High Arctic ecosystem states: Conceptual models of vegetation change to guide long-term monitoring and research

Vegetation change has consequences for terrestrial ecosystem structure and functioning and may involve climate feedbacks. Hence, when monitoring ecosystem states and changes thereof, the vegetation is often a primary monitoring target. Here, we summarize current understanding of vegetation change in the High Arctic—the World’s most rapidly warming region—in the context of ecosystem monitoring. To foster development of deployable monitoring strategies, we categorize different kinds of drivers (disturbances or stresses) of vegetation change either as pulse (i.e. drivers that occur as sudden and short events, though their effects may be long lasting) or press (i.e. drivers where change in conditions remains in place for a prolonged period, or slowly increases in pressure). To account for the great heterogeneity in vegetation responses to climate change and other drivers, we stress the need for increased use of ecosystem-specific conceptual models to guide monitoring and ecological studies in the Arctic. We discuss a conceptual model with three hypothesized alternative vegetation states characterized by mosses, herbaceous plants, and bare ground patches, respectively. We use moss-graminoid tundra of Svalbard as a case study to discuss the documented and potential impacts of different drivers on the possible transitions between those states. Our current understanding points to likely additive effects of herbivores and a warming climate, driving this ecosystem from a moss-dominated state with cool soils, shallow active layer and slow nutrient cycling to an ecosystem with warmer soil, deeper permafrost thaw, and faster nutrient cycling. Herbaceous-dominated vegetation and (patchy) bare ground would present two states in response to those drivers. Conceptual models are an operational tool to focus monitoring efforts towards management needs and identify the most pressing scientific questions. We promote greater use of conceptual models in conjunction with a state-and-transition framework in monitoring to ensure fit for purpose approaches. Defined expectations of the focal systems’ responses to different drivers also facilitate linking local and regional monitoring efforts to international initiatives, such as the Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Program.     

Status and trends of tundra birds across the circumpolar Arctic

Tundra-breeding birds face diverse conservation challenges, from accelerated rates of Arctic climate change to threats associated with highly migratory life histories. Here we summarise the status and trends of Arctic terrestrial birds (88 species, 228 subspecies or distinct flyway populations) across guilds/regions, derived from published sources, raw data or, in rare cases, expert opinion. We report long-term trends in vital rates (survival, reproduction) for the handful of species and regions for which these are available. Over half of all circumpolar Arctic wader taxa are declining (51% of 91 taxa with known trends) and almost half of all waterfowl are increasing (49% of 61 taxa); these opposing trends have fostered a shift in community composition in some locations. Declines were least prevalent in the African-Eurasian Flyway (29%), but similarly prevalent in the remaining three global flyways (44–54%). Widespread, and in some cases accelerating, declines underscore the urgent conservation needs faced by many Arctic terrestrial bird species.     

Status and trends of terrestrial arthropod abundance and diversity in the North Atlantic region of the Arctic

Ambio - The Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Programme (CBMP) provides an opportunity to improve our knowledge of Arctic arthropod diversity, but initial baseline studies are required to...     

Circumpolar status of Arctic ptarmigan: Population dynamics and trends

Rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta) and willow ptarmigan (L. lagopus) are Arctic birds with a circumpolar distribution but there is limited knowledge about their status and trends across their circumpolar distribution. Here, we compiled information from 90 ptarmigan study sites from 7 Arctic countries, where almost half of the sites are still monitored. Rock ptarmigan showed an overall negative trend on Iceland and Greenland, while Svalbard and Newfoundland had positive trends, and no significant trends in Alaska. For willow ptarmigan, there was a negative trend in mid-Sweden and eastern Russia, while northern Fennoscandia, North America and Newfoundland had no significant trends. Both species displayed some periods with population cycles (short 3–6 years and long 9–12 years), but cyclicity changed through time for both species. We propose that simple, cost-efficient systematic surveys that capture the main feature of ptarmigan population dynamics can form the basis for citizen science efforts in order to fill knowledge gaps for the many regions that lack systematic ptarmigan monitoring programs.

     

Polychlorinated organic compounds in the Arctic cod liver: trends and profiles

Polychlorinated organic compounds (POCs) have been measured in Arctic cod liver from Vestertana Fjord for a period of 1987-1998. Significant decrease was observed for DDD (p = 0.043), alpha-HCH (p = 0.001), and gamma-HCH (lindane; p = 0.001). Contents of DDE, 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzofuran, PCBs, chlordanes, chloronaphthalenes, hexachlorobenzene and polychlorodiphenyl ethers had no significant trend. Contents of three hexa- and two heptachlorodibenzofurans and octachlorodibenzofuran increased slightly from 1987 to 1994, but then at very high rate from 1994 to 1998. Trends of HCHs, profiles of PCBs and levels of chlordanes are in accordance with atmospheric long range transport. The hexa-, hepta- and octachlorodibenzofurans observed are major impurities in chlorophenol formulation Ky-5, which has been used as wood preservative and as fungicide/slimicide in industrial processes. Their profile in Vestertana cod was similar to that observed in Ky-5 contaminated fish.     

Levels and trends of brominated flame retardants in the Arctic

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) containing two to seven bromines are ubiquitous in Arctic biotic and abiotic samples (from zooplankton to polar bears (Ursus maritimus) and humans; air, soil, sediments). The fully brominated decabromodiphenyl ether (BDE-209), hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD), tetrabromobisphenol A (TBBPA) and polybrominated biphenyls (PBBs) are also present in biotic and abiotic samples. Spatial trends of PBDEs and HBCD in top predators are similar to those seen for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and indicate western Europe and eastern North America as source regions. Concentrations of tetra- to heptaBDEs have increased significantly in North American and Greenlandic Arctic biota and in Greenland freshwater sediments paralleling trends seen further south. For BDE-209, increasing concentrations in Greenlandic peregrine falcons (Falco peregrinus) and in dated lake sediment cores in the Canadian Arctic have been seen during the 1990s. BDE-47, -99, -100 and -153 are observed to biomagnify in Arctic food webs. summation operatorPBDE concentrations in Arctic samples are lower than in similar sample types from more southerly regions and are one or more orders of magnitude lower than summation operatorPCB concentrations except for some levels for air. Air and harbor sediment results for PBDEs indicate that there are local sources near highly populated areas within the Arctic. Findings of PBBs on moss and TBBPA on an air filter, and that both are found in biota at high trophic levels indicates that these compounds may also reach the Arctic by long-range atmospheric transport. Based on the evidence of their presence in the Arctic and indications that most if not all are undergoing long-range transport, these brominated flame retardants (BFRs) have characteristics that qualify them as POPs according to the Stockholm Convention.     

Seasonal and long-term trends in atmospheric PAH concentrations: evidence and implications

Atmospheric monitoring data for selected polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were compiled from remote, rural and urban locations in the UK, Sweden, Finland and Arctic Canada. The objective was to examine the seasonal and temporal trends, to shed light on the factors which exert a dominant influence over ambient PAH levels. Urban centres in the UK have concentrations 1-2 orders of magnitude higher than in rural Europe and up to 3 orders of magnitude higher than Arctic Canada. Interpretation of the data suggests that proximity to primary sources 'drives' PAH air concentrations. Seasonality, with winter (W) > summer (S), was apparent for most compounds at most sites; high molecular weight compounds (e.g. benzo[a]pyrene) showed this most clearly and consistently. Some low molecular weight compounds (e.g. phenanthrene) sometimes displayed S>W seasonality at some rural locations. Strong W>S seasonality is linked to seasonally-dependent sources which are greater in winter. This implicates inefficient combustion processes, notably the diffusive domestic burning of wood and coal. However, sometimes seasonality can also be strongly influenced by broad changes in meteorology and air mass origin (e.g. in the Canadian Arctic). The datasets examined here suggest a downward trend for many PAHs at some sites, but this is not apparent for all sites and compounds. The inherent noise in ambient air monitoring data makes it difficult to derive unambiguous evidence of underlying declines, to confirm the effectiveness of international source reduction measures.     

Arctic terrestrial biodiversity status and trends: A synopsis of science supporting the CBMP State of Arctic Terrestrial Biodiversity Report

Ambio - This review provides a synopsis of the main findings of individual papers in the special issue Terrestrial Biodiversity in a Rapidly Changing Arctic. The special issue was developed to...     

Temporal trends of organochlorines and mercury in seabird eggs from the Canadian Arctic, 1975-2003

Organochlorine pesticides, PCBs, total mercury and selenium were measured in eggs of thick-billed murres, northern fulmars and black-legged kittiwakes collected from Prince Leopold Island in the Canadian High Arctic between 1975 and 2003. The primary organochlorines found were SigmaPCB, p,p'-DDE, oxychlordane, and hexachlorobenzene (HCB). Most of organochlorines analyzed showed either significant declines or no significant change between 1975 and 2003 in all three species. However, significant increases were observed for SigmaHCH in the kittiwakes and fulmars, and beta-HCH in the murres and fulmars. Mercury increased significantly in eggs of murres and fulmars, whereas mercury in the kittiwakes did not change significantly over the study period. Statistical analyses included stable-nitrogen isotope ratios (delta(15)N) to control for any variation in trophic level over time. Although the contaminant concentrations reported in this study are below published threshold values, mercury and beta-HCH concentrations continue to increase suggesting that continued monitoring is warranted.     

Past and future trends in concentrations of sulphur and nitrogen compounds in the Arctic

Recent trends in nitrogen and sulphur compounds in air and precipitation from a range of Arctic monitoring stations are presented, with seasonal data from the late 70s to 2004 or 2005. Earlier findings of declining sulphur concentrations are confirmed for most stations, while the pattern is less clear for reduced and oxidized nitrogen. In fact there are positive trends for nitrogen compounds in air at several stations. Acidity is generally reduced at many stations while the precipitation amount is either increasing or stable. Variability of sulphate concentrations in air for the period 1991–2000 is reasonably well reproduced at most stations using an Eulerian, hemispherical model. Results for nitrogen compounds are weaker. Scenario studies show that even if large sulphur emission reductions take place in important source regions in South-East Asia in the coming decades, only small changes in Arctic deposition can be expected. This is because South-East Asian emissions have small influence north of the Arctic circle.     

Ecosystem responses to climate change at a Low Arctic and a High Arctic long-term research site

Long-term measurements of ecological effects of warming are often not statistically significant because of annual variability or signal noise. These are reduced in indicators that filter or reduce the noise around the signal and allow effects of climate warming to emerge. In this way, certain indicators act as medium pass filters integrating the signal over years-to-decades. In the Alaskan Arctic, the 25-year record of warming of air temperature revealed no significant trend, yet environmental and ecological changes prove that warming is affecting the ecosystem. The useful indicators are deep permafrost temperatures, vegetation and shrub biomass, satellite measures of canopy reflectance (NDVI), and chemical measures of soil weathering. In contrast, the 18-year record in the Greenland Arctic revealed an extremely high summer air-warming of 1.3 °C/decade; the cover of some plant species increased while the cover of others decreased. Useful indicators of change are NDVI and the active layer thickness.     

The aerosol at Barrow,Alaska: long-term trends and source locations

Aerosol data consisting of condensation nuclei (CN) counts, black carbon (BC) mass, aerosol light scattering (SC), and aerosol optical depth (AOD) measured at Barrow, Alaska from 1977 to 1994 have been analyzed by three-way positive matrix factorization (PMF3) by pooling all of the different data into one large three-way array. The PMF3 analysis identified four factors that indicate four different combinations of aerosol sources active throughout the year in Alaska. Two of the factors (F1, F2) represent Arctic haze. The first Arctic haze have factor F1 is dominant in January–February while the second factor F2 is dominant in March–April. They appear to be material that is generally ascribed to long-range transported anthropogenic particles. A lower ratio of condensation nuclei to scattering coefficient loadings is obtained for F2 indicating larger particles. Factor F3 is related to condensation nuclei. It has an annual cycle with two maxima, March and July–August indicating some involvement of marine biogenic sources. The fourth factor F4 represents the contribution to the stratospheric aerosol from the eruptions of El Chichon and Mt. Pinatubo. No significant long-term trend for F1 was detected while F2 shows a negative trend over the period from 1982 to 1994 but not over the whole measurement period. A positive trend of F3 over the whole period has been observed. This trend may be related to increased biogenic sulfur production caused by reductions in the sea-ice cover in the Arctic and/or an air temperature increase in the vicinity of Barrow. Potential source contribution function (PSCF) analysis showed that in winter and spring during 1989 to 1993 regions in Eurasia and North America are the sources of particles measured at barrow. In contrast to this, large areas in the North Pacific Ocean and the Arctic Ocean was contributed to observed high concentrations of CN in the summer season. Three-way positive matrix factorization was an effective method to extract time-series information contained in the measured quantities. PSCF was useful for the identification possible source areas and the potential pathways for the Barrow aerosol. The effects of long-distance transport, photochemical aerosol production, emissions from biogenic activities in the ocean, volcanic eruptions on the aerosol measurements made at Barrow were extracted using this combined methodology.     

Contaminant residues in seabird eggs from the Canadian Arctic. II. Spatial trends and evidence from stable isotopes for intercolony differences

Eggs of glaucous gulls (Larus hyperboreus), black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla), thick-billed murres (Uria lomvia) and black guillemots (Cepphus grylle) were collected from several sites throughout the Canadian Arctic. Samples were analyzed for organochlorines as well as mercury and selenium. Glaucous gulls breeding at sites in the High Arctic showed higher levels of organochlorine contamination than those in the western Low Arctic. This was likely due to dietary differences among colonies as suggested by stable isotope data, although different overwintering areas may also play a role. Levels of sigmaPCB, sigmaDDT, sigmaCHLOR, sigmaCBz and dieldrin were significantly lower in thick-billed murres from Prince Leopold Island in the High Arctic compared with colonies in the eastcrn Low Arctic. This difference was likely due to the combined effects of different atmospheric deposition patterns in the High and Low Arctic and different overwintering areas since murres from Prince Leopold Island may winter farther north than murres from the other colonies sampled. Eggs from colonies at higher latitudes generally contained higher concentrations of mercury. The trophic and dietary differences/similarities suggested by stable-nitrogen and carbon isotope data in this study were useful in explaining the spatial patterns of contaminant concentrations observed among colonies of seabirds such as the glaucous gull and the black-legged kittiwake where variation in latitudinal atmospheric deposition patterns and different overwintering grounds did not appear to be confounding factors.     

Effects on the structure of Arctic ecosystems in the short- and long-term perspectives

Species individualistic responses to warming and increased UV-B radiation are moderated by the responses of neighbors within communities, and trophic interactions within ecosystems. All of these responses lead to changes in ecosystem structure. Experimental manipulation of environmental factors expected to change at high latitudes showed that summer warming of tundra vegetation has generally led to smaller changes than fertilizer addition. Some of the factors manipulated have strong effects on the structure of Arctic ecosystems but the effects vary regionally, with the greatest response of plant and invertebrate communities being observed at the coldest locations. Arctic invertebrate communities are very likely to respond rapidly to warming whereas microbial biomass and nutrient stocks are more stable. Experimentally enhanced UV-B radiation altered the community composition of gram-negative bacteria and fungi, but not that of plants. Increased plant productivity due to warmer summers may dominate food-web dynamics. Trophic interactions of tundra and sub-Arctic forest plant-based food webs are centered on a few dominant animal species which often have cyclic population fluctuations that lead to extremely high peak abundances in some years. Population cycles of small rodents and insect defoliators such as the autumn moth affect the structure and diversity of tundra and forest-tundra vegetation and the viability of a number of specialist predators and parasites. Ice crusting in warmer winters is likely to reduce the accessibility of plant food to lemmings, while deep snow may protect them from snow-surface predators. In Fennoscandia, there is evidence already for a pronounced shift in small rodent community structure and dynamics that have resulted in a decline of predators that specialize in feeding on small rodents. Climate is also likely to alter the role of insect pests in the birch forest system: warmer winters may increase survival of eggs and expand the range of the insects. Insects that harass reindeer in the summer are also likely to become more widespread, abundant and active during warmer summers while refuges for reindeer/caribou on glaciers and late snow patches will probably disappear.     

Effects on the function of Arctic ecosystems in the short- and long-term perspectives

Historically, the function of Arctic ecosystems in terms of cycles of nutrients and carbon has led to low levels of primary production and exchanges of energy, water and greenhouse gases have led to low local and regional cooling. Sequestration of carbon from atmospheric CO2, in extensive, cold organic soils and the high albedo from low, snow-covered vegetation have had impacts on regional climate. However, many aspects of the functioning of Arctic ecosystems are sensitive to changes in climate and its impacts on biodiversity. The current Arctic climate results in slow rates of organic matter decomposition. Arctic ecosystems therefore tend to accumulate organic matter and elements despite low inputs. As a result, soil-available elements like nitrogen and phosphorus are key limitations to increases in carbon fixation and further biomass and organic matter accumulation. Climate warming is expected to increase carbon and element turnover, particularly in soils, which may lead to initial losses of elements but eventual, slow recovery. Individual species and species diversity have clear impacts on element inputs and retention in Arctic ecosystems. Effects of increased CO2 and UV-B on whole ecosystems, on the other hand, are likely to be small although effects on plant tissue chemisty, decomposition and nitrogen fixation may become important in the long-term. Cycling of carbon in trace gas form is mainly as CO2 and CH4. Most carbon loss is in the form of CO2, produced by both plants and soil biota. Carbon emissions as methane from wet and moist tundra ecosystems are about 5% of emissions as CO2 and are responsive to warming in the absence of any other changes. Winter processes and vegetation type also affect CH4 emissions as well as exchanges of energy between biosphere and atmosphere. Arctic ecosystems exhibit the largest seasonal changes in energy exchange of any terrestrial ecosystem because of the large changes in albedo from late winter, when snow reflects most incoming radiation, to summer when the ecosystem absorbs most incoming radiation. Vegetation profoundly influences the water and energy exchange of Arctic ecosystems. Albedo during the period of snow cover declines from tundra to forest tundra to deciduous forest to evergreen forest. Shrubs and trees increase snow depth which in turn increases winter soil temperatures. Future changes in vegetation driven by climate change are therefore, very likely to profoundly alter regional climate.     

The use of autecological and environmental parameters for establishing the status of lichen vegetation in a baseline study for a long-term monitoring survey

In 1997 the ecological characteristics of the epiphytic species (83 lichens and two algae) of an urban area (Grenoble, France) were determined. Seven autecological indices were used to characterize the lichen ecology: illumination index, humidity index, pH of bark, nutrient status of substratum, ecological index of IAP and frequency. Six clusters (A1-A6) were defined using cluster analysis and principal component analysis. Seven environmental parameters characterizing the stations and the lichen releves were also used: elevation, parameters of artificiality (urbanization, traffic and local land use), IAP, and the percentage of nitrophytic and acidophytic species. Six clusters (B1-B6) were defined using cluster analysis and canonical correspondence analysis. Four clusters (C1-C4) were finally defined using an empirical integrated method combining the autecological and environmental parameters. This final clustering which established the status of the lichen vegetation in 1997 can be reliably used as a baseline study to effectively monitor environmental changes in this urban area.     

Cadmium in cereal grain and herbage from long-term experimental plots at Rothamsted, UK

Crop samples harvested and stored from three long-term agricultural experiments started in the 1840-1850s at Rothamsted Experimental Station (UK) have been analysed recently for Cd. Increased Cd burden in the soils of the experiments, which have had a range of treatments, originates mainly from atmospheric deposition. Soils treated with farmyard manure (FYM) or, in some cases, applications of phosphate fertilisers, have increased Cd levels. Herbage, wheat and barley grain from the three experiments were analysed by neutron activation analysis (NAA) and graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry (GFAAS). Samples were bulked for groups of years between 1860 and 1986, from variously treated plots in each experiment (control or 'nil' treatment, P-fertilised, FYM-amended, NPK-fertilised-limed and unlimed). There were marked differences in Cd concentrations between treatments. For example, uptake of Cd into herbage was greater where P fertiliser had been applied than not, and was greater from unlimed than limed soils. Offtake of Cd (mg ha(-1) year(-1)) was affected by large differences in yield and probably also by other factors. These include changes in botanical composition in the permanent grassland experiment; cultivar changes in the wheat and barley experiments; changes in soil organic matter and soil pH of some plots; changes in atmospheric deposition of Cd through time. All of these potentially confounding factors make the interpretation of results complicated. It is concluded, however, that, with one exception, there is little evidence of a long-term increase in crop Cd concentrations at Rothamsted.     

Correction to: Status and trends of circumpolar peregrine falcon and gyrfalcon populations

While collating contributions and comments from 36 researchers, the coordinating authors accidentally omitted Dr. Suzanne Carrière from the list of contributing co-authors. Dr. Carrière’s data are described in Tables 1 and 3, Figure 2 and several places in the narrative. The new author list is thus updated in this article.     

Contaminant residues in seabird eggs from the Canadian Arctic. Part I. Temporal trends 1975-1998.

Concentrations of total mercury, selenium and a suite of organochlorine compounds were measured in eggs of thick-billed murres (Uria lomvia), northern fulmars (Fulmarus glacialis) and black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) collected on Prince Leopold Island in Lancaster Sound, Nunavut, Canada, between 1975 and 1998. Mercury levels in thick-billed murre and northern fulmar eggs increased significantly during this period while selenium concentrations decreased significantly in northern fulmar eggs. Mercury and selenium concentrations in black-legged kittiwake eggs exhibited no significant temporal trends. Concentrations of sigma PCB, sigma DDT and total chlorobenzenes decreased over time for all three species and there was a shift in the PCB congener pattern as the hexachlorobiphenyl fraction of sigma PCB increased and the lower chlorinated biphenyl fraction decreased. Total chlordane, dieldrin and mirex concentrations decreased in kittiwake eggs while no significant trends were observed for the other two species. Increases in sigma HCH levels were detected in thick-billed murre eggs but not in northern fulmar and black-legged kittiwake eggs. Levels of the beta-HCH isomer, however, increased significantly in murres and fulmars. Stable-nitrogen isotope analyses (delta 15N) indicate that the temporal trends observed for contaminant concentrations in eggs were not the result of shifts in trophic level. Changing deposition patterns of xenobiotic compounds over the summer and winter ranges of these birds provide a likely explanation for differing exposures through time.