Reduction of Baltic Sea Nutrient Inputs and Allocation of Abatement Costs Within the Baltic Sea Catchment

The Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) requires tools to simulate effects and costs of various nutrient abatement strategies. Hierarchically connected databases and models of the entire catchment have been created to allow decision makers to view scenarios via the decision support system NEST. Increased intensity in agriculture in transient countries would result in increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea, particularly from Poland, the Baltic States, and Russia. Nutrient retentions are high, which means that the nutrient reduction goals of 135 000 tons N and 15 000 tons P, as formulated in the BSAP from 2007, correspond to a reduction in nutrient loadings to watersheds by 675 000 tons N and 158 000 tons P. A cost-minimization model was used to allocate nutrient reductions to measures and countries where the costs for reducing loads are low. The minimum annual cost to meet BSAP basin targets is estimated to 4.7 billion €.     

The environmental regime of the Baltic Sea

This paper explains the transition and selection of environmental regimes, from the general framework of the regime in question, its evolution over time, and primary national approaches to the regime. We evaluate the significance of the environmental problems covered by the international regime for the countries concerned and the importance of problem-solving at the international level, and we assess national interests and approaches towards problem-solving and participation in the regime, especially their dynamics and changes in the period of transition.     

Bacterial diversity and function in the Baltic Sea with an emphasis on cyanobacteria

In this article we summarize the current knowledge of Baltic Sea cyanobacteria, focusing on diversity, toxicity, and nitrogen fixation in the filamentous heterocystous taxa. We also review the recent results of our microbial diversity studies in planktonic and benthic habitats in the Baltic Sea. Based on molecular analyses, we have improved the understanding of cyanobacterial population structure by assessing genetic diversity within species that are morphologically inseparable. Moreover, we have studied microbial functions such as toxin production and nitrogen fixation in situ under different environmental conditions. Phosphorus limitation of bloom-forming, nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria was clearly verified, emphasizing the importance of continuous efforts to reduce this element in the Baltic Sea. We have designed a rapid and reliable detection method for the toxic cyanobacterium Nodularia spumigena, which can be used to study bloom formation of this important toxin producer.     

Fish pollution with anthropogenic 137Cs in the southern Baltic Sea

This paper presents the results of a study on changes in ¹³⁷Cs activity concentrations in three fish species from the southern Baltic Sea: cod (Gadus morhua), herring (Clupea harengus) and flounder (Platichtys flesus), in the period 2000–2010. During the study period a marked decline in cesium activity concentration in fish muscle tissue was observed, which reflected changes in radionuclide activity concentration in seawater. No statistically significant temporal trends were determined in changes of concentration factors (CF_{fish/seawater}) calculated for the examined fish species. The analysis of ¹³⁷Cs activity as a function of ichthyological parameters revealed the lack of a relationship between radionuclide activity concentrations in herring muscle tissue and the fish age in an narrow age range (2–4 years). However, a reverse proportionality of total fish mass, as well as body length, against ¹³⁷Cs activity concentrations in muscles was well documented. The latter observation can be the direct result of the dilution effect related to the increase of fish body weight. ¹³⁷Cs activity concentration in muscle tissue of the five fish species forms a declining sequence: Gadus morhua, Platichthys flesus, Clupea harengus, Perca fluviatilis and Neogobius melanostomus.     

Climate change effects on river flow to the Baltic Sea

River flow to the Baltic Sea originates under a range of different climate regimes in a drainage basin covering some 1,600,000 km2. Changes to the climate in the Baltic Basin will not only affect the total amount of freshwater flowing into the sea, but also the distribution of the origin of these flows. Using hydrological modeling, the effects of future climate change on river runoff to the Baltic Sea have been analyzed. Four different climate change scenarios from the Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme (SWECLIM) were used. The resulting change to total mean annual river flow to the Baltic Sea ranges from -2% to +15% of present-day flow according to the different climate scenarios. The magnitude of changes within different subregions of the basin varies considerably, with the most severe mean annual changes ranging from -30% to +40%. However, common to all of the scenarios evaluated is a general trend of reduced river flow from the south of the Baltic Basin together with increased river flow from the north.     

Effects of pulp mill chlorate on Baltic Sea algae

The long-term effects of pulp mill chlorate on different algal species of the Baltic Sea were studied in land-based model ecosystems simulating the littoral zone. Brown algae (Phaeophyta) exhibited an extraordinarily high sensitivity to chlorate and pulp mill effluents containing chlorate. All brown algal species ceased growth or showed major signs of toxicity at all concentrations tested, down to microgram per litre levels. EC50 levels for growth of Fucus vesiculosus were about 80-100 microg ClO3- litre(-1). Blue-green algae (Cyanophyta) were not deleteriously affected nor were green algae (Chlorophyta). The perennial and annual species of red algae (Rhodophyta) were also unaffected by the effluents. Diatoms did not show any sensitivity and phytoplankton (fresh- and brackish water) were particularly insensitive. A phanerogam, Zostera marina was also unaffected by the treatments.     

Ecosystem consequences of cyanobacteria in the northern Baltic Sea

Cyanobacteria of the Baltic Sea have multiple effects on organisms that influence the food chain dynamics on several trophic levels. Cyanobacteria contain several bioactive compounds, such as alkaloids, peptides, and lipopolysaccharides. A group of nonribosomally produced oligopeptides, namely microcystins and nodularin, are tumor promoters and cause oxidative stress in the affected cells. Zooplankton graze on cyanobacteria, and when ingested, the hepatotoxins (nodularin) decrease the egg production of, for example, copepods. However, the observed effects are very variable, because many crustaceans are tolerant to nodularin and because cyanobacteria may complement the diet of grazers in small amounts. Cyanobacterial toxins are transferred through the food web from one trophic level to another. The transfer rate is relatively low in the pelagic food web, but reduced feeding and growth rates of fish larvae have been observed. In the benthic food web, especially in blue mussels, nodularin concentrations are high, and benthic feeding juvenile flounders have been observed to disappear from bloom areas. In the littoral ecosystem, gammarids have shown increased mortality and weakening of reproductive success under cyanobacterial exposure. In contrast, mysid shrimps seem to be tolerant to cyanobacterial exposure. In fish larvae, detoxication of nodularin poses a metabolic cost that is reflected as decreased growth and condition, which may increase their susceptibility to predation. Cyanobacterial filaments and aggregates also interfere with both hydromechanical and visual feeding of planktivores. The feeding appendages of mysid shrimps may clog, and the filaments interfere with prey detection of pike larvae. On the other hand, a cyanobacterial bloom may provide a refuge for both zooplankton and small fish. As the decaying bloom also provides an ample source of organic carbon and nutrients for the organisms of the microbial loop, the zooplankton species capable of selective feeding may thrive in bloom conditions. Cyanobacteria also compete for nutrients with other primary producers and change the nitrogen (N): phosphorus (P) balance of their environment by their N-fixation. Further, the bioactive compounds of cyanobacteria directly influence other primary producers, favoring cyanobacteria, chlorophytes, dinoflagellates, and nanoflagellates and inhibiting cryptophytes. As the selective grazers also shift the grazing pressure on other species than cyanobacteria, changes in the structure and functioning of the Baltic Sea communities and ecosystems are likely to occur during the cyanobacterial bloom season.     

Shell deformations in the Baltic clam Macoma balthica from southern Baltic Sea (the Gulf of Gdansk): hypotheses on environmental effects

High-resolution digital photography and graphical image analyses systems have been used to define external morphometric characters of shell deformations in four populations of the Baltic clam Macoma balthica from the Gulf of Gdansk (southern Baltic Sea). The proposed shell deformation indices (SDI), which were based on the relationship of selected dimensions in the posterior and the anterior part of the shell, showed at least three morphological features that provide a distinctive diagnosis of "regular" and "deformed" clams: the presence of flexure on the posterior side (SDI1), elongated posterior region (SDI2), and shell growth (SDI3). The degree and prevalence of deformed clams varied locally over space. Increase in percentage contribution of aberrated shells with depth, corresponding to oxygen depletion profile in the Gulf, suggests low oxygen concentrations as the main agent exerting a deforming influence. The observed morphological aberrations developed with age (size) of a bivalve, suggesting a long-term effect of causal factors, and were accompanied by lightening shell weight, possibly due to decalcification of previously deposited calcareous material during anaerobic metabolism. It is hypothesized that hypoxic/anoxic conditions and a subsequent presence of hydrogen sulfide on a deep organic-rich sea bottom induce shell form alterations that enable the pumping of oxygenated water from above the anoxic layer. Such a morphological modification highlights the functional significance of shell deformations in protective response to the ambient low-oxygen concentrations. Sediment organotin concentrations fall within moderate to high contamination range and, therefore, may also have an adverse impact on the shell form. DNA analyses of the fragment of mitochondrial gene cytochrome oxidase I (COI, 393 base pairs) showed homogenous genetic structure of regular and deformed clams, indicating that shell deformations in M. balthica are primarily driven by acclimatization to the ambient environmental conditions.     

Denitrification in the river estuaries of the northern Baltic Sea

Estuaries have been suggested to have an important role in reducing the nitrogen load transported to the sea. We measured denitrification rates in six estuaries of the northern Baltic Sea. Four of them were river mouths in the Bothnian Bay (northern Gulf of Bothnia), and two were estuary bays, one in the Archipelago Sea (southern Gulf of Bothnia) and the other in the Gulf of Finland. Denitrification rates in the four river mouths varied between 330 and 905 micromol N m(-2) d(-1). The estuary bays at the Archipelago Sea and the Gulf of Bothnia had denitrification rates from 90 micromol N m(-2) d(-1) to 910 micromol N m(-2) d(-1) and from 230 micromol N m(-2) d(-1) to 320 micromol N m(-2) d(-1), respectively. Denitrification removed 3.6-9.0% of the total nitrogen loading in the river mouths and in the estuary bay in the Gulf of Finland, where the residence times were short. In the estuary bay with a long residence time, in the Archipelago Sea, up to 4.5% of nitrate loading and 19% of nitrogen loading were removed before entering the sea. According to our results, the sediments of the fast-flowing rivers and the estuary areas with short residence times have a limited capacity to reduce the nitrogen load to the Baltic Sea.     

Stable isotope analysis in food web research: Systematic review and a vision for the future for the Baltic Sea macro-region

Food web research provides essential insights into ecosystem functioning, but practical applications in ecosystem-based management are hampered by a current lack of knowledge synthesis. To address this gap, we provide the first systematic review of ecological studies applying stable isotope analysis, a pivotal method in food web research, in the heavily anthropogenically impacted Baltic Sea macro-region. We identified a thriving research field, with 164 publications advancing a broad range of fundamental and applied research topics, but also found structural shortcomings limiting ecosystem-level understanding. We argue that enhanced collaboration and integration, including the systematic submission of Baltic Sea primary datasets to stable isotope databases, would help to overcome many of the current shortcomings, unify the scattered knowledge base, and promote future food web research and science-based resource management. The effort undertaken here demonstrates the value of macro-regional synthesis, in enhancing access to existing data and supporting strategic planning of research agendas.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-022-01785-1.     

Modeling riverine nutrient transport to the Baltic Sea: a large-scale approach

We developed for the first time a catchment model simulating simultaneously the nutrient land-sea fluxes from all 105 major watersheds within the Baltic Sea drainage area. A consistent modeling approach to all these major watersheds, i.e., a consistent handling of water fluxes (hydrological simulations) and loading functions (emission data), will facilitate a comparison of riverine nutrient transport between Baltic Sea subbasins that differ substantially. Hot spots of riverine emissions, such as from the rivers Vistula, Oder, and Daugava or from the Danish coast, can be easily demonstrated and the comparison between these hot spots, and the relatively unperturbed rivers in the northern catchments show decisionmakers where remedial actions are most effective to improve the environmental state of the Baltic Sea, and, secondly, what percentage reduction of riverine nutrient loads is possible. The relative difference between measured and simulated fluxes during the validation period was generally small. The cumulative deviation (i.e., relative bias) [Sigma(Simulated - Measured)/Sigma Measured x 100 (%)] from monitored water and nutrient fluxes amounted to +8.2% for runoff, to -2.4% for dissolved inorganic nitrogen, to +5.1% for total nitrogen, to +13% for dissolved inorganic phosphorus and to +19% for total phosphorus. Moreover, the model suggests that point sources for total phosphorus compiled by existing pollution load compilations are underestimated because of inconsistencies in calculating effluent loads from municipalities.     

Echoes from the Past: A Healthy Baltic Sea Requires More Effort

Integrated sediment multiproxy studies and modeling were used to reconstruct past changes in the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Results of natural changes over the past 6000 years in the Baltic Sea ecosystem suggest that forecasted climate warming might enhance environmental problems of the Baltic Sea. Integrated modeling and sediment proxy studies reveal increased sea surface temperatures and expanded seafloor anoxia (in deep basins) during earlier natural warm climate phases, such as the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Under future IPCC scenarios of global warming, there is likely no improvement of bottom water conditions in the Baltic Sea. Thus, the measures already designed to produce a healthier Baltic Sea are insufficient in the long term. The interactions between climate change and anthropogenic impacts on the Baltic Sea should be considered in management, implementation of policy strategies in the Baltic Sea environmental issues, and adaptation to future climate change.     

Framing Environmental Risks in the Baltic Sea: A News Media Analysis

Scientific complexity and uncertainty is a key challenge for environmental risk governance and to understand how risks are framed and communicated is of utmost importance. The Baltic Sea ecosystem is stressed and exposed to different risks like eutrophication, overfishing, and hazardous chemicals. Based on an analysis of the Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter, this study discusses media representations of these risks. The results show that the reporting on the Baltic Sea has been fairly stable since the beginning of the 1990s. Many articles acknowledge several risks, but eutrophication receives the most attention and is also considered the biggest threat. Authorities, experts, organizations, and politicians are the dominating actors, while citizens and industry representatives are more or less invisible. Eutrophication is not framed in terms of uncertainty concerning the risk and consequences, but rather in terms of main causes.     

The Effects of Hypoxia on Sediment Nitrogen Cycling in the Baltic Sea

Primary production in the eutrophic Baltic Sea is limited by nitrogen availability; hence denitrification (natural transformation of nitrate to gaseous N₂) in the sediments is crucial in mitigating the effects of eutrophication. This study shows that dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium (DNRA) process, where nitrogen is not removed but instead recycled in the system, dominates nitrate reduction in low oxygen conditions (O₂ <110 μM), which have been persistent in the central Gulf of Finland during the past decade. The nitrogen removal rates measured in this study show that nitrogen removal has decreased in the Gulf of Finland compared to rates measured in mid-1990s and the decrease is most likely caused by the increased bottom water hypoxia.     

Estimates of air-sea exchange of mercury in the Baltic Sea

The concentrations of total gaseous mercury (TGM) in air over the southern Baltic Sea and dissolved gaseous mercury (DGM) in the surface seawater were measured during summer and winter. The summer expedition was performed on 02–15 July 1997, and the winter expedition on 02–15 March 1998. Average TGM and DGM values obtained were 1.70 and 17.6 ng m⁻³ in the summer and 1.39 and 17.4 ng m⁻³ in the winter, respectively. Based on the TGM and DGM data, surface water saturation and air-water fluxes were calculated. The results indicate that the seawater was supersaturated with gaseous mercury during both seasons, with the highest values occurring in the summer. Flux estimates were made using the thin film gas-exchange model. The average Hg fluxes obtained for the summer and winter measurements were 38 and 20 ng m⁻² d⁻¹, respectively. The annual mercury flux from this area was estimated by a combination of the TGM and DGM data with monthly average water temperatures and wind velocities, resulting in an annual flux of 9.5 μg m⁻² yr⁻¹. This flux is of the same order of magnitude as the average wet deposition input of mercury in this area. This indicates that reemissions from the water surface need to be considered when making mass-balance estimates of mercury in the Baltic Sea as well as modelling calculations of long-range transboundary transport of mercury in northern Europe.