Ecosystem responses to climate change at a Low Arctic and a High Arctic long-term research site

Long-term measurements of ecological effects of warming are often not statistically significant because of annual variability or signal noise. These are reduced in indicators that filter or reduce the noise around the signal and allow effects of climate warming to emerge. In this way, certain indicators act as medium pass filters integrating the signal over years-to-decades. In the Alaskan Arctic, the 25-year record of warming of air temperature revealed no significant trend, yet environmental and ecological changes prove that warming is affecting the ecosystem. The useful indicators are deep permafrost temperatures, vegetation and shrub biomass, satellite measures of canopy reflectance (NDVI), and chemical measures of soil weathering. In contrast, the 18-year record in the Greenland Arctic revealed an extremely high summer air-warming of 1.3 °C/decade; the cover of some plant species increased while the cover of others decreased. Useful indicators of change are NDVI and the active layer thickness.     

Status and trends in Arctic vegetation: Evidence from experimental warming and long-term monitoring

Changes in Arctic vegetation can have important implications for trophic interactions and ecosystem functioning leading to climate feedbacks. Plot-based vegetation surveys provide detailed insight into vegetation changes at sites around the Arctic and improve our ability to predict the impacts of environmental change on tundra ecosystems. Here, we review studies of changes in plant community composition and phenology from both long-term monitoring and warming experiments in Arctic environments. We find that Arctic plant communities and species are generally sensitive to warming, but trends over a period of time are heterogeneous and complex and do not always mirror expectations based on responses to experimental manipulations. Our findings highlight the need for more geographically widespread, integrated, and comprehensive monitoring efforts that can better resolve the interacting effects of warming and other local and regional ecological factors.     

Uptake of radionuclides by vegetation at a High Arctic location

Radionuclide levels in vegetation from a High Arctic location were studied and compared to in situ soil concentrations. Levels of the anthropogenic radionuclide 137Cs and the natural radionuclides 40K, 238U, 226Ra and 232Th are discussed and transfer factor (TF) values and aggregated transfer (Tag) values are calculated for vascular plants. Levels of 137Cs in vegetation generally followed the order mosses > lichen > vascular plants. The uptake of 137Cs in vascular plants showed an inverse relationship with the uptake of 40K, with 137Cs TF and Tag values generally higher than 40K TF and Tag values. 40K activity concentrations in all vegetation showed little correlation to associated soil concentrations, while the uptake of 238U, 226Ra and 232Th by vascular and non-vascular plants was generally low.     

Building resilience and adaptation to manage Arctic change

Unprecedented global changes caused by human actions challenge society's ability to sustain the desirable features of our planet. This requires proactive management of change to foster both resilience (sustaining those attributes that are important to society in the face of change) and adaptation (developing new socioecological configurations that function effectively under new conditions). The Arctic may be one of the last remaining opportunities to plan for change in a spatially extensive region where many of the ancestral ecological and social processes and feedbacks are still intact. If the feasibility of this strategy can be demonstrated in the Arctic, our improved understanding of the dynamics of change can be applied to regions with greater human modification. Conditions may now be ideal to implement policies to manage Arctic change because recent studies provide the essential scientific understanding, appropriate international institutions are in place, and Arctic nations have the wealth to institute necessary changes, if they choose to do so.     

Challenges of climate change: an Arctic perspective

Climate change is being experienced particularly intensely in the Arctic. Arctic average temperature has risen at almost twice the rate as that of the rest of the world in the past few decades. Widespread melting of glaciers and sea ice and rising permafrost temperatures present additional evidence of strong Arctic warming. These changes in the Arctic provide an early indication of the environmental and societal significance of global consequences. The Arctic also provides important natural resources to the rest of the world (such as oil, gas, and fish) that will be affected by climate change, and the melting of Arctic glaciers is one of the factors contributing to sea level rise around the globe. An acceleration of these climatic trends is projected to occur during this century, due to ongoing increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere. These Arctic changes will, in turn, impact the planet as a whole.     

The Arctic in an earth system context: from brake to accelerator of change

Human activities over the past few centuries have profoundly changed the functioning of the earth system as a whole. These changes are particularly evident in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, where environmental change has been pronounced and rapid. Such changes have implications beyond the region, as they can lead to two important feedback processes: the ice-albedo feedback and the terrestrial carbon cycle-climate feedback. These processes play an exceptionally important role in earth system functioning, particularly because they may switch this century from damping the effects of anthropogenic climate change to accelerating them. Rapid environmental change in the high latitudes also has consequences for issues of direct importance to humans, particularly water resources.     

Pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) in Arctic environments: indicator contaminants for assessing local and remote anthropogenic sources in a pristine ecosystem in change

A first review on occurrence and distribution of pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) is presented. The literature survey conducted here was initiated by the current Assessment of the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP). This first review on the occurrence and environmental profile of PPCPs in the Arctic identified the presence of 110 related substances in the Arctic environment based on the reports from scientific publications, national and regional assessments and surveys, as well as academic research studies (i.e., PhD theses). PPCP residues were reported in virtually all environmental compartments from coastal seawater to high trophic level biota. For Arctic environments, domestic and municipal wastes as well as sewage are identified as primary release sources. However, the absence of modern waste water treatment plants (WWTPs), even in larger settlements in the Arctic, is resulting in relatively high release rates for selected PPCPs into the receiving Arctic (mainly) aquatic environment. Pharmaceuticals are designed with specific biochemical functions as a part of an integrated therapeutically procedure. This biochemical effect may cause unwanted environmental toxicological effects on non-target organisms when the compound is released into the environment. In the Arctic environments, pharmaceutical residues are released into low to very low ambient temperatures mainly into aqueous environments. Low biodegradability and, thus, prolonged residence time must be expected for the majority of the pharmaceuticals entering the aquatic system. The environmental toxicological consequence of the continuous PPCP release is, thus, expected to be different in the Arctic compared to the temperate regions of the globe. Exposure risks for Arctic human populations due to consumption of contaminated local fish and invertebrates or through exposure to resistant microbial communities cannot be excluded. However, the scientific results reported and summarized here, published in 23 relevant papers and reports (see Table S1 and following references), must still be considered as indication only. Comprehensive environmental studies on the fate, environmental toxicology, and distribution profiles of pharmaceuticals applied in high volumes and released into the Nordic environment under cold Northern climate conditions should be given high priority by national and international authorities.     

Atmospheric composition change research: Time to go post-normal?

For more than two decades a number of frameworks for scientific knowledge production are being proposed by science and technology researchers. They all advocate an extended involvement of non-specialists, in particular when it comes to knowledge production applicable to practical societal problems. We look to what extent these new frameworks have taken ground within a particular research community: the ACCENT Network of Excellence which coordinates European atmospheric chemistry and physics research applicable to air pollution and climate change. We did so by stimulating a debate through a “blog”, a survey and in-depth interviews with ACCENT scientists about the interaction between science, policy making and civil society, to which a great deal of ACCENT member contributed in writing or verbally. Most of them had interactions with policy makers and/or the general public, and they generally believe that interactions with spheres other than the scientific are needed. While such interactions give personal insight and satisfaction, they seem to have little impact on the goals and the practice of the scientific work itself. Extended frameworks of science production that go beyond the disciplinary mode seem to emerge at the level of individual scientists, yet they still need to find their way to the level of scientific project management. In this paper we discuss the justifications and barriers to implement a higher degree of extended knowledge integration in applied science projects such as ACCENT. It is felt that the community of atmospheric chemists and physicists is mature for such an implementation and recommendations are given to help and make this happen.     

Sources and pathways of artificial radionuclides to soils at a High Arctic site

Activity concentrations, inventories and activity ratios of ¹³⁷Cs, ²³⁸Pu, ^239?+?240Pu and ²⁴¹Am in soil profiles were surveyed in the dry tundra and the adjoining proglacial zones of glaciers at a High Arctic site on Svalbard. Vertical profiles of radionuclide activities were determined in up to 14-cm-thick soil sequences. Additionally, soil properties (pH, organic matter, texture, mineral composition and sorption capacity) were analyzed. Results obtained in this study revealed a large range of activity concentrations and inventories of the fallout radionuclides from the undetectable to the uncommonly high levels (inventories of 30,900?±?940, 47?±?6, 886?±?80 and 296?±?19 Bq/m² for ¹³⁷Cs, ²³⁸Pu, ^239?+?240Pu and ²⁴¹Am, respectively) found in two profiles from the proglacial zone. Concentration of these initially airborne radionuclides in the proglacial zone soils is related to their accumulation in cryoconites that have a large ability to concentrate trace metals. The cryoconites develop on the surface of glaciers, and the material they accumulate is deposited on land surface after the glaciers retreat. The radionuclide inventories in the tundra soils, which effectively retain radionuclides due to high organic matter contents, were comparable to the global fallout deposition for this region of the world. The ²³⁸Pu/^239?+?240Pu activity ratios for tundra soils suggested global fallout as the dominant source of Pu. The ²³⁸Pu/^239?+?240Pu and ^239?+?240Pu/¹³⁷Cs activity ratios in the proglacial soils pointed to possible contributions of these radionuclides from other, unidentified sources.     

Nutrient pathways and their susceptibility to past and future change in the Eurasian Arctic Ocean

Climate change is altering nutrient cycling within the Arctic Ocean, having knock-on effects to Arctic ecosystems. Primary production in the Arctic is principally nitrogen-limited, particularly in the western Pacific-dominated regions where denitrification exacerbates nitrogen loss. The nutrient status of the eastern Eurasian Arctic remains under debate. In the Barents Sea, primary production has increased by 88% since 1998. To support this rapid increase in productivity, either the standing stock of nutrients has been depleted, or the external nutrient supply has increased. Atlantic water inflow, enhanced mixing, benthic nitrogen cycling, and land–ocean interaction have the potential to alter the nutrient supply through addition, dilution or removal. Here we use new datasets from the Changing Arctic Ocean program alongside historical datasets to assess how nitrate and phosphate concentrations may be changing in response to these processes. We highlight how nutrient dynamics may continue to change, why this is important for regional and international policy-making and suggest relevant research priorities for the future.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01673-0.     

General effects of climate change on Arctic fishes and fish populations

Projected shifts in climate forcing variables such as temperature and precipitation are of great relevance to arctic freshwater ecosystems and biota. These will result in many direct and indirect effects upon the ecosystems and fish present therein. Shifts projected for fish populations will range from positive to negative in overall effect, differ among species and also among populations within species depending upon their biology and tolerances, and will be integrated by the fish within their local aquascapes. This results in a wide range of future possibilities for arctic freshwater and diadromous fishes. Owing to a dearth of basic knowledge regarding fish biology and habitat interactions in the north, complicated by scaling issues and uncertainty in future climate projections, only qualitative scenarios can be developed in most cases. This limits preparedness to meet challenges of climate change in the Arctic with respect to fish and fisheries.     

Transitions in high-Arctic vegetation growth patterns and ecosystem productivity tracked with automated cameras from 2000 to 2013

Climate-induced changes in vegetation phenology at northern latitudes are still poorly understood. Continued monitoring and research are therefore needed to improve the understanding of abiotic drivers. Here we used 14 years of time lapse imagery and climate data from high-Arctic Northeast Greenland to assess the seasonal response of a dwarf shrub heath, grassland, and fen, to inter-annual variation in snow-cover, soil moisture, and air and soil temperatures. A late snow melt and start of growing season is counterbalanced by a fast greenup and a tendency to higher peak greenness values. Snow water equivalents and soil moisture explained up to 77 % of growing season duration and senescence phase, highlighting that water availability is a prominent driver in the heath site, rather than temperatures. We found a significant advance in the start of spring by 10 days and in the end of fall by 11 days, resulting in an unchanged growing season length. Vegetation greenness, derived from the imagery, was correlated to primary productivity, showing that the imagery holds valuable information on vegetation productivity.     

The exchange of ozone between vegetation and atmosphere: micrometeorological measurement techniques and models

The European critical levels (CLs) to protect vegetation are expressed as an accumulative exposure over a threshold of 40 ppb (nl l(-1)). In view of the fact that these chamber-derived CLs are based on ozone (O(3)) concentrations at the top of the canopy the correct application to ambient conditions presupposes the application of Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere-Transfer (SVAT) models for quantifying trace gas exchange between phytosphere and atmosphere. Especially in the context of establishing control strategies based on flux-oriented dose-response relationships, O(3) flux measurements and O(3) exchange simulations are needed for representative ecosystems. During the last decades several micrometeorological methods for quantifying energy and trace gas exchange were developed, as well as models for the simulation of the exchange of trace gases between phytosphere and atmosphere near the ground. This paper is a synthesis of observational and modeling techniques which discusses measurement methods, assumptions, and limitations and current modeling approaches. Because stomatal resistance for trace gas exchange is parameterized as a function of water vapor or carbon dioxide (CO(2)) exchange, the most important micrometeorological techniques especially for quantifying O(3), water vapor and CO(2) flux densities are discussed. A comparison of simulated and measured O(3) flux densities shows good agreement in the mean.     

The use of autecological and environmental parameters for establishing the status of lichen vegetation in a baseline study for a long-term monitoring survey

In 1997 the ecological characteristics of the epiphytic species (83 lichens and two algae) of an urban area (Grenoble, France) were determined. Seven autecological indices were used to characterize the lichen ecology: illumination index, humidity index, pH of bark, nutrient status of substratum, ecological index of IAP and frequency. Six clusters (A1-A6) were defined using cluster analysis and principal component analysis. Seven environmental parameters characterizing the stations and the lichen releves were also used: elevation, parameters of artificiality (urbanization, traffic and local land use), IAP, and the percentage of nitrophytic and acidophytic species. Six clusters (B1-B6) were defined using cluster analysis and canonical correspondence analysis. Four clusters (C1-C4) were finally defined using an empirical integrated method combining the autecological and environmental parameters. This final clustering which established the status of the lichen vegetation in 1997 can be reliably used as a baseline study to effectively monitor environmental changes in this urban area.     

Advances in science and applications of air pollution monitoring: A case study on oil sands monitoring targeting ecosystem protection

The potential environmental impact of air pollutants emitted from the oil sands industry in Alberta, Canada, has received considerable attention. The mining and processing of bitumen to produce synthetic crude oil, and the waste products associated with this activity, lead to significant emissions of gaseous and particle air pollutants. Deposition of pollutants occurs locally (i.e., near the sources) and also potentially at distances downwind, depending upon each pollutant’s chemical and physical properties and meteorological conditions. The Joint Oil Sands Monitoring Program (JOSM) was initiated in 2012 by the Government of Canada and the Province of Alberta to enhance or improve monitoring of pollutants and their potential impacts. In support of JOSM, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) undertook a significant research effort via three components: the Air, Water, and Wildlife components, which were implemented to better estimate baseline conditions related to levels of pollutants in the air and water, amounts of deposition, and exposures experienced by the biota. The criteria air contaminants (e.g., nitrogen oxides [NO_x], sulfur dioxide [SO₂], volatile organic compounds [VOCs], particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm [PM_2.5]) and their secondary atmospheric products were of interest, as well as toxic compounds, particularly polycyclic aromatic compounds (PACs), trace metals, and mercury (Hg). This critical review discusses the challenges of assessing ecosystem impacts and summarizes the major results of these efforts through approximately 2018. Focus is on the emissions to the air and the findings from the Air Component of the ECCC research and linkages to observations of contaminant levels in the surface waters in the region, in aquatic species, as well as in terrestrial and avian species. The existing evidence of impact on these species is briefly discussed, as is the potential for some of them to serve as sentinel species for the ongoing monitoring needed to better understand potential effects, their potential causes, and to detect future changes. Quantification of the atmospheric emissions of multiple pollutants needs to be improved, as does an understanding of the processes influencing fugitive emissions and local and regional deposition patterns. The influence of multiple stressors on biota exposure and response, from natural bitumen and forest fires to climate change, complicates the current ability to attribute effects to air emissions from the industry. However, there is growing evidence of the impact of current levels of PACs on some species, pointing to the need to improve the ability to predict PAC exposures and the key emission source involved. Although this critical review attempts to integrate some of the findings across the components, in terms of ECCC activities, increased coordination or integration of air, water, and wildlife research would enhance deeper scientific understanding. Improved understanding is needed in order to guide the development of long-term monitoring strategies that could most efficiently inform a future adaptive management approach to oil sands environmental monitoring and prevention of impacts.

Implications: Quantification of atmospheric emissions for multiple pollutants needs to be improved, and reporting mechanisms and standards could be adapted to facilitate such improvements, including periodic validation, particularly where uncertainties are the largest. Understanding of baseline conditions in the air, water and biota has improved significantly; ongoing enhanced monitoring, building on this progress, will help improve ecosystem protection measures in the oil sands region. Sentinel species have been identified that could be used to identify and characterize potential impacts of wildlife exposure, both locally and regionally. Polycyclic aromatic compounds are identified as having an impact on aquatic and terrestrial wildlife at current concentration levels although the significance of these impacts and attribution to emissions from oil sands development requires further assessment. Given the improvement in high resolution air quality prediction models, these should be a valuable tool to future environmental assessments and cumulative environment impact assessments.     

Virtual landscape-scale restoration of altered channels helps us understand the extent of impacts to guide future ecosystem management

Human modification of hydrological connectivity of landscapes has had significant consequences on ecosystem functioning. Artificial drainage practices have fundamentally altered northern landscapes, yet these man made channels are rarely considered in ecosystem management. To better understand the effects of drainage ditches, we conducted a landscape-scale analysis across eleven selected study regions in Sweden. We implemented a unique approach by backfilling ditches in the current digital elevation model to recreate the prehistoric landscape, thus quantifying and characterizing the channel networks of prehistoric (natural) and current (drained) landscapes. Our analysis detected that 58% of the prehistoric natural channels had been converted to ditches. Even more striking was that the average channel density increased from 1.33 km km⁻² in the prehistoric landscape to 4.66 km km⁻² in the current landscape, indicating the extent of ditching activities in the northern regions. These results highlight that man-made ditches should be accurately mapped across northern landscapes to enable more informed decisions in ecosystem management.     

Effects on the structure of Arctic ecosystems in the short- and long-term perspectives

Species individualistic responses to warming and increased UV-B radiation are moderated by the responses of neighbors within communities, and trophic interactions within ecosystems. All of these responses lead to changes in ecosystem structure. Experimental manipulation of environmental factors expected to change at high latitudes showed that summer warming of tundra vegetation has generally led to smaller changes than fertilizer addition. Some of the factors manipulated have strong effects on the structure of Arctic ecosystems but the effects vary regionally, with the greatest response of plant and invertebrate communities being observed at the coldest locations. Arctic invertebrate communities are very likely to respond rapidly to warming whereas microbial biomass and nutrient stocks are more stable. Experimentally enhanced UV-B radiation altered the community composition of gram-negative bacteria and fungi, but not that of plants. Increased plant productivity due to warmer summers may dominate food-web dynamics. Trophic interactions of tundra and sub-Arctic forest plant-based food webs are centered on a few dominant animal species which often have cyclic population fluctuations that lead to extremely high peak abundances in some years. Population cycles of small rodents and insect defoliators such as the autumn moth affect the structure and diversity of tundra and forest-tundra vegetation and the viability of a number of specialist predators and parasites. Ice crusting in warmer winters is likely to reduce the accessibility of plant food to lemmings, while deep snow may protect them from snow-surface predators. In Fennoscandia, there is evidence already for a pronounced shift in small rodent community structure and dynamics that have resulted in a decline of predators that specialize in feeding on small rodents. Climate is also likely to alter the role of insect pests in the birch forest system: warmer winters may increase survival of eggs and expand the range of the insects. Insects that harass reindeer in the summer are also likely to become more widespread, abundant and active during warmer summers while refuges for reindeer/caribou on glaciers and late snow patches will probably disappear.     

Effects on the function of Arctic ecosystems in the short- and long-term perspectives

Historically, the function of Arctic ecosystems in terms of cycles of nutrients and carbon has led to low levels of primary production and exchanges of energy, water and greenhouse gases have led to low local and regional cooling. Sequestration of carbon from atmospheric CO2, in extensive, cold organic soils and the high albedo from low, snow-covered vegetation have had impacts on regional climate. However, many aspects of the functioning of Arctic ecosystems are sensitive to changes in climate and its impacts on biodiversity. The current Arctic climate results in slow rates of organic matter decomposition. Arctic ecosystems therefore tend to accumulate organic matter and elements despite low inputs. As a result, soil-available elements like nitrogen and phosphorus are key limitations to increases in carbon fixation and further biomass and organic matter accumulation. Climate warming is expected to increase carbon and element turnover, particularly in soils, which may lead to initial losses of elements but eventual, slow recovery. Individual species and species diversity have clear impacts on element inputs and retention in Arctic ecosystems. Effects of increased CO2 and UV-B on whole ecosystems, on the other hand, are likely to be small although effects on plant tissue chemisty, decomposition and nitrogen fixation may become important in the long-term. Cycling of carbon in trace gas form is mainly as CO2 and CH4. Most carbon loss is in the form of CO2, produced by both plants and soil biota. Carbon emissions as methane from wet and moist tundra ecosystems are about 5% of emissions as CO2 and are responsive to warming in the absence of any other changes. Winter processes and vegetation type also affect CH4 emissions as well as exchanges of energy between biosphere and atmosphere. Arctic ecosystems exhibit the largest seasonal changes in energy exchange of any terrestrial ecosystem because of the large changes in albedo from late winter, when snow reflects most incoming radiation, to summer when the ecosystem absorbs most incoming radiation. Vegetation profoundly influences the water and energy exchange of Arctic ecosystems. Albedo during the period of snow cover declines from tundra to forest tundra to deciduous forest to evergreen forest. Shrubs and trees increase snow depth which in turn increases winter soil temperatures. Future changes in vegetation driven by climate change are therefore, very likely to profoundly alter regional climate.