Mother Nature versus human nature: public compliance with evacuation and quarantine

Effectively controlling the spread of contagious illnesses has become a critical focus of disaster planning. It is likely that quarantine will be a key part of the overall public health strategy utilised during a pandemic, an act of bioterrorism or other emergencies involving contagious agents. While the United States lacks recent experience of large-scale quarantines, it has considerable accumulated experience of large-scale evacuations. Risk perception, life circumstance, work-related issues, and the opinions of influential family, friends and credible public spokespersons all play a role in determining compliance with an evacuation order. Although the comparison is not reported elsewhere to our knowledge, this review of the principal factors affecting compliance with evacuations demonstrates many similarities with those likely to occur during a quarantine. Accurate identification and understanding of barriers to compliance allows for improved planning to protect the public more effectively.     

大型公共场所人员疏散模型研究--考虑个体特性和从众行为

在引入元胞自动机概念的基础上,模拟分析了紧急情况下人员的疏散行为,并提出了一个新的疏散模型.该模型考虑了人员的个体差异和从众行为,并重点分析了各种情况下从众行为对疏散行为和疏散时间的影响.结果表明,从众行为与疏散场所中的人员密度、视野范围大小等都有很大关系,一般而言,从众行为将延缓人员疏散的时间.     

一种新型的灾害救助撤离路线分析方法——基于混合空间数据的研究

灾害应急响应业务常面临数据不完备、应急措施适时性强等问题,要求所实现的应急响应方法灵活程度高,易于操作。以灾害救助撤离路线分析为例,探讨了如何通过混合数据的使用达到降低数据准备难度的目的,通过栅格空间分析的使用达到简化分析过程的目的,通过模型的设计实现达到方便业务功能集成更新的目的。设计并实现了路线分析的技术流程;基于重用思想定义业务模型,应用组件对象模型技术对路线分析方法进行了封装。所实现的业务模型证实了技术流程的有效性,具有较高运行效率。     

Heat-health warnings in regional Australia: examining public perceptions and responses

ABSTRACT

Heatwaves are an increasing environmental hazard and an important public health issue in Australia. Heat-health warnings are being adopted widely to promote protective behaviours, but there has been limited evaluation of public responses. This study used a household telephone survey to examine public attitudes and responses to heat-health warnings in regional areas in two Australian states, South Australia and Victoria. The results indicate a high level of recall of heat-health warnings and awareness about managing extreme heat. Respondents viewed heat-health warnings positively, but the effects on behaviour change were variable. Our findings suggest that the warnings may be reinforcing existing protective behaviours more than promoting change. Perceptions of heat risks were higher among women than men, but lower in older age groups. Evidence of this nature is important to identify ways to improve heat-health warnings and more effectively address the public health risks.     

Landslides, risk and decision-making in Kinnaur District: bridging the gap between science and public opinion

In November 1989 a major landslide destroyed the link road to the village of Sapni in Kinnaur District of Himachal Pradesh in the Indian Himalaya. Although aware of the risk of further landslide activity, the community has campaigned successfully for reconstruction of the road. Decisions of this kind take place at the local level, through village institutions and open debate, with good feedback between villages and district government authorities. In this way a balance is established between meeting more immediate needs (such as domestic water supply, irrigation, road access) and taking acceptable risks. Using the Sapni landslide as a case study, this paper explores the issue of 'acceptable risk', and looks at the existing strategy for risk and disaster reduction in the district.     

Tears,fears and cheers: responses to the post‐disaster school relocation policy in China

This paper reports on the results of a qualitative study on the responses of Chinese school children in one junior middle school and their parents to China's post‐disaster school relocation policy. The sample comprised 22 pairs of parent–child dyads and two pupils whose parents could not be contacted. The study results were reported using Chambers and Wedel's (2009) conceptual framework, which delineates the fundamental elements of a policy. Content analysis was used to generate themes related to policy elements, such as goals, benefits and services. Both repetitive themes and idiosyncratic perspectives were reported so as to present a diversity of views. Despite adjustment difficulties and administrative problems reported by the study participants, the policy attention given to the rapid restoration of formal schooling for children was generally appreciated. The move back to the new school was greeted with cheer.     

灾害避难行为的模拟模型研究（I）——基本模型的建立与计算机实现

灾害避难行为的研究,不仅直接有助于建筑物内部构造的设计、物件的布局、避难诱导装置的设计,而且也是加强市民减灾意识培养的基础,考虑到灾害实验的危险性和避难行为的不可重复性,建立计算机模拟模型来探求避难行为的规律,已成为对其进行研究的最佳途径,本文重点介绍了避难行为模拟模型建立的原则,模型的构成,基本假设,并给出了计算机袂现的途径,为进一步为实例研究创造条件。     

灾害避难行为的模拟模型研究(Ⅲ)--双人单房情况的避难模拟

研究突发性灾害下的避难行为,有利于提高公众的防灾减灾意识和灾害抵御能力,在当前城市防灾减灾中具有重要的理论和现实意义.利用计算机模拟仿真试验可以多次重复、简单易行的优点,在对现有的计算机仿真模型进行改进的基础上,开展了不可视环境下双人单房任意方向下的灾害避难行为仿真模拟研究.结果表明,在双人单房的情况下,两人分头避难模式优于两人共同避难模式;同时,进一步的扩展模拟还表明,两人在分头避难又相遇后,进行正确交流也是十分有益的,这往往可以缩短发现避难出口的时间.     

When information becomes action: drivers of individuals' trust in broadcast versus peer‐to‐peer information in disaster response

Information and communications technology (ICT), primarily mobile telephones and social media, is increasingly important in crisis and disaster response in developing countries. This fact raises an important question: in an information environment that includes traditional media such as radio and television, who are the people that trust information from ICT enough to act on it during a disaster? Drawing on a case study of and original survey data from the island nation of the Independent State of Samoa, this paper yields insights into who uses new technologies, particularly mobile telephones, to make decisions at the local level during crises such as natural disasters, as well as the socio‐political factors that motivate their behaviour. The results add to the growing pool of knowledge on utilisation of ICT and new technologies in developing countries for disaster response, and provide practical information on the social and political factors that lead people to trust different information sources and media.     

灾害避难行为的模拟模型研究（II）——单人单房情况的避难模拟

在我们已建立的避难行为模拟的初步模型的基础上,为了检验该模拟模型的实用性,就单人单房避难情况进行了模拟。检验了常见的墙移动,随朵移动、大力向移动等３种避难行为模式的避难效果,文中给出了模拟过程中各种参数的计算和设定方法,模拟结果表明：在较宽阔的房层内避难时,触墙移动是最有效的避难途径,在对单人单房避难模拟进行总结的基础上,本文还探讨了上述模型中存在的主要问题及其进一步完善的可能性。