Effects of Agricultural, Industrial, and Recreational Expansion on Frequency of Wildlife Law Violations in the Central Rocky Mountains, USA

Abstract: As human populations expand into previously unoccupied habitats, conflicts with wild vertebrate species are inevitable. On the basis of literature concerning human attitudes toward nature, we hypothesized that the intensity of conflicts and impacts would vary with the type of land use expansion. We tested our hypothesis by examining data on socioeconomic profiles of discrete expanding human populations in relation to the frequency of wildlife law violations in the central Rocky Mountains of the United States. We estimated possible human-related effects by comparing rates of wildlife law violations among populations varying in growth rates and socioeconomic status over an eleven-year period 1969–1980. We found that agrarian-based population centers had fewer violations per capita than areas with industrial-based (petroleum development) boom towns. Recreation-oriented (ski) boom towns had the lowest number of violations during periods of the most rapid growth. While the relationship between wildlife law violations and actual impact on animal population sizes remains unknown, our findings underscore the necessity of a priori recognition and planning by government and private agencies to combat potential harmful effects when expanding human population centers are likely to be characterized by immigrants with a low regard for wild species.     

Impacts of urbanization: diversity and the symbiotic relationships of rural,urban, and spaces in-between

This Impacts article proposes strategies for mitigating negative impacts of urbanization in rural locations in the United States. Issues addressed include impacts of population growth and development, loss of agricultural lands, and impacts of climate change on agriculture and rural communities. Conclusions are supported by stakeholder survey data, geographic information systems-based data, and desktop reviews of research journal publications. We propose a sustainable, diversified approach that supports mitigation of issues, including increasing demand on food production and decline of rural communities. A key issue that we address is where we will find suitable landscapes to reduce enough food for 9.6 billion people living in 2050.

Urban and rural development planners are grappling with solutions to escalating impacts global populations, stresses on food production, and effects of climate change. Solutions are identified, including strengthening rural and urban contexts by establishing connected and interdependent links that support diversification of rural and urban contexts as viable solutions to these issues.

Diversified rural-to-urban sustainable agriculture production is a promising approach to addressing climate change impacts. Organic agriculture principles exhibit strong diversity and are accredited by United States Department of Agriculture as the only federally certified sustainable agriculture practice in the United States. Sustainable agriculture practices are evolving into profitable diversified alternative food sources. We offer substantiated alternative solutions for remediating impacts of urbanization on rural agriculture and communities. Collectively, these solutions can strengthen symbiotic relationships between sustainable agriculture and rural communities, addressing our growing population issues and preserving our dwindling farmlands and rural communities.     

Effects of ecotourism on forest loss in the Himalayan biodiversity hotspot based on counterfactual analyses

Ecotourism is developing rapidly in biodiversity hotspots worldwide, but there is limited and mixed empirical evidence that ecotourism achieves positive biodiversity outcomes. We assessed whether ecotourism influenced forest loss rates and trajectories from 2000 to 2017 in Himalayan temperate forests. We compared forest loss in 15 ecotourism hubs with nonecotourism areas in 4 Himalayan countries. We used matching statistics to control for local-level determinants of forest loss, for example, population density, market access, and topography. None of the ecotourism hubs was free of forest loss, and we found limited evidence that forest-loss trajectories in ecotourism hubs were different from those in nonecotourism areas. In Nepal and Bhutan, differences in forest loss rates between ecotourism hubs and matched nonecotourism areas did not differ significantly, and the magnitude of the estimated effect was small. In India, where overall forest loss rates were the lowest of any country in our analysis, forest loss rates were higher in ecotourism hubs than in matched nonecotourism areas. In contrast, in China, where overall forest loss rates were highest, forest loss rates were lower in ecotourism hubs than where there was no ecotourism. Our results suggest that the success of ecotourism as a forest conservation strategy, as it is currently practiced in the Himalaya, is context dependent. In a region with high deforestation pressures, ecotourism may be a relatively environmentally friendly form of economic development relative to other development strategies. However, ecotourism may stimulate forest loss in regions where deforestation rates are low.     

Effects of Harvest of Nontimber Forest Products and Ecological Differences between Sites on the Demography of African Mahogany

Abstract: The demographic impacts of harvesting nontimber forest products (NTFP) have been increasingly studied because of reports of potentially unsustainable harvest. Nevertheless, our understanding of how plant demographic response to harvest is altered by variation in ecological conditions, which is critical for developing realistic sustainable‐use plans, is limited. We built matrix population models to test whether and how variation in ecological conditions affects population responses to harvest. In particular, we examined the effect of bark and foliage harvest on the demography of populations of African mahogany (Khaya senegalensis) in two contrasting ecological regions of Benin, West Africa. K. senegalensis bark and foliage harvest significantly reduced its stochastic population growth rates, but ecological differences between regions had a greater effect on population growth rates than did harvest. The effect of harvest on population growth rates (Δλ) was slightly stronger in the moist than in the drier region. Life‐table response experiments revealed that the mechanism by which harvesting reduced λ differed between ecological regions. Lowered stasis (persistence) of larger life stages lead to a reduction in λ in the drier region, whereas lowered growth of all life stages lowered λ in moist region. Potential strategies to increase population growth rates should include decreasing the proportion of individuals harvested, promoting harvester‐owned plantations of African mahogany, and increasing survival and growth by promoting no‐fire zones in gallery forests. Our results show how population responses to harvest of NTFP may be altered by ecological differences across sites and emphasize the importance of monitoring populations over the climatic range in which they occur to develop more realistic recommendations for conservation.     

Population Growth, Human Development, and Deforestation in Biodiversity Hotspots

Abstract:  Human population and development activities affect the rate of deforestation in biodiversity hotspots. We quantified the effect of human population growth and development on rates of deforestation and analyzed the relationship between these causal factors in the 1980s and 1990s. We compared the averages of population growth, human development index (HDI, which measures income, health, and education), and deforestation rate and computed correlations among these variables for countries that contain biodiversity hotspots. When population growth was high and HDI was low there was a high rate of deforestation, but when HDI was high, rate of deforestation was low, despite high population growth. The correlation among variables was significant for the 1990s but not for the 1980s. The relationship between population growth and HDI had a regional pattern that reflected the historical process of development. Based on the changes in HDI and deforestation rate over time, we identified two drivers of deforestation: policy choice and human-development constraints. Policy choices that disregard conservation may cause the loss of forests even in countries that are relatively developed. Lack of development in other countries, on the other hand, may increase the pressure on forests to meet the basic needs of the human population. Deforestation resulting from policy choices may be easier to fix than deforestation arising from human development constraints. To prevent deforestation in the countries that have such constraints, transfer of material and intellectual resources from developed countries may be needed. Popular interest in sustainable development in developed countries can facilitate the transfer of these resources.     

Genetic connectivity and historical demography of the blue barred parrotfish (Scarus ghobban) in the western Indian Ocean

Studies on genetic connectivity are essential for the design of management strategies for coral reef fisheries. In this study we used a mitochondrial DNA marker to investigate population structure of the reef-associated parrotfish, Scarus ghobban, from four countries, Kenya, Mauritius, Seychelles and Tanzania, in the western Indian Ocean. We obtained nucleotide sequences of the mitochondrial control region for 117 individuals. Measures of haplotype diversity were relatively high. Pairwise population differentiation (F _ST) was low, but not always non-significant. Analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) showed genetic differentiation between groups, when the data was partitioned into two groups consisting of samples from Mauritius and Tanzania in one group, and samples from Kenya and Seychelles in another group. Direction of gene flow was estimated using a Bayesian approach. Migration was sometimes asymmetric or directional, coinciding with the flow of major oceanic and coastal currents in the region. Mismatch distributions, based on the observed number of differences among haplotype pairs, produced a unimodal distribution, indicative of recent demographic expansion. Phylogenetic analyses revealed three clades without any geographic structure, suggesting recent migration between historically isolated lineages. We reconstructed the historical demography of S. ghobban and examined it in the context of Pleistocene climate stages and changes in relative sea level. Overall, these results showed that populations of S. ghobban are genetically diverse and have relatively high gene flow, with some genetic structuring in the western Indian Ocean.     

Feeding and non-feeding aggression can be induced in invasive shore crabs by altering food distribution

Human activity can have a large impact on surrounding ecosystems. For example, humans alter resource distributions for other species, potentially modifying these species competitive dynamics. These changes in local competitive processes are frequently associated with species invasions. Here, we investigate how differences in resource distribution affect competitive behaviour using the highly invasive European shore crab (Carcinus maenas). Using a controlled laboratory experiment in combination with behaviour assays and social network analysis, we show that individuals feeding in habitats with clumped food distributions are more aggressive than individuals feeding in habitats where food is evenly dispersed, and this aggression is present even on days where crabs are not feeding. Additionally, this persistent aggression can be induced, suggesting that individuals of this invasive species possess the flexibility to modify their competitive behaviours in response to differences in food distributions. Furthermore, we show how these individual responses can lead to changes in overall organisation of aggressive interactions within a population. We discuss these results in relation to how human impacts can have long-term effects on competitive behavioural strategies, and how behavioural flexibility can allow invasive species to colonise and persist in highly impacted sites such as urban ecosystems.     

Technological advance and the conservation of resources

SUMMARY

This paper reviews the nature of technological changes in forestry and the forest industries and their impacts on forest conservation and deforestation. While noting that technological changes have made available substantially more forest products to consumers, with higher quality and/or at lower prices than would otherwise have been possible, not all impacts have been positive.

The authors take a long-term perspective of how changes in technologies, markets and transportation are likely to affect the management and conservation of tropical forests. The paper defines a research challenge to direct and harness science and innovation towards increasing the productivity of forests and reducing the environmental costs associated with forest industries and products.     

Alternatives to biodiversity offsets for mitigating the effects of urbanization on stream ecosystems

Globally, offset schemes have emerged in many statutory frameworks relating to development activities, with the aim of balancing biodiversity conservation and development. Although the theory and use of biodiversity offsets in terrestrial environments is broadly documented, little attention has been paid to offsets in stream ecosystems. Here we examine the application of offset schemes to stream ecosystems and explore whether they suffer similar shortcomings to those of offset schemes focused on terrestrial biodiversity. To challenge the applicability of offsets further, we discuss typical trajectories of urban expansion and their cascading physical, chemical and biological impacts on stream ecosystems. We argue that the highly connected nature of stream ecosystems and urban drainage networks can transfer impacts of urbanization across wide areas, complicating the notion of like‐for‐like exchange and the prospect of effectively mitigating biodiversity loss. Instead, we identify in‐catchment options for stormwater control, which can avoid or minimize the impacts of development on downstream ecosystems, while presenting additional public and private benefits. We describe the underlying principles of these alternatives, some of the challenges associated with their uptake, and policy initiatives being trialed to facilitate adoption. In conclusion, we argue that stronger policies to avoid and minimize the impacts of urbanization provide better prospects for protecting downstream ecosystems, and can additionally, stimulate economic opportunities and improve urban liveability.     

Threshold responses of Amazonian stream fishes to timing and extent of deforestation

Deforestation is a primary driver of biodiversity change through habitat loss and fragmentation. Stream biodiversity may not respond to deforestation in a simple linear relationship. Rather, threshold responses to extent and timing of deforestation may occur. Identification of critical deforestation thresholds is needed for effective conservation and management. We tested for threshold responses of fish species and functional groups to degree of watershed and riparian zone deforestation and time since impact in 75 streams in the western Brazilian Amazon. We used remote sensing to assess deforestation from 1984 to 2011. Fish assemblages were sampled with seines and dip nets in a standardized manner. Fish species (n = 84) were classified into 20 functional groups based on ecomorphological traits associated with habitat use, feeding, and locomotion. Threshold responses were quantified using threshold indicator taxa analysis. Negative threshold responses to deforestation were common and consistently occurred at very low levels of deforestation (<20%) and soon after impact (<10 years). Sensitive species were functionally unique and associated with complex habitats and structures of allochthonous origin found in forested watersheds. Positive threshold responses of species were less common and generally occurred at >70% deforestation and >10 years after impact. Findings were similar at the community level for both taxonomic and functional analyses. Because most negative threshold responses occurred at low levels of deforestation and soon after impact, even minimal change is expected to negatively affect biodiversity. Delayed positive threshold responses to extreme deforestation by a few species do not offset the loss of sensitive taxa and likely contribute to biotic homogenization.     

Amazonian deforestation and soil biodiversity

Clearance and perturbation of Amazonian forests are one of the greatest threats to tropical biodiversity conservation of our times. A better understanding of how soil communities respond to Amazonian deforestation is crucially needed to inform policy interventions that effectively protect biodiversity and the essential ecosystem services it provides. We assessed the impact of deforestation and ecosystem conversion to arable land on Amazonian soil biodiversity through a meta-analysis. We analyzed 274 pairwise comparisons of soil biodiversity in Amazonian primary forests and sites under different stages of deforestation and land-use conversion: disturbed (wildfire and selective logging) and slash-and-burnt forests, pastures, and cropping systems. Overall, 60% and 51% of responses of soil macrofauna and microbial community attributes (i.e., abundance, biomass, richness, and diversity indexes) to deforestation were negative, respectively. We found few studies on mesofauna (e.g., microarthropods) and microfauna (e.g., protozoa and nematodes), so those groups could not be analyzed. Macrofauna abundance and biomass were more vulnerable to the displacement of forests by pastures than by agricultural fields, whereas microbes showed the opposite pattern. Effects of Amazonian deforestation on macrofauna were more detrimental at sites with mean annual precipitation >1900 mm, and higher losses of microbes occurred in highly acidic soils (pH < 4.5). Limited geographic coverage, omission of meso- and microfauna, and low taxonomic resolution were main factors impairing generalizations from the data set. Few studies assessed the impacts of within-forest disturbance (wildfires and selective logging) on soil species in Amazonia, where logging operations rapidly expand across public lands and more frequent severe dry seasons are increasing the prevalence of wildfires.     

Effects of national forest‐management regimes on unprotected forests of the Himalaya

Globally, deforestation continues, and although protected areas effectively protect forests, the majority of forests are not in protected areas. Thus, how effective are different management regimes to avoid deforestation in non‐protected forests? We sought to assess the effectiveness of different national forest‐management regimes to safeguard forests outside protected areas. We compared 2000–2014 deforestation rates across the temperate forests of 5 countries in the Himalaya (Bhutan, Nepal, China, India, and Myanmar) of which 13% are protected. We reviewed the literature to characterize forest management regimes in each country and conducted a quasi‐experimental analysis to measure differences in deforestation of unprotected forests among countries and states in India. Countries varied in both overarching forest‐management goals and specific tenure arrangements and policies for unprotected forests, from policies emphasizing economic development to those focused on forest conservation. Deforestation rates differed up to 1.4% between countries, even after accounting for local determinants of deforestation, such as human population density, market access, and topography. The highest deforestation rates were associated with forest policies aimed at maximizing profits and unstable tenure regimes. Deforestation in national forest‐management regimes that emphasized conservation and community management were relatively low. In India results were consistent with the national‐level results. We interpreted our results in the context of the broader literature on decentralized, community‐based natural resource management, and our findings emphasize that the type and quality of community‐based forestry programs and the degree to which they are oriented toward sustainable use rather than economic development are important for forest protection. Our cross‐national results are consistent with results from site‐ and regional‐scale studies that show forest‐management regimes that ensure stable land tenure and integrate local‐livelihood benefits with forest conservation result in the best forest outcomes.     

Indigenous land rights and deforestation: Evidence from the Brazilian Amazon

Concerns over the expropriation of and encroachment on indigenous communities' lands have led to greater formalization of these communities' rights in a number of developing countries. We study whether formalization of indigenous communities' land rights affects the rate of deforestation in both the short and medium terms. Beginning in 1995, the Government of Brazil formalized the rights of several hundred indigenous communities whose lands cover more than 40 million hectares in the Amazon region and provided support for these rights’ enforcement. We study the program's impacts using a long time-series of satellite-based forest cover data. Using both plausibly exogenous variation in the timing of formalization and matched samples of treated and comparison communities, we find no effect of these protections on satellite-based greenness measures. This is true even for communities that received support for surveillance and enforcement of these rights. Notably, we observe low counterfactual rates of deforestation on communities' lands between 1982 and 2010, suggesting that indigenous land rights programs should not uniformly be justified on the basis of their forest protection, at least in the medium term.     

Inhibition of Amazon Deforestation and Fire by Parks and Indigenous Lands

Abstract:  Conservation scientists generally agree that many types of protected areas will be needed to protect tropical forests. But little is known of the comparative performance of inhabited and uninhabited reserves in slowing the most extreme form of forest disturbance: conversion to agriculture. We used satellite-based maps of land cover and fire occurrence in the Brazilian Amazon to compare the performance of large (>10,000 ha) uninhabited (parks) and inhabited (indigenous lands, extractive reserves, and national forests) reserves. Reserves significantly reduced both deforestation and fire. Deforestation was 1.7 (extractive reserves) to 20 (parks) times higher along the outside versus the inside of the reserve perimeters and fire occurrence was 4 (indigenous lands) to 9 (national forests) times higher. No strong difference in the inhibition of deforestation ( p = 0.11) or fire ( p = 0.34) was found between parks and indigenous lands. However, uninhabited reserves tended to be located away from areas of high deforestation and burning rates. In contrast, indigenous lands were often created in response to frontier expansion, and many prevented deforestation completely despite high rates of deforestation along their boundaries. The inhibitory effect of indigenous lands on deforestation was strong after centuries of contact with the national society and was not correlated with indigenous population density. Indigenous lands occupy one-fifth of the Brazilian Amazon—five times the area under protection in parks—and are currently the most important barrier to Amazon deforestation. As the protected-area network expands from 36% to 41% of the Brazilian Amazon over the coming years, the greatest challenge will be successful reserve implementation in high-risk areas of frontier expansion as indigenous lands are strengthened. This success will depend on a broad base of political support.     

Understand the local and regional contributions on air pollution from the view of human health impacts

• PM_2.5-related deaths were estimated to be 227 thousand in BTH & surrounding regions. • Local emissions contribute more to PM_2.5-related deaths than PM_2.5 concentration. • Local controls are underestimated if only considering its impacts on concentrations. • Rural residents suffer larger impacts of regional transport than urban residents. • Reducing regional transport benefits in mitigating environmental inequality. The source-receptor matrix of PM_2.5 concentration from local and regional sources in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) and surrounding provinces has been created in previous studies. However, because the spatial distribution of concentration does not necessarily match with that of the population, such concentration-based source-receptor matrix may not fully reflect the importance of pollutant control effectiveness in reducing the PM_2.5-related health impacts. To demonstrate that, we study the source-receptor matrix of the PM_2.5-related deaths instead, with inclusion of the spatial correlations between the concentrations and the population. The advanced source apportionment numerical model combined with the integrated exposure–response functions is used for BTH and surrounding regions in 2017. We observed that the relative contribution to PM_2.5-related deaths of local emissions was 0.75% to 20.77% larger than that of PM_2.5 concentrations. Such results address the importance of local emissions control for reducing health impacts of PM_2.5 particularly for local residents. Contribution of regional transport to PM_2.5-related deaths in rural area was 22% larger than that in urban area due to the spatial pattern of regional transport which was more related to the rural population. This resulted in an environmental inequality in the sense that people staying in rural area with access to less educational resources are subjected to higher impacts from regional transport as compared with their more resourceful and knowledgeable urban compatriots. An unexpected benefit from the multi-regional joint controls is suggested for its effectiveness in reducing the regional transport of PM_2.5 pollution thus mitigating the associated environmental inequality.     

The rate and extent of deforestation in watersheds of the southwestern Amazon basin.

The rate and extent of deforestation determine the timing and magnitude of disturbance to both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Rapid change can lead to transient impacts to hydrology and biogeochemistry, while complete and permanent conversion to other land uses can lead to chronic changes. A large population of watershed boundaries (N=4788) and a time series of Landsat TM imagery (1975-1999) in the southwestern Amazon Basin showed that even small watersheds (2.5-15 km2) were deforested relatively slowly over 7-21 years. Less than 1% of all small watersheds were more than 50% cleared in a single year, and clearing rates averaged 5.6%/yr during active clearing. A large proportion (26%) of the small watersheds had a cumulative deforestation extent of more than 75%. The cumulative deforestation extent was highly spatially autocorrelated up to a 100-150 km lag due to the geometry of the agricultural zone and road network, so watersheds as large as approximately 40000 km2 were more than 50% deforested by 1999. The rate of deforestation had minimal spatial autocorrelation beyond a lag of approximately 30 km, and the mean rate decreased rapidly with increasing area. Approximately 85% of the cleared area remained in pasture, so deforestation in watersheds of Rond?nia was a relatively slow, permanent, and complete transition to pasture, rather than a rapid, transient, and partial cutting with regrowth. Given the observed landcover transitions, the regional stream biogeochemical response is likely to resemble the chronic changes observed in streams draining established pastures, rather than a temporary pulse from slash-and-burn.     

Potential Misuse of Avian Density as a Conservation Metric

Abstract: Effective conservation metrics are needed to evaluate the success of management in a rapidly changing world. Reproductive rates and densities of breeding birds (as a surrogate for reproductive rate) have been used to indicate the quality of avian breeding habitat, but the underlying assumptions of these metrics rarely have been examined. When birds are attracted to breeding areas in part by the presence of conspecifics and when breeding in groups influences predation rates, the effectiveness of density and reproductive rate as indicators of habitat quality is reduced. It is beneficial to clearly distinguish between individual‐ and population‐level processes when evaluating habitat quality. We use the term reproductive rate to refer to both levels and further distinguish among levels by using the terms per capita fecundity (number of female offspring per female per year, individual level) and population growth rate (the product of density and per capita fecundity, population level). We predicted how density and reproductive rate interact over time under density‐independent and density‐dependent scenarios, assuming the ideal free distribution model of how birds settle in breeding habitats. We predicted population density of small populations would be correlated positively with both per capita fecundity and population growth rate due to the Allee effect. For populations in the density‐dependent growth phase, we predicted no relation between density and per capita fecundity (because individuals in all patches will equilibrate to the same success rate) and a positive relation between density and population growth rate. Several ecological theories collectively suggest that positive correlations between density and per capita fecundity would be difficult to detect. We constructed a decision tree to guide interpretation of positive, neutral, nonlinear, and negative relations between density and reproductive rates at individual and population levels.     

Critically evaluating best management practices for preventing freshwater turtle extinctions

Ex situ conservation tools, such as captive breeding for reintroduction, are considered a last resort to recover threatened or endangered species, but they may also help reduce anthropogenic threats where it is difficult or impossible to address them directly. Headstarting, or captive rearing of eggs or neonate animals for subsequent release into the wild, is controversial because it treats only a symptom of a larger conservation problem; however, it may provide a mechanism to address multiple threats, particularly near population centers. We conducted a population viability analysis of Australia's most widespread freshwater turtle, Chelodina longicollis, to determine the effect of adult roadkill (death by collision with motor vehicles), which is increasing, and reduced recruitment through nest predation from introduced European red foxes (Vulpes vulpes). We also modeled management scenarios to test the effectiveness of headstarting, fox management, and measures to reduce mortality on roads. Only scenarios with headstarting from source populations eliminated all risks of extinction and allowed population growth. Small increases in adult mortality (2%) had the greatest effect on population growth and extinction risk. Where threats simultaneously affected other life‐history stages (e.g., recruitment), eliminating harvest pressures on adult females alone did not eliminate the risk of population extinction. In our models, one source population could supply enough hatchlings annually to supplement 25 other similar‐sized populations such that extinction was avoided. Based on our results, we believe headstarting should be a primary tool for managing freshwater turtles for which threats affect multiple life‐history stages. We advocate the creation of source populations for managing freshwater turtles that are greatly threatened at multiple life‐history stages, such as depredation of eggs by invasive species and adult mortality via roadkill.     

Lower genetic diversity in the limpet <Emphasis Type="Italic">Patella caerulea</Emphasis> on urban coastal structures compared to natural rocky habitats

Human-made structures are increasingly found in marine coastal habitats. The aim of the present study was to explore whether urban coastal structures can affect the genetic variation of hard-bottom species. We conducted a population genetic analysis on the limpet Patella caerulea sampled in both natural and artificial habitats along the Adriatic coast. Five microsatellite loci were used to test for differences in genetic diversity and structure among samples. Three microsatellite loci showed strong Hardy–Weinberg disequilibrium likely linked with the presence of null alleles. Genetic diversity was significantly higher in natural habitat than in artificial habitat. A weak but significant differentiation over all limpet samples was observed, but not related to the type of habitat. While the exact causes of the differences in genetic diversity deserve further investigation, these results clearly point that the expansion of urban structures can lead to genetic diversity loss at regional scales.     

Using the past to contextualize anthropogenic impacts on the present and future distribution of an endemic Caribbean mammal

Island species are difficult to conserve because they face the synergy of climate change, invasive species, deforestation, and increasing human population densities in areas where land mass is shrinking. The Caribbean island of Hispaniola presents particular challenges because of geopolitical complexities that span 2 countries and hinder coordinated management of species across the island. We employed species distribution modeling to evaluate the impacts of climatic change and anthropogenic activities on the distribution of an endemic mammal of conservation concern, the Hispaniolan solenodon (Solenodon paradoxus). We aggregated occurrence points for this poorly known species for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the present (1975–2016) based on museum collections, online biodiversity databases, and new field surveys. We quantified degree of overlap between periods and scenarios with Schoener's D. Through a conservation paleobiology lens, we found that over time humans played an increasing role in shaping the distribution of S. paradoxus, thus, providing a foundation for developing conservation strategies on appropriate spatiotemporal scales. Human population density was the single most important predictor of S. paradoxus occurrence. Densities >166 people/km² corresponded to a near-zero probability of occurrence. Models that accounted for climate but not anthropogenic variables falsely identified suitable habitat in Haiti, where on-the-ground surveys confirm habitat is unavailable. Climate-only models also significantly overestimated the potential for habitat connectivity between isolated populations. Our work highlights that alternative fates for S. paradoxus in the Anthropocene exist across the political border between the Dominican Republic and Haiti due to the fundamentally different economic and political realities of each country. Relationships in the fossil record confirm that Hispaniola's sociopolitical boundary is not biologically significant but instead represents one imposed on the island's fauna in the past 500 years by colonial activity. Our approach reveals how a paleontological perspective can contribute to concrete management insights.