SOUND POLICY OR SMOKE AND MIRRORS: DOES ECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENT MAKE SENSE?1

ABSTRACT: Protection of ecosystems as entities on the landscape has attracted a wide range of support. Ecosystem-based public policies are claimed to be more effective, efficient, and scientifically sound than other approaches to environmental and natural resource policy. The ecosystem concept was never intended to serve as a public policy guide or to determine landscape units for land management purposes. This paper critically examines the use of the ecosystem concept in public policy and land use management and analyzes the proposed rule to manage the National Forest System according to ecosystem management principles. The concept is found to be unsuitable as a basis for guiding environmental and natural resource public policies in general while the proposed rule to manage the national forests according to ecosystem management principles is shown to be incoherent.     

Assessing Public Perceptions of Computer-Based Models

Although there is a solid body of research on both collaborative decision-making and on processes using models, there is little research on general public attitudes about models and their use in making policy decisions. This project assessed opinions about computer models in general and attitudes about a specific model being used in water planning in the Middle Rio Grande Region of New Mexico, United States. More than 1000 individuals were surveyed about their perceptions of computer-based models in general. Additionally, more than 150 attendees at public meetings related to the Middle Rio Grande planning effort were surveyed about their perceptions of the specific Rio Grande-based model. The results reveal that the majority of respondents are confident in their ability to understand models and most believe that models are appropriate tools for education and for making policy decisions. Responses also reveal that trust in who develops a model is a key issue related to public support. Regarding the specific model highlighted in this project, the public revealed tremendous support for its usefulness as a public engagement tool as well as a tool to assist decision-makers in regional water planning. Although indicating broad support for models, the results do raise questions about the role of trust in using models in contentious decisions.     

The Politics of Participation in Watershed Modeling

While researchers and decision-makers increasingly recognize the importance of public participation in environmental decision-making, there is less agreement about how to involve the public. One of the most controversial issues is how to involve citizens in producing scientific information. Although this question is relevant to many areas of environmental policy, it has come to the fore in watershed management. Increasingly, the public is becoming involved in the sophisticated computer modeling efforts that have been developed to inform watershed management decisions. These models typically have been treated as technical inputs to the policy process. However, model-building itself involves numerous assumptions, judgments, and decisions that are relevant to the public. This paper examines the politics of public involvement in watershed modeling efforts and proposes five guidelines for good practice for such efforts. Using these guidelines, I analyze four cases in which different approaches to public involvement in the modeling process have been attempted and make recommendations for future efforts to involve communities in watershed modeling.     

Can market-based policies accomplish the optimal floodplain management? A gap between static and dynamic models

The purpose of this short article is to set static and dynamic models for optimal floodplain management and to compare policy implications from the models. River floodplains are important multiple resources in that they provide various ecosystem services. It is fundamentally significant to consider environmental externalities that accrue from ecosystem services of natural floodplains. There is an interesting gap between static and dynamic models about policy implications for floodplain management, although they are based on the same assumptions. Essentially, we can derive the same optimal conditions, which imply that the marginal benefits must equal the sum of the marginal costs and the social external costs related to ecosystem services. Thus, we have to internalise the external costs by market-based policies. In this respect, market-based policies seem to be effective in a static model. However, they are not sufficient in the context of a dynamic model because the optimal steady state turns out to be unstable. Based on a dynamic model, we need more coercive regulation policies.     

Modeling human-induced climatic change: A summary for environmental managers

The rapid increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases has caused concern because of their potential to alter the earth's radiation budget and disrupt current climate patterns While there are many uncertainties associated with use of general circulation models (GCMs), GCMs are currently the best available technology to project changes in climate associated with elevated gas concentrations. Results indicate increases in global temperature and changes in global precipitation patterns are likely as a result of doubled CO₂. GCMs are not reliable for use at the regional scale because local scale processes and geography are not taken into account. Comparison of results from five GCMs in three regions of the United States indicate high variability across regions and among models depending on season and climate variable. Statistical methods of scaling model output and nesting finer resolution models in global models are two techniques that may improve projections. Despite the many limitations in GCMs, they are useful tools to explore climate-earth system dynamics when used in conjunction with water resource and ecosystem models. A variety of water resource models showed significant alteration of regional hydrology when run with both GCM-generated and hypothetical climate scenarios, regardless of region or model complexity. Similarly, ecological models demonstrate the sensitivity of ecosystem production, nutrient dynamics, and distribution to changes in climate and CO₂ levels. We recommend the use of GCM-based scenarios in conjunction with water resource and ecosystem models to guide environmental management and policy in a “no-regrets” framework or as part of a precautionary approach to natural resource protection.     

Impact of Perceived Importance of Ecosystem Services and Stated Financial Constraints on Willingness to Pay for Riparian Meadow Restoration in Flanders (Belgium)

The strategic importance of ecosystem service valuation as an operational basis for policy decisions on natural restoration has been increasingly recognized in order to align the provision of ecosystem services with the expectation of human society. The contingent valuation method (CVM) is widely used to quantify various ecosystem services. However, two areas of concern arise: (1) whether people value specific functional ecosystem services and overlook some intrinsic aspects of natural restoration, and (2) whether people understand the temporal dimension of ecosystem services and payment schedules given in the contingent scenarios. Using a peri-urban riparian meadow restoration project in Flanders, Belgium as a case, we explored the impacts of residents’ perceived importance of various ecosystem services and stated financial constraints on their willingness-to-pay for the proposed restoration project employing the CVM. The results indicated that people tended to value all the benefits of riparian ecosystem restoration concurrently, although they accorded different importances to each individual category of ecosystem services. A longer payment scheme can help the respondents to think more about the flow of ecosystem services into future generations. A weak temporal embedding effect can be detected, which might be attributed to respondents’ concern about current financial constraints, rather than financial bindings associated with their income and perceived future financial constraints. This demonstrates the multidimensionality of respondents’ financial concerns in CV. This study sheds light on refining future CV studies, especially with regard to public expectation of ecosystem services and the temporal dimension of ecosystem services and payment schedules.     

Realizing the Potential of Ecosystem Services: A Framework for Relating Ecological Changes to Economic Benefits

Increasingly government agencies are seeking to quantify the outcomes of proposed policy options in terms of ecosystem service benefits, yet conflicting definitions and ad hoc approaches to measuring ecosystem services have created confusion regarding how to rigorously link ecological change to changes in human well-being. Here, we describe a step-by-step framework for producing ecological models and metrics that can effectively serve an economic-benefits assessment of a proposed change in policy or management. A focus of the framework is developing comparable units of ecosystem goods and services to support decision-making, even if outcomes cannot be monetized. Because the challenges to translating ecological changes to outcomes appropriate for economic analyses are many, we discuss examples that demonstrate practical methods and approaches to overcoming data limitations. The numerous difficult decisions that government agencies must make to fairly use and allocate natural resources provides ample opportunity for interdisciplinary teams of natural and social scientists to improve methods for quantifying changes in ecosystem services and their effects on human well-being. This framework is offered with the intent of promoting the success of such teams as they support managers in evaluating the equivalency of ecosystem service offsets and trades, establishing restoration and preservation priorities, and more generally, in developing environmental policy that effectively balances multiple perspectives.     

A system dynamics model to facilitate public understanding of water management options in Las Vegas,Nevada

Water managers increasingly are faced with the challenge of building public or stakeholder support for resource management strategies. Building support requires raising stakeholder awareness of resource problems and understanding about the consequences of different policy options. One approach that can help managers communicate with stakeholders is system dynamics modeling. Used interactively in a public forum, a system dynamics model can be used to explain the resource system and illustrate the effects of strategies proposed by managers or suggested by forum participants. This article illustrates the process of building a strategic-level system dynamics model using the case of water management in Las Vegas, Nevada. The purpose of the model was to increase public understanding of the value of water conservation in Las Vegas. The effects of policies on water supply and demand in the system are not straightforward because of the structure of the system. Multiple feedback relationships lead to the somewhat counterintuitive result that reducing residential outdoor water use has a much greater effect on water demand than reducing indoor water use by the same amount. The model output shows this effect clearly. This paper describes the use of the model in research workshops and discusses the potential of this kind of interactive model to stimulate stakeholder interest in the structure of the system, engage participant interest more deeply, and build stakeholder understanding of the basis for management decisions.     

A formal model for consensus and negotiation in environmental management

Environmental management decisions typically lie at the interface of science and public policy. Consequently, these decisions involve a number of stakeholders with competing agendas and vested interests in the ultimate decision. In such cases, it is appropriate to adopt formal methods for consensus building to ensure transparent and repeatable decisions. In this paper, we use an environmental management case study to demonstrate the utility of a mathematical consensus convergence model in aggregating values (or weights) across groups. Consensus models are applicable when all parties agree to negotiate in order to resolve conflict. The advantage of this method is that it does not require that all members of the group reach agreement, often an impossible task in group decision making. Instead, it uses philosophical foundations in consensus building to aggregate group members' values in a way that guarantees convergence towards a single consensual value that summarizes the group position. We highlight current problems with ad hoc consensus and negotiation methods, provide justification for the adoption of formal consensus convergence models and compare the consensus convergence model with currently used methods for aggregating values across a group in a decision making context. The model provides a simple and transparent decision support tool for group decision making that is straightforward to implement.     

Observed Changes in Climate and Streamflow in the Upper Rio Grande Basin

Observed streamflow and climate data are used to test the hypothesis that climate change is already affecting Rio Grande streamflow volume derived from snowmelt runoff in ways consistent with model‐based projections of 21st‐Century streamflow. Annual and monthly changes in streamflow volume and surface climate variables on the Upper Rio Grande, near its headwaters in southern Colorado, are assessed for water years 1958–2015. Results indicate winter and spring season temperatures in the basin have increased significantly, April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) has decreased by approximately 25%, and streamflow has declined slightly in the April–July snowmelt runoff season. Small increases in precipitation have reduced the impact of declining snowpack on trends in streamflow. Changes in the snowpack–runoff relationship are noticeable in hydrographs of mean monthly streamflow, but are most apparent in the changing ratios of precipitation (rain + snow, and SWE) to streamflow and in the declining fraction of runoff attributable to snowpack or winter precipitation. The observed changes provide observational confirmation for model projections of decreasing runoff attributable to snowpack, and demonstrate the decreasing utility of snowpack for predicting subsequent streamflow on a seasonal basis in the Upper Rio Grande Basin.     

THE (POLITICAL) SCIENCE OF WATERSHED MANAGEMENT IN THE ECOSYSTEM AGE1

ABSTRACT: Ecosystem management has become an important unifying theme for environmental policy in the past decade. Whereas the science of ecosystem dynamics suggests that it will remain difficult to define ecosystem borders and all of the natural and anthropogenic effects that influence them, the politics of ecosystem management require that a national ecosystem delineation standard be adopted. Moreover, a political framework for ecosystem management decision making must be designed in such a way as to complement the hierarchical, interrelated nature of ecosystems generally. This paper advocates that a watershed-based ecosystem delineation standard is the most politically suitable because it will be easily understood by the public and watersheds have a long history as a medium of environmental policy. The paper then proposes that the political framework for watershed-based ecosystem management must depend heavily on state and local autonomy, subject to federally prescribed standards and goals. The Coastal Zone Management Act provides a model for how a national ecosystem management policy can work within state and local watershed cultures and economies.     

Chlorophyll a Simulation in a Lake Ecosystem Using a Model with Wavelet Analysis and Artificial Neural Network

Accurate and reliable forecasting is important for the sustainable management of ecosystems. Chlorophyll a (Chl a) simulation and forecasting can provide early warning information and enable managers to make appropriate decisions for protecting lake ecosystems. In this study, we proposed a method for Chl a simulation in a lake that coupled the wavelet analysis and the artificial neural networks (WA–ANN). The proposed method had the advantage of data preprocessing, which reduced noise and managed nonstationary data. Fourteen variables were included in the developed and validated model, relating to hydrologic, ecological and meteorologic time series data from January 2000 to December 2009 at the Lake Baiyangdian study area, North China. The performance of the proposed WA–ANN model for monthly Chl a simulation in the lake ecosystem was compared with a multiple stepwise linear regression (MSLR) model, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and a regular ANN model. The results showed that the WA-ANN model was suitable for Chl a simulation providing a more accurate performance than the MSLR, ARIMA, and ANN models. We recommend that the proposed method be widely applied to further facilitate the development and implementation of lake ecosystem management.     

Implementing Participatory Decision Making in Forest Planning

Forest policy decisions are often a source of debate, conflict, and tension in many countries. The debate over forest land-use decisions often hinges on disagreements about societal values related to forest resource use. Disagreements on social value positions are fought out repeatedly at local, regional, national, and international levels at an enormous social cost. Forest policy problems have some inherent characteristics that make them more difficult to deal with. On the one hand, forest policy decisions involve uncertainty, long time scales, and complex natural systems and processes. On the other hand, such decisions encompass social, political, and cultural systems that are evolving in response to forces such as globalization. Until recently, forest policy was heavily influenced by the scientific community and various economic models of optimal resource use. However, growing environmental awareness and acceptance of participatory democracy models in policy formulation have forced the public authorities to introduce new participatory mechanisms to manage forest resources. Most often, the efforts to include the public in policy formulation can be described using the lower rungs of Arnstein’s public participation typology. This paper presents an approach that incorporates stakeholder preferences into forest land-use policy using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). An illustrative case of regional forest-policy formulation in Australia is used to demonstrate the approach. It is contended that applying the AHP in the policy process could considerably enhance the transparency of participatory process and public acceptance of policy decisions.     

Advisory Committee: A Powerful Tool for Helping Decision Makers in Environmental Issues

/ It has been suggested that the general public should be moreinvolved in environmental policy and decision making. It is important forthem to realize that they will have to live with the consequences ofenvironmental policies and decisions. Consequently, policy makers shouldconsider the concerns and opinions of the general public before makingdecisions on environmental issues. This raises questions such as: How can weintegrate the perceptions and reactions of the general population inenvironmental decisions? What kind of public participation should weconsider? In the present study, using a new regional ecosystem model, weattempted to integrate these aspects in its decision making model byincluding the formation of an advisory committee to resolve problems relatedto waste management. The advisory committee requested the activeparticipation of representatives from all levels of the community: economic,municipal, and governmental intervenors; environmental groups; and citizens.Their mandates were to examine different management strategies available inthe region, considering all the interdisciplinary aspects of each strategy,elaborate recommendations concerning the management strategies that are mostsuitable for all, and collaborate in communication of the information to thegeneral population. The results showed that at least in small municipalitiessuch an advisory committee can be a powerful tool in environmental decisionmaking. Conditions required for a successful consultation process, such aseveryday lay language and the presence of a facilitator other than ascientific expert, are discussed.KEY WORDS: Public consultation; Environmental policies;Interdisciplinary aspects; Municipal sewage sludge management; Generalpopulation; Decision-making process     

Assessing and communicating data quality in policy-relevant research

The quality of scientific information in policy-relevant fields of research is difficult to assess, and quality control in these important areas is correspondingly difficult to maintain. Frequently there are insufficient high-quality measurements for the presentation of the statistical uncertainty in the numerical estimates that are crucial to policy decisions. We propose and develop a grading system for numerical estimates that can deal with the full range of data quality—from statistically valid estimates to informed guesses. By analyzing the underlying quality of numerical estimates, summarized as spread and grade, we are able to provide simple rules whereby input data can be coded for quality, and these codings carried through arithmetical calculations for assessing the quality of model results. For this we use the NUSAP (numeral, unit, spread, assessment, pedigree) notational system. It allows the more quantitative and the more qualitative aspects of data uncertainty to be managed separately. By way of example, we apply the system to an ecosystem valuation study that used several different models and data of widely varying quality to arrive at a single estimate of the economic value of wetlands. The NUSAP approach illustrates the major sources of uncertainty in this study and can guide new research aimed at the improvement of the quality of outputs and the efficiency of the procedures.     

Quantifying sources of climate uncertainty to inform risk analysis for climate change decision-making

Quantitative estimates of future climate change and its various impacts are often based on complex climate models which incorporate a number of physical processes. As these models continue to become more sophisticated, it is commonly assumed that the latest generation of climate models will provide us with better estimates of climate change. Here, we quantify the uncertainty in future climate change projections using two multi-model ensembles of climate model simulations and divide it into different components: internal, scenario and model. The contributions of these sources of uncertainty changes as a function of variable, temporal and spatial scale and especially lead time in the future. In the new models, uncertainty intervals for each of the components have increased. For temperature, importance of scenario uncertainty is the largest over low latitudes and increases nonlinearly after the mid-century. It has a small importance for precipitation simulations on all time scales, which hampers estimating the effect which any mitigation efforts might have. In line with current state-of-the-art adaptation approaches, we argue that despite these uncertainties climate models can provide useful information to support adaptation decision-making. Moreover, adaptation decisions should not be postponed in the hope that future improved scientific understanding will result in more accurate predictions of future climate change. Such simulations might not become available. On the contrary, while planning adaptation initiatives, a rational framework for decision-making under uncertainty should be employed. We suggest that there is an urgent need for continued development and use of improved risk analysis methods for climate change adaptation.     

Ecosystem management: A comparison of greater yellowstone and georges bank

Ecosystem management links human activities with the functioning of natural environments over large spatial and temporal scales. Our examination of Greater Yellowstone and Georges Bank shows similarities exist between human uses, administrative characteristics, and some biophysical features. Each region faces growing pressures to replace traditional extractive uses with more sustainable extractive or noncommodity uses coupled with concern about endangered species. Ecosystem management as a set of practical guidelines for making decisions under evolving expectations is far from complete, and it embodies new demands on individuals and institutions. In each system these challenges are considered relative to: the public's symbolic understanding of the management challenge, ecosystem management ambiguities, information availability, information use, administrative setting, and learning capabilities of governance organizations Progress in making ecosystem management operational may occur as refinements in content and approach make it an increasingly attractive option for resource users, the public, and government officials.     

MAXIMIZING THE VALUE OF INFORMATION FOR GROUND WATER PROTECTION: THREE TEST CASES1

ABSTRACT: Public awareness of the importance of protecting the nation's water supplies is growing. Recent studies have shown a substantial increase in the perceived value of protecting water supplies for future use. In the Northeast, much of the water supply comes from ground water. This paper examines three test cases, each with different approaches for using geographic information systems (GIS) for ground water protection planning. In Wellfleet, Massachusetts, build-out scenarios were used to support regulatory and land acquisition decisions for siting a public water supply well. In Hadley, Massachusetts, the focus was on a decision support model for septic suitability assessment in support of regulatory efforts and infrastructure expansion. For Cortland County, New York, an interactive graphic user interface was created to facilitate the manipulation and recombination of a large volume of data by county officials to target ground water pollution prevention efforts. As personal computers become more powerful and inexpensive, and GIS data become more readily available, community and county governments are turning to GIS as a tool for developing comprehensive resource protection plans. Once appropriate data are input, a GIS can effectively and efficiently be used to derive outcomes of various land use plans and regulations.     

A dynamic simulation based water resources education tool

Educational tools to assist the public in recognizing impacts of water policy in a realistic context are not generally available. This project developed systems with modeling-based educational decision support simulation tools to satisfy this need. The goal of this model is to teach undergraduate students and the general public about the implications of common water management alternatives so that they can better understand or become involved in water policy and make more knowledgeable personal or community decisions. The model is based on Powersim, a dynamic simulation software package capable of producing web-accessible, intuitive, graphic, user-friendly interfaces. Modules are included to represent residential, agricultural, industrial, and turf uses, as well as non-market values, water quality, reservoir, flow, and climate conditions. Supplementary materials emphasize important concepts and lead learners through the model, culminating in an open-ended water management project. The model is used in a University of Arizona undergraduate class and within the Arizona Master Watershed Stewards Program. Evaluation results demonstrated improved understanding of concepts and system interactions, fulfilling the project's objectives.