Impact changes of climatic extremes on arable farming in the north of the Netherlands

Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change in multiple ways. Here, we use the northern region of the Netherlands as a case study to explore how risk assessments for climate change impacts on crop production can address multiple vulnerabilities. We present a methodology, which we call agro climate calendar (ACC) that (i) includes potential yield losses, as well as loss of product quality, and (ii) assesses the risks of a variety of climate factors including weather extremes and the emergence and abundance of pests and diseases. Climate factors are defined for two time slices: 1990 (1976–2005) and 2040 (2026–2055); the frequency of occurrence of the factors is compared for the two periods, and the resulting frequency shifts are presented in a crop calendar on a monthly basis. This yields an indication of the magnitude and direction of changes in climatic conditions that can lead to damage by extreme events and pests and diseases. We present results for the two most important crops in the region, seed potato, and winter wheat. The results provide a good overview of risks from climate factors, and the most important threats and opportunities are identified. This semi-quantitative approach is firmly rooted in farm management, which is the level where operational and strategic decisions are made. Thus, the approach is well suited to assist local stakeholders such as farmers and policy makers to explore farm-level adaptation. This work is complementary to previous modeling work that focused mainly on the relation between mean climate change factors (i.e., temperature) and crop yield.     

Resilience and adaptation to extremes in a changing Himalayan environment

Human communities inhabiting remote and geomorphically fragile high-altitude regions are particularly vulnerable to climate change-related glacial hazards and hydrometeorological extremes. This study presents a strategy for enhancing adaptation and resilience of communities living immediately downstream of two potentially hazardous glacial lakes in the Upper Chenab Basin of the Western Himalaya in India. It uses an interdisciplinary investigative framework, involving ground surveys, participatory mapping, comparison of local perceptions of environmental change and hazards with scientific data, identification of assets and livelihood resources at risk, assessment of existing community-level adaptive capacity and resilience and a brief review of governance issues. In addition to recommending specific actions for securing lives and livelihoods in the study area, the study demonstrates the crucial role of regional ground-level, community-centric assessments in evolving an integrated approach to disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation for high-altitude environments, particularly in the developing world.     

Radionuclides from past uranium mining in rivers of Portugal

During several decades and until a few years ago, uranium mines were exploited in the Centre of Portugal and wastewaters from uranium ore milling facilities were discharged into river basins. To investigate enhancement of radioactivity in freshwater ecosystems, radionuclides of uranium and thorium series were measured in water, sediments, suspended matter, and fish samples from the rivers Vouga, D?o, Távora and Mondego. The results show that these rivers carry sediments with relatively high naturally occurring radioactivity, and display relatively high concentrations of radon dissolved in water, which is typical of a uranium rich region. Riverbed sediments show enhanced concentrations of radionuclides in the mid-section of the Mondego River, a sign of past wastewater discharges from mining and milling works at Urgeiri?a confirmed by the enhanced values of (238)U/(232)Th radionuclide ratios in sediments. Radionuclide concentrations in water, suspended matter and freshwater fish from that section of Mondego are also enhanced in comparison with concentrations measured in other rivers. Based on current radionuclide concentrations in fish, regular consumption of freshwater species by local populations would add 0.032 mSv a(-1) of dose equivalent (1%) to the average background radiation dose. Therefore, it is concluded that current levels of enhanced radioactivity do not pose a significant radiological risk either to aquatic fauna or to freshwater fish consumers.     

Sensitivity of potential natural vegetation in China to projected changes in temperature,precipitation and atmospheric CO2

A sensitivity study was performed to investigate the responses of potential natural vegetation distribution in China to the separate and combined effects of temperature, precipitation and [CO₂], using the process-based equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model BIOME4. The model shows a generally good agreement with a map of the potential natural vegetation distribution based on a numerical comparison using the ΔV statistic (ΔV = 0.25). Mean temperature of each month was increased uniformly by 0–5 K, in 0.5- or 1-K intervals. Mean precipitation of each month was increased and decreased uniformly by 0–30%, in 10% intervals. The analyses were run at fixed CO₂ concentrations of 360 and 720 ppm. Temperature increases shifted most forest boundaries northward and westward, expanded the distribution of xeric biomes, and confined the tundra to progressively higher elevations. Precipitation increases led to a greater area occupied by mesic biomes at the expense of xeric biomes. Most vegetation types in the temperate regions, and on the Tibetan Plateau, expanded westward into the dry continental interior with increasing precipitation. Precipitation decreases had opposite effects. The modelled effect of CO₂ doubling was to partially compensate for the negative effect of drought on the mesic biomes and to increase potential ecosystem carbon storage by about 40%. Warming tended to counteract this effect, by reducing soil carbon storage. Forest biomes showed substantial resilience to climate change, especially when the effects of increasing [CO₂] were taken into account. Savannas, dry woodland and tundra biomes proved sensitive to temperature increases. The transition region of grassland and forest, and the Tibetan plateau, was the most vulnerable region.     

Seasonal changes in radon concentrations in buildings in the region of northeastern Poland

In this study, seasonal observations of radon concentration changes inside buildings carried out in the northeastern region of Poland is presented. One-year measurements of radon concentrations were performed in chosen buildings. The integral method of Cr-39 trace detectors in diffusive chambers was used. Mean values of radon concentrations were determined in monthly, 2-, 3-, 6-month, and annual observations. The fraction of a mean annual concentration of the value obtained in a shorter observation was calculated. Monthly concentration values were from about 0.2 to 14.9 of the annual mean. All buildings revealed seasonal fluctuation of radon concentration. Negative correlation of indoor radon concentration in the buildings and the mean temperature outside was observed in most examined buildings. The lowest coefficient range, determining which part of the annual mean value would be obtained in the 6-month observation, was gained for exposure begun in April or October.     

Soil-plant-animal transfer models to improve soil protection guidelines: a case study from Portugal

Food chain models are essential tools to assess risks of soil contamination in view of product quality including fodder crops and animal products. Here we link soil to plant transfer (SPT) models for potentially toxic elements (PTEs) including As, Ba, Cd, Co, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, Sb, U and Zn with models describing accumulation in animal organs. Current EU standards for food products and acceptable daily intake levels (ADI) for humans were used as critical limits. The combined model is used to assess the impact of soil contamination on animal health, product quality and human health using data from 100 arable fields. Results indicate that 42 existing arable fields near industrial and mining sites are unsuitable for animal grazing in view of food safety due to elevated intake of Cd, Cu, Hg and Pb by cows and sheep. At 10 sites daily intake levels of As by cows exceeded threshold concentrations regarding the quality of animal products.The food chain model also was used inversely to derive soil threshold concentrations in view of EU fodder standards. Calculated threshold levels in soil for As, Cd, Cu, Pb, Hg and Zn appear to be in line with those proposed or used in other EU countries. As such the approach applied here can form a conceptual basis for a more harmonized risk assessment strategy regarding the protection of animal and human health.     

1997-2007年中国生态地租变化分析

生态地租是衡量生态资源利用带来的社会经济效果的重要指标.以投入产出表和生态足迹为基础,分析中国1997 - 2007年生态地租变化情况.结果表明,1997-2007年中国各产业单位经济产出的生态地租量呈减少趋势,农林牧渔业,电、热及水生产和供应业单位经济产出的生态地租量明显高于其他产业;生态地租总量呈不断增加趋势,构成上以工矿业和农林牧渔业生态地租为主,生态地租在行业间转移越来越多;以2007年为对照组,总产出量、生态足迹和生物承载力以及农地面积等参数的变化引起生态地租显著变化,其中以农林牧渔业生态地租变化最为敏感.如果考虑生态地租的影响,人类消费产品价格将大幅增加,这相当于人类因过度攫取自然资源而应当支付的用于环境治理的高昂代价.     

Monitoring of firefighters exposure to smoke during fire experiments in Portugal

Forest fires represent a serious threat to public security in Europe due to the large burned area. Moreover, smoke pollution due to forest fire events is an important public health issue for the communities directly affected, and particularly for the personnel involved in firefighting operations. Aiming to contribute to the scientific knowledge concerning firefighters exposure to forest fires smoke, data of individual exposure to carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, volatile organic compounds, and particulate matter were obtained during experimental field fires for a group of 10 firefighters equipped with portable “in continuum” measuring devices. Measured values are very high exceeding the Occupational Exposure Standard limits, in particular for peak limit thresholds. These are the first measurements and analysis of firefighter's individual exposure to toxic gases and particles in fire smoke experiments in Europe. However, they already indicate that urgent measures to avoid these levels of exposure are needed.     

Typical patterns of smallholder vulnerability to weather extremes with regard to food security in the Peruvian Altiplano

Smallholder livelihoods in the Peruvian Altiplano are frequently threatened by weather extremes, including droughts, frosts and heavy rainfall. Given the persistence of significant undernourishment despite regional development efforts, we propose a cluster approach to evaluate smallholders’ vulnerability to weather extremes with regard to food security. We applied this approach to 268 smallholder households using information from two existing regional assessments and from our own household survey. The cluster analysis revealed four vulnerability patterns that depict typical combinations of household attributes, including their harvest failure risk, agricultural resources, education level and non-agricultural income. We validated the identified vulnerability patterns by demonstrating the correlation between them and an independently reported damage: the purchase of food and fodder resulting from exposure to weather extremes. The vulnerability patterns were then ranked according to the different amounts of purchase. A second validation aspect accounted for independently reported mechanisms explaining smallholders’ sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Based on the similarities among the households, our study contributes to the understanding of vulnerability beyond individual cases. In particular, the validation strengthens the credibility and suitability of our findings for decision-making pertaining to the reduction of vulnerability.     

Human exposure to PCDDs, PCDFs and dioxin-like PCBs associated with seafood consumption in Korea from 2005 to 2007

Concentrations of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (DLPCBs) were measured in 26 seafoods commonly consumed by the Korean population. The total toxic equivalent (TEQ) concentrations in seafood samples ranged from 0.01 to 6.76 pg TEQ/g wet wt, which were comparable with those found in other countries. The predominant congeners found in seafood samples were 2, 3, 4, 7, 8-PeCDF and 2, 3, 7, 8-TCDF for PCDD/Fs and PCB 118 for DLPCBs. Dietary intakes of PCDD/Fs and DLPCBs from seafood consumption were estimated for various age groups and gender in Korea. The dietary intake of PCDD/Fs and DLPCBs from seafood consumption for the general population was estimated to be 1.23 pg TEQ/kg bw/day, values that are in the range of those reported for other countries. Mackerel, tuna and hairtail contributed to the highest TEQ intakes, which collectively accounted for 66% of the total intake. Among the eight age groups investigated, 3-6 year old children had the highest TEQ exposure, followed by 50-64 years, 30-39 years and <2 years. Considering contributions of seafood consumption to the total dietary intake studies, the dietary TEQ intakes to the general population appear to be below the threshold values by international organizations. The present study may be useful for risk management for dioxins and dioxin-like contaminants in Korean seafood.     

Exposure and vulnerability to climate extremes: population and asset exposure to coastal flooding in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

The paper provides a first quantitative estimate of the potential number of people and value of assets exposed to coastal flooding in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. The study used an elevation-based geographic information system-analysis based on physical exposure and socio-economic vulnerability under a range of climate and socio-economic scenarios. It particularly considered a worst-case scenario assuming even if defences (natural and/or man-made) exist, they are subjected to failure under a 100-year flood event. About 8% of Dar es Salaam lies within the low-elevation coastal zone (below the 10 m contour lines). Over 210,000 people could be exposed to a 100-year coastal flood event by 2070, up from 30,000 people in 2005. The asset that could be damaged due to such event is also estimated to rise from US35 million (2005) to US35 million (2005) to US10 billion (2070). Results show that socio-economic changes in terms of rapid population growth, urbanisation, economic growth, and their spatial distribution play a significant role over climate change in the overall increase in exposure. However, the study illustrates that steering development away from low-lying areas that are not (or less) threatened by sea-level rise and extreme climates could be an effective strategic response to reduce the future growth in exposure. Enforcement of such policy where informal settlements dominate urbanisation (as in many developing countries) could undoubtedly be a major issue. It should be recognised that this analysis only provides indicative results. Lack of sufficient and good quality observational local climate data (e.g. long-term sea-level measurements), finer-resolution spatial population and asset distribution and local elevation data, and detailed information about existing coastal defences and current protection levels are identified as limitations of the study. As such, it should be seen as a first step towards analysing these issues and needs to be followed by more detailed, city-based analyses.     

Seasonal changes in the spatial distribution of cellulolytic activity of soil microflora under conditions of atmospheric pollution

Spatial variation in the cellulolytic activity of the soil microflora during the growing season (from May to September) has been studied in spruce-fir forests exposed to emissions from the Middle Ural Copper-Smelting Plant. It has been shown that the average rate of decomposition of pure cellulose in polluted areas is significantly reduced, with its spatial variation being markedly increased. The spatial pattern of cellulolytic activity remains stable during the growing season, and the integrated parameters of frequency distributions in zones with different pollution levels change with time in the same direction.     

Using stated preference methods to assess environmental impacts of forest biomass power plants in Portugal

As a renewable energy source, the use of forest biomass for electricity generation is advantageous in comparison with fossil fuels; however, the activity of forest biomass power plants causes adverse impacts, affecting particularly neighbouring communities. The main objective of this study is to estimate the effects of the activity of forest biomass power plants on the welfare of two groups of stakeholders, namely local residents and the general population. To this end, we apply two stated preference methods: contingent valuation and discrete choice experiments, respectively. The former method was applied to estimate the minimum compensation residents of neighbouring communities of two forest biomass power plants in Portugal would be willing to accept. The latter method was applied among the general population to estimate their willingness to pay to avoid specific environmental impacts. The results show that the presence of the selected facilities affects individuals’ well-being. On the other hand, in the discrete choice experiments conducted among the general population all impacts considered were valued, in particular odour and fauna and flora impacts. The results of this study stress the importance of performing an equity analysis of the welfare effects on different groups of stakeholders from the installation of forest biomass power plants, as their effects on welfare are location and impact specific. Policy makers should take into account the views of all stakeholders either directly or indirectly involved when deciding crucial issues regarding the sitting of new forest biomass power plants, in order to achieve an efficient and equitable outcome.     

Climate change impacts in Sub-Saharan Africa: from physical changes to their social repercussions

Regional Environmental Change - The repercussions of climate change will be felt in various ways throughout both natural and human systems in Sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change projections for this...     

Potential impacts of early twenty-first century changes in temperature and precipitation on rainfed annual crops in the Central Andes of Peru

Smallholder agriculture in the Central Andes of Peru is based to large extent on rainfed cropping systems, is exposed to climatic risks and is expected to respond sensitively to increasing temperatures and shifts in the precipitation regime. Here, we examine the potential implications of early twenty-first century climate change scenarios for the cultivation of potato, maize, wheat, barley and broad bean, five annual crops that account for 50 % of the cultivated area in the Department of Cusco and Apurímac and provide the dietary backbone for a large share of the local population. The scenarios disclose a regionally coherent increase in temperature of the order of 1 °C but overall only moderate changes in growing season precipitation by 2030. A simple crop model is used to assess the effects of these changes on crop phenology and development. The results show earlier harvest dates, shorter cropping seasons and, in a few cases, a slightly higher risk of planting failure in the near future. This suggests that a better understanding of changes in the precipitation regime at the onset of the cropping season is required to evaluate short-term needs and possibilities for adaptation. However, as the scenarios are highly uncertain, these conclusions should be verified.     

Discrete-choice experiments valuing local environmental impacts of renewables: two approaches to a case study in Portugal

Despite the often mentioned environmental benefits associated with transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources, their use for electricity production has non-negligible negative environmental impacts. The most commonly mentioned in surveys concern different types of landscape impacts, impacts on the fauna and flora, and noise. These impacts differ by size and location of plants, and by source of energy, rendering the policy decision complex. In addition, there are other welfare issues to take into consideration, as positive and negative environmental impacts are not evenly distributed among population groups. This paper proposes to compare the welfare impacts of renewable energy sources controlling for the type of renewable as well as the specific environmental impact by source. To this end, two discrete-choice experiments are designed and applied to a national sample of the Portuguese population. In one case, only individual negative impacts of renewables are used, and in another case, the negative impacts interact with a specific source. Results show the robustness of discrete-choice experiments as a method to estimate the welfare change induced by the impacts of renewable energy sources. Overall, respondents are willing to pay to reduce the environmental impacts, thus making compensation for local impacts feasible. Moreover, the estimations reveal that respondents are significantly sensitive to the detrimental environmental effects of specific renewable energy sources, being willing to pay more to use these sources of energy relative to others.     

Dietary exposure to persistent organochlorine pesticides in 2007 Chinese total diet study

Dietary exposure to persistent organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) was assessed for Chinese populations, using the total diet study (TDS) approach in 2007. Multistage random cluster sampling method was used in this study. 108 composite samples, representative of foods “as consumed” by the Chinese were analyzed for residues of OCPs by a multi-residue method. The result showed that hexachlorobenzene (HCB), dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethane (DDT), chlordane compounds (CHLs), hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) and heptachlor could be detected in, respectively 84%, 39%, 37%, 13% and 5% of all samples. Concentrations of DDT in all samples ranged from undetectable levels to 72.2 μg/kg. Others were minor components in the OCPs profile. The residual levels of OCPs were significantly below the Extraneous Maximum Residue Limits (EMRLs). Based on the 2000 nationwide food consumption survey, the average dietary exposure of the Chinese to DDT, HCH, HCB, CHLs, and heptachlor was estimated to be 0.016, 0.002, 0.009, 0.006, and 0.001 μg/kg body weight per day respectively, showing a significant decrease trend compared with the past. The major food groups contributing to dietary OCPs were aquatic foods, meats, and cereals. The average and high end estimated daily intakes of different OCPs for the Chinese were both lower than the tolerable daily intake (TDI) suggested by authorities indicating low health risk of OCPs dietary exposure among Chinese adults at present. However, the risk of carcinogenicity of the OCPs should be concerned with if the carcinogenicity effects from the exposures to these OCPs were considered.     

Regional challenges in tourist wetland systems: an integrated approach to the Ria Formosa in the Algarve, Portugal

Coastal change and coastal erosion have been a long-existing source of environmental changes. Traditionally, regional changes in wetland systems and their relations to agriculture, industry and urbanization are a major cause for concern. Nowadays, coastal distress has reached even global proportions: the problems of coastal change are strongly linked to the loss of fragile ecosystems, eutrophication and loss of biodiversity. Given that over 70 % of all human activity is in coastal areas, it is clear that many environmental and socio-economic changes occur at a local level and manifest themselves in a spatial context. The physical effect on the geographic morphology is evident in the related consequences for land use. A deep understanding of the changes in land use, and simultaneously in coastal erosion, calls for the integrated monitoring of the most relevant effects in fragile regions. The Ria Formosa wetland system is a unique and very special wetland system in the Algarve (Portugal) and has been integrated in the NATURA 2000 network. The strong symbiosis between nature, agriculture and fisheries, as well as tourism, in the Algarve has led to spatial-ecological synergy. By using coastal recession analysis techniques by means of remote-sensed imagery from 1987, 1989, 2000 and 2007 and by combining this information with available data sets on surface erodibility, a cost surface on multitemporal transitions of land-use classes from the CORINE Land Cover data allows us to assess and integrate a decision-making framework by means of GIS. The novelty of this combined approach to land-use management is the blend of spatial analysis and remote-sensing techniques that share important information on ecosystems at risk. Our findings suggest a growing concern to the area brought by anthropogenic activity. This is studied to a spatial accounting of the distribution of land changes and transitions, where (1) a significant loss of coastal area is witnessed along the Ria Formosa, leading in particular to loss of agricultural land. (2) This loss is underpinned by an increase in leisure facilities to respond to the tourism demand of the region of the Algarve, while landscape metrics suggest that these areas are more volatile for coastal erosion. (3) Simulation through Markov chains on the land use and effects of urban, agricultural, forest and wetland dynamics suggests that by 2026, it is expected to continue to have an increase in urban land, leading to an augmented vulnerability of coastal erosion processes brought by the loss of forest areas which protect from erosion given the root system that directly protects from the existing wave energy and helps sedimentation processes. The above methodology and the availability of data that are freely available render such a combined approach interesting for many other regions of the world, where tourism, coastal change and regional balance are of the utmost importance for sustainable development. The advanced research tools presented here are of critical importance for coastal zone degradation management.