of a range of future technological options shows that substantive reductions in aviation fuel usage are possible only with the introduction of radical technologies. Incorporation of aviation into an emissions trading system offers the potential for overall (i.e., beyond the aviation sector) CO₂ emissions reductions. Proposals exist for introduction of such a system at a European level, but no agreement has been reached at a global level.     

Recent and future signatures of climate change in Europe

A set of six regional climate model experiments is investigated for future changes in daily temperature and precipitation in Europe. Changes in the probability distributions for these variables are studied. It is found that the asymmetry of these distributions change differently depending on location and season. Large summertime changes in extremely high temperatures in central, eastern and southern Europe are followed by higher than average temperature increases on warm days in general. Likewise, temperatures on cold days increase much more than the average temperature increase during winter in eastern and northern Europe. A comparison with historical data on wintertime temperature shows that the model simulated and observed daily variability are similar. In particular, the much stronger increase in temperatures on cold days, compared to the average temperature increase as observed in warm compared to cold historical periods, is simulated also by the model. The contribution from heavy precipitation events is simulated to increase over most parts of Europe in all seasons.     

Introducing an integrated climate change perspective in POPs modelling, monitoring and regulation

This paper presents a review on the implications of climate change on the monitoring, modelling and regulation of persistent organic pollutants (POPs). Current research gaps are also identified and discussed.Long-term data sets are essential to identify relationships between climate fluctuations and changes in chemical species distribution. Reconstructing the influence of climatic changes on POPs environmental behaviour is very challenging in some local studies, and some insights can be obtained by the few available dated sediment cores or by studying POPs response to inter-annual climate fluctuations. Knowledge gaps and future projections can be studied by developing and applying various modelling tools, identifying compounds susceptibility to climate change, local and global effects, orienting international policies.Long-term monitoring strategies and modelling exercises taking into account climate change should be considered when devising new regulatory plans in chemicals management.     

Omega-3 nutraceuticals,climate change and threats to the environment: The cases of Antarctic krill and Calanus finmarchicus

The nutraceutical market for EPA (eicosapentaenoic acid) and DHA (docosahexaenoic acid) is promoting fishing for Euphasia superba (Antarctic krill) in the Southern Ocean and Calanus finmarchicus in Norwegian waters. This industry argues that these species are underexploited, but they are essential in their ecosystems, and climate change is altering their geographical distribution. In this perspective, we advocate the cessation of fishing for these species to produce nutraceuticals with EPA and DHA. We argue that this is possible because, contrary to what this industry promotes, the benefits of these fatty acids only seem significant to specific population groups, and not for the general population. Next, we explain that this is desirable because there is evidence that these fisheries may interact with the impact of climate change. Greener sources of EPA and DHA are already available on the market, and their reasonable use would ease pressure on the Arctic and Antarctic ecosystems.     

Anthropogenic climate change drives melting of glaciers in the Himalaya

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - The Himalayan glaciers provide water to a large population in south Asia for a variety of purposes and ecosystem services. As a result, regional...     

Bias correction of regional climate model simulations for the impact assessment of the climate change in Egypt

This study projected the future temperature change for Egypt during the late of this century (2071–2100) for three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5), by correcting regional climate model (RCM) simulations of average, maximum, and minimum daily temperature with reference to observed data of 26 stations. Four commonly used methods of bias correction have been applied and evaluated: linear scaling, variance scaling, and theoretical and empirical quantile mapping. The compromise programing results of the applied evaluation criteria show that the best method is the variance scaling, and thus it was applied to transfer the correction factor to the projections. All temperature indices are expected to increase significantly under all scenarios and reach the highest record by the end of the century, i.e., the expected increase in average, maximum, and minimum temperature ranges between 4.08–7.41 °C, 4.55–7.89 °C, and 3.88–7.23 °C, respectively. The largest temperature rise will occur in the summer, with the highest increase in the maximum (minimum) temperature of 10.9 °C (10 °C) in July and August under RCP8.5. The maximum (minimum) winter temperature, on the other hand, will drop by a maximum of 2 °C (1.35 °C) under RCP2.6. The Western Desert and Upper Egypt are the regions most affected by climate change, while the northern region of Egypt is the least affected. These findings would help in impact assessment and adaptation strategies and encourage further investigation to evaluate various climate models in order to obtain a comprehensive assessment of the climate change impacts on different hydrometeorological processes in Egypt.