Can further mitigation of ammonia emissions reduce exceedances of particulate matter air quality standards?

Several studies point out the importance of agricultural emissions to particulate matter (PM) concentrations, and particularly of NH₃ emissions to PM_2.5. Our study used three different chemical transport models (CHIMERE, EMEP and LOTOS-EUROS) to quantify the reductions of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ concentrations due to reductions of NH₃ emissions beyond the Gothenburg Protocol (GP), as well as due to the GP alone compared to 2009. Simulations of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ concentrations using 2009 meteorology were undertaken for five emission scenarios: 2009 emissions (as the reference simulation), GP emissions in 2020, and further 10%, 20% and 30% NH₃ emission reductions in EU27 beyond the GP. The modelling results for the scenarios with further 10%, 20% and 30% NH₃ agriculture emission reductions in EU27 beyond the GP show that the reduction achieved in PM concentrations is not linear with the emission reductions. In fact, the results from the study show that the impact of ammonia emissions reduction is significantly more efficient when the emission reduction rises. Moreover, based on the evaluation on 2009, the modelling study shows that the expected impact of ammonia emissions on the formation of particulate ammonium was underestimated by all models. This would imply that the role of ammonia on PM concentration and exceedances of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ limit values is likely to be even larger than quantified in this study. This study shows that the implementation of the emission reductions imposed by the revised GP for 2020 will not suffice to achieve compliance with PM limit values everywhere in Europe; hence further European and local measures may be considered. NH₃ emissions from agriculture can be further reduced with the implementation of proven and feasible measures (substitution of fertilizers, improved storage of manure, way fertilizer injections, etc., …), in order to reduce PM concentrations and their impacts on human health across Europe.