SPATIAL ANALYSIS FOR MONTHLY RAINFALL IN SOUTH FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: Several methods have been developed to interpolate point rainfall data and integrate areal rainfall data from any network of stations. From previous studies, it can be concluded that models for spatial analysis of rainfall are dependent on topography, area of analysis, type of rainfall, and density of gauging network. The purpose of this study is to evaluate a set of six appropriate models for point and areal rainfall estimations over a 4000 square mile area in South Florida. In this study, a case of developing spatial continuity model for monthly rainfall from a database that had various lengths of records and missing data is documented. The spatial correlation and variogram models for monthly rainfall were developed. Six methods of spatial interpolation were applied and the results validated with historical observations. The results of the study indicate that the multiquadric, kriging, and optimal interpolation schemes are the best three methods for interpolation of monthly rainfall within the study area. The optimal and kriging methods have the advantage of providing estimates of the error of interpolation. The optimal interpolation method uses the spatial correlation function and the kriging method uses the variogram function. The two spatial functions are related. Either of the two methods provide good estimates of monthly point and areal rainfall in the study area.     

COMPARING SOME METHODS OF ESTIMATING MEAN AREAL RAINFALL1

ABSTRACT: A comparison of 13 different methods of estimating mean areal rainfall was made on two areas in New Mexico, U.S.A., and one area in Great Britain. Daily, monthly and yearly rainfall data were utilized. All methods, in general, yielded comparable estimates, especially for yearly values. This suggested that a simpler method would be preferable for estimating mean areal rainfall in these areas.     

PREDICTING MEASUREMENT ERROR OF AREAL MEAN PRECIPITATION DURING EXTREME EVENTS1

ABSTRACT: The areal mean precipitation (AMP) over a catchment is normally calculated using point measurements at rainfall gages. Error in AMP estimates occurs when an insufficient number of gages are used to sample precipitation which is highly variable in space. AMP error is investigated using historic, severe rainfalls with a set of hypothetical catchments and raingage networks. The potential magnitude of error is estimated for typical gage network densities and arrangements. Possible sources of error are evaluated, and a method is proposed for predicting the magnitude of error using data that are commonly available for severe, historic rainfall.     

RAINGAGE NETWORK DESIGN USING NEXRAD PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES1

ABSTRACT: A general framework is proposed for using precipitation estimates from NEXRAD weather radars in raingage network design. NEXRAD precipitation products are used to represent space time rainfall fields, which can be sampled by hypothetical raingage networks. A stochastic model is used to simulate gage observations based on the areal average precipitation for radar grid cells. The stochastic model accounts for subgrid variability of precipitation within the cell and gage measurement errors. The approach is ideally suited to raingage network design in regions with strong climatic variations in rainfall where conventional methods are sometimes lacking. A case study example involving the estimation of areal average precipitation for catchments in the Catskill Mountains illustrates the approach. The case study shows how the simulation approach can be used to quantify the effects of gage density, basin size, spatial variation of precipitation, and gage measurement error, on network estimates of areal average precipitation. Although the quality of NEXRAD precipitation products imposes limitations on their use in network design, weather radars can provide valuable information for empirical assessment of rain‐gage network estimation errors. Still, the biggest challenge in quantifying estimation errors is understanding subgrid spatial variability. The results from the case study show that the spatial correlation of precipitation at subgrid scales (4 km and less) is difficult to quantify, especially for short sampling durations. Network estimation errors for hourly precipitation are extremely sensitive to the uncertainty in subgrid spatial variability, although for storm total accumulation, they are much less sensitive.     

CHARACTERISTICS AND CONTRIBUTING CAUSES OF AN ABNORMAL FREQUENCY OF FLOOD-PRODUCING RAINSTORMS AT CHICAGO1

ABSTRACT: Major hydrometeorological factors pertinent to defining and understanding the hydrologic characteristics of urban and other small-basin storms were investigated using data from a continuous 44-year operation of a recording raingage network in Chicago. Factors included: the frequency distribution of basin mean rainfall and its relation to storm maximum precipitation; the spatial distribution characteristics of each storm, including storm rainfall reduction factors which are widely used in hydrologic design problems; and weather-related causes related to the frequency and intensity of severe rainstorms in the Chicago area in recent years. Results have indicated that urban mean rainfall frequencies were overestimated in earlier studies in which they were derived from point/areal mean rainfall ratios obtained from much shorter records on rural networks. Reduction factors were found to vary between urban and rural storm systems due to urban-related effects. Two factors were found to be potential contributors to the characteristics of severe rainstorm occurrences at Chicago. These include urban-induced rain enhancement and an upward climatic trend in the occurrence of heavy rainfall events during the sampling period. Study results should be generally applicable to other large urban areas in the Midwest and other regions of similar precipitation climate.     

耕作措施对土壤入渗产流影响的实验研究

采用人工模拟降雨和室内分析相结合的方法,研究了黄土区不同耕作措施对降雨入渗的影响。结果表明：①不同耕作管理措施对降雨入渗的影响效用不同,在相同雨强和坡度下,降雨入渗速率表现为：耙耱地〉人工掏挖〉直线坡,在中小雨强和较短滞后情况下,这种情况表现更为显著;②不同耕作管理措施对降雨产流的影响效用不同,在相同雨强和坡度下,产流滞后表现为：耙耱地〉人工掏挖〉直线坡,在中小雨强和较短滞后情况下,这种情况表现更为显著;③根据水量平衡原理,得出了不同耕作管理措施不同坡度下入渗及产流滞后随雨强的变化关系式。上述结果为黄土高原坡耕地水土流失的治理和管理,提供了一定的理论依据。     

SPACE-TIME VALIDATION OF A THUNDERSTORM RAINFALL MODEL1

A probability model for predicting the occurrence and magnitude of thunderstorm rainfall developed in the southwestern United States was tested in the metropolitan Chicago area with reasonable success, especially for the moderate to the extreme runoff-producing events. The model requires the estimation of two parameters, the mean number of events per year and the conditional probability of rain given that an event has occurred. To tie in the data from more than one gage in an area, an event can be defined in several ways, such as the areal mean rainfall exceeding 0.50 inch and at least one gage receiving more than 1.0 inch. This type of definition allows both of the model parameters to be obtained from daily warm-season rainfall records. Regardless of the definition used a Poisson distribution adequately described the number of events per season. A negative binomial distribution was derived as representing the frequency density function for rainfall where several gages are employed in defining a storm. Chicago data fit both distributions very well at events with relatively high return periods. The results indicate the possibility of using the model on a regional basis where limited amount of data may be used to estimate parameters for extensive areas.     

A PRECIPITATION ESTIMATION TECHNIQUE FOR DEVELOPING ISOHYETS IN AN ARID AREA USING VEGETATION AND TOPOGRAPHIC PARAMETERS1

A technique is presented for developing an isohyet map for the Hualapai Valley, a closed hydrologic basin of about 315 square miles in the northwestern Great Basin in Nevada. In this basin there is practically no climatic data, and in the northwest Great Basin there are too few stations for determination of rainfall on a detailed basis. Using a vegetational typing to represent a range in elevation and precipitation, an initial mean annual rainfall is determined for selected points on a grid pattern. This rainfall is then modified by using topographic parameters of slope, orientation, exposure, and rainfall shadow effect. The resulting point determinations of mean annual rainfall are then smoothed using a trend surface analysis, and an isohyetal map is drawn from the smoothed points. The technique provides an estimated accuracy of one inch of mean annual precipitation and one mile of resolution on isohyets.     

Trends in Vegetation Degradation in Relation to Land Tenure, Rainfall, and Population Changes in Peddie District, Eastern Cape, South Africa

Spatial and temporal variations in vegetation are examined in relation to land tenure, population increase, and rainfall variation in a part of Peddie district, Eastern Cape. Sequential aerial photographs between 1938 and 1988 are analyzed to determine trends in vegetation and population change in three different land-tenure units. The areal extent at each date of four distinct vegetation categories is determined using PC ARC/INFO GIS. Long-term annual rainfall trends for the area are analyzed and juxtaposed with vegetation changes. Extensive ground-truthing exercises are carried out to verify the present condition of vegetation condition in terms of cover and species composition. Differences in land-tenure systems are discerned as the dominant factor controlling variations in vegetation degradation. The study also reveals that neither population changes nor rainfall variations can explain the observed trends in vegetation degradation. Earlier injudicious land-use practices, sustained since the turn of the last century, may provide plausible explanations for the trends and present status of vegetation degradation in the area.     

A NOTE ON AREAL RAINFALL DEFINITION

A discussion is presented of the likely sources of error in defining areal rainfall on a storm basis. These include the instrumental error, sampling fluctuations over the area, and network density. The analysis of dense raingage data provides some perspective of the magnitude of the errors that might be encountered from the natural variability of rainfall. Except for one watershed in Arizona, the coefficient of variation, based on a sample of storm totals from the individual gages in various size areas, remains relatively constant with increasing area for a particular storm. The error due to rainfall variability over the area is probably the most important and must be considered in experiments which attempt to resolve small-area hydrologic problems.     

WATER BUDGET ANALYSIS FOR THE EVERGLADES AGRICULTURAL AREA DRAINAGE BASIN1

ABSTRACT: Water budget studies are essential for water resources and environmental management. In this study, a water budget analysis is presented for the Everglades Agricultural Area (EAA) in South Florida for the period from 1973 to 1991. The EAA is a highly productive irrigation/drainage basin that has a high water table and organic soils. Water quality problems are associated with the drainage discharge from the basin. During dry periods, supplemental water is used for irrigation and in rainy periods excess water with relatively higher phosphorus content is pumped out of the basin to Lake Okeechobee and the Everglades ecosystem. Elevated concentrations of phosphorus in the runoff/drainage that is discharged from the EAA basin have created water quality problems. The mean surface water inflow to the basin was 63,990 ha-m, and the outflow was 131,447 ha-m per year. On the average, supplemental surface water use was 47,411 ha-m, and runoff/drainage was 114,816 ha-m per year. The mean annual basin rainfall was 120.9 cm. A general trend in the decline of the wet season rainfall is observed.     

A QUASI-LINEAR SPATIALLY DISTRIBUTED CELL MODEL FOR THE SURFACE RUNOFF SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: The paper presents a spatially distributed model consisting of cells that are interconnected in a pattern similar to the major drainage network of the watershed. Each cell receives as input the rainfall excess for the area represented by the cell as well as inflows from cells located upstream. Outflow from the cell is derived by routing the total input through the cell assuming it to be a linear reservoir during the storm. The time constant of the cells is however allowed to vary from storm to storm so that the model may be described as a quasi-linear model. The model was tested with rainfall excess and direct surface runoff data available for a medium size watershed with satisfactory results. The time constant was found to be related to the rainfall excess of the storms studied, its value decreasing with the increase in the total rainfall excess.     

UNIT HYDROGRAPHS – A COMPARATIVE STUDY1

ABSTRACT. Unit hydrographs derived by using two methods, linear programming and least squares, are compared. Test data comprise rainfall and runoff information from four storms over the North Branch Potomac River near Cumberland, Maryland. The mathematical bases of these methods for unit-hydrograph derivation are explained. The linear programming method minimizes the sum of absolute deviations, and the least squares method minimizes the sum of the squares of deviations. Computer subroutines are readily available for application of these methods. The unit hydrographs derived with the two methods are practically the same for storms 2 and 3, but differ somewhat for storms 1 and 4. However, the reconstituted direct surface runoff hydrographs are similar to those observed with the exception of the hydrograph for storm 4 which had a relatively more non-uniform rainfall excess of a considerably larger duration.     

DETERMINING SIGNIFICANCE AND PRECISION OF ESTIMATED PARAMETERS FOR RUNOFF FROM SEMIARID WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT Significant parameters for predicting thunderstorm runoff from small semiarid watersheds are determined using data from the Walnut Gulch watershed in southern Arizona. Based on these data, thunderstorm rainfall is dominant over watershed parameters for predicting runoff from multiple linear regression equations. In some cases antecedent moisture added significantly to the models. A technique is developed for estimating precision of predicted values from multiple linear regression equations. The technique involves matrix methods in estimating the variance of mean predicted values from a regression equation. The estimated variance of the mean predicted value is then used to estimate the variance of an individual predicted value. A computer program is developed to implement these matrix methods and to form confidence limits on predicted values based on both a normality assumption and the Chebyshev inequality.     

ASSESSMENT OF POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN AN URBAN CATCHMENT1

ABSTRACT: Stationarity of rainfall statistical parameters is a fundamental assumption in hydraulic infrastructure design that may not be valid in an era of changing climate. This study develops a framework for examining the potential impacts of future increases in short duration rainfall intensity on urban infrastructure and natural ecosystems of small watersheds and demonstrates this approach for the Mission/Wagg Creek watershed in British Columbia, Canada. Nonstationarities in rainfall records are first analyzed with linear regression analysis, and the detected trends are extrapolated to build potential future rainfall scenarios. The Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is used to analyze the effects of increased rainfall intensity on design peak flows and to assess future drainage infrastructure capacity according to the derived scenarios. While the framework provided herein may be modified for cases in which more complex distributions for rainfall intensity are needed and more sophisticated stormwater management models are available, linear regressions and SWMM are commonly used in practice and are applicable for the Mission/Wagg Creek watershed. Potential future impacts on stream health are assessed using methods based on equivalent total impervious area. In terms of impacts on the drainage infrastructure, the results of this study indicate that increases in short duration rainfall intensity may be expected in the future but that they would not create severe impacts in the Mission/Wagg Creek system. The equivalent levels of imperviousness, however, suggest that the impacts on stream health could be far more damaging.     

Relationships between soil and runoff phosphorus in small Alberta watersheds

Field-scale relationships between soil test phosphorus (STP) and flow-weighted mean concentrations (FWMCs) of dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) and total phosphorus (TP) in runoff are essential for modeling phosphorus losses, but are lacking. The objectives of this study were (i) to determine the relationships between soil phosphorus (STP and degree of phosphorus saturation (DPS)) and runoff phosphorus (TP and DRP) from field-sized catchments under spring snowmelt and summer rainfall conditions, and (ii) to determine whether a variety of depths and spatial representations of STP improved the prediction of phosphorus losses. Runoff was monitored from eight field-scale microwatersheds (2 to 248 ha) for 3 yr. Soil test phosphorus was determined for three layers (0 to 2.5 cm, 0 to 5 cm, and 0 to 15 cm) in spring and fall and the DPS was determined for the surface layer. Average STP (0 to 15 cm) ranged from 3 to 512 mg kg(-1), and DPS (0 to 2.5 cm) ranged from 5 to 91%. Seasonal FWMCs ranged from 0.01 to 7.4 mg L(-1) DRP and from 0.1 to 8.0 mg L(-1) TP. Strong linear relationships (r2=0.87 to 0.89) were found between the site mean STP and the FWMCs of DRP and TP. The relationships had similar extraction coefficients, intercepts, and predictive power among all three soil layers. Extraction coefficients (0.013 to 0.014) were similar to those reported for other Alberta studies, but were greater than those reported for rainfall simulation studies. The curvilinear DPS relationship showed similar predictive ability to STP. The field-scale STP relationships derived from natural conditions in this study should provide the basis for modeling phosphorus in Alberta.     

TWO PRACTICAL APPROACHES FOR DETERMINING THE CONFIDENCE INTERVAL OF RAINFALL DEPTH PERCENTILES1

ABSTRACT: A simple simulation type approach and a statistical method are proposed for determining the confidence interval of the T‐year frequency rainfall percentiles (or precipitation extremes) for generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions. The former method is based on the Monte Carlo testing procedure. To generate realizations, the covariance structure of the three parameters of GEV is investigated using an observed information matrix of the likelihood function. For distributions with realistic parameters, the correlation between the location and the scale parameters is practically constant when the shape parameter varies around values close to its optimal value. The latter method is based on likelihood ratio statistics. In the case where the joint confidence surface for shape parameters and estimates is plotted with lines of best estimates, the region where the estimated best percentile value can be chosen as a possible estimate is part of the joint confidence surface. The projection of this bounded region on axis of percentile is defined as the effective confidence interval in this research. The use of this effective interval as the confidence interval of the percentile of T‐year frequency rainfall is particularly recommended because it is stable for T and it reflects variations in all three parameters of GEV appropriately.     

Reclaimed Mineland Curve Number Response to Temporal Distribution of Rainfall1

Warner, Richard C., Carmen T. Agouridis, Page T. Vingralek, and Alex W. Fogle, 2010. Reclaimed Mineland Curve Number Response to Temporal Distribution of Rainfall. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(4): 724-732. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00444.x Abstract: The curve number (CN) method is a common technique to estimate runoff volume, and it is widely used in coal mining operations such as those in the Appalachian region of Kentucky. However, very little CN data are available for watersheds disturbed by surface mining and then reclaimed using traditional techniques. Furthermore, as the CN method does not readily account for variations in infiltration rates due to varying rainfall distributions, the selection of a single CN value to encompass all temporal rainfall distributions could lead engineers to substantially under- or over-size water detention structures used in mining operations or other land uses such as development. Using rainfall and runoff data from a surface coal mine located in the Cumberland Plateau of eastern Kentucky, CNs were computed for conventionally reclaimed lands. The effects of temporal rainfall distributions on CNs was also examined by classifying storms as intense, steady, multi-interval intense, or multi-interval steady. Results indicate that CNs for such reclaimed lands ranged from 62 to 94 with a mean value of 85. Temporal rainfall distributions were also shown to significantly affect CN values with intense storms having significantly higher CNs than multi-interval storms. These results indicate that a period of recovery is present between rainfall bursts of a multi-interval storm that allows depressional storage and infiltration rates to rebound.     

Modeling the Effect of Summertime Heating on Urban Runoff Temperature1

Abstract: The summertime heating of runoff in urban areas is recognized as a common and consistent urban climatological phenomenon. In this study, a simple thermal urban runoff model (TURM) is presented for the net energy flux at the impervious surfaces of urban areas to account for the heat transferred to runoff. The first step in developing TURM consists of calculating the various factors that control how urban impervious areas absorb heat and transfer it to moving water on the surface. The runoff temperature is determined based on the interactions of the physical characteristics of the impervious areas, the weather, and the heat transfer between the moving film of runoff and the impervious surface common in urban areas. Key surface and weather factors that affect runoff temperature predictions are type of impervious surface, air temperature, humidity, solar radiation before and during rain, rainfall intensity, and rainfall temperature. Runoff from pervious areas is considered separately and estimated using the Green‐Ampt Mein‐Larson rainfall excess method. Pervious runoff temperature is estimated as the rainfall temperature. Field measurements indicate that wet bulb temperature can be used as a surrogate for rainfall temperature and that runoff temperatures from sod average just 2°C higher than rainfall temperatures. Differences between measured and predicted impervious runoff temperature average approximately 2°C, indicating that TURM is a useful tool for determining runoff temperatures for typical urban areas.     

A first alternative for estimating the physical carrying capacities of natural areas for recreation

Utilizing an adaptation of the Universal Soil Loss Equation, this article discusses a method for approximating the physical carrying capacity of natural areas for outdoor recreation. Classification of forested woodland and field environments is based upon the conversion of ground cover coefficients to the percentage of ground cover required to maintain soil productivity over time. Four canopy types, three canopy densities, and two general types of ground cover are recognized in the equation as well as soil characteristics, topographical variations, and rainfall velocities and intensities. The method requires that the areal distribution of soils occurring within natural areas be mapped. Approximations will vary according to the intensity of the planning desired, and may range from a general classification of large land areas to highly site-specific evaluations. Data generated from over 40 years of cooperative research form the basis for classifying natural areas according to their relative physical capacities to accommodate outdoor recreation.