The Polluter-Pays Principle and its Environmental Consequences for Industrial Waste Management

The paper maintains that, as a means toward achieving the ideal of a sustainable development, industrial waste should best be regarded in business-economic terms as having the same basic status as regular products. It is shown how an approach to proportioning industrial costs to waste that is described can be applied to the Polluter-Pays Principle in a way incorporating this principle into a company's internal estimation system. In two case studies presented, use of this approach is found to generate a waste-reducing incentive through showing waste to have a negative impact on estimates of profit.     

Estimation of the nutrient inputs into river systems – experiences from German rivers

The nutrient discharges from point and diffuse sources in more than 200 German river basins were estimated for the periods 1983–1987 and 1993–1997 employing the MONERIS model. This model distinguishes between six diffuse pathways and point source emissions from waste water treatment plants and direct industrial discharges. It was estimated that the total nitrogen input into the German river systems amounts to about 819,000 t N year^–1 in the period 1993 to 1997. These emissions have decreased since the mid-eighties by about 266,000 t N year^–1, mainly caused by the reduction of point discharges. For phosphorus the emissions have been reduced by 56,290 t P year^–1 and amount to 37,250 t P year^–1 in the period 1993–1997. Based on emission data a retention module estimates riverine nutrient loads. The comparison of the model output with the observed loads shows a deviation as low as 30% and 50% for nitrogen and phosphorus, respectively. The regional resolution of the model indicates the relative importance of different pathways for phosphorus and nitrogen input into river systems. Electronic Publication     

An economic theory of reuse

An economic model of reuse is developed to analyse the effect of reuse activity on the amount of waste in the economy and the welfare of consumers. The paper adapts the theory of durable goods and second-hand markets. There is only one type of good, a durable good, which last two periods. A durable good is called ‘new’ in the first period and ‘used’ in the second period. Following Kim (Int Econ J 3:53–63, 1989), it is assumed that consumers differ in valuing the service rate of used goods. Their valuations are represented by a parameter θ, with a higher θ denoting consumers with a greater willingness to pay. In this study, high-θ consumers are referred to as reuse-friendly consumers. The new durable good is supplied in a competitive market. After the purchaser has used the good for one period, (s)he can sell it, keep it or throw it away. If a consumer decides to enter the second-hand market, (s)he has to pay a transaction cost. In equilibrium, the price of used goods will be determined endogenously by a second-hand market; it depends on the value of transaction costs. Thus, whether the second-hand market exists or not also depends on the value of transaction costs. It is shown that the amount of durable goods that is wasted is minimal when a second-hand market exists. When a second-hand market does not exist, increase in reuse-friendly consumers leads to decrease in the amount of waste. In the case of the second-hand market, when many consumers begin to reuse, the welfare of consumers who do not buy used goods will be improved.     

Global estimates of soil carbon sequestration via livestock waste: a STELLA simulation

It has become increasingly well documented that human activities are enhancing the greenhouse effect and altering the global climate. Identifying strategies to mitigate atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions on the national level are therefore critical. Fossil fuel combustion is primarily responsible for the perturbation of the global carbon cycle, although the influence of humans extends far beyond the combustion of fossil fuels. Changes in land use arising from human activities contribute substantially to atmospheric carbon dioxide; however, land use changes can act as a carbon dioxide sink as well. A soil carbon model was built using STELLA to explore how soil organic carbon sequestration (SOC) varies over a range of values for key parameters and to estimate the amount of global soil carbon sequestration from livestock waste. To obtain soil carbon sequestration estimates, model simulations occurred for 11 different livestock types and with data for eight regions around the world. The model predicted that between 1980 and 1995, United States soils were responsible for the sequestration of 444–602 Tg C from livestock waste. Model simulations further predicted that during the same period, global soil carbon sequestration from livestock waste was 2,810–4,218 Tg C. Our estimates for global SOC sequestration are modest in proportion to other terrestrial carbon sinks (i.e. forest regrowth); however, livestock waste does represent a potential for long-term soil carbon gain. SOC generated from livestock waste is another example of how human activities and land use changes are altering soil processes around the world. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Non-timber forest product dependency in the Central Himalayan foot hills

Rural households throughout the Himalayas are regarded as dependent on non-timber forest products (NTFPs), but very few studies have quantified this dependency. This case study, undertaken in two villages in the Central Himalayan foot hills in Nepal, documents the absolute and relative importance of commercial NTFPs to rural household economies. Data were collected in a one-year period and included interviews with 250 households using a semi-structured questionnaire and monthly interviews with four sub-local NTFP traders, two local traders and two central wholesalers. The conservative estimate of NTFP-derived cash income showed this to be a cornerstone in poorer household livelihood strategies and thus in poverty prevention. An annual average of 578 kg of commercial NTFPs was collected in the wild per household, providing poorer households with a cash income share of 44–78%. Better off households are not NTFP dependent but rely on income from crop production and livestock. Based on a net marketing margin analysis, showing that harvesters capture a large share of the Indian wholesaler price, it is argued that there is scope for pursuing NTFP-based strategies for poverty reduction through leasehold forestry and agroforestry. Both these options are compatible with conserving forest cover and forest corridor functions and may thus present a win–win scenario for livelihood improvement and conservation.     

Experiences from phasing out the use of mercury in Sweden

The Swedish parliament has decided that the use of mercury (Hg) in society should be phased out by the target year 2000 and substituted with alternative, less harmful elements or compounds. This is to reduce exposure to the toxic heavy metal, levels of which have increased two to seven times in the Swedish environment during the last century. Mercury in products and goods in use in Sweden has been estimated at 100 tonnes Hg, which will slowly be released into the environment if no preventative measures are taken. To avoid handing over unsolved environmental problems and connected costs to future generations, the Swedish government commissioned the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to improve the efficiency of Hg collection and to find a solution for terminal storage of the waste. The result is that the Swedish EPA considers deep storage in rock, accompanied by technical measures to further reduce the risk of future Hg emissions to be the safest method. It has funded approximately 50 projects with the goal of spreading information about the Hg problem and removing Hg from society. The projects have focused on areas where there is a great risk of Hg in products and goods entering the environment. About 6 tonnes Hg has so far been collected in these projects – end of 1999 – and the cost of the Hg collected has varied between 70 and 1300 US$ kg^–1 Hg. The projects were more cost-effective than traditional inspection by an official due to local participation, use of Hg-tracker dogs, and employment of professional electricians in the search for Hg. The involvement of school children and the public has resulted in an increased awareness of environmental matters, and, together with the emptying of water seals, reduced Hg levels in municipal sewage sludge. Electronic Publication     

Optimum Supportable Global Population: Water Accounting and Dietary Considerations

In this paper we develop a novel, comprehensive method for estimating the global human carrying capacity in reference to food production factors and levels of food consumption. Other important interrelated dimensions of carrying capacity such as energy, non-renewable resources, and ecology are not considered here and offer opportunities for future work. Use of grain production (rain-fed/irrigated), animal product production (grazing/factory farm), diet pattern (grain/animal products), and a novel water accounting method (demand/supply) based on actual water consumption and not on withdrawal, help resolve uncertainties to find better estimates. Current Western European food consumption is used as a goal for the entire world. Then the carrying capacity lies in the range of 4.5–4.7 billion but requiring agricultural water use increase by 450–530% to 4725–5480 km³, the range based on different estimates of available water. The cost of trapping and conveying such water, will run 4.5–13.5 trillion over 50 years requiring an annual spending increase of 150–400%, straining the developing world where most of the population increase is expected. We reconfirm estimates in the literature using a dynamic model. ‘Corner scenarios’ with extreme optimistic assumptions were analyzed using the reasoning support software system GLOBESIGHT. With a hypothetical scenario with a mainly vegetarian diet (grazing only with 5% animal product), the carrying capacity can be as high as 14 billion. Ecological deterioration that surely accompanies such a population increase would negatively impact sustainable population. Using our approach the impact of ecological damage could be studied. Inter- and intra-regional inequities are other considerations that need to be studied.     

Scenarios of the old industrial regions’ development: selecting the methodology

Management of the old industrial regions’ development is a very actual problem, in particular for the post-Soviet countries. It is connected with the fact that the purposes of manufacture modernization which provide employment and incomes of the population of such regions, can contradict requirements of environmental protection. Here the most different scenarios of development are possible which need to be evaluated. Usual neoclassical criteria for this purpose do not match. Therefore, in our paper, there was a task to develop such criterion which can be used for regulation of the old industrial regions’ development taking into account the environmental factor. The paper begins with construction of regional economy model. Our model based on the J. Forrester's “world model” idea, i.e. it considers the influence of environmental pollution (atmosphere, water, earth) on the population disease level, and then—on the lifetime and the human capital; the latter ones are considered as one of the most important factors of the economic growth. On the ground of this model, the consequences for realization of different scenarios of the regional economy development are estimated. To substantiate the regulation of regional economy, the criterion of sustainable development, based on the idea of simultaneous improvement of economic and ecological parameters, is offered. The main feature of the criterion offered is that, first of all, it guarantees simultaneous improvement of each of the chosen indicators of the region’s development, and, second, allows considering interests of various coalition groups by finding realistic compromises at a choice of ways of old industrial regions’ development.     

产业生态化水平的测度及其影响因素研究

近年来,产业生态化转型发展成为一个重要的热点问题。构建产业生态化水平评价指标体系,运用因子分析法对我国各省(直辖市、自治区)的产业生态化水平进行测度,并对此进行静态和动态分析,最后运用断尾回归方法找出影响我国产业生态化水平的主要因素。实证结果表明:我国产业生态化水平可以划分为领先区、发达区、中等区和落后区4大类型,各省区产业生态化水平虽都有所提高,但差距显著,影响产业生态化水平的主要因素有人均GDP、产业结构、环境污染治理投资额、RD经费投入、工业固体废物产生量以及工业固体废物综合利用率。据此从产业系统内部和外部两个方面提出加快产业生态化转型发展的对策建议。     

工业废水排放的影响因素量化分析

工业废水排放量的大小受工业发展水平、产业结构、产品结构、技术工艺及设备水平、管理政策、环境法规等多因素的综合影响。选取长江三角洲典型地区的主要污染排放指标,重点分析工业经济规模、工业行业结构、工业技术进步以及环境治理投资等因素与工业水污染排放之间的相互关系。研究结果表明：随着长江三角洲地区产业结构的调整、工业技术进步、工业废水达标排放政策的实施,工业规模的扩大并没有引起工业废水的显著增加。从制造业结构看,有些行业的废水排放量对其结构调整比较敏感; 相反,有些行业的废水排放量对其结构的调整不敏感。工业技术进步和环境治理投资与工业废水排放量呈现负相关,说明工业技术进步、环境污染治理对于减少工业水污染排放起重要作用。     

Prognosis of the spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystems by means of universal kriging

The use of quantitative data for constructing prognostic maps of the dynamics of ecosystem degradation and restoration by nonlinear simulation methods is a topical field of landscape ecology. This method of dynamic cartography is based on fiberwise comparison of data on the state of Chernye Zemli (the Kalmyk Republic, Russia) in different years and the detailed analysis of the period on which the prognosis was based. For this purpose, materials of repeated aerial and satellite photography obtained during a long period (1954–1993) were used. Comparison of maps characterizing the dynamics of Chernye Zemli between 1958 and 1993 allows prognostic electronic maps for the next 10–15 years (with a five-year interval) to be drawn and land prognosis for the next 20–30 years (1998–2023) to be obtained. Deceased     

The impact of global warming on winter tourism and skiing: a regionalised model for Austrian snow conditions

Possible climate change will modify snow-cover depth and change the characteristics of winter tourism and skiing districts. Our model describes seasonal snow-cover depth related to altitude in six Alpine climate regions as the best fit of all snow stations. Data cover 30 winter seasons (November to April values) from 1965 to 1995. We modified the data according to a scenario of temperature and precipitation change (2 °C warming, no precipitation change) and achieve a new simulated snow-cover depth. The indicators MARP (mean altitude of resident population) and MASPSL (mean altitude of starting point of ski lifts) serve as references for “critical altitudes” of Austrian districts. A warming implies a reduction of snow in all districts, but the loss is overproportional in lower altitudes. The direction of economic impacts is clear – income losses and adaptation costs – but magnitude and time frames remain uncertain. Received: 24 February 1999 · Accepted: 15 May 1999     

中国环境污染密集型产业脱钩的异质性及产业转型

根据现有文献,研究中国的经济增长与环境污染的脱钩,需要将不同环境密集型产业与经济增长的关系分别测算,然后进行比较。本文选取了工业污染的三大来源——废水、废气和固体废物,每种污染源对应着一类环境密集型产业。这三种产业密集排放的污染物的量与经济增长之间的脱钩关系及其内在机制,这是本文研究的重点。本文借鉴Tapio弹性分析模型构建了我国经济增长与不同环境密集型产业之间的脱钩状态的分析模型,并对脱钩状态和程度的判定标准做了规定。随后,对2001-2009年四个时期的经济增长与不同环境密集型产业集中排放的污染物的量之间的脱钩指数进行了测算,同时测算了各产业污染的工业产值弹性及其工业产值的GDP弹性,并对脱钩状态和程度做了判定。结果表明:三类产业的脱钩程度各不相同,其动力机制与发展前景也有所不同,因而需要有针对性地采取规制和治理措施。     

A forecast analysis on world population and urbanization process

The continuous growth of world population and the intensification of urbanization process create a challenge to environment quality and sustainable development around the world. In this paper I tried to conduct a forecast analysis of near-future urbanization related population growth worldwide, based on recent demographic trends. Such an analysis can provide important insights into the prospects for changes in the size and composition of world population and in urbanization process. Optimal polynomial functions were used to fit historical trajectories of population dynamics, and the detailed forecasts of the population mainly over the period 2010–2030 were conducted and analyzed. If the past pattern continues, world total population would increase to 7.94–8.33 billion in 2030 and the annual growth is expected to continually decline in the forecast period. Global total population would stop increasing during the period 2050–2060 and would not exceed 9.5 billion in the future. The total population of Africa, Asia, Oceania, South America, North & Central America would separately increase to 1.35–1.41, 4.86–5.65, 0.04–0.05, 0.44–0.45, and 0.71–0.72 billion in 2030. Europe’s total population is forecast to decline to 0.64–0.67 billion in 2030. World’s rural population is expected to grow to the maximum during the period 2015–2020 and would greatly decline after that period. Global rural population would reach 3.12–3.41 billion in 2030. Rural population in Asia and Africa is estimated to increase and achieve the maximum around 2025 and decline thereafter. For other regions, the rural population would continually decline in the forecast period. Urban population in the world would continually grow and reach 4.72–5.00 billion in 2030, an increase of 48.6–57.8%. However the annual growth of urban population is expected to increase to the maximum (6.86 million/year) during the period 2020–2025 and then decline in the following years. Urban population is projected to continually grow in all regions excepting Europe. Europe’s urban population is expected to decline in the period 2010–2030. Urbanization process worldwide, represented by the ratio urban population versus total population (RUT) and the ratio rural population versus urban population, is expected to continue during the period 2010–2030. The RUT of the world is projected to reach 0.5 before 2010 and would continue to increase in the forecast period. Global RUT is estimated to reach 0.56 in 2030. However, the regional patterns of urbanization process would be diverse. Europe’s RUT is estimated to continually decline in the forecast period and reach 0.68 in 2030. The RUT for Africa and Caribbean would continually increase before 2030, while the RUTs for Asia and South America are estimated to achieve their maximums around 2025 and decline in the following years. Oceania and North & Central America would thoroughly realize urbanization (≈1) during the periods 2020–2025 and 2025–2030. The expansion of world population and urbanization will continually exert a stronger stress to environment quality and sustainable development in a near future. However we may expect this situation would start to change from mid-21st century after total population has achieved its maximum. Readers should send their comments on this paper to BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Development of an educational model for sustainability science: challenges in the Mind–Skills–Knowledge education at Ibaraki University

Modern society confronts multiple sustainability challenges, including population growth, resources limitations, and a deteriorating environment. As a response, sustainability science education plays a major role in developing human capacity to manage these issues. This paper proposes the concept of “sustainability science education across Mind–Skills–Knowledge” as well as the competencies to be acquired and its pedagogy. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of such an educational system and its method of implementation using the example of the Graduate Program on Sustainability Science (GPSS), which was started at Ibaraki University in 2009.     

Socioeconomic development and vulnerability to land degradation in Italy

In recent years, the surface area affected by land degradation (LD) has significantly increased in southern European regions where the socioeconomic development has been proposed as a basic factor underlying the degree of vulnerability to LD. This paper investigates the correlation between several socioeconomic indicators and the level of vulnerability to LD in Italy, expressed as changes (1990–2000) in a composite index of land vulnerability (ΔLVI). The analysis was carried out over 784 local districts. The impact of per capita value added, agricultural intensity, industrial and tourism concentration, and urban growth was separately tested on ΔLVI. Results indicate that a lower district value added, crop intensification, irrigation, and the level of land vulnerability to degradation are strongly associated with the increasing level of land vulnerability over time, highlighting the role of the socioeconomic development as a main process underlying LD. In this framework, spatially equitable sustainable development may represent the effective strategy to mitigate the detrimental effects of economic growth and regional disparities on Mediterranean LD.     

Industrial ecology: engineered representation of sustainability

Industrial ecology is a relatively new field of research and academic study and is well established in North America and in several Asian countries. However, it has not yet received the attention it deserves in some other important parts of the industrialized world, including Germany. This paper may contribute to a better appreciation of industrial ecology as a tool in the process of sustainable development of economies, social systems, and of aquatic and terrestrial biotopes under the pressure of rapidly changing conditions triggered by global warming and urban growth. For this reason, methods are needed to quantify the successful application of industrial ecology measures. The “Integrated Sustainability Triangle” is introduced as a promising new possibility of quantification and monitoring. It enables justification of the contributions industrial ecology can make to sustainable development. The aggregation of individual economic contributions is assumed to create an overall impetus to the entire industrial sector including the sector of environmental engineering. Thus, the potential of industrial ecology is discussed from the macro-economic and the engineering perspective using the concept of sustainable development as a guiding principle. But the authors come to the conclusion that finding solutions to the pressing problems of our time requires more than collaboration of economy and engineering. It requires joint efforts of the whole spectrum of scientific disciplines in close collaboration with industrial and political stakeholders.     

ECONOMIC GROWTH AND THE QUALITY OF THE ENVIRONMENT: TAKING STOCK

There is a long-standing debate on the relationship between economic development and environmental quality. From a sustainable development viewpoint there has been a growing concern that the economic expansion of the world economy will cause irreparable damage to our planet. In the last few years several studies have appeared dealing with the relationship between the scale of economic activity and the level of pollution. In particular, if we concentrate on local pollutants many empirical contributions have identified a bell-shaped curve linking per capita pollution to per capita GDP (in the case of global pollutants like CO₂ the evidence is less clear-cut). This behavior implies that, starting from low per capita income levels, per capita emissions or concentrations tend to increase but at a slower pace. After a certain level of income (which typically differs across pollutants) – the “turning point” – pollution starts to decline as income further increases. In analogy with the historical relationship between income distribution and income growth, the inverted-U relationship between per capita income and pollution has been termed “Environmental Kuznets Curve”. The purpose of this paper is not to provide an overview the literature: there are several survey papers around doing precisely that. We instead reconsider the explanations that have been put forth for its inverted-U pattern. We consider the literature from this perspective. In addition, without resorting to any econometric estimation, we consider whether simple data analysis can help to shed some light on the motives that can rationalize the Environmental Kuznets Curve. This paper is part of the research work being carried out by the Climate Change Modelling and Policy Unit at Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and has been prepared for the 2004–2005 ESRI Collaboration Project. The author is grateful to Nicola Cantore for skillful assistance.     

Migration and reclamation in Northeast China in response to climatic disasters in North China over the past 300?years

Climatic disaster-induced migration and its effects on land exploitation of new settlements is a crucial topic that needs to be researched to better understand the impact of climate change and human adaptation. This paper focuses on the process and mechanism of migrant–reclamation in Northeast China in response to climatic disasters over the past 300 years. The research used comparative analysis of key interlinked factors in this response involving drought/flood events, population, cropland area, farmer revolts, administrations establishment, and land reclamation policies. It draws the following conclusions: (1) seven peaks of migrants–reclamation in Northeast China were evident, most likely when frequent climatic disasters happened in North China, such as the drought–flood in 1851–1859, drought in 1875–1877, and drought 1927–1929; (2) six instances of policy transformation adopted to cope with extreme climatic events, including distinctive examples like changing to a firm policy prohibiting migration in 1740 and a subsequent lifting of that prohibition in 1860; and (3) the fast expansion of the northern agricultural boundary since the middle of the nineteenth century in this area benefited from a climate change trend from a cold period into a warm period. Altogether, over the past 300 years, extreme climatic disasters in North China have deepened the contradiction between the limited land resources and the rapidly increasing population and have resulted in migration and reclamation in Northeast China. Climate, policy, and reclamation constructed an organic chain of response that dominated the land use/cover change process of Northeast China.     

Modeling thermoelectric power generation in view of climate change

In this study we investigate how thermal power plants with once-through cooling could be affected by future climate change impacts on river water temperatures and stream flow. We introduce a model of a steam turbine power plant with once-through cooling at a river site and simulate how its production could be constrained in scenarios ranging from a one degree to a five degree increase of river temperature and a 10–50% decrease of stream flow. We apply the model to simulate a large nuclear power plant in Central Europe. We calculate annual average load reductions, which can be up to 11.8%, assuming unchanged stream flow, which leads to average annual income losses of up to 80 million €. Considering simultaneous changes in stream flow will exacerbate the problem and may increase average annual costs to 111 million € in a worst-case scenario. The model demonstrates that power generation could be severely constrained by typical climate impacts, such as increasing river temperatures and decreasing stream flow.