Heroism in a resource crisis: A simulation study

This study examined the effects of individual responsibility and communication in a simulated resource management problem. Subjects faced the problem of how to harvest resources from a regenerating pool so as to maximize their individual harvests without overexploiting the pool. One behavioral option open to individuals involved the sacrifice of a harvesting opportunity in order to add to the pool, thereby benefiting the rest of the group. A 2 x 2 factorial design was used to test the effect of this kind of heroism by (1) including a volunteer leader in the group and (2) including the possibility of communication. Results showed communication produced a significant increase in heroism and in group harvest, resulting from better management of the pool. The presence of a leader in a group had no overall effect on group performance. The implications of these findings for current resource management crises are discussed.     

Impacts of Human Behavioral Heterogeneity on the Benefits of Probabilistic Flood Warnings: An Agent‐Based Modeling Framework

Flood forecasts and warnings are intended to reduce flood‐related property damages and loss of human life. Considerable research has improved flood forecasting accuracy (e.g., more accurate prediction of the occurrence of flood events) and lead time. However, the delivery of improved forecast information alone is not necessarily sufficient to reduce flood damage and loss of life, as people have varying responses and reactions to flood warnings. This study develops an agent‐based modeling framework that evaluates the impacts of heterogeneity in human behaviors (i.e., variation in behaviors in response to flood warnings), as well as residential density, on the benefits of flood warnings. The framework is coupled with a traffic model to simulate evacuation processes within a road network under various flood warning scenarios. The results show the marginal benefit associated with providing better flood warnings is significantly constrained if people behave in a more risk‐tolerant manner, especially in high‐density residential areas. The results also show significant impacts of human behavioral heterogeneity on the benefits of flood warnings, and thus stress the importance of considering human behavioral heterogeneity in simulating flood warning‐response systems. Further study is suggested to more accurately model human responses and behavioral heterogeneity, as well as to include more attributes of residential areas to estimate and improve the benefits of flood warnings.     

闽南地区农村征地冲突的风险预警及防范对策--以福建省晋江市为例

借鉴社会冲突理论构建了农村征地冲突风险预警指标体系,并以闽南地区晋江市为案例区,运用模糊综合评价法分析了农村征地冲突风险警级水平及其产生机制。结果表明:闽南地区农村征地冲突风险水平整体处于中警级别,农村征地冲突风险警级水平与该区域的特征密切相关。基于研究结果,为有效防范闽南地区农村征地冲突风险,应从完善征地纠纷矛盾调解机制、尊重农户心理需求和文化认同、建立分级控制预警机制等方面制定风险防范对策。     

Official and folk flood warning systems: An assessment

Recent floods in West Bengal, India, focused public attention on the inadequacies of the flood warning system. This study examines some socioeconomic constraints on the communication of flood warning messages. It then looks at perceptions of, and responses by, villagers in a flood-prone region of West Bengal to official and folk flood warnings.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

Climatic hazards warning process in Bangladesh: Experience of,and lessons from,the 1991 April cyclone

Science and technology cannot control entirely the causes of natural hazards. However, by using multifaceted programs to modify the physical and human use systems, the potential losses from disasters can effectively be minized. Predicting, identifying, monitoring, and forecasting extreme meteorological events are the preliminary actions towards mitigating the cyclone-loss potential of coastal inhabitants, but without the successful dissemination of forecasts and relevant information, and without appropriate responses by the potential victims, the loss potential would probably remain the same. This study examines the process through which warning of the impending disastrous cyclone of April 1991 was received by the local communities and disseminated throughout the coastal regions of Bangladesh. It is found that identification of the threatening condition due to atmospheric disturbance, monitoring of the hazard event, and dissemination of the cyclone warning were each very successful. However, due to a number of socioeconomic and cognitive factors, the reactions and responses of coastal inhabitants to the warning were in general passive, resulting in a colossal loss, both at the individual and national level. The study recommends that the hazard mitigation policies should be integrated with national economic development plans and programs. Specifically, it is suggested that, in order to attain its goals, the cyclone warning system should regard the aspects of human response to warnings as a constituent part and accommodate human dimensions in its operational design.     

Implicit beliefs about self and nature: Evidence from an IAT game

Recent psychological research has examined the beliefs that individuals hold about their relationship with the natural world. This article builds on the previous literature on connectedness with nature and we introduce a new game version of the Implicit Association Test (IAT), known as FlexiTwins. The game is intended to facilitate research using the IAT and provides a flexible platform for measuring implicit associations. In this paper, we report three studies in which we use the game to measure self-nature associations. Study 1 reports the development and validation of FlexiTwins with a college sample. Study 2 further validates the game using a known-groups sample of environmental activists. Finally, Study 3 examines the implicit connectedness of a sample of 30 grade school children. Across all three studies, we find good evidence for reliability, as well as theoretically meaningful results.     

Off-road vehicle recreation management policy for public lands in the United States: A case history

Three annual motorcycle races on the Johnson Valley-Parker course in California's Mojave Desert have resulted in conspicuous modifications of soil and vegetation in a Wilderness Study Area (WSA) and in other lands of high resource values. The extent of damage caused by the races, which have involved fewer than 400 participants, exceeded the expectations of the managing agency by 360%–640% and the allowable limits imposed by the agency by 40%–76%. After three races, no resource monitoring results have been obtained by which compliance with the regulations for interim management of the Wilderness Study Area may be judged. Designation of the remaining parts of the course on lands of high resource value was based on criteria subsequently determined by a federal court to be in violation of regulations derived from two Executive Orders.     

Privileged Knowledge and Social Change: Effects on Different Participants of Using Geographic Information Systems Technology in Natural Resource Management

The use of geographic information systems (GIS) technology in natural resource management has expanded rapidly: It is the preferred tool of spatial data analysis addressing large landscapes and is typically the presentation medium for conveying landscape-scale scientific findings to all kinds of audiences. In a case study using the Coastal Landscape Analysis and Modeling Study in western Oregon, it was found that the use of GIS to analyze and display natural resource data in that project produced a variety of responses among different participants and participant groups. The findings offer insights into the workings of groups attempting public involvement in natural resource management.     

Applying exergy analysis to rainwater harvesting systems to assess resource efficiency

In our continued effort in reducing resource consumption, greener technologies such as rainwater harvesting could be very useful in diminishing our dependence on desalinated or treated water and the associated energy requirements. This paper applies exergy analysis and exergetic efficiency to evaluate the performance of eight different scenarios of urban rainwater harvesting systems in the Mediterranean-climate Metropolitan Area of Barcelona where water is a scarce resource. A life cycle approach is taken, where the production, use, and end-of-life stages of these rainwater harvesting systems are quantified in terms of energy and material requirements in order to produce 1 m³ of rainwater per year for laundry purposes. The results show that the highest exergy input is associated with the energy uses, namely the transport of the materials to construct the rainwater harvesting systems. The scenario with the highest exergetic efficiency considers a 24 household building with a 21 m³ rainwater storage tank installed below roof. Exergy requirements could be minimized by material substitution, minimizing weight or distance traveled.     

In-stand scenic beauty of variable retention harvests and mature forests in the U.S. Pacific Northwest: The effects of basal area, density, retention pattern and down wood

Tensions between amenity- and timber-based economies in the U.S. and Canadian Pacific Northwest motivated a study of scenic beauty inside mature forests and timber harvests. A diverse sample of regional forests, measures of forest structure, and large, representative samples of photographs and public judges were employed to measure scenic beauty inside un-harvested mature and old-growth forests, and timber harvests. The latter varied systematically in down wood levels and retention level and pattern. Scenic beauty tended to be optimized at a basal area of 110–155 m³/ha and/or 700–900 trees/ha. Older forests and those with larger trees were perceived to be more beautiful. In harvests, greater retention levels, less down wood, and dispersed rather than aggregated retention patterns contributed to aesthetic improvements. Green-tree retention harvests offer considerable potential gains in perceived scenic beauty compared to perceived very ugly clearcuts, particularly at higher retention levels. These gains are more reliable from dispersed retention patterns. The silvicultural parameters studied change strength in affecting scenic beauty with changes in retention level. These interactions are explored in relation to a range of scenic quality objectives as an aid to planners, visual impact analysts, and silviculturists.     

Assessing options for the development of surface water flood warning in England and Wales

This paper explores the technical options for warning of surface water flooding in England and Wales and presents the results of an Environment Agency funded project. Following the extensive surface water flooding experienced in summer 2007 a rainfall threshold-based Extreme Rainfall Alert (ERA) was piloted by the Met Office and Environment Agency providing initial steps towards the establishment of a warning for some types of surface water flooding. The findings of this paper are based primarily on feedback on technical options from a range of professionals involved in flood forecasting and warning and flood risk management, about the current alerts and about the potential options for developing a more targeted surface water flood warning service. Providing surface water flooding warnings presents a set of technical, forecasting and warning challenges related to the rapid onset of flooding, the localised nature of the flooding, and the linking of rainfall and flood forecasts to flood likelihood and impact on the ground. Some examples of rainfall alerting and surface water flood warning services from other countries are evaluated, as well as a small number of recently implemented local services in England and Wales. Various potential options for implementation of a service are then explored and assessed. The paper concludes that development of a surface water flood warning service for England and Wales is feasible and is likely to be useful to emergency responders and operational agencies, although developing such a service for the pluvial components of this type of flooding is likely to be feasible sooner than for other components of surface water flooding such as that caused by sewers. A targeted surface water flood warning service could be developed for professional emergency responders in the first instance rather than for the public for whom such a service without further operational testing and piloting would be premature.     

Effects of Information on the Social Acceptability of Alternatives to Clearfelling in Australian Wet Eucalypt Forests

The effects of viewing different types of information were investigated in people judging the social acceptability of alternative forest harvest systems. Approximately 500 Tasmanians were shown still-simulated images of four harvest systems (a clearfell system, two aggregated retention systems, and a selective system) and were asked to judge their acceptability. Individual interviews were conducted with 12 of the participants. It was anticipated that people holding different beliefs about the consequences of harvesting would have different responses to information. Cluster analysis was used to group participants according to these beliefs. Responses to still images were compared with responses to two other types of information: information about consequences of the harvest systems in the form of indicator symbols, and information about regeneration over time, presented as visual animations. The effects of information differed across both harvest system and belief cluster groups of participants. The largest effects of information occurred in people who held a mix of beliefs about consequences. Within this group, participants who viewed the indicators rated a 30% aggregated retention system higher and selective harvesting lower, than those who did not view the indicators. Viewing animated sequences led to slightly higher ratings of the more intensive harvest systems and significantly lower ratings of the selective harvest system than those based on the still images. The interview data provided examples of interviewees viewing information critically against their own values and beliefs. Only some interviewees appeared to use it in judging social acceptability     

Simulating Spatial and Temporal Context of Forest Management Using Hypothetical Landscapes

/ Spatially explicit models that combine remote sensing with geographic information systems (GIS) offer great promise to land managers because they consider the arrangement of landscape elements in time and space. Their visual and geographic nature facilitate the comparison of alternative landscape designs. Among various activities associated with forest management, none cause greater concern than the impacts of timber harvesting on the composition, structure, and function of landscape ecosystems. A timber harvest allocation model (HARVEST) was used to simulate different intensities of timber harvest on 23,592-ha hypothetical landscapes with varying sizes of timber production areas and different initial stand age distributions. Our objectives were to: (1) determine the relative effects of the size of timber production areas, harvest intensity, method used to extract timber, and past timber harvest activity on the production of forest interior and edge; and (2) evaluate how past management (in the form of different initial stand age distributions) constrains future timber production options. Our simulations indicated that the total area of forest interior and the amount of forest edge were primarily influenced by the intensity of timber harvest and the size of openings created by harvest. The size of the largest block of interior forest was influenced most by the size of timber harvests, but the intensity of harvest was also significant, and the size of nontimber production areas was important when harvests were numerous and widely dispersed within timber management areas, as is often the case in managed forests. Stand age-class distributions produced by past harvest activity limited the amount of timber production primarily when group selection was used, but also limited clear-cutting when recent harvest levels were high.KEY WORDS: Simulation modeling; Timber harvest; Historical context; Spatial context; Landscape pattern; Forest interior; Forest edge     

Collective guilt mediates the effect of beliefs about global warming on willingness to engage in mitigation behavior

The present research examines whether collective guilt for an ingroup's collective greenhouse gas emissions mediates the effects of beliefs about the causes and effects of global warming on willingness to engage in mitigation behavior. In Study 1, we manipulate the causes and effects of global warming and then measure collective guilt. Results demonstrate that collective guilt for Americans' greenhouse gas emissions is stronger when participants believe that global warming is caused by humans and will have minor effects. Study 2 employs the same manipulations and then measures collective guilt and collective anxiety, as well as willingness to conserve energy and pay green taxes. This study replicates the effect from Study 1 and rules out collective anxiety as a plausible alternative mediator. Collective guilt for Americans' greenhouse emissions was the only reliable mediator of the effect of beliefs about global warming on willingness to engage in mitigation behaviors. The importance of collective guilt as a tool for promoting global warming mitigation is discussed.     

AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR DROUGHT MANAGEMENT USING THE PALMER DROUGHT INDEX1

ABSTRACT: The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is used in a non-homogeneous Markov chain model to characterize the stochastic behavior of drought. Based on this characterization an early warning system in the form of a decision tree enumerating all possible sequences of drought progression is proposed for drought management. Besides yielding probabilities of occurrence of different drought severity classes, the method associates a secondary measure in terms of likely cumulative precipitation deficit to provide timely guidance in deciding drought mitigation actions. The proposed method is particularly useful for water availability task forces in various states for issuing drought warnings in advance. The applicability of the technique is illustrated for the Tidewater climatic division of Virginia.     

重庆灰霾治理试点工作中的政企动态博弈分析

针对重庆市挥发性有机物整治试点工作中面临的与企业博弈的实际问题,设定模型边界条件,建立基于完全信息的动态博弈分析模型,通过逆推归纳法分析博弈不同阶段下参与企业与政府的理性策略选择,求解此完全信息动态博弈模型的子博弈精炼纳什均衡并获得该情况下的博弈双方最终支付。研究表明,提高“许诺的可信性”和“威胁的可信性”是动态博弈的核心问题,通过交出决定权、切断沟通等多种方式可破解VOC试点博弈僵局。     

A bioeconomic model of a single-species fishery with a marine reserve

This study examines the impact of the creation of marine protected areas (MPAs), from both economic and biological perspectives. In particular, we examine the effects of protected patches and harvesting on resource populations. We conclude that protected patches are an effective means of conserving resource populations, even though extinction cannot be prevented in all cases. We discuss the dynamic optimization of a harvest policy by choosing E(t), the harvesting effort, as the dynamic variable. We also discuss the optimal equilibrium harvest policy and explain the biological and bioeconomic interpretations of the results.     

旅游新景区开发的利益相关者博弈分析——以平顶山清水河景区为例

以博弈均衡理论为基础,以平顶山市清水河景区为案例,通过对"人系统"中各利益相关者的实地调研和走访,从博弈论的角度探讨了各利益相关者之间的博弈行为及其博弈均衡。研究表明,只有顾全各利益相关者的利益追求和利益最优化,保证多方利益的协调才是旅游新景区开发的最佳途径,从而为旅游新景区开发提出了一种新的分析方法。     

Existential threat and compliance with pro-environmental norms

Recent research on the effects of personal threat suggests that perceived threat might enhance pro-environmental behavior when pro-environmental norms are in focus. In three experiments we found support for the latter assumption, showing that mortality salience and salience of pro-environmental norms interacted in predicting pro-environmental attitudes and information search (Study 1), sustainable behavior in a forest management game (Study 2), as well as pro-environmental intentions and behavior (Study 3). Specifically, mortality salience increased pro-environmental conduct only when pro-environmental norms were salient. Moreover, norm salience only had an effect on pro-environmental attitudes and behavior when the threat of personal mortality was salient. We discuss the implications of these results for both terror management theory and the promotion of pro-environmental behaviors.     

Monitoring of natural and synthetic hormones in a polluted river

Natural (estradiol, estrone, testosterone, estriol) and synthetic hormones (ethinylestradiol) are constantly excreted into the environment from human and animal sources but little is known of their transport. The purpose of this study was to determine how far along a 100 km river course that hormones could be detected after contamination with sewage effluent or fishpond effluent. Fourteen sites in the Lower Jordan River drainage were sampled (two sites above the sewage effluent contamination, eight sites below the contamination and four tributaries) before and after the dry season of 2002 (Spring and Fall). Samples were tested for testosterone, estrogen (estrone and estradiol combined), estriol, ethinylestradiol, ammonia and fecal coli. It was found that the fecal coli count dropped exponentially (from 250,000 to 60/100 ml3) and the ammonia dropped from 15 to less than 1mg/l over the initial 25 km stretch. Over the same stretch, the hormone values declined by half from their maximum values for testosterone (3.3 ng/l), estriol (8.8 ng/l), ethinylestradiol (6.1 ng/l), and estrogen (4.9 ng/l). From 67 to 100 km mark, testosterone (4.8 ng/l) and estrogen (2.4 ng/l) were still elevated while ethinylestradiol and estriol were >or=1.5 ng/l. The high level of testosterone and estrogen between 67 and 100 km marks was probably due to major discharge from fishponds between 23 and 27 km marks. Levels of ethinylestradiol above 1 ng/l, a level which can affect fish, was seen in 70% (12/16) of the samples tested. The data suggest that hormones in readily measured quantities can be transported considerable distances from the source of pollution.