Monte Carlo assessment of uncertainty in the simulated hydrological response to land use change

We quantified the uncertainty in hydrological response for a set of land use change scenarios by varying plant parameters within realistic uncertainty bounds in a Monte Carlo analysis. The results show that simulated hydrological fluxes significantly change after the introduction of outwintering suckler cow management, despite the presence of a significant amount of output uncertainty due to uncertainty in the plant parameterisation. The key to a proper uncertainty assessment was to consider the uncertainty in the difference between the scenarios instead of the absolute uncertainty of each single scenario. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis showed that changing soil properties in response to land use change does not result in significantly different results in the scenario analysis.     

Regional impact analysis of climate change on natural and managed forests in the Federal State of Brandenburg, Germany

A methodology for regional application of forest simulation models has been developed as part of an assessment of possible climate change impacts in the Federal state of Brandenburg (Germany). Here we report on the application of a forest gap model to analyse the impacts of climate change on species composition and productivity of natural and managed forests in Brandenburg using a statistical method for the development of climate scenarios. The forest model was linked to a GIS that includes soil and groundwater table maps, as well as gridded climate data with a resolution of 10 × 10 km and simulated a steady-state species composition which was classified into forest types based on the biomass distribution between species. Different climate scenarios were used to assess the sensitivity of species composition to climate change. The simulated forest distribution patterns for current climate were compared with a map of Potential Natural Vegetation (PNV) of Brandenburg.In order to analyse the possible consequences of climate change on forest management, we used forest inventory data to initialize the model with representative forest stands. Simulation experiments with two different management strategies indicated how forest management could respond to the projected impacts of climate change. The combination of regional analysis of natural forest dynamics under climate change with simulation experiments for managed forests outlines possible trends for the forest resources. The implications of the results are discussed, emphasizing the regional differences in environmental risks and the adaptation potentials of forestry in Brandenburg.     

global climate change: processes and products – an overview

Our knowledge of global climate change has many uncertainties.Whether global air temperature will increase, by how much, and when,are subject to debate, but there is little doubt that troposphericconcentrations of several trace gases are increasing. While possibleincreases in the average air temperature is a product of these changes,the increases in the trace gases alone will have an effect on agriculture.Increases in the ambient concentrations of carbon dioxide are expectedto have a positive net effect on crop production. In contrast, anyincreases in the penetration of surface-level ultraviolet-B (280–320 nm)radiation, and known increases in surface ozone concentrations, areconsidered to have adverse effects on certain crops. Our presentknowledge of the joint effects on crops of elevated levels of carbondioxide, ultraviolet-B radiation and ozone, and possible alterations in airtemperature and precipitation patterns, is virtually zero. Therefore, anypredictions of the effects of global climate change on agriculture aresubject to significant uncertainties. In contrast, coupling of climatechange (only temperature and precipitation) models to crop productionhas led to a number of future scenarios. In spite of theirpresent limitations, results from these efforts can be useful in planningfor future agriculture.     

Effects of climate and landcover change on stream discharge in the Ozark Highlands,USA

Stream discharge of a watershed is affected and altered by climate and landcover changes. These effects vary depending on the magnitude and interaction of the changes, and need to be understood so that local water resource availability can be evaluated and socioeconomic development within a watershed be pursued and managed in a way sustainable with the local water resources. In this study, the landcover and climate change effects on stream discharge from the Jacks Fork River basin in the Ozark Highlands of the south-central United States were examined in three phases: site observation and data collection, model calibration and simulation, and model experiment and analysis. Major results of the study show that climate fluctuations between wet and dry extremes resulted in the same change of the basin discharge regardless of the landcover condition in the basin. On the other hand, under a specified climate condition landcover change from a grassland basin to a fully forested basin only resulted in about one half of the discharge change caused by the climate variation. Furthermore, when landcover change occurred simultaneously with climate variation, the basin discharge change amplified significantly and became larger than the combined discharge changes caused by the climate and landcover change alone, a result indicating a synergistic effect of landcover and climate change on basin discharge variability. Agricultural Research Division, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Contribution Number 13437.Qi Hu: Corresponding author: Dr. Qi Hu, Climate and Bio-Atmospheric Sciences Group, School of Natural Resource Sciences, 237 L.W. Chase Hall, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE 68583-0728, USA. E-mail: qhu2@unl.edu.     

Mesoscale ecohydrological modelling to analyse regional effects of climate change

Hydrological processes and crop growth were simulated for the state of Brandenburg (Germany) using the hydrological/vegetation/water quality model SWIM, which can be applied for mesoscale river basins or regions. Hydrological validation was carried out for three mesoscale river basins in the area. The crop growth module was validated regionally for winter wheat, winter barley and maize. After that the analysis of climate change impacts on hydrology and crop growth was performed, using a transient 1.5 K scenario of climate change for Brandenburg and restricting the crop spectrum to the three above mentioned crops. According to the scenario, precipitation is expected to increase. The impact study was done comparing simulation results for two scenario periods 2022–2030 and 2042–2050 with those for a reference period 1981–1992. The atmospheric CO₂ concentrations for the reference period and two scenario periods were set to 346, 406 and 436 ppm, respectively. Two different methods – an empirical one and a semi-mechanistic one – were used for adjustment of net photosynthesis to altered CO₂. With warming, the model simulates an increase of evapotranspiration (+9.5%, +15.4%) and runoff (+7.0%, +17.2%). The crop yield was only slightly altered under the climate change only scenario (no CO₂ fertilization effect) for barley and maize, and it was reduced for wheat (–6.2%, –10.3%). The impact of higher atmospheric CO₂ compensated for climate-related wheat yield losses, and resulted in an increased yield both for barley and maize compared to the reference scenario. The simulated combined effect of climate change and elevated CO₂ on crop yield was about 7% higher for the C₃ crops when the CO₂ and temperature interaction was ignored. The assumption that stomatal control of transpiration is taking place at the regional scale led to further increase in crop yield, which was larger for maize than for wheat and barley. The regional water balance was practically not affected by the partial stimulation of net photosynthesis due to higher CO₂, while the introduction of stomatal control of regional transpiration reduced evapotranspiration and enlarged notably runoff and ground water recharge.     

Earth system analysis and management

A research strategy based upon models of intermediate complexity addressing crucial aspects of global environmental change is presented. The key idea behind that strategy is to compress system complexity either by formal techniques such that first-order aspects are preserved, or to employ semi-qualitative schemes to describe and simulate the dominant dynamical patterns identified by panoramic inspection.Specific realizations of the overall heuristic philosophy are introduced as elements of a comprehensive research program on global change. Topics encompass global climate modeling, a decision analysis framework for managing the global warming problem by balancing adaptation and mitigation efforts, a generic approach to integrated regional climate impact assessment and its implementation in specific regions, as well as a new technique to link regional and global patterns of environmental change by using advanced modeling tools.     

Syndromes of Global Change: a qualitative modelling approach to assist global environmental management

A novel transdisciplinary approach to investigate Global Change (GC) is presented. The approach rests on the decomposition of the intrigue dynamics of GC into patterns of civilization–nature interactions (syndromes) by an iterative scientific process of observations, data and system theoretical analyses, and modelling attempts. We illustrate the approach by a detailed analysis of the Sahel Syndrome, which describes the rural poverty driven overuse of natural resources. The investigation is performed by (i) identifying relevant symptoms and interlinkages which are characteristics for this pattern, and (ii) a qualitative model representing the internal dynamics of the essential flywheel. The geographical patchwork of the regions affected by the syndrome which is obtained by global data analysis, proves the high global relevance of this pattern. The qualitative model is employed for an evaluation of basic policy strategies debated in the context of rural poverty driven environmental degradation. It turns out that a mixed policy of combating poverty and introducing soil preserving agricultural techniques and practices is most promising to tackle the syndrome dynamics.     

1982—2012年滇池水质变化及社会经济发展对水质的影响

滇池是中国著名的高原淡水湖泊,是国家"三河三湖"治理重点之一。采用Mann-Kendall和Daniel趋势检验法解析滇池外海在1982—2012年典型污染物指标(CODMn、BOD5、TN、NH3-N和TP)的年际变化特征;对滇池流域人口、人均GDP与滇池CODMn、TN和TP相关性进行研究,阐明流域社会经济发展对滇池水质变化的影响。研究结果表明,滇池各污染物指标年际变化波动较大。在α=0.01的显著水平上TN和NH3-N有显著上升趋势,CODMn和TP有上升趋势但不显著,BOD5基本未发生趋势变化,Mann-Kendall和Daniel趋势检验结果基本一致。滇池TN、CODMn与流域人口、人均GDP密切相关,社会经济发展是TN和CODMn浓度上升的重要原因;随着滇池污染治理工作的不断推进,特别是"十一五"水污染治理规划实施以来,流域社会经济发展对滇池TP、TN影响有所减轻,滇池磷的治理取得初步成效。     

Climatic Implications of Revised IPCC Emissions Scenarios, the Kyoto Protocol and Quantification of Uncertainties

In December 1997, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) adopted the Kyoto Protocol. This paper describes a framework that models the climatic implications of this international agreement, using Monte Carlo simulations and the preliminary Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenarios (SRES). Emissions scenarios (including intervention scenarios), climate sensitivity, and terrestrial carbon sink are the key sampled model parameters. This framework gives prior probability distributions to these parameters and, using a simple climate model, posterior distributions of global temperature change are determined for the future. Our exercise showed that the Kyoto Protocol's effectiveness will be mostly dependent upon which SRES world evolves. In some worlds the Protocol decreases the warming considerably but in others it is almost irrelevant. We exemplified this approach with a current FCCC issue, namely “hot air”. This modelling framework provides a probabilistic assessment of climate policies, which can be useful for decision-makers involved in global climate change management. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

奎屯市一水厂水质现状及趋势分析

利用1996 - 2005年的地下水质监测数据,对奎屯市饮用水源地进行了现状评价,选择奎屯市一水厂作为研究目标,对总硬度、硝酸盐氮和硫酸盐三项指标的变化趋势进行分析,并对其变化成因进行了探讨.     

“十一五”期间新疆湖库水质变化趋势及原因分析

通过对新疆湖库“十一五”期间水质变化趋势的分析,结合五年间地方政府采取的综合污染防治措施,分析了水质变化的原因,并提出相应对策建议,以便更好地推进新疆湖库水污染防治工作。     

Uncertainty and economic analysis of climate change: A survey of approaches and findings

The analysis of climate change is confronted with large uncertainties that need to be taken into account to arrive at meaningful policy recommendations. The main contribution of economics to this interdisciplinary task is to provide formal frameworks and techniques for analyzing climate policy in the context of uncertainty. This paper will give an overview of existing approaches and findings to provide a broad picture of what economics can contribute to the debate.     

A new model for climate system analysis: Outline of the model and application to palaeoclimate simulations

We present a new reduced-form model for climate system analysis. This model, called CLIMBER-2 (for CLIMate and BiosphERe, level 2), fills the current gap between simple, highly parameterized climate models and computationally expensive coupled models of global atmospheric and oceanic circulation. We outline the basic assumptions implicit in CLIMBER-2 and we present examples of climate system analysis including a study of atmosphere–ocean interaction during the last glacial maximum, an analysis of synergism between various components of the climate system during the mid-Holocene around 6000 years ago, and a transient simulation of climate change during the last 8000 years. These studies demonstrate the feasibility of a computationally efficient analysis of climate system dynamics which is a prerequisite for future climate impact research and, more generally, Earth system analysis, i.e., the analysis of feedbacks between our environment and human activities.     

国家地表水环境质量评价、分析与表征系统初步构建

随着国家地表水环境质量监测网络的优化调整以及水质自动监测与采测分离手工监测相结合模式的完全确立,每个月产生数百万计的监测数据。为全面支撑海量监测数据的传输、融合、处理、挖掘、分析、表征,构建了国家地表水环境质量评价、分析与表征系统。通过在多源异构数据融合、智能化数据质量控制、多层级水质评价与统计分析、地图动态数据表征等方面的技术创新,构建了包括数据来源层、数据存储层、应用支撑层、业务应用层和表征展示层5个主要部分的系统。形成了"一个融合、两个数据库、三个应用、四个中心",实现了数据集成融合、数据共享互通、数据统计分析、水质报告生成、地图空间表征、综合大屏展示等6个方面主要功能。应用于国家地表水环境监测评价业务工作,能够及时、直观、准确、全面地展现全国地表水环境质量状况,为全国地表水环境质量管理决策、业务处理、科学研究提供有效的信息支撑。     

长春南湖底泥疏浚前后水因子分析及动态变化

监测了长春南湖底泥疏浚后的DO、NH4＿N、NO2＿N、NO3＿N、BOD5、CODCr、TN、TP、SS、pH、SD和水温等12项水化学指标。用因子分析方法找出了底泥疏浚前后影响南湖水质的主要因子,分析了底泥疏浚前后南湖水质变化的特征和底泥疏浚对南湖水质的影响,分析结果表明,南湖疏浚前主要污染物是总磷,疏浚后总磷对水质的影响降低,悬浮物作用增大。     

Phase I of the Kissimmee River restoration project, Florida, USA: Impacts of construction on water quality

Phase I of the Kissimmee River restoration project included backfilling of 12 km of canal and restoring flow through 24 km of continuous river channel. We quantified the effects of construction activities on four water quality parameters (turbidity, total phosphorus flow-weighted concentration, total phosphorus load and dissolved oxygen concentration). Data were collected at stations upstream and downstream of the construction and at four stations within the construction zone to determine if canal backfilling and construction of 2.4 km of new river channel would negatively impact local and downstream water quality. Turbidity levels at the downstream station were elevated for approximately 2 weeks during the one and a half year construction period, but never exceeded the Florida Department of Environmental Protection construction permit criteria. Turbidity levels at stations within the construction zone were high at certain times. Flow-weighted concentration of total phosphorus at the downstream station was slightly higher than the upstream station during construction, but low discharge limited downstream transport of phosphorus. Total phosphorus loads at the upstream and downstream stations were similar and loading to Lake Okeechobee was not significantly affected by construction. Mean water column dissolved oxygen concentrations at all sampling stations were similar during construction.     

Water Quality during Development and Apportionment of Pollution from Rivers in Tapeng Lagoon, Taiwan

This work investigated water samples collected from Tapeng Lagoon, Taiwan. Factor analysis was conducted to explain the characteristics and the variation in the quality of water during the disassembly of oyster frames and fishery boxes. The result shows that the most important latent factors in Tapeng Lagoon are the ocean factor, primary productivity factor, and the fishery pollution factor. Canonical discriminant analysis is applied to identify the source of pollution in neighboring rivers outside Tapeng Lagoon. The two constructed discriminant functions (CDFs) showed markedly contribution to all discriminant variables, and that total nitrogen, algae, dissolved oxygen and total phosphate, combined in the nutrient effect factor. The recognition capacities in these two CDFs were 95.6%, 4.4%, respectively. The water quality in the Kaoping river most strongly determined that in the Tapeng Lagoon the best is. And disassembling the oyster frames and fishery boxes improves the water quality markedly. However, environmental topographic conditions indicate that strengthening stream pollution prevention and to constructing another entrance to the ocean are the best approaches for improving the quality of water in Tapeng Lagoon, especially by reducing eutrophication. These approaches and results yield useful information concerning habitat recovery and water resource management.     

饮用水消毒副产物--卤乙酸的检测

卤乙酸是饮用水氯化消毒中一类主要的消毒副产物,由于存在的广泛性和潜在的健康危害,许多国家和卫生组织相继将其列为饮用水常规监测项目,而我国至今还没有相关规定;为了更好地控制饮用水中卤乙酸的形成,世界各国科研人员先后研究和开发出了性能逐趋完善的多种分析检测方法;本文在国内外文献调研的基础上,对卤乙酸的各种分析检测方法进行了简要的介绍,并指明了今后的发展方向.     

滇池蓝藻水华监测预警平台设计

传统的人工监测无法实现大规模蓝藻的实时监测预警,该研究运用基于Python的ArcGIS Server自动发布地图服务、多元数据预警分析、人工水质监测数据预警分析等技术,以滇池为研究区,构建了水华预警系统.通过预警体系业务子系统和预警信息共享与发布子系统,结合滇池蓝藻水华监测预警综合数据库,实现了大规模蓝藻预警信息的实...