Parcels versus pixels: modeling agricultural land use across broad geographic regions using parcel-based field boundaries

Land use and land cover (LULC) change occurs at a local level within contiguous ownership and management units (parcels), yet LULC models primarily use pixel-based spatial frameworks. The few parcel-based models being used overwhelmingly focus on small geographic areas, limiting the ability to assess LULC change impacts at regional to national scales. We developed a modified version of the Forecasting Scenarios of land use change model to project parcel-based agricultural change across a large region in the United States Great Plains. A scenario representing an agricultural biofuel scenario was modeled from 2012 to 2030, using real parcel boundaries based on contiguous ownership and land management units. The resulting LULC projection provides a vastly improved representation of landscape pattern over existing pixel-based models, while simultaneously providing an unprecedented combination of thematic detail and broad geographic extent. The conceptual approach is practical and scalable, with potential use for national-scale projections.     

How dynamics and drivers of land use/land cover change impact elephant conservation and agricultural livelihood development in Rombo,Tanzania

Land use/land cover (LULC) change affects the provision of ecosystem services for humans and habitat for wildlife. Hence, it is crucial to monitor LULC particularly adjacent to protected areas. In this study, we measured LULC change in Rombo, Tanzania, an area with high-potential agro-ecological zones that is dominated by human–elephant conflicts (HECs). We used remote sensing and geographical information system techniques, questionnaires and village meetings to assess spatio-temporal patterns of the LULC changes in the study area. Using Landsat imagery, digital elevation model (DEM) and ground truthing, we classified and monitored changes in LULC from the years 1987 to 2015. We found that within Rombo, settlements were increasing, while agricultural and agroforestry lands were decreasing and respondents’ perceptions varied along the altitudinal gradient. Patterns of HEC and LULC were observed to change along the gradient and the later threatened the agricultural land and ecological integrity for elephant habitat, leading to high tension and competition between elephants and people. This research offers baseline information for land use planning to balance wildlife conservation with livelihood development in Rombo and highlights that managing the impacts of LULC changes on HEC and elephant habitat loss is a matter of urgency.     

Land‐Cover Change and Avian Diversity in the Conterminous United States

Abstract: Changes in land use and land cover have affected and will continue to affect biological diversity worldwide. Yet, understanding the spatially extensive effects of land‐cover change has been challenging because data that are consistent over space and time are lacking. We used the U.S. National Land Cover Dataset Land Cover Change Retrofit Product and North American Breeding Bird Survey data to examine land‐cover change and its associations with diversity of birds with principally terrestrial life cycles (landbirds) in the conterminous United States. We used mixed‐effects models and model selection to rank associations by ecoregion. Land cover in 3.22% of the area considered in our analyses changed from 1992 to 2001, and changes in species richness and abundance of birds were strongly associated with land‐cover changes. Changes in species richness and abundance were primarily associated with changes in nondominant types of land cover, yet in many ecoregions different types of land cover were associated with species richness than were associated with abundance. Conversion of natural land cover to anthropogenic land cover was more strongly associated with changes in bird species richness and abundance than persistence of natural land cover in nearly all ecoregions and different covariates were most strongly associated with species richness than with abundance in 11 of 17 ecoregions. Loss of grassland and shrubland affected bird species richness and abundance in forested ecoregions. Loss of wetland was associated with bird abundance in forested ecoregions. Our findings highlight the value of understanding changes in nondominant land cover types and their association with bird diversity in the United States.     

Per-capita estimations of long-term historical land use and the consequences for global change research

Changes in land use and land cover are important in global climate change, but the many uncertainties in historical estimates seriously hamper climate modelling. We collected new data on estimated per capita land use over the last two millennia, using new data sources from the Humanities. In general, and in agreement with literature, we found that per capita land use indeed has not been constant in the past, but differ per region and over time. Land use in the distant past was mostly less than 1 ha/cap. However, the recently colonised regions show much higher values and have experienced a much higher per capita land use for the recent past. Most known trajectories follow a concave or bell-shaped curve towards the present.     

Survey methods for assessing land cover map accuracy

The increasing availability of digital photographic materials has fueled efforts by agencies and organizations to generate land cover maps for states, regions, and the United States as a whole. Regardless of the information sources and classification methods used, land cover maps are subject to numerous sources of error. In order to understand the quality of the information contained in these maps, it is desirable to generate statistically valid estimates of accuracy rates describing misclassification errors. We explored a full sample survey framework for creating accuracy assessment study designs that balance statistical and operational considerations in relation to study objectives for a regional assessment of GAP land cover maps. We focused not only on appropriate sample designs and estimation approaches, but on aspects of the data collection process, such as gaining cooperation of land owners and using pixel clusters as an observation unit. The approach was tested in a pilot study to assess the accuracy of Iowa GAP land cover maps. A stratified two-stage cluster sampling design addressed sample size requirements for land covers and the need for geographic spread while minimizing operational effort. Recruitment methods used for private land owners yielded high response rates, minimizing a source of nonresponse error. Collecting data for a 9-pixel cluster centered on the sampled pixel was simple to implement, and provided better information on rarer vegetation classes as well as substantial gains in precision relative to observing data at a single-pixel.     

Economic-based projections of future land use in the conterminous United States under alternative policy scenarios

Land-use change significantly contributes to biodiversity loss, invasive species spread, changes in biogeochemical cycles, and the loss of ecosystem services. Planning for a sustainable future requires a thorough understanding of expected land use at the fine spatial scales relevant for modeling many ecological processes and at dimensions appropriate for regional or national-level policy making. Our goal was to construct and parameterize an econometric model of land-use change to project future land use to the year 2051 at a fine spatial scale across the conterminous United States under several alternative land-use policy scenarios. We parameterized the econometric model of land-use change with the National Resource Inventory (NRI) 1992 and 1997 land-use data for 844 000 sample points. Land-use transitions were estimated for five land-use classes (cropland, pasture, range, forest, and urban). We predicted land-use change under four scenarios: business-as-usual, afforestation, removal of agricultural subsidies, and increased urban rents. Our results for the business-as-usual scenario showed widespread changes in land use, affecting 36% of the land area of the conterminous United States, with large increases in urban land (79%) and forest (7%), and declines in cropland (-16%) and pasture (-13%). Areas with particularly high rates of land-use change included the larger Chicago area, parts of the Pacific Northwest, and the Central Valley of California. However, while land-use change was substantial, differences in results among the four scenarios were relatively minor. The only scenario that was markedly different was the afforestation scenario, which resulted in an increase of forest area that was twice as high as the business-as-usual scenario. Land-use policies can affect trends, but only so much. The basic economic and demographic factors shaping land-use changes in the United States are powerful, and even fairly dramatic policy changes, showed only moderate deviations from the business-as-usual scenario. Given the magnitude of predicted land-use change, any attempts to identify a sustainable future or to predict the effects of climate change will have to take likely land-use changes into account. Econometric models that can simulate land-use change for broad areas with fine resolution are necessary to predict trends in ecosystem service provision and biodiversity persistence.     

Building a better baseline to estimate 160 years of avian population change and create historically informed conservation targets

Globally, anthropogenic land-cover change has been dramatic over the last few centuries and is frequently invoked as a major cause of wildlife population declines. Baseline data currently used to assess population trends, however, began well after major changes to the landscape. In the United States and Canada, breeding bird population trends are assessed by the North American Breeding Bird Survey, which began in the 1960s. Estimates of distribution and abundance prior to major habitat alteration would add historical perspective to contemporary trends and allow for historically based conservation targets. We used a hindcasting framework to estimate change in distribution and abundance of 7 bird species in the Willamette Valley, Oregon (United States). After reconciling classification schemes of current and 1850s reconstructed land cover, we used multiscale species distribution models and hierarchical distance sampling models to predict spatially explicit densities in the modern and historical landscapes. We estimated that since the 1850s, White-breasted Nuthatch (Sitta carolinensis) and Western Meadowlark (Sturnella neglecta) populations, 2 species sensitive to fragmentation of oak woodlands and grasslands, declined by 93% and 97%, respectively. Five other species we estimated nearly stable or increasing populations, despite steep regional declines since the 1960s. Based on these estimates, we developed historically based conservation targets for amount of habitat, population, and density for each species. Hindcasted reconstructions provide historical perspective for assessing contemporary trends and allow for historically based conservation targets that can inform current management.     

Modelling the potential impacts of land use/cover change on terrestrial carbon stocks in north-west Morocco

Terrestrial ecosystems store more carbon (C) than the atmosphere and provide ecosystem services (ES) such as global climate regulation, by sequestering carbon within biomass and soil. Land use land cover (LULC) change is considered a key factor, playing an important role in the dynamic variations of carbon storage. The aim of this paper is to assess the effects that LULC has had on carbon stocks and consequently on climate change regulation in north-western Morocco over 21 years. To achieve this aim, the Integrated Valuation of ES and Trade-offs (InVEST) model is used to assess status and variation in the net amount of carbon stored by the different types of LULC, and the economic value of the carbon sequestered in the remaining stock. The results show that the total carbon stock increased from 4.81TgC in 1996 to 4.98TgC in 2017. Over the 21 years, the LULC changes had the greatest effect on carbon storage - an increase of 6.87% with 0.17TgC of carbon sequestered, since the majority of unused land was changed to forest and cultivated land. Based on the global costs of atmospheric carbon, we estimate the economic value of carbon storage services to be between US$1,800,000 and US$3,570,000 for the whole period, with an average yearly increment of between US$86,000 and US$170,000. The results show that the ecosystem management has had a substantial climate mitigation effect. Also, the possibility of paying for ES could inform policy on the adoption of LULC to support livelihood and management choices.     

The utility of earth observation technologies in understanding impacts of land reform in the eastern region of Zimbabwe

Land tenure and land policies influence the spatial variations of land use/cover (LULC) at any given time or place. Thus, it is important to evaluate the role of land tenure policies on land cover changes. In this study, we evaluate the utility of Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) images in understanding the impacts of the 2000 fast track land reform (FTLR) policy on LULC in the eastern region, Zimbabwe. Landsat images for the year 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2011 were classified using traditional image classification techniques (i.e. the maximum likelihood (ML) classifier) in a geographic information system (GIS) environment. Results indicate that forested areas drastically decreased by approx. 30% between the year 2000 and 2005 (during and after the FTLR), while croplands marginally increased by (approx. 30%) the results further showed that slight increase in bare lands (degraded lands) and disturbed lands. The observed LULC changes after FTLR were mostly induced by human activities resulting from changes in land tenure. Overall, the findings of this study underscores the importance of remotely sensed data in assessing the impact of FTLR on forest resources for purposes of informed and sustainable forest management.     

Forecasting relative impacts of land use on anadromous fish habitat to guide conservation planning.

Land use change can adversely affect water quality and freshwater ecosystems, yet our ability to predict how systems will respond to different land uses, particularly rural-residential development, is limited by data availability and our understanding of biophysical thresholds. In this study, we use spatially explicit parcel-level data to examine the influence of land use (including urban, rural-residential, and vineyard) on salmon spawning substrate quality in tributaries of the Russian River in California. We develop a land use change model to forecast the probability of losses in high-quality spawning habitat and recommend priority areas for incentive-based land conservation efforts. Ordinal logistic regression results indicate that all three land use types were negatively associated with spawning substrate quality, with urban development having the largest marginal impact. For two reasons, however, forecasted rural-residential and vineyard development have much larger influences on decreasing spawning substrate quality relative to urban development. First, the land use change model estimates 10 times greater land use conversion to both rural-residential and vineyard compared to urban. Second, forecasted urban development is concentrated in the most developed watersheds, which already have poor spawning substrate quality, such that the marginal response to future urban development is less significant. To meet the goals of protecting salmonid spawning habitat and optimizing investments in salmon recovery, we suggest investing in watersheds where future rural-residential development and vineyards threaten high-quality fish habitat, rather than the most developed watersheds, where land values are higher.     

Assessing effects of land use on landscape connectivity: loss and fragmentation of western U.S. forests

Effects of land-use change on the conservation of biodiversity have become a concern to conservation scientists and land managers, who have identified loss and fragmentation of natural areas as a high-priority issue. Despite urgent calls to inform national, regional, and state planning efforts, there remains a critical need to develop practical approaches to identify where important lands are for landscape connectivity (i.e., linkages), where land use constrains connectivity, and which linkages are most important to maintain network-wide connectivity extents. Our overall goal in this paper was to develop an approach that provides comprehensive, quantitative estimates of the effects of land-use change on landscape connectivity and illustrate its use on a broad, regional expanse of the western United States. We quantified loss of habitat and landscape connectivity for western forested systems due to land uses associated with residential development, roads, and highway traffic. We examined how these land-use changes likely increase the resistance to movement of forest species in non-forested land cover types and, therefore, reduce the connectivity among forested habitat patches. To do so, we applied a graph-theoretic approach that incorporates ecological aspects within a geographic representation of a network. We found that roughly one-quarter of the forested lands in the western United States were integral to a network of forested patches, though the lands outside of patches remain critical for habitat and overall connectivity. Using remotely sensed land cover data (ca. 2000), we found 1.7 million km2 of forested lands. We estimate that land uses associated with residential development, roads, and highway traffic have caused roughly a 4.5% loss in area (20 000 km2) of these forested patches, and continued expansion of residential land will likely reduce forested patches by another 1.2% by 2030. We also identify linkages among forest patches that are critical for landscape connectivity. Our approach can be readily modified to examine connectivity for other habitats/ecological systems and for other geographic areas, as well as to address more specific requirements for particular conservation planning applications.     

Modeling freshwater fish distributions using multiscale landscape data: A case study of six narrow range endemics

Species distribution models (SDMs) have become integral tools in scientific research and conservation planning. Despite progress in the assessment of various statistical models for use in SDMs, little has been done in way of evaluating appropriate ecological models. In this paper, we evaluate the multiscale filter framework as a suitable theoretical model for predicting freshwater fish distributions in the upper Green River system (Ohio River drainage), USA. The spatial distributions of six fishes with contrasting biogeographies were modeled using boosted regression trees and multiscale landscape data. Species biogeography did not appear to affect predictive performance and all models performed well statistically with receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC) ranging from 0.87 to 0.98. Predictive maps show accurate estimations of ranges for five of six species based on historical collections. The relative influence of each type of environmental feature and spatial scale varied markedly with between species. A hierarchical effect was detected for narrowly distributed species. These species were highly influenced by soil composition at larger spatial scales and land use/land cover (LULC) patterns at more proximal scales. Conversely, LULC pattern was the most influential feature for widely distributed at all spatial scales. Using multiscale data capable of capturing hierarchical landscape influences allowed production of accurate predictive models and provided further insight into factors controlling freshwater fish distributions.     

Risk-based modelling of diffuse land use impacts from rural landscapes upon salmonid fry abundance

Research has demonstrated that landscape or watershed scale processes can influence instream aquatic ecosystems, in terms of the impacts of delivery of fine sediment, solutes and organic matter. Testing such impacts upon populations of organisms (i.e. at the catchment scale) has not proven straightforward and differences have emerged in the conclusions reached. This is: (1) partly because different studies have focused upon different scales of enquiry; but also (2) because the emphasis upon upstream land cover has rarely addressed the extent to which such land covers are hydrologically connected, and hence able to deliver diffuse pollution, to the drainage network. However, there is a third issue. In order to develop suitable hydrological models, we need to conceptualise the process cascade. To do this, we need to know what matters to the organism being impacted by the hydrological system, such that we can identify which processes need to be modelled. Acquiring such knowledge is not easy, especially for organisms like fish that might occupy very different locations in the river over relatively short periods of time. However, and inevitably, hydrological modellers have started by building up piecemeal the aspects of the problem that we think matter to fish. Herein, we report two developments: (a) for the case of sediment associated diffuse pollution from agriculture, a risk-based modelling framework, SCIMAP, has been developed, which is distinct because it has an explicit focus upon hydrological connectivity; and (b) we use spatially distributed ecological data to infer the processes and the associated process parameters that matter to salmonid fry. We apply the model to spatially distributed salmon and fry data from the River Eden, Cumbria, England. The analysis shows, quite surprisingly, that arable land covers are relatively unimportant as drivers of fry abundance. What matters most is intensive pasture, a land cover that could be associated with a number of stressors on salmonid fry (e.g. pesticides, fine sediment) and which allows us to identify a series of risky field locations, where this land cover is readily connected to the river system by overland flow.     

Land cover and land use changes in a Brazilian Cerrado landscape: drivers,processes, and patterns

The Cerrado is one of the most threatened biomes in South America. To create protection actions on any scale, understanding drivers and consequences of land cover and land use (LC and LU) is essential. This study defines the composition and configuration of a Cerrado landscape watershed from 1975 to 2011. Using Landsat images and socioeconomic census data, we determined the forces acting on LC and LU change processes and their consequences. LC classes differ from LU classes for landscape dominance and processes. Economic opportunities drove LU change and its spatial distribution was related to soil, streams, and roads. Deforestation was the main cause of forest loss but forest degradation was also important, with both presenting different patterns. The spatial distribution of bare soil was related to pasture in degradation and streams. Bare soil distribution was related to pasture in degradation and streams. We concluded that broad scale factors drove changes, but local features determined distribution, and that watershed conservation plans should act on different scales, with management being spatially explicit.     

近50年来三江平原北部土地利用/土地覆被变化及生态效应分析

土地利用/覆被变化在全球变化中占有重要地位,对于综合模拟和评价环境问题非常重要。区域案例研究方法是土地利用/土地覆被的研究核心,以中尺度的三江平原北部作为研究区域,重建并分析了自1954年以来该地区4个时段的土地利用/土地覆被格局及其时空演化过程,在此基础上重点分析了20世纪50年代以来耕地的开发过程。结果表明1954年到2000年期间,以湿地、草地和林地转换成耕地为该区域土地利用/土地覆被变化的主要形式,耕地面积由占总面积的5.29%上升到51.81%,同时湿地占总面积的52.49%下降到15.71%,并指出人类的农垦活动是湿地减少和生态环境恶化的根本原因。     

Improving inferences about private land conservation by accounting for incomplete reporting

Private lands provide key habitat for imperiled species and are core components of function protectected area networks; yet, their incorporation into national and regional conservation planning has been challenging. Identifying locations where private landowners are likely to participate in conservation initiatives can help avoid conflict and clarify trade-offs between ecological benefits and sociopolitical costs. Empirical, spatially explicit assessment of the factors associated with conservation on private land is an emerging tool for identifying future conservation opportunities. However, most data on private land conservation are voluntarily reported and incomplete, which complicates these assessments. We used a novel application of occupancy models to analyze the occurrence of conservation easements on private land. We compared multiple formulations of occupancy models with a logistic regression model to predict the locations of conservation easements based on a spatially explicit social–ecological systems framework. We combined a simulation experiment with a case study of easement data in Idaho and Montana (United States) to illustrate the utility of the occupancy framework for modeling conservation on private land. Occupancy models that explicitly accounted for variation in reporting produced estimates of predictors that were substantially less biased than estimates produced by logistic regression under all simulated conditions. Occupancy models produced estimates for the 6 predictors we evaluated in our case study that were larger in magnitude, but less certain than those produced by logistic regression. These results suggest that occupancy models result in qualitatively different inferences regarding the effects of predictors on conservation easement occurrence than logistic regression and highlight the importance of integrating variable and incomplete reporting of participation in empirical analysis of conservation initiatives. Failure to do so can lead to emphasizing the wrong social, institutional, and environmental factors that enable conservation and underestimating conservation opportunities in landscapes where social norms or institutional constraints inhibit reporting.     

黄土小流域水沙输移过程对土地利用/覆被变化的响应

以甘肃定西安家沟小流域为典型研究区,基于TM、ALOS遥感影像解译和地面长期水文数据,深入分析了1997至2010年间流域土地利用变化特征及其产流产沙效应。结果显示,（1）14年间,流域林灌草面积分别增加160.23%、176.33%和80.75%;坡耕地、居民地、裸地和梯田面积分别减少25.57%、0.16%、48.45%和21.52%。以2005年为时间节点,发现前期灌草增加较多、裸地减少明显,后期则是乔木增加比例和坡耕地减少比例更为显著,彰显出不同历史阶段植被恢复的策略变化。（2）流域出口多年平均径流量和输沙量分别由前期的18 249 m3和6 383 kg锐减至后期的2 292 m3和2 267 kg,流域土地利用/覆被有效增加是其主要驱动。（3）春冬季节,由于降雨稀少、径流泥沙的本底值很低,前后两个阶段的水沙输移量差异较小,土地利用/覆被变化的影响相对尚不显著。但在夏秋季节,随着降雨事件增多,土地利用/覆被变化减水减沙的效应趋于显性化。     

珠江三角洲土地利用变化对特征大气污染物扩散的影响

在珠江三角洲两种下垫面条件下,应用CALPUFF大气污染扩散模式,对特征污染物SO2、SO42-的扩散进行数值模拟,探讨大规模土地利用变化,尤其是城镇建设用地增加,对珠江三角洲地区大气污染物扩散的影响,并通过对4个典型区污染物月均质量浓度变化特征分析,揭示土地利用变化对不同地区的污染物分布的影响机制。模拟结果表明：土地利用变化,尤其是城镇建设用地增加,不利于污染物扩散,污染源下风方向地区受影响较大,污染物质量浓度明显升高,SO2和 SO42-年均质量浓度分别增加14.07%和3.31%;受影响范围、变化幅度与污染源排污强度呈正相关,变化幅度亦与污染源距离远近呈负相关。土地利用变化后,尤其是城镇建设用地增加,四个典型区 SO2月均质量浓度都表现为升高趋势,且冬季 SO2质量浓度升高幅度最大,夏季升高幅度最小,临近污染源密集区的两个典型区SO2月均质量浓度分别增加33.6%和26.3%。土地利用变化不仅改变局地的污染扩散,也会对区域的污染扩散有一定影响,尤其对污染源分布密集区的大气污染物扩散影响强度最大。因此,建议人类在城市化建设过程中尽可能保留自然斑块,消除人工下垫面对污染物扩散的负面影响。     

Effects of land use on water quality of two high-altitude lakes and catchments in Yunnan Province,China

SUMMARY

Reclaiming farmland from lakes in China in the 1950s damaged the water quality of many lakes. Tremendous efforts have been made since the late 1990s to restore vegetation around the damaged lakes. This paper examines water quality of Fuxian and Qilu Lakes and land-use characteristics within the two catchments in the high-altitude area of Yunnan Province, China. Landsat TM data acquired in 1989, 1994, 1999 and 2005 were used to extract land use and land cover (LULC) information. Measurements of five water quality indices (WQIs), BOD, COD, pH, TN and TP, for the same period of time were examined. The results showed that the area of residential and forest/shrub increased, whereas that of cropland and barren land decreased from 1989 to 2005 in both catchments. Qilu Lake was much more polluted than Fuxian Lake, and pollution worsened over time for both lakes. The differences in water quality between the two lakes were caused by differences in LULC composition and continued degradation in water quality was caused by intensive farming and urban sprawl. Unless the landscape is converted back to its pre-1950 composition and structure, water quality in both lakes cannot be significantly improved and will continue to threaten sustainable development in the region.     

A review on historical trajectories and spatially explicit scenarios of land-use and land-cover changes in China

ABSTRACT

Land use in China has changed remarkably over the past centuries with manifold implications for sustainable development. Investigation and projection of the land-use and land-cover changes (LUCC) have therefore become critical to promote the understanding of the LUCC process and the interactions with human societies. Scientists had devoted great efforts to create, process, and interpret comprehensive historical land-use/cover datasets, and to simulate future land-use systems under different scenarios. We synthesize the literature on the historical trajectories of LUCC in China, and summarize existing efforts of scenario developments for the projection of spatially explicit LUCC. Our review therefore provides salient suggestions for future land-use change analysis.