Regional impact analysis of climate change on natural and managed forests in the Federal State of Brandenburg, Germany

A methodology for regional application of forest simulation models has been developed as part of an assessment of possible climate change impacts in the Federal state of Brandenburg (Germany). Here we report on the application of a forest gap model to analyse the impacts of climate change on species composition and productivity of natural and managed forests in Brandenburg using a statistical method for the development of climate scenarios. The forest model was linked to a GIS that includes soil and groundwater table maps, as well as gridded climate data with a resolution of 10 × 10 km and simulated a steady-state species composition which was classified into forest types based on the biomass distribution between species. Different climate scenarios were used to assess the sensitivity of species composition to climate change. The simulated forest distribution patterns for current climate were compared with a map of Potential Natural Vegetation (PNV) of Brandenburg.In order to analyse the possible consequences of climate change on forest management, we used forest inventory data to initialize the model with representative forest stands. Simulation experiments with two different management strategies indicated how forest management could respond to the projected impacts of climate change. The combination of regional analysis of natural forest dynamics under climate change with simulation experiments for managed forests outlines possible trends for the forest resources. The implications of the results are discussed, emphasizing the regional differences in environmental risks and the adaptation potentials of forestry in Brandenburg.     

Mesoscale ecohydrological modelling to analyse regional effects of climate change

Hydrological processes and crop growth were simulated for the state of Brandenburg (Germany) using the hydrological/vegetation/water quality model SWIM, which can be applied for mesoscale river basins or regions. Hydrological validation was carried out for three mesoscale river basins in the area. The crop growth module was validated regionally for winter wheat, winter barley and maize. After that the analysis of climate change impacts on hydrology and crop growth was performed, using a transient 1.5 K scenario of climate change for Brandenburg and restricting the crop spectrum to the three above mentioned crops. According to the scenario, precipitation is expected to increase. The impact study was done comparing simulation results for two scenario periods 2022–2030 and 2042–2050 with those for a reference period 1981–1992. The atmospheric CO₂ concentrations for the reference period and two scenario periods were set to 346, 406 and 436 ppm, respectively. Two different methods – an empirical one and a semi-mechanistic one – were used for adjustment of net photosynthesis to altered CO₂. With warming, the model simulates an increase of evapotranspiration (+9.5%, +15.4%) and runoff (+7.0%, +17.2%). The crop yield was only slightly altered under the climate change only scenario (no CO₂ fertilization effect) for barley and maize, and it was reduced for wheat (–6.2%, –10.3%). The impact of higher atmospheric CO₂ compensated for climate-related wheat yield losses, and resulted in an increased yield both for barley and maize compared to the reference scenario. The simulated combined effect of climate change and elevated CO₂ on crop yield was about 7% higher for the C₃ crops when the CO₂ and temperature interaction was ignored. The assumption that stomatal control of transpiration is taking place at the regional scale led to further increase in crop yield, which was larger for maize than for wheat and barley. The regional water balance was practically not affected by the partial stimulation of net photosynthesis due to higher CO₂, while the introduction of stomatal control of regional transpiration reduced evapotranspiration and enlarged notably runoff and ground water recharge.     

Modeling distribution changes of vegetation in China under future climate change

Climatic change will result in great changes in vegetation. In this paper, a biogeographical model, the BIOME1, was used to predict potential vegetation distribution in China under climate change. Firstly, the BIOME1 was validated according to the climate–vegetation relationships in China. Kappa statistics showed that the validated BIOME1 was able to capture the geographical patterns of vegetation more accurately. Then, the validated BIOME1 was used to predict the distribution of vegetation of China under two climatic scenarios produced by a Regional Circulation Model, RegCM2/CN. The simulation results showed obvious northward shifts of the boreal, temperate deciduous and evergreen and tropical forests, a large expansion of tropical dry forest/savanna and reduction of tundra on the Tibetan Plateau. Three vulnerable regions sensitive to climate changes are pointed out, i.e., Northern China, the Tibetan Plateau and Southwestern China (mainly Hengduan Mountains in Yunnan Province and west of Sichuan Province). In recent decades, China has experienced dramatic industrialization and population growth, which exert strong pressure on the environment of China. The consequences of climate changes warrant more attention for maintaining a sustainable environment for China.     

Global climate change and regional sustainable development: the case of Mackenzie Basin in Canada

Cohen et al. [16] suggest that in order to explore ways to bring climate change (CC) and sustainable development (SD) research together, it is necessary to develop more heuristic tools that can involve resource users and other stakeholders. In this respect, this paper focuses on methodological development in research to study climate change impacts and regional sustainable development (RSD). It starts with an introduction of an integrated land assessment framework (ILAF) which is part of the integrated phase of the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS) in Canada. The paper then provides some articulation on how the integrated approach was applied in the Mackenzie Basin to show implications of climate change for RSD.     

Implications of climate change for evaporation from bare soils in a Mediterranean environment

The purpose of this study was to predict quantitative changes in evaporation from bare soils in the Mediterranean climate region of Turkey in response to the projections of a regional climate model developed in Japan (hereafter RCM). Daily RCM data for the estimation of reference evapotranspiration (ET _r) and soil evaporation were obtained for the periods of 1994–2003 and 2070–2079. Potential evaporation (E _p) from bare soils was calculated using the Penman–Monteith equation with a surface resistance of zero. Simulation of actual soil evaporation (E _a) was carried out using Aydin model (Aydin et al., Ecological Modelling 182:91–105, 2005) combined with Aydin and Uygur (2006, A model for estimating soil water potential of bare fields. In Proceedings of the 18th International Soil Meeting (ISM) on Soils Sustaining Life on Earth, Managing Soil and Technology, Sanliurfa, 477–480pp.) model of predicting soil water potential at the top surface layer of a bare soil, after performances of Aydin model (R ² = 94.0%) and Aydin and Uygur model (R ² = 97.6) were tested. The latter model is based on the relations among potential soil evaporation, hydraulic diffusivity, and soil wetness, with some simplified assumptions. Input parameters of the model are simple and easily obtainable such as climatic parameters used to compute the potential soil evaporation, average diffusivity for the drying soil, and volumetric water content at field capacity. The combination of Aydin and Aydin and Uygur models appeared to be useful in estimating water potential of soils and E _a from bare soils, with only a few parameters. Unlike ET _r and E _p projected to increase by 92 and 69 mm (equivalent to 8.0 and 7.3% increases) due to the elevated evaporative demand of the atmosphere, respectively, E _a from bare soils is projected to reduce by 50 mm (equivalent to a 16.5% decrease) in response to a decrease in rainfall by 46% in the Mediterranean region of Turkey by the 2070s predicted by RCM, and consequently, to decreased soil wetness in the future.     

Regional analysis of global change impacts: Concepts, tools and first results

The paper introduces an approach for the analysis of global change impacts on river basins or regions. This approach is quite general and can be transferred to any region or river basin of interest on earth. The first application of the approach was in the Elbe river basin, with primary focus on the hydrologic model part and on the integration of crop growth and nitrogen dynamics. Finally, concepts for the integration of socio-economic aspects in the analysis are introduced.     

Effect of an industrial discharge on water quality and periphyton structure in a pampeam stream

Seasonal sampling was carried out at four sites on a pampeanstream that receives industrial effluent from two textile factories. To evaluate water quality, several physical and chemical parameters were examined and the periphyton growing oncattail (Typha latifolia L.) were analyzed.Water quality and periphyton structure differed significantlybetween sites upstream and downstream of the discharge. Differences in temperature and also in concentrations of phosphate, dissolved oxygen, and phaeopigment were detected. At the same time, changes in the dominant algae groups wereobserved. Downstream of the industrial discharge, the numberof Bacillariophyta decreased, while species of Cianophyta andEuglenophyta were more abundant. This abundance correlated withincreased phosphate and organic matter content and decreased oxygen concentration. Although this study did not detect a reduction in the number of species, similarity between stands decreased downstream of the industrial discharge. Changes incommunity structure were readily detected in this situation because the communities of the polluted and unpolluted zones were qualitatively different. Periphyton growing naturally on Typha latifolia is a useful indicator of the impact of waste waters on the biota and can also be used to evaluate water body recovery.     

Participatory integrated assessment of adaptation to climate change in Alpine tourism and mountain agriculture

Winter tourism and mountain agriculture are the most important economic sectors in a major part of the Swiss Alps. Both are highly sensitive to changing climatic conditions. In the framework of the CLEAR project, results from climate impact research in the field of tourism and agricultural production were used to investigate the perception of climatic change by stakeholders and to assess possible adaptations. We used a participatory integrated assessment (PIA) to involve the knowledge, values and experiences of the various social actors in tourism and agriculture (e.g., skiers, tourism managers, farmers) in the research process. Whereas climate change may have various severe direct impacts on the tourism industry, depending on the region, agricultural production may generally benefit from changed climatic conditions. But because of the dependence of farmers on “off-farm” income, the loss due to declining winter tourism in specific areas may cause more important indirect effects. However, the two sectors may adapt actively by choosing from a variety of strategies, and the loss of income from the tourism industry may support the re-evaluation of the various functions agriculture plays in mountain regions, beyond the production of food. The study demonstrates the suitability of the PIA approach to elucidate the interactions between different stakeholders and their perception of the climate change phenomena. A similar participatory approach could be a useful tool to transfer research results and expert knowledge to the political process addressing adaptations to climate change. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Modeling the Effects of Air Quality Policy Changes on Water Quality in Urban Areas

This paper describes the development and application of an integrated modeling framework composed of an urban air chemistry model, an urban runoff model, and a water-quality model. The models were linked to simulate the fate and transport of air emissions of nitrogen compounds in the air, urban watershed, surface water runoff, and in a coastal receiving-water body. The model linkage is demonstrated by evaluating the potential water quality implications of reducing NO _x emissions by 32%, volatile organic compound emissions by 51%, and ammonia emissions by 30%, representing changes from 1987 levels to proposed 2000 target levels in Los Angeles, California, USA. Simulations of the Los Angeles dry season during the summer of 1987 (June 1 to August 31) indicated that by reducing emissions from 1987 to proposed year 2000 levels, the dry deposition nitrogen loads to Santa Monica Bay and the Ballona Creek watershed were reduced 21.4% and 15.0%, respectively. Water quality modeling results indicated that dry season atmospheric load reductions to the Ballona Creek Estuary did not reduce chlorophyll-a levels or significantly raise nighttime dissolved oxygen levels because the magnitude of the reductions was negligible compared to non-atmospheric inputs of nitrogen compounds. Simulations of the time period from November 18, 1987 to December 4, 1987 during the Los Angeles wet season indicated that air emissions reductions produced an 18.6% reduction in the dry deposition nitrogen load to Santa Monica Bay, a 15.5% reduction in the dry deposition nitrogen load to the Ballona Creek watershed, a 16.8% reduction in the wet deposition nitrogen load to the Ballona Creek watershed, and a 16.1% reduction in the stormwater discharge load from the Ballona Creek watershed. Although the wet season load reductions are significant, modeling results of the ultimate effect on the Ballona Creek Estuary water quality were inconclusive.     

Tropical cyclone losses in the USA and the impact of climate change — A trend analysis based on data from a new approach to adjusting storm losses

Economic losses caused by tropical cyclones have increased dramatically. Historical changes in losses are a result of meteorological factors (changes in the incidence of severe cyclones, whether due to natural climate variability or as a result of human activity) and socio-economic factors (increased prosperity and a greater tendency for people to settle in exposed areas). This paper aims to isolate the socio-economic effects and ascertain the potential impact of climate change on this trend. Storm losses for the period 1950–2005 have been adjusted to the value of capital stock in 2005 so that any remaining trend cannot be ascribed to socio-economic developments. For this, we introduce a new approach to adjusting losses based on the change in capital stock at risk. Storm losses are mainly determined by the intensity of the storm and the material assets, such as property and infrastructure, located in the region affected. We therefore adjust the losses to exclude increases in the capital stock of the affected region. No trend is found for the period 1950–2005 as a whole. In the period 1971–2005, since the beginning of a trend towards increased intense cyclone activity, losses excluding socio-economic effects show an annual increase of 4% per annum. This increase must therefore be at least due to the impact of natural climate variability but, more likely than not, also due to anthropogenic forcings.     

Comparative Water Quality of Lightly- and Moderately-Impacted Streams in the Southern Blue Ridge Mountains, USA

For less-developed regions like the Blue Ridge Mountains, data are limited that link basin-scale land use with stream quality. Two pairs of lightly-impacted (90–100% forested) and moderately-impacted (70–80% forested) sub-basins of the upper Little Tennessee River basin in the southern Blue Ridge were identified for comparison. The pairs contain physically similar stream reaches, chosen for the purpose of isolating forest conversion as a potential driver of any detected differences in water quality. Streams were sampled during baseflow conditions twice monthly over a six-month period from September 2003 through February 2004. Parametric t-tests were run for each parameter measured between the lightly-and moderately-impacted streams within each pair. Statistically significantly higher mean values of suspended and dissolved solids, nitrate, specific conductivity, turbidity, and temperature were observed in the moderately impacted streams versus the lightly impacted streams in both pairs, while dissolved oxygen levels were lower in the moderately-impacted streams. No significant differences were demonstrated in orthophosphate or ammonium concentration. A near-bankfull runoff event on February 6, 2004, was sampled for stormflow values, and the results support baseflow findings. The water quality of these streams is very good when compared with lower relief areas like the Piedmont, and none of the parameters measured in this study exceeds levels of known threat to stream biota. However, the demonstration that moderate reductions in forest cover are associated with stream water quality degradation carries important implications for stream management in this rapidly developing mountainous region.     

伊犁低山丘陵区小流域水土保持措施优化配置研究

在调查分析伊犁低山丘陵区水土流失特点的基础上,研究了该区小流域水土保持措施的空间配置。结果表明：伊犁低山丘陵区水土流失主要表现为以水力侵蚀为主的多种土壤侵蚀类型作用下的坡面侵蚀和沟道侵蚀。针对其水土流失特点,伊犁低山丘陵区小流域水土保持措施优化配置为：以生态修复为主,上游地区封禁保护;中游地区种植水保林和经济林带,建立生态缓冲带;下游水平沟种草。通过综合治理开展水土保持生态环境建设,至2012年底,伊犁低山丘陵区治理程度达到77．33％,林草覆盖率48％,改善了当地生态环境。     

Mind the gap in SEA: An institutional perspective on why assessment of synergies amongst climate change mitigation, adaptation and other policy areas are missing

This article takes its point of departure in two approaches to integrating climate change into Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA): Mitigation and adaptation, and in the fact that these, as well as the synergies between them and other policy areas, are needed as part of an integrated assessment and policy response. First, the article makes a review of how positive and negative synergies between a) climate change mitigation and adaptation and b) climate change and other environmental concerns are integrated into Danish SEA practice. Then, the article discusses the implications of not addressing synergies. Finally, the article explores institutional explanations as to why synergies are not addressed in SEA practice. A document analysis of 149 Danish SEA reports shows that only one report comprises the assessment of synergies between mitigation and adaptation, whilst 9,4% of the reports assess the synergies between climate change and other environmental concerns. The consequences of separation are both the risk of trade-offs and missed opportunities for enhancing positive synergies. In order to propose explanations for the lacking integration, the institutional background is analysed and discussed, mainly based on Scott's theory of institutions. The institutional analysis highlights a regulatory element, since the assessment of climate change synergies is underpinned by legislation, but not by guidance. This means that great focus is on normative elements such as the local interpretation of legislation and of climate change mitigation and adaptation. The analysis also focuses on how the fragmentation of the organisation in which climate change and SEA are embedded has bearings on both normative and cultural-cognitive elements. This makes the assessment of synergies challenging. The evidence gathered and presented in the article points to a need for developing the SEA process and methodology in Denmark with the aim to include climate change in the assessments in a more systematic and integrated manner.     

Quality assessment of freshwater and coastal seawater in the Ionian area of N.E. Sicily,Italy

This work was conducted to analyse pressing and competingdemands of water in Northeast Sicily, Italy. In thisarea, looking at the Ionian Sea, freshwaters and coastalseawaters have been studied on the quality and on thetransport processes of pollutants. Attention has beenfocused on chemical and microbial parameters proposed byEuropean Directives for drinking freshwaters and bathingseawaters. The findings show that the ground freshwaters areof good quality but the surface ones, particularly torrentsand correlated under-river aquifers, are clearly polluted.The characteristics of the coastal seawaters are accordingwith those of the closely bound up estuarine waters.Contamination is due essentially to discharge of raw sewagein the watercourses by public and private pipes. The impactis usually less evident during the wet season because rainand seastorms dilute the polluting load, but in dry periodsthis pollution causes loss of habitat and deleterious effectson environment. A database has been developed to provide agraphic and mapping display interface of the area studied andto assist the management of the studied fluvial basins.     

中国城市臭氧的形成机理及污染影响因素研究进展

中国城市臭氧(O3)污染问题日趋严重.O3主要来源于汽车尾气及工业排放氮氧化合物(NOx)和挥发性有机物(VOCs)光化学反应生成,少部分来自于平流层的向下传输.文章介绍了城市O3形成机理研究情况,概述了中国城市臭氧污染浓度特征及气象因子、气候变化、前体物等影响因素研究进展情况,并对未来研究方向进行了展望.     

A ten year summary of concurrent ambient water column and sediment toxicity tests in the Chesapeake Bay watershed: 1990-1999

The goal of this study was to identify the relative toxicity ofambient areas in the Chesapeake Bay watershed by using a suiteof concurrent water column and sediment toxicity tests at seventy-five ambient stations in 20 Chesapeake Bay rivers from1990 through 1999. Spatial and temporal variability was examinedat selected locations throughout the 10 yr study. Inorganicand organic contaminants were evaluated in ambient water andsediment concurrently with water column and sediment tests toassess possible causes of toxicity although absolute causalitycan not be established. Multivariate statistical analysis wasused to develop a multiple endpoint toxicity index (TOX-INDEX) at each station for both water column and sediment toxicity data. Water column tests from the 10 yr testing period showed that49% of the time, some degree of toxicity was reported. The mosttoxic sites based on water column results were located inurbanized areas such as the Anacostia River, Elizabeth River andthe Middle River. Water quality criteria for copper, lead,mercury, nickel and zinc were exceeded at one or more of thesesites. Water column toxicity was also reported in localizedareas of the South and Chester Rivers. Both spatial and temporalvariability was reported from the suite of water column toxicitytests. Some degree of sediment toxicity was reported from 62% of the tests conducted during the ten year period. The ElizabethRiver and Baltimore Harbor stations were reported as the most toxic areas based on sediment results.Sediment toxicity guidelines were exceeded for one or more of thefollowing metals at these two locations: arsenic, cadmium,chromium, copper, lead, nickel and zinc. At the Elizabeth Riverstations nine of sixteen semi-volatile organics and two of sevenpesticides measured exceeded the ER-M values in 1990. Ambientsediment toxicity tests in the Elizabeth River in 1996 showedreduced toxicity. Various semi-volatile organics exceeded the ER-M values at a number of Baltimore Harbor sites; pyrene anddibenzo(a,h)anthracene were particularly high at one of thestations (Northwest Harbor). Localized sediment toxicity was alsoreported in the Chester, James, Magothy, Rappahannock, andPotomac Rivers but the link with contaminants was not determined.Both spatial and temporal variability was less for sedimenttoxicity data when compared with water column toxicity data. Acomparison of water column and sediment toxicity data for thevarious stations over the 10 yr study showed that approximatelyhalf the time agreement occurred (either both suite of testsshowed toxicity or neither suite of tests showed toxicity).     

土地利用景观格局对信江水质的影响

利用GIS空间分析与统计方法,从景观尺度和类型尺度两方面分析了流域景观格局空间分异对河流高锰酸盐指数(CODMn)、氨氮、总氮(TN)、化学需氧量(CODCr)的影响。信江流域的景观组成对CODMn、氨氮、TN、CODCr浓度存在显著影响,耕地和建设用地的面积比例与各项指标浓度间存在显著正相关,林地与各指标浓度存在显著负相关。各项指标在流域上游变化不大,而在流域的下游变化显著。从景观尺度上看,流域景观以少数大斑块为主或同一类型的斑块高度连接时,河流中CODMn、氨氮、TN、CODCr浓度较低,水质较好。从流域类型尺度上看,各类型的景观结构对河流中CODMn、氨氮、TN、CODCr浓度影响不同,建设用地以及耕地的集中大面积彼此相临的连片分布会导致河流中CODMn、氨氮、TN、CODCr等浓度的升高,而林地则表现出相反的效应。     

Impervious Surface Area as a Predictor of the Effects of Urbanization on Stream Insect Communities in Maine, U.S.A.

The influence of urbanization on stream insect communities was determined by comparing physical, chemical, and biological characteristics of streams draining 20 catchments with varyinglevels of urban land-cover in Maine (U.S.A). Percent total impervious surface area (PTIA), which was used to quantify urbanland-use, ranged from 1–31% among the study catchments.Taxonomic richness of stream insect communities showed an abruptdecline as PTIA increased above 6%. Streams draining catchmentswith PTIA < 6% had the highest levels of both total insect and EPT (Ephemeroptera + Plecoptera + Trichoptera) taxonomic richness. These streams contained insect communities with a totalrichness averaging 33 taxa in fall and 31 taxa in spring; EPT richness ranged from an average of 15 taxa in fall and 13 taxa inspring. In contrast, none of the streams draining catchments with6–27% PTIA had a total richness > 18 taxa or an EPT richness> 6 taxa. Insect communities in streams with PTIA > 6% were characterized by the absence of pollution-intolerant taxa. The distribution of more pollution-tolerant taxa (e.g.Acerpenna (Ephemeroptera); Paracapnia, Allocapnia (Plecoptera); Optioservus, Stenelmis (Coleoptera); Hydropsyche, Cheumatopsyche (Trichoptera)), however, showed little relation to PTIA. In contrast to the apparent threshold relationship between PTIA and insect taxonomic richness, both habitat qualityand water quality tended to decline as linear functions of PTIA.Our results indicate that, in Maine, an abrupt change in stream insect community structure occurs at a PTIA above a threshold ofapproximately 6% of total catchment area. The measurement of PTIA may provide a valuable tool for predicting thresholds for adverse effects of urbanization on the health of headwater streams in Maine.     

电感耦合等离子体发射光谱法测定土壤和沉积物中硫的适用性研究

为探讨不同消解方式下电感耦合等离子体发射光谱法测定土壤及沉积物中硫的适用性,研究了不同标准物质消解液建立的工作曲线、谱线干扰对分析结果的影响。结合土壤和沉积物来源特点、主成分和待测物含量、干扰物情况,筛选20个典型标准物质分别采用王水水浴法和四酸电热板法进行消解,研究了电感耦合等离子体发射光谱法中3条分析谱线(180.669、181.972、182.562 nm)测定样品中硫的情况。结果表明,0.500 0 g样品经10.0 mL王水(体积比1∶1)沸水浴消解4 h,采用电感耦合等离子体发射光谱仪分析谱线硫181.972 nm建立的18个标准物质工作曲线相关系数高达0.999 9,标准溶液实测浓度相对误差为-6.9%～16%,2个标准物质测定结果的精密度和认定值回收率分别为3.3%～4.3%和90%～96.7%,满足生态环境和自然资源行业的质量控制要求,该方法测定结果与波长色散X射线荧光标准分析方法具有可比性。建立工作曲线的标准物质应考虑待测物和干扰物含量,宜选用标准浓度认定值测试的相对误差而非工作曲线的相关系数作为评价工作曲线优劣的主要技术指标,谱线干扰的理论推导情况和实验结果在趋势...