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1.
Carbon dioxide emissions have accelerated since the signing of the Kyoto Protocol. This discouraging development may partly
be blamed on accelerating world growth and on lags in policy instruments. However, it also raises serious question concerning
whether policies to reduce CO 2 emissions are as effective as generally assumed. In recent years, a considerable number of studies have identified various
feedback mechanisms of climate policies that often erode, and occasionally reinforce, their effectiveness. These studies generally
focus on a few feedback mechanisms at a time, without capturing the entire effect. Partial accounting of policy feedbacks
is common in many climate scenarios. The IPCC, for example, only accounts for direct leakage and rebound effects. This article
attempts to map the aggregate effects of different types of climate policy feedback mechanisms in a cohesive framework. Controlling
feedback effects is essential if the policy measures are to make any difference on a global level. A general conclusion is
that aggregate policy feedback mechanisms tend to make current climate policies much less effective than is generally assumed.
In fact, various policy measures involve a definite risk of ‘backfiring’ and actually increasing CO 2 emissions. This risk is particularly pronounced once effects of climate policies on the pace of innovation in climate technology
are considered. To stand any chance of controlling carbon emissions, it is imperative that feedback mechanisms are integrated
into emission scenarios, targets for emission reduction and implementation of climate policy. In many cases, this will reduce
the scope for subsidies to renewable energy sources, but increase the scope for other measures such as schemes to return carbon
dioxide to the ground and to mitigate emissions of greenhouse gases from wetlands and oceans. A framework that incorporates
policy feedback effects necessitates rethinking the design of the national and regional emission targets. This leads us to
a new way of formulating emission targets that include feedback effects, the global impact target. Once the full climate policy feedback mechanisms are accounted for, there are probably only three main routes in climate
policy that stand a chance of mitigating global warming: (a) returning carbon to the ground, (b) technological leaps in zero-emission
energy technology that make it profitable to leave much carbon in the ground even in Annex II countries and (c) international
agreements that make it more profitable to leave carbon in the ground or in forests. 相似文献
2.
Only recently, within a few decades, have we realized that humanity significantly influences the global environment. In the early 1980s, atmospheric measurements confirmed basic concepts developed a decade earlier. These basic concepts showed that human activities were affecting the ozone layer. Later measurements and theoretical analyses have clearly connected observed changes in ozone to human-related increases of chlorine and bromine in the stratosphere. As a result of prompt international policy agreements, the combined abundances of ozone-depleting compounds peaked in 1994 and ozone is already beginning a slow path to recovery. A much more difficult problem confronting humanity is the impact of increasing levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases on global climate. The processes that connect greenhouse gas emissions to climate are very complex. This complexity has limited our ability to make a definitive projection of future climate change. Nevertheless, the range of projected climate change shows that global warming has the potential to severely impact human welfare and our planet as a whole. This paper evaluates the state of the scientific understanding of the global change issues, their potential impacts, and the relationships of scientific understanding to policy considerations. 相似文献
3.
Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to avert or slow climate change has become an increasingly important policy issue in developing countries such as Korea, as well as in developed countries. This paper uses the willingness to pay survey technique to assess the benefits that would ensue from a proposed OHO emissions reduction policy. It aims to provide at least a preliminary evaluation of the policy, using Korea as a specific case study. Respondents overall accepted the contingent market and were on average willing to contribute a significant amount toward the GHG emissions reduction policy. This willingness varies according to respondents' individual characteristics and environmental concerns. Finally, this study discusses the importance of including the climate change problem in cost—benefit analysis and presents the policy implications of the results. 相似文献
4.
Combustion processes have inherent characteristics that lead to the release in the environment of both gaseous and particulate pollutants that have primary and secondary impacts on air quality, human health, and climate. The emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels and biofuels and their atmospheric impacts are reviewed here with attention given to the emissions of the currently regulated pollutant gasses, primary aerosols, and secondary aerosol precursors as well as the emissions of non-regulated pollutants. Fuels ranging from coal, petroleum, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), natural gas, as well as the biofuels; ethanol, methanol, methyl tertiary-butyl ether (MTBE), ethyl tertiary-butyl ether (ETBE), and biodiesel, are discussed in terms of the known air quality and climate impacts of the currently regulated pollutants. The potential importance of the non-regulated emissions of both gasses and aerosols in air quality issues and climate is also discussed with principal focus on aldehydes and other oxygenated organics, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and nitrated organics. The connection between air quality and climate change is also addressed with attention given to ozone and aerosols as potentially important greenhouse species. 相似文献
5.
To mitigate climate change, governments ranging from city to multi-national have adopted greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets. While the location of GHG reductions does not affect their climate benefits, it can impact human health benefits associated with co-emitted pollutants. Here, an advanced modeling framework is used to explore how subnational level GHG targets influence air pollutant co-benefits from ground level ozone and fine particulate matter. Two carbon policy scenarios are analyzed, each reducing the same total amount of GHG emissions in the Northeast US: an economy-wide Cap and Trade (CAT) program reducing emissions from all sectors of the economy, and a Clean Energy Standard (CES) reducing emissions from the electricity sector only. Results suggest that a regional CES policy will cost about 10 times more than a CAT policy. Despite having the same regional targets in the Northeast, carbon leakage to non-capped regions varies between policies. Consequently, a regional CAT policy will result in national carbon reductions that are over six times greater than the carbon reduced by the CES in 2030. Monetized regional human health benefits of the CAT and CES policies are 844% and 185% of the costs of each policy, respectively. Benefits for both policies are thus estimated to exceed their costs in the Northeast US. The estimated value of human health co-benefits associated with air pollution reductions for the CES scenario is two times that of the CAT scenario. Implications: In this research, an advanced modeling framework is used to determine the potential impacts of regional carbon policies on air pollution co-benefits associated with ground level ozone and fine particulate matter. Study results show that spatially heterogeneous GHG policies have the potential to create areas of air pollution dis-benefit. It is also shown that monetized human health benefits within the area covered by policy may be larger than the model estimated cost of the policy. These findings are of particular interest both as U.S. states work to develop plans to meet state-level carbon emissions reduction targets set by the EPA through the Clean Power Plan, and in the absence of comprehensive national carbon policy. 相似文献
6.
工业园区贡献了全国过半的工业产值和近31%的碳排放量,是我国应对气候变化实现双碳目标的重要战场,然而当前尚未形成针对工业园区碳排放核算的规范体系。本研究在温室气体清单编制现有方法基础上,构建针对工业园区的碳排放核算体系,并利用此核算体系对重庆市某工业园区2016—2020年碳排放量进行了核算实证研究,且通过LMDI分解模型分析该园区碳排放变动的影响因素。结果表明,该园区在“十三五”期间碳排放呈逐年增长趋势,化石燃料燃烧是园区内最主要的碳排放源,占比达83.5%,化工行业碳排放在该园区所有行业中占比最大 (68.9%) ,园区碳排放的主要驱动因素是能源强度,效应贡献率为64.7%。据此,本研究提出了针对该园区的降碳路径,并通过实证分析后探讨了工业园区碳排放核算方法体系的规范化问题,以期为我国工业园区的碳减排工作提供参考。 相似文献
7.
Biological and physical processes in the Arctic system operate at various temporal and spatial scales to impact large-scale feedbacks and interactions with the earth system. There are four main potential feedback mechanisms between the impacts of climate change on the Arctic and the global climate system: albedo, greenhouse gas emissions or uptake by ecosystems, greenhouse gas emissions from methane hydrates, and increased freshwater fluxes that could affect the thermohaline circulation. All these feedbacks are controlled to some extent by changes in ecosystem distribution and character and particularly by large-scale movement of vegetation zones. Indications from a few, full annual measurements of CO2 fluxes are that currently the source areas exceed sink areas in geographical distribution. The little available information on CH4 sources indicates that emissions at the landscape level are of great importance for the total greenhouse balance of the circumpolar North. Energy and water balances of Arctic landscapes are also important feedback mechanisms in a changing climate. Increasing density and spatial expansion of vegetation will cause a lowering of the albedo and more energy to be absorbed on the ground. This effect is likely to exceed the negative feedback of increased C sequestration in greater primary productivity resulting from the displacements of areas of polar desert by tundra, and areas of tundra by forest. The degradation of permafrost has complex consequences for trace gas dynamics. In areas of discontinuous permafrost, warming, will lead to a complete loss of the permafrost. Depending on local hydrological conditions this may in turn lead to a wetting or drying of the environment with subsequent implications for greenhouse gas fluxes. Overall, the complex interactions between processes contributing to feedbacks, variability over time and space in these processes, and insufficient data have generated considerable uncertainties in estimating the net effects of climate change on terrestrial feedbacks to the climate system. This uncertainty applies to magnitude, and even direction of some of the feedbacks. 相似文献
8.
Mounting research highlights the contribution of ecosystem services provided by urban forests to quality of life in cities, yet these services are rarely explicitly considered in environmental policy targets. We quantify regulating services provided by urban forests and evaluate their contribution to comply with policy targets of air quality and climate change mitigation in the municipality of Barcelona, Spain. We apply the i-Tree Eco model to quantify in biophysical and monetary terms the ecosystem services “air purification,” “global climate regulation,” and the ecosystem disservice “air pollution” associated with biogenic emissions. Our results show that the contribution of urban forests regulating services to abate pollution is substantial in absolute terms, yet modest when compared to overall city levels of air pollution and GHG emissions. We conclude that in order to be effective, green infrastructure-based efforts to offset urban pollution at the municipal level have to be coordinated with territorial policies at broader spatial scales. 相似文献
9.
Owing to their relative underdevelopment, the 'cohesion' countries of the European Union have been allowed to increase emissions above the 1990 base within the EU 'envelope'. However, they face daunting challenges in meeting the agreed targets, because it requires breaking the link between rising gross domestic product and rising energy consumption at a relatively early stage in the economic development cycle. This paper examines the extreme case of Ireland, which is experiencing the most rapid growth in the EU. It shows that Ireland has already reached its emissions ceiling. The best opportunities for reducing emissions lie in energy supply, industry, and the household sector. A mix of policy instruments is required. Emissions trading seems to be the most effective policy instrument for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from energy supply and large industry. Such a policy would provide a stimulus for continuous improvement, without which Ireland's limit will be breached. 相似文献
10.
Emissions of exhaust gases and particles from oceangoing ships are a significant and growing contributor to the total emissions from the transportation sector. We present an assessment of the contribution of gaseous and particulate emissions from oceangoing shipping to anthropogenic emissions and air quality. We also assess the degradation in human health and climate change created by these emissions. Regulating ship emissions requires comprehensive knowledge of current fuel consumption and emissions, understanding of their impact on atmospheric composition and climate, and projections of potential future evolutions and mitigation options. Nearly 70% of ship emissions occur within 400 km of coastlines, causing air quality problems through the formation of ground-level ozone, sulphur emissions and particulate matter in coastal areas and harbours with heavy traffic. Furthermore, ozone and aerosol precursor emissions as well as their derivative species from ships may be transported in the atmosphere over several hundreds of kilometres, and thus contribute to air quality problems further inland, even though they are emitted at sea. In addition, ship emissions impact climate. Recent studies indicate that the cooling due to altered clouds far outweighs the warming effects from greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO 2) or ozone from shipping, overall causing a negative present-day radiative forcing (RF). Current efforts to reduce sulphur and other pollutants from shipping may modify this. However, given the short residence time of sulphate compared to CO 2, the climate response from sulphate is of the order decades while that of CO 2 is centuries. The climatic trade-off between positive and negative radiative forcing is still a topic of scientific research, but from what is currently known, a simple cancellation of global mean forcing components is potentially inappropriate and a more comprehensive assessment metric is required. The CO 2 equivalent emissions using the global temperature change potential (GTP) metric indicate that after 50 years the net global mean effect of current emissions is close to zero through cancellation of warming by CO 2 and cooling by sulphate and nitrogen oxides. 相似文献
11.
Climate change has considerably dominated science-policy dialogue, public debate, and subsequently environmental policies since the three “Rio Conventions” were born. This has led to practically independent courses of action of climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation actions, neglecting potential conflicts among outcomes and with missed opportunities for synergistic measures. Transformative governance principles have been proposed to overcome these limitations. Using a transformative governance lens, we use the case of the Norwegian "Climate Cure 2030" for the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector to, first, illustrate the mechanisms that have led to the choice of climate mitigation measures; second, to analyze the potential consequences of these measures on biodiversity and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; and, third, to evaluate alternative measures with potential positive outcomes for biodiversity and GHG emissions/removals. We point to some mechanisms that could support the implementation of these positive actions. Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01679-8. 相似文献
12.
Singapore has many environmental accomplishments to its credit. Accessible data on air quality indicates that all criteria pollutants satisfy both U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and World Health Organization (WHO) air quality standards and guidelines, respectively. The exception is PM 2.5 (particles with an aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 μm), which is not currently considered a criteria pollutant in Singapore but may potentially be the major local air pollution problem and cause for health concern. Levels of other airborne pollutants as well as their physical and chemical processes associated with local formation, transformation, dispersion, and deposition are not known. According to available emission inventories, Singapore's contribution to the total atmospheric pollution and carbon budget at the regional and global scales is small. Emissions per unit gross domestic product (GDP) are low compared with other countries, although Singapore's per-capita GDP and per-capita emissions are among the highest in the world. Some information is available on health effects, but the impacts on the ecosystem and the complex interactions of air pollution and climate change at a regional level are also unknown. This article reviews existing available information on atmospheric pollution and greenhouse gas emissions and proposes a multipollutant approach to greenhouse gas mitigation and local air quality. Singapore, by reducing its per-capita emissions, increasing the availability of information (e.g., through regularly publishing hourly and/or daily PM 2.5 concentrations) and developing a research agenda in this area, would likely be seen to be a model of a high-density, livable, and sustainable city in Southeast Asia and other tropical regions worldwide. Implications Singapore is widely recognized for its environmental achievements and often cited as a model of a high-density, livable, and sustainable city. This article reviews available information with the aim to provide a reference for future scientific research of strategic relevance for Singapore's air quality and greenhouse gas mitigation management under a multipollutant framework. However, the limited publicly accessible data and little scientific information prevent a comprehensive assessment of the local air quality and greenhouse gas emissions. Singapore's dynamic economy and strong profile in advanced science and technological innovation have the potential to enhance the research agenda in this area, which is not yet well developed in tropical cities. 相似文献
13.
In the last two decades, there has been a rich debate about the environmental degradation that results from exposure to solid urban waste. Growing public concern with environmental issues has led to the implementation of various strategic plans for waste management in several developed countries, especially in the European Union. In this paper, the relationships were assessed between economic growth, renewable energy extraction and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the waste sector. The Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis was analysed for the member states of the European Union, in the presence of electricity generation, landfill and GHG emissions for the period 1995 to 2012. The results revealed that there is no inverted-U-shaped relationship between income and GHG emissions in European Union countries. The renewable fuel extracted from waste contributes to a reduction in GHG, and although the electricity produced also increases emissions somewhat, they would be far greater if the waste-based generation of renewable energy did not take place. The waste sector needs to strengthen its political, economic, institutional and social communication instruments to meet its aims for mitigating the levels of pollutants generated by European economies. To achieve the objectives of the Horizon 2020 programme, currently in force in the countries of the European Union, it will be necessary to increase the share of renewable energy in the energy mix. 相似文献
14.
Human-induced urban growth and sprawl have implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that may not be included in conventional GHG accounting methods. Improved understanding of this issue requires use of interactive, spatial-explicit social–ecological systems modeling. This paper develops a comprehensive approach to modeling GHG emissions from urban developments, considering Stockholm County, Sweden as a case study. GHG projections to 2040 with a social–ecological system model yield overall greater emissions than simple extrapolations in official climate action planning. The most pronounced difference in emissions (39% higher) from energy use single-residence buildings resulting from urban sprawl. And this difference is not accounted for in the simple extrapolations. Scenario results indicate that a zoning policy, restricting urban development in certain areas, can mitigate 72% of the total emission effects of the model-projected urban sprawl. The study outcomes include a decision support interface for communicating results and policy implications with policymakers. 相似文献
15.
HFC-23 (trifluoromethane, fluoroform, CHF 3) is a powerful greenhouse gas that is formed at the reactor stage of the manufacture of HCFC-22 (chlorodifluoromethane, CHClF 2). The amount formed depends on the conditions used in the manufacturing process and, for individual plants, lies between 1% and 4% of the production of HCFC-22. While it is possible to reduce the formation of HFC-23 by optimising process conditions, it is not possible to eliminate its production. This requires destruction, generally by thermal oxidation. Under the Kyoto Protocol, developed countries have obligations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and, in the developing world, there are projects under the Clean Development Mechanism for the incineration of HFC-23 waste streams. These should lead to a reduction in average global emission factors relative to production of HCFC-22. We present estimates of global production of HCFC-22 up to the year 2015 and also the calculated range of emissions of HFC-23 that may be consequences of this. In terms of the effect on climate change, the atmospheric burden of HFC-23 accumulated from emissions is calculated to contribute between 0.1% and 0.2% of the radiative forcing of climate in 2015. Annual emissions of HFC-23 would be equivalent to between 284 and 28 million tonnes of CO 2 in that year, when total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are predicted to lie between 46,000 million and 59,000 million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent. 相似文献
16.
Heavily featured over the last few years in global research and policy agreements, Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) remain however exposed to much debate over the ways their current design and ability to achieve both environmental goals and social needs. As they become mainstream climate mitigation and adaptation options, their capacity to deliver expected benefits, especially when contemplating equity and justice, is at least uncertain. Through a critical review of existing debates and perspectives on NBS, this paper questions their uptake and points at the frequent embeddedness of NBS in speculative and elite-based development paths in both urban and rural areas. We present an alternative, justice-oriented approach to NBS so that projects can avoid nature-enable dispossession and instead build nature-inspired justice that prioritizes the needs, identities, and livelihoods of the most ecologically and socially vulnerable residents. 相似文献
17.
Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Municipal solid waste (MSW) is regarded to be an important source of greenhouse gas emissions, which could result in a significant impact on climate... 相似文献
18.
This paper assesses the feasibility of using atmospheric measurement of fluorinated greenhouse gases (HFCs, PFCs and SF6) for the review and verification of greenhouse gas inventories provided by national governments. For this purpose, available data were compiled. It was found that atmospheric measurements of these gases are available and provide an indication of global annual emissions with sufficient certainty to reach the following conclusions: Within the uncertainty of the method, it was found that emissions of HFC-23, a by-product of HCFC-22 production, as obtained from atmospheric measurements did not decrease as fast, as the countries have reported. In contrast, SF6 concentrations in the atmosphere suggest higher emissions than reported by countries. Regional emission estimates from atmospheric measurements are still in a more pioneering state and cannot be compared to national estimates. Intensified efforts to measure HFCs, PFCs and SF6 in the atmosphere are recommended. 相似文献
19.
Focusing on reduction in energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, a life-cycle-based analysis tool has been developed. The energy analysis program (EAP) is a computer program for determining energy use and greenhouse gas emissions related to household consumption items, using a hybrid calculation method. EAP consists of a number of fill-in screens corresponding to steps in the hybrid method, which in their turn correspond to different stages in life-cycles of consumer goods. The database incorporated in EAP comprises data about energy use and emissions of the main greenhouse gases (CO 2, CH 4and N 2O) concerning materials, economic sectors, means of transport, etc. The use of the program in several projects showed the applicability and usefulness of EAP in research and policy. In this article, EAP is applied to food: French beans as a metaphor for fruit and vegetables. 相似文献
20.
It is estimated that there is sufficient in-state “technically” recoverable biomass to support nearly 4000 MW of bioelectricity generation capacity. This study assesses the emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants and resulting air quality impacts of new and existing bioenergy capacity throughout the state of California, focusing on feedstocks and advanced technologies utilizing biomass resources predominant in each region. The options for bioresources include the production of bioelectricity and renewable natural gas (NG). Emissions of criteria pollutants and greenhouse gases are quantified for a set of scenarios that span the emission factors for power generation and the use of renewable natural gas for vehicle fueling. Emissions are input to the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to predict regional and statewide temporal air quality impacts from the biopower scenarios. With current technology and at the emission levels of current installations, maximum bioelectricity production could increase nitrogen oxide (NO x) emissions by 10% in 2020, which would cause increases in ozone and particulate matter concentrations in large areas of California. Technology upgrades would achieve the lowest criteria pollutant emissions. Conversion of biomass to compressed NG (CNG) for vehicles would achieve comparable emission reductions of criteria pollutants and minimize emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). Air quality modeling of biomass scenarios suggest that applying technological changes and emission controls would minimize the air quality impacts of bioelectricity generation. And a shift from bioelectricity production to CNG production for vehicles would reduce air quality impacts further. From a co-benefits standpoint, CNG production for vehicles appears to provide the best benefits in terms of GHG emissions and air quality. Implications:?This investigation provides a consistent analysis of air quality impacts and greenhouse gas emissions for scenarios examining increased biomass use. Further work involving economic assessment, seasonal or annual emissions and air quality modeling, and potential exposure analysis would help inform policy makers and industry with respect to further development and direction of biomass policy and bioenergy technology alternatives needed to meet energy and environmental goals in California. 相似文献
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