Decoupling Streamflow Responses to Climate Variability and Land Use/Cover Changes in a Watershed in Northern China

Restored annual streamflow (Q_r) and measured daily streamflow of the Chaohe watershed located in northern China and associated long‐term climate and land use/cover data were used to explore the effects of land use/cover change and climate variability on the streamflow during 1961‐2009. There were no significant changes in annual precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration, whereas Q_r decreased significantly by 0.81 mm/yr (p < 0.001) over the study period with a change point in 1999. We used 1961‐1998 as the baseline period (BP) and 1999‐2009 the change period (CP). The mean Q_r during the CP decreased by 39.4 mm compared with that in the BP. From 1979 to 2009, the grassland area declined by 69.6%, and the forest and shrublands increased by 105.4 and 73.1%, respectively. The land use/cover change and climate variability contributed for 58.4 and 41.6% reduction in mean annual Q_r, respectively. Compared with the BP, median and high flows in the CP decreased by 38.8 and up to 75.5%, respectively. The study concludes that large‐scale ecological restoration and watershed management in northern China has greatly decreased water yield and reduced high flows due to the improved land cover by afforestation leading to higher water loss through evapotranspiration. At a large watershed scale, land use/cover change could play as much of an important role as climate variability on water resources.     

LONG‐TERM CHANGES IN REGIONAL HYDROLOGIC REGIME FOLLOWING IMPOUNDMENT IN A HUMID‐CLIMATE WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: We analyzed the type of hydrologic adjustments resulting from flow regulation across a range of dam types, distributed throughout the Connecticut River watershed, using two approaches: (1) the Index of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) and (2) log‐Pearson Type III flood frequency analysis. We applied these analyses to seven rivers that have extensive pre‐and post‐disturbance flow records and to six rivers that have only long post‐regulation flow records. Lastly, we analyzed six unregulated streams to establish the regional natural flow regime and to test whether it has changed significantly over time in the context of an increase in forest cover from less than 20 percent historically to greater than 80 percent at present. We found significant hydrologic adjustments associated with both impoundments and land use change. On average, maximum peak flows decrease by 32 percent in impounded rivers, but the effect decreases with increasing flow duration. One‐day minimum low flows increase following regulation, except for the hydro‐electric facility on the mainstem. Hydrograph reversals occur more commonly now on the mainstem, but the tributary flood control structures experience diminished reversals. Major shifts in flood frequency occur with the largest effect occurring downstream of tributary flood control impoundments and less so downstream of the mainstem's hydroelectric facility. These overall results indicate that the hydrologic impacts of dams in humid environments can be as significant as those for large, multiple‐purpose reservoirs in more arid environments.     

Application of the ELOHA Framework to Regulated Rivers in the Upper Tennessee River Basin: A Case Study

In order for habitat restoration in regulated rivers to be effective at large scales, broadly applicable frameworks are needed that provide measurable objectives and contexts for management. The Ecological Limits of Hydrologic Alteration (ELOHA) framework was created as a template to assess hydrologic alterations, develop relationships between altered streamflow and ecology, and establish environmental flow standards. We tested the utility of ELOHA in informing flow restoration applications for fish and riparian communities in regulated rivers in the Upper Tennessee River Basin (UTRB). We followed the steps of ELOHA to generate univariate relationships between altered flows and ecology within the UTRB. By comparison, we constructed multivariate models to determine improvements in predictive capacity with the addition of non-flow variables. We then determined whether those relationships could predict fish and riparian responses to flow restoration in the Cheoah River, a regulated system within the UTRB. Although ELOHA provided a robust template to construct hydrologic information and predict hydrology for ungaged locations, our results do not suggest that univariate relationships between flow and ecology (step 4, ELOHA process) can produce results sufficient to guide flow restoration in regulated rivers. After constructing multivariate models, we successfully developed predictive relationships between flow alterations and fish/riparian responses. In accordance with model predictions, riparian encroachment displayed consistent decreases with increases in flow magnitude in the Cheoah River; however, fish richness did not increase as predicted 4 years after restoration. Our results suggest that altered temperature and substrate and the current disturbance regime may have reduced opportunities for fish species colonization. Our case study highlights the need for interdisciplinary science in defining environmental flows for regulated rivers and the need for adaptive management approaches once flows are restored.     

Understanding the Factors That Influence Headwater Stream Flows in Response to Storm Events1

Stanfield, Les W. and Don A. Jackson, 2011. Understanding the Factors That Influence Headwater Stream Flows in Response to Storm Events. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐22. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00518.x Abstract: Headwater drainage features (first‐ to second‐order streams) are the capillaries of the landscape that, among other things, moderate the timing and volumes of water available to the riparian and aquatic ecosystems. How these features respond to summer rainfall is poorly understood. We studied how geology and an index of land use/land cover influenced peak flows following rainfall events in 110 headwater stream sites that were studied over a four‐month period during a drought year. Highest peak flows were observed in the most urbanized catchments and in poorly drained soils, but specific responses were variable depending on both geology and land disturbance. Redundancy analysis indicated that both surficial geology and land disturbance were important factors influencing peak flows under drought conditions. We conclude that responses of these headwater streams to individual storms during drought conditions are unpredictable from data collected using our methods, but increased peak flows were associated with increased urban and agricultural development, but mitigated by surficial geology. These findings demonstrate the challenges to accurately predict flow conditions in headwater streams during periods of extreme weather that concurrently have the greatest potential effect on biota. The combination of these challenges and importance of such events indicates the need to develop new approaches to study and manage these resources.     

Impact of Changing Climate and Land Cover on Flood Magnitudes in the Delaware River Basin,USA

Changing climate and land cover are expected to impact flood hydrology in the Delaware River Basin over the 21st Century. HEC‐HMS models (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center‐Hydrologic Modeling System) were developed for five case study watersheds selected to represent a range of scale, soil types, climate, and land cover. Model results indicate that climate change alone could affect peak flood discharges by ?6% to +58% a wide range that reflects regional variation in projected rainfall and snowmelt and local watershed conditions. Land cover changes could increase peak flood discharges up to 10% in four of the five watersheds. In those watersheds, the combination of climate and land cover change increase modeled peak flood discharges by up to 66% and runoff volumes by up to 44%. Precipitation projections are a key source of uncertainty, but there is a high likelihood of greater precipitation falling on a more urbanized landscape that produces larger floods. The influence of climate and land cover changes on flood hydrology for the modeled watersheds varies according to future time period, climate scenario, watershed land cover and soil conditions, and flood frequency. The impacts of climate change alone are typically greater than land cover change but there is substantial geographic variation, with urbanization the greater influence on some small, developing watersheds.     

Hydrological classification of natural flow regimes to support environmental flow assessments in intensively regulated Mediterranean rivers, Segura River Basin (Spain)

Hydrological classification constitutes the first step of a new holistic framework for developing regional environmental flow criteria: the “Ecological Limits of Hydrologic Alteration (ELOHA)”. The aim of this study was to develop a classification for 390 stream sections of the Segura River Basin based on 73 hydrological indices that characterize their natural flow regimes. The hydrological indices were calculated with 25 years of natural monthly flows (1980/81–2005/06) derived from a rainfall-runoff model developed by the Spanish Ministry of Environment and Public Works. These indices included, at a monthly or annual basis, measures of duration of droughts and central tendency and dispersion of flow magnitude (average, low and high flow conditions). Principal Component Analysis (PCA) indicated high redundancy among most hydrological indices, as well as two gradients: flow magnitude for mainstream rivers and temporal variability for tributary streams. A classification with eight flow-regime classes was chosen as the most easily interpretable in the Segura River Basin, which was supported by ANOSIM analyses. These classes can be simplified in 4 broader groups, with different seasonal discharge pattern: large rivers, perennial stable streams, perennial seasonal streams and intermittent and ephemeral streams. They showed a high degree of spatial cohesion, following a gradient associated with climatic aridity from NW to SE, and were well defined in terms of the fundamental variables in Mediterranean streams: magnitude and temporal variability of flows. Therefore, this classification is a fundamental tool to support water management and planning in the Segura River Basin. Future research will allow us to study the flow alteration-ecological response relationship for each river type, and set the basis to design scientifically credible environmental flows following the ELOHA framework.     

Developing risk models of Cryptosporidium transport in soils from vegetated, tilted soilbox experiments

Transport of Cryptosporidium parvum through macroporous soils is poorly understood yet critical for assessing the risk of groundwater contamination. We developed a conceptual model of the physics of flow and transport in packed, tilted, and vegetated soilboxes during and immediately after a simulated rainfall event and applied it to 54 experiments implemented with different soils, slopes, and rainfall rates. Using a parsimonious inverse modeling procedure, we show that a significant amount of subsurface outflow from the soilboxes is due to macropore flow. The effective hydraulic properties of the macropore space were obtained by calibration of a simple two-domain flow and transport model that accounts for coupled flow in the matrix and in the macropores of the soils. Using linear mixed-effects analysis, macropore hydraulic properties and oocyst attenuation were shown to be associated with soil bulk density and rainfall rate. Macropore flow was shown to be responsible for bromide and C. parvum transport through the soil into the underlying pore space observed during the 4-h experiments. We confirmed this finding by conducting a pair of saturated soil column studies under homogeneously repacked conditions with no macropores in which no C. parvum transport was observed in the effluent. The linear mixed-effects and logistic regression models developed from the soilbox experiments provide a basis for estimating macropore hydraulic properties and the risk of C. parvum transport through shallow soils from bulk density, precipitation, and total shallow subsurface flow rate. The risk assessment is consistent with the reported occurrence of oocysts in springs or groundwater from fractured or karstic rocks protected only by shallow overlying soils.     

IDENTIFICATION OF CHANGES IN STREAMFLOW CHARACTERISTICS1

ABSTRACT: A set of procedures for identifying changes in selected streamflow characteristics at sites having long‐term continuous streamflow records is illustrated by using streamflow data from the Waccamaw River at Freeland, North Carolina for the 55‐year period of 1940–1994. Data were evaluated and compared to streamflow in the adjacent Lumber River Basin to determine if changes in streamflow characteristics in the Waccamaw River were localized and possibly the result of some human activity, or consistent with regional variations. Following 1963, droughts in the Waccamaw Basin seem to have been less severe than in the Lumber Basin, and the annual one‐, seven‐, and 30‐day low flows exhibited a slightly increasing trend in the Waccamaw River. Mean daily flows in the Waccamaw River at the 90 percent exceedance level (low flows) during 1985–194, a relatively dry period, were very nearly equal to flows at the same exceedance level for 1970–1979, which represents the 10‐year period between 1940 and 1994 with the highest flows. Prior to the 1980s, flows per unit drainage area in the Waccamaw Basin were generally less than those in the Lumber Basin, but after 1980, the opposite was true. The ratio of base flow to runoff in the Waccamaw River may have changed relative to that in the Lumber River in the late 1970s. There was greater variability in Waccamaw River streamflow than in Lumber River flow, and flow variability in the Waccamaw River may have increased slightly during 1985–1994.     

Effect of Soils on Water Quantity and Quality in Piedmont Forested Headwater Watersheds of North Carolina1

Boggs, Johnny, Ge Sun, David Jones, and Steven G. McNulty, 2012. Effect of Soils on Water Quantity and Quality in Piedmont Forested Headwater Watersheds of North Carolina. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐19. DOI: 10.1111/jawr.12001 Abstract: Water quantity and quality data were compared from six headwater watersheds on two distinct soil formations, Carolina Slate Belt (CSB) and Triassic Basins (TB). CSB soils are generally thicker, less erodible, and contain less clay content than soils found in TB. TB generated significantly more discharge/precipitation ratio than CSB (0.33 vs. 0.24) in the 2009 dormant season. In the 2009 growing season, TB generated significantly less discharge/precipitation ratio than CSB (0.02 vs. 0.07). Over the entire monitoring period, differences in discharge/precipitation ratios between CSB and TB were not significantly different (0.17 vs. 0.20, respectively). Storm‐flow rates were significantly higher in TB than CSB in both dormant and growing season. Benthic macroinvertebrate biotic index scores were excellent for all streams. Nutrient concentrations and exports in CSB and TB were within background levels for forests. Low‐stream nitrate and ammonium concentrations and exports suggested that both CSB and TB were nitrogen limited. Soils appear to have had a significant influence on seasonal and storm‐flow generation, but not on long‐term total water yield and water quality under forested conditions. This study indicated that watersheds on TB soils might be more prone to storm‐flow generation than on CSB soils when converted from forest to urban. Future urban growth in the area should consider differences in baseline hydrology and effects of landuse change on water quantity and quality.     

Dams,Floodplain Land Use,and Riparian Forest Conservation in the Semiarid Upper Colorado River Basin,USA

Land and water resource development can independently eliminate riparian plant communities, including Fremont cottonwood forest (CF), a major contributor to ecosystem structure and functioning in semiarid portions of the American Southwest. We tested whether floodplain development was linked to river regulation in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) by relating the extent of five developed land-cover categories as well as CF and other natural vegetation to catchment reservoir capacity, changes in total annual and annual peak discharge, and overall level of mainstem hydrologic alteration (small, moderate, or large) in 26 fourth-order subbasins. We also asked whether CF appeared to be in jeopardy at a regional level. We classified 51% of the 57,000 ha of alluvial floodplain examined along >2600 km of mainstem rivers as CF and 36% as developed. The proportion developed was unrelated to the level of mainstem hydrologic alteration. The proportion classified as CF was also independent of the level of hydrologic alteration, a result we attribute to confounding effects from development, the presence of time lags, and contrasting effects from flow alteration in different subbasins. Most CF (68% by area) had a sparse canopy (50% canopy cover occupied <1% of the floodplain in 15 subbasins. We suggest that CF extent in the UCRB will decline markedly in the future, when the old trees on floodplains now disconnected from the river die and large areas change from CF to non-CF categories. Attention at a basinwide scale to the multiple factors affecting cottonwood patch dynamics is needed to assure conservation of these riparian forests.     

Evaluating Cover Crops (Sudex,Sunn Hemp,Oats) for Use as Vegetative Filters to Control Sediment and Nutrient Loading From Agricultural Runoff in a Hawaiian Watershed1

Abstract: A study was conducted to determine the effects of three land covers (sunn hemp –Crotalaria juncea, sudex, a sorghum‐sudangrass hybrid –Sorghum bicolor x S. bicolor var. sudanese, and common oats –Avena sativa) planted as vegetative filter strips on the reduction of sediment and nutrient loading of surface runoff within the Kaika‐Waialua watershed on the island of Oahu, Hawaii. Runoff samples were collected and analyzed for total suspended solids (TSS), total dissolved solids (TDS), phosphorous, and three forms of nitrogen (nitrate, ammonium, total nitrogen). Study results show that during seven out of 10 runoff events, the three cover crop treatments significantly reduced TSS as compared to the fallow treatment. Average removal efficiencies were 85, 77, and 73% for oats, sunn hemp, and sudex, respectively, as compared to the fallow treatment. Nutrient concentrations were low with phosphorous concentrations, lower than 1 (μg/ml) for all treatments, and total nitrogen (TN) concentrations below 7 (μg/ml) except in the sunn hemp treatment, where TN concentrations were less than 10 (μg/ml). Results of analysis of TDS showed that the cover crop treatments did not decrease dissolved solids concentrations in comparison with the fallow treatment. Analysis of nutrient concentrations in runoff samples did not detect any significant decreases in phosphorous, nitrogen, ammonium, or TN concentrations in comparison to the fallow treatment. However, a significant increase in TN concentrations in the sunn hemp treatment was detected and showed the nitrogen fixing capacity of sunn hemp. No treatment effects on runoff volume were detected, and runoff volumes were directly correlated with rainfall amounts showing no crops significantly impacted soil infiltration rates. These results were attributed to extremely low soil hydraulic conductivities (0.0001‐7 cm/day at the soil surface, 15 and 30 cm below the soil surface). This study showed that cover crops planted as vegetative filters can effectively reduce sediment loads coming from idle and fallow fields on moderately steep volcanically derived highly weathered soils.     

INCREASED BASEFLOW IN IOWA OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE 20TH CENTURY1

ABSTRACT: Historical trends in annual discharge characteristics were evaluated for 11 gauging stations located throughout Iowa. Discharge records from nine eight‐digit hydrologic unit code (HUC‐8) watersheds were examined for the period 1940 to 2000, whereas data for two larger river systems (Cedar and Des Moines Rivers) were examined for a longer period of record (1903 to 2000). In nearly all watersheds evaluated, annual base flow, annual minimum flow, and the annual base flow percentage significantly increased over time. Some rivers also exhibited increasing trends in total annual discharge, whereas only the Maquoketa River had significantly decreased annual maximum flows. Regression of stream discharge versus precipitation indicated that more precipitation is being routed into streams as base flow than as storm flow in the second half of the 20th Century. Reasons for the observed stream flow trends are hypothesized to include improved conservation practices, greater artificial drainage, increasing row crop production, and channel incision. Each of these reasons is consistent with the observed trends, and all are likely responsible to some degree in most watersheds.     

HYDROLOGIC LANDSCAPES ON THE DELMARVA PENINSULA PART 2: ESTIMATES OF BASE-FLOW NITROGEN LOAD TO CHESAPEAKE BAY1

ABSTRACT: Base-flow samples were collected from 47 sampling sites for four seasons from 1990–91 on the Delmarva Peninsula in Delaware and Maryland to relate stream chemistry to a “hydrologic landscape” and season. Two hydrologic landscapes were determined: (1) a well-drained landscape, characterized by a combination of a low percentage of forest cover, a low percentage of poorly drained soil, and elevated channel slope; and (2) poorly drained landscape, characterized by a combination of an elevated percentage of forest cover, an elevated percentage of poorly drained soil, and low channel slope. Concentrations of nitrogen were significantly related to the hydrologic landscape. Nitrogen concentrations tended to be higher in well-drained landscapes than in poorly drained ones. The highest instantaneous nitrogen yields occurred in well-drained landscapes during the winter. These yields were extrapolated over the part of the study area draining to Chesapeake Bay in order to provide a rough estimate of nitrogen load from base flow to the Bay and its estuarine tributaries. This estimate was compared to an estimate made by extrapolating from an existing long-term monitoring station. The load estimate from the stream survey data was 5 ± 10⁶ kg of N per year, which was about four times the estimate, made from the existing long-term monitoring station. The stream-survey estimate of base flow represents about 40 percent of the total nitrogen load that enters the Bay and estuarine tributaries from all sources in the study area.     

Comparative effects of a tree crop (cocoa) and shifting cultivation on a forest soil in Nigeria

Summary This study examines the organic matter and nutrient levels in soils under a 26-year old cocoa plantation and shifting cultivation farmlands cropped with cassava and maize, in Nigeria. The characteristics of soils under the two contrasting agricultural modes were compared with those of soils under rain forest, in order to infer the differential effects. Relative to the forest levels, the soil organic matter and nutrient levels were not substantially reduced in soils under plantations of cocoa. This is largely because cocoa plantations replicate forest conditions. In contrast, organic matter and nutrient levels were much lower in shifting cultivation farmlands. This is attributable to the fact that the crops of cassava and maize have a low ground cover, they generate relatively small amounts of litter and so do not replicate forest conditions. Measures which might be adopted to conserve soil organic matter and nutrient status during shifting cultivation methods are discussed.Dr A.O. Aweto is a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Geography where Mr O.A. Obe was, until recently, a research worker.     

Modeling macropore flow effects on pesticide leaching: inverse parameter estimation using microlysimeters

Macropore flow is a key factor determining pesticide fate, but models accounting for this process need parameters that cannot be easily measured. This study was conducted to investigate the use of inverse techniques to estimate parameters controlling macropore flow and pesticide fate in the dual-permeability model MACRO. Undisturbed columns were sampled at three landscape positions (hilltop, slope, hollow) with contrasting texture and organic carbon content. Transient leaching experiments were performed for an anionic tracer and the herbicide MCPA (4-chloro-2methylphenoxy acetic acid) during a 4-mo period, first under natural rainfall, and then under controlled irrigation in the laboratory. The tracer breakthrough for the liner-textured soil from the hilltop showed strong evidence of macropore flow, resulting in a rapid leaching of MCPA, while leaching was minimal from the organic-rich hollow soil, since macropore flow was weaker and adsorption stronger. The MACRO model was linked to the inverse modeling program SUFI (Sequential Uncertainty Fitting) to enable calibration of nine key model parameters. Based on calculated model efficiencies, MACRO-SUFI gave generally good predictions of water movement and tracer and pesticide transport, although some errors were attributed to difficulties in simulating the effects of soil moisture on degradation and the timing of water outflows. Even after calibration, significant uncertainties remained for some key parameters controlling macropore flow. Nevertheless, the parameter estimates were significantly different between landscape positions and could also be related to basic soil properties. The posterior uncertainty ranges could probably be reduced with a more exhaustive sampling of the parameter space and improved experimental designs.     

Statistical Models to Predict and Assess Spatial and Temporal Low‐Flow Variability in New England Rivers and Streams

In the northern hemisphere, summer low flows are a key attribute defining both quantity and quality of aquatic habitat. I developed one set of models for New England streams/rivers predicting July/August median flows averaged across 1985–2015 as a function of weather, slope, % imperviousness, watershed storage, glacial geology, and soils. These models performed better than most United States Geological Survey models for summer flows developed at a statewide scale. I developed a second set of models predicting interannual differences in summer flows as a function of differences in air temperature, precipitation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, and lagged NAO. Use of difference equations eliminated the need for transformations and accounted for serial autocorrelations at lag 1. The models were used in sequence to estimate time series for monthly low flows and for two derived flow metrics (tenth percentile [Q10] and minimum 3‐in‐5 year average flows). The first metric is commonly used in assessing risk to low‐flow conditions over time, while the second has been correlated with increased probability of localized extinctions for brook trout. The flow metrics showed increasing trends across most of New England for 1985–2015. However, application of summer flow models with average and extreme climate projections to the Taunton River, Massachusetts, a sensitive watershed undergoing rapid development, projected that low‐flow metrics will decrease over the next 50 years.     

Transport of di(2-ethylhexyl)phthalate (DEHP) applied with sewage sludge to undisturbed and repacked soil columns

Municipal sewage sludge is often used on arable soils as a source of nitrogen and phosphorus, but it also contains organic contaminants that may be leached to the ground water. Di(2-ethylhexyl)phthalate (DEHP) is a priority pollutant that is present in sewage sludge in ubiquitous amounts. Column experiments were performed on undisturbed soil cores (20-cm depth x 20-cm diameter) with three different soil types: a sand, a loamy sand, and a sandy loam soil. Dewatered sewage sludge was spiked with 14C-labeled DEHP (60 mg kg(-1)) and bromide (5 g kg(-1)). Sludge was applied to the soil columns either as five aggregates, or homogeneously mixed with the surface layer. Also, two leaching experiments were performed with repacked soil columns (loamy sand and sandy loam soil). The DEHP concentrations in the effluent did not exceed 1.0 microg L(-1), and after 200 mm of outflow less than 0.5% of the applied amount was recovered in the leachate in all soils but the sandy loam soil with homogeneous sludge application (up to 3.4% of the applied amount recovered). In the absence of macropore flow, DEHP in the leachate was primarily sorbed to mobilized dissolved organic macromolecules (DOM, 30.3 to 81.3%), while 2.4 to 23.6% was sorbed to mobilized mineral particles. When macropore flow occurred, this changed to 16.5 to 37.4% (DOM) and 36.9 to 40.6% (mineral particles), respectively. The critical combination for leaching of considerable amounts of DEHP was homogeneous sludge application and a continuous macropore structure.     

Contaminant Retention Potential of Forested Filter Strips Established as SMZs in the Piedmont of Georgia1

Abstract: It is common practice in the United States and elsewhere to maintain vegetated filter strips adjacent to streams to retain contaminants in surface runoff. Most research has evaluated contaminant retention in managed agricultural field strips, while relatively few studies have quantified retention in forested filter strips, particularly for dissolved contaminants. Plot‐scale overland flow experiments were conducted to evaluate the efficiency of natural forested filter strips established as streamside management zones (SMZs) for retaining phosphorus (P), atrazine, and picloram transported in runoff. Retention was evaluated for five different slope classes: 1‐2, 5‐7, 10‐12, 15‐17, and 20‐22%; two cover conditions: undisturbed forest floor (O horizon intact) and forest floor removed by raking; and two periods with contrasting soil moisture conditions: summer‐dry and winter‐wet season. Surface flow was collected at 0, 2, 4, 6, and 10 m within the filter strip to evaluate changes in solution concentration as it moved through the O horizon and the surface soil horizon mixing zone. On average, a 10 m length of forested SMZ with an undisturbed forest floor reduced initial solution concentration of total dissolved P by 51%, orthophosphate P by 49%, atrazine by 28%, and picloram by 5%. Percentages of mass retention through infiltration of water plus concentration reductions in runoff were 64% for total dissolved P, 62% for orthophosphate P, 47% for atrazine, and 28% for picloram for undisturbed forest floor conditions. Lower retention occurred following forest floor removal, particularly for P. Average dissolved P retention was 16% lower following forest floor removal. For undisturbed sites, differences in retention were more closely related to forest floor depth than to slope or antecedent soil moisture. These results indicate that forested SMZ filter strips provide a significant measure of surface water protection from dissolved P and herbicide delivery to surface water.     

Modeling Effects of Natural Flow Restoration on Metals Fate and Transport in a Mountain Stream Impacted by Mine Waste1

Abstract: The effects of natural flow restoration on metals fate and transport in the Upper Tenmile Creek Watershed, Montana, were modeled using the Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). This 50‐km² watershed has over 150 historic abandoned mines, including mine waste rock and tailings, as well as adits discharging acid mine drainage, and is the primary drinking water supply for the City of Helena. Water supply diversions almost completely dewater some stream reaches during summer low flows, but the city is considering a new drinking water source and restoration of natural flows in Tenmile Creek as part of acid mine drainage remediation and broader aquatic habitat restoration. One dimensional steady‐state simulation of total recoverable cadmium, copper, lead, and zinc in the mainstem was performed, and the model was calibrated to June 2000 base‐flow data. Representative low‐flows in August and high‐flow snowmelt conditions in June were modeled using mean monthly natural flow estimates from the U.S. Geological Survey and representative USEPA metals concentrations data. The modeling showed that total recoverable metals concentrations, and especially loads, can vary significantly among input locations and over time in the watershed. Some data gaps limit evaluation of variability and increase uncertainty in several locations. Model results indicated, however, that natural low‐ and high‐flow restoration by itself can reduce some metals concentrations in the mainstem compared to June 2000 values, which were influenced by significant water diversion. Some values (such as Zn) may still exceed standards during natural August low flow due to the remaining high concentrations and loads in the primary inputs to the mainstem. Others (such as Cu) can increase during high flow due to remaining mine waste sources and loading of particulate Cu associated with erosion and transport of solids. Greater than 50% reduction in concentrations and loads from some of the main tributaries may be necessary to meet all standards, especially for potential particulate loads with higher flows in June.     

Implications of Land Use Changes on Carbon Dynamics and Sequestration—Evaluation from Forestry Datasets, India

Forests and soils are a major sink of carbon, and land use changes can affect the magnitude of above ground and below ground carbon stores and the net flux of carbon between the land and the atmosphere. Studies on methods for examining the future consequences of changes in patterns of land use change and carbon flux gains importance, as they provide different options for CO₂ mitigation strategies. In this study, a simulation approach combining Markov chain processes and carbon pools for forests and soils has been implemented to study the carbon flows over a period of time. Markov chains have been computed by converting the land use change and forestry data of India from 1997 to 1999 into a matrix of conditional probabilities reflecting the changes from one class at time t to another class time t+1. Results from Markov modeling suggested Indian forests as a potential sink for 0.94 Gt carbon, with an increase in dense forest area of about 75.93 Mha and decrease of about 3.4 Mha and 5.0 Mha in open and scrub forests, if similar land use changes that occurred during 1997–1999 would continue. The limiting probabilities suggested 34.27 percent as dense forest, 6.90 as open forest, 0.4 percent mangrove forest, 0.1 percent scrub and 58 percent as non-forest area. Although Indian forests are found to be a potential carbon sink, analysis of results from transition probabilities for different years till 2050 suggests that, the forests will continue to be a source of about 20.59 MtC to the atmosphere. The implications of these results in the context of increasing anthropogenic pressure on open and scrub forests and their contribution to carbon source from land use change and forestry sector are discussed. Some of the mitigation aspects to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from land use change and forestry sector in India are also reviewed in the study.