Mapping of bioclimatic comfort for potential planning using GIS in Aydin

People are relaxed (satisfied or well-off) in what is described as comfortable climatic conditions. In such conditions, a person’s energy balance is not disturbed because of stresses from extreme heat or cold. Bioclimatic structure has been well researched and should be a consideration in the planning process for arranging comfortable spaces. It represents the understanding that energy balance is one of the basic elements of a sustainable landscape design. The goals of this study have been to create ideal places for human thermal comfort and to advance objectives focused on the importance of sustainable and ecological landscape planning and design work, along with their accompanying economic benefits. In this study, which focuses on the climate of the Province of Aydin, the most suitable areas for bioclimatic comfort have been identified. The climate values for the Aydin Province have been taken from a total of 22 meteorological stations. Stations at altitudes ranging from 11 to 871 m were used to note the climate changes that occurred. The average temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed from each station, including data collected using Geographic Information System (GIS) software, were transferred. GIS maps were then created from the imported data, and areas of optimal comfort around the city of Aydin were determined. The results show the range that is suitable for a bioclimatic comfort zone in Aydin. The bioclimatic comfort range was determined to be roughly 17 °C for Aydin, and the city of Aydin demonstrated a comfort range between 14 and 19 °C. As a result, the city of Aydin was shown to be a suitable area for bioclimatic comfort.     

Bioclimatic modelling of current and projected climatic suitability of coffee (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Coffea arabica</Emphasis>) production in Zimbabwe

Coffee is an important commodity crop in Zimbabwe and many other African countries in terms of its contribution to local and national economies. Coffee production in terms of productivity and quality face severe constraints due to climate change. A study was therefore carried out to understand and quantify the potential impact of climate change on the coffee sector in Zimbabwe using a bioclimatic modelling approach. Current climatically suitable areas were identified and compared with those areas identified to be climatically suitable under projected 2050 climatic conditions. The projected climatic conditions were obtained from climate predictions of two models: CCSM4 model and HadGEM2 model. Coffee production was found to be mostly sensitive to precipitation factors as these were the most important in determining climatic suitability of coffee production in Zimbabwe. The modelling showed that current coffee suitability varies spatially between the four coffee producing districts in Zimbabwe. Chipinge district has the largest area climatically suitable for coffee production followed by Chimanimani district with Mutare district having the smallest. The modelling predicted that there will be a spatial and quantitative change in climatic suitability for coffee production in Zimbabwe by 2050. The greatest changes are projected for Mutare district where over three quarters according to the CCSM4 model and the entire district according to the HadGEM2 model will turn marginal for coffee production. A westward shift in climatic suitability of coffee was observed for Chipinge and Chimanimani district. The models predicted a loss of between 30,000 ha (CCSM4) and 50,000 ha (HadGEM2) in areas climatically suitable for coffee production by 2050 in Zimbabwe. These changes are likely to be driven by changes in the distribution of precipitation received in the coffee areas. The study presents possible adaptation measures that can be adopted by the coffee sector in Zimbabwe and the region to maintain coffee productivity under a changing climate.     

Prognosis of the impact of global climate change on zonal ecosystems of the Volga River Basin

On the basis of the GISS prognostic climatic model, landscape-ecological scenarios concerning the immediate future of the region are considered in the forms of cartographic and analytical models. These scenarios predict a growing thermoarid bioclimatic trend accompanied by a general northward displacement of zonal boundaries, with corresponding acceleration of the biological cycle and increase in the productivity of boreal forests.     

A preliminary study of ozone trend and its impact on environment in Hong Kong

As far as the impact of air pollutants on human health being is concerned, ozone (O3) is one of the most pollutant sources, and, in particular, the ground level ozone is responsible for a variety of adverse effects on both human being and plant life. To protect the population from such adverse health effects, early information and precautions about the high ozone level need to be ascertained. In this study, statistical characteristics of ground level ozone is analyzed according to field monitoring data in mixed residential, commercial and industrial areas, e.g., Tsuen Wan area in Hong Kong. The study deals with the characteristics of hourly and daily mean ozone levels under different climatic conditions such as temperature, solar radiation (SR), wind speed (WS), and other pollutant concentration levels. The study aims to investigate the importance of meteorological factors and their impact on relevant pollutant concentration levels from a chemical aspect. Further, reasons for the spatial and temporal variation of ozone levels are discussed. All these results will provide a physical basis for accurately predicting ozone concentration in similar research.     

Climate impact on agroeconomy in semiarid region of Armenia

With 21 % of gross domestic product (GDP) in agricultural sector and having consistently experienced natural disasters (e.g., drought, flood), Armenia is very vulnerable to climate and its change. Given the fact that 63 % of the entire land is planted with grains, this study primarily focuses on the market for wheat flour and bread. Economic welfare loss due to drought episodes is calculated using the economic data integrated with climate measures. Economic data are utilized for the period 1995–2011 (obtained from Statistical Office of Armenia) and specifically include the quantity produced and consumed of wheat flour and bread combined with mean prices, population income, GDP in the agricultural sector, GDP in the planting sector, and governmental expenditure on subsidies. Climate data include temperature and precipitation during the period 1966–2011 (obtained from National Hydrometeorological Service of Armenia). The analysis includes three main components. The first utilizes a market framework that analyzes the impact of climate on equilibrium prices and quantities as well as trade and tax effects. The second employs a logarithmic utility function to estimate the effective insurance policy for the agricultural sector using risk management strategies. Lastly, a macroeconomic model has been developed to assess the efficient sum of governmental expenditure on subsidies and irrigation during the drought episodes and during the mean climatic conditions. All three parts of the study are developed for the first time.     

Present and future climate conditions for winegrowing in Spain

This study deals with the question of how winegrowing in Spain may be altered by anthropogenic climate change. The present state and expected future development of three bioclimatic indices relevant for winegrowing were assessed by observation, and four regional climate models from the EU-ENSEMBLES project were investigated. When comparing the 2061–2090 scenario period to the 1961–1990 reference period, the models unanimously indicate a significant increase in the mean of the two considered thermal indices over the entire study region. However, for the index based on temperature and precipitation, the models are heavily biased when verified against observations and generally disagree on the size of the projected future change. For this index, unanimous model agreement was only found for northwestern Spain where all models indicated a significant decrease in the mean. From these results, regional climate change is expected to negatively affect the quality of wine in the growing regions of central and southern Spain, and the Ebro valley, whereas positive effects should be expected in the northwest. No significant changes in the risk of mildew infestation are to be expected except for the northwest, where this risk is projected to decrease.     

Impacts of climate change on the distribution of species and communities in the Chilean Mediterranean ecosystem

The Mediterranean region of Chile is considered a biodiversity hot spot. An increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation, as projected for the end of this century by global circulation models, would likely change the distribution of the sclerophyllous thorny shrubland and woodland. In order to assess those potential impacts, the MAXENT algorithm was used to project potential changes in the distribution of the Mediterranean ecosystem. Ecological niche models were fitted and used to project the potential distribution of these forest ecosystems by the end of the century. Projections were made using data from the PRECIS model for the A2 and B2 climate change scenarios and two strategies of occupancy: free migration and non-migration. Distribution models of sclerophyllous, woodland and shrubland performed accurately representing current species’ distribution. When we assume non-migration responses under climate change scenarios, results reveal a decrease in the distribution area for all the species. The areas where the highest reduction in a suitable environment was found are located along the coastline, where higher temperature increases have been projected. For native ecosystems from the Andean Range region, such as communities dominated by thorny species, a stable habitat was found, associated with a higher adaptation capability to future climatic projections. Hence, in the future, buffer zones originated by “topo-climatic” conditions might play a key role in protecting Central Chile biodiversity.     

基于神经元网络模型的崇明东滩湿地生态系统健康评估

崇明东滩湿地位于崇明岛的东端,是全球重要的生态敏感区域,由于受到人类活动的干扰,生态系统健康遭受威胁,因此有必要对其健康进行定量的评价研究。以崇明东滩湿地为研究区域,以生态系统健康理论为基础,选取地形地貌、环境、生物、人类干扰等指标,并将研究区的健康分为五级,建立东滩湿地健康评价指标体系。结合GIS的技术,以网格为评价单元,并在神经元网络模型理论和技术的支持下,提出了一个分布式神经网络湿地生态系统健康评价模型,定量的分析崇明东滩湿地的健康状况,为湿地的合理利用与保护提供决策支持和科学依据。研究结果从空间上显示了崇明东滩湿地不同区域的健康状况,总体来说处于一个比较健康的状态,但健康状态较好的区域面积只占30％,相对一般区占70％,且生态系统健康将呈下降趋势。因此,需要对湿地加强管理,使湿地生态系统可持续发展。     

中国东部季风区末次冰期以来古气候模拟

通过对我国东部季风区现代青土样品孢粉组合与气候因子间的回归分析,分别建立了孢粉组合与一月,七月气温和年降水量的转换函数,进而建立了本区末次冰期以来的孢粉－气候数据库,模拟末次冰期盛冰期,消冰期,全新世前北方期－北方期,大西洋期,亚北方期等五个古气候期的冬季和夏季温度场,降水场。     

Climatic changes and their impact on socio-economic sectors in the Bhutan Himalayas: an implementation strategy

This paper contributes to an enhanced understanding of present climatic conditions, observed climate trends and regional climate vulnerability of the Bhutan Himalayas. Bhutan’s complex, often high-altitude terrain and the severe impact of the Indian summer monsoon leads to a strong exposure of the countries’ key economic sectors (agriculture, forestry, hydropower generation and tourism) to climatic changes. Climate change also threatens Bhutan’s vast biodiversity and increases the likelihood of natural hazards (e.g. glacier lake outburst floods, flash floods, droughts and forest fires). A better understanding of Bhutan’s climate and its variability, as well as observed and possible climate impacts, will help in improving the handling of regional social, economic and ecologic challenges not limited to the Himalayas. Only a few climatological studies exist for the eastern Himalayas. They mainly focus on adaptation to immediate threats by glacier lake outbursts. In contrast, this paper (1) investigates the average spatial and inner-annual diversity of the air temperature regime of Bhutan, based on local meteorological observations, (2) discusses past temperature variability, based on global datasets, and (3) relates effects of observed warming to water availability, hydropower development, natural hazards, forests, biodiversity, agriculture, human health and tourism in the Bhutan Himalayas. Results indicate a large spatial and temporal temperature variability within Bhutan and considerably increasing temperatures especially over recent decades. Implications of regional climatic changes on various socio-economic sectors and possible adaptation efforts are discussed.     

气候变化和人类活动对丹江口入库径流的影响及评估

科学估算气候变化和人类活动对河川径流的影响,可以更为合理地规划利用地球水资源。针对丹江口水库入库径流的减少问题,分别采用Mann-Kendall方法和Pettitt检验,对1960~2012年间丹江口水库入库径流的年际和年内变化趋势进行了分析,并与同时期汉江上游20个地面观测站的降水、气温的年际和年内演化趋势进行了比较,从气候变化和人类活动影响的两个方面分析了入库径流减少的原因。在此基础上,利用气候弹性模型分别估算了气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响度。结果表明:近年来丹江口入库径流的减少主要受春季和秋季径流减少的影响,在春季径流的减少总量中,气候变化的贡献度为67%,人类活动为33%;秋季径流的减少总量中,气候变化的贡献度为88%,人类活动为12%。气候变化是导致丹江口入库径流减少的主要原因。     

1470～1949年贵州地区干湿序列的重建及其影响分析

贵州地区在小冰期的气候环境状况及其对人类活动的影响研究缺乏,综合历史文献资料分析与地质记录的研究仍有待加强。基于1470~1949年贵州地区旱涝历史文献资料重建该区干湿变化序列,然后运用互信息的相关分析方法对此序列进行检验,再通过小波分析探究其干湿变化过程与周期。同时,结合高分辨率石笋δ18O序列、海洋热状况和国家与地方政权的动荡情况,讨论其控制因子及其对人类活动的影响。研究表明：（1）贵州地区15世纪末期气候偏干,16世纪整体较湿润,在经历了17世纪前期的干旱期后,从17世纪中期至20世纪前期为一个长期较稳定的湿润期,与众多古环境研究记录较为吻合;（2）小波分析表明干湿变化具有128~155年、32~55年、11~20年的周期,反映其干湿变化主要受太阳活动控制;（3）贵州地区湿润程度受南亚夏季风强度、ENSO、AMO等因素影响,且对当地政治活动和地表生态环境产生了重要影响。     

Decision support systems for stored water quality: 2. An example application

The components of an environmental decision support system (EDSS) were outlined in Part 1 of this paper. Here, an example application is given using a range of data from the database in order to assess the utility of one specific model chosen from the modelbase: the one-dimensional thermal stratification model, EDD1. The model is applied to a range of lake types worldwide.     

Modelling organic matter dynamics in New Zealand soils.

To ensure the sustainability of land systems in terms of nutrient cycling and maintenance of soil physical conditions, there is a need to understand soil organic matter (SOM) and its dynamics. It has been suggested that soil-carbon (C) models developed internationally do not perform well under New Zealand's unique climatic and soil mineralogical conditions. To test this hypothesis, we conducted 14C-labelled ryegrass decomposition studies and assessed the influence of abiotic factors on decomposition rates. These factors were characterized by estimating system mean residence times (MRTs) from estimates of first-order rate coefficients in a simple, three-compartment model. A range of MRTs obtained for decomposition was related to climatic conditions and soil properties. We summarise this work and extend this study to apply the Rothamsted soil-C turnover model, a five-compartment model, to our data with the view of testing both the model projections and the decomposability factors assumed in the model.     

Climatic drivers of potential hazards in Mediterranean coasts

This paper studies climatic drivers (air and water temperature, precipitation rates, river discharge, sea level and storm patterns) in four Mediterranean regions: the Catalan-Valencia Coast (Spain), the Oran (Algeria) and Gabès (Tunisia) Gulfs and the western Nile Delta (Egypt). The paper also considers the potential hazards that these drivers can induce. It first analyses climatic trends in the drivers, taking into account the available time series of recorded and simulated meteo-oceanographic data from different sources. Next, it presents the general framework to assess biogeophysical hazards (flooding, erosion, droughts and water quality), followed by a simple and yet robust evaluation of those hazards for the four studied coastal sites. Assuming climate change projections under different scenarios and considering the observed trends in drivers, the resulting erosion rates due to sea-level rise and wave storm effects have been estimated. The Nile and Ebro Deltas, together with the Oran Gulf, are more vulnerable than the Gulfs of Valencia and Gabès. Regarding water quality in terms of (a) precipitation and dissolved oxygen in the water column and (b) sea surface temperature, the results show that the most vulnerable zones for the projected conditions (a) are the Gulfs of Oran, Valencia and Gabès, while the Nile Delta is the region where the decrease in water quality will be less pronounced. For the projected conditions (b), the most vulnerable zone is the Ebro Delta, while the impact in the other three cases will be smaller and of comparable magnitude. Finally, the overall future impact of these hazards (associated to climatic change) in the four sites is discussed in comparative terms, deriving some conclusions.     

不同季节划分尺度下巢湖流域气候变化趋势分析

根据现代气候学、候平均气温及气象学上的季节划分等3种不同的季节划分方法,利用国家气候中心发布的1961～2010年气象台站观测资料插值格点化数据集（CN051）,选取巢湖流域内及其周边的26个格点气温、降水量资料,运用年代际变化、距平、回归分析以及Mann Kendall 方法,分析比较巢湖流域近50 a三类季节的气温、降水量变化趋势和特征。结果表明：3种方法划分出不同季节,分析温度和降水的变化趋势时,它们各自的结果有所差异,甚至差别相当明显,运用气象学季节划分方法就成功地推翻了全球变暖的说法。所以在全球变暖的大背景下,分析季节的气候变化应考虑每年实际气温,从多尺度进行分析,才能得到准确而又科学的结果     

Modeling groundwater flow and its associated environmental problem in a lowland coastal plain: a first step towards a sustainable development plan

Groundwater is an important resource in the alluvial coastal lowland plains. In the Shiroishi lowland plain, southwestern Kyushu Island of Japan, land subsidence due to groundwater development has long been recognized as an environmental issue. Land subsidence can have several negative economic and social implications. In this study, an integrated numerical groundwater and land subsidence model, which combines a three-dimensional numerical groundwater flow model and a one-dimensional soil consolidation model, was used to simulate the dynamic groundwater flow and ground subsidence due to pumping. On the other hand, a groundwater optimization model was also formulated to search for an optimal safe yield of groundwater pumping without violating physical, environmental, social-economic constraints. The model results reveal that groundwater levels in the aquifers greatly vary from season to season in response to varying climatic and pumping conditions. Consequently, land subsidence has rapidly occurred throughout the area with the central prone in Shiroishi plain. The study also proposes a countermeasure against subsiding process in the area by means of numerical models. The optimization model result suggests that pumping can be increased in the northern part of the study area without leading to significant land subsidence.     

Assessment of indoor environmental quality in existing multi-family buildings in North–East Europe

Sixteen existing multi-family buildings (94 apartments) in Finland and 20 (96 apartments) in Lithuania were investigated prior to their renovation in order to develop and test out a common protocol for the indoor environmental quality (IEQ) assessment, and to assess the potential for improving IEQ along with energy efficiency. Baseline data on buildings, as well as data on temperature (T), relative humidity (RH), carbon dioxide (CO₂), carbon monoxide (CO), particulate matter (PM), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), formaldehyde, volatile organic compounds (VOCs), radon, and microbial content in settled dust were collected from each apartment. In addition, questionnaire data regarding housing quality and health were collected from the occupants. The results indicated that most measured IEQ parameters were within recommended limits. However, different baselines in each country were observed especially for parameters related to thermal conditions and ventilation. Different baselines were also observed for the respondents' satisfaction with their residence and indoor air quality, as well as their behavior related to indoor environment. In this paper, we present some evidence for the potential in improving IEQ along with energy efficiency in the current building stock, followed by discussion of possible IEQ indicators and development of the assessment protocol.     

城市热场剖面的分形维数计算及其意义研究——以上海中心城区为例

城市热环境是城市中建筑物的不断增加及人类活动、大气状况、地表热量传输等多种因素综合作用的结果,因此城市往往具有极为复杂的热表面。由于热量分配、传输具有一定的复杂性,传统的模型预测与定点观测方法在分析城市热表面空间结构及其形成机制方面存在一定的不足。随着空间信息科学的发展,卫星遥感技术为获取城市热场信息提供了可靠的手段。选用上海市2000年6月14日的Landsat ETM+热波段影像,首先反演城市地表温度,再引入剖面线分形的方法,在GIS的支持下,计算从人民广场出发的8个方向的分维数,并进一步探讨剖面线分形的意义,得到如下结论：城市热表面的剖面线具有明显的分形特征,8个方向的分维数为1.530 0～1.780 6,表征不同剖面线的复杂程度。热场表面剖面线的分维数揭示了3个方面的意义：首先不同的分维数反映热场不同方向上温度变化的复杂程度;其次,相对于城市中心,反映不同方向上城市边界形态的差异性;第三,进一步揭示不同方向上,下垫面土地利用类型空间组合变化的复杂程度。     

重庆市广阳岛生态规划对局地气候影响的数值模拟试验

利用城市微尺度模式,模拟分析了重庆广阳岛城市生态规划对局地气候环境的影响。结果表明:城市微尺度模式对原始土地利用方案的精细化模拟显示,广阳岛冬季1月以北风为主,岛屿西侧风速较东侧偏大,而夏季7月的主导风向为东风,岛屿的东北部为偏东风,西南侧为西北风。广阳岛1月和7月的温度场分布都为东高西低。全岛1月都属于舒适度较高的区域,其中岛屿东北部舒适度最高,而7月岛屿东北部由于气温较高,舒适度较低。生态规划方案的模拟表明,对局地小气候影响最大的是温度场,能有效降低了广阳岛的近地面气温。生态规划方案能有效地改善广阳岛的局地小气候,提高人体舒适度,广阳岛冬季1月全岛都较为舒适,而夏季7月舒适度最高的区域位于岛屿中西部。