Improving occupancy estimation when two types of observational error occur: non-detection and species misidentification

Efforts to draw inferences about species occurrence frequently account for false negatives, the common situation when individuals of a species are not detected even when a site is occupied. However, recent studies suggest the need to also deal with false positives, which occur when species are misidentified so that a species is recorded as detected when a site is unoccupied. Bias in estimators of occupancy, colonization, and extinction can be severe when false positives occur. Accordingly, we propose models that simultaneously account for both types of error. Our approach can be used to improve estimates of occupancy for study designs where a subset of detections is of a type or method for which false positives can be assumed to not occur. We illustrate properties of the estimators with simulations and data for three species of frogs. We show that models that account for possible misidentification have greater support (lower AIC for two species) and can yield substantially different occupancy estimates than those that do not. When the potential for misidentification exists, researchers should consider analytical techniques that can account for this source of error, such as those presented here.     

Consensus building during nest-site selection in honey bee swarms: the expiration of dissent

This study addresses a question that lies at the heart of understanding how the scouts in a honey bee swarm achieve unanimity in their dances, and so reach agreement in their choice of a future nest site: what causes the scouts that perform dances for the non-chosen sites to stop dancing for these sites? One possibility is that a scout stops dancing for a non-chosen site only after she follows a lively dance for another site, such as the site that is ultimately chosen. This hypothesis is contradicted by the finding that 23 out of 27 scouts (in 6 swarms) that danced initially for a non-chosen site stopped their dancing before they followed a dance for another site. Evidently, a scout that supports initially one of the non-chosen sites is likely to withdraw her support for this site even before she learns about another site. What causes her to do so? Close examination of the behavior of scouts revealed that they reduce the strength of their dancing (waggle runs/return to the swarm) for a given site over consecutive returns to the swarm. On average, the pattern of this reduction in dancing is strikingly linear, which suggests that it arises from an internal, neurophysiological process that automatically drives down a scout's motivation to dance for a site. Other results suggest that scouts from inferior sites start their dancing less strongly, and so cease their dancing more rapidly, than do scouts from superior sites. If so, then during the consensus-building process of the scouts, it is the support (the dancing) for inferior sites that is most likely to die out while it is the support for a superior site that is most likely to prevail.     

A Geochemical and Biological Basis for Marine Sediment Quality Guidelines

This document describes a basis for the establishment of marine sediment quality guidelines for regulatory applications. It outlines a geochemical basis for identifying potential anomalies in the presence of inorganic contaminants in marine sediments and a biological or ecotoxicological basis for determining concentrations unlikely to result in adverse biological effects. These approaches are discussed in an exploratory fashion. It is intended that both approaches could be combined in a manner that takes account of sedimentary nature and composition as a conceptual and practical approach to the establishment of guidelines for regulatory applications associated with the protection of the marine environment.     

Priority-Setting Tool Applied to Canada's Landbirds Based on Concern and Responsibility for Species

Abstract: As a contribution to Partners in Flight–Canada, the Canadian Wildlife Service developed a ranking system to help set priorities for landbird species. Two complementary species lists were generated: one with scores for "concern" representing vulnerability and population trend, and one for "responsibility" for regionally characteristic fauna. The concern score gave equal weight to vulnerability, a composite score based on abundance and breadth of range, and population trend, because its purpose was to give early warning of potential problems. Responsibility scores were scale-free and were assigned for the season in which the species is most abundant. Other systems for identifying species of concern may be more appropriate for other jurisdictions or organisms, but the responsibility ranking is widely applicable. This system is a coarse filter that generates preliminary ranks; additional information should be considered in deciding how to allocate scarce resources for conservation. Unrefined results are nonetheless useful for a variety of purposes, as illustrated by the scores for Canadian landbirds. About 25% of Canada's high-responsibility species are also of high concern. These high-concern species are not associated with specific habitats or migration patterns. Conservation of species ranking high on concern and responsibility merits cooperation with the United States and Mexico in particular. The scores identified improved monitoring as a priority conservation activity for Canada.     

The Case for Diminishing Marginal Existence Values

This study addresses the debate over sensitivity of existence values measured by contingent valuation to scope tests. We reconcile much of the debate within one theoretical model. If marginal WTP for existence goods is diminishing, then a study that tested for sensitivity to scope over a range for which marginal WTP is high would be more likely to detect sensitivity to scope than a study that focused on a range for which marginal WTP is much lower. An empirical model demonstrates this point for existence value of remote wilderness parks. These results have significant implications for future contingent valuation work.     

Coal rejects — a wasted resource?

The paper outlines potential uses for coal washery rejects. It considers in detail the use of fluidized-bed combustion as a means of lessening rejects disposal problems, as a method of recovering energy for drying, steam raising and electricity production and as a source of ash as a substitute for natural aggregate. Considerable technical information is now available on the use of fluidized beds for these purposes and the paper concludes that it is appropriate to consider a more detailed, site-specific, evaluation.     

A Geochemical and Biological Basis for Marine Sediment Quality Guidelines

This document describes a basis for the establishment of marine sediment quality guidelines for regulatory applications. It outlines a geochemical basis for identifying potential anomalies in the presence of inorganic contaminants in marine sediments and a biological or ecotoxicological basis for determining concentrations unlikely to result in adverse biological effects. These approaches are discussed in an exploratory fashion. It is intended that both approaches could be combined in a manner that takes account of sedimentary nature and composition as a conceptual and practical approach to the establishment of guidelines for regulatory applications associated with the protection of the marine environment.     

酶联免疫吸附分析法测定苯并(a)芘和多氯联苯

对苯并(a)芘作了五种不同的化学修饰,并与载体蛋白交联,制备出十四种单克隆抗体.经单克隆抗体的筛选和实验条件的优化,建立了测定苯并(a)芘的酶联免疫吸附分析法.以4,4'-二氯联苯为测定多氯联苯的酶联免疫吸附分析法的起始物,作了二种化学修饰,制备出九种多克隆抗体,建立了以羊抗多氯联苯抗体为基础的酶联免疫吸附分析法,并用于土壤中多氯联苯的测定.     

Values and willingness-to-pay for sustainability-certified mobile phones

ABSTRACT

This study investigated whether endorsement of personal values is associated with willingness to pay more for mobile phones with an environmental or social sustainability label. Participants were students in Sweden, Norway and Germany. A self-report inventory was used to measure willingness to pay and the importance attached to values of Schwartz’s circular model. In Sweden and Norway, participants were willing to pay, on average, 18% extra for a mobile phone with labels for environmental or social sustainability. In Germany, the corresponding share was 12%. To strive for self-enhancement values, that is, social status and prestige, as well as control and dominance over people and resources, was associated with a lower willingness to pay for mobile phones with labels for environmental or social sustainability in all three countries. Furthermore, women were willing to pay more than men for mobile phones with both kinds of sustainability labels. In Sweden and Norway, participants were, on average, willing to pay more for a mobile phone with a label for social sustainability compared to a mobile phone with a label for environmental sustainability.     

Mathematical modelling of a fish pond ecosystem

A mathematical model is constructed for a fish breeding pond for carp, silver carp and bighead. The model is a system of ordinary differential equations describing the material transformations in the ecosystem. It allows a choice of optimal regimes of the aeration, feeding and fertilization of a pond for different climatic conditions in order to maximize the yield.     

转基因生物风险评估和管理的国家能力建设的探讨

转基因生物风险评估和管理的国家能力建设的内容,包括机构、机制、专家知识、环境监测以及信息收集和交流等。风险评估和管理的能力建设必须根据本国生物技术研究和应用水平、资金、信息以及人员数量和素质来确定其优先领域、行动和项目。目前,中国转基因生物风险评估和管理的国家能力建设工作亟待开展的有:成立国家生物安全委员会;建立转基因生物风险评估和管理的制度以及公众参与的机制;提高技术人员和管理者在生态学、遗传学和风险评估方法学等方面的专家技能;制定转基因生物的环境监测规划;建立有关转基因生物的环境监测网络和基地;新建一批生物安全数据库和信息库     

Globaler Vertrag zur Regelung von POPs: Die Stockholm Konvention

The success of the negotiations on the POPs Convention after the failure of the negotiations over the climate protocol in The Hague in late November is an important result for international action to protect the earth from damage by chemicals. It shows the countries’ real commitment to find compromises for protection of the environment and human health and for the restoration of damaged ecosystems on our planet. It deserves to be highlighted that all participants — not only the industrialized countries but also developing countries as well as environmental organizations and the (chemical) industry — regard the conclusion of this convention as a success and that a broad basis for joint action has thus been created. The convention is a signal also because of its useful contents, which includes instruments for the total elimination of 12 POPs in the beginning and of further persistent organic pollutants at a later stage. The basis for a gradual reduction of the increasing pollution of the environment on a global scale is given by mechanisms for subjecting further POPs to the requirements of this Convention in the future.     

A model for approving and controlling sea water pollution for recreational activity

A model for assessing approval of a beach for recreational water activity was proposed. The model is based upon a sanitary survey together with intensive microbiological monitoring three times a day, five times a week for a month. In highly populated areas, continuous surveys once a day, five days a week are needed in order to assure the cleanliness and safety of these beaches.

Due to our intensive monitoring system, we can assure that Tel‐Aviv has one of the cleanest beaches near a metropolitan area in the Mediterranean Sea.     

Physicochemical fingerprinting of thermal waters of Beira Interior region of Portugal

Mineral natural waters and spas have been used for therapeutic purposes for centuries, with Portugal being a very rich country in thermal waters and spas that are mainly distributed by northern and central regions where Beira Interior region is located. The use of thermal waters for therapeutic purposes has always been aroused a continuous interest, being dependent on physicochemical fingerprinting of this type of waters the indication for a treatment in a specific pathological condition. In the present work, besides a literature review about the physicochemical composition of the thermal waters of the Beira Interior region and its therapeutic indications, it was carried out an exhaustive multivariate analysis—principal component analysis and cluster analysis—to assess the correlation between different physicochemical parameters and the therapeutic indications claims described for these spas and thermal waters. These statistical methods used for data analysis enables classification of thermal waters compositions into different groups, regarding to the different variable selected, making possible an interpretation of variables affecting water compositions. Actually, Monfortinho and Longroiva are clearly quite different of the others, and Cró and Fonte Santa de Almeida appear together in all analysis, suggesting a strong resemblance between these waters. Thereafter, the results obtained allow us to demonstrate the role of major components of the studied thermal waters on a particular therapeutic purpose/indication and hence based on compositional and physicochemical properties partially explain their therapeutic qualities and beneficial effects on human health. This classification agreed with the results obtained for the therapeutic indications approved by the Portuguese National Health Authority and proved to be a valuable tool for the regional typology of mineral medicinal waters, constituting an important guide of the therapeutic armamentarium for well and specific-oriented pathological disturbs.     

Spatial pattern and ecological process in the coffee agroforestry system

The coffee agroforestry system provides an ideal platform for the study of spatial ecology. The uniform pattern of the coffee plants and shade trees allows for the study of pattern generation through intrinsic biological forces rather than extrinsic habitat patchiness. Detailed studies, focusing on a key mutualism between an ant (Azteca instabilis) and a scale insect (Coccus viridis), conducted in a 45-ha plot in a coffee agroforestry system have provided insights into (1) the quantitative evaluation of spatial pattern of the scale insect Coccus viridis on coffee bushes, (2) the mechanisms for the generation of patterns through the combination of local satellite ant nest formation and regional control from natural enemies, and (3) the consequences of the spatial pattern for the stability of predator-prey (host-parasitoid) systems, for a key coccinelid beetle preying on the scale insects and a phorid fly parasitoid parasitizing the ant.     

Nachhaltigkeit in der Pflanzenproduktion

Part I gives an overview on the origin and the development of the term “sustainability” in general and for agriculture in particular. This overview shows that the term “sustainability” is used widely in discussing ecological, social and economic aspects; however, there is no generally accepted definition for this term neither for the different aspects, nor for a concept including all the discussed aspects of “sustainability”. This makes a determination and practical implementation of the term “sustainability” difficult. Therefore a definition for a sustainable crop production from the ecological point of view is elaborated based on the discussion of the development of the term and on the identification of the most important applied aspects. This definition forms the basis for a methodological approach to the practical implementation of a sustainable crop production (»part II).     

Implications of different population model structures for management of threatened plants

Population viability analysis (PVA) is a reliable tool for ranking management options for a range of species despite parameter uncertainty. No one has yet investigated whether this holds true for model uncertainty for species with complex life histories and for responses to multiple threats. We tested whether a range of model structures yielded similar rankings of management and threat scenarios for 2 plant species with complex postfire responses. We examined 2 contrasting species from different plant functional types: an obligate seeding shrub and a facultative resprouting shrub. We exposed each to altered fire regimes and an additional, species‐specific threat. Long‐term demographic data sets were used to construct an individual‐based model (IBM), a complex stage‐based model, and a simple matrix model that subsumes all life stages into 2 or 3 stages. Agreement across models was good under some scenarios and poor under others. Results from the simple and complex matrix models were more similar to each other than to the IBM. Results were robust across models when dominant threats are considered but were less so for smaller effects. Robustness also broke down as the scenarios deviated from baseline conditions, likely the result of a number of factors related to the complexity of the species’ life history and how it was represented in a model. Although PVA can be an invaluable tool for integrating data and understanding species’ responses to threats and management strategies, this is best achieved in the context of decision support for adaptive management alongside multiple lines of evidence and expert critique of model construction and output.     

Parameterization of Albedo over Heterogeneous Surfaces in Coupled Land-Atmosphere Schemes for Environmental Modeling. Part I: Theoretical Background

In grid-based environmental models, the underlying surface consists of patches of solid and liquid parts and different plant communities, creating a very heterogeneous picture in the grid cell. In these cases, numerical modelers usually use a simple arithmetic average to determine the grid-cell albedo, a key variable in the parameterization of the land-surface radiative transfer over the grid cell. The object of this paper is to consider the assumptions for aggregating the albedo over a very heterogeneous surface where various surfaces occur at different heights, and, then propose a method for deriving a general expression for it. The suggested expression for the albedo is compared with the conventional approach, for the two-patches grid-cell with a simple geometrical distribution and different heights of its components. A numerical test is performed to compare the two approaches by numerical simulation of the evolution of the surface temperature over the particular grid-cell. Specifically, a one-dimensional land-surface model was applied to an isolated rocky grid-cell with a hole in the center; the model was forced with meteorological observations taken on July 17, 1999 in Philadelphia, PA.     

Trade‐offs and efficiencies in optimal budget‐constrained multispecies corridor networks

Conservation biologists recognize that a system of isolated protected areas will be necessary but insufficient to meet biodiversity objectives. Current approaches to connecting core conservation areas through corridors consider optimal corridor placement based on a single optimization goal: commonly, maximizing the movement for a target species across a network of protected areas. We show that designing corridors for single species based on purely ecological criteria leads to extremely expensive linkages that are suboptimal for multispecies connectivity objectives. Similarly, acquiring the least‐expensive linkages leads to ecologically poor solutions. We developed algorithms for optimizing corridors for multispecies use given a specific budget. We applied our approach in western Montana to demonstrate how the solutions may be used to evaluate trade‐offs in connectivity for 2 species with different habitat requirements, different core areas, and different conservation values under different budgets. We evaluated corridors that were optimal for each species individually and for both species jointly. Incorporating a budget constraint and jointly optimizing for both species resulted in corridors that were close to the individual species movement‐potential optima but with substantial cost savings. Our approach produced corridors that were within 14% and 11% of the best possible corridor connectivity for grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) and wolverines (Gulo gulo), respectively, and saved 75% of the cost. Similarly, joint optimization under a combined budget resulted in improved connectivity for both species relative to splitting the budget in 2 to optimize for each species individually. Our results demonstrate economies of scale and complementarities conservation planners can achieve by optimizing corridor designs for financial costs and for multiple species connectivity jointly. We believe that our approach will facilitate corridor conservation by reducing acquisition costs and by allowing derived corridors to more closely reflect conservation priorities.     

城市可持续发展评价的分指数及综合指数公式

在指标按特征分类的基础上，提出了城市可持续发展评价分类指标的分指数公式和多类别组合的综合指数公式。应用遗传算法对公式中的参数进行优化，得到简单而适用的城市可持续发展评价模型。模型应用于全国“七五”，“八五”可持续发展评价结果与实际分析结果一致。该模型具有可比性强，通用性好和简单，实用的特点。