Utility maximization and catasphore aversion: A simulation test

Economists have proved that the exclusion of the effects of irreversibility from a decision-making framework is a specification error which leads to sub-optimal solutions. Consequently, in any cost-benefit framework, the effects of an irreversibility are included in the form of an option value. Unfortunately, in the real world, there exist certain potential irreversibilities that jeopardize the very existence of the decision-making entity, were they to occur. We demonstrate that if the effects of such irreversibilities are modeled in terms of a finite option value (in cost-benefit analysis) then the optimal solutions derived therefrom may be unable to avert a potential catastrophe. In theory, an infinite option value should lead to catastrophe-averting decisions in such situations. However, in practice, such mathematical formulations tend to be intractable. In many situations, irreversible catastrophes proceed from a positive reinforcement of fluctuations in system behavior, primarily due to sympathetic responses in sub-systems. Engineers have designed relatively low-cost methods to dampen similar oscillations in physical systems. We demonstrate how such engineering type analysis can be used successfully to identify catastrophe-averting policies for a model ecosystem that faces irreversible famine that must be avoided as a precondition for survival.     

A note concerning time parameterization of Markovian models of ecosystem flow analysis

A continuous Markovian model of resource flow in a steady state ecosystem model is developed. This model calculates the mean and variance of the frequency of intercompartmental cyclings and duration of compartmental residence times. This model is compared with an analogous discrete Markovian flow model to demonstrate the sensitivity of discrete and continuous ecosystem flow analyses. Appropriate time parameterization of of discrete Markovian flow models is then discussed with special reference to Shannon's theorem of dynamic system sampling.     

Planning for ex situ conservation in the face of uncertainty

Ex situ conservation strategies for threatened species often require long‐term commitment and financial investment to achieve management objectives. We present a framework that considers the decision to adopt ex situ management for a target species as the end point of several linked decisions. We used a decision tree to intuitively represent the logical sequence of decision making. The first decision is to identify the specific management actions most likely to achieve the fundamental objectives of the recovery plan, with or without the use of ex‐situ populations. Once this decision has been made, one decides whether to establish an ex situ population, accounting for the probability of success in the initial phase of the recovery plan, for example, the probability of successful breeding in captivity. Approaching these decisions in the reverse order (attempting to establish an ex situ population before its purpose is clearly defined) can lead to a poor allocation of resources, because it may restrict the range of available decisions in the second stage. We applied our decision framework to the recovery program for the threatened spotted tree frog (Litoria spenceri) of southeastern Australia. Across a range of possible management actions, only those including ex situ management were expected to provide >50% probability of the species’ persistence, but these actions cost more than use of in situ alternatives only. The expected benefits of ex situ actions were predicted to be offset by additional uncertainty and stochasticity associated with establishing and maintaining ex situ populations. Naïvely implementing ex situ conservation strategies can lead to inefficient management. Our framework may help managers explicitly evaluate objectives, management options, and the probability of success prior to establishing a captive colony of any given species.     

用马尔柯夫模型预测马尾松低效林改造恢复过程

运用马尔柯夫模型对四川盆地马尾松低效林改造恢复过程中林分各层次盖度、多样性指数和灌木层物种组成的变化趋势进行了预测．结果表明：马尔柯夫模型可适用于退化森林生态系统人工恢复重建过程的研究；四川盆地马尾松低效林可以自然恢复，但采用封育补植措施则能加快恢复进程．对马尔柯夫模型及预测结果进行了讨论．     

Beyond Biogeography: a Framework for Involving the Public in Planning of U.S. Marine Protected Areas

Abstract:  Planning of marine protected areas (MPAs) is highlighted in the conservation literature but is not explored in much detail. Many researchers acknowledge the importance of involving the public in MPA planning, but there is limited guidance on how to do this in an effective manner. I present a framework for involving the public in planning of U.S. MPAs. Derived from empirically and theoretically based research on public participation in U.S. natural resource management, this framework is composed of factors that influence the success of participatory processes: active participant involvement, complete information exchange, fair decision making, efficient administration, and positive participant interactions. Processes incorporating these factors will produce decisions that are more likely to be supported by stakeholders, meet management objectives, and fulfill conservation goals. This framework contributes to the MPA social science literature and responds to calls in the conservation literature to increase the use of social science research to inform conservation decision making.     

Assessing Conservation Management's Evidence Base: a Survey of Management-Plan Compilers in the United Kingdom and Australia

Abstract:  Conservation management is becoming increasingly resource intensive as threats to biodiversity grow through habitat destruction, habitat disturbance, and overexploitation. To achieve successful conservation and sustainable use of natural resources, we need to scientifically evaluate the effectiveness of conservation interventions and provide an efficient framework through which scientific evidence can be used to support decision making in policy and practice. We conducted the first formal assessment of the extent to which scientific evidence is used in conservation management through a questionnaire survey and follow-up interviews of compilers of protected-area management plans from major conservation organizations within the United Kingdom and Australia. Our survey results show that scientific information is not being used systematically to support decision making largely because it is not easily accessible to decision makers. This, in combination with limited monitoring and evaluation of effectiveness of management interventions, results in the majority of decisions being based on experience rather than on evidence. To address this problem we propose using an evidence-based framework adapted from that used in the health services and explain how we are currently putting an equivalent framework into practice by establishing review and dissemination units to serve the conservation sector.     

Forest loss,monetary compensation,and delayed re-planting: The effects of unpredictable land tenure in China

Over the past 65 years, forest tenure in China has oscillated unpredictably between private and village property regimes. This policy-induced uncertainty has distorted the harvesting decisions of individuals granted rights to grow trees and has lowered the value of China׳s forest output. We provide an analytical framework for assessing these effects quantitatively. Understanding the consequences of this policy-induced uncertainty is particularly important since China is currently engaged in an ambitious plan to increase its domestic supply of timber. To conduct this analysis, we extend the literature on forestry economics when there is a risk of loss due to forest fire or pests. We (1) take account of the possibility that replanting can only resume after an interval of uncertain length (with immediate replanting as a special Case); (2) investigate the effects of compensation for such losses based only on the net value of the stand of trees at the time of the loss; and (3) compare it to compensation that would leave the wealth and rotation decisions of the farmer unaffected by the presence of uncertainty.     

Incorporating Uncertainty of Management Costs in Sensitivity Analyses of Matrix Population Models

The importance of accounting for economic costs when making environmental‐management decisions subject to resource constraints has been increasingly recognized in recent years. In contrast, uncertainty associated with such costs has often been ignored. We developed a method, on the basis of economic theory, that accounts for the uncertainty in population‐management decisions. We considered the case where, rather than taking fixed values, model parameters are random variables that represent the situation when parameters are not precisely known. Hence, the outcome is not precisely known either. Instead of maximizing the expected outcome, we maximized the probability of obtaining an outcome above a threshold of acceptability. We derived explicit analytical expressions for the optimal allocation and its associated probability, as a function of the threshold of acceptability, where the model parameters were distributed according to normal and uniform distributions. To illustrate our approach we revisited a previous study that incorporated cost‐efficiency analyses in management decisions that were based on perturbation analyses of matrix population models. Incorporating derivations from this study into our framework, we extended the model to address potential uncertainties. We then applied these results to 2 case studies: management of a Koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) population and conservation of an olive ridley sea turtle (Lepidochelys olivacea) population. For low aspirations, that is, when the threshold of acceptability is relatively low, the optimal strategy was obtained by diversifying the allocation of funds. Conversely, for high aspirations, the budget was directed toward management actions with the highest potential effect on the population. The exact optimal allocation was sensitive to the choice of uncertainty model. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for uncertainty when making decisions and suggest that more effort should be placed on understanding the distributional characteristics of such uncertainty. Our approach provides a tool to improve decision making.     

Invasion versus Isolation: Trade-Offs in Managing Native Salmonids with Barriers to Upstream Movement

Abstract: Conservation biologists often face the trade‐off that increasing connectivity in fragmented landscapes to reduce extinction risk of native species can foster invasion by non‐native species that enter via the corridors created, which can then increase extinction risk. This dilemma is acute for stream fishes, especially native salmonids, because their populations are frequently relegated to fragments of headwater habitat threatened by invasion from downstream by 3 cosmopolitan non‐native salmonids. Managers often block these upstream invasions with movement barriers, but isolation of native salmonids in small headwater streams can increase the threat of local extinction. We propose a conceptual framework to address this worldwide problem that focuses on 4 main questions. First, are populations of conservation value present (considering evolutionary legacies, ecological functions, and socioeconomic benefits as distinct values)? Second, are populations vulnerable to invasion and displacement by non‐native salmonids? Third, would these populations be threatened with local extinction if isolated with barriers? And, fourth, how should management be prioritized among multiple populations? We also developed a conceptual model of the joint trade‐off of invasion and isolation threats that considers the opportunities for managers to make strategic decisions. We illustrated use of this framework in an analysis of the invasion‐isolation trade‐off for native cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii) in 2 contrasting basins in western North America where invasion and isolation are either present and strong or farther away and apparently weak. These cases demonstrate that decisions to install or remove barriers to conserve native salmonids are often complex and depend on conservation values, environmental context (which influences the threat of invasion and isolation), and additional socioeconomic factors. Explicit analysis with tools such as those we propose can help managers make sound decisions in such complex circumstances.     

Minimise long-term loss or maximise short-term gain?: Optimal translocation strategies for threatened species

Translocation is a useful management option for conservation of threatened animal species. It can be used to increase the range of a species, augment the numbers in a critical population, or establish new populations and hence spread the risk of extinction through local catastrophes. As it is an important and expensive conservation tool, translocation management decisions must be carefully considered, with the objective of the translocation project in mind. By analysing the translocation problem within a decision-theory framework, we find optimal management decisions that are rational and transparent. We illustrate our approach using a case study of the bridled nailtail wallaby (Onychogalea fraenata). Our particular translocation question is: if we have a set number of wallabies to translocate in each time period and two translocation sites, how many wallabies should we put at each site given the state of each population to maximise the benefit to the species? We model the translocated populations with first-order Markov chain stochastic population models, and use stochastic dynamic programming to determine the optimal management decisions. We look at two sites with different growth rates – one increasing and one decreasing – and compare the optimal strategies for two different objective functions. The first is a long-term persistence objective function, which maximises the persistence of translocated populations a large number of time steps after the end of the translocation program. The second maximises total population size at the end of the translocation program. Although these objective functions are similar, they generate surprisingly different optimal translocation strategies. When maximising the long-term persistence of the translocated populations, translocation decisions are not important as long as an increasing population is established. This indicates that site quality – rather than the number and timing of translocations – primarily determines the long-term persistence of populations. When maximising total population size, the optimal strategy is to add to the increasing population unless it is above a size where it is likely to reach its carrying capacity over the planning timeframe. As translocation decisions are important in fulfilling the objective, this objective function is more useful in creating practical advice for translocation managers. The discrepancy between the optimal strategies given by the two objectives demonstrates the importance of careful consideration when specifying the goals of a project. This observation applies not only to translocation programs, but any project where clear decision-making is needed.     

The Tyndall coastal simulator

The threat of sea-level rise and climate change means that coastal managers are being increasingly asked to make long-term assessments of potential coastal impacts and responses. In the UK, shoreline management planning (for flood and erosion hazards) and spatial planning now takes a 100 year perspective. An integrated framework across a wide range of physical and social issues is required for the assessment of coastal impacts and consequently for making sound management decisions. This paper provides an overview of the development of the ‘Tyndall Coastal Simulator’ including the underlying philosophy that is being followed. The Simulator is based on a series of linked climate models (CM) within a nested framework which recognises three spatial scales: (i) the global (GCM) scale; (ii) the regional scale and (iii) the Simulator Domain (a physiographic unit, such as a coastal sub-cell). Within the nesting, the larger scale provides the boundary conditions for the smaller scale. The models feed into each other and describe a range of relevant processes: sea level, tides, surges, waves, sediment transport and coastal morphology. Different climate scenarios, as well as the range of uncertainty, are being explored. Communication of results is a major issue and the Simulator includes a dedicated GIS-based user interface that allows a wide range of queries of model outputs. The paper demonstrates the possibility of developing an integrated framework that is multi-scale and capable of linking various models in order to simulate complex coastal processes and consequently allowing long-term assessments that are useful for setting future management plans.     

Structuring Decisions for Managing Threatened and Endangered Species in a Changing Climate

The management of endangered species under climate change is a challenging and often controversial task that incorporates input from a variety of different environmental, economic, social, and political interests. Yet many listing and recovery decisions for endangered species unfold on an ad hoc basis without reference to decision‐aiding approaches that can improve the quality of management choices. Unlike many treatments of this issue, which consider endangered species management a science‐based problem, we suggest that a clear decision‐making process is equally necessary. In the face of new threats due to climate change, managers’ choices about endangered species require closely linked analyses and deliberations that identify key objectives and develop measurable attributes, generate and compare management alternatives, estimate expected consequences and key sources of uncertainty, and clarify trade‐offs across different dimensions of value. Several recent cases of endangered species conservation decisions illustrate our proposed decision‐focused approach, including Gulf of Maine Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) recovery framework development, Cultus Lake sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) management, and Upper Columbia River white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) recovery planning. Estructuración de Decisiones para Manejar Especies Amenazadas y en Peligro en un Clima Cambiante     

Integrated ecological assessment as the basis for management of a coastal urban protected area: A case study of Xiamen,China

In the process of rapid urbanisation in China, environmental problems have increased, from sewage discharge to climate change. Marine protected areas (MPAs) are widely advocated as a means to comprehensively manage human activities and resources in ocean and coastal areas. However, MPAs only safeguard populations or assemblages within their boundaries and fail to offer any protection from many major threats to marine environments. An increase in environmental threats implies an increase in environmental management and assessment. We propose a methodological framework for integrated ecological assessment using the Xiamen marine protected area as a case study. The integrated ecological assessment framework can be generalised from the dimensions of environment, economy, society and institution. Surveys were undertaken to assess the state of the Xiamen coastal environment, the resources of the reserve, and issues associated with human activities. Stakeholders were interviewed about their attitudes towards issues regarding the management of the reserve. The constraints of the reserve management were identified. The methodological framework is presented as a tool to help identify relative ecological security in order to prioritise actions and assess the ecological implications of management and policy decisions.     

Adapting participatory processes to fine-tune conservation approaches in multiactor decision settings

Conservation decisions are typically made in complex, dynamic, and uncertain settings, where multiple actors raise diverse and potentially conflicting claims, champion different and sometimes contradictory values, and enjoy varying degrees of freedom and power to act and influence collective decisions. Therefore, effective conservation actions require conservation scientists and practitioners to take into account the complexity of multiactor settings. We devised a framework to help conservation biologists and practitioners in this task. Institutional economic theories, which are insufficiently cited in the conservation literature, contain useful insights for conservation. Among these theories, the economies of worth can significantly contribute to conservation because it can be used to classify the types of values peoples or groups refer to when they interact during the elaboration and implementation of conservation projects. Refining this approach, we designed a framework to help conservation professionals grasp the relevant differences among settings in which decisions related to conservation actions are to be made, so that they can adapt their approaches to the features of the settings they encounter. This framework distinguishes 6 types of agreements and disagreements that can occur between actors involved in a conservation project (harmony, stricto sensu arrangement, deliberated arrangement, unilateral and reciprocal compromise, and locked-in), depending on whether they disagree on values or on their applications and on whether they can converge toward common values by working together. We identified key questions that conservationists should answer to adapt their strategy to the disagreements they encounter and identified relevant participatory processes to complete the adaptation.     

A dynamic host selection model for mountain pine beetle,Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins

The link between individual habitat selection decisions (i.e., mechanism) and the resulting population distributions of dispersing organisms (i.e., outcome) has been little-studied in behavioural ecology. Here we consider density-dependent habitat (i.e., host) selection for an energy- and time-limited forager: the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins). We present a dynamic state variable model of individual beetle host selection behaviour, based on an individual’s energy state. Field data are incorporated into model parameterization which allows us to determine the effects of host availability (with respect to host size, quality, and vigour) on individuals’ decisions. Beetles choose larger trees with thicker phloem across a larger proportion of the state-space than smaller trees with thinner phloem, but accept lower quality trees more readily at low energy- and time-states. In addition, beetles make habitat selection decisions based on host availability, conspecific attack densities, and beetle distributions within a forest stand. This model provides a framework for the development of a spatial game model to examine the implications of these results for attack dynamics of beetle populations.     

Past experiences and future expectations generate context-dependent costs of foraging

Because environments can vary over space and time in non-predictable ways, foragers must rely on estimates of resource availability and distribution to make decisions. Optimal foraging theory assumes that foraging behavior has evolved to maximize fitness and provides a conceptual framework in which environmental quality is often assumed to be fixed. Another more mechanistic conceptual framework comes from the successive contrast effects (SCE) approach in which the conditions that an individual has experienced in the recent past alter its response to current conditions. By regarding foragers’ estimation of resource patches as subjective future value assessments, SCE may be integrated into an optimal foraging framework to generate novel predictions. We released Allenby’s gerbils (Gerbillus andersoni allenbyi) into an enclosure containing rich patches with equal amounts of food and manipulated the quality of the environment over time by reducing the amount of food in most (but not all) food patches and then increasing it again. We found that, as predicted by optimal foraging models, gerbils increased their foraging activity in the rich patch when the environment became poor. However, when the environment became rich again, the gerbils significantly altered their behavior compared to the first identical rich period. Specifically, in the second rich period, the gerbils spent more time foraging and harvested more food from the patches. Thus, seemingly identical environments can be treated as strikingly different by foragers as a function of their past experiences and future expectations.     

How to Build an Efficient Conservation Fence

Abstract:  Barriers are used to achieve diverse objectives in conservation and biosecurity. In conservation management, fences are often erected to exclude introduced predators and to contain diseased animals or invasive species. Planning an efficient conservation fence involves a number of decisions, including the size and design of the enclosure. We formulated the first general framework for building a fence that minimizes long-term management costs by balancing the expense of constructing a more secure barrier against the costs of coping with more frequent failures. The approach systematically considers the range of potential solutions to a well-defined fencing problem and results in a solution that maximizes conservation return on investment. We illustrated this method by designing efficient fences to address two different conservation goals: exclusion of invasive predators from populations of threatened eastern barred bandicoots ( Perameles gunnii ) and maintenance of isolated populations of healthy Tasmanian devils ( Sarcophilus harrisii ). A systematic approach to conservation fencing allows the best fence design to be chosen quantitatively and defensibly. It also facilitates conservation decisions at a strategic level by allowing fencing to be compared transparently with alternative conservation management actions.     

Mapping social–ecological vulnerability to inform local decision making

An overarching challenge of natural resource management and biodiversity conservation is that relationships between people and nature are difficult to integrate into tools that can effectively guide decision making. Social–ecological vulnerability offers a valuable framework for identifying and understanding important social–ecological linkages, and the implications of dependencies and other feedback loops in the system. Unfortunately, its implementation at local scales has hitherto been limited due at least in part to the lack of operational tools for spatial representation of social–ecological vulnerability. We developed a method to map social–ecological vulnerability based on information on human–nature dependencies and ecosystem services at local scales. We applied our method to the small‐scale fishery of Moorea, French Polynesia, by combining spatially explicit indicators of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of both the resource (i.e., vulnerability of reef fish assemblages to fishing) and resource users (i.e., vulnerability of fishing households to the loss of fishing opportunity). Our results revealed that both social and ecological vulnerabilities varied considerably through space and highlighted areas where sources of vulnerability were high for both social and ecological subsystems (i.e., social–ecological vulnerability hotspots) and thus of high priority for management intervention. Our approach can be used to inform decisions about where biodiversity conservation strategies are likely to be more effective and how social impacts from policy decisions can be minimized. It provides a new perspective on human–nature linkages that can help guide sustainability management at local scales; delivers insights distinct from those provided by emphasis on a single vulnerability component (e.g., exposure); and demonstrates the feasibility and value of operationalizing the social–ecological vulnerability framework for policy, planning, and participatory management decisions.     

A retrospective Markovian model for ecosystem resource flow

Historic ecosystem resource flow is modeled as a retrospective discrete Markov chain to obtain the expected values and variances of compartmental residence times and numbers of intercompartmental transfers that compartmental standing crops have experienced since their latest entry into the ecosystem. The transition probabilities of the proposed retrospective Markovian model are either stationary or time inhomogeneous according to whether a steady state or non-steady state ecosystem, respectively, is analyzed.     

Toward accurate and precise estimates of lion density

Reliable estimates of animal density are fundamental to understanding ecological processes and population dynamics. Furthermore, their accuracy is vital to conservation because wildlife authorities rely on estimates to make decisions. However, it is notoriously difficult to accurately estimate density for wide‐ranging carnivores that occur at low densities. In recent years, significant progress has been made in density estimation of Asian carnivores, but the methods have not been widely adapted to African carnivores, such as lions (Panthera leo). Although abundance indices for lions may produce poor inferences, they continue to be used to estimate density and inform management and policy. We used sighting data from a 3‐month survey and adapted a Bayesian spatially explicit capture‐recapture (SECR) model to estimate spatial lion density in the Maasai Mara National Reserve and surrounding conservancies in Kenya. Our unstructured spatial capture‐recapture sampling design incorporated search effort to explicitly estimate detection probability and density on a fine spatial scale, making our approach robust in the context of varying detection probabilities. Overall posterior mean lion density was estimated to be 17.08 (posterior SD 1.310) lions >1 year old/100 km², and the sex ratio was estimated at 2.2 females to 1 male. Our modeling framework and narrow posterior SD demonstrate that SECR methods can produce statistically rigorous and precise estimates of population parameters, and we argue that they should be favored over less reliable abundance indices. Furthermore, our approach is flexible enough to incorporate different data types, which enables robust population estimates over relatively short survey periods in a variety of systems. Trend analyses are essential to guide conservation decisions but are frequently based on surveys of differing reliability. We therefore call for a unified framework to assess lion numbers in key populations to improve management and policy decisions.