中国粮食生产潜力开发与资源,环境协调发展思路及对策

本文在分析我国粮食生产赖以发展的资源和环境条件的基础上,结合农业生产和科学研究实践,认为制约我国粮食生产持续增长的主要生产性因素是资源短缺及环境问题,出路在于提高自然资源及物质投入的利用效率,进而提出了我国粮食生产潜力开发与资源、环境协调发展的基本思路和途径,认为现阶段的主要任务是提高粮食单产。最后根据我国资源环境及经济状况的区域分布特征,提出东、中、西三大经济带粮食生产持续增长的相应对策。     

中国未来的粮食安全与生态可持续性问题研究——基于粮食生产过程生态足迹的实证分析

自然资源与农业生态可持续开发是保障农业生产与粮食安全可持续发展的基础。随着我国人口的增长以及人们生活水平的提高,粮食需求量逐年增加。这不但加剧了我国人多地少的矛盾,还给我国农业资源与生态的可持续发展带来了挑战。利用计量模型测算出我国人口高峰时粮食安全背景下粮食生产活动的生态足迹,然后依据生态足迹指数法判断其生态可持续性状况。结果显示,按照目前的粮食生产模式依靠自给实现粮食安全,我国人均生态足迹指数将出现负值。这意味着我国农业生态将处于不可持续的状态。解决我国“粮食 耕地”矛盾与“粮食 生态”矛盾,实现粮食安全与农业生态的协调可持续发展,一方面需要把我国目前依靠要素投入的粗放式粮食生产模式转向生态友好型的种植模式;另一方面需要改变我国依靠自给的粮食安全保障模式,通过适当降低我国的粮食自给率、增加粮食进口缓解我国农业资源与生态环境的压力。这对我国未来的农业发展道路以及粮食安全政策都具有重要的参考价值     

共生视角下中国区域“水-能源-粮食”复合系统适配性评估

水资源、能源和粮食是人类生存发展的基础资源,三者之间的交互关系被称为“水-能源-粮食”纽带。中国水资源、能源和粮食(耕地)资源时空分布不匹配,影响资源流动效率。随着资源供需矛盾加剧,资源管理方式亟需从“单资源”规划向“多资源”协同转变,因此,开展“水-能源-粮食”复合系统适配性评估对推动多资源协同管理具有重要意义。本文引入共生理论,构建“水-能源-粮食”系统共生架构,提出区域“水-能源-粮食”系统适配概念,将“水-能源-粮食”系统适配性分解为稳定性、协调性和可持续性,基于压力-状态-影响-响应(PSIR)模型构建适配性评估指标体系,对2000—2016年我国区域“水-能源-粮食”系统适配性进行综合评估。研究表明:①可持续性对“水-能源-粮食”复合系统适配性影响最大,协调性是适配性提升的短板,稳定性是适配性的重要基础。②我国“水-能源-粮食”复合系统的整体适配性、协调性、可持续性水平呈上升趋势,增长速度先快后慢,稳定性指数小幅波动,趋于平稳。③我国“水-能源-粮食”复合系统适配性时空分异特征明显,东北、东部地区的适配性水平相对较高,主要呈上升趋势;中部、西部地区的适配性水平相对较低,主要呈下降趋势。根据评估结果,提出以下建议:①加强水资源、能源、农业、土地等多部门协同,增加科技、水利、能源等方面投资力度,协调水-能源、水-粮食和能源-粮食关系,提高水资源、能源和粮食系统之间转化效率。②引导自然资源从富集区域向匮乏区域流动,引导高端产业、先进技术和投资等社会资源从发达地区向自然资源富集区域转移,缓解资源匮乏区供需矛盾,提高资源附加值,促进区域协同发展。     

关于提高我国自然资源物权化程度的思考

自然资源物权是随着环境资源法和物权法的发展而逐渐进入人们视野的。与传统物权相比，自然资源物权是一组性质有别的权利总称．它在本质上具有物权属性．但也包含准物权的内容。可将其分为土地资源物权和其它自然资源物权。我国的自然资源物权制度主要存在所有权虚化和抽象化、使用权物权化程度不高、土地资源使用权未得到切实保障等缺陷。应当通过强化和实现自然资源所有权、积极推进自然资源使用权物权化来完善我国自然资源物权制度。在具体的制度设计上。必须保障自然资源国家所有权的有效实现，改进和完善自然资源的集体所有权；同时也要推进土地使用权和其它自然资源使用权的物权化，特别是扩大自然资源物权中公民使用权的范围．推进自然资源物权的具体化和制度化。     

基于粮食-能源-水关联关系的风险管控研究进展

粮食、能源与水三者之间由于相互需求与相互影响,已形成了密切而复杂的关联关系,同时还给生态环境、自然资源、公众健康带来了潜在风险。因此基于关联关系的视角,利用综合的手段来对粮食-能源-水系统的风险进行分析和调控,对我国目前环境风险管理具有重要意义。本文在查阅相关研究成果的基础上,分别从两两关联、三者关联、三者关联系统相关的风险研究等方面对粮食-能源-水关联系统及相关风险的研究进展进行系统梳理和归纳总结,总结发现:已有研究较多关注两两之间关联性的定量测算和相关治理措施,缺乏将三者看作一个整体系统的量化研究,且基于流域层面等较小尺度的研究方法还相对不够成熟。在三者关联的风险研究方面,已有部分从能源-水关联角度开展的风险研究,但从三者整体关联系统角度开展的风险研究还比较少,且所选用的风险表征指标较为单一。另外,已有针对粮食-能源-水关联系统的研究仅仅是单向的风险评估,还缺乏根据风险评估结果对三者关联系统进行动态反馈调控等内容。在此基础上,本文提出基于粮食-能源-水关联系统的风险管控研究框架及核心研究议题,主要包括构建粮食、能源、水三者之间的耦合模型;通过量化耦合系统产生的压力和污染,运用多指标表征耦合系统所带来的风险,进而建立粮食-能源-水关联系统与风险的关联传导机制;并基于风险评估结果和风险管理的关联关系建立动态调节与反馈机制,从而为基于粮食-能源-水关联的区域环境风险管控提供科学依据。     

论可持续发展视野下自然资源的非财产性

在近代以来权利观念的主导下,自然资源被沦为人类占有、控制的财产,因而导致了现代环境危机的爆发,进而催生了可持续发展观念。把自然资源视为财产实际上是一种错误认识,并且这一错误认识得到人们常识和法律文本的"支持"。本文的主要目的就是纠正这种错误认识,进而为保护人类赖以生存的自然环境、实现人类的可持续发展探寻新的法律路径。文章主要运用理论分析与价值判断的方法,证明可持续发展观念要求为保护自然资源的生态价值而对自然资源经济价值的开发利用进行限制,强调自然资源的生态完好性。本文的基本结论是,在可持续发展的视野下,自然资源实际上就是整个地球的生态系统,它是人类赖以生存的衣食父母和摇篮,而不是人类的财产。这一结论应该是人们处理自然资源开发利用关系的基础性前提,同时也是我们进一步探索可持续发展视野下有关自然资源的权利义务关系的起点。     

资源利用与评估的方法

本文提出了所有自然资源都可以用■度量的观点,给出了评价自然资源消耗的生态价值系数表达式,借助它可以优化自然资源的利用。     

基于要素报酬的农户自然资源依赖度评价研究——以云南省六个自然保护区为例

农户对自然资源的利用是自然保护区管理中的一个基础性问题,评价农户生计对自然资源的依赖程度对于协调生态保护与社区发展之间的关系具有重要意义。基于此,本文从自然资源要素报酬视角改进了农户自然资源依赖度评价方法,然后运用数理经济模型对其影响因素进行理论分析,最后基于对云南省六个自然保护区172个农户的调研数据进行了实证分析。结果显示:(1)改进了农户雇用资本和劳动力时的农户收入核算范围,分别以自然资源相关活动收入与自然资源要素报酬占农户总收入的比重形成了全要素自然资源依赖度评价指标和单要素自然资源依赖度评价指标。(2)基于经济理论构建了农户生产要素配置模型,理论上分析了外生参数对自然资源依赖度的影响,自然资源相关生产活动产出的价格越高、自然资源数量越大,则农户自然资源依赖度越高;农户劳动力数量越高、劳动力工资越高,则农户自然资源依赖度越低,这些变量对两种依赖度的影响方向一致。(3)云南省六个自然保护区农户自然资源依赖度评价及其影响因素分析表明,全要素自然资源依赖度和单要素自然资源依赖度的平均值分别是78.56%、44.62%;人均耕地面积、年平均气温、病人数比重对农户自然资源依赖度具有显著正向影响,而家庭最高受教育年数、有村干部、劳动力比重、劳动力外出打工比重、城镇化率、参与保护区管理、参与保护区培训有显著负向影响,实证分析结果与理论分析基本一致。提高自然保护区所在区域的经济发展水平、提高农村地区教育水平、加强对农户的就业技能培训、加强自然保护区管理中的社区参与都能有效降低农户的自然资源依赖度,有利于协调生态保护与社区发展之间的关系。最后,基于自然资源要素报酬的单要素自然资源依赖度评价指标,具有经济理论上的一致性,但是由于资本、劳动力机会成本无法直接观察而降低了其可操作性并使得结果具有较大误差,这是未来进一步研究时需要注意的问题。     

中国自然资源资产负债表框架体系研究——以SEEA2012、SNA2008和国家资产负债表为基础的一种思路

自然资源资产负债表反映的是一国或地区在某一时点上对于自然资源环境的权利义务状态,可以看成是某一特定时点生态责任主体对所拥有的自然资源资产价值和所承担的生态环境负债所拍的一张"快照"。首先,本文以DPSIR链理论模型、环境经济核算体系(SEEA2012)、国民经济核算体系(SNA2008)国家资产负债表为理论基础,构建了自然资源资产负债表的理论框架。对经济和环境信息进行整合,需要采用一种跨学科方法。依照《中华人民共和国统计法》的要求,在国民经济核算体系(SNA)中需要编制国民资产负债综合表一张,机构部门资产负债表四张。国家资产负债表方法,就是以一国或一国政府为会计主体,通过账户整合将分散的分类核算账户纳入统一的资产负债权益框架,以期初和期末的资产、负债及净资产存量等形式,综合反映出一国物质财富"家底"的编报方法与技术体系。采用国家资产负债表的方法对自然资源总体情况进行信息披露,就是利用会计学中的资产负债表工具,客观全面反映生态责任主体在某一时点的自然资源静态存量情况,显示某一时间上自然资源资产的"家底"和结构,反映一定时间内的自然资产存量的变化。自然资源资产负债表是充分利用上述理论基础和核算方法进行自然资源信息披露的一种方式。接着,本文采用国家资产负债表的编制方法和技术手段,构建了以资产、负债和净资产为会计要素的自然资源资产负债表,以全面反映自然资源环境"家底"。自然资源资产是指天然存在、有使用价值、产权明确、可提高人类当前和未来福利的自然环境因素的总和;自然资源负债从经济本质上看,是会计主体在某一时点上应该承担的自然资源"现时义务",该"现时义务"是人类在利用自然资源过程中所承担的能以货币计量、需以资产或劳务偿付的环境责任;自然资源净资产,是一国或地区所拥有的全部自然财富总和,它在数量上应该等于自然资源资产减去自然资源负债,即全部自然资源资产减去全部自然资源负债后的净值。最后,本文提出了推进自然资源行政管理改革、建立和完善自然资源台账系统、建立自然资源经营权交易市场、颁布自然资源计量核算准则体系等政策配套措施。     

中国自然资源资产负债表编制及运用的关键问题

完善的自然资源资产负债表编制体系,能为国家和各级政府摸清“家底”,进行宏观经济管理、资源配置等工作提供重要的数据信息。党的十八届三中全会提出探索编制自然资源资产负债表之后,与此相关的理论研究迅速增加,但针对自然资源资产负债表编制和运用的理论与实践仍存在一些模糊认识;诸如自然资源负债等难以确定的问题。着眼于此,本文对我国自然资源资产负债表的编制现状进行了认真的思考,总结出自然资源资产负债表编制和运用的六个关键问题,即对国际规范SEEA2012和SNA2008的认识问题,对以县级单位为起点的编制主体的认识问题,对单式和复式表格根本区别的认识问题,对实物量和价值量转换难点的认识问题,对自然资源资产负债表信息渠道与平台建设的认识问题,对自然资源资产负债表编制中各部门权责关系的认识问题。以此为基础,本文从国际做法和国内实践两个角度进行了分析,并提出了本文观点:编制和运用自然资源资产负债表,应全面理解、充分借鉴SEEA2012和SNA2008的国际规范;确立以县级及以下政府层级为起点的编制主体;转变为“从单式到复式”的编表思路,坚持使用复式表格;迈出实物量向价值量转化的重要一步,重视价值量核算;建设自然资源数据收集的信息渠道与平台;处理好自然资源资产负债表编制中各部门间的权责关系。本文研究有利于推进自然资源资产负债表编制与运用工作,发挥自然资源资产负债表在我国的生态文明建设中的重要作用。     

Exploring the efficiency of bias corrections of regional climate model output for the assessment of future crop yields in Europe

Excessive summer drying and reduced growing season length are expected to reduce European crop yields in future. This may be partly compensated by adapted crop management, increased CO₂ concentration and technological development. For food security, changes in regional to continental crop yield variability may be more important than changes in mean yields. The assessment of changes in regional and larger scale crop variability requires high resolution and spatially consistent future weather, matching a specific climate scenario. Such data could be derived from regional climate models (RCMs), which provide changes in weather patterns. In general, RCM output is heavily biased with respect to observations. Due to the strong nonlinear relation between meteorological input and crop yields, the application of this biased output may result in large biases in the simulated crop yield changes. The use of RCM output only makes sense after sufficient bias correction. This study explores how RCM output can be bias corrected for the assessment of changes in European and subregional scale crop yield variability due to climate change. For this, output of the RCM RACMO of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute was bias corrected and applied within the crop simulation model WOrld FOod STudies to simulate potential and water limited yields of three divergent crops: winter wheat, maize and sugar beets. The bias correction appeared necessary to successfully reproduce the mean yields as simulated with observational data. It also substantially improved the year-to-year variability of seasonal precipitation and radiation within RACMO, but some bias in the interannual variability remained. This is caused by the fact that the applied correction focuses on mean and daily variability. The interannual variability of growing season length, and as a consequence the potential yields too, appeared even deteriorated. Projected decrease in mean crop yields is well in line with earlier studies. No significant change in crop yield variability was found. Yet, only one RCM is analysed in this study, and it is recommended to extend this study with more climate models and a slightly adjusted bias correction taking into account the variability of larger time scales as well.     

南京市郊农业生态系统建设与发展

南京市处于长江流域下游，是我国重要的农业生产基地，也是全国经济发达地区之一。它既有近郊的蔬菜生产，又有远郊的粮食作物种植，农田生态类型与农、牧、副的复合生态类型多种多样，而且其生产潜力很大。本文对南京市郊生态系统的建设进行分析研究，并着重探讨生态系统建设模式及土地合理利用，为建立合理的南京市郊区农业生态系统提供依据。     

Decision support model to select crop pattern for sustainable agricultural practices using fuzzy MCDM

The crop pattern has a significant impact on the feasibility of sustainable agricultural practices. Selected crop pattern influences environmental and economic condition and affects sustainability profoundly in agricultural practices. Hence, a careful intervention is required in the selection of an optimal crop pattern for sustainable agricultural practices. Selection of a particular set of crop pattern depends on many criteria that may vary from place to place thus pose challenges in deciding an optimum crop pattern. The present research focuses on the crop selection pattern in Indian environment that considers comprehensive criteria related to sustainable farming practices. Based on the in-depth review of the literature and experts opinion, comprehensive criteria related to sustainable farming practices for Ravi season crop are identified. Total twelve criteria covering socioeconomic conditions, soil and water conditions, environmental and climatic conditions are earmarked and taken into account for eight most commonly grown crops in Ravi season and later on modeled to determine the crop pattern for most needed sustainability. A fuzzy-based multi-criteria decision-making model has been developed considering the Indian farming system. The scarce resources availability to Indian farmers poses many challenges to practice farming with most needed sustainability. The present research will be useful in the area of Indian farming practices in particular and global farming practices in general. It will also help stakeholders in their cost effective decision making for better crop productivity leading to sustainable farming practices. Additionally, the state policy makers will be able to formulate effective state driven sustainable farming policy to enhance its stake in gross domestic product to become self-reliance.     

我国粮食主产区耕地产出效率研究

根据我国粮食主产区11个省1990~2004年地均种植业产值、地均劳动力及各种农业生产物质的投入情况,以耕地产出效率为主要研究对象,运用随机前沿生产函数方法计算出各省历年来的耕地产出效率值。研究表明：现阶段我国耕地经营仍以人力与物质成本的投入为主。与机械化生产相比,化肥等化学和人力密集型的生产方式更能与小规模农户经营的体制相适应;我国耕地产出效率的整体水平不高,耕地的实际产出与现有投入水平下的潜在产出之间存在较大差距;省际间耕地产出效率与经济发展水平没有必然联系,且其差距有着缩小的趋势;近15年来,我国耕地产出效率虽然逐渐提高,但提高的速率却在下降。表明我国现阶段的农业高产需要依靠大量物质投入来维持,生产成本越来越高,继续增加物质上的投入对耕地产出效率的提高意义不大。因此,充分、合理地利用现有资源和技术条件,依靠生物技术的进步,即作物品种的改良来提高耕地的产出,是提高我国耕地产出效率、增加农民收入的重要途径。     

施氮对稻麦轮作系统综合增温潜势的影响

采用典型区域田间试验结合生物地球化学模型（DNDC模型）,以上海市崇明岛为例对稻麦轮作系统作物产量和温室气体排放进行了模拟研究。结果表明：DNDC模型能较好地模拟田间实测到的稻麦轮作系统温室气体排放通量。在常规用量的80%~150%之间增施氮肥对作物产量无显著增加,但稻麦轮作系统综合温室效应呈递增趋势。东滩农业园区稻麦轮作系统最优施氮量为常规用量的6298%,此时单位产量增温潜势（Global Warming Potential,GWP）最小,作物产量为12 8775 kg/(hm2〖DK〗·a),综合温室效应较常规施氮降低3670%。长江下游地区稻麦两熟制农业生态系统能够通过合理控制农田氮肥用量减少温室气体排放净通量,降低作物单位产量GWP     

The Effect of Soil Cultivation on the Humus State of Gray Forest Soil in the Middle Urals

The results of studies on the humus state of soils in agrosystems of the Middle Urals (1984–1997) are described. It is shown that the change of agricultural technologies (crop rotation, doses of organic fertilizers, etc.) transforms environmental conditions and the direction of humus formation processes. Parameters such as the concentrations of humus and water-soluble carbon and soil potential for humus accumulation reliably characterize the humus state of arable soil and allow the mobility and migration rate of humic substances to be monitored.     

The Potential of Soil Carbon Sequestration Through Improved Management Practices in Norway

The study was conducted to assess the potential of Norwegian agricultural ecosystems to sequester carbon (C) based on the data from some long-term agronomic and land use experiments. The total emission of CO₂ in Norway in 1998 was 41.4 million metric ton (MMT), of which agriculture contributed only 0.157 MMT, or <0.4% of the total emissions. With regards to methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) gases, however, agricultural activities contributed 32.5% and 51.3% of their respective emissions in Norway. The soil organic carbon (SOC) losses associated with accelerated soil erosion in Norway are estimated at 0.475 MMTC yr^–1. Land use changes and soil/crop management practices with potential for SOC sequestration include conservation tillage methods, judicious use of fertilizers and manures, use of crop residues, diverse crop rotations, and erosion control measures. The potential for SOC sequestration is 0.146 MMTC yr^–1 for adopting conservation tillage, 0.011–0.035 MMTC yr^–1 for crop residue management, 0.026 MMTC yr^–1 for judicious use of mineral fertilizer, 0.016–0.135 MMTC yr^–1 for manure application, and 0.036 MMTC yr^–1 for adopting crop rotations. The overall potential of these practices for SOC sequestration ranges from 0.591 to 1.022 MMTC yr^–1 with an average value of 0.806 MMTC yr^–1. Of the total potential, 59% is due to adoption of erosion control measures, 5.8% to restoration of peat lands, 21% to conversion to conservation tillage and residue management, and 14% to adoption of improved cropping systems. Enhancing SOC sequestration and improving soil quality, through adoption of judicious land use and improved system of soil and crop management, are prudent strategies for sustainable management of soil, water and environment resources.Readers should send their comments on this paper to: bhaskarn ath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Assessing links between crop diversity and food self-sufficiency in three agroecological regions of Nepal

Increasing on-farm crop diversity is one agroecological approach to enhancing food self-sufficiency that helps small-scale farmers keep their food systems stable by reducing risks associated with stressors, such as a pest outbreaks or droughts. But understanding how crop diversity and food self-sufficiency are related is unknown. To explore this complex relation, this study presents household data (n = 1664) from Nepal to test the hypothesis that families with high crop diversity enjoy greater household food self-sufficiency. Data are presented for three districts that are representative of three distinct agroecological regions of the country: (1) Sarlahi, which is affluent, market-oriented, and on the plains; (2) Makwanpur District in the hills, which has well-developed integrated farm production; and (3) the mountainous District of Humla, which has the poorest quality environment and is the most remote. Results show that in the Humla District, families with greater crop diversity were more self-sufficient. In contrast, farmers in Makwanpur, who have already established a high degree of crop diversity based on vegetable production, do not benefit from additional crop diversity in terms of their ability to provide for themselves. Finally, data from Sarlahi show that families’ food self-sufficiency benefits from crop diversification. We conclude that boosting crop diversity is a viable strategy for maintaining stability in food systems, but this varies depending on the accessibility of a farm and, in particular, access to markets.     

红壤稻田系统有机物循环再利用潜力及增产作用

10年田间试验结果表明：红墩妥田系统有机养分循环再利用潜力大，水稻收获，年均从稻田系统中输出NPK的总量最大可达到224.7,53.0和271.4kg/hm^2，有机物循环再利用，年均可归N，P，K量最大分别为115.1,35.8和231.5kg/hm^2，占系统输总量的51.2%,67.5%g和85.3%，保持稻田系统内有机物循环再利用可提高系统生产力，在不施化肥的情况下，增产3056kg/hm^2，增施N肥，增产2753kg/hm^2，增施N，P肥，增产1543kg/hm^2；NPK配合，增产984kg/hm^2；有机物循环再利用还可增强稻田系统的稳产性能，降低稻谷产量的年际变异系数；有机物循环再利用对水稻的增产有着明显的残效叠加作用，在施用N，P，K化肥基础上圾机物养分循环再利用水稻增产率在试验期间的前5年为7．2％，后5年平均为9．4％。     

Construction of Circular Economy Industrial System

It is difficult to realize the transformation from traditional economy industrial system to circular economy industrial system. Regarding primary raw materials as the indicators, the industrial system has been specified according to the divergence among the indicators and the circular utilization modes. In comparison with the association among industrial systems, the relationship among industrial sub-systems is named as industrial cross-linking in this paper. The industrial system which could completely utiLize and recycle the indicators shouM be increased and strengthened, and the circular economy industrial system with complete industrial association and industrial cross-linking should also be constructed. Taking the development of circular agricultural system basing on the traditional agricultural system as an example, the traditional agricultural products are regarded as the indicators which have been divided into foodstuff and crop straws which are used to produce food and articles for use, Like fertilizer, energy and papers etc. The way to construct the circular agricultural industrial system is to increase the industrial systems that could utilize the products generated from crop straws, feces and other castoffs and transform the wastewater and other trucks into environmental friendly products. It has also been pointed out that the construction of circular economy industrial system is conducive to the foundation of circular industrial economics and the establishment of the construction layout of circular economy and the application schemes. Suggestions to the theoretical and practical work of the next step have also been brought forward in this paper.