Comparing proximity measures of exposure to geostatistical estimates in environmental justice research

Abstract

Recent hazard literature frequently refers to sustainability and resilience as the guiding principles behind effective hazard planning. Certainly, structurally organizing communities to minimize effects of disasters and to recover quickly by restoring socio-economic vitality are laudable goals. However, while anticipating such outcomes is relatively easy from a theoretical standpoint, practical implementation of comprehensive plans is much more elusive. Indeed, relationships between community sustainability/resilience and hazards are complex involving many social, economic, political and physical factors. A conceptual framework for analysis of sustainability and resilience, then, is described based on three theoretical models, a mitigation model, a recovery model, and a structural-cognitive model. This framework is examined using data from Florida, USA, where local context, social and political activities, and economic concerns present difficulties in application. The question remains, therefore, to what extent can communities truly develop sustainable and resilient characteristics?     

Social media and disasters: a functional framework for social media use in disaster planning,response, and research

A comprehensive review of online, official, and scientific literature was carried out in 2012–13 to develop a framework of disaster social media. This framework can be used to facilitate the creation of disaster social media tools, the formulation of disaster social media implementation processes, and the scientific study of disaster social media effects. Disaster social media users in the framework include communities, government, individuals, organisations, and media outlets. Fifteen distinct disaster social media uses were identified, ranging from preparing and receiving disaster preparedness information and warnings and signalling and detecting disasters prior to an event to (re)connecting community members following a disaster. The framework illustrates that a variety of entities may utilise and produce disaster social media content. Consequently, disaster social media use can be conceptualised as occurring at a number of levels, even within the same disaster. Suggestions are provided on how the proposed framework can inform future disaster social media development and research.     

管网系统的抗震问题述评

本文提出了生命线系统的抗震准则,并对可靠性准则的建立和生命线系统最小运行准则的确定进行了讨论.本文系统地阐述了生命线系统之一的管网系统的抗震问题,指出管网系统震害评估和震后修复所包括的内容,并对管网系统抗震研究的现状以及存在的问题进行了评述。     

综合风险管理的梯形架构

首次提出了综合风险管理的梯形架构,它从下往上分别由风险意识块、量化分析块和优化决策块构成.风险意识块涉及文化观念、社会结构和立法等,是综合风险管理的社会基础;量化分析块涉及风险分析的所有科学和技术之研究内容,是综合风险管理的科学支撑;优化决策块涉及风险管理的决策体系和目标,是综合风险管理的终端动作部分.梯形架构是一个社会架构,属社会组织学范畴,支撑其运行的是一系列有机组成的物理结构,量化分析块内的工作质量由相关数学模型的品质来决定.     

结构地震反应性态的物理随机最优控制

本研究发展了结构地震反应性态的随机最优控制理论和方法.这一研究建立在物理随机系统思想的新理论框架下,突破了以It(o)随机微分方程描述动力系统的经典随机最优控制的藩篱.提出了基于系统二阶统计量评价、单目标超越概率和多目标能量均衡的控制器参数设计准则,以及基于概率可控指标的控制器位置设计准则,并将它们统一为物理随机最优控...     

城市灾害易损性及其评价指标

城市化的加速使城市成为国民经济和社会发展的重要区域,同时灾害给城市发展造成了巨大的损失。通过分析易损性的维度和时空性,并在总结多因子复合函数方法、模糊综合评价方法、数据包络分析方法等易损性研究方法的基础上,结合复杂的城市系统的内部特征,从人口易损性、经济易损性、社会易损性和生态环境易损性4个方面建立适合城市灾害易损性评价的框架;探讨了包括人口迁入率和经济密度等11个城市灾害易损性指标体系。最后指出城市灾害易损性研究对城市可持续发展有重要意义。     

洪涝灾害经济易损性模糊评价——以安徽沿长江地区为例

洪水灾害是洪水危险性对承灾体易损性综合作用的结果,由于降水量、人口密度、产值等因子在洪水易损性中的作用具有模糊性,因此运用模糊模型进行评价有一定意义。以安徽沿长江地区为例,在GIS和模糊数学法的支持下,建立了基于GIS的模糊综合评价模型,对洪水灾害经济易损性风险进行了评价与分析,将安徽沿长江地区洪涝的易损性程度划分为5个等级:高度易损性、较高度易损性、中度易损性、较低度易损性、低度易损性。研究结果表明:沿江洪水灾害易损性总体水平较高,特别是在马鞍山、芜湖市、铜陵市等经济发达、人口密集、耕地面积广阔的滨江下游平原区。这些地区应积极兴修水利,大力发展避洪产业。     

基于贝叶斯随机评价方法的小城镇灾害易损性分析

为了准确评价小城镇灾害易损性所处的状态,进而为制定小城镇防灾减灾规划提供科学依据,提出了基于贝叶斯公式的小城镇灾害易损性随机评价方法。该方法通过计算小城镇灾害易损性单个指标属于某个评价级别的概率,由最大似然分类原则确定单个易损性指标的评价级别,进而采用最大加权概率原则推求其综合评价级别。通过实例计算分析,并与模糊评估方法、可拓物元评价方法进行比较验证,说明了该方法的可行性及其简单、实用的特点。     

政府突发事件应急能力综合评价

应对突发事件的能力是体现政府执政水平的重要标志之一。提出应充分考虑评价对象的属性以及各评价方法的特点，可以采用层次分析法与模糊综合评价法相结合的方法对政府突发事件应急能力进行评价。运用层次分析法建立层次结构模型，确定指标权重，通过模糊综合评价法构建评价模糊矩阵，进行模糊运算，得出综合评定结果。     

三论灾害防御能力的基本定义与特征

综合灾害防御能力评估已成为应急管理业务和研究的重要内容之一.在前期研究基础上,首先从近年来灾害系统的复杂性特征和应急管理的需求角度出发,对综合灾害防御能力进行了再理解,然后对现有灾害防御能力的多属性综合评估方法进行了梳理总结.以气象灾害为例,通过68项指标构建了我国综合气象灾害防御能力的6个单项指标体系,即制度适应能力...     

Some epidemiologic features of disasters in guatemala

Epidemiological procedures can be organised under disaster conditions by means of a simple surveillance system and with few personnel.
In the aftermath of the 4 February 1976 earthquake in Guatemala, an information system was organized by which the requisite information for decision-making was obtained with adequate speed and promptness.
The initial epidemiologic informution was based on reports collected during the early days on symptoms observed at hospitals and health centers and in localities and villages in the stricken area.
At a second, post-emergency stage a more elaborate surveillance system was instituted to provide guidance in the investigntwn of outbreaks, evaluate the health activities and establish basic criteria for preventive and control measures.     

基于可变模糊聚类的城镇综合承灾能力评价研究

城镇灾害的多样性、频繁发生与其造成的各种损失和破坏的严重化趋势,已经对城镇经济社会发展构成重大威胁。城镇应对灾害的预测、防御、救助及灾后恢复的综合能力,直接决定了城镇可持续发展的基础和能力。建立了基于城镇社会、经济和环境属性功能的城镇综合承灾能力评价指标体系,运用可变模糊聚类方法,通过指标权重、相对隶属度与聚类中心之间的动态迭代,得到了更为合理的样本城镇的防灾、抗灾、救灾和灾后恢复能力相对比较结果。与已有研究相比,可变模糊聚类在综合评价问题上的数据处理和分析能力更客观和多样化。     

灾害损失定量评估的模糊综合评判方法

讨论了灾害损失的构成要素以及灾害损失定量评估的指标体系；依据灾害失评估指标体系的一般形式，给出了由灾害损失单一因子计算灾级的公式；基于笔者提出的模糊灾度概念，给出了可用于各类灾害损失的等级划分的模糊综合评判方法。     

架空管道震害预测实用方法的研究

根据震害调查分析和试验研究结果,建立了由环境因素和管道结构参数组成的,对架空管道震害预测进行二级多因素模糊综合评判的方法。文中给出了计算、评价构成二级评判因素地震烈度、场地类型、工作状态和结构种类各档次正态模糊数范数ａｋ的参数和对实际情况如何确定的方法。本文为面广量大的已建架空管道的震害预测工作提供了一套科学性强,方便实用的计算方法。     

洪水风险管理研究进展与中国洪水风险管理模式初步探讨

在对国内外洪水风险管理研究领域的主要文献进行综述的基础上,针对中国目前防洪减灾的具体情况,提出了分别从家户与企业、保险公司、政府与社会三个不同层面和利益主体加强洪水管理的思路,并进一步探讨了适合中国国情的洪水风险管理模式。     

On the amount of counterpart assistance to be provided after natural disasters: from the perspective of indirect economic loss assessment

China’s counterpart assistance policy is of vital importance in providing guidance for emergency management and post-disaster reconstruction. However, the amount of assistance that partner provinces should provide as well as the criteria that partners should abide by in offering counterpart assistance remain a main challenge. The goal of this research is to fill this gap by proposing a new framework consisting of an interregional input–output (IRIO) model and a resilience index. Subsequently, the indirect economic loss is obtained by utilizing the index system of provincial economic resilience assessments, with measures of indirect economic loss developed from the IRIO. Furthermore, to examine the internal validity and systematic error, the reliability of the adopted models, the calculation methods, and the index systems are investigated. To assess the external validity of the proposed measures and resilience index of the framework, data from the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake are applied for estimating parameter values of the framework, and a follow-up investigation was conducted for examining the fairness and enhanced effectiveness of the new counterpart assistance criteria. In summary, this paper attempts to present some new ideas about the analysis of economic motivations of mutual aid and the improvement of the counterpart assistance policy.     

Perspectives on policy framework for trans-boundary water quality management in China

In river basins that cross jurisdictional boundaries, water quality degradation has become a crucial problem and results in intensive competition among water users, especially in developing countries. Under this situation, implementing water quality management and control across jurisdictional boundaries can strengthen watershed pollution controls, and prevent pollution from being passed on and promote active pollution control within the related jurisdictional regions. This study examined the limitations of the current trans-boundary water quality management system in China and reviewed the planning and implementation of two pilot integrated trans-boundary water management systems established in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces. Based on our findings, we proposed a new policy framework for trans-boundary water quality management. As a first step toward integrated watershed management in China, this policy framework can help assess the actual water pollution status of various regions and serve as a basis for an integrated watershed management system. The framework can be easily applied in other countries with trans-boundary water pollution issues, particularly in the context of developing countries.     

试论地震灾害对经济社会发展的影响

通过收集整理我国大陆显著地震灾害事件与社会经济发展的相关资料,分析讨论不同经济体制下地震灾害对经济社会发展、产业结构调整等方面的影响,并对地震灾后恢复重建提出对策建议。     

矿井瓦斯危险状态评价研究

运用模糊系统理论,按照瓦斯危险状态存在的模糊客观性,提出了瓦斯危险状态评价语言因于描述方法;结合提出的矿井瓦斯危险状态程度及其存在程度的可能性度量方法,构成了瓦斯危险状态评价的多值化描述方法,而且包含了更多的状态描述信息,对指标间相互关联制约作用进行了进一步的研究,挖掘了指标间相互关联制约对评价结论的本质影响．     

社会脆弱性研究综述

在梳理社会脆弱性概念和分析框架的基础上,从气候变化、自然灾害、城市化、旅游发展、健康、环境污染及公共安全等扰动视角出发,对其影响下的社会脆弱性研究内容进行梳理总结,并提出未来社会脆弱性研究的关键问题.社会脆弱性研究的关注度不断上升,但社会脆弱性的概念和分析框架尚无统一定论;研究内容多关注气候变化和自然灾害等自然因素扰动...