以科学为基础的化学品管理战略

针对欧洲化学品管理系统REACH的数据要求，本文提出许多改进建议．要实施根据物质的有害作用进行分类的当前标准，这些数据要求显得不足．在数据收集中以产量作为优先制定的标准，这是成问题的．提出了优先制定机制的三项替代建议：物质的化学性质；低层次检测的结果；对自动检测的激励．一个新的分类办法（未充分研究）亦被提出．在这个办法里，物质将根据警示标识予以鉴别．     

被动加标在水生生态风险评价中的应用——以多氯联苯分配系数的测定为例

准确的水生生态风险评价需要可靠的毒性数据,而其获取要求在一定时间范围内,水体中污染物的浓度保持恒定。对疏水性有机污染物进行水体生物毒性测试时,通常采用有机溶剂加标,然而该方式可能因为污染物的挥发和降解、容器壁吸附、生物摄取等问题,水体中污染物浓度持续下降,导致污染物的浓度-效应关系难以明确。近期为了克服这些问题,被动加标用于替代溶剂加标,通过污染物在加标体系中平衡分配来维持精确和恒定的水体浓度,同时还可通过测定加标聚合物中污染物的浓度来监测水体浓度。首先介绍了被动加标方法及其材料选择,讨论了该方法在生态风险评价中的主要应用,包括分配系数的测定、体外细胞测试、体内生物积累及毒性测试,以及沉积物毒性评价等。然后,以测定代表污染物多氯联苯在聚二甲基硅氧烷与水间的分配系数为例,详细说明被动加标的操作流程。最后,讨论了被动加标方法的优缺点,并对其在水生生态风险中的应用前景进行了展望。     

持久性有机污染物在陆生食物链中的生物积累放大模拟研究进展

借助环境模型模拟污染物在多介质间的迁移、归趋行为和生物积累放大,既是生态和健康风险的评估基础,又是研究污染物环境过程的一种重要的方法和手段。利用生物积累模型研究持久性有机污染物(POPs)在食物链中的生物富集和生物积累放大对于生态及健康风险评价具有重要意义。重点介绍了国内外关于POPs在陆生食物链中的各类生物积累模型及应用,包括原理、模型的特点和优势及不足之处,并对模型的改进提出了相应的建议。基础环境参数不足、实验数据缺乏和物种特异性是制约此类模型发展的主要原因。     

对风险投资中若干问题的探析

风险投资或称为风险资本、创业资本,是指以股权、准股权或具有附带条件的债仅形式投资于新颖或未经试用技术项目或未来具有高度不确定性的项目,并愿意为所投资的项目或企业提供管理或经营服务,期望通过项目的高成长率并最终以某种方式出售产权以取得高额中长期收益的一种投资方式.风险投资经过了将近20 a发展,从发展实践看,还是比较慢的,与国外先进的风险投资业相比,我国的风险投资业还存在着许多方面的问题急需解决.本文针对风险投资中现存的问题,对风险投资中的组织形式的选择、政府的定位、融资的解决、人才的管理及资本退出机制的确定等问题进行了探讨,并提出了相应的解决方法.     

扩大和加速化学品风险评价：国际活动

风险评价是化学品环境无害管理的首要步骤．然而，对于很多大量生产的化学品来说，进行风险评价所需要的一些重要数据是缺乏的．风险不仅决定于该化学品到底有多毒，而且也决定于公众暴露，职业暴露和环境暴露、本文调查了现有合作的国际风险评价活动，也考察了这些活动的未来方向．     

开创广东土肥工作新局面

本文从当前形势发展的要求出发，针对目前广东农业面临的各种危机，阐述了土肥工作在今后的农业生产中仍具有重要的地位，呼吁今后一定要加强土肥工作；明确提出了今年广东土肥工作的主要任务和要求，强调要力争开创广东土肥工作的新局面．     

高校内部审计与质量控制

内部审计工作是一种组织内部的独立客观的监督和评价活动，它通过审查和评价经营活动及内部控制的适当性、合法性和有效性来促进组织目标的实现．近年来，内部审计在加强高校经济管理、促进提高效益等方面发挥着越来越大的作用，这在客观上对内涵建设（质量控制）提出了新的要求．本文运用质量控制理论，针对目前高校内部审计工作现状，围绕高校内部审计质量控制问题进行了分析和探讨．     

高职《特种经济动物养殖技术》课程设计研究

该文阐述了作者对《特种经济动物养殖技术》课程设计所进行的探索．以高职教育培养目标和人才市场需求为导向,设计课程目标;以行业发展为导向,设计课程内容;以职业岗位能力要求和工作项目为导向,设计课程结构．实践结果表明,该课程设计符合现代职业技术教育的要求,具有前沿性、科学性和职业性．参5．     

Water Consumption Habit in General Population of Shanghai and Beijing, China

饮用水是人体暴露于有毒物质的重要暴露源,为了定量描述饮用水中污染物对暴露人群所造成的危害,世界各国的科学家们对饮用水的健康风险评价做了大量的研究. 通常,健康风险评价需要污染物毒理学数据和暴露人群的暴露剂量数据. 目前,针对很多的有毒污染物,国际上已经建立了应用于健康风险评价的毒理学数据库,同时积累了大量可用的有效数据. 而对于暴露人群的暴露剂量数据,则是健康风险评价所要研究的重点. 正确估计暴露人群的暴露剂量需要消费者提供大量的消费信息. 例如,暴露人群每天消费的饮用水水量. 美国环保局(EPA)认为成人每天消耗的饮用水水量为2L·d-1,此外,饮用水的消耗量会随着暴露人群的身体活动状况和所处环境状况(温度,湿度等)的改变而改变. 目前,许多研究都是关于饮用水消费信息的,总体来讲这些研究结果基本上与美国环保局所采用的饮水消耗数据相一致. 需要说明的是中国居民有完全不同于西方人的饮用水消费方式,如果在进行中国居民饮用水健康风险评价过程中应用美国环保局的假设会带来较大的不确定性. 饮用水健康风险评价工作在我国开展并不多,尤其缺少中国居民饮用水消费习惯的数据库. 这些客观条件使得在我国进行饮用水健康风险评价时只能从基础做起,积累有效的数据. 本研究以北京和上海两座城市居民为研究对象,2002年到2004年分冬夏两季分别进行了4次饮用水消费习惯调查. 研究采用随机入户方式(2004年至2005年),与中央电视台-索福瑞联合调查有限公司合作进行. 参加调查的家庭从中央电视台入户收视率调查的基础数据库中随机抽取,在抽取过程中兼顾了不同城区、年龄结构、知识结构、收入水平等因素. 研究表明,北京和上海居民冬夏两季的日均饮水量分别为2.2L·d-1、1.7L·d-1、2.0L·d-1和1.8L·d-1,这一结果和美国环保局的假设基本一致. 同时本研究考察了性别、年龄、职业和季节对应用水消费习惯的影响. 研究表明,日均饮水量随年龄的增加有增加的趋势,这一趋势在北京的夏季调查中趋势明显(p=0.01);男性的日均饮用水量大于女性,在上海冬季和夏季调查中均存在显著的差异(冬季：p=0.01;夏季：p=0.04);季节也同样影响被访者的日均饮水量,但是在4次调查中均未发现显著性差异. 在北京冬季和夏季的调查中均发现了工作地点对饮用水消费习惯的显著影响(夏季p=0.01 和冬季p=0.00). 研究同样考察了居民饮用水消费类型,调查结果表明,煮沸后的自来水是中国居民最主要的日常饮品(上海夏季：58.3%;上海冬季67.9%;北京夏季：42.7%;北京冬季：60.0%). 同时消费桶装纯净水的被访者也占有相当的比重(上海夏季：36.2%;上海冬季：24.7%;北京夏季：30.7%;北京冬季：60.0%). 研究同时表明,在中国居民的日常生活中牛奶和豆奶已经成为重要的日常饮品. 极少量的居民(北京夏季：10.7%;北京冬季5.7%;上海夏季1.2%;上海冬季0.6%)有直接饮用自来水的习惯. 研究表明滞留水(在自来水水管中滞留6h以上的自来水)是对人体健康影响最大的水,而在我们的调查中,中国居民几乎不直接饮用滞留水. 当前,饮用水健康风险评价在世界范围内蓬勃展开,但是这一技术在我国还处于起步阶段. 本研究作为饮用水健康风险评价的前期工作,为其在中国的进一步发展提供了基础性的数据.     

北京和上海市居民冬夏两季饮用水消费习惯

饮用水是人体暴露于有毒物质的重要暴露源,为了定量描述饮用水中污染物对暴露人群所造成的危害,世界各国的科学家们对饮用水的健康风险评价做了大量的研究.通常,健康风险评价需要污染物毒理学数据和暴露人群的暴露剂量数据.目前,针对很多的有毒污染物,国际上已经建立了应用于健康风险评价的毒理学数据库,同时积累了大量可用的有效数据.而对于暴露人群的暴露剂量数据,则是健康风险评价所要研究的重点.正确估计暴露人群的暴露剂量需要消费者提供大量的消费信息.例如,暴露人群每天消费的饮用水水量.美国环保局(EPA)认为成人每天消耗的饮用水水量为2L·d-1,此外,饮用水的消耗量会随着暴露人群的身体活动状况和所处环境状况(温度,湿度等)的改变而改变.目前,许多研究都是关于饮用水消费信息的,总体来讲这些研究结果基本上与美国环保局所采用的饮水消耗数据相一致.需要说明的是中国居民有完全不同于西方人的饮用水消费方式,如果在进行中国居民饮用水健康风险评价过程中应用美国环保局的假设会带来较大的不确定性.饮用水健康风险评价工作在我国开展并不多,尤其缺少中国居民饮用水消费习惯的数据库.这些客观条件使得在我国进行饮用水健康风险评价时只能从基础做起,积累有效的数据.本研究以北京和上海两座城市居民为研究对象,2002年到2004年分冬夏两季分别进行了4次饮用水消费习惯调查.研究采用随机入户方式(2004年至2005年),与中央电视台-索福瑞联合调查有限公司合作进行.参加调查的家庭从中央电视台入户收视率调查的基础数据库中随机抽取,在抽取过程中兼顾了不同城区、年龄结构、知识结构、收入水平等因素.研究表明,北京和上海居民冬夏两季的日均饮水量分别为2.2L·d-1、1.7L·d-1、2.0L·d-1和1.8L·d-1,这一结果和美国环保局的假设基本一致.同时本研究考察了性别、年龄、职业和季节对应用水消费习惯的影响.研究表明,日均饮水量随年龄的增加有增加的趋势,这一趋势在北京的夏季调查中趋势明显(p=0.01);男性的日均饮用水量大于女性,在上海冬季和夏季调查中均存在显著的差异(冬季:p=0.01;夏季:p=0.04);季节也同样影响被访者的日均饮水量,但是在4次调查中均未发现显著性差异.在北京冬季和夏季的调查中均发现了工作地点对饮用水消费习惯的显著影响(夏季p=0.01和冬季p=0.00).研究同样考察了居民饮用水消费类型,调查结果表明,煮沸后的自来水是中国居民最主要的日常饮品(上海夏季:58.3%;上海冬季67.9%;北京夏季:42.7%;北京冬季:60.0%).同时消费桶装纯净水的被访者也占有相当的比重(上海夏季:36.2%;上海冬季:24.7%;北京夏季:30.7%;北京冬季:60.0%).研究同时表明,在中国居民的日常生活中牛奶和豆奶已经成为重要的日常饮品.极少量的居民(北京夏季:10.7%;北京冬季5.7%;上海夏季1.2%;上海冬季0.6%)有直接饮用自来水的习惯.研究表明滞留水(在自来水水管中滞留6h以上的自来水)是对人体健康影响最大的水,而在我们的调查中,中国居民几乎不直接饮用滞留水.当前,饮用水健康风险评价在世界范围内蓬勃展开,但是这一技术在我国还处于起步阶段.本研究作为饮用水健康风险评价的前期工作,为其在中国的进一步发展提供了基础性的数据.     

The Mekong—applications of value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) simulation to the benefits,costs and consequences of water resources development in a large river basin

Conditional value at risk (CVaR) was developed as a coherent measure of expected loss given that actual loss exceeds some value at risk (VaR) threshold. To date the concept has been primarily used to support quantitative risk assessment for investment decisions and portfolio management, using stochastic financial models to minimise the risk of unacceptable monetary loss. Intriguingly, the models and concepts are potentially adaptable to water resources planning and operational problems. This paper explores the application of CVaR within the context of identifying the risk of macro-economic damage to the fishery resources of Tonle Sap given reduced volumes of flow on the mainstream Mekong during the flood season. Emphasis is placed on simulating the linkages between the seasonally available flows in the Mekong mainstream, Tonle Sap water levels, annual fish catch and its economic value.We present scenarios using real hydrological and fish catch data along with exploratory concepts of contingency fund costs in terms of national and international aid requirements. The objective is to estimate the potential economic loss at a prescribed level of probability and to illustrate how VaR and CVaR may be calculated in this context. We demonstrate the properties of these risk measures through their behaviour under continuous and discontinuous loss distributions. We show that CVaR has advantages over VaR even under a relatively simple modelling approach. In the case where a loss distribution has discontinuities, VaR is potentially a poor measure of risk as it can vary unacceptably with a small increase in probability level. CVaR is stable in these situations. Here we find that when the loss distribution is continuous the CVaR is only marginally higher than the VaR. However, for the more realistic model where the loss distribution is discontinuous, the CVaR is substantially greater.We demonstrate the potential use of these two risk measures on a simple set of models of the Tonle Sap fishery in Cambodia. The sustainability of this fishery is crucial to the country in order to avoid even further dependence on international donor aid. Estimating the financial risk to which the national government and potential aid donors might be exposed given any damage to the fishery is the essence of this exploratory study of VaR and CVaR.     

Two-compartment model of radionuclide accumulation into marine organisms. I. Accumulation from a medium of constant activity

The interpretation of kinetics of radionuclide accumulation into biological organisms can be performed by using the well-known multicompartment models. The application of a two-compartment model in the interpretation of radionuclide accumulation into marine organisms, when this does not markedly deplete the medium, is considered. It has been found that most of the loss experiments cannot be interpreted without the use of uptake data. The agreement between the uptake and loss parameters is discussed. Explicit expressions for different kinds of two-compartment models are evaluated. The interpretation of irreversible and other special cases is proposed.     

An Index of Risk as a Measure of Biodiversity Conservation Achieved through Land Reform

Abstract:  We measured the net progress of land reform in achieving a national policy goal for biodiversity conservation in the context of ongoing clearing of native vegetation and additions of land to a highly nonrepresentative (residual) reserve network, interior South Island, New Zealand. We used systematic conservation-planning approaches to develop a spatially explicit index of risk of biodiversity loss (RBL). The index incorporated information from national data sets that describe New Zealand's remaining indigenous land cover, legal protection, and land environments and modeled risk to biodiversity on the basis of stated assumptions about the effects of past habitat loss and legal protection. The index identified irreplaceable and vulnerable native habitats in lowland environments as the most at risk of biodiversity loss, and risk was correlated with the density of threatened plant records. To measure achievement, we used changes in the index that reflected gains made and opportunity costs incurred by legal protection and privatization. Application of the index to measure the difference made by land reform showed it had caused a net increase in the risk of biodiversity loss because most land vulnerable to habitat modification and rich in threatened plant species was privatized and land at least risk of biodiversity loss was protected. The application revealed that new high-elevation reserves did little to mitigate biodiversity decline, that privatization of low-elevation land further jeopardized the most vulnerable biodiversity in lowland native habitats, and that outcomes of land reform for biodiversity deteriorated over time. Further development of robust achievement measures is needed to encourage more accountable biodiversity conservation decisions.     

畜禽环境中抗生素的去除及其风险评估

抗生素作为饲料添加剂广泛应用于畜禽养殖业,造成养殖环境抗生素大量蓄积,尤其是在畜禽粪便中,长期的积累不仅污染养殖场内土壤环境,残留的抗生素还会随畜禽粪便进入周边水体及农田环境,威胁农作物及人体健康。目前,国内相关研究主要集中在抗生素的降解工艺及降解规律方面,而对其去除效率的影响因素及风险评价研究相对较少。笔者综述了国内外抗生素的降解转化及去除方式等的研究进展,并概述了抗生素在畜禽环境中的生态风险评估的研究现状,为抗生素的高效去除、风险预估及畜禽粪便资源化安全利用提供理论基础和技术支撑。     

Towards the development of an operational tool for oil spills management in the Algarve coast

Portugal is strongly vulnerable to sea hazards due to intense vessel traffic and sea conditions. The southwest region off the Iberian Peninsula lies in the main route from the Mediterranean and Southern Hemisphere to the Northern Europe, causing a ship concentration in a narrow band off Cape S?o Vicente. Tankers represent a significant part of the vessel traffic and the occurrence of oil spills cannot be disregarded. Cape S?o Vicente region is part of a Natural Park with 110 Km of coastline, integrated in the European Natura 2000 network and its socio-economic context is closely related with sea resources exploitation, particularly fishing and tourism. Recognizing the importance of accurate information systems for the decision making process in an oil spill situation, this work presents the development of an integrated tool to support the process in the Algarve coast. The system relies in a regional operational mathematical model based on the MOHID modelling system. The system core is composed by three models (3D hydrodynamics, wave and Lagrangian transport) all linked in the same system and exchanging information in real time. Oil advection and weathering processes are coupled to the Lagragian transport model. The overall operational system includes external operational data products as inputs, to ensure a successful validation of the results. The system is linked to stakeholders and response authorities using a geographic referenced database based on Mapserver technology that will include relevant information for oil spill management.     

Area-based assessment of extinction risk

Underpinning the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List is the assessment of extinction risk as determined by the size and degree of loss of populations. The IUCN system lists a species as Critically Endangered, Endangered, or Vulnerable if its population size declines 80%, 50%, or 30% within a given time frame. However, effective implementation of the system faces substantial challenges and uncertainty because geographic scale data on population size and long-term dynamics are scarce. I develop a model to quantify extinction risk using a measure based on a species' distribution, a much more readily obtained quantity. The model calculates the loss of the area of occupancy that is equivalent to the loss of a given proportion of a population. It is a very simple yet general model that has no free parameters and is independent of scale. The model predicted well the distributions of 302 tree species at a local scale and the distributions of 348 species of North American land birds. This area-based model provides a solution to the long-standing problem for IUCN assessments of lack of data on population sizes, and thus it will contribute to facilitating the quantification of extinction risk worldwide.     

Abfallwirtschaftskonzept im Rahmen eines Integrierten Umweltmanagementsystems

Economic regulations on recycling and respective waste disposal legislation will increasingly demand the realization of new waste management concepts. They do not stem from a ministerial goal in itself, but instead offen the enterprizes a chance to develop their own waste disposal strategies with a goal toward the future. In the course of an Intra-company analysis, this waste disposal concept must take the operative organization, the relevant processes and manufacturing techniques, the accumulation of waste in the cost centers as well as the waste disposal and utilization into consideration. Fundamental principles include the environmental regulations applicable to the enterprize in the form of both federal decress and injunctions. An environmental examination report demonstrates the methodical possiblities for stock-taking and makes it possible to identify the measures necessary for improving the operational waste disposal situation. The mandatory data acquisition and a feasible waste monitoring network can be used in the course of environmental management system for making an expert opinion by an independent, reputable environmental verifier.     

风险地图—环境风险管理的有效新工具

中国不断发生的重大环境突发事故使得环境风险管理提上了政府的议事日程,建立有效和实用的环境风险管理体系势在必行。近年来,风险地图已成为环境风险管理中迅速崛起的新领域。风险地图不但可以探讨污染物效应的空间特征,而且可作为风险可视化的重要工具。通过调研和分析大量文献,在描述了环境风险地图的功能、重要的风险地图类型基础上,以一个城市为例展示了风险图制作流程,最后,对环境风险地图在中国的应用和发展提出了建议。     

Effects of Human Activity on Global Extinction Risk

Both natural and anthropogenic factors are important in determining a species' risk of extinction. Little work has been done, however, to quantify the magnitude of current anthropogenic influences on the extinction process. The purpose of this study is to determine the extent to which measures of the intensity of human activity are related to the global variability of two measures of species' susceptibility to extinction. We observed six indices of human activities in 90 countries, and we tested their relationships to the proportion of threatened bird and mammal species in each country, as well as to mammalian population density. After correcting for area effects, latitudinal diversity gradients, and body size (for population density), 28 to 50% of the remaining variation was statistically attributable to anthropogenic variables. Different measures of anthropogenic influence were most closely related to extinction risk in birds and mammals. Human population density was the variable most closely related to the proportion of threatened bird species per country, whereas per capita GNP was more important for mammal species. Mammalian population density strongly correlates with the extent of protected area per country. Contrary to suggestions in earlier literature, our work does not support the hypothesis that habitat loss is a prime contributor to species loss because frequencies of threatened birds and mammals are not closely related to patterns of land use.