Linking Russia with the European and global greenhouse gas emissions trading markets: three paths for greening the Russian assigned amount under the Kyoto Protocol

This article examines possibilities for linkage between the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and Russia, with a view to enhancing cooperation on a broader scale than the project-based approaches that have been tested thus far. Three paths for possible EU-Russia linkage are presented by which the Russian Assigned Amount under the Kyoto Protocol can be greened in order to stimulate emissions trading: 1. Joint implementation—reductions earned via individual projects in Russia; 2. Greened allowances or green investment schemes; and 3. Linked cap-and-trade systems, in which a Russian domestic emissions trading system would link with the European Union Emissions Trading System. The authors conclude that the third option, emissions trading through linked domestic emissions trading systems, offers the best opportunities at the lowest transaction costs. The authors discuss useful innovative instruments like call options and slip level arrangements on government-to-government and business-to-business levels.

Fairness aspects of linking the European emissions trading scheme under a long-term stabilization scenario for CO2 concentration

Climate equity is a crucial but difficult element in negotiations on a post-2012 climate regime. With respect to the trading of greenhouse gas emissions the equity aspect is considered in the Kyoto Protocol which demands that emissions trading should be supplemental to domestic abatement efforts. The question arises whether a linking of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) to non-EU emission trading schemes or the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) could have an impact on principles of climate justice and thus potentially affect ongoing negotiations. In this study, we present the results of a three step analysis: In a first step, it estimates mid-term greenhouse gas emission entitlements for Annex B and Non-Annex B countries for the year 2020 which keep within reach a stabilization of the CO₂ concentration at 450 ppmv in the long-term. In the second step, the resulting emission entitlements are used as an input to an economic partial-equilibrium model in order to assess the shift of abatement efforts under different scenarios of linking the EU ETS. In a third step, we analyze the outcome of the economic model with respect to the future trend of European per capita emissions under the current EU ETS relative to different scenarios of linking the EU ETS. The model results indicate that European per capita emissions have to be reduced to a considerably smaller extent if a linking of the EU ETS is accompanied by an optimal design of the National Allocation Plans and if low-cost CO₂ permits became available via the CDM to a large extent.

Greenhouse gas mitigation in developing countries through technology transfer?: a survey of empirical evidence

While greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are projected to rise primarily in the developing countries, the potential for developing new GHG mitigation technologies exists primarily in the industrialized countries. It is thus important, not only for predictions about future emission paths but also for climate change mitigation policies, to understand how the international diffusion of such technologies takes place and how it affects the energy infrastructure and GHG emissions in developing countries. This paper provides an overview of the channels through which these technologies diffuse and focuses on the empirical evidence pertaining to the effects these technologies have on GHG emissions in developing countries.

Linking the EU emissions trading scheme: economic implications of allowance allocation and global carbon constraints

We investigate the role of domestic allowance allocation and global emissions constraints for the carbon-market impacts of linking the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) internationally. Employing a quantitative simulation model of the global carbon market, we find that the economic benefits from connecting the European ETS to emerging non-EU schemes strongly depend on the regional allowance allocation of the linking participants: In a world of moderate carbon constraints, an economically efficient regional allowance allocation induces a much stronger fall in total compliance costs than a sub-optimal (i.e. too high) domestic allocation of emissions permits. However, a more efficient (i.e. stricter) allocation shifts abatement efforts and compliance costs to energy-intensive industries which are covered by the domestic ETS. We further find that committing to ambitious global emissions reduction targets (compatible with stabilizing CO₂ concentrations at 450 ppm) induces much stronger regional abatement efforts and substantially higher compliance costs for the abating regions. In such an ambitious climate policy regime, an efficient domestic allocation of allowances is even more important from an economic perspective: Here, linking emissions trading schemes diminishes the associated compliance costs on the largest scale.

Ensuring the environmental effectiveness of linked emissions trading schemes over time

Linking emissions trading schemes allows the combined emissions cap to be achieved at lower cost. Linking is usually environmentally neutral, but some design features can lead to higher aggregate emissions if schemes are linked. Technical solutions to limit the potential emissions increases due to design differences implemented when schemes are linked are not sufficient to ensure the environmental effectiveness of the linked schemes over time. Technological, economic, administrative and other changes that can lead to higher aggregate emissions are inevitable. The administrators of the linked schemes must ensure the stringency of the emissions cap relative to the “business as usual” emissions of affected sources, the accuracy of the emissions reported by affected sources, the integrity of the allowance registry, effective compliance enforcement, and the environmental integrity of the credits issued for emission reduction projects over time. This will require a process for agreeing on revisions to the regulations of the linked schemes, a mechanism to provide assurance of the environmental effectiveness of each of the linked schemes, and a procedure for terminating the linking agreement.

Fishery livelihoods and adaptation to climate change: a case study of Chilika lagoon, India

Climate change combined with human activities poses significant risks to people’s livelihood especially in developing countries. Adaptation at the community level is of crucial importance in enabling them to respond to the direct and indirect effects of changes in climate. In a case study of fishing communities in Chilika lagoon, India, the focus is made on understanding climate change adaptation at the community level and scaling it up into the policy perspective through application of Sustainable Livelihood Approach. This article challenges the research and policy community to encourage the identification of locally negative constraints and positive strengths toward climate resilient communities in rural areas.

Sustainable development as a framework for developing country participation in international climate change policies

The paper presents a number of ideas on how climate change policy implementation in developing countries can be supported by alternative international cooperation mechanisms that are based on stakeholder interests and policy priorities including broader economic and social development issues. It includes a brief review of current development policies, technological research and promotion efforts, and climate change that demonstrates that mutual policy initiatives undertaken by governments and the private sector actually have major positive impacts on climate change without being initiated by this global policy concern. Furthermore a number of examples are given on how future development objectives in Brazil, China, and India jointly can support economic and social goals and global climate change concerns if these goals are taken into consideration and supported by international cooperative mechanisms. The paper proposes international cooperative mechanisms that can support the implementation of integrated development and climate change policies. The mechanisms include an international sustainable development (SD) and Climate Finance Mechanism (SDCFM), technology development and transition programmes, technology standards, and other measures.

Setting greenhouse gas emission targets under baseline uncertainty: the Bush Climate Change Initiative

There is substantial uncertainty regarding baseline greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions forecasts—i.e., how GHG emissions will grow over time in the absence of policy intervention. Thus baseline uncertainty should be a key consideration in setting GHG emissions targets as a mitigation strategy to respond to global climate change. At a minimum, the emissions target must be less than the baseline level to induce changing behavior and new investment. Despite this fundamental policy criterion, baseline considerations have played only a minor role in target setting under international climate policy. Baseline uncertainty applies to both absolute and intensity based emissions targets. It is demonstrated that one advantage of intensity targets is reduced uncertainty in the projected baseline, however there will always be some residual uncertainty in model projections. To illustrate the importance of considering baseline uncertainty in GHG target setting, the Bush Climate Change Initiative is analyzed against its projected baseline as a case study of a modest intensity target. Based on comparison with historical data, the range of projections by major energy-economic models, past discrepancies in the accuracy of model projections and the added complexity of sector-specific drivers for non-CO₂ GHGs, it is shown that the Bush Initiative cannot be guaranteed or even expected to deliver actual reductions against an uncertain baseline. This finding emphasizes the importance of setting a target that accounts for baseline uncertainty to achieve genuine mitigation of GHG emissions.

Challenges and opportunities of a post-Kyoto mitigation regime: a survey of the European electricity sector

This paper empirically shows how the uncertainty associated to the absence of a mitigation regime which follows the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Kyoto Protocol (UN FCCC Kyoto Protocol) is affecting investments in abatement activities in the EU electricity sector and, thus, future emissions levels. Based on a survey of EU electric utilities, it identifies the most likely post-Kyoto scenarios considered by them and how they are coping with such uncertainty in their investment decisions. It is found that firms react differently to such uncertainty and adopt different strategies to cope with it, diversifying their emissions control activities. Although most companies foresee post-Kyoto compliance regimes with emissions trading systems, they differ in their perceptions of the form that a post-Kyoto regime could take and are, thus, positioning differently to face such regime. The particular features of each company and the country where they operate affect their perception of the uncertainties, their position regarding a possible post-Kyoto regime and their inclination to carry out mitigation activities. Complying with Kyoto (and, eventually, post-Kyoto) targets significantly influences the investment decisions of European electricity companies. Uncertainty about a post-Kyoto regime may already be affecting investments in mitigation activities in the electricity sector. Therefore, significant progress has to be made in the definition of a post-Kyoto regime. It is urgent to define and agree internationally the emissions reduction objectives and the mitigation instruments that will be accepted for compliance, ensuring continuity of the international emissions trading system foreseen in the Kyoto Protocol.

Approaches to semi-synthetic minimal cells: a review

Following is a synthetic review on the minimal living cell, defined as an artificial or a semi-artificial cell having the minimal and sufficient number of components to be considered alive. We describe concepts and experiments based on these constructions, and we point out that an operational definition of minimal cell does not define a single species, but rather a broad family of interrelated cell-like structures. The relevance of these researches, considering that the minimal cell should also correspond to the early simple cell in the origin of life and early evolution, is also explained. In addition, we present detailed data in relation to minimal genome, with observations cited by several authors who agree on setting the theoretical full-fledged minimal genome to a figure between 200 and 300 genes. However, further theoretical assumptions may significantly reduce this number (i.e. by eliminating ribosomal proteins and by limiting DNA and RNA polymerases to only a few, less specific molecular species). Generally, the experimental approach to minimal cells consists in utilizing liposomes as cell models and in filling them with genes/enzymes corresponding to minimal cellular functions. To date, a few research groups have successfully induced the expression of single proteins, such as the green fluorescence protein, inside liposomes. Here, different approaches are described and compared. Present constructs are still rather far from the minimal cell, and experimental as well as theoretical difficulties opposing further reduction of complexity are discussed. While most of these minimal cell constructions may represent relatively poor imitations of a modern full-fledged cell, further studies will begin precisely from these constructs. In conclusion, we give a brief outline of the next possible steps on the road map to the minimal cell.

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The interaction between emissions trading and renewable electricity support schemes. An overview of the literature

The public promotion of electricity from renewable energy sources coexists in many countries with the recent implementation of emissions trading schemes. As shown by several papers, this coexistence may lead to significant interactions between both instruments, in the form of synergies and conflicts. This paper provides an overview and analysis of the literature on such coexistence and interactions. A major conclusion is that policy measures aiming at exploiting the synergies between both instruments should be implemented. The greatest synergy effects from the use of both instruments take place through appropriate coordination of their targets. Another key finding is that, although some stylised facts can be inferred from the studies, some results from those complex interactions are context-specific since they depend on the design of the instruments in particular countries. In spite of the significant policy implications of such interactions for the effective and cost-effective functioning of both instruments, this is a surprisingly under searched field. It is so concerning, both, theoretical and empirical analysis.

Land use change and forestry climate project regional baselines: a review

Climate change programs have largely used the project-specific approach for estimating baseline emissions of climate mitigation projects. This approach is subjective, lacks transparency, can generate inconsistent baselines for similar projects, and is likely to have high transaction costs. The use of regional baselines, which partially addresses these issues, has been reported in the literature on forestry and agriculture projects, and in greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation program guidance for them (e.g., WRI/WBCSD GHG Project Protocol, USDOE’s 1605(b) registry, UNFCCC’s Clean Development Mechanism). This paper provides an assessment of project-specific and regional baselines approaches for key baseline tasks, using project and program examples. The regional experience to date is then synthesized into generic steps that are referred to as Stratified Regional Baselines (SRB). Regional approaches generally, and SRB in particular explicitly acknowledge the heterogeneity of carbon density, land use change, and other key baseline driver variables across a landscape. SRB focuses on providing guidance on how to stratify lands into parcels with relatively homogeneous characteristics to estimate conservative baselines within a GHG assessment boundary, by applying systematic methods to determine the boundary and time period for input data.

Institutional dynamics and climate change adaptation in South Africa

Climate change is a multi-dimensional issue and in terms of adaptation numerous state and non-state actors are involved from global to national and local scales. The aim of this paper is first to analyse specific institutional networks involved in climate change predominantly at the national level in South Africa and second to determine how different stakeholders perceive their role vis-a-vis climate change adaptation. Within the South African context there is a gap in understanding and evaluating how institutional networks operate and thus the findings of this work may help inform and strengthen such relationships in the future. Results showed that few institutions fully understand the implications of adaptation and their roles and responsibilities have not yet been properly defined. Constraints relating to capacity, lack of awareness and poor information flow need to be addressed. Climate change is perceived as an important issue although problems such as poverty reduction and job creation remain national priorities. Most importantly this research has demonstrated how adaptation challenges the hierarchical manner in which government works and a more collaborative approach to climate change adaptation is needed. Adaptation needs to be mainstreamed and institutional networks need to be strengthened in order for adaptation mechanisms to be effectively implemented.

Complementarity between mitigation and adaptation: the water sector

The water cycle, a fundamental component of climate, is likely to be altered in important ways by climate change. Climate change will most likely worsen the already existing water related problems. Then the question is how should policy makers respond to this dilemma. Climate change mitigation, through greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction and sequestration is not a sufficient response. Adaptation will also need to feature as a response strategy. Mitigation and adaptation need to be viewed as complementary responses to climate change. Complementarity between adaptation and mitigation in the water sector will be addressed in this paper. The paper will also outline the main impacts of climate change on water resources and identify those areas that are most dependent and vulnerable to hydrological systems (e.g., hydroelectric systems, irrigation, agriculture) and any changes thereof resulting from climate change. It will aim to assess the impact of water demand and water use, with a view to identifying the main relationships between mitigation and adaptation in the water sector and the means through which individual mitigation and adaptation actions can potentially interact with each other for the benefit of the water sector as a whole. It will also explore the implications of climate change on the management of water resources. Adaptation and mitigation options would be considered in the context of their socio-economic and environmental impacts and their contribution to sustainable development. A brief evaluation of how this information can be directly used for planning purpose will also be presented.

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Adaptation and mitigation as complementary tools for reducing the risk of climate impacts

This paper uses the likelihood of flooding along Brahmaputra and Ganges Rivers in India to explore the hypothesis that adaptation and mitigation can be viewed as complements rather than sustitutes. For futures where climate change will produce smooth, monotonic and manageable effects, adopting a mitigation strategy is shown to increase the ability of adaptation to reduce the likelihood of crossing critical threshold of tolerable climate. For futures where climate change will produce variable impacts overtime, though, it is possible that mitigation will make adaptation less productive for some time intervals. In cases of exaggerated climate change, adaptation may fail entirely regardless of how much mitigation is applied. Judging the degree of complementarity is therefore an empirical question because the relative efficacy of adaptation is site specific and path dependent. It follows that delibrations over climate policy should rely more on detailed analyses of how the distributions of possible impacts of climate might change over space and time.

The value of energy efficiency programs for US residential and commercial buildings in a warmer world

US residential and commercial buildings were responsible for about 41 exajoules (EJ) of primary energy use per year in 2002, accounting for approximately 9% of the world fossil-fuel related anthropogenic carbon (C) emissions of 6.7 Gt that contribute to climate change. US Government-sponsored building energy efficiency research and implementation programs are focused on reducing energy consumption in US residential and commercial buildings and reducing these carbon (C) emissions. Although not specifically intended for adaptation to a warmer climate and less effective than under today’s cooler climate, these programs also could help reduce energy demand in a future warmer world. Warming scenarios projected by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001 imply net overall decreases in both site energy and primary energy consumption in US residential and commercial buildings, largely because of the reduced need for heating. However, there would be as much as a 25% increase in building space cooling demand and a significant part of the increase could be offset by energy-efficiency improvements in buildings. Overall, in the US, buildings-related energy efficiency programs would reduce site energy consumption in buildings in the US by more than 2 EJ in 2020 and primary energy by more than 3.5 EJ, more than enough to offset the projected growth in cooling energy consumption due to climate change and growth in the US building stock. The savings would have an estimated annual net value at 2005 energy prices of between $45.0 and $47.3 billion to consumers.

Advancing the climate regime through linking domestic emission trading systems?

More and more countries are incorporating the instrument of emissions trading into their national climate policies. This emerging mosaic of emissions trading schemes (ETS) raises the question of whether they should be linked with each other. From an economic point of view, linking of domestic schemes is supposed to increase the economic efficiency of carbon markets. In addition, linking is also expected by some to yield substantial political benefits in terms of the evolution of the UNFCCC/Kyoto regime. However, these optimistic prospects are based on a best-case scenario where all major countries establish environmentally effective emissions trading systems and then link them with each other. Real-life politics might develop rather differently. This paper therefore examines to what extent the current status of emissions trading in industrialised countries provides a basis for reinforcing and moving forward the international climate regime through linking domestic ETS. After comparing emerging emissions trading schemes from an institutional perspective, it emerges that not only emissions trading is at a very early stage in most countries, in addition the emerging systems are probably going to be designed very differently from the EU ETS. While for some design features such as the coverage design differences do not matter, there are some areas where the plans in many non-EU countries look crucially different from the EU system. The outlook for a linked international ETS is therefore currently still very uncertain. Given this state of affairs, the EU should pro-actively engage with the non-EU countries to try to harmonise their developing national emissions trading schemes with the EU ETS, widely disseminate the lessons it has learned from the EU ETS, strongly make the case for environmental integrity and at the same time make clear that systems that want to link to the EU ETS will need to meet certain quality criteria.

A review on molecular topology: applying graph theory to drug discovery and design

Molecular topology is an application of graph theory and statistics in fields like chemistry, biology, and pharmacology, in which the molecular structure matters. Its scope is the topological characterization of molecules by means of numerical invariants, called topological indices, which are the main ingredients of the molecular topological models. These are statistical models that are instrumental in the discovery of new applications of naturally occurring molecules, as well as in the design of synthetic molecules with specific chemical, biological, or pharmacological properties. In this review, we focus on pharmacology, which is a novel field of application of molecular topology. Besides summarizing some recent developments, we also seek to bring closer this interesting biomedical application of mathematics to an interdisciplinary readership.

Development of an agroforestry carbon sequestration project in Khammam district,India

This paper addresses methodological issues in estimating carbon (C) sequestration potential, baseline determination, additionality and leakage in Khammam district, Andhra Pradesh, southern part of India. Technical potential for afforestation on cultivable wastelands, fallow, and marginal croplands was considered for Eucalyptus clonal plantations. Field studies for aboveground and belowground biomass, woody litter, and soil organic carbon for baseline and project scenarios were conducted to estimate the carbon sequestration potential. The baseline carbon stock was estimated to be 45.3 t C/ha, predominately in soils. The additional carbon sequestration potential under the project scenario for 30 years is estimated to be 12.8 t C/ha/year inclusive of harvest regimes and carbon emissions due to biomass burning and fertilizer application. Considering carbon storage in harvested wood, an additional 45% carbon benefit can be accounted. The project scenario has a higher benefit/cost ratio compared to the baseline scenario. The initial investment cost requirement, however, is high and lack of access to investment is a significant barrier for adoption of agroforestry in the district.

Temporary storage of carbon in the biosphere does have value for climate change mitigation: a response to the paper by Miko Kirschbaum

Kirschbaum (Mitig Adapt Strat Glob Change 11:1151–1164, 2006) explores the climatic impact over time of temporarily sequestering carbon from the atmosphere. He concludes that temporary storage of carbon in the terrestrial biosphere “achieves effectively no climate-change mitigation”. His strongly worded statement begs for a response. This paper argues that Kirschbaum’s conclusion is an artifact of the specific perspective of his analysis and his choice of a definition for climate-change impact. Even temporary sinks put us on a lower path for climate change, a path that will not otherwise be accessible. For carbon sinks in the terrestrial biosphere, we argue that sooner is better and longer is better, but even known temporary sinks have value.