Risk analysis system for the transport of hazardous materials

IntroductionIn this paper, a literature study on risk analysis systems for the transport of hazardous materials was conducted.ResultsThe insights that resulted from this literature review have led to the development of a refined approach to map the risk of hazmat transport in Flanders based on historical accident data. The proposed framework allows setting up an overall risk map for hazmat transport by different transport modes. Additionally, a methodology to calculate a local accident risk, which takes local infrastructure parameters and accident data into account, is being introduced. In the presented framework one of the general principles is that the risk of a catastrophic hazmat incident can be divided into two parts, which can both be validated on the basis of accident data: (a) the calculation of the general probability of the occurrence of an accident based on international accident data of transport of hazardous materials – this is the basis for the global risk map, and (b) the calculation of the local probability of the occurrence of an accident based on accident data and infrastructure parameters of the complete available freight transport in Flanders – this is the basis for the local risk map. The ratio between these two results in a locality parameter, which represents the local specific circumstances that can lead to an accident.ConclusionsThis evaluation framework makes it possible to estimate the risks of hazmat transport along a specific route for transport by road, rail, inland navigation and even pipelines.     

Fused CFD-interpolation model for real-time prediction of hazardous gas dispersion in emergency rescue

Accidental releases of hazardous gases in chemical industries can pose great threats to public security. The computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model is commonly applied to predict gas dispersion in complex structured areas. It can provide good accuracy but it is too time-consuming to be used in emergency response. To reduce computation time while keep acceptable accuracy, this paper proposes several fused CFD-interpolation models which combine CFD model with different interpolation methods. Spline, linear and nearest interpolation methods are used. A CFD simulations database is created ahead of time which can be quickly recalled for emergency usage and unknown situations can be predicted instantly by interpolation methods instead of time-consuming CFD model. Fused models were applied to a case study involving a hypothetical propane release with varying conditions and validated against CFD model. The validation shows that prediction accuracy of these fusion models is acceptable. Among these models, CFD-Spline interpolation model performs best. It is faster than CFD model by a factor of 75 and is potentially a good method to be applied to real-time prediction.     

Generic event trees and probabilities for the release of different types of hazardous materials

To simplify quantitative risk analysis, the initiating events leading to loss of containment are normally described using generic hypotheses. For example, the following hypothesis is applied to the loss of containment from a storage tank: instantaneous release of the complete inventory, continuous release of the complete inventory in 10 min, and continuous release from a hole with a diameter of 10 mm. Once the initiating events have been specified, the corresponding event trees must be drawn to establish the sequences from each initiating event to the diverse final outcomes or accident scenarios, which will depend on the properties of the released material or on other specific factors. In this paper we propose, in a systematic way, a set of short generic event trees for the main loss of containment scenarios involving different types of hazardous materials. Even though most of them have been taken from the literature (BEVI Reference Manual), we have modified some of them, added the corresponding intermediate probabilities (immediate ignition, delayed ignition, flame front acceleration, etc.) obtained from a literature review and expert judgment, and associated the use of each event tree to the hazardous properties of the material (flammability, volatility and toxicity) and to its category according to EC labeling directives.     

Risk management of terrorist attacks in the transport of hazardous materials using dynamic geoevents

This paper focuses attention on emergency management associated with a terrorist attack in the transport of hazardous materials in urban areas. The case study is in an urban area, a potential target for terrorist attacks due to its high vulnerability. Since it is not possible to predict where and when an attack will occur, the risk associated with terrorism is complex. It is only possible to identify the critical points for potential actions where counter measure must be applied. In the case of incidents which evolve relatively slowly, mitigation actions can be applied. The use of dynamic geoevents permits the immediate location of the event on a georeferenced map and the possibility of having a dynamic evolution of the scenario and of the number of people involved. The dynamic scenario has been created using the output of a consequence simulation code and a GIS software. Some assumptions were necessary but, since the aim of the paper is to define the procedure for the construction of the dynamic geoevent, these can be considered acceptable. The method will be further implemented in future.     

Risk analysis for road and rail transport of hazardous materials: a GIS approach

An approach to transportation risk analysis for road and rail transport of dangerous goods is proposed, which is based on the use of geographic information systems (GIS) to manage territorial information, coupled with a product data bank in a risk evaluation tool. Such an approach enables to accurately take into account the local data affecting risk analysis, such as population, accident rate, and weather conditions along all the route, by means of a system which can be easily updated. The resulting risk evaluation tool assists in the step of route identification and allows to rapidly perform an accurate transportation risk analysis, for a single transportation event as well as for multiple substances, trips and itineraries.     

危险品道路运输过程风险管理体系探讨

危险品道路运输是一个复杂的系统,风险管理涉及危险品运输规划和事故应急响应。本文介绍了现有的危险品运输风险管理模式和基本管理原则,基于运输风险评估、运输路径优化、应急单位优化选址和选线、人员疏散管理以及事件决策管理等构建了危险品道路运输过程风险管理体系,阐述了系统基本要素之间的相互关系。危险品道路运输过程风险管理是一个持续改进的结构化过程风险管理体系,有助于减少危险品运输事故概率和降低运输沿线影响人员风险,为政府监管部门和危险品生产经营单位的运输安全管理、优化选线以及应急救援等工作提供技术依据,合理规划危险品运输系统。     

Risk analysis for road and rail transport of hazardous materials: a simplified approach

A simplified approach to transportation risk analysis for road and rail transport of dangerous goods is proposed, which is based on the use of a product databank, containing the impact areas for a number of pre-selected accidental scenarios, and on the selection of a few typical average values of the involved parameters, relevant to the type of transport activity and to the route. Such an approach enables also a non-specialist to very rapidly perform a transportation risk analysis, obtaining both individual and societal risk measures for the study case(s): the results may be used to support a decision making process, and/or as a basis for a more in deep analysis.     

基于最小路径的应急系统响应可靠度的计算

为了分析突发事件应急系统可靠性,计算应急系统响应可靠度,首先分析一般应急系统的组成与结构,提出应急系统由硬件子系统、软件子系统、人子系统、人与硬件关系子系统和人与软件关系子系统组成,根据系统的最小路径推导得到应急系统响应可靠度的解析表达式,分析各个子系统的可靠度,得到对于特定的应急系统响应可靠度的解析表达式可以由最小路径直接得到的结论,为其他复杂系统的可靠度的计算提供依据。     

Design of a system for real-time modelling of the dispersion of hazardous gas releases in industrial plants 2. Accidental releases from storage installations

This paper is the second part of a research programme concerning the modelling capabilities of accidental releases of heavier-than-air toxic gases. The existing theory, which includes the strength of the source and the subsequent development of the released cloud under representative environmental conditions, is described. Comparison of the ZZB-2 system predictions with field data from the Desert Tortoise and Lyme Bay V, ammonia and chlorine releases, shows excellent agreement at distances between ≈ 200 m and a few kilometres from the source. The correlation between observed and predicted cloud concentrations, was in all cases significant at a confidence level better than 95%.     

危险品物流系统危险性评价

阐述了建立危险品物流系统指标体系的原则,分析了危险品物流系统危险性评价指标体系与一般物流系统评价指标体系和一般危险性评价指标体系的区别.从物流系统各环节出发,根据"两类危险源"理论,选取能全面反映系统特性的指标,建立了危险品物流系统的危险性评价指标体系.采用层次分析法确定各指标的权重.将集对分析理论应用于危险品物流系统的危险性评价中,提出了危险等级的划分方法.由差异度i的不同取值,计算出联系数μ的取值范围.根据集对势可以分析出系统安全状况的发展趋势,为管理者查找事故隐患,采取预防措施指明方向.通过实例证明,该理论适合于危险性评价.为危险性评价工作提供一条新的途径,同时也为有关部门进行安全管理,制定相关标准提供理论依据.     

突发环境事件应急监测应对措施分析

在发生突发环境事件事件时,污染事件较为常见,为准确采取应对措施,必须有针对性地开展应急监测,及时采取有效的应对措施。对此,本文首先对突发环境污染事件与应急监测响应概念进行介绍,然后对突发环境事件应急监测准备工作以及应对措施进行详细探究。     

采用火焰传感器的高速抑爆响应系统测试研究

为实现主动抑制瓦斯爆炸,研制了高速抑爆响应系统。选用尺寸为150mm×150mm×1 600mm的有机玻璃管道,在CH4体积分数为9.5%的条件下进行响应系统测试实验。系统采用火焰传感器进行爆炸火焰探测,通过所设计的程序自主判定瓦斯爆炸的发生并输出控制电信号,以继电器或MOS管为电路控制开关,通过电磁阀控制抑爆剂的喷出。实验结果表明,火焰传感器探测、信号采集、爆炸判断、输出电信号的总平均耗时为22ms,抑爆剂开始释放的平均时刻为59.8ms,抑爆剂释放到管道顶端的平均时刻为79.8ms。而爆炸火焰传播到达喷头所在1.0m处平均时刻为176.2ms。实验表明该系统具有高速主动抑爆响应功能和良好的稳定性、可靠性。     

危险化学品公共安全技术信息管理系统研究进展

危险化学品安全管理是国家公共安全保障体系的重要组成部分,加强对危化品的安全管理,是保持社会稳定和经济安全,促进贸易的一项战略任务。国内外危化品安全管理实践经验和教训表明,要实现危化品安全科学管理,建立和完善包括危化产品数据库、人员管理、危险源监控、质量安全数据库、应急求援、废弃物处理等从摇篮到坟墓式的技术支持系统至关重要。本文结合近年来危化品安全技术信息管理系统的现状,系统的从国内和国外的研究情况,综述了国内外危化品安全信息系统的研究成果,分析了其优缺点,并且对我国的危化品安全生产信息化建设中存在的问题进行了总结,提出了解决办法与对未来发展趋势进行了展望。     

国家生产安全应急救援体系分级响应和救援程序探讨

应急救援的响应机制是国家生产安全应急体系运行的重要基础 ,是保证应急救援活动快速、有效的技术关键。应依据生产安全事故的预期后果、影响范围、事态控制和事件的性质 ,实行预备 (Ⅰ级 )、专业启动(Ⅱ级 )和国家启动 (Ⅲ级 )三级响应机制。在各级应急组织制定和实施通用的应急响应程序 ,使应急反应的接警、启动、救援实施、事态控制、应急恢复 ,直到应急结束的全过程实现程序化和标准化。同时还应建立应急救援演练与评审改进机制 ,以评价应急体系的能力 ,检验应急预案的实效性 ,持续改进 ,不断完善 ,以提高整体应急水平。     

Fire risk management system for safe operation of large atmospheric storage tanks

This paper has been prepared by its authors to show the benefits coming from the application of the fire risk assessment methodology prepared by the “LastFire^© Project” group of experts. Now a days this methodology seems to be very effective to face the fire risk connected with large atmospheric storage tanks. It has been developed during the period 1997–2005 the HSE & operations experts from experts 16 worldwide operating oil companies. The authors, by “ad hoc” created software package, show the benefit coming from the applications of the LastFire^© methodology and how, from this, using the methodology and the supporting tad, realize a coherent fire strategy in the form of a Fire Risk Management System. Same workflow could also be extended to the issues connected with other problems related with large atmospheric tanks storing hydrocarbons, such as environmental impact by soil pollution, to create a common frame walk of assessment not can be shared with authorities as well. The proposed methodology, moving from the original project, sets as an effective “Fire Hazard Management Approach” in line with the most recent trends (even enforced by the regulations) shared at international levels, that propose the integration of risk assessment with prevention and protection measures selection based on achieved risk reduction, costs, time needed, etc.     

Dynamic response characteristics and structural optimization of isolation seal under the impact of gas explosion

Either in the chemical process plants or in the underground infrastructures, the isolation seal is regularly used to separate the working sections and inactive sections, or to isolate the possible explosion sites in order to avoid any domino effects. Due to differences in accumulation space or ignition point locations, pressure on the seal can vary when an explosion occurs. Thus, the safety and reliability of seals are crucial to maintaining safety in process industry. This paper focuses on seals constructed with concrete and loess materials, and examines the dynamic response characteristics of the gas explosion wave on the seal through sample experiments and numerical simulation metods. The study proposes an optimized design for the explosion-proof structure of the wedge-shaped and spherical seal, which can provide a technical basis for the explosion-proof and anti-explosion measures of various sealed walls. These research findings can also serve as a basis for improving the construction quality of seals.     

潘一矿西翼通风系统调整与预测研究

针对潘一矿采掘布局高度集中,导致西三采区需求风量大幅提高,引起中央风井风机负压高的问题,提出了西翼通风系统调整与优化方案;并结合矿井未来发展规划,提出了加快二水平巷道掘进、提前准备大巷煤柱工作面顺槽的方法,制定了西三采区进风段和回风段的降阻措施。模拟结果表明:从采区的进风段和回风段同时采取措施,并在采区内部进行扩巷,能有效改善西三采区通风阻力较高的状况,主要通风机负压能降至合理范围。     

An application of 3D gasdynamic modeling for the prediction of overpressures in vented enclosures

A three-dimensional gasdynamic model with constant burning rate is applied for the prediction of the maximum pressure rise from gaseous combustion in vented enclosures. A series of calculations for an enclosure with aspect ratio close to unity are presented. Both cases with and without obstacles in the enclosure are considered. Results of calculations are compared with a simple 0D solution for spherical vessels. It is shown that, in cases without obstacles, the 0D solution for the maximum reduced overpressures is close to the predictions of the detailed modeling. In cases with obstacles, the detailed simulation gives significantly higher overpressures than those from the 0D model. However, in all the cases the reduced pressures are correlated well with the maximum flame surface area.     

基于X3D技术的化学灾害事故处置在线培训系统

从消防部门处置化学灾害事故训练需求出发,采用基于Web的虚拟现实和智能组卷技术,设计并实现了一种化学灾害事故处置在线培训系统。按照化学危险品在储存、运输、生产环节中发生泄漏、燃烧和爆炸等事故类型进行分类,提供了危险源理化性质、事故特点及危害性分析、灭火救援行动措施等知识的在线学习和考试功能。在技术实现方面,采用互联网Web3D标准X3D技术,以三维方式模拟事故场景和表现知识内容,为用户提供了一个网络化、沉浸式的三维互动学习模式和环境。系统的设计和实现为化学灾害事故处置培训工作网络化、培训内容系统化、表现形式多样化提供了一种新的思路。