Complex and nonlinear climate-driven changes in freshwater insect communities over 42 years

The ongoing biodiversity crisis becomes evident in the widely observed decline in abundance and diversity of species, profound changes in community structure, and shifts in species’ phenology. Insects are among the most affected groups, with documented decreases in abundance up to 76% in the last 25–30 years in some terrestrial ecosystems. Identifying the underlying drivers is a major obstacle as most ecosystems are affected by multiple stressors simultaneously and in situ measurements of environmental variables are often missing. In our study, we investigated a headwater stream belonging to the most common stream type in Germany located in a nature reserve with no major anthropogenic impacts except climate change. We used the most comprehensive quantitative long-term data set on aquatic insects available, which includes weekly measurements of species-level insect abundance, daily water temperature and stream discharge as well as measurements of additional physicochemical variables for a 42-year period (1969–2010). Overall, water temperature increased by 1.88 °C and discharge patterns changed significantly. These changes were accompanied by an 81.6% decline in insect abundance, but an increase in richness (+8.5%), Shannon diversity (+22.7%), evenness (+22.4%), and interannual turnover (+34%). Moreover, the community's trophic structure and phenology changed: the duration of emergence increased by 15.2 days, whereas the peak of emergence moved 13.4 days earlier. Additionally, we observed short-term fluctuations (<5 years) in almost all metrics as well as complex and nonlinear responses of the community toward climate change that would have been missed by simply using snapshot data or shorter time series. Our results indicate that climate change has already altered biotic communities severely even in protected areas, where no other interacting stressors (pollution, habitat fragmentation, etc.) are present. This is a striking example of the scientific value of comprehensive long-term data in capturing the complex responses of communities toward climate change.     

The effects of forest harvest intensity in combination with wind disturbance on carbon dynamics in Lake States Mesic Forests

Total forest carbon (C) storage is determined by succession, disturbances, climate, and the edaphic properties of a site or region. Forest harvesting substantially affects C dynamics; these effects may be amplified if forest harvesting is intensified to provide biofuel feedstock. We tested the effects of harvest intensity on landscape C using a simulation modeling approach that included C dynamics, multiple disturbances, and successional changes in composition. We developed a new extension for the LANDIS-II forest landscape disturbance and succession model that incorporates belowground soil C dynamics derived from the CENTURY soil model. The extension was parameterized and calibrated using data from an experimental forest in northeastern Wisconsin, USA. We simulated a 9800 ha forested landscape over 400 years with wind disturbance combined with no harvesting, harvesting with residual slash left on site (‘standard harvest’), and whole-tree harvesting. We also simulated landscapes without wind disturbance and without eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) to examine the effects of detrital quantity and quality on C dynamics. We estimated changes in live C, detrital C, soil organic C, total C, and forest composition. Overall, the simulations without harvesting had substantially greater total C and continued to sequester C. Standard harvest simulations had more C than the whole tree harvest simulations. Under both harvest regimes, C accrual was not evident after 150 years. Without hemlock, SOC was reduced due to a decline in detritus and a shift in detrital chemistry. In conclusion, if the intensity of harvesting increases we can expect a corresponding reduction in potential C storage. Compositional changes due to historic circumstances (loss of hemlock) may also affect forest C although to a lesser degree than harvesting. The modeling approach presented enabled us to consider multiple, interacting drivers of landscape change and the subsequent changes in forest C.     

The ecology of energy and nutrient fluxes in hemlock forests invaded by hemlock woolly adelgid

The hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA, Adelges tsugae Annand) is currently causing a severe decline in vitality and survival of eastern hemlock in North American forests. We analyzed the effects of light HWA infestation on vertical energy and nutrient fluxes from the canopy to the forest floor. Canopy throughfall, litter lysimeters, and laboratory litter microcosms were used to examine the effects of HWA-affected and unaffected throughfall on litter type, leachate, and litter chemistry. Early in the season adelgid infestation caused higher dissolved organic carbon (DOC; +24.6%), dissolved organic nitrogen (DON; +28.5%), and K (+39.3%) fluxes and lower inorganic nitrogen fluxes (-39.8%) in throughfall and in adjacent litter solutions collected beneath infested compared to uninfested trees. Needle litter collected beneath uninfested hemlock had significantly lower N concentrations compared to needles collected beneath infested trees, while no difference in N concentrations was found in birch litter. Bacteria were significantly more abundant on hemlock and birch litter beneath infested trees, while yeasts and filamentous fungi showed no consistent response to HWA throughfall. Litter microcosms showed that less DOC was leaching from birch than from hemlock needles when exposed to HWA throughfall. Overall, NH4-N and DON leachate concentrations were higher from birch than from hemlock litter. Thus, HWA-affected throughfall leads to qualitative and quantitative differences in nitrogen export from the litter layer. The N concentration of hemlock litter did not change with time, but the N concentration in birch litter increased significantly during the course of the experiment, especially when HWA-affected throughfall was applied. We suggest a nonlinear conceptual model for the temporal and vertical transition of energy and nutrient fluxes relative to progressing HWA infestation from a pure hemlock to a birch/maple-dominated forest. Progressive needle loss and changes in needle chemistry are likely to produce a humped-shaped DOC curve, while N fluxes initially decrease as infestation continues but rise eventually with hemlock decline and immigration of hardwood species. These findings suggest that it is necessary to understand the biology and specific physiological/trophic effects of exotic pests on their hosts and associated ecosystem processes in order to decipher the temporal dynamics, direction of change, and functional consequences.     

Integrated model projections of climate change impacts on a North American lake

Climate change is likely to impact terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems via numerous physical and biological mechanisms. This study outlines a framework for projecting potential impacts of climate change on lakes using linked environmental models. Impacts of climate drivers on catchment hydrology and thermal balance in Onondaga Lake (New York State) are simulated using mechanistic models HSPF and UFILS4. Outputs from these models are fed into a lake ecosystem model, developed in AQUATOX. Watershed simulations project increases in the magnitude of peak flows and consequent increases in catchment nutrient export as the magnitude of extreme precipitation events increases. This occurs concurrently with a decrease in annual stream discharge as a result of increased evapotranspiration. Simulated lake water temperatures increase by as much as 5 °C during the 2040-2069 time period, accompanied by a prolonging of the duration of summer stratification. Projected changes include shifts in the timing of nutrient cycling between lake sediments and water column. Plankton taxa projected to thrive under climate change include green algae and Bosmina longirostris. Responses for species at higher trophic levels are mixed. Benthic macroinvertebrates may either prosper (zebra mussels) or decline (chironomids), while fish (e.g., gizzard shad) exhibit high seasonal variability without any clear trend.     

Integrated Monitoring and Information Systems for Managing Aquatic Invasive Species in a Changing Climate

Abstract:  Changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climatic drivers and sea-level rise will affect populations of existing native and non-native aquatic species and the vulnerability of aquatic environments to new invasions. Monitoring surveys provide the foundation for assessing the combined effects of climate change and invasions by providing baseline biotic and environmental conditions, although the utility of a survey depends on whether the results are quantitative or qualitative, and other design considerations. The results from a variety of monitoring programs in the United States are available in integrated biological information systems, although many include only non-native species, not native species. Besides including natives, we suggest these systems could be improved through the development of standardized methods that capture habitat and physiological requirements and link regional and national biological databases into distributed Web portals that allow drawing information from multiple sources. Combining the outputs from these biological information systems with environmental data would allow the development of ecological-niche models that predict the potential distribution or abundance of native and non-native species on the basis of current environmental conditions. Environmental projections from climate models can be used in these niche models to project changes in species distributions or abundances under altered climatic conditions and to identify potential high-risk invaders. There are, however, a number of challenges, such as uncertainties associated with projections from climate and niche models and difficulty in integrating data with different temporal and spatial granularity. Even with these uncertainties, integration of biological and environmental information systems, niche models, and climate projections would improve management of aquatic ecosystems under the dual threats of biotic invasions and climate change.     

Phenology of mixed woody-herbaceous ecosystems following extreme events: net and differential responses

Ecosystem responses to key climate drivers are reflected in phenological dynamics such as the timing and degree of "green-up" that integrate responses over spatial scales from individual plants to ecosystems. This integration is clearest in ecosystems dominated by a single species or life form, such as seasonally dynamic grasslands or more temporally constant evergreen forests. Yet many ecosystems have substantial contribution of cover from both herbaceous and woody evergreen plants. Responses of mixed woody-herbaceous ecosystems to climate are of increasing concern due to their extensive nature, the potential for such systems to yield more complex responses than those dominated by a single life form, and projections that extreme climate and weather events will increase in frequency and intensity with global warming. We present responses of a mixed woody-herbaceous ecosystem type to an extreme event: regional-scale pi?on pine mortality following an extended drought and the subsequent herbaceous green-up following the first wet period after the drought. This example highlights how reductions in greenness of the slower, more stable evergreen woody component can rapidly be offset by increases associated with resources made available to the relatively more responsive herbaceous component. We hypothesize that such two-phase phenological responses to extreme events are characteristic of many mixed woody-herbaceous ecosystems.     

Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Aquatic Invasive Species

Abstract:  Different components of global environmental change are typically studied and managed independently, although there is a growing recognition that multiple drivers often interact in complex and nonadditive ways. We present a conceptual framework and empirical review of the interactive effects of climate change and invasive species in freshwater ecosystems. Climate change is expected to result in warmer water temperatures, shorter duration of ice cover, altered streamflow patterns, increased salinization, and increased demand for water storage and conveyance structures. These changes will alter the pathways by which non-native species enter aquatic systems by expanding fish-culture facilities and water gardens to new areas and by facilitating the spread of species during floods. Climate change will influence the likelihood of new species becoming established by eliminating cold temperatures or winter hypoxia that currently prevent survival and by increasing the construction of reservoirs that serve as hotspots for invasive species. Climate change will modify the ecological impacts of invasive species by enhancing their competitive and predatory effects on native species and by increasing the virulence of some diseases. As a result of climate change, new prevention and control strategies such as barrier construction or removal efforts may be needed to control invasive species that currently have only moderate effects or that are limited by seasonally unfavorable conditions. Although most researchers focus on how climate change will increase the number and severity of invasions, some invasive coldwater species may be unable to persist under the new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the complex interactions between climate change and invasive species that will influence how aquatic ecosystems and their biota will respond to novel environmental conditions.     

Windows of change: temporal scale of analysis is decisive to detect ecosystem responses to climate change

Long-term ecological research has become a cornerstone of the scientific endeavour to better understand ecosystem responses to environmental change. This paper provides a perspective on how such research could be advanced. It emphasizes that a profound understanding of the mechanisms underlying these responses requires that records of ecologic processes be not only sufficiently long, but also collected at an appropriate temporal resolution. We base our argument on an overview of studies of climate impacts in limnic and marine ecosystems, suggesting that lakes and oceans respond to (short-term) weather conditions during critical time windows in the year. The observed response patterns are often time-lagged or driven by the crossing of thresholds in weather-related variables (such as water temperature and thermal stratification intensity). It becomes clear from the previous studies that average annual, seasonal or monthly climate data often fall short of characterizing the thermal dynamics that most organisms respond to. To illustrate such literature-based evidence using a concrete example, we compare 2?years of water temperature data from Müggelsee (Berlin, Germany) at multiple temporal scales (from hours to years). This comparison underlines the pitfalls of analysing data at resolutions not high enough to detect critical differences in environmental forcing. Current science initiatives that aim at improving the temporal resolution of long-term observatory data in aquatic systems will help to identify adequate timescales of analysis necessary for the understanding of ecosystem responses to climate change.     

Hydrochemie von Waldquellen des Fichtelgebirges

The hydrochemistry of forest springs was investigated in the Fichtelgebirge, a region in NE Bavaria (F.R.G.) which is strongly affected by forest decline. Data were collected from 165 springs (Tables 1–5). Water chemistry is characterized by high concentrations of nitrate, sulfate and aluminium and is influenced by forest decline, liming and soil type of the catchment. Model calculations show maximal N-outputs of 40 kg nitrate-N/ha^*a indicating N-saturation in some forest ecosystems of the Fichtelgebirge. N-saturated ecosystems without buffercapacity for Nitrogen will release all further N-inputs as NO₃ to the aquatic ecosystem.     

Capacity of Management Plans for Aquatic Invasive Species to Integrate Climate Change

Abstract:  The consequences of climate change will affect aquatic ecosystems, including aquatic invasive species (AIS) that are already affecting these ecosystems. Effects on AIS include range shifts and more frequent overwintering of species. These effects may create new challenges for AIS management. We examined available U.S. state AIS management plans to assess each program's capacity to adapt to climate-change effects. We scored the adaptive capacity of AIS management plans on the basis of whether they addressed potential impacts resulting from climate change; demonstrated a capacity to adapt to changing conditions; provided for monitoring strategies; provided for plan revisions; and described funding for implementation. Most plans did not mention climate change specifically, but some did acknowledge climatic boundaries of species and ecosystem sensitivities to changing conditions. Just under half the plans mentioned changing environmental conditions as a factor, most frequently as part of research activities. Activities associated with monitoring showed the highest capacity to include information on changing conditions, and future revisions to management plans are likely to be the easiest avenue through which to address climate-change effects on AIS management activities. Our results show that programs have the capacity to incorporate information about climate-change effects and that the adaptive-management framework may be an appropriate approach.     

Investigations into a plankton population model: Mortality and its importance in climate change scenarios

The potential for marine plankton ecosystems to influence climate by the production of dimethylsulphide (DMS) has been an important topic of recent research into climate change. Several General Circulation Models, used to predict climate change, have or are being modified to include interactions of ecosystems with climate. Climate change necessitates that parameters within ecosystem models must change during long-term simulations, especially mortality parameters that increase as organisms are pushed toward the boundaries of their thermal tolerance. Changing mortality parameters can have profound influences on ecosystem model dynamics. There is therefore a pressing need to understand the influence of varying mortality parameters on the long-term behaviour of ecosystem models. This work examines the sensitivity of a model of DMS production by marine ecosystems to variations in three linear mortality coefficients. Significant differences in behaviour are observed, and we note the importance of these results in formulating ecosystem models for application in simulations of climate change.     

Modeling range dynamics in heterogeneous landscapes: invasion of the hemlock woolly adelgid in eastern North America

Range expansion by native and exotic species will continue to be a major component of global change. Anticipating the potential effects of changes in species distributions requires models capable of forecasting population spread across realistic, heterogeneous landscapes and subject to spatiotemporal variability in habitat suitability. Several decades of theory and model development, as well as increased computing power and availability of fine-resolution GIS data, now make such models possible. Still unanswered, however, is the question of how well this new generation of dynamic models will anticipate range expansion. Here we develop a spatially explicit stochastic model that combines dynamic dispersal and population processes with fine-resolution maps characterizing spatiotemporal heterogeneity in climate and habitat to model range expansion of the hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA; Adelges tsugae). We parameterize this model using multiyear data sets describing population and dispersal dynamics of HWA and apply it to eastern North America over a 57-year period (1951-2008). To evaluate the model, the observed pattern of spread of HWA during this same period was compared to model predictions. Our model predicts considerable heterogeneity in the risk of HWA invasion across space and through time, and it suggests that spatiotemporal variation in winter temperature, rather than hemlock abundance, exerts a primary control on the spread of HWA. Although the simulations generally matched the observed current extent of the invasion of HWA and patterns of anisotropic spread, it did not correctly predict when HWA was observed to arrive in different geographic regions. We attribute differences between the modeled and observed dynamics to an inability to capture the timing and direction of long-distance dispersal events that substantially affected the ensuing pattern of spread.     

Resource users as land-sea links in coastal and marine socioecological systems

Coastal zones, which connect terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, are among the most resource-rich regions globally and home to nearly 40% of the global human population. Because human land-based activities can alter natural processes in ways that affect adjacent aquatic ecosystems, land-sea interactions are increasingly recognized as critical to coastal conservation planning and governance. However, the complex socioeconomic dynamics inherent in coastal and marine socioecological systems (SESs) have received little consideration. Drawing on knowledge generalized from long-term studies in Caribbean Nicaragua, we devised a conceptual framework that clarifies the multiple ways socioeconomically driven behavior can link the land and sea. In addition to other ecosystem effects, the framework illustrates how feedbacks resulting from changes to aquatic resources can influence terrestrial resource management decisions and land uses. We assessed the framework by applying it to empirical studies from a variety of coastal SESs. The results suggest its broad applicability and highlighted the paucity of research that explicitly investigates the effects of human behavior on coastal SES dynamics. We encourage researchers and policy makers to consider direct, indirect, and bidirectional cross-ecosystem links that move beyond traditionally recognized land-to-sea processes.     

Geologic processes influence the effects of mining on aquatic ecosystems

Geologic processes strongly influence water and sediment quality in aquatic ecosystems but rarely are geologic principles incorporated into routine biomonitoring studies. We test if elevated concentrations of metals in water and sediment are restricted to streams downstream of mines or areas that may discharge mine wastes. We surveyed 198 catchments classified as "historically mined" or "unmined," and based on mineral-deposit criteria, to determine whether water and sediment quality were influenced by naturally occurring mineralized rock, by historical mining, or by a combination of both. By accounting for different geologic sources of metals to the environment, we were able to distinguish aquatic ecosystems limited by metals derived from natural processes from those due to mining. Elevated concentrations of metals in water and sediment were not restricted to mined catchments; depauperate aquatic communities were found in unmined catchments. The type and intensity of hydrothermal alteration and the mineral deposit type were important determinants of water and sediment quality as well as the aquatic community in both mined and unmined catchments. This study distinguished the effects of different rock types and geologic sources of metals on ecosystems by incorporating basic geologic processes into reference and baseline site selection, resulting in a refined assessment. Our results indicate that biomonitoring studies should account for natural sources of metals in some geologic environments as contributors to the effect of mines on aquatic ecosystems, recognizing that in mining-impacted drainages there may have been high pre-mining background metal concentrations.     

三氯生在水生生态系统中的污染现状及其生物毒性效应

三氯生(triclosan, TCS)是一种合成型广谱类抗菌剂,广泛应用于人类的生产生活,使用中伴随生活污水进入环境并已广泛分布,其中水生生态系统是TCS的主要污染区域之一。通过汇总分析国内外不同类型水生生态系统中TCS的调查研究结果,发现TCS已经普遍存在于淡水和近海水生生态系统中,生活污染处理厂出水是河流中TCS的主要污染源,区域污染水平与人口密度和工业发展程度密切相关;水体中的浓度受降雨、河口区潮汐作用以及季节影响; TCS对水生生物存在显著毒性效应,其效应浓度因物种而异,与生物的发育阶段也有关系。     

Ontogenetic and sex-specific differences in density-dependent habitat selection of a marine fish population

The spatial dynamics of species are the result of complex interactions between density-independent and density-dependent sources of variability. Disentangling these two sources of variability has challenged ecologists working in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Using a novel spatially explicit statistical model, we tested for the presence of density-independent and density-dependent habitat selection in yellowfin sole (Limanda aspera) in the eastern Bering Sea. We found specificities in the density-dependent processes operating across ontogeny and particularly with gender. Density-dependent habitat expansion occurred primarily in females, and to a lesser degree in males. These patterns were especially evident in adult stages, while juvenile stages of both sexes exhibited a mix of different dynamics. Association of yellowfin sole with substrate type also varied by sex and to a lesser degree with size, with large females distributed over a wider range of substrates than males. Moreover, yellowfin sole expanded northward as cold subsurface waters retracted in summer, suggesting high sensitivity to arctic warming. Our findings illustrate how marginal habitats can play an important role in buffering density-dependent habitat expansion, with direct implications for resource management. Our spatially explicit modeling approach is effective in evaluating density-dependent spatial dynamics, and can easily be used to test similar hypotheses from a variety of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems.     

Characteristics of plankton Hg bioaccumulations based on a global data set and the implications for aquatic systems with aggravating nutrient imbalance

• Hg bioaccumulation by phytoplankton varies among aquatic ecosystems. • Active Hg uptake may exist for the phytoplankton in aquatic ecosystems. • Impacts of nutrient imbalance on food chain Hg transfer should be addressed. The bioaccumulation of mercury (Hg) in aquatic ecosystem poses a potential health risk to human being and aquatic organism. Bioaccumulations by plankton represent a crucial process of Hg transfer from water to aquatic food chain. However, the current understanding of major factors affecting Hg accumulation by plankton is inadequate. In this study, a data set of 89 aquatic ecosystems worldwide, including inland water, nearshore water and open sea, was established. Key factors influencing plankton Hg bioaccumulation (i.e., plankton species, cell sizes and biomasses) were discussed. The results indicated that total Hg (THg) and methylmercury (MeHg) concentrations in plankton in inland waters were significantly higher than those in nearshore waters and open seas. Bioaccumulation factors for the logarithm of THg and MeHg of phytoplankton were 2.4–6.0 and 2.6–6.7 L/kg, respectively, in all aquatic ecosystems. They could be further biomagnified by a factor of 2.1–15.1 and 5.3–28.2 from phytoplankton to zooplankton. Higher MeHg concentrations were observed with the increases of cell size for both phyto- and zooplankton. A contrasting trend was observed between the plankton biomasses and BAF_MeHg, with a positive relationship for zooplankton and a negative relationship for phytoplankton. Plankton physiologic traits impose constraints on the rates of nutrients and contaminants obtaining process from water. Nowadays, many aquatic ecosystems are facing rapid shifts in nutrient compositions. We suggested that these potential influences on the growth and composition of plankton should be incorporated in future aquatic Hg modeling and ecological risk assessments.     

Topology of Extinction and Endangerment of Native Fishes in the Pacific Northwest and California (U.S.A.)

Recent studies have provided a broad data base on extinction and endangerment of species, subspecies, and distinct populations of inland fishes in western North America. Development of a synoptic, regional-scale image of extinction and risk of extinction is complicated by the small size and linear distribution of fluvial aquatic habitats and by interspecific variation in areal extent of populations. I developed a regional map of extinction-risk isopleths based on the number of extinct and persistently declining species in drainage basins of the Pacific Northwest and California. This topological synthesis is useful for delineating and monitoring areas of historic and ongoing loss of aquatic biodiversity, and for relating losses to patterns of land use and habitat modification, climate hydrology, and geomorphology. From an ecological perspective, endangerment of numerous indigenous populations of seven widely distributed species of anadromous salmonids in this region is as important as the more local, diffuse effects of declines in more than 60 endemic, nonanadromous species and subspecies. The simultaneous decline of numerous taxa in basins not afflicted with dams or diversions suggests that cumulative damage to aquatic habitats caused by logging, grazing, urbanization, and other land uses plays a major role in icthyofaunal impoverishment.     

Using a model selection criterion to identify appropriate complexity in aquatic biogeochemical models

Aquatic biogeochemical models are widely used as tools for understanding aquatic ecosystems and predicting their response to various stimuli (e.g., nutrient loading, toxic substances, climate change). Due to the complexity of these systems, such models are often elaborate and include a large number of estimated parameters. However, correspondingly large data sets are rarely available for calibration purposes, leading to models that may be overfit and possess reduced predictive capabilities. We apply, for the first time, information-theoretic model-selection techniques to a set of spatially explicit (1D) algal dynamics models of varying parameter dimension. We demonstrate that increases in complexity tend to produce a better model fit to calibration data, but beyond a certain degree of complexity the benefits of adding parameters are diminished (the risk of overfitting becomes greater). The particular approach taken here is computationally expensive, but several suggestions are made as to how multimodel methods may practically be extended to more sophisticated models.