Public orders and personal opinions: household strategies for hurricane risk assessment

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between household evacuation decisions and official emergency management practices in light of recent increases in the availability and diversity of hurricane-related information. While we focus on Hurricane Floyd in South Carolina, we incorporate findings of our longitudinal research effort covering the last four years and six post-1995 hurricane threats to the state. While only 64% of residents in the mandatory evacuation zone complied with the Hurricane Floyd evacuation order, over 80% agreed that calling an evacuation was an appropriate precautionary response given the uncertainties of the storm. Longitudinal surveys indicate that Horry County residents have developed a fairly robust strategy in making evacuation decisions. This “hurricane savvy” population depends more heavily on individuals' assessments of risks than on official orders. Individual assessment practices differ from official orders in that greater weight is given to household circumstances and preferences, the diligent monitoring of a variety of information sources, and the incorporation of past experiences into the decision-making process. Surveys indicate differences between the general public and officials in terms of priorities and preferences about hurricane evacuations. The public demands more information about the hurricane threat. Officials place more emphasis on planning evacuation routes and public safety measures.     

Heading for higher ground: factors affecting real and hypothetical hurricane evacuation behavior

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to assess the determinants of hurricane evacuation behavior of North Carolina coastal households during Hurricane Bonnie and a future hypothetical hurricane. We use the data from a telephone survey of North Carolina coastal residents. Hypothetical questions are used to assess whether respondents will evacuate and where in the case of a future hurricane with varying intensities. We examine the social, economic, and risk factors that affect the decisions to evacuate and whether to go to a shelter or motel/hotel relative to other destinations. The most important predictor of evacuation is storm intensity. Households are more likely to evacuate when given evacuation orders, when they perceive a flood risk, and when they live in mobile homes. Households who own pets are less likely to evacuate. Non-white households, pet owners and those with more education are less likely to go to either a motel/hotel or shelter, preferring instead to stay with friends or family.     

Factors affecting the evacuation decisions of coastal households during Cyclone Aila in Bangladesh

Despite sincere efforts by concerned agencies and recent improvements in hazard warnings, thousands of at-risk people did not evacuate during Aila, a category-I tropical cyclone that struck southwestern coastal Bangladesh in 2009. This study investigated the responses of the people affected by Aila to cyclone warnings and associated evacuation orders, and unveiled behavioural aspects that explain why they did or did not comply with the evacuation orders. Utilising the primary data collected from 420 households living in the severely affected coastal sub-district Koyra, located in Khulna District, this study found that although more than 97% of the households had received cyclone warnings and evacuation orders before Aila's landfall, only around 26% had evacuated. We also examined this study's empirical findings for factors that had dissuaded people from complying with the evacuation orders. Relevant test statistics along with results from principal component analysis suggested that the significant and systematic absenteeism of households from disaster preparedness training appears to be one of the key determinants that affected their evacuation decisions, along with factors related to warning messages, the attributes of cyclone shelters, risk perception, and socioeconomic aspects. A number of recommendations are also presented in this study for people at risk to improve their evacuation rates in future emergencies, not only to save their own lives but also to save their livestock.     

The inside story: timeline of events and communication leading up to superstorm sandy from the emergency manager perspective

During impending storms, emergency managers (EMs) are tasked with various decisions and challenges, particularly whether to issue evacuation orders for their area. This study aims to understand the timeline of decisions made and actions taken leading up to Superstorm Sandy’s landfall from the EM perspective. A total of 23 in-depth interviews was conducted in New Jersey and New York. All municipal EMs interviewed first heard about what would become Superstorm Sandy between one and two weeks prior to landfall. From then on, municipal EMs monitored the storm using a variety of sources. The communication and information trail is top-down, starting with higher EM levels (i.e. federal and state) and ending with municipal, or local, EMs. Typically, voluntary evacuation orders were issued on Friday or Saturday, while mandatory evacuation orders began being issued on Saturday, two days before landfall, and continued until the day of landfall. Who issued the various evacuation orders depended on location. In New York City, the Mayor has full control of whether an evacuation is ordered, while in New Jersey, the local EMs generally have the authority. Understanding the timeline of decisions is the first step into fully assessing the EM process during events such as Sandy.     

The post‐disaster negative health legacy: pregnancy outcomes in Louisiana after Hurricane Andrew

Disasters and displacement increasingly affect and challenge urban settings. How do pregnant women fare in the aftermath of a major disaster? This paper investigates the effect of pregnancies in disaster situations. The study tests a hypothesis that pregnant women residing in hurricane‐prone areas suffer higher health risks. The setting is Louisiana in the Gulf Coast, United States, a state that continually experiences hurricane impacts. The time period for the analysis is three years following the landfall of Hurricane Andrew in 1992. We analysed low birth weight and preterm deliveries before and after landfall, as a whole and by race. Findings support an association between hazards and health of a community and indicate that pregnant women in the affected area, irrespective of race, are more likely to experience preterm deliveries compared to pre‐event births. Results suggest there is a negative health legacy impact in Louisiana as a result of hurricane landfall.     

Flooding and the ‘new normal’: what is the role of gender in experiences of post-disaster ontological security?

Disaster researchers have long analysed disruption to affected residents' ontological security, often represented by routines and familiar landmarks. Surprisingly little of this work, though, assesses who is most likely to experience feelings of disruption. Using a representative set of survey data, complemented by follow-up interview data from 40 residents affected by the Southern Alberta Flood of June 2013, this paper explores how demographic characteristics, such as gender and place attachment, impact on residents' sense of disruption and loss. The findings indicate that women and people with stronger emotional and social ties to their neighbourhoods are most likely to experience disrupted ontological security; home flooding and evacuation orders are also significant predictors. The qualitative interview data reveal that many participants felt unsettled and disrupted by myriad factors, such as ongoing construction, which prevented them from establishing a ‘new normal’. The paper concludes by discussing the implications of these findings for policymakers and service providers.     

Hurricane threat in Florida: examining household perceptions,beliefs, and actions

Households in hurricane-prone regions respond to hurricane threat in numerous ways. Perceptions about their risk and other factors are thought to influence individuals’ decisions to take protective actions for hurricanes. This research investigates the perceptions, behavioral intentions, and actual protective actions of a sample of residents in Miami-Dade County, Florida. We use unique data collected via a telephone survey to investigate a set of factors including risk perception, perceived local government readiness for a hurricane, past hurricane experience, hazard information exposure, and demographics, which have been posited to influence perceived hurricane preparedness, intent to evacuate under hurricane threat, and actual hurricane preparedness. The analytic results show that risk perception was positively associated with perceived preparedness, intent to evacuate, and one of the actual preparedness measures. Perceived local government readiness for a hurricane also was positively related to perceived preparedness and an actual protective measure. The results for other factors, including socio-demographics, varied by dependent variable. Following a report of the results, we discuss the research and policy implications of our findings.     

Drug markets during the Katrina disaster

PURPOSE: The purpose of this paper is to examine the experiences of poor drug users and sellers who remained in New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina in 2005 to identify their special needs and the unique challenges they present to disaster management. DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH: Semi-structured, open-ended interviews were conducted with 119 poor, predominantly African-American, drug users and sellers. Their stories in their own words provide a mosaic of drug-related experiences from the period immediately preceding the storm through evacuation and reveal the motivations behind their behaviors. FINDINGS: Many drug users placed partying, maintaining their habits, and making money ahead of personal safety and evacuation. Drug use and sales led many not to evacuate before the storm, to use drugs in congregate shelters, to avoid shelters, to roam through flooded debris-strewn streets, to loot stores and homes of drug dealers, and to use violence or the threat of violence to achieve their drug-related aims. ORIGINALITY/VALUE: During a disaster, many poor drug users place risks on themselves, their families, their communities and ultimately on rescue workers. The conclusion presents pragmatic and humanitarian guidelines for successfully addressing this additional challenge. The recommendations are consistent with other suggestions concerning the special needs of indigent populations.     

Variations in disaster evacuation behavior: public responses versus private sector executive decision-making processes

Data obtained from 65 executives working for tourism firms in three sample communities permitted comparison with the public warning response literature regarding three topics: disaster evacuation planning, initial warning responses, and disaster evacuation behavior. Disaster evacuation planning was reported by nearly all of these business executives, although it was highly variable in content, completeness, and formality. Managerial responses to post-disaster warnings paralleled the type of complex social processes that have been documented within the public response literature, except that warning sources and confirmation behavior were significantly affected by contact with authorities. Five key areas of difference were discovered in disaster evacuation behavior pertaining to: influence of planning, firm versus family priorities, shelter selection, looting concerns, and media contacts.     

Prospects for improved hurricane protection on oceanic islands: Hawaii after Hurricane Iwa *

Hurricane Iwa (23rd November 1982) produced Hawaii's costliest natural disaster and revealed serious flaws in the area's hurricane preparedness, response and mitigation programs. Twenty-eight months later, a follow-up study showed that impacted communities and facilities had been reconstructed with only selective and limited attention to mitigating future coastal storm hazards. Prospects for the reduction of hazard vulnerability on oceanic islands through post-disaster mitigation measures are assessed in the light of Hawaii's experience.     

Disaster warning and evacuation responses by private business employees

When people are advised that their place of employment is threatened with disaster, how do they respond? Interviews with employees (n=406) of 118 businesses affected by one of seven recent disasters provide the first answers to this question. Multivariate analyses document the key variables that best predict variation are: 1) emergent perceptions of risk; 2) time of evacuation from work; 3) time of evacuation from home; 4) multiple evacuations; and 5) tension between work and family commitments. When warned of impending disaster, most employees initially responded with denial. Gradually, however, emergent perceptions of risk intensified especially among those living in communities in which the least amount of disaster planning had occurred or who resided in a mobile home or apartment. Highest levels of work and family tensions during these evacuations were reported by racial minority employees who had children living at home. Policy implications for these and other findings are discussed so as to pin‐point changes business managers should make that will enable them to provide the leadership and compassion expected by employees.     

Time needed to evacuate the Netherlands in the event of large-scale flooding: strategies and consequences

On 30 May 2008, the Government of the Netherlands informed the national parliament about the effectiveness of preventive evacuation of coastal and river areas in case of flooding. Analysis of a case study showed that it is impossible to evacuate coastal areas preventively within a 48-hour time span preceding a worst credible scenario flood caused by a storm surge. This fact illustrates the need for alternative evacuation strategies, such as vertical evacuation (evacuating to safe havens, inside the flood zone) or shelter-in-place (hiding), to reduce loss of life and the impact of the evacuation. This paper defines these strategies and demonstrates, by returning to the case study used by the Dutch government, that they require different measures, methods of approach, and crisis management processes. In addition, it addresses the need for flexible and scalable preparation so that after detecting and understanding the threat, authorities and citizens can make decisions about different evacuation strategies.     

基于GIS的灾害疏散模拟及救援调度

台风是我国东南沿海各省夏秋季中经常遭遇的自然灾害。在台风登陆之前，根据气象部门对台风发生过程及发展趋势的分析，预测防御范围，进行必要的应急疏散与救援调度，可以有效地减少人员伤亡和财产损失。研究了城市在风灾情况下进行疏散的模拟方法。将微观离散模型和宏观交通流模型相结合，采用元胞自动机原理和LW宏观交通流理论，建立了城市区域不同类型的疏散模型和应急服务规划模型，进行了人员和车辆的疏散模拟与分析，并在此基础上研制了基于GIS的灾害疏散模拟及救援调度系统，该系统可对城市防灾减灾规划和灾时应急预案的制定提供决策支持。     

城市交通隧道内火灾环境发展规律的数值模拟研究

为缓解城市地面交通压力,城市交通隧道在许多大城市中已经得到越来越多的应用。由于城市交通隧道具有特殊的交通特性、地理位置及建筑结构,其火灾安全问题受到了极大的关注。研究其内部的火灾环境,对于设置相应的防火安全设施来保证内部人员和隧道结构本身的安全至关重要。本文采用数值模拟的手段,对自然通风工况下,有坡度和无坡度隧道在火灾环境下的温度分布特性进行了研究。研究结果表明,2种隧道内的温度分布特性有很大差异;对于由烟囱效应导致的有坡度情况下的温度分布特殊性,在制定相应的防排烟措施时应充分考虑。研究结果对于隧道的结构防火设计、防排烟系统设计及火灾时的人员疏散方案制定有一定的参考价值。     

地铁列车火灾中的人员疏散仿真研究

近年来,随着城市人口的不断激增,地铁行业也随之蓬勃发展,地铁列车已经从城市交通的辅助角色转变成人们生活中的关键需求,因而做好地铁的消防安全工程势在必行。针对列车火灾的人员疏散问题进行了模拟分析,考虑列车车厢内4种人员密度疏散的场景,通过软件模拟分析,将结果与规范计算所得结果进行比对,较为真实可靠地反映了人员密度对疏散的影响,并在此基础上提出相关建议。     

基于GIS和OREMS的洪灾避难系统

面对突发的灾害,人类采取避难转移的方式来减少生命和财产的损失。大范围的人口转移是一个十分复杂的过程,必须有合理的计划和有效地利用现有的交通设施。提出了基于GIS和OREMS的洪灾避难系统来模拟洪灾的避难转移过程。根据洪灾危险区的统计资料,应用基于GIS的风暴潮洪灾风险系统分析洪灾淹没范围、避难区域的人口分布、路网结构,使用OREMS避难交通模型模拟避难过程。以长兴岛为例进行洪灾避难交通模拟,得到避难耗费时间,路网拥堵路段,并且在分析模拟结果的基础上对避难计划进行优化。     

Community evacuation following a chlorine release, Mississippi

On 7th September 1986, four miles north of Collins, Mississippi, a train transporting chlorine derailed. Two cars ruptured and gas escaped. As a result, 100 families were evacuated. To study the evacuation process, we conducted person-to-person interviews with sixty-two families staying in the evacuation center. Only 52.5% of the families received their first directive to evacuate directly from police or other officials. Delays in evacuating tended to be shorter when people were warned by the police and were told the reason for evacuating. Lack of personal transportation and preexisting health problems resulted in delays in evacuation. Concerns about evacuation included fear of looting, lack of a place to go, lack of transportation, difficulty in moving with children and elderly persons, and the need to take care of pets. One third of the interviewees reported feeling panic. Community evacuation procedures would be improved if: (1) officials contact all households directly; (2) the warning message addresses people's concerns; and (3) transportation is provided.     

应用卫星遥感技术监测沙尘暴的研究

对国内外利用遥感技术监测沙尘暴的研究进行了概述,对沙尘暴的遥感监测方法进行了总结,并作了进一步的探讨,提出了遥感监测沙尘暴的新思路,讨论了相关问题.     

网络风暴对智能变电站设备和系统的影响研究

智能变电站网络风暴直接影响着智能二次设备的正常通讯。通过分析智能变电站网络风暴的特点和产生原因,对网络风暴对站控层设备和系统、过程层设备的影响进行了测试,发现了网络流量、字节、报文类型等是网络风暴影响各类二次设备通讯的原因之一。针对网络风暴的影响,提出了在工程实际应用中抑制网络风暴的方法。