Dynamic regression modeling of daily nitrate-nitrogen concentrations in a large agricultural watershed

Nitrate-nitrogen concentrations in rivers represent challenges for water supplies that use surface water sources. Nitrate concentrations are often modeled using time-series approaches, but previous efforts have typically relied on monthly time steps. In this study, we developed a dynamic regression model of daily nitrate concentrations in the Raccoon River, Iowa, that incorporated contemporaneous and lags of precipitation and discharge occurring at several locations around the basin. Results suggested that 95 % of the variation in daily nitrate concentrations measured at the outlet of a large agricultural watershed can be explained by time-series patterns of precipitation and discharge occurring in the basin. Discharge was found to be a more important regression variable than precipitation in our model but both regression parameters were strongly correlated with nitrate concentrations. The time-series model was consistent with known patterns of nitrate behavior in the watershed, successfully identifying contemporaneous dilution mechanisms from higher relief and urban areas of the basin while incorporating the delayed contribution of nitrate from tile-drained regions in a lagged response. The first difference of the model errors were modeled as an AR(16) process and suggest that daily nitrate concentration changes remain temporally correlated for more than 2 weeks although temporal correlation was stronger in the first few days before tapering off. Consequently, daily nitrate concentrations are non-stationary, i.e. of strong memory. Using time-series models to reliably forecast daily nitrate concentrations in a river based on patterns of precipitation and discharge occurring in its basin may be of great interest to water suppliers.     

Study of the Climate Change Impacts on Water Quality in the Upstream Portion of the Cau River Basin,Vietnam

This paper presents simulations of climate change impacts on water quality in the upstream portion of the Cau River Basin in the North of Vietnam. The integrated modeling system GIBSI was used to simulate hydrological processes, pollutant and sediment wash-off in the river basin, and pollutant transport and transformation in the river network. Three projections for climate change based on emission scenarios B1, B2, and A2 of IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) were considered. By assuming that the input pollution sources and watershed configuration were constant, based on 2008 data, water quality in the river network was simulated up to the terminal year 2050. For each climate change scenario, patterns of precipitation in wet and dry year were considered. The change in annual and monthly trends for dissolved oxygen (DO), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), and ammonium ions (NH4+) load and concentration for different portions of the watershed have been analyzed. The results of these simulations show that climate change has more impact on changing the seasonal water quality parameters than on altering the average annual load of the pollutants. The percent change and change pattern in water quality parameters are different for wet and dry year, and the changes in wet year are smaller than those in dry year.     

Impacts of water resources development on flow regimes in the Brazos River

The Brazos River, the second largest basin in Texas, represents one of the most highly developed river systems in the state. Thirty-nine reservoirs with capacities greater than 5,000 acre-feet are currently in operation in the basin. Impacts on stream ecosystems are evidenced by changes in flow regimes and resulting changes in fish assemblages over the past 50 years. These changes have been widely attributed to human impacts, through the construction of dams, diversion of water supplies for agricultural and municipal uses, and land use change. However, streamflow regimes result from a complex mix of drivers that include climate, topography, land cover, land use practices, reservoir management practices, dam releases, and water consumption patterns, making determination of anthropogenic impacts problematic. This study quantifies changes in flow regime and probable historical drivers including precipitation, dam construction, population growth, and changing water demand in the Brazos River basin over the past 100 years. Results indicate that the climate of the basin has been relatively stable over the study period, while large-scale changes in human population densities and intense water resources development are correlated with impacts on flow regimes, decreasing the frequency and magnitude of high flow events and stabilizing low flows. These changes have resulted in an increase of habitat generalist fish species, a decrease of native obligate riverine fishes, and an overall homogenization of species assemblages. The results of this study indicate the importance of combining ecological data with an assessment of social drivers for a greater understanding of the dynamics of river basin systems.     

Spatial and temporal variation of soil organic carbon in the North China Plain

The organic carbon, permeability test, grain size, chemical composition, and mineral composition were analyzed for 147 samples collected from the Luan River catchment, Hebei province, China, to quantitatively characterize the effects of land use, climate change, sedimentary environment, mineral composition, and chemical composition on the spatial and temporal variation of soil organic carbon (SOC). The results indicate that there was higher SOC content and stronger variation in the south plain than in the northern low mountain. The effects of land use, climate change, and sedimentary environment on SOC distribution were greater than the effects of mineral composition and chemical composition. The cropping systems in the Luan River catchment resulted in significant difference in SOC concentration between the south plain and north mountain. The precipitation mainly transmitted its effects through the sedimentary environment to SOC, which caused the stronger temporal variation in SOC from June to October in the south plain. The north mountain did not have significant temporal variation because of the lower hydraulic conductivity of the sedimentary sequence. The spatial variation of SOC was correlated with land use, and their temporal variation was attributed to climate change and sedimentary environment. Apart from land use, the decision maker can also affect the organic carbon mineral and sequence through the sedimentary environment.     

Implementing In-Stream Nutrient Processes in Large-Scale Landscape Modeling for the Impact Assessment on Water Quality

For a long time, watershed models focused on the transport of chemicals from the terrestrial part of the watershed to the surface water bodies by leaching and erosion. After the substances had reached the surface water, they were routed through the channel network often without any further transformation. Today, there is a need to extend watershed models with in-stream processes to bring them closer to natural conditions and to enhance their usability as support tools for water management and water quality policies. This paper presents experience with implementing in-stream processes in a ecohydrological dynamic watershed model and its application on the large scale in the Saale River basin in Germany. Results demonstrate that new implemented water quality parameters like chlorophyll a concentrations or oxygen amount in the reach can be reproduced quite well, although the model results, compared with results achieved without taking into account algal and transformation processes in the river, show obvious improvement only for some of the examined nutrients. Finally, some climate and water management scenarios expected to impact in-stream processes in the Saale basin were run. Their results illustrate the relative importance of physical boundary conditions on the amount and concentration of the phytoplankton, which leads to the conclusion that measures to improve water quality should not only take nutrient inputs into account but also climate influences and river morphology.     

湖州合溪新港污染物入湖通量估算与分析

根据2021年5月—2022年4月合溪新港河流水量、水质(TN和TP)的同步监测数据,利用通量模型核算了合溪新港污染物(TN和TP)通量。通过测算合溪新港TN、TP通量与断面降雨强度、水质的响应关系,分析了该区域的污染类型及特点,为后期水质污染调查及通量研究提供了新思路。结果表明：合溪新港流量与降雨量存在明显相关关系,在强降雨期(7—8月)水体流量最高,占监测周期总流量的57.77%;少雨期则流量最低,且会出现湖水倒灌现象(11—12月)。通过分析合溪新港TN、TP通量与流量、水质的相关关系,确定了该流域污染类型为点源污染及农业面源污染共存的混合型污染,且在高强度降雨时污染物负荷量较大。综上,可针对农业面源污染对该流域治理提出相关对策,建立农业面源污染防治体系,以有效降低TN和TP污染物的入湖通量,减少太湖TN和TP污染物负荷量。     

Potential Impact of Clean Air Act Regulations on Nitrogen Fate and Transport in the Neuse River Basin: a Modeling Investigation Using CMAQ and SWAT

There has been extensive analysis of Clean Air Act Amendment (CAAA) regulation impacts to changes in atmospheric nitrogen deposition; however, few studies have focused on watershed nitrogen transfer particularly regarding long-term predictions. In this study, we investigated impacts of CAAA NOx emissions on the fate and transport of nitrogen for two watersheds in the Neuse River Basin. We applied the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using simulated deposition rates from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Two scenarios were investigated: one that considered CAAA emission controls in CMAQ simulation (with) and a second that did not (without). By 2020, results showed a 70 % drop in nitrogen discharge for the Little River watershed and a 50 % drop for the Nahunta watershed from 1990 levels under the with-CAAA scenario. Denitrification and plant nitrogen uptake played important roles in nitrogen discharge from each watershed. Nitrogen watershed response time to a change in atmospheric nitrogen deposition was 4 years for Nahunta and 2 years for Little River. We attribute these differences in nitrogen response time to contrasts in agricultural land use and diversity of crop types. Soybean, hay, and corn land covers had comparatively longer response times to changes in atmospheric deposition. The studied watersheds demonstrate relatively large nitrogen retention: ≥80 % of all delivered nitrogen.     

Variable-source flood pulsing in a semi-arid transboundary watershed: the Chobe River, Botswana and Namibia

The Chobe River, characterized by an unusual flood pulsing regime and shared between Botswana and Namibia, lies at the heart of the world’s largest transfrontier conservation area (the Kavango–Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area). Significant ecological changes and vegetation conversions are occurring along its floodplains. Various scenarios for agricultural and urban water use are currently being proposed by the government of Botswana. However, the understanding of the river’s annual flow regime and timing of the relative contributions of water from three different sources is relatively poor. In light of past and future climate change and variability, this means that allocating water between ecological flows and economic and domestic uses will become increasingly challenging. We reconstruct the inundation history in this basin to help ease this challenge. This paper presents a spatiotemporal approach to estimate the contribution of water from various sources and the magnitude of changes in the flooding extent in the basin between 1985 and 2010. We used time series analysis of bimonthly NOAA AVHRR and NASA MODIS data and climatologic and hydrologic records to determine the flooding timing and extent. The results indicate that between 12 and 62 % of the basin is flooded on an annual basis and that the spatial extent of the flooding varies throughout the year as a function of the timing of peak discharge in two larger basins. A 30-year trend analysis indicates a consistent decline in the average monthly flooded area in the basin. The results may prove useful in future water utilization feasibility studies, in determining measures for protecting ecological flows and levels, and in ecosystem dynamics studies in the context of current and future climate change and variability.     

A Zooplankton-N:P-Ratio Indicator for Lakes

We develop the conceptual and empirical basis for a multi-level ecosystem indicator for lakes. The ratio of total N to total P in lake water is influenced or regulated by a variety of ecosystem processes operating at several organizational levels and spatial scales: atmospheric, terrestrial watershed, lake water, and aquatic community. The character of the pelagic zooplankton assemblage is shown to be well correlated with lake water N:P ratio, with species assemblages arrayed along the N:P gradient in accordance with resource supply theory. Features of specific zooplankton assemblages or deviations from expected assemblages can provide information useful for lake managers, such as the efficiency of pollutant transfer and biomagnification of toxins, loss of cool-water refuge areas, degree of zooplanktivory and food web simplification related to changes in fisheries, and assemblage changes due to anthropogenic acidification. Evaluation of the influence of watershed land use, forest cover and vegetation type, atmospheric deposition, and basin hydrology on the supply of N and P to lake ecosystems provides a means to couple changes in the terrestrial environment to potential changes in aquatic ecosystems. Deviations of lake water N:P values from expected values based on analysis of watershed and lake basin characteristics, including values inferred from appropriate diatom microfossil deposits, can provide an independent validation and baseline reference for assessing the extent and type of disturbance. Therefore, the N:P ratio of lake water can serve as a potentially useful and inexpensively obtained proxy measure for assessing changes or shifts in the biological and nutrient status of lakes.     

Impacts of climate warming on vegetation in Qaidam Area from 1990 to 2003

The observed warming trend in the Qaidam area, an arid basin surrounded by high mountains, has caused land surface dynamics that are detectable using remotely sensed data. In this paper, we detected land-cover changes in the Qaidam Area between 1990 and 2003 in attempt to depict its spatial variability. The land-cover changes were categorized into two trends: degradation and amelioration, and their spatial patterns were examined. Then we estimated the correlation coefficients between growing-season NDVI and several climatic factors with the consideration of duration and lagging effects. The results show that the inter-annual NDVI variations are positively correlated with May to July precipitations, but not significantly correlated with sunshine duration. We observed no obvious trend in precipitation or sunshine duration from 1990 to 2003. Thus, the authors suggest that their slight fluctuations may not be responsible to the decade-scaled land-cover changes. However, our results indicate a good positive relationship between the NDVI trend and climate warming in the ameliorated areas, but a negative one in the degraded areas. By statistical analyses, we found that degradations mainly occurred at the oasis boundaries and at lower elevations in the non-oasis regions where effective soil moisture might have been reduced by the warming-caused increase in evapotranspiration. At higher elevations where thermal condition acts as a major limiting factor, ameliorations were unequivocally detected, which is attributable to the direct facilitation by temperature increases. We suggest that the impacts of the observed climate warming on vegetation are spatially heterogeneous, depending on the combinations of thermal condition and moisture availability.     

Long-term monitoring for environmental change in U.S. National Parks a watershed approach

The U.S. National Park Service (NPS) is faced with direct questions about the condition of Park natural resources. The watershed approach to long-term monitoring of natural, and remote areas within the National Parks has provided important data for detecting both spacial and temporal changes in environmental conditions. These data collections allow the partitioning of cause and effect relationships of ecological change within a given watershed. They also serve to meet both reference and early warning objectives. Success in advancing a number of acid precipitation goals has demonstrated the usefulness of these integrated watershed data for inter-ecosystem comparison and for analogy between watersheds. The watershed program owing to the NPS experience is proposed as a model for focusing the National Park Service's inventory and monitoring program inititiative. This approach provides to park researchers and resources managers the needed tools for dealing with today's complex local, regional and global natural resources issues.     

Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Bago River Basin,Myanmar

Assessment of land use and climate change impacts on the hydrological cycle is important for basin scale water resources management. This study aims to investigate the potential impacts of land use and climate change on the hydrology of the Bago River Basin in Myanmar. Two scenarios from the representative concentration pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5) were used to project the future climate of 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. Six general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were selected to project the future climate in the basin. An increase of average temperature in the range of 0.7 to 1.5 °C and 0.9 to 2.7 °C was observed under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, in future periods. Similarly, average annual precipitation shows a distinct increase in all three periods with the highest increase in 2050s. A well calibrated and validated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate the land use and climate change impacts on future stream flows in the basin. It is observed that the impact of climate change on stream flow is higher than the land use change in the near future. The combined impacts of land use and climate change can increase the annual stream flow up to 68 % in the near future. The findings of this study would be beneficial to improve land and water management decisions and in formulating adaptation strategies to reduce the negative impacts, and harness the positive impacts of land use and climate change in the Bago River Basin.     

Disaster Management for Nandira Watershed District Angul (Orissa) India, Using Temporal Remote Sensing Data and Gis

NALCO – the largest exporter of aluminium in India has a power plant of 720 MW capacity in Nandira watershed in Angul district of Orissa. The power plant utilises local coal to generate thermal power and disposes of large amount of ash which accumulates in slurry form at nearby two ash ponds. These ash ponds were breached on 31 December 2000, causing ash accumulation for entire regime of the Nandira river. An attempt has been made towards preparation of recovery and rehabilitation plan for NALCO using temporal Remote Sensing data and GIS. Indian remote sensing satellite data for pre-breach condition 12 December 2000, during breach event 31 December 2000 and post-breach condition 4 and 6 January 2001 has been digitally analysed for Nandira watershed. The satellite data of coarse spatial resolution provides the absence and presence of fresh sediment deposition along Nandira watershed and Brahmani river pertaining to pre-breach and post-breach conditions respectively on regional scales. The temporal comparison of fine resolution has clearly highlighted the aerial extent of damage caused by the disaster for entire watershed on local scales. The GIS has helped in demarcation of freshly accumulated ash at interval of 500 m along the river length as well as in delineation of maximum ash accumulation across the river width. The study has clearly demonstrated the use of temporal Remote Sensing data in conjunction with GIS for disaster management in terms of recovery and rehabilitation plan preparation of the Nandira watershed.     

Evaluating climatic and non-climatic stresses for declining surface water quality in Bagmati River of Nepal

Both climatic and non-climatic factors affect surface water quality. Similar to its effect across various sectors and areas, climate change has potential to affect surface water quality directly and indirectly. On the one hand, the rise in temperature enhances the microbial activity and decomposition of organic matter in the river system and changes in rainfall alter discharge and water flow in the river ultimately affecting pollution dilution level. On the other hand, the disposal of organic waste and channelizing municipal sewage into the rivers seriously worsen water quality. This study attempts to relate hydro-climatology, water quality, and impact of climatic and non-climatic stresses in affecting river water quality in the upper Bagmati basin in Central Nepal. The results showed that the key water quality indicators such as dissolved oxygen and chemical oxygen demand are getting worse in recent years. No significant relationships were found between the key water quality indicators and changes in key climatic variables. However, the water quality indicators correlated with the increase in urban population and per capita waste production in the city. The findings of this study indicate that dealing with non-climatic stressors such as reducing direct disposal of sewerage and other wastes in the river rather than emphasizing on working with the effects from climate change would largely help to improve water quality in the river flowing from highly populated urban areas.     

Time-Varying Parameter Analysis of the Baltic Sea Freshwater Runoffs

The Baltic Sea runoff events during 1970–2000 were analysed with non-linear estimation in order to find potential stability and time-varying (non-constancy) properties of time series parameters. In the Baltic Sea area, the wintertime rainfall is expected to increase, especially in the northern parts of the watershed; furthermore, seasonality is expected to decrease, i.e. the runoffs will become more evenly distributed over seasons, mainly by decreasing springtime peaks. We found a general increase in runoffs over the time period studied that consisted of a level shift upwards during the early 1980s. The runoffs considerably resulted from inputs in the months of April to June (which points to the significance of winter precipitation) and are biased to northern parts of the catchment. Our results suggest that this is connected with snow and ice melting in the northern areas of the watershed, especially in the subarctic catchment area of the Neva River (the area includes, for example, three of the four biggest lakes in Europe, Lake Ladoga, Lake Onega and Lake Saimaa, which are annually covered by ice). The yearly variation in runoff is significantly stabilised by large N–S extension of the watersheds of these lakes. The results are generally in accordance with the presented climatic expectations; however, decreasing seasonality was not obvious in the series yet. However, we found potential implications of system change towards decreased seasonality. By better understanding of ongoing processes in the sea, the results can give us an opportunity to better evaluate the system control, predicted areal consequences and ecosystem effects of the climate change. The analysis proved to be a sensitive tool for studying climatic variation in a relatively small area and over a short time span.     

Using Temporal Coherence to Determine the Response to Climate Change in Boreal Shield Lakes

Climate change is expected to have important impacts on aquatic ecosystems. On the Boreal Shield, mean annual air temperatures are expected to increase 2 to 4°C over the next 50 years. An important challenge is to predict how changes in climate and climate variability will impact natural systems so that sustainable management policies can be implemented. To predict responses to complex ecosystem changes associated with climate change, we used long-term biotic databases to evaluate how important elements of the biota in Boreal Shield lakes have responded to past fluctuations in climate. Our long-term records span a two decade period where there have been unusually cold years and unusually warm years. We used coherence analyses to test for regionally operating controls on climate, water temperature, pH, and plankton richness and abundance in three regions across Ontario: the Experimental Lakes Area, Sudbury, and Dorset. Inter-annual variation in air temperature was similar among regions, but there was a weak relationship among regions for precipitation. While air temperature was closely related to lake surface temperatures in each of the regions, there were weak relationships between lake surface temperature and richness or abundance of the plankton. However, inter-annual changes in lake chemistry (i.e., pH) were correlated with some biotic variables. In some lakes in Sudbury and Dorset, pH was dependent on extreme events. For example, El Nino related droughts resulted in acidification pulses in some lakes that influenced phytoplankton and zooplankton richness. These results suggest that there can be strong heterogeneity in lake ecosystem responses within and across regions.     

Characterization of Solang valley watershed in western Himalaya for bio-resource conservation using remote sensing techniques

The development activities in mountainous region though provide comfort to the human being and enhance the socioeconomic status of the people but create pressure on the bio-resources. In this paper, the current status of land use/landcover and the vegetation communities of the Solang valley watershed in Himachal Pradesh of Indian western Himalaya has been mapped and presented using remote sensing. This watershed area was dominated by alpine and sub-alpine pastures (30.34%) followed by scree slopes (22.34%) and forests (21.06%). Many tree, shrub, and herb species identified in the study area are among the prioritized species for conservation in the Indian Himalayan Region. Thus, scientific interventions and preparation of action plans based on ecological survey are required for conservation of the Solang valley watershed.     

流域水环境生态补偿实践与进展

流域水环境生态补偿是当前流域上下游实现经济利益、环境利益均衡及流域和谐的地方性政策。系统回顾了近年来国内地方性水环境生态补偿实践和进展,通过对各省地表水环境生态补偿在生态补偿标准、实施范围等的剖析。得出当前流域水环境生态补偿存在的主要问题是生态补偿考核因子、考核断面的设定行政干预的因素过多、生态补偿标准的测算缺乏理论依据、生态补偿金核算方法依据的基础不统一、生态补偿主客体不明确等。     

Effects of land cover changes induced by large physical disturbances on hydrological responses in Central Taiwan

This study analyzes the significant impacts of typhoons and earthquakes on land cover change and hydrological response. The occurrence of landslides following typhoons and earthquakes is a major indicator of natural disturbance. The hydrological response of the Chenyulan watershed to land use change was assessed from 1996 to 2005. Land use changes revealed by seven remote images corresponded to typhoons and a catastrophic earthquake in central Taiwan. Hydrological response is discussed as the change in quantities and statistical distributions of hydrological components. The land cover change results indicate that the proportion of landslide relative to total area increased to 6.1% after the Chi-Chi earthquake, representing the largest increase during the study period. The study watershed is dominated by forest land cover. Comparisons of hydrological components reveal that the disturbance significantly affects base flow and direct runoff. The hydrological modeling results demonstrate that the change in forest area correlates with the variation of base flow and direct runoff. Base flow and direct runoff are sensitive to land use in discussions of distinction. The proposed approach quantifies the effect of typhoons and earthquakes on land cover changes.     

Predicting climate change effects on surface soil organic carbon of Louisiana,USA

This study aimed to assess the degree of potential temperature and precipitation change as predicted by the HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3) climate model for Louisiana, and to investigate the effects of potential climate change on surface soil organic carbon (SOC) across Louisiana using the Rothamsted Carbon Model (RothC) and GIS techniques at the watershed scale. Climate data sets at a grid cell of 0.5°?×?0.5° for the entire state of Louisiana were collected from the HadCM3 model output for three climate change scenarios: B2, A2, and A1F1, that represent low, higher, and even higher greenhouse gas emissions, respectively. Geo-referenced datasets including USDA-NRCS Soil Geographic Database (STATSGO), USGS Land Cover Dataset (NLCD), and the Louisiana watershed boundary data were gathered for SOC calculation at the watershed scale. A soil carbon turnover model, RothC, was used to simulate monthly changes in SOC from 2001 to 2100 under the projected temperature and precipitation changes. The simulated SOC changes in 253 watersheds from three time periods, 2001–2010, 2041–2050, and 2091–2100, were tested for the influence of the land covers and emissions scenarios using SAS PROC GLIMMIX and PDMIX800 macro to separate Tukey-Kramer (p?p?p?p?相似文献