Evolution and frequency (1970–2007) of combined temperature–precipitation modes in the Spanish mountains and sensitivity of snow cover

Snow cover in Spanish mountains is crucial for ensuring water availability in spring and summer months, for the success of winter tourism or for the maintenance of biodiversity in mountain ecosystems. A changing climate may affect the volume of snow cover even in high mountains, where weather conditions are usually favorable for snow accumulation. In this paper, we aim to investigate the evolution (1970–2007) of combined precipitation–temperature modes in the Spanish mountains, and the sensitivity of the snowpack to their occurrence. The climatic database “Spain02” and snow thickness data for Spanish mountains were used for this purpose. Results showed that the frequency of dry-warm and wet-warm days has increased over time in all mountain ranges, while the frequency of the “cold” modes has decreased. The thickness of the snowpack in the Pyrenees has also decreased and its evolution is negatively correlated with the frequency of dry-warm days, and positively correlated with the frequency of dry-cold and wet-cold days. This work constitutes the first approach that relates the evolution of climatic conditions favorable or unfavorable for snow accumulation and the evolution of the snowpack in Spanish mountains.     

Trends in per capita ecological footprint and biocapacity in China 1949–2013

This paper proposes two concepts: the ecological footprint component index(EFCI) and the biocapacity component index(BCCI), based on the ecological footprint(EF) and Shannon entropy approaches. Per capita EFCI and BCCI in China 1949-2013 are analyzed using empirical mode decomposition(EMD). Nonlinear models of per capita EFCI and BCCI in China 1949-2013 are presented and their cycles and predictions from 2014 to 2023 are analyzed. The results over the last 65 years show:(1) EFCI in China has increased constantly with fluctuations, while BCCI has slowly decreased. Their annual change rates are 2.81% and-1.26%, respectively. The increasing EFCI indicates a gradual improvement in China's sustainable development potential; the decreasing BCCI indicates severe environmental and population challenges.(2) The cycles of per capita EFCI have periods of 5.4 and 16.3 years, while cycles of per capita BCCI have periods of 3.6, 13,and 21.7 years. The predictive models indicate that EFCI will first decrease, reaching 0.02725 in2014, and will subsequently increase to 0.03261 in 2021. BCCI will increase, reaching 0.01365 in2014 and 0.01541 in 2022. EFCI and BCCI will reach 0.03037 and 0.01537, respectively, in 2023.Policymakers should ensure that the EFCI and BCCI increase in 2023.     

Temporal and spatial characteristics of dust storms in the Xilingol grassland, northern China, during 1954–2007

Temporal and spatial characteristics of dust storms in the Xilingol grassland of northern China were explored in this paper, based on data of dust storms from the China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System. During the period of 1954–2007, the total dust storm events (DSE) for the Xilingol grassland decreased from the 1960s to the 1990s, and abnormally increased in the 2000s with clear inter-annual and inter-decadal variations as well as spatial differences. The annual mean DSE in the northwest part was generally more than those in the southeast part of Xilingol grassland, with the DSE increasing significantly in the northwestern part of Xilingol grassland in 2000s. The wind speed has a weak correlation with frequency, duration time, and intensity of DSE during the last decades. The influence of spring vegetation condition on the frequency of DSE should be given more attention, especially in the northwest part of the Xilingol grassland. The threshold wind speeds of DSE in different sub-regions of the study area range between 7.0 and 12.8 m/s. Maximum 10-min average wind speeds during DSE tended to decline between 1980 and 2007. The abnormally frequent and strong DSE occurring with lower wind speeds in the 2000s were probably closely related to local vegetation change and serious desertification.     

Trends in rainfall regime over Israel, 1975–2010, and their relationship to large-scale variability

Variations and trends in the rain regime of Israel are analyzed for 1975–2010, when persistent global warming has been observed. Negative trend is observed over the majority of Israel, statistically significant only in the super-arid region. The decrease is significant over the majority of Israel only in the spring, reflecting a shortening of the rainy season, >3 days/decade. The dry spells are becoming longer, significantly in most of the stations. The factors affecting these variations, synoptic systems, large-scale oscillations and global temperature, were studied for extended period, 1953–2010. A simple multiple stepwise regression model applied for the inter-annual rainfall variations indicates that the occurrence of Cyprus lows is the dominant factor and the Mediterranean oscillation index, MOI2, is also a significant factor. In order to reduce the inter-annual noise and reveal inter-decadal variations, the time-series of the rainfall and its potential predictors were smoothed by 11-year window, showing an increase toward the 1990s, followed by a decrease, at a higher rate, onward. Correspondingly, the aridity lines propagated southward till the mid-1990s and then withdrew back, at a larger rate. The large-scale oscillations and the global temperature explain 83 % of the variance on the inter-decadal time-scale, half of it explained by the global temperature alone. The findings of this study support the expected poleward expansion of the Hadley cell due to global warming.     

The spatial and temporal change of cropland in the Scandinavian Peninsula during 1875–1999

Land use and land cover change (LUCC) has emerged as an important issue of global change with significant influences on the geochemical cycle and regional climate change. Understanding the historical changes of land use and analyzing the environmental effects of LUCC make such reconstructions important. Based on historical statistics, this article reconstructs cropland area at the municipality level (härad/kommun) in the Scandinavian Peninsula during 1875–1999. The total acreage of cropland increased 36.84 % during 1875–1930, kept stable during 1930–1950, and decreased 14.25 % during 1950–1999. The croplands of Sweden and Norway both increased before 1950 and changed in different ways during 1950–1999 when the cropland decreased by 19.79 % in Sweden but increased by 9.63 % in Norway. The counties in the south Scandinavian Peninsula owned most of the cropland, with a cropland proportion of over 20 %, and experienced relatively obvious cropland changes. Growth centers with a rate of increase of over 5 % during 1875–1910 were found in Skåne, Stockholm, the Uppsala counties in Sweden, and the area around Oslo county in Norway. The general cropland distribution showed almost no change during this period, which mainly reflects the suitability of the natural conditions for agriculture. Multi-social factors co-impacted land use activities and induced temporal and spatial variations of the cropland. These factors included food supply, world trade, wars, agriculture policies, the economic and political environment, urbanization, and national differences. Compared with the widely used global land use dataset Historical Database of the Global Environment (HYDE), this study shows different cropland change curves before 1950. This article is a case study showing that the hindcasting model of the HYDE dataset has difficulty estimating multi-determined cropland change in the Scandinavian Peninsula, and the empirical study contributes to the improvement of the accuracy of historical land use data at the regional level.     

Changing patterns of the temperature–mortality association by time and location in the US,and implications for climate change

The shape of the non-linear relationship between temperature and mortality varies among cities with different climatic conditions. There has been little examination of how these curves change over space and time. We evaluated the short-term effects of hot and cold temperatures on daily mortality over six 7-year periods in 211 US cities, comprising over 42 million deaths. Cluster analysis was used to group the cities according to similar temperatures and relative humidity. Temperature–mortality functions were calculated using B-splines to model the heat effect (lag 0) and the cold effect on mortality (moving average lags 1–5). The functions were then combined through meta-smoothing and subsequently analyzed by meta-regression. We identified eight clusters. At lag 0, Cluster 5 (West Coast) had a RR of 1.14 (95% CI: 1.11,1.17) for temperatures of 27 °C vs 15.6 °C, and Cluster 6 (Gulf Coast) has a RR of 1.04 (95% CI: 1.03,1.05), suggesting that people are acclimated to their respective climates. Controlling for cluster effect in the multivariate-meta regression we found that across the US, the excess mortality from a 24-h temperature of 27 °C decreased over time from 10.6% to 0.9%. We found that the overall risk due to the heat effect is significantly affected by summer temperature mean and air condition usage, which could be a potential predictor in building climate-change scenarios.     

Mercury and thyroid autoantibodies in U.S. women,NHANES 2007–2008

Associations between positive thyroid autoantibodies and total blood mercury in women were evaluated using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), 2007–2008. Women are at increased risk for autoimmune disorders, mercury exposure has been associated with cellular autoimmunity and mercury accumulates in the thyroid gland. We used multiple logistic regression to evaluate the associations between total bloodmercury and thyroglobulin autoantibody antibody positivity and thyroid peroxidase autoantibody positivity in non-pregnant, non-lactating women aged 20 and older not currently using birth control pills or other hormone therapies, adjusted for demographic factors, menopausal status, nutrient intake and urine iodine (n = 2047). Relative to women with the lowest mercury levels (≤ 0.40 μg/L), women with mercury > 1.81 μg/L (upper quintile) showed 2.24 (95% CI = 1.22, 4.12) greater odds for thyroglobulin autoantibody positivity (p_trend = 0.032); this relationship was not evident for thyroid peroxidase autoantibody positivity. Results suggest an association between mercury and thyroglobulin autoantibody positivity.     

Climate Skepticism in British Newspapers, 2007–2011

Climate skepticism in the UK media has not been a major focus of recent research. This paper aims to help fill the gap by looking at the incidence of skeptical voices in UK newspapers across three periods: 2007, 2009/2010, and 2010/2011. After analyzing more than 3200 articles, it finds that skeptical voices increased their presence markedly across all newspapers and all types of articles in the second period, and maintained a significant presence in many in the third. Uncontested skeptical voices were particularly prevalent in opinion pieces and editorials in right-leaning newspapers in the second. It also finds that skeptical voices or opinions were more likely to be included in pieces written by in-house non-specialist columnists than by environment editors or correspondents. The negative implications of the results for public understanding and the quality of public debate are then explored.     

Climate change and changes in global precipitation patterns: what do we know?

The objective of this paper is to synthesize the large literature recording changing patterns of precipitation in the observed data, thus indicating that climate change is already a reality. Such a synthesis is required not only for environmental researchers but also for policy makers. The key question is the broad picture at major regional and continental levels. Some interesting conclusions for this survey are emerging. For example, the review shows increased variance of precipitation everywhere. Consistent with this finding, we observe that wet areas become wetter, and dry and arid areas become more so. In addition, the following general changing pattern is emerging: (a) increased precipitation in high latitudes (Northern Hemisphere); (b) reductions in precipitation in China, Australia and the Small Island States in the Pacific; and (c) increased variance in equatorial regions. The changes in the major ocean currents also appear to be affecting precipitation patterns. For example, increased intensity and frequency of El Ni?o and ENSO seem associated with evidence of an observed "dipole" pattern affecting Africa and Asia, although this time series is too short so far. But the changing pattern calls for renewed efforts at adaptation to climate change, as the changing precipitation pattern will also affect the regional availability of food supply.     

Decoupling Relationship Between Cultivated Land Occupation by Construction and Economic Growth in China During 1998–2007

Abstract

With the rapid development of economy, the conversion of cultivated land into nonagricultural land occurs more frequently and makes cultivated land sparser. This article based on the decoupling theory takes the situations of cultivated land occupation by construction and economic growth in China from 1998 to 2007 as an example to evaluate and analyze the decoupling. The conclusions are drawn as follows. First, the article applies IU curve and gross method. The decoupling status by gross method, in contrast to that by IU curve, can express the pressure from cultivated land occupation better and is similar to the decoupling status based on the model of decoupling in this article. Second, in most provinces of China, the relationship between the cultivated land occupation by construction and economic growth has transformed from expansive negative decoupling to strong decoupling. In general, the transformation was firstly from economically advanced eastern municipalities under the central government directly, then to economically advanced eastern coastal provinces, and lastly to central, western and northeastern regions. Third, the decoupling status was relative to contemporaneous policies and laws on cultivated land protection and regional development planning. Their effect is obvious and positive.     

Trends in the levels of halogenated flame retardants in the Great Lakes atmosphere over the period 2005–2013

Air (vapor and particle phase) samples were collected every 12 days at five sites near the North American Great Lakes from 1 January 2005 to 31 December 2013 as a part of the Integrated Atmospheric Deposition Network (IADN). The concentrations of 35 polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and eight other halogenated flame retardants were measured in each of the ~ 1,300 samples. The levels of almost all of these flame retardants, except for pentabromoethylbenzene (PBEB), hexabromobenzene (HBB), and Dechlorane Plus (DP), were significantly higher in Chicago, Cleveland, and Sturgeon Point. The concentrations of PBEB and HBB were relatively high at Eagle Harbor and Sturgeon Point, respectively, and the concentrations of DP were relatively high at Cleveland and Sturgeon Point, the two sites closest to this compound's production site. The data were analyzed using a multiple linear regression model to determine significant temporal trends in these atmospheric concentrations. The concentrations of PBDEs were decreasing at the urban sites, Chicago and Cleveland, but were generally unchanging at the remote sites, Sleeping Bear Dunes and Eagle Harbor. The concentrations of PBEB were decreasing at almost all sites except for Eagle Harbor, where the highest PBEB levels were observed. HBB concentrations were decreasing at all sites except for Sturgeon Point, where HBB levels were the highest. DP concentrations were increasing with doubling times of 3–9 years at all sites except those closest to its source (Cleveland and Sturgeon Point). The levels of 1,2-bis(2,4,6-tribromophenoxy)ethane (TBE) were unchanging at the urban sites, Chicago and Cleveland, but decreasing at the suburban and remote sites, Sturgeon Point and Eagle Harbor. The atmospheric concentrations of 2-ethylhexyl-2,3,4,5-tetrabromobenzoate (EHTBB) and bis(2-ethylhexyl)-tetrabromophthalate (BEHTBP) were increasing at almost every site with doubling times of 3–6 years.     

Association between radioactive fallout from 1951–1962 US nuclear tests at the Nevada Test Site and cancer mortality in midwestern US populations

We determined the association between radionuclide deposition levels from nuclear testing at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) and cancer mortality rates in 513 counties of the Midwestern states of Iowa, Illinois, Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska. The 10-day cumulative deposition for 54 radionuclides and 1-year cumulative deposition for 19 radionuclides were determined with isotope ratios based on each test and ¹³¹I levels in the 513 counties obtained from the US National Cancer Institute’s ¹³¹I fallout study. Deposition calculations were done for each test and each radionuclide. Age-adjusted cancer mortality rates for 84 organ-gender combinations for the periods 1950–1959, 1960–1969, 1970–1979, and 1979–1995 were used. Analyses included permutation-based randomization tests for Spearman rank correlation (adjusted for multiple testing). Age-adjusted cancer mortality rates for connective and soft tissue sarcoma, thymus, and female lymphosarcoma and cancer of the colon, brain, thyroid, and uterus were significantly correlated with total fallout and total precipitation during 1951–1957 and 1962. ¹⁸⁷W had the highest cumulative deposition density at 10 days postshot (2783 MBq/m²) among the NTS radionuclides considered. The most significant correlations were observed for 10-day cumulative deposition density of ¹⁸¹W, ¹⁸⁵W, ⁵⁴Mn, ¹⁸⁷W, ²⁴Na, ¹⁸⁵W, ¹⁹⁹Au, ⁷Be, ⁶⁰Co, and deposition density of ¹⁸⁵W, ⁵⁴Mn, ⁷Be, and ⁶⁰Co present at 1-year with mortality for cancers such as female connective and soft tissue sarcoma, male and female thymus, female colon, male and female thyroid, female brain, male multiple myeloma, female breast, and uterine cancer. Significant correlations included isotopic forms of mutagenic metals such as antimony, beryllium, cadmium, cobalt, cesium, manganese, rhodium, selenium, tellurium, and tungsten. The large number of significant correlation tests beyond expectation warrants deeper questions related to the toxicology of fission products and induced radionuclides, validity of kriging procedures, and new studies on core sampling of watersheds and trees in regions assumed to receive the greatest levels of environmental radiocontamination. The text was submitted by the authors in English.     

Evolutionary social and biogeophysical changes in the Amazon,Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna and Mekong deltas

Policy-making in social-ecological systems increasingly looks to iterative, evolutionary approaches that can address the inherent complexity of interactions between human wellbeing, provision of goods, and the maintenance of ecosystem services. Here, we show how the analysis of available time-series in tropical delta regions over past decades can provide important insight into the social-ecological system dynamics in deltaic regions. The paper provides an exploratory analysis of the recent changes that have occurred in the major elements of three tropical deltaic social-ecological systems, such as demography, economy, health, climate, food, and water. Time-series data from official statistics, monitoring programmes, and Earth observation data are analysed to explore possible trends, slow and fast variables, and observed drivers of change in the Amazon, Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna and Mekong deltas. In the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta zone, increasing gross domestic product and per capita income levels since the 1980s mirror rising levels of food and inland fish production. In contrast, non-food ecosystem services, such as water availability, water quality, and land stability appear to be deteriorating. In the Amazon delta, natural and anthropogenic perturbations are continuously degrading key ecosystem services, such as carbon storage in biomass and soils, the regulation of water balance, and the modulation of regional climate patterns. In the Mekong delta, rapid economic development, changing land-use practices, and salinity intrusion are progressively putting more pressure on the delivery of important provisioning services, such as rice and inland aquaculture production, which are key sources of staple food, farm incomes, and export revenue. Observed changes in many key indicators of ecosystem services point to a changing dynamic state and increased probability of systemic threshold transformations in the near future.     

Reconstruction of May–June precipitation in the territory of Bashkiria based on Scots pine tree-ring data from the Bugulma–Belebey Upland

The relationship between Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) tree-ring width and temperature and precipitation was analyzed in pine forests on the Bugulma–Belebey Upland, Bashkiria. A close correlation between tree-ring width and the current spring–summer precipitation was revealed. On this basis, a reconstruction of May–June precipitation in the period from 1860 to 1994 was made.     

Spatio-temporal variations in the technetium-99 content of fucus serratus in the english channel during 1982–1984

Spatio-temporal variations in the technetium-99 content of Fucus serratus samples from the French coast of the English Channel were studied between 1982 and 1984 using various sampling strategies. The lack of constancy in measurements from within the seaweed zone of the same station is revealed by a variation of 18% in the mean contents of samples collected from different sampling levels, a variation which reaches 41% if the extreme values of all results are taken into account. Regional variations over the Channel as a whole show an asymmetric diminution of the ⁹⁹Tc content of the seaweed on the two sides of the liquid effluent discharge outlet from the reprocessing plant at La Hague and this confirms a predominant drift of Channel waters towards the North Sea. Variations with time at three stations during 1983 and 1984 have revealed that there is a time-lag between fluctuations observed in the discharges and those in F. serratus. In addition, a periodic component observed at the Roscoff and Wimereux stations, where the ⁹⁹Tc content of the seaweed varies by a factor of 2–3 between winter and summer periods, could be correlated with seasonal changes both in the metabolic state of F. serratus and in the currents to the south-west of Cap de La Hague. ⁹⁹Tc, which here has no radiological impact on man, would thus appear to be a radioactive label for sea waters and one which is particularly sensitive to variations in environmental conditions.     

Ongoing domestication and diversification in grafted olive–oleaster agroecosystems in Northern Morocco

Regional Environmental Change - This paper analyzes sociohistorical and biological factors that shape olive–oleaster agroecosystems (hereafter OOAs), in northern Morocco and their continuing...     

Comparison of measured multi-decadal rainfall variability with farmers’ perceptions of and responses to seasonal changes in western Uganda

Regional Environmental Change - Smallholder farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are not only dealing with decreased production from land degradation, but are also impacted heavily by climate...