电力系统震后恢复过程及经济损失研究

本文通过专家咨询的方法,调查、分析、研究了我国电力系统的震后恢复过程,给出了电力系统主体部分、分布部分、服务部分震后功能损失的30％、60％和100％得到恢复的时间,计算了损失工作日数和间接经济损失,研究表明,震后恢复时间和损失工作日数均随地震烈度呈对数上升趋势,并且主体部分的震后恢复时间最长,损失工作日数最多,分布部分次之,服务部分的震后恢复时间最短,损失工作日数最少。本文还讨论了电力系统经济损失的分类和计算方法。     

基于功能需求导向的城市综合体震后修复路径优化方法研究∗

城市综合体内部功能繁多,强震作用下综合体结构功能失效会影响城市区域功能的正常运转。建筑震后修复期望综合体内部重要功能优先、快速恢复并投入使用,合理规划其震后修复路径是满足此类结构功能需求的关键。既有研究中建筑震后多采取自下而上的修复路径,未考虑震后功能需求。基于此,提出了一种基于功能需求导向的城市综合体震后修复路径优化方法。考虑综合体具有的多功能特性及不同功能区内构件间的功能相关性特点,建立了基于故障树的功能损失分析模型,并以此为基础结合建筑功能区划分功能修复单元;以各功能的期望修复时间作为功能需求目标,对比功能修复单元的实际修复时间,提出功能需求目标完成率指标;在此基础上建立震后修复路径优化模型,结合遗传算法,形成了综合体震后修复路径优化方法。对某城市综合体开展震后修复路径优化,结果表明：所提方法可高效完成功能需求目标,使重要功能震后快速恢复并投入使用。     

日本兵库县南部地震中生命线系统的震害及其震后恢复

分析、介绍了兵库县南部地震中电力、通信、供水、煤气供用等生命线系统所遭受的破坏、震后采取的恢复重建措施和一个月内的恢复进展情况，总结了不同生命线工程的受灾规律和修复特点，在此基础上对制定城市抗震规范，作好城市抗震救灾工作提出了建议。     

九寨沟7.0级地震受灾区灾后经济韧性测度及恢复效率研究

地震的应对与灾后的恢复重建是政府应急管理的重点。为研究灾后区域经济韧性和恢复效率,利用灰色预测模型、韧性测度模型、超效率SBM模型以及DEA-Malmquist指数模型,对2017年九寨沟7.0级地震四川省内5个受灾县及其周边4个县进行灾后经济韧性指数和经济恢复效率分析。结果表明：九寨沟地震受灾地区经济韧性较高,在震后第2年恢复至震前水平;受灾区经济恢复以第三产业为主,发展其服务业是经济恢复的关键;各县的经济恢复效率在震后第2年开始上升,并逐渐超越震前水平,其中九寨沟相关地区产业结构的调整和升级起到主要作用;技术进步是受灾地区的全要素生产率提升的重中之重。     

房屋震后恢复重建工程资金评估方法

在众多的震后恢复重建工作中,关系到老百姓基本需求的住房恢复重建尤其重要,合理评估房屋震后恢复重建工程资金成为重中之重,为此,本文以地震灾害损失评估结果为基础,充分考虑了震后房屋结构的破坏状况、房屋的结构类型、建筑物抗震设防标准、震后物价变动等因素的影响,提出一种房屋震后恢复重建工程资金评估方法,并以地震案例验证该评估方法的合理性和可行性。     

汶川8.0级地震震后恢复重建隔震技术应用建议

四川"5·12"汶川8.0级大地震造成了大量的人员伤亡和工程结构破坏,引起了巨大的经济损失.震后恢复重建采用何种技术,是关系到在未来地震中是否可以保证工程结构的安全以有效避免人员伤亡和巨大的经济损失的重要问题.通过介绍叠层橡胶隔震技术的特点,结合汶川8.0大地震所造成的3类最主要房屋结构的破坏特点分析,提出了在震后恢复重建时对3类房屋采用叠层橡胶隔震措施的原则性的建议.     

中日地震恢复重建对比研究

近年来,世界范围的巨震频发给人类的正常生产生活以及全球经济的快速发展造成了严重的影响。尤其是破坏性地震发生后,如何快速高效地进行受灾地区的恢复重建,已成为世界各国震后重建决策者和相关学者的研究热点。结合笔者2013年年初赴日参加"Pre-Recovery Planning From Natural Disasters"研修班中,对阪神地震以及"3.11"东日本地震海啸恢复重建的学习和考察内容,总结了两次地震恢复重建的特点以及现状,并对比了我国汶川地震恢复重建的相关数据和案例,分析了中日两国在地震恢复重建中的各自优点与不足,并针对未来我国可能面对的大震恢复重建工作,提出了一些新的思路和方法,对了解中日两国地震恢复重建工作的各自特点,以及未来如何完善现有恢复重建方案的设计和提高相关重建服务的效率,具有一定的理论和实际意义。     

震后医护人员对受害人创伤应激恢复建模分析

创伤后应激障碍是震后受害人常见的心理障碍之一,针对震后受害人创伤应激恢复的干预众多,但是全面考虑创伤后应激障碍潜在症状和影响因素的干预措施不多。因此,震后医护人员对受害人进行创伤应激恢复建模分析,研究创伤后应激障碍潜在症状结构,通过创伤后应激障碍症状量表和医学编制的抑郁量表对受害人进行调查,发现精神痛苦唤起模型拟合度最高,且其外部区分效果较佳,模型中的精神痛苦唤醒症状、麻木性症状同震后受害人抑郁的相关度较高,可作为医护人员判定受害人创伤后应激症状的有效标准;医护人员可考虑人口社会学变量、地震暴露变量、社会支持等社会环境因素和地震后其他心理疾患及心理干预等因素,以团体干预、个体干预等形式对受害人创伤应激进行恢复。     

灾后恢复重建理论研究

灾后恢复重建投资对消除灾害对经济带来的负面影响,恢复受灾地区的经济具有重大的意义.分两个层面对灾害恢复重建理论进行了论述.第一个层面在分析灾害对经济影响的基础上,得出了资本损失不会对区域经济造成重大影响,较小的补偿投资可以弥补潜在灾害预期损失的结论;第二个层面应用索洛模型分析了灾害经济恢复的基本过程.     

恢复生态学理论在西南重大水电工程区生态修复中的应用探讨

干旱河谷生态环境十分脆弱，其生态修复技术是目前国内最困难的。而近年来我国金沙江流域大规模的水电建设使原本脆弱的生态环境进一步退化，造成泥石流、滑坡等地质灾害的活动更加活跃。在大规模的工程建设区，如不进行以恢复生态功能为目标的植被修复与重建，将会导致巨大的生态安全风险，因而工程扰动区生态修复重建技术是国家急需解决的关键问题。结合恢复生态学理论，对西南水电工程所在区的生态恢复问题进行探讨，确立了恢复生态学理论在干旱河谷生态恢复中的地位，为今后的研究工作提供理论依据。     

Earthquake recovery of historic buildings: exploring cost and time needs

Disaster recovery of historic buildings has rarely been investigated even though the available literature indicates that they face special challenges. This study examines buildings' recovery time and cost to determine whether their functions (that is, their use) and their status (historic or non-historic) affect these outcomes. The study uses data from the city of San Francisco after the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake to examine the recovery of historic buildings owned by public agencies and non-governmental organisations. The results show that recovery cost is affected by damage level, construction type and historic status, whereas recovery time is affected by the same variables and also by building function. The study points to the importance of pre-incident recovery planning, especially for building functions that have shown delayed recovery. Also, the study calls attention to the importance of further investigations into the challenges facing historic building recovery.     

Business recovery: an assessment framework

This paper presents a Business Recovery Assessment Framework (BRAF) to help researchers and practitioners design robust, repeatable, and comparable studies of business recovery in various post‐disruption contexts. Studies assessing business recovery without adequately considering the research aims, recovery definitions, and indicators can produce misleading findings. The BRAF is composed of a series of steps that guide the decisions that researchers need to make to ensure: (i) that recovery is indeed being measured; (ii) that the indicators of recovery that are selected align with the objectives of the study and the definition of recovery; and, where necessary, (iii) that appropriate comparative control variables are in place. The paper draws on a large dataset of business surveys collected following the earthquakes in Canterbury, New Zealand, on 4 September 2010 and 22 February 2011 to demonstrate the varied conclusions that different recovery indicators can produce and to justify the need for a systematic approach to business recovery assessments.     

Evaluating post-Katrina recovery in Mississippi using repeat photography

Hurricane Katrina of August 2005 had extensive consequences for the state of Mississippi in the United States. Widespread infrastructure and property damage, massive social dislocation, and ecological loss remain among the many challenges faced by communities as they work towards 'normalcy'. This study employs repeat photography to understand differential recovery from Hurricane Katrina in Mississippi. Revealing change with conventional landscape photography, a process known as repeat photography, is common in the natural sciences. Simply stated, repeat photography is the practice of re-photographing the same scene as it appears in an earlier photograph. Photographs were taken at 131 sites every six months over a three-year period. Each photograph was assigned a recovery score and a spatially interpolated recovery surface was generated for each time period. The mapped and graphed results show disparities in the progression of recovery: some communities quickly entered the rebuilding process whereas others have lagged far behind.     

The time process of post‐earthquake recovery: the Yao'an earthquake in China

Post‐disaster recovery is a constantly changing and developing process. The authors conducted three real‐name follow‐up surveys at 1, 12 and 18 months after the Yao'an earthquake, which had a surface wave magnitude of 6.0. They also calculated recovery ratios at different times and drew post‐earthquake domestic life recovery curves. Based on the recovery curves, the time trajectory of domestic life recovery takes on an approximate S‐type development and change process. The recovery time process of domestic life can be divided into four periods: emergency period (weeks 0–2(5)), early recovery period (weeks 2(5)–24), rapid recovery period (weeks 24–34) and late recovery period (weeks 34–60(80)).     

Quantitative assessment of post‐disaster housing recovery: a case study of Punta Gorda,Florida, after Hurricane Charley

Quantitative assessment of post‐disaster housing recovery is critical to enhancing understanding of the process and improving the decisions that shape it. Nevertheless, few comprehensive empirical evaluations of post‐disaster housing recovery have been conducted, and no standard measurement methods exist. This paper presents a quantitative assessment of housing recovery in Punta Gorda, Florida, United States, following Hurricane Charley of August 2004, including an overview of the phases of housing recovery, progression of recovery over time, alternative trajectories of recovery, differential recovery, incorporation of mitigation, and effect on property sales. The assessment is grounded in a conceptual framework that considers the recovery of both people and place, and that emphasises recovery as a process, not as an endpoint. Several data sources are integrated into the assessment—including building permits, remotely sensed imagery, and property appraiser data—and their strengths and limitations are discussed with a view to developing a standardised method for measuring and monitoring housing recovery.     

Theorizing distributive justice and the practice of post-disaster housing recovery

This paper examines the implications of contemporary conceptions of distributive justice for post-disaster recovery programmes. The question asked in this paper is essentially theoretical: what does a concern with distributive justice entail when developing and evaluating post-disaster recovery programmes? Housing recovery programmes are employed to provide a contextual grounding for the discussion. We present a review of the disaster recovery literature and recent programmes of post-disaster housing recovery to map the ways in which distributive justice have been theorized, interpreted, debated and put into practice. We reflect on what different principles of distributive justice imply for post-disaster recovery programmes in terms of their impact on opportunities for individuals and communities to recover from disasters, and also on their realizing possibilities of advancing justice in the post-disaster society. The paper concludes by outlining a number of dimensions of a pluralist account of distributive justice. Using these dimensions and taking into account tensions within and between them, we attempt to offer a framework for reflecting on and assessing distributive arrangements of disaster recovery programmes.     

Citizen participation in disaster recovery projects and programmes in rural communities: a comparison of the Haiti earthquake and Hurricane Katrina

This study investigates predictors of local participation in recovery projects and programmes following Hurricane Katrina in the United States in 2005 and the earthquake in Haiti in 2010. Using two sets of survey data, it examines whether disaster impacts and social capital (social trust and civic engagement) are associated with disaster recovery participation and compares predictors of such engagement in the two locations. Multivariate logistic regression results reveal that physical injuries, limited community mobility, and government trust increase recovery participation in Haiti (n=278), whereas emotional distress and homeownership decrease it. On the Gulf Coast of the US (n=259), physical injuries and higher civic engagement augment recovery participation, while homeownership and age reduce it. The confounding factors of national contexts and post‐disaster time frames might explain the differences in the results. The discussion addresses the relation between country‐specific vulnerability and recovery participation and suggests implications for policy and practice to improve local citizens’ capabilities to participate in sustainable recovery processes.     

Assessing non‐metro recovery across two continents: issues and limitations

Rural and remote areas of countries such as Australia and the United States are less well‐resourced and often poorer than their city counterparts. When a disaster strikes, therefore, their long‐term recovery can be impeded by being situated ‘over the horizon'. Nonetheless, they are likely to enjoy higher social capital, with ‘locals’ banding together to help restore economic and social life in the wake of a calamitous incident. At the same time, a repeat of extreme events, springing in part from alteration to the landscape through intense human occupation, threatens to derail sustainable recovery processes everywhere, suggesting that renewed emphasis needs to be placed on preparedness. Improved metrics are also required, spanning both pre‐ and post‐disaster phases, to determine effectiveness. Moreover, a focus on the ‘hardening’ of towns offers a better return in limiting damage and potentially hastens the speed of recovery should these places later fall victim to extreme events.     

Social entrepreneurship,co-production,and post-disaster recovery

Post-disaster recovery requires co-production; that is, the inputs of citizens are essential for successful community recovery to occur. Citizens contribute to post-disaster recovery by volunteering, taking on consultative and decision-making roles within their communities, and directly participating in post-disaster reconstruction efforts. Without meaning ful contributions from citizens—the intended beneficiaries—unilateral efforts by public officials and authorities will inevitably fail. This study shows that social entrepreneurs can thus play a critical role in spurring post-disaster recovery by facilitating co-production. It focuses on the role of social entrepreneurs after disasters and centres on one rural village, Giranchaur Namuna Basti in the Sindhupalchowk District of Nepal. Specifically, the study uses the case of the Dhurmus Suntali Foundation's Namuna village project in Giranchaur following the 7.8-magnitude earthquake that struck on 25 April 2015 to examine the pivotal role that social entrepreneurs assume in promoting voluntary activities, community engagement, and participation in post-disaster recovery efforts.     

Towards a natural disaster intervention and recovery framework

Contemporary responses to facilitate long‐term recovery from large‐scale natural disasters juxtapose between those of humanitarian agencies and governments and those of the affected community. The extent to which these mechanisms articulate is crucial to the recovery propensity of the affected communities. This research examines such action by exploring the relationship between the scale of post‐disaster response interventions, the extent of community participation in them, and their impact on community recovery, using a community wealth capital framework. The investigation was applied to a study of the longer‐term community recovery of the island of Vilufushi, Republic of Maldives, which was almost completely destroyed by the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004. Data were analysed through the employment of a pattern match technique and a holistic recovery network analysis. The research framework, informed by the case‐study results, other long‐term recovery evaluations, and existing resilience theory, is reconfigured as a testable roadmap for future post‐disaster interventions.