Bottom-up uncertainty estimates of global ammonia emissions from global agricultural production systems

Here we present an uncertainty analysis of NH₃ emissions from agricultural production systems based on a global NH₃ emission inventory with a 5×5 min resolution. Of all results the mean is given with a range (10% and 90% percentile). The uncertainty range for the global NH₃ emission from agricultural systems is 27–38 (with a mean of 32) Tg NH₃-N yr⁻¹, N fertilizer use contributing 10–12 (11) Tg yr⁻¹ and livestock production 16–27 (21) Tg yr⁻¹. Most of the emissions from livestock production come from animal houses and storage systems (31–55%); smaller contributions come from the spreading of animal manure (23–38%) and grazing animals (17–37%). This uncertainty analysis allows for identifying and improving those input parameters with a major influence on the results. The most important determinants of the uncertainty related to the global agricultural NH₃ emission comprise four parameters (N excretion rates, NH₃ emission rates for manure in animal houses and storage, the fraction of the time that ruminants graze and the fraction of non-agricultural use of manure) specific to mixed and landless systems, and total animal stocks. Nitrogen excretion rates and NH₃ emission rates from animal houses and storage systems are shown consistently to be the most important parameters in most parts of the world. Input parameters for pastoral systems are less relevant. However, there are clear differences between world regions and individual countries, reflecting the differences in livestock production systems.     

Terrestrial ecosystem recovery--modelling the effects of reduced acidic inputs and increased inputs of sea-salts induced by global change

The reduced emissions of acidifying sulfur and nitrogen in Europe since the late 1970s will be further reduced when the Gothenburg protocol is fully implemented by 2010. Here we address the consequences for the recovery of acidified terrestrial ecosystems using the acidification model MAGIC applied to 3 large-scale "clean rain" experiments, the so-called roof experiments at Risdalsheia, Norway; G?rdsj?n, Sweden, and Klosterhede, Denmark. Implementation of the Gothenburg protocol will initiate recovery of the soils at all 3 sites by rebuilding base saturation. The rate of recovery is small and base saturation increases less than 5% over the next 30 years. A climate-induced increase in storm severity will increase the sea-salt input to the ecosystems. This will provide additional base cations to the soils and more than double the rate of the recovery, but also lead to strong acid pulses following high sea-salt inputs as the deposited base cations exchange with the acidity stored in the soil. Future recovery of soils and runoff at acidified catchments will thus depend on the amount and rate of reduction of acid deposition, and in the case of systems near the coast, the frequency and intensity of sea-salt episodes as well.     

Fueling global fishing fleets

Over the course of the 20th century, fossil fuels became the dominant energy input to most of the world's fisheries. Although various analyses have quantified fuel inputs to individual fisheries, to date, no attempt has been made to quantify the global scale and to map the distribution of fuel consumed by fisheries. By integrating data representing more than 250 fisheries from around the world with spatially resolved catch statistics for 2000, we calculate that globally, fisheries burned almost 50 billion L of fuel in the process of landing just over 80 million t of marine fish and invertebrates for an average rate of 620 L t(-1). Consequently, fisheries account for about 1.2% of global oil consumption, an amount equivalent to that burned by the Netherlands, the 18th-ranked oil consuming country globally, and directly emit more than 130 million t of CO2 into the atmosphere. From an efficiency perspective, the energy content of the fuel burned by global fisheries is 12.5 times greater than the edible-protein energy content of the resulting catch.     

An environmental measurement for a dynamic and endogenous global environmental Kuznets curve in the global context

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Planetary boundaries (PB) is a novel conceptual framework that assesses the state of processes fundamental to the stability of the Earth system....     

The problem of predicting global food production

This paper examines the problem of the development of models capable of predicting the capacity of the global food production system. In particular, it identifies the various factors influencing the food production, and estimates their relative influence and predictability. The paper discusses also the problems connected with coupling of models representing the "driving" forces, the Earth system consisting of the atmosphere, the ocean and land surface, and food production. The overall conclusions drawn are: i) The time is not yet ripe for designing a comprehensive coupled model for predicting the global food production that takes into account all the factors having a significant influence; ii) the main difficulties are the modelling of the driving forces, e.g. socioeconomic and political factors, and iii) despite these problems, it is judged that results obtained with existing models are capable of providing concrete information for implementation of adaptation and mitigation measures.     

On the scientific basis for global warming scenarios

The scientific basis for current projections of significant warming due to enhanced minor greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is reviewed. Care is taken to distinguish the issue of changes in radiative forcing at the earth's surface from the issue of the climatic response to this forcing. With respect to the former, it is noted that the predicted forcing is, in fact, small (2 W m(-2) at the surface for a doubling of CO(2), or less than 1% of the absorbed solar flux). With respect to the latter, it is noted that predictions of significant warming are dependent on the presence of large positive feedbacks serving to amplify the response. The largest of these feedbacks in current models involves water vapor at upper levels in the troposphere. This feedback appears to be largely a model artifact, and evidence is presented that models may even have the wrong sign for this feedback. The possibility is examined that the response of climate to major volcanic eruptions may provide a test of the climate system's amplification. The basis for this possibility is the fact that the response delay of the ocean-atmosphere system is proportional to the system gain.     

Predictive modeling of effects under global change

The status of computer simulation models from around the world for evaluating the possible ecological, environmental, and societal consequences of global change is presented in this paper. In addition, a brief synopsis of the state of the science of these impacts is included. Issues considered include future changes in climate and patterns of land use for societal needs. Models discussed relate to vegetation (e.g. crop), soil, bio-geochemistry, water, and wildlife responses to conventional, forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation. Also described are models of these responses, alone and interactively, to increased CO(2), other air pollutants and UV-B radiation, as the state of the science allows. Further, models of land-use change are included. Additionally, global multiple sector models of environment, natural resources, human population dynamics, economics, energy, and political relations are reviewed for integrated impact assessment. To the extent available, information on computer software and hardware requirements is presented for the various models. The paper concludes with comments about using these technologies as they relate to ecological risk assessment for policy decision analysis. Such an effort is hampered by considerable uncertainties with the output of existing models, because of the uncertainties associated with input data and the definitions of their dose-response relationships. The concluding suggestions point the direction for new developments in modeling and analyses that are needed for the 21st century.     

Defense and avoidance of ozone under global change

The level II approach of the critical loads concept adopted by the UNECE aims at a flux based evaluation and takes into account environmental factors governing stomatal conductance. These factors will probably be affected by global change. The flux concept predicts that a decrease in stomatal conductance would protect trees from air pollution effects by decreasing uptake. However, experimental evidence is inconclusive. Numerous results suggest that pollutants and factors subject to global change (drought, CO(2)) may interact and even exacerbate effects, probably because antioxidative defense systems are involved in both, defense against pollutant effects and protection from natural stress. An effective pollutant dose, which is weighted by physiological defense capacity, would better predict such effects. In this review paper we argue that the flux-based approach is imperfect, because global change effects may also modify the physiological susceptibility to ozone. Instead, a flux concept weighted by defense capacity should be tested.     

Spectral estimation of global levels of atmospheric pollutants

Underlying levels of atmospheric pollutants, assumed to be governed by smoothing mechanisms due to atmospheric dispersion, can be estimated from global emissions source databases on greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting compounds. However, spatial data may be contaminated with noise or even missing or zero-valued at many locations. Therefore, a problem that arises is how to extract the underlying smooth levels. This paper sets out a structural spatial model that assumes data evolve across a global grid constrained by second-order smoothing restrictions. The frequency-domain approach is particularly suitable for global datasets, reduces the computational burden associated with two-dimensional models and avoids cumbersome zero-inflated skewed distributions. Confidence intervals of the underlying levels are also obtained. An application to the estimation of global levels of atmospheric pollutants from anthropogenic emissions illustrates the technique which may also be useful in the analysis of other environmental datasets of similar characteristics.     

European abatement of surface ozone in a global perspective

EU's programme Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) is presently revising the policy on air quality which will lead to the adoption of a thematic strategy on air pollution under the Sixth Environmental Action Programme by mid-2005. For the abatement of surface ozone it is becoming evident that processes outside European control will be crucial for meeting long-term aims and air quality guidelines in Europe in the future. Measurements and modelling results indicate that there is a strong link between climate change and surface ozone. A warmer and dryer European climate is very likely to lead to increased ozone concentrations. Furthermore, increased anthropogenic emissions in developing economies in Asia are likely to raise the hemispheric background level of ozone. A significant increase in the background concentration of ozone has been observed at several sites in Northern Europe although the underlying causes are not settled. The photochemical formation of tropospheric ozone from increased concentrations of methane and CO may also lead to a higher ozone level on a global scale. Gradually, these effects may outweigh the effect of the reduced European ozone precursor emissions. This calls for a global or hemispheric perspective in the revision of the European air quality policy for ozone.     

Response and potential of agroforestry crops under global change

The use of agroforestry crops is a promising tool for reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration through fossil fuel substitution. In particular, plantations characterised by high yields such as short rotation forestry (SRF) are becoming popular worldwide for biomass production and their role acknowledged in the Kyoto Protocol. While their contribution to climate change mitigation is being investigated, the impact of climate change itself on growth and productivity of these plantations needs particular attention, since their management might need to be modified accordingly. Besides the benefits deriving from the establishment of millions of hectares of these plantations, there is a risk of increased release into the atmosphere of volatile organic compounds (VOC) emitted in large amounts by most of the species commonly used. These hydrocarbons are known to play a crucial role in tropospheric ozone formation. This might represent a negative feedback, especially in regions already characterized by elevated ozone level.     

Economic instruments, transport and the global environment

The use of economic instruments, such as charges, in abating climate change is assessed, with special reference to their application in the transport sector. The general strategies and instruments for global environmental policies are presented. The role of economic instruments in this context is highlighted, both in terms of theory and of application. Economic instruments are then analysed from the perspective of transport policies. Climate and transport appear to have different perspectives on economic instruments. The analysis leads to a framework for developing climate-related economic instruments in transport. These may result in substantial economic savings, especially if approached internationally and if distributional and institutional problems can be overcome. The integration of climate concerns into transport policies can be improved, and several suggestions are made in this respect.     

The ocean as part of the global carbon cycle

The ocean plays a central role in the global carbon cycle being by far the largest active reservoir. Atmospheric CO₂ level depends on the CO₂concentration in the ocean surface layer, which is relatively low compared to mean oceanic values due to biological and physical carbon pumps. Although the ocean may take up much of the carbon released by the increased burning of fossil fuels, this capacity is limited because of the chemical buffering and a mismatch in time scales (oceanic mixing is much slower than anthropogenic perturbations).     

The law, agency and global climate change

Consideration of policy for addressing global climate change must start with a recognition of the conflicting interests of the industrialised and the developing nations. Effective resource management regimes require a structure of incentives that will induce nations with disparate interests to cooperate and to resist temptations to defect from international agreements. Agency theory offers insights as to how such resource management regimes might be sustained. Industrialised nations must be prepared to offer inducements to agrarian nations to encourage the maintenance of tropical biomass. Moreover, technical assistance to encourage the development of technologies that are efficient in the use of carbon fuels is also essential.     

Modeling biogeochemical processes of phosphorus for global food supply

Harvests of crops, their trade and consumption, soil erosion, fertilization and recycling of organic waste generate fluxes of phosphorus in and out of the soil that continuously change the worldwide spatial distribution of total phosphorus in arable soils. Furthermore, due to variability in the properties of the virgin soils and the different histories of agricultural practices, on a planetary scale, the distribution of total soil phosphorus is very heterogeneous. There are two key relationships that determine how this distribution and its change over time affect crop yields. One is the relationship between total soil phosphorus and bioavailable soil phosphorus and the second is the relationship between bioavailable soil phosphorus and yields. Both of these depend on environmental variables such as soil properties and climate. We propose a model in which these relationships are described probabilistically and integrated with the dynamic feedbacks of P cycling in the human ecosystem. The model we propose is a first step towards evaluating the large-scale effects of different nutrient management scenarios. One application of particular interest is to evaluate the vulnerability of different regions to an increased scarcity in P mineral fertilizers. Another is to evaluate different regions’ deficiency in total soil phosphorus compared with the level at which they could sustain their maximum potential yield without external mineral inputs of phosphorus but solely by recycling organic matter to close the nutrient cycle.     

Carbon emission from global hydroelectric reservoirs revisited

Substantial greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from hydropower reservoirs have been of great concerns recently, yet the significant carbon emitters of drawdown area and reservoir downstream (including spillways and turbines as well as river reaches below dams) have not been included in global carbon budget. Here, we revisit GHG emission from hydropower reservoirs by considering reservoir surface area, drawdown zone and reservoir downstream. Our estimates demonstrate around 301.3 Tg carbon dioxide (CO₂)/year and 18.7 Tg methane (CH₄)/year from global hydroelectric reservoirs, which are much higher than recent observations. The sum of drawdown and downstream emission, which is generally overlooked, represents 42 % CO₂ and 67 % CH₄ of the total emissions from hydropower reservoirs. Accordingly, the global average emissions from hydropower are estimated to be 92 g CO₂/kWh and 5.7 g CH₄/kWh. Nonetheless, global hydroelectricity could currently reduce approximate 2,351 Tg CO₂eq/year with respect to fuel fossil plant alternative. The new findings show a substantial revision of carbon emission from the global hydropower reservoirs.     

Time series analyses of global change data

The hypothesis that statistical analyses of historical time series data can be used to separate the influences of natural variations from anthropogenic sources on global climate change is tested. Point, regional, national, and global temperature data are analyzed. Trend analyses for the period 1901-1987 suggest mean annual temperatures increased (in degrees C per century) globally at the rate of about 0.5, in the USA at about 0.3, in the south-western USA desert region at about 1.2, and at the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed in south-eastern Arizona at about 0.8. However, the rates of temperature change are not constant but vary within the 87-year period. Serial correlation and spectral density analysis of the temperature time series showed weak periodicities at various frequencies. The only common periodicity among the temperature series is an apparent cycle of about 43 years. The temperature time series were correlated with the Wolf sunspot index, atmospheric CO(2) concentrations interpolated from the Siple ice core data, and atmospheric CO(2) concentration data from Mauna Loa measurements. Correlation analysis of temperature data with concurrent data on atmospheric CO(2) concentrations and the Wolf sunspot index support previously reported significant correlation over the 1901-1987 period. Correlation analysis between temperature, atmospheric CO(2) concentration, and the Wolf sunspot index for the shorter period, 1958-1987, when continuous Mauna Loa CO(2) data are available, suggest significant correlation between global warming and atmospheric CO(2) concentrations but no significant correlation between global warming and the Wolf sunspot index. This may be because the Wolf sunspot index apparently increased from 1901 until about 1960 and then decreased thereafter, while global warming apparently continued to increase through 1987. Correlation of sunspot activity with global warming may be spurious but additional analyses are required to test this hypothesis. Given the inconclusive correlation between temperature and solar activity, the significant intercorrelation between time, temperature, and atmospheric CO(2) concentrations, and the suggestion of weak periodicity in the temperature data, additional research is needed to separate the anthropogenic component from the natural variability in temperature when assessing local, regional, and global warming trends.     

A global transport model of lead in the atmosphere

A global atmospheric transport model is used to calculate lead concentrations in the atmosphere. The model performance is evaluated through comparisons with observations in Europe. The model results of lead concentrations in surface air were compared with measurements in East Asia. The detailed comparisons showed generally good agreement for recent decades, although systematic underestimation was found in China. Anthropogenic lead emissions in China are estimated from economic statistics to be 56 000 t yr^?1, which is not small considering the economic scale of China. The underestimations suggest a hidden source of lead emissions. The emissions in Japan and Korea are derived from optimization by the model. The magnitude is about 2000 t yr^?1, which is much greater than that reported by the Pollutant Release and Transfer Register in Japan and Toxics Release Inventory in Korea.     

Statistical inquiry into the causes of global temperature changes

Observed changes in average global temperatures over time have led to two general avenues of discussion in the environmental literature. The scientific community has concentrated on the statistical detection of global warming and the determination of biological and industrial factors causing average world temperatures to rise. A second avenue of thought considers the issue of economic abatement by attempting to measure the pecuniary costs of global warming and the elimination of factors influencing this problem. This paper concentrates not on developing an economic model of global warming and environmental damage, but rather on examining the problem from a purely statistical vantage point. Utilising annual data from 1950 to 1991 and optimally determined vector auto regression specifications, it is shown that general industrial growth and greenhouse gas emission levels statistically cause a persistent increase in average global temperatures. In addition, this analysis shows that increasing average world temperatures have a statistically significant negative causal impact on agricultural productivity. Given that global warming is a long-term process culminating from decades of industrial activity, statistically significant causal results derived in this paper using short term data are interesting. Statistical results suggest that trends in average temperatures respond to short-run fluctuations in industrial activity and population growth.