The importance of agricultural lands for Himalayan birds in winter

The impacts of land‐use change on biodiversity in the Himalayas are poorly known, notwithstanding widespread deforestation and agricultural intensification in this highly biodiverse region. Although intact primary forests harbor many Himalayan birds during breeding, a large number of bird species use agricultural lands during winter. We assessed how Himalayan bird species richness, abundance, and composition during winter are affected by forest loss stemming from agriculture and grazing. Bird surveys along 12 elevational transects within primary forest, low‐intensity agriculture, mixed subsistence agriculture, and intensively grazed pastures in winter revealed that bird species richness and abundance were greatest in low‐intensity and mixed agriculture, intermediate in grazed pastures, and lowest in primary forest at both local and landscape scales; over twice as many species and individuals were recorded in low‐intensity agriculture than in primary forest. Bird communities in primary forests were distinct from those in all other land‐use classes, but only 4 species were unique to primary forests. Low‐, medium‐, and high‐intensity agriculture harbored 32 unique species. Of the species observed in primary forest, 80% had equal or greater abundance in low‐intensity agricultural lands, underscoring the value of these lands in retaining diverse community assemblages at high densities in winter. Among disturbed landscapes, bird species richness and abundance declined as land‐use intensity increased, especially in high‐intensity pastures. Our results suggest that agricultural landscapes are important for most Himalayan bird species in winter. But agricultural intensification—especially increased grazing—will likely result in biodiversity losses. Given that forest reserves alone may inadequately conserve Himalayan birds in winter, comprehensive conservation strategies in the region must go beyond protecting intact primary forests and ensure that low‐intensity agricultural lands are not extensively converted to high‐intensity pastures.     

Range-wide effects of breeding- and nonbreeding-season climate on the abundance of a Neotropical migrant songbird

Geographic variation in the population dynamics of a species can result from regional variability in climate and how it affects reproduction and survival. Identifying such effects for migratory birds requires the integration of population models with knowledge of migratory connectivity between breeding and nonbreeding areas. We used Bayesian hierarchical models with 26 years of Breeding Bird Survey data (1982-2007) to investigate the impacts of breeding- and nonbreeding-season climate on abundance of American Redstarts (Setophaga ruticilla) across the species range. We focused on 15 populations defined by Bird Conservation Regions, and we included variation across routes and observers as well as temporal trends and climate effects. American Redstart populations that breed in eastern North America showed increased abundance following winters with higher plant productivity in the Caribbean where they are expected to overwinter. In contrast, western breeding populations showed little response to conditions in their expected wintering areas in west Mexico, perhaps reflecting lower migratory connectivity or differential effects of winter rainfall on individuals across the species range. Unlike the case with winter climate, we found few effects of temperature prior to arrival in spring (March-April) or during the nesting period (May-June) on abundance the following year. Eight populations showed significant changes in abundance, with the steepest declines in the Atlantic Northern Forest (-3.4%/yr) and the greatest increases in the Prairie Hardwood Transition (4%/yr). This study emphasizes how the effects of climate on populations of migratory birds are context dependent and can vary depending on geographic location and the period of the annual cycle. Such knowledge is essential for predicting regional variation in how populations of a species might vary in their response to climate change.     

Evaluating Causes of Population Change in North American Insectivorous Songbirds

Although the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) is a principal source of information regarding populations of most North American bird species, many features of the survey complicate analysis of population change. Correlation studies based on BBS data cannot be used to define cause and effect relationships unambiguously. Recently, Böhning-Gaese et al. (1993) presented an analysis of population trends in insectivorous songbirds using data from the BBS. They concluded that predation has played an important role in influencing population trends. We review aspects of the analysis methods for estimating population trends (e.g., observer effects, data subset) and for associating mean trends with species attributes (e.g., confounding of attributes). Using alternative analyses of the same BBS data, we demonstrate that the evidence that predation is associated with population declines is weaker than they suggested. Based on our analyses the only factor among those tested that was consistently associated with population trends was migration status (short-distance migrant/resident versus long-distance migrant) during the period 1978–1987. Also, we present evidence that the harsh winters of the mid-1970s severely depressed populations of short-distance migrant species and may have been responsible for the observed associations between migration status and population trends.     

Effects of river-flow regulation on anuran occupancy and abundance in riparian zones

The natural flow regimes of rivers worldwide have been heavily altered through anthropogenic activities, and dams in particular have a pervasive effect on riverine ecosystems. Flow-regulation effects of dams negatively affect species diversity and abundance of a variety of aquatic animals, including invertebrates and fishes. However, the effects on semiaquatic animals are relatively unknown. We conducted anuran calling surveys at 42 study locations along the Broad and Pacolet Rivers in South Carolina to address the potential effects of flow regulation by damming on anuran occupancy and abundance. We estimated occupancy and abundance with Program PRESENCE. Models incorporated distance upstream and downstream from the nearest dam as covariates and urbanization pressure as an alternative stressor. Distance from dam was associated with occupancy of 2 of the 9 anuran species in our analyses and with abundance of 6 species. In all cases, distance downstream from nearest dam was a better predictor of occupancy and abundance than distance upstream from nearest dam. For all but one species, distance downstream from nearest dam was positively correlated with both occupancy and abundance. Reduced occupancy and abundance of anurans likely resulted from downstream alterations in flow regime associated with damming, which can lead to reduced area of riparian wetlands that serve as anuran breeding habitat. Our results showed that damming has a strong negative effect on multiple anuran species across large spatial extents and suggest that flow regulation can affect semiaquatic animals occupying riparian zones.     

Impact of cattle grazing on the occupancy of a cryptic, threatened rail

Impacts of livestock grazing in arid and semiarid environments are often concentrated in and around wetlands where animals congregate for water, cooler temperatures, and green forage. We assessed the impacts of winter-spring (November-May) cattle grazing on marsh vegetation cover and occupancy of a highly secretive marsh bird that relies on dense vegetation cover, the California Black Rail (Laterallus jamaicensis coturniculus), in the northern Sierra Nevada foothills of California, U.S.A. Using detection-nondetection data collected during repeated call playback surveys at grazed vs. ungrazed marshes and a "random changes in occupancy" parameterization of a multi-season occupancy model, we examined relationships between occupancy and habitat covariates, while accounting for imperfect detection. Marsh vegetation cover was significantly lower at grazed marshes than at ungrazed marshes during the grazing season in 2007 but not in 2008. Winter-spring grazing had little effect on Black Rail occupancy at irrigated marshes. However, at nonirrigated marshes fed by natural springs and streams, grazed sites had lower occupancy than ungrazed sites. Black Rail occupancy was positively associated with marsh area, irrigation as a water source, and summer vegetation cover, and negatively associated with marsh isolation. Residual dry matter (RDM), a commonly used metric of grazing intensity, was significantly associated with summer marsh vegetation cover at grazed sites but not spring cover. Direct monitoring of marsh vegetation cover, particularly at natural spring- or stream-fed marshes, is recommended to prevent negative impacts to rails from overgrazing.     

Sensitivity analysis of North American bird population estimates

The Partners in Flight North American Landbird Conservation Plan provided estimates of population sizes for 448 landbird species using a multiplicative model. Input parameters in this calculation included the area of state × Bird Conservation Region polygons, area-specific mean Breeding Bird Survey counts circa 1995, and adjustment factors for the distance over which species may presumably be correctly counted, the assumed pairing of singing males with non-singing females, and variability in the propensity of birds to sing over the course of the survey day. I assessed the sensitivity of this population calculation to changes in the input parameters. I assessed both local and global sensitivity of the model to changes in the parameters with Monte Carlo one-at-a-time simulations and the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (FAST). Monte Carlo simulations were an estimate of local model sensitivity whereas FAST estimated global model sensitivity, accommodating the potential shared variance between model parameters. Monte Carlo simulations suggested population estimates were 39% more sensitive to changes in the detection distance adjustment than to the other parameters; the other parameters were nearly equal in their contribution to model sensitivity. Conversely, FAST analysis determined that each of the input variables aside from the pair adjustment provided roughly equal contributions to variability in population estimates. The most efficient means for improving continental population estimates for birds surveyed by the Breeding Bird Survey will be through increased scrutiny of the species-specific distance detection and time-of-day adjustments and improved understanding in the spatial and temporal variability in the mean Breeding Bird Survey count.     

Long-term declines of European insectivorous bird populations and potential causes

Evidence of declines in insect populations has recently received considerable scientific and societal attention. However, the lack of long-term insect monitoring makes it difficult to assess whether declines are geographically widespread. By contrast, bird populations are well monitored and often used as indicators of environmental change. We compared the population trends of European insectivorous birds with those of other birds to assess whether patterns in bird population trends were consistent with declines of insects. We further examined whether declines were evident for insectivores with different habitats, foraging strata, and other ecological preferences. Bird population trends were estimated for Europe (1990–2015) and Denmark (1990–2016). On average, insectivores declined over the study period (13% across Europe and 28% in Denmark), whereas omnivores had stable populations. Seedeaters also declined (28% across Europe; 34% in Denmark), but this assessment was based on fewer species than for other groups. The effects of insectivory were stronger for farmland species (especially grassland species), for ground feeders, and for cold-adapted species. Insectivory was associated with long-distance migration, which was also linked to population declines. However, many insectivores had stable populations, especially habitat generalists. Our findings suggest that the decline of insectivores is primarily associated with agricultural intensification and loss of grassland habitat. The loss of both seed and insect specialists indicates an overall trend toward bird communities dominated by diet generalists.     

Detecting Population Declines over Large Areas with Presence-Absence, Time-to-Encounter, and Count Survey Methods

Abstract:  Ecologists often discount presence-absence surveys as a poor way to gain insight into population dynamics, in part because these surveys are not amenable to many standard statistical tests. Still, presence-absence surveys are sometimes the only feasible alternative for monitoring large areas when funds are limited, especially for sparse or difficult-to-detect species. I undertook a detailed simulation study to compare the power of presence-absence, count, and time-to-encounter surveys to detect regional declines in a population. I used a modeling approach that simulates both population numbers and the monitoring process, accounting for observation and other measurement errors. In gauging the efficacy of presence-absence surveys versus other approaches, I varied the number of survey sites, the spatial variation in encounter rate, the mean encounter rate, and the type of population loss. My results showed that presence-absence data can be as or more powerful than count data in many cases. Quantitative guidelines for choosing between presence-absence surveys and count surveys depend on the biological and logistical constraints governing a conservation monitoring situation. Generally, presence-absence surveys work best when there is little variability in abundance among the survey sites, the organism is rare, and the species is difficult to detect so that the time spent getting to each survey site is less than or equal to the time spent surveying each site. Count surveys work best otherwise. I present a case study with count data on the Northern Flicker ( Colaptes auratus ) from the North American Breeding Bird Survey to illustrate how the method might be used with field-survey data. The case study demonstrates that a count survey would be the most cost-effective design but would entail reduction in the number of sites. If this site reduction is not desirable, a presence-absence survey would be the most cost-effective survey.     

北京和上海市居民冬夏两季饮用水消费习惯

饮用水是人体暴露于有毒物质的重要暴露源,为了定量描述饮用水中污染物对暴露人群所造成的危害,世界各国的科学家们对饮用水的健康风险评价做了大量的研究.通常,健康风险评价需要污染物毒理学数据和暴露人群的暴露剂量数据.目前,针对很多的有毒污染物,国际上已经建立了应用于健康风险评价的毒理学数据库,同时积累了大量可用的有效数据.而对于暴露人群的暴露剂量数据,则是健康风险评价所要研究的重点.正确估计暴露人群的暴露剂量需要消费者提供大量的消费信息.例如,暴露人群每天消费的饮用水水量.美国环保局(EPA)认为成人每天消耗的饮用水水量为2L·d-1,此外,饮用水的消耗量会随着暴露人群的身体活动状况和所处环境状况(温度,湿度等)的改变而改变.目前,许多研究都是关于饮用水消费信息的,总体来讲这些研究结果基本上与美国环保局所采用的饮水消耗数据相一致.需要说明的是中国居民有完全不同于西方人的饮用水消费方式,如果在进行中国居民饮用水健康风险评价过程中应用美国环保局的假设会带来较大的不确定性.饮用水健康风险评价工作在我国开展并不多,尤其缺少中国居民饮用水消费习惯的数据库.这些客观条件使得在我国进行饮用水健康风险评价时只能从基础做起,积累有效的数据.本研究以北京和上海两座城市居民为研究对象,2002年到2004年分冬夏两季分别进行了4次饮用水消费习惯调查.研究采用随机入户方式(2004年至2005年),与中央电视台-索福瑞联合调查有限公司合作进行.参加调查的家庭从中央电视台入户收视率调查的基础数据库中随机抽取,在抽取过程中兼顾了不同城区、年龄结构、知识结构、收入水平等因素.研究表明,北京和上海居民冬夏两季的日均饮水量分别为2.2L·d-1、1.7L·d-1、2.0L·d-1和1.8L·d-1,这一结果和美国环保局的假设基本一致.同时本研究考察了性别、年龄、职业和季节对应用水消费习惯的影响.研究表明,日均饮水量随年龄的增加有增加的趋势,这一趋势在北京的夏季调查中趋势明显(p=0.01);男性的日均饮用水量大于女性,在上海冬季和夏季调查中均存在显著的差异(冬季:p=0.01;夏季:p=0.04);季节也同样影响被访者的日均饮水量,但是在4次调查中均未发现显著性差异.在北京冬季和夏季的调查中均发现了工作地点对饮用水消费习惯的显著影响(夏季p=0.01和冬季p=0.00).研究同样考察了居民饮用水消费类型,调查结果表明,煮沸后的自来水是中国居民最主要的日常饮品(上海夏季:58.3%;上海冬季67.9%;北京夏季:42.7%;北京冬季:60.0%).同时消费桶装纯净水的被访者也占有相当的比重(上海夏季:36.2%;上海冬季:24.7%;北京夏季:30.7%;北京冬季:60.0%).研究同时表明,在中国居民的日常生活中牛奶和豆奶已经成为重要的日常饮品.极少量的居民(北京夏季:10.7%;北京冬季5.7%;上海夏季1.2%;上海冬季0.6%)有直接饮用自来水的习惯.研究表明滞留水(在自来水水管中滞留6h以上的自来水)是对人体健康影响最大的水,而在我们的调查中,中国居民几乎不直接饮用滞留水.当前,饮用水健康风险评价在世界范围内蓬勃展开,但是这一技术在我国还处于起步阶段.本研究作为饮用水健康风险评价的前期工作,为其在中国的进一步发展提供了基础性的数据.     

New hypothesis helps explain elasmobranch "outburst" on Georges Bank in the 1980s.

Regime shifts are a feature of many ecosystems. During the last 40 years, intensive commercial exploitation and environmental changes have driven substantial shifts in ecosystem structure and function in the northwest Atlantic. In the Georges Bank-southern New England region, commercially important species have declined, and the ecosystem shifted to one dominated by economically undesirable species such as skates and dogfish. Aggregated abundance indices indicate a large increase of small and medium-sized elasmobranchs in the early 1980s following the decline of many commercial species. It has been hypothesized that ecological interactions such as competition and predation within the Georges Bank region were responsible for and are maintaining the "elasmobranch outburst" at the heart of the observed ecosystem shift. We offer an alternative hypothesis invoking population connectivity among winter skate populations such that the observed abundance increase is a result of migratory dynamics, perhaps with the Scotian Shelf (i.e., it is an open population). Here we critically evaluate the survey data for winter skate, the species principally responsible for the increase in total skate abundance during the 1980s on Georges Bank, to assess support for both hypotheses. We show that time series from different surveys within the Georges Bank region exhibit low coherence, indicating that a widespread population increase was not consistently shown by all surveys. Further, we argue that observed length-frequency data for Georges Bank indicate biologically unrealistic population fluctuations if the population is closed. Neither finding supports the elasmobranch outburst hypothesis. In contrast, survey time series for Georges Bank and the Scotian Shelf are negatively correlated, in support of the population connectivity hypothesis. Further, we argue that understanding the mechanisms of ecosystem state changes and population connectivity are needed to make inferences about both the causes and appropriate management responses to large-scale system change.     

Experimental evidence of a risk-sensitive reproductive allocation in a long-lived mammal

When reproduction competes with the amount of resources available for survival during an unpredictable nonbreeding season, individuals should adopt a risk-sensitive regulation of their reproductive allocation. We tested this hypothesis on female reindeer (Rangifer tarandus), which face a trade-off between reproduction and acquisition of body reserves during spring and summer, with autumn body mass functioning as insurance against stochastic winter climatic severity. The study was conducted in a population consisting of two herds: one that received supplementary winter feeding for four years while the other utilized natural pastures. The females receiving additional forage allocated more to their calves. Experimental translocation of females between the herds was conducted to simulate two contrasting rapid alterations of winter conditions. When females receiving supplementary feeding were moved to natural pastures, they promptly reduced their reproductive allocation the following summer. However, when winter conditions were improved, females were reluctant to increase their reproductive allocation. This asymmetric response to improved vs. reduced winter conditions is consistent with a risk-averse adjustment in reproductive allocation. The ability of individuals to track their environment and the concordant risk-sensitive adjustment of reproductive allocation may render subarctic reindeer more resilient to climate change than previously supposed.     

Water Consumption Habit in General Population of Shanghai and Beijing, China

饮用水是人体暴露于有毒物质的重要暴露源,为了定量描述饮用水中污染物对暴露人群所造成的危害,世界各国的科学家们对饮用水的健康风险评价做了大量的研究. 通常,健康风险评价需要污染物毒理学数据和暴露人群的暴露剂量数据. 目前,针对很多的有毒污染物,国际上已经建立了应用于健康风险评价的毒理学数据库,同时积累了大量可用的有效数据. 而对于暴露人群的暴露剂量数据,则是健康风险评价所要研究的重点. 正确估计暴露人群的暴露剂量需要消费者提供大量的消费信息. 例如,暴露人群每天消费的饮用水水量. 美国环保局(EPA)认为成人每天消耗的饮用水水量为2L·d-1,此外,饮用水的消耗量会随着暴露人群的身体活动状况和所处环境状况(温度,湿度等)的改变而改变. 目前,许多研究都是关于饮用水消费信息的,总体来讲这些研究结果基本上与美国环保局所采用的饮水消耗数据相一致. 需要说明的是中国居民有完全不同于西方人的饮用水消费方式,如果在进行中国居民饮用水健康风险评价过程中应用美国环保局的假设会带来较大的不确定性. 饮用水健康风险评价工作在我国开展并不多,尤其缺少中国居民饮用水消费习惯的数据库. 这些客观条件使得在我国进行饮用水健康风险评价时只能从基础做起,积累有效的数据. 本研究以北京和上海两座城市居民为研究对象,2002年到2004年分冬夏两季分别进行了4次饮用水消费习惯调查. 研究采用随机入户方式(2004年至2005年),与中央电视台-索福瑞联合调查有限公司合作进行. 参加调查的家庭从中央电视台入户收视率调查的基础数据库中随机抽取,在抽取过程中兼顾了不同城区、年龄结构、知识结构、收入水平等因素. 研究表明,北京和上海居民冬夏两季的日均饮水量分别为2.2L·d-1、1.7L·d-1、2.0L·d-1和1.8L·d-1,这一结果和美国环保局的假设基本一致. 同时本研究考察了性别、年龄、职业和季节对应用水消费习惯的影响. 研究表明,日均饮水量随年龄的增加有增加的趋势,这一趋势在北京的夏季调查中趋势明显(p=0.01);男性的日均饮用水量大于女性,在上海冬季和夏季调查中均存在显著的差异(冬季：p=0.01;夏季：p=0.04);季节也同样影响被访者的日均饮水量,但是在4次调查中均未发现显著性差异. 在北京冬季和夏季的调查中均发现了工作地点对饮用水消费习惯的显著影响(夏季p=0.01 和冬季p=0.00). 研究同样考察了居民饮用水消费类型,调查结果表明,煮沸后的自来水是中国居民最主要的日常饮品(上海夏季：58.3%;上海冬季67.9%;北京夏季：42.7%;北京冬季：60.0%). 同时消费桶装纯净水的被访者也占有相当的比重(上海夏季：36.2%;上海冬季：24.7%;北京夏季：30.7%;北京冬季：60.0%). 研究同时表明,在中国居民的日常生活中牛奶和豆奶已经成为重要的日常饮品. 极少量的居民(北京夏季：10.7%;北京冬季5.7%;上海夏季1.2%;上海冬季0.6%)有直接饮用自来水的习惯. 研究表明滞留水(在自来水水管中滞留6h以上的自来水)是对人体健康影响最大的水,而在我们的调查中,中国居民几乎不直接饮用滞留水. 当前,饮用水健康风险评价在世界范围内蓬勃展开,但是这一技术在我国还处于起步阶段. 本研究作为饮用水健康风险评价的前期工作,为其在中国的进一步发展提供了基础性的数据.     

On the Decline of the Rusty Blackbird and the Use of Ornithological Literature to Document Long-Term Population Trends

Abstract: Unlike most North American blackbirds, Rusty Blackbirds (  Euphagus carolensis ) have shown steep population declines. Declines of approximately 90% are indicated for three recent decades from the Breeding Bird Survey, Christmas Bird Counts, and Quebec Checklist Program. Analyses of abundance classifications in bird distribution books and annotated checklists reveal an overlooked but long-term decline dating back to at least the early part of this century. Rusty Blackbirds were described as very common to abundant in 56% of the pre-1920 published accounts, 19% of the 1921–1950 accounts, and only 7% of the post-1950 accounts. Rusty Blackbirds were described as uncommon in none of the pre-1950 accounts, 18% of the 1951–1980 accounts, and 43% of the post-1980 accounts. A similar pattern was found for analyses based on local checklists. Destruction of wooded wetlands on wintering grounds, acid precipitation, and the conversion of boreal forest wetlands could have contributed to these declines. Systematic analysis of regional guides and checklists provides a valuable tool for examining large-scale and long-term population changes in birds.     

Land‐Cover Change and Avian Diversity in the Conterminous United States

Abstract: Changes in land use and land cover have affected and will continue to affect biological diversity worldwide. Yet, understanding the spatially extensive effects of land‐cover change has been challenging because data that are consistent over space and time are lacking. We used the U.S. National Land Cover Dataset Land Cover Change Retrofit Product and North American Breeding Bird Survey data to examine land‐cover change and its associations with diversity of birds with principally terrestrial life cycles (landbirds) in the conterminous United States. We used mixed‐effects models and model selection to rank associations by ecoregion. Land cover in 3.22% of the area considered in our analyses changed from 1992 to 2001, and changes in species richness and abundance of birds were strongly associated with land‐cover changes. Changes in species richness and abundance were primarily associated with changes in nondominant types of land cover, yet in many ecoregions different types of land cover were associated with species richness than were associated with abundance. Conversion of natural land cover to anthropogenic land cover was more strongly associated with changes in bird species richness and abundance than persistence of natural land cover in nearly all ecoregions and different covariates were most strongly associated with species richness than with abundance in 11 of 17 ecoregions. Loss of grassland and shrubland affected bird species richness and abundance in forested ecoregions. Loss of wetland was associated with bird abundance in forested ecoregions. Our findings highlight the value of understanding changes in nondominant land cover types and their association with bird diversity in the United States.     

Seasonal studies on the relative importance of different size fractions of phytoplankton in Narragansett Bay (USA)

The composition and productivity of four different size-fractions (<20, 20 to 60, 60 to 100, >100 μm) of the phytoplankton of lower Narragansett Bay (USA) were followed over an annual cycle from November, 1972 to October, 1973. Diatoms dominated the population in the winter-spring bloom and in the fall, the summer population was dominated by flagellates. The nannoplankton (<20 μm) were the most important, accounting for 46.6% of the annual biomass as chlorophyll a and 50.8% of the total production. The relative importance of the different fractions showed a marked seasonality. During the winter-spring and fall blooms the netplankton fractions (>20 μm) were the most important. Nannoplankters domnated in the summer. The yearly mean assimilation numbers for the different fractions were not signfficantly different. During the winter-spring bloom, however, the assimilation numbers for the netplankters were significantly higher than those for the nannoplankton fraction. Temperature accounted for most of the variability in assimilation numbers; a marked nutrient stress was observed on only two occasions. Growth rates calculated from ¹⁴C uptake and adenosine triphosphate (ATP)-cell carbon were generally quite high; maxima were >1.90 doublings per day during blooms of a flagellate in the summer and of Skeletonema costatum in the fall. The series of short cycles observed in which the dominant species changed were related to changes in the physiological state of the population. Higher growth rates were generally observed at times of peak phytoplankton abundance while lower growth rates were observed between these peaks. The high growth rates and assimilation numbers usually found suggest that the phytoplankton in lower Narragansett Bay was not generally nutrient-limited between November, 1972 and October, 1973. Nutrient regeneration in this shallow estuary, therefore, must be very rapid when in situ nutrient levels are low.     

Bimodal orientation and the occurrence of temporary reverse bird migration during autumn in south Scandinavia

Extensive ringing data from a coastal site (Falsterbo Bird Observatory) in southwesternmost Sweden were used to investigate the occurrence of reverse autumn migration among 20 passerine bird species of widely different migration categories. The data demonstrate that reverse migration is a widespread and regular phenomenon among nocturnal as well as diurnal migrants and among irruptive migrants, temperate zone migrants, and long-distance migrants destined for tropical winter quarters. The reoriented movements were directed approximately opposite to the normal migration direction, i.e. between NNW and ENE from the coast and towards inland. Median distances of reverse movements varied between 9 and 65 km. Some individuals of irruptive and partial migrants settled to winter in the reverse direction. Bird species with relatively small fat reserves at capture were more likely to perform reverse migratory movements than species with larger fat deposits. In two species birds performing forward migration were significantly heavier within 10 days after capture than individuals performing reverse movements. The reoriented movements probably are of adaptive significance for birds confronted with the sea and pre-disposed to refuelling during migration. A bimodal orientation mechanism will bring the birds from an area with high competition for food and high predation risk to more suitable resting and feeding grounds before resuming migration in the forward direction and crossing the barrier. Received: 11 July 1995/Accepted after revision: 19 November 1995     

Escape migration decisions in Eurasian Woodcocks: insights from survival analyses using large-scale recovery data

During unpredictable adverse conditions, endotherms can engage in emergency behaviors (movement, torpor, hyperphagia) to maintain energy balance and reduce mortality hazards. Bird “escape migration” is one of the most visible of these behaviors. In this study, we focus on a Eurasian Woodcock Scolopax rusticola population. Seasonal migrations bring this population from its breeding grounds in Eastern and Northern Europe to its wintering grounds in France. A varying number of these birds are also regularly reported from Spain, supposedly during additional escape movements that occur in winter. Using models that account for the imperfect detection rate of individuals and a large (>44,000 individuals) dataset combining information from the wintering and breeding ranges, we show that severe winters significantly reduced survival probability, but that migration to Spain increased only during the most intense cold spell that occurred over the 20-year study period. This suggests that the decision to resume migration during the winter is submitted to a threshold mechanism, which we discuss in the light of current models of migratory behavior.     

Population growth in snow geese: a modeling approach integrating demographic and survey information

There are few analytic tools available to formally integrate information coming from population surveys and demographic studies. The Kalman filter is a procedure that facilitates such integration. Based on a state-space model, we can obtain a likelihood function for the survey data using a Kalman filter, which we may then combine with a likelihood for the demographic data. In this paper, we used this combined approach to analyze the population dynamics of a hunted species, the Greater Snow Goose (Chen caerulescens atlantica), and to examine the extent to which it can improve previous demographic population models. The state equation of the state-space model was a matrix population model with fecundity and regression parameters relating adult survival and harvest rate estimated in a previous capture-recapture study. The observation equation combined the output from this model with estimates from an annual spring photographic survey of the population. The maximum likelihood estimates of the regression parameters from the combined analysis differed little from the values of the original capture-recapture analysis, though their precision improved. The model output was found to be insensitive to a wide range of coefficient of variation (CV) in fecundity parameters. We found a close match between the surveyed and smoothed population size estimates generated by the Kalman filter over an 18-year period, and the estimated CV of the survey (0.078-0.150) was quite compatible with its assumed value (approximately 0.10). When we used the updated parameter values to predict future population size, the model underestimated the surveyed population size by 18% over a three-year period. However, this could be explained by a concurrent change in the survey method. We conclude that the Kalman filter is a promising approach to forecast population change because it incorporates survey information in a formal way compared with ad hoc approaches that either neglect this information or require some parameter or model tuning.     

Phytoplankton carbon dynamics during a winter-spring diatom bloom in an enclosed marine ecosystem: primary production,biomass and loss rates

Phytoplankton production, standing crop, and loss processes (respiration, sedimentation, grazing by zooplankton, and excretion) were measured on a daily basis during the growth, dormancy and decline of a winter-spring diatom bloom in a large-scale (13 m³) marine mesocosm in 1987. Carbonspecific rates of production and biomass change were highly correlated whereas production and loss rates were unrelated over the experimental period when the significant changes in algal biomass characteristic of phytoplankton blooms were occurring. The observed decline in diatom growth rates was caused by nutrient limitation. Daily phytoplankton production rates calculated from the phytoplankton continuity equation were in excellent agreement with rates independently determined using standard ¹⁴C techniques. A carbon budget for the winter bloom indicated that 82.4% of the net daytime primary production was accounted for by measured loss processes, 1.3% was present as standing crop at the end of the experiment, and 16.3% was unexplained. Losses via sedimentation (44.8%) and nighttime phytoplankton respiration (24.1%) predominated, while losses due to zooplankton grazing (10.7%) and nighttime phytoplankton excretion (2.8%) were of lesser importance. A model simulating daily phytoplankton biomass was developed to demonstrate the relative importance of the individual loss processes.