Risk and Uncertainties,Analysis and Evaluation: Lessons for Adaptation and Integration

This paper draws ten lessons from analyses of adaptation to climate change under conditions of risk and uncertainty: (1) Socio-economic systems will likely respond most to extreme realizations of climate change. (2) Systems have been responding to variations in climate for centuries. (3) Future change will effect future citizens and their institutions. (4) Human systems can be the sources of surprise. (5) Perceptions of risk depend upon welfare valuations that depend upon expectations. (6) Adaptive decisions will be made in response to climate change and climate change policy. (7) Analysis of adaptive decisions should recognize the second-best context of those decisions. (8) Climate change offers opportunity as well as risk. (9) All plausible futures should be explored. (10) Multiple methodological approaches should be accommodated. These lessons support two pieces of advice for the Third Assessment Report: (1) Work toward consensus, but not at the expense of thorough examination and reporting of the "tails" of the distributions of the future. (2) Integrated assessment is only one unifying methodology; others that can better accommodate those tails should be encouraged and embraced.     

杀虫剂及抗生素对发光菌的短期毒性与长期毒性

以毒物对青海弧菌Q67 (Vibrio-qinghaiensis sp.-Q67)发光抑制为毒性指标,基于短期微板毒性分析法(S-MTA法),建立了长期微板毒性分析法(L-MTA法),测定了吡虫啉(IMI)、抗蚜威(PIR)、啶虫脒(ACE)及敌百虫(DIP)等4种杀虫剂与氯霉素(CHL)、盐酸四环素(TET)、硫酸链霉素(STR)及硫酸巴龙霉素(PAR)等4种抗生素的短期(15 min)毒性和长期(12 h)毒性.采用短期毒性与长期毒性EC₅₀之比(RSL)为指标,表征同一物质的毒性差异. 结果表明:3种杀虫剂(IMI,ACE及PIR)的短期毒性与长期毒性差异不大(其RSL分别为0.84,0.81和1.11);杀虫剂DIP和2个抗生素(CHL及TET)的短期毒性与长期毒性差异明显(其RSL分别为11.76,9.67及154.38);另2个抗生素(STR和PAR)只有较强的长期毒性.      

青岛及崇明岛食用鱼和鸭中共平面多氯联苯与多氯萘的研究

利用HRGC-HRMS测定了青岛海鱼和上海崇明岛淡水鱼、鸭样品中共平面多氯联苯(co-PCBs)和多氯萘(PCNs)(均以脂肪计)的质量分数,并根据每日摄取量可能带来的健康风险进行了初步探讨. 青岛海鱼中w(co-PCBs)和w(PCNs)平均值约为4 041和225 pg/g,崇明岛淡水鱼约为3 318和640 pg/g. 崇明岛鸭肉中w(co-PCBs)和w(PCNs)平均值分别约为966和43.8 pg/g. 青岛海鱼中PCNs同系物组成(以5-CNs和3-CNs为主)与崇明岛淡水鱼完全不同. 与国内外其他地区鱼和家禽相比,其污染物含量均较低. 所有样品中co-PCBs的毒性当量浓度(WHO-TEQ)为0.68～11.40 pg/g,PCNs的毒性当量浓度(WHO-TEQ)为0.001～0.210 pg/g. 根据当地人群的饮食习惯,两地人群co-PCBs和PCNs每日摄入量远低于WHO对普通人群规定的每日容许摄入量,因此不会对人群健康产生严重的负面效应.      

Arsenic and cadmium removal from water by a calcium-modified and starch-stabilized ferromanganese binary oxide

A new calcium-modified and starch-stabilized ferromanganese binary oxide (Ca-SFMBO) sorbent was fabricated with different Ca concentrations for the adsorption of arsenic (As) and cadmium (Cd) in water. The maximum As(III) and Cd(II) adsorption capacities of 1% Ca-SFMBO were 156.25 mg/g and 107.53 mg/g respectively in single-adsorption systems. The adsorption of As and Cd by the Ca-SFMBO sorbent was pH-dependent at values from 1 to 7, with an optimal adsorption pH of 6. In the dual-adsorbate system, the presence of Cd(II) at low concentrations enhanced As(III) adsorption by 33.3%, while the adsorption of As(III) was inhibited with the increase of Cd(II) concentration. Moreover, the addition of As(III) increased the adsorption capacity for Cd(II) up to two-fold. Through analysis by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), it was inferred that the mechanism for the co-adsorption of Cd(II) and As(III) included both competitive and synergistic effects, which resulted from the formation of ternary complexes. The results indicate that the Ca-SFMBO material developed here could be used for the simultaneous removal of As(III) and Cd(II) from contaminated water.     

铅、汞单一及联合胁迫对栅藻的生长、GSH含量及相关酶活性的影响

为进一步了解重金属复合污染对水生植物产生毒害作用的机制,以单细胞藻类生长及细胞内还原型谷胱甘肽（GSH）含量、谷胱甘肽-S-转移酶（GST）和谷胱甘肽过氧化物酶（GPx）活性为指标,对铅和汞单一及联合胁迫对四尾栅藻的毒性作用进行了研究.结果表明,铅［Pb(NO₃)₂］和汞(HgCl₂)单一胁迫对四尾栅藻生长抑制的96h EC₅₀分别为0.678 9　mg/L和0.140 1　mg/L,二者的联合作用相加指数AI为0.009,表现为典型的相加作用.经铅、汞单一及联合染毒12 h后,栅藻体内GSH含量降低到对照组的70％左右,并在一定浓度范围内保持水平上的稳定;GST活性随胁迫浓度的增加而先上升后下降,联合染毒高浓度组中甚至出现了明显的活性抑制,抑制率为13.04％;GPx活性整体受到明显抑制并随浓度增加而持续下降,最低值仅为对照组的38.77％.铅、汞联合胁迫对四尾栅藻体内GSH含量、GST及GPx活性的影响也验证了二者之间的联合作用关系为相加作用.     

次氯酸钠与亚铁对污泥破解及脱水效果的影响

采用次氯酸钠（NaClO）与亚铁（Fe（II））结合处理污泥以提高污泥破解和脱水效能,考察了NaClO和Fe（II）投加量的影响,并通过定量和定性分析污泥中胞外聚合物质（EPS）的迁移转化,确定NaClO和Fe（II）对污泥脱水和破解的机制.试验结果表明,NaClO和Fe（II）投加量（以干泥固体计）分别为44 mg·g^-1和66 mg·g^-1时,污泥毛细吸吮时间（CST）从原泥的112 s下降到66.3 s.同时,NaClO/Fe（II）处理污泥能够使上清液中化学需氧量（COD）显著升高,并使污泥中紧密束缚型EPS（TB-EPS）和松散束缚型EPS（LB-EPS）转化成溶解性EPS（S-EPS）,导致S-EPS的溶解性有机碳（DOC）含量升高,而LB-EPS和TB-EPS的DOC含量降低.此外,NaClO/Fe（II）还能使污泥中有机物质矿化,使3种EPS中蛋白质类和腐殖酸类物质减少.NaClO和Fe（II）能够改善污泥脱水性能,强化污泥破解效果,利于污泥后续的处理处置.     

全氟辛烷磺酰胺在小麦和蚯蚓中的富集与转化

研究了不同培养介质和培养方式下全氟辛烷磺酰胺(PFOSA)在小麦、蚯蚓体内的生物富集和转化.结果 表明:小麦根系可以从培养介质中吸收PFOSA并向上转运至茎叶.土壤中PFOSA生物有效性受总有机碳(TOC)的影响显著,高TOC含量土壤中PFOSA的生物有效性降低,导致其在小麦和蚯蚓中的生物富集因子分别由(61.24±8...     

Prevalence of Rotaviruses Groups A and C in Egyptian Children and Aquatic Environment

The objective of this study is to compare the prevalence of rotaviruses groups A and C in Egyptian children and aquatic environment. From 110 stool specimens of children with acute diarrhea and using RT-PCR, 35 samples (31.8 %) were positive for human rotavirus group A and 15 samples (13.6 %) were positive for human rotavirus group C. From 96 samples collected from Zenin wastewater treatment plant over a 2-year period (November 2009–October 2011) and using RT-PCR, rotavirus group A was detected in (4/24) 16.7 %, (5/24) 20.8 %, (4/24) 16.7 %, and (4/24) 16.7 %, while rotavirus group C was detected in (2/24) 8.3 %, (3/24) 12.5 %, (3/24) 12.5 %, and (0/24) 0 % in raw sewage, after primary sedimentation, after secondary sedimentation, and after final chlorination, respectively. Moreover, from 96 samples collected from El-Giza water treatment plant over a 2-year period (November 2009–October 2011), rotavirus group A was detected in (7/24) 29.2 %, (6/24) 25 %, (5/24) 20.8 %, and (3/24) 12.5 %, while rotavirus group C was detected in (3/24) 12.5 %, (1/24) 4.2 %, (1/24) 4.2 %, and (0/24) 0 % in raw Nile water, after sedimentation, after sand filtration, and after final chlorination, respectively. Using SYBR Green real-time RT-PCR, the number of human rotavirus group A genome or infectious units was higher than rotavirus group C. VP6 sequence analysis of the RT-PCR positive rotavirus group C samples revealed that four clinical specimens and three environmental samples showed similar sequences clustered with Moduganari/Human Nigerian strain AF 325806 with 98 % homology, and two clinical specimens and one environmental sample showed similar sequences clustered with Dhaka CB/Human Bangladesh strain AY 754826 with 97 % homology.     

Peri- and paracentric inversions in chromosome 12: Prenatal diagnosis and family study

Three different types of chromosome 12 inversion were seen in 15 individuals out of 44 individuals examined in one 8 generation family. Type 1: a pericentric inversion inv(12) (p112; q131) was found in 7 individuals and twice at prenatal diagnosis. Type 2: a paracentric inversion inv(12) (p123; p131) was seen in two individuals. Two individuals carried both inversion chromosomes, namely type 1 and type 2. The two inversion chromosomes were transmitted from each of the parents. Type 3: a double pericentric and paracentric inversion (type 3) inv(12) (p123; p131) (p112; q131) was observed in the daughter of one of the carriers of type 1 and 2 inversions and again at prenatal diagnosis in her son. The double inversion most likely arose through crossing-over in between the two inversion loops. A balanced translocation t(7; 13) and the inversion type 1 was observed in one individual, who transmitted the translocation only to an offspring. The frequency of inversions in amniotic fluid cells observed in our laboratory was 1·9 per cent. The clinical implications of these findings are discussed.     

近平衡状态海水中方解石溶解-沉淀速率及动力学研究

本文利用free-drift开放反应系统,在恒压力(1atm)、恒温度(25.0±0.2℃)环境下,研究海水中近溶解、沉淀平衡状态时二氧化碳分压(pCO2)的变化对方解石溶解、沉淀速率及其动力学方程的影响。研究结果表明:溶解速率相对于碳酸盐碱度(Ac)或饱和度(Ω)变化的敏感度要高于沉淀速率;Ac或Ω相同时,pCO2越高,溶解速率越高,而沉淀速率越低;方解石的溶解过程可分为pCO2欠平衡、平衡两个阶段,当Ω>0.8时反应液pCO2平衡,方解石的溶解反应级数介于8～9之间;沉淀反应级数介于2.4～2.6之间,且反应液pCO2的改变对沉淀反应级数的影响不明显。     

Formation of regulated and unregulated disinfection byproducts during chlorination and chloramination: Roles of dissolved organic matter type, bromide, and iodide

Algal blooms and wastewater effluents can introduce algal organic matter (AOM) and effluent organic matter (EfOM) into surface waters, respectively. In this study, the impact of bromide and iodide on the formation of halogenated disinfection byproducts (DBPs) during chlorination and chloramination from various types of dissolved organic matter (DOM, e.g., natural organic matter (NOM), AOM, and EfOM) were investigated based on the data collected from literature. In general, higher formation of trihalomethanes (THMs) and haloacetic acids (HAAs) was observed in NOM than AOM and EfOM, indicating high reactivities of phenolic moieties with both chlorine and monochloramine. The formation of haloacetaldehydes (HALs), haloacetonitriles (HANs) and haloacetamides (HAMs) was much lower than THMs and HAAs. Increasing initial bromide concentrations increased the formation of THMs, HAAs, HANs, and HAMs, but not HALs. Bromine substitution factor (BSF) values of DBPs formed in chlorination decreased as specific ultraviolet absorbance (SUVA) increased. AOM favored the formation of iodinated THMs (I-THMs) during chloramination using preformed chloramines and chlorination-chloramination processes. Increasing prechlorination time can reduce the I-THM concentrations because of the conversion of iodide to iodate, but this increased the formation of chlorinated and brominated DBPs. In an analogous way, iodine substitution factor (ISF) values of I-THMs formed in chloramination decreased as SUVA values of DOM increased. Compared to chlorination, the formation of noniodinated DBPs is low in chloramination.     

济南市秋末冬初大气颗粒物和气体污染物污染水平及来源

2009年11月23日─12月7日在济南市区对PM2.5、BC(黑碳)和污染物(SO2、NOx、NO、NO2和CO)进行实时监测与分析.观测期间ρ(PM2.5)、φ(SO2)和φ(NOx)分别为171μg/m3、54.3×10-9和107×10-9.其中,φ(SO2)与GB 3095─1996《环境空气质量标准》日标准值相当,φ(NOx)是标准的2.2倍,ρ(PM2.5)是美国环境空气质量标准(35μg/m3)的4.89倍.污染事件期间ρ(PM2.5)、φ(SO2)和φ(NOx)分别达到222μg/m3、74.4×10-9和158×10-9,是非污染期间的1.78、1.67和1.77倍.观测期间SO2主要来源于燃煤排放.在11月25─26日的污染事件中,NOx、BC和PM2.5主要来源于机动车尾气排放,除局地源外,东北风经过济南东北部工业区时也将污染物传输到采样点;而在12月1─2日的污染事件中,以静风为主,污染物积聚,NOx和BC主要来源于机动车尾气排放,PM2.5除了一次污染物,很可能包含一定比例的二次污染物.在非污染事件中,NOx和BC主要来源于机动车尾气排放,部分NOx很可能来源于燃煤排放,而PM2.5主要来源于一次源排放.     

岩土工程与环境

本文讨论了岩土工程与环境的关系。首先从工业废料的利用、废弃物的填埋和防治自然灾害３个方面论述了如何用岩土工程学的方法保护环境,接着从４个方面论述了岩土工程对环境的不良影响：①岩土工程引起周围建筑物的变形;②岩土工程引起的振动;③岩土工程引起的噪音;④岩土工程中的化学污染。同时提出了减小这些不良影响的措施。最后讨论了环境对岩土工程活动的制约作用。     

菲在渤海湾入海河流与河口沉积物上的吸附-解吸行为

采用批量实验方法,研究了菲(Phe)在渤海湾入海河流与河口沉积物上的吸附-解吸过程,以及吸附参数与沉积物有机质性质之间的相关关系.结果表明,Phe在所有沉积物上的吸附和解吸等温线均能由线性分配模型和Freundlich模型很好地拟合.其中,线性分配系数KD值变化在58～743L·kg-1之间,与TOC、TN、DOC、Phe、C/N和DOC/TOC之间呈现显著正相关关系.Freundlich吸附能力参数KF和KFOC值分别在75～367μg1-N·kg-1·LN和2253～34743μg1-N·kg-1·LN之间,均与DOC/TOC呈现显著负相关关系,而与其它有机质参数之间相关性不显著.相比较而言,大多数沉积物的解吸等温线用Freundlich模型拟合的效果更好,并且具有明显的解吸滞后现象.有机质的含量和性质均是影响Phe在沉积物上吸附-解吸的重要因素.对于频繁受到人类活动影响的河流沉积物,溶解性有机质的影响就更为重要.     

枯水季和丰水季长江口海域生源硫的浓度变化特征及影响因素

为深入研究河口近岸海域DMS（二甲基硫）的生物地球化学过程,于2014年2月（枯水季）和7月（丰水季）对长江口及附近海域表层海水中DMS及其前体物质DMSP（二甲巯基丙酸内盐）的浓度分布及影响因素进行了研究,测定了DMSPd（溶解态DMSP）的降解速率和DMS的生物生产与微生物消费速率,并估算了DMS的海-气通量.结果表明:①枯水季和丰水季c（DMS）、c（DMSPd）、c（DMSPp）（DMSPp为颗粒态DMSP）的平均值±标准偏差分别为（0.54±0.28）（2.04±1.32）（6.65±5.07）和（3.99±3.70）（5.57±4.72）（14.26±9.17）nmol/L,长江口海域丰水季生源硫化物的浓度明显高于枯水季.②枯水季和丰水季c（DMSPd）与ρ（Chla）均呈弱相关,说明浮游植物在控制长江口海域DMSP的生产分布中发挥重要作用.③枯水季和丰水季c（DMS）/ρ（Chla）的平均值±标准偏差分别为（2.62±3.28）和（4.60±7.49）mmol/g,表明丰水季DMS的高产藻种（甲藻）在浮游植物生物量中所占比例高于枯水季.④枯水季表层海水中DMSPd的降解速率和DMS的生物生产速率分别介于（2.84~30.53）和（0.52~2.19）nmol/（L·d）之间,平均值分别为14.55和1.30 nmol/（L·d）,表明DMS并不是DMSPd的主要降解产物.⑤枯水季和丰水季DMS的海-气通量平均值±标准偏差分别为（0.36±0.32）和（2.17±2.98）μmol/（m2·d）,而且丰水季的硫排放量明显高于枯水季,这主要与夏季较高的c（DMS）有关.研究显示,长江口海域生源硫化物的浓度变化及分布特征呈明显的季节性差异,河口近岸海域是海洋有机硫排放的重要区域.      

巢湖十五里河沉积物生物有效性氮磷分布及相关性

在巢湖十五里河采集15个沉积物柱样,对表层(0～10 cm)沉积物生物有效性氮、磷含量和空间分布特征及相互关系进行研究. 结果表明,十五里河表层沉积物的各形态〔IEF(离子交换态),WAEF(弱酸可提取态),SAEF(强碱可提取态)和SOEF(强氧化剂可提取态)〕生物有效性氮、磷含量存在较为明显的空间变化性. w(生物有效性氮)占w(TN)的53.4%～67.9%,且w(SOEF-N)＞w(IEF-N)＞w(SAEF-N)＞w(WAEF-N),其中w(SOEF-N)为411.35～965.47 mg/kg,占w(TN)的33.4%～43.7%;w(生物有效性磷)占w(TP)的47.3%～89.4%,且w(SAEF-P)＞w(SOEF-P)＞w(WAEF-P)＞w(IEF-P),其中w(SAEF-P)为311.74～960.33 mg/kg,占w(TP)的33.0%～78.0%. 不同形态生物有效性氮的相关性较差,其中w(IEF-N)与w(WAEF-N)和w(SAEF-N)呈负相关,相关系数分别为-0.042和-0.122;w(WAEF-N)和w(SAEF-N)和w(SOEF-N)的相关系数仅为0.320～0.513. 生物有效性磷的相关性相对较强,其中w(IEF-P)与w(WAEF-P)呈显著正相关,相关系数为0.527,w(WAEF-P)与w(SAEF-P)呈极显著正相关,相关系数为0.653. 不同形态生物有效性氮、磷的相关性不显著.      

大黑汀水库夏秋季节温室气体赋存及排放特征

以北方典型富营养化水库-大黑汀水库水体为研究对象,在2018年夏季和秋季采用顶空平衡法对其表层35个点位水体溶解的二氧化碳（CO₂）、甲烷（CH₄）和氧化亚氮（N₂O）浓度进行测定,并对水库水-气界面扩散通量进行了估算.结果表明夏季和秋季大黑汀水库表层水体的CO₂、CH₄和N₂O整体上均表现为过饱和状态,夏季表层水体CO₂溶存浓度和扩散通量均值分别为（72.75±67.49）μmol/L和（810.62±790.64）μmol/（m²·h）;秋季CO₂溶存浓度和扩散通量均值分别为（394.64±104.13）μmol/L和（4822.81±1250.00）μmol/（m²·h）;夏季CH₄平均浓度和扩散通量分别为（0.19±0.12）μmol/L和（3.04±2.10）μmol/（m²·h）,秋季CH₄平均浓度和扩散通量分别为（0.41±0.26）μmol/L和（5.16±3.23）μmol/（m²·h）;夏季N₂O溶存浓度和扩散通量均值分别为（0.03±0.01）μmol/L和（0.31±0.10）μmol/（m²·h）,秋季N₂O溶存浓度和扩散通量均值分别为（0.03±0.01）μmol/L和（0.25±0.15）μmol/（m²·h）.相关性分析结果表明大黑汀水库夏季表层水体CO₂及N₂O浓度主要受水温、水深和电导率影响,CH₄浓度主要受水深及电导率影响;水库秋季表层水体CO₂溶存浓度主要受水温、水深和TDS影响,CH₄浓度主要受水温、水深和TDS影响,N₂O浓度主要受水深影响.     

夏、秋季北黄海营养盐的时空分布特征及其影响机制

基于2011年7月(夏季)和2011年10月(秋季)北黄海海域2个航次的调查资料,对北黄海夏、秋季营养盐的时空分布特征及其影响机制进行了探讨.结果表明,夏、秋季北黄海营养盐的平均浓度分别为:NO3- (1.57±1.71), (5.93±3.84) μmol/L,NO2- (0.22±0.18), (0.88±0.93) μmol/L,PO43- (0.22±0.13), (0.40±0.23) μmol/L,Si(OH)4 (4.98±2.23), (6.71±3.24) μmol/L,NH4+ (1.35±0.90), (1.23±0.69) μmol/L,夏、秋季北黄海NO3-分别占溶解无机氮的49%和74%.2个季节近岸海域表层营养盐浓度均高于中部海域,底层浓度高于表层,高值区是冷水团区.各断面营养盐的垂直分布层化现象明显,受冷水团以及水体交换混合的共同影响,浓度由表至底逐渐升高.夏、秋季表底层N/P、Si/N和Si/P比值的水平分布为近岸海域高于中部海域,且夏季北黄海浮游植物的生长繁殖受磷限制.     

Comparing systems approaches to innovation and technological change for sustainable and competitive economies: an explorative study into conceptual commonalities,differences and complementarities

This paper makes a distinction between three theoretical frameworks that have been highly influential in the discourse on innovation, competitiveness and sustainability: sectoral systems of innovation (SSI), technological innovation systems (TIS) and socio-technical systems (ST-Systems). These frameworks share a common systems approach to innovation but are often positioned as different bodies of literature that correspond to different epistemic communities. This paper is explorative and conceptual in nature. It presents a systematic comparative review of SSI, TIS and ST-Systems based on the following analytical dimensions: (1) system boundaries, (2) actors and networks, (3) institutions, (4) knowledge, (5) dynamics and (6) policy approach. In the concluding section commonalities and differences, of the three approaches, are presented and suggestions for complimentarily are made.     

巢湖周边表土中有机质、全氮和全磷空间分布及其相关性

测定了巢湖周边3 528 km2范围内60个混合土样中的有机质(organic matter,OM)、全氮(total nitrogen,TN)和全磷(total phosphorus,TP)含量,通过GS 7.0+地统计学分析软件、Surfer 8.0及Mapinfo 8.5软件研究了这3种营养盐的空间分布,并使用SPSS 17.0软件对各指标间的相关性进行了分析.结果表明:①巢湖周边表土中ω(OM)、ω(TN)和ω(TP)平均值依次为19 500、1 027和483 mg.kg-1,东巢湖表土中ω(OM)和ω(TN)均值高于西巢湖,而磷矿的存在导致了ω(TP)均值西高东低;②位于巢湖西南的杭埠-丰乐河和白石天河周边表土中(TP)本底值较高,且水土流失十分严重,巢湖面源污染管理必须高度重视该两河的TP控制;③在线性模型下,巢湖周边表土中ω(OM)、ω(TN)和ω(TP)的块金值/基台值依次为0.015、0.202和0.128.巢湖周边表土中ω(OM)、ω(TN)和ω(TP)具有极强的空间自相关性,三者Pearson检验为两两显著相关,巢湖周边表土中ω(TN)和ω(TP)可由ω(OM)通过文中所得的公式估算,精度能满足日常管理需要.