Organic carbon diminution and estimates of carbon dioxide release from plantation soil

Summary This paper evaluates the rates of organic carbon diminution in the soil under monospecific tree plantations of teak, gmelina, rubber, oil palm, cashew and coffee. The differences between the organic carbon status of their soils and soil under nearby natural rain forest vegetation are compared. Annual rates of organic carbon decrease for the 0–10 cm soil layer, varied from 82.1 kg ha^–1 for cashew to 316.7 kg ha^–1 for oil palm. The tree plantations appear to release more carbon dioxide from the soil into the atmosphere than the natural forest. They therefore, appear to have the potential of contributing towards global warming — a threat they are supposed to mitigate.     

Technical and Institutional Innovation in Agroforestry for Protected Areas Management in the Brazilian Amazon: Opportunities and Limitations

Tropical forest countries are struggling with the partially conflicting policy objectives of socioeconomic development, forest conservation, and safeguarding the livelihoods of local forest-dependent people. We worked with communities in the lower Tapajós region of the central Brazilian Amazon for over 10 years to understand their traditional and present land use practices, the constraints, and decision making processes imposed by their biophysical, socioeconomic, and political environment, and to facilitate development trajectories to improve the livelihoods of forest communities while conserving the forest on the farms and in the larger landscape. The work focused on riverine communities initially in the Tapajós National Forest and then in the Tapajós–Arapiuns Extractive Reserve. These communities have a century-old tradition of planting rubber agroforests which despite their abandonment during the 1990s still widely characterize the vegetation of the river banks, especially in the two protected areas where they are safe from the recent expansion of mechanized rice and soybean agriculture. The project evolved from the capacity-building of communities in techniques to increase the productivity of the rubber agroforests without breaking their low-input and low-risk logic, to the establishment of a community enterprise that allowed reserve inhabitants to reforest their own land with tree species of their choice and sell reforestation (not carbon) credits to local timber companies while retaining the ownership of the trees. By making land use practices economically more viable and ecologically more appropriate for protected areas, the project shows ways to strengthen the system of extractive and sustainable development reserves that protects millions of hectares of Amazon forest with the consent of the communities that inhabit them.     

Net Carbon Sequestration Potential and Emissions in Home Lawn Turfgrasses of the United States

Soil analyses were conducted on home lawns across diverse ecoregions of the U.S. to determine the soil organic carbon (SOC) sink capacity of turfgrass soils. Establishment of lawns sequestered SOC over time. Due to variations in ecoregions, sequestration rates varied among sites from 0.9 Mg carbon (C) ha^?1 year^?1 to 5.4 Mg C ha^?1 year^?1. Potential SOC sink capacity also varied among sites ranging from 20.8 ± 1.0–96.3 ± 6.0 Mg C ha^?1. Average sequestration rate and sink capacity for all sites sampled were 2.8 ± 0.3 Mg C ha^?1 year^?1 and 45.8 ± 3.5 Mg C ha^?1, respectively. Additionally, the hidden carbon costs (HCC) due to lawn mowing (189.7 kg Ce (carbon equivalent) ha^?1 year^?1) and fertilizer use (63.6 kg Ce ha^?1 year^?1) for all sites totaled 254.3 kg Ce ha^?1 year^?1. Considering home lawn SOC sink capacity and HCC, mean home lawn sequestration was completely negated 184 years post establishment. The potential SOC sink capacity of home lawns in the U.S. was estimated at 496.3 Tg C, with HCC of between 2,504.1 Gg Ce year^?1 under low management regimes and 7551.4 Gg Ce year^?1 under high management. This leads to a carbon-positive system for between 66 and 199 years in U.S. home lawns. More efficient and reduction of C-intensive maintenance practices could increase the overall sequestration longevity of home lawns and improve their climate change mitigation potential.     

Soil Changes Induced by Rubber and Tea Plantation Establishment: Comparison with Tropical Rain Forest Soil in Xishuangbanna, SW China

Over the past thirty years, Xishuangbanna in Southwestern China has seen dramatic changes in land use where large areas of tropical forest and fallow land have been converted to rubber and tea plantations. In this study we evaluated the effects of land use and slope on soil properties in seven common disturbed and undisturbed land-types. Results indicated that all soils were acidic, with pH values significantly higher in the 3- and 28-year-old rubber plantations. The tropical forests had the lowest bulk densities, especially significantly lower from the top 10?cm of soil, and highest soil organic matter concentrations. Soil moisture content at topsoil was highest in the mature rubber plantation. Soils in the tropical forests and abandoned cultivated land had inorganic N (IN) concentrations approximately equal in NH₄ ⁺-N and NO₃ ^?-N. However, soil IN pools were dominated by NH₄ ⁺-N in the rubber and tea plantations. This trend suggests that conversion of tropical forest to rubber and tea plantations increases NH₄ ⁺-N concentration and decreases NO₃ ^?-N concentration, with the most pronounced effect in plantations that are more frequently fertilized. Soil moisture content, IN, NH₄ ⁺-N and NO₃ ^?-N concentrations within all sites were higher in the rainy season than in the dry season. Significant differences in the soil moisture content, and IN, NH₄ ⁺-N and NO₃ ^?-N concentration was detected for both land uses and sampling season effects, as well as interactions. Higher concentrations of NH₄ ⁺-N were measured at the upper slopes of all sites, but NO₃ ^?-N concentrations were highest at the lower slope in the rubber plantations and lowest at the lower slopes at all other. Thus, the conversion of tropical forests to rubber and tea plantations can have a profound effect on soil NH₄ ⁺-N and NO₃ ^?-N concentrations. Options for improved soil management in plantations are discussed.     

Application of treated wastewater and digested sewage sludge to obtain biodiesel from Helianthus annuus L. seeds oil

Waste from wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) for Helianthus annuus L. production may be a viable solution to obtain biodiesel. This study achieved two objectives: assess the agronomical viability of waste (wastewater and sludge) from the Alcázar de San Juan WWTP in central Spain for H. annuus L. production; use H. annuus L. seeds grown in this way to obtain biodiesel. Five study plots, each measuring 6 m × 6 m (36 m²), were set up on the agricultural land near the Alcázar de San Juan WWTP. Five fertilizer treatment types were considered: drinking water, as the control; treated wastewater; 10 t ha^?1 of air-dried sewage sludge; 20 t ha^?1 of air-dried sewage sludge; 0.6 t ha^?1 of commercial inorganic fertilizer. Soil, irrigation water, sewage sludge, crop development and fatty acid composition in achenes oil were monitored. The 20 t ha^–1 dose of sewage sludge proved effective to grow H. annuus L. with similar results to those grown with a commercial fertilizer. However, precautions should be taken when irrigating with wastewater because of high salinity and nutrient deficiency. Sunflower oil was composed mostly of linoleic and oleic acid. The remaining fatty acids were linolenic, estearic, nervonic, palmitoleic, and palmitic.     

Ripping Improves Tree Survival and Growth on Unused Reclaimed Mined Lands

There is renewed interest in re-establishing trees on 0.6 million ha of mining-disturbed lands in the Appalachian mountains of Eastern United States. Many coal-mined lands reclaimed to meet requirements of US federal law have thick herbaceous vegetation and compacted soils which impede tree establishment. Mitigation practices were applied on three mine sites and evaluated for success in enabling planted trees to become established. Eastern white pine (Pinus strobus), hybrid poplar (Populus deltoids × Populus trichocarpa), and mixed Appalachian hardwoods were established using weed control only and weed control with subsoil ripping. Trees were measured in October of 2008 after 5 years of growth. Subsoil ripping increased mixed hardwood survival from 43 to 71 %, hybrid poplar biomass index from 1.51 to 8.97 Mg ha^?1, and Eastern white pine biomass index from 0.10 to 0.32 Mg ha^?1. When restoring trees to unused mined sites, subsoil ripping can aid survival and growth to an extent that will result in a valuable forest.     

Seasonality of Soil Erosion Under Mediterranean Conditions at the Alqueva Dam Watershed

The Alqueva reservoir created the largest artificial lake of Western Europe in 2010. Since then, the region has faced challenges due to land-use changes that may increase the risk of erosion and shorten the lifetime of the reservoir, increasing the need to promote land management sustainability. This paper investigates the aspect of seasonality of soil erosion using a comprehensive methodology that integrates the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) approach, geographic information systems, geostatistics, and remote-sensing. An experimental agro-silvo pastoral area (typical land-use) was used for the RUSLE factors update. The study confirmed the effect of seasonality on soil erosion rates under Mediterranean conditions. The highest rainfall erosivity values occurred during the autumn season (433.6 MJ mm ha^?1 h^?1), when vegetation cover is reduced after the long dry season. As a result, the autumn season showed the highest predicted erosion (9.9 t ha^?1), contributing 65 % of the total annual erosion. The predicted soil erosion for winter was low (1.1 t ha^?1) despite the high rainfall erosivity during that season (196.6 MJ mm ha^?1 h^?1). The predicted annual soil loss was 15.1 t ha^?1, and the sediment amount delivery was 4,314 × 10³ kg. Knowledge of seasonal variation would be essential to outline sustainable land management practices. This model will be integrated with World Overview of Conservation Approaches and Technologies methods to support decision-making in that watershed, and it will involve collaboration with both local people and governmental institutions.     

Effects of Stocking Rate on the Variability of Peak Standing Crop in a Desert Steppe of Eurasia Grassland

Proper grazing management practices can generate corresponding compensatory effects on plant community production, which may reduce inter-annual variability of productivity in some grassland ecosystems. However, it remains unclear how grazing influences plant community attributes and the variability of standing crop. We examined the effects of sheep grazing at four stocking rate treatments [control, 0 sheep ha^?1 month^?1; light (LG), 0.15 sheep ha^?1 month^?1; moderate (MG), 0.30 sheep ha^?1 month^?1; and heavy (HG), 0.45 sheep ha^?1 month^?1] on standing crop at the community level and partitioned by species and functional groups, in the desert steppe of Inner Mongolia, China. The treatments were arranged in a completely randomized block design over a 9-year period. Standing crop was measured every August from 2004 to 2012. Peak standing crop decreased (P < 0.05) with increasing stocking rate; peak standing crop in the HG treatment decreased 40 % compared to the control. May–July precipitation explained at least 76 % of the variation in peak standing crop. MG and HG treatments resulted in a decrease (P < 0.05) in shrubs, semi-shrubs, and perennials forbs, and an increase (P < 0.05) in perennial bunchgrasses compared to the control. The coefficients of variation at plant functional group and species level in the LG and MG treatments were lower (P < 0.05) than in the control and HG treatments. Peak standing crop variability of the control and HG community were greatest, which suggested that LG and MG have greater ecosystem stability.     

Assessing Public Preferences for Forest Biomass Based Energy in the Southern United States

This article investigated public preferences for forest biomass based liquid biofuels, particularly ethanol blends of 10% (E10) and 85% (E85). We conducted a choice experiment study in three southern states in the United States: Arkansas, Florida, and Virginia. Reducing atmospheric CO₂, decreasing risk of wildfires and pest outbreaks, and enhancing biodiversity were presented to respondents as attributes of using biofuels. Results indicated that individuals had a positive extra willingness to pay (WTP) for both ethanol blends. The extra WTP was greater for higher blends that offered larger environment benefits. The WTPs for E10 were $0.56 gallon^?1, $0.58 gallon^?1, and $0.48 gallon^?1, and for E85 they were $0.82 gallon^?1, $1.17 gallon^?1, and $1.06 gallon^?1 in Arkansas, Florida, and Virginia, respectively. Although differences in WTP for E10 were statistically insignificant among the three states, significant differences were found in the WTP for E85 between AR and FL and between AR and VA. Preferences for the environmental attributes appeared to be heterogeneous, as respondents’ were willing to pay a premium for E10 in all three states to facilitate the reduction of CO₂ and the improvement of biodiversity but were not willing to pay more for E85 in order to enhance biodiversity.     

Trade-Offs Between Forest Protection and Wood Supply in Europe

Forest protection is one of the main measures to prevent loss of biological and landscape diversity. This study aimed to assess to what extent forests are currently protected and how felling restrictions affect the potential annual wood supply within 27 European Union member states, Norway, and Switzerland and to discuss trade-offs between intensified use of forest biomass and forest protection efforts. Protected forests covered 33 million ha (20 % of total forest area) in 2005, of which 16 million ha was protected for biodiversity and the remaining area for landscape diversity. Within the protected areas, on average 48 % of the volume cannot be harvested in forests protected for biodiversity and 40 % in forests protected for landscapes. Consequently, 73 million m³ (10 % of the annual theoretical potential supply from the total forest area) of wood cannot be felled from the protected forests in Europe. Protected forests do not necessarily affect wood supply given the current demand for wood in Europe. However, if demand for wood from European forests for material and energy use significantly increases, the impact of existing protected forest networks may become significant after all. On the other hand, wood harvesting is allowed to a fair extent in many protected areas. Hence, the question could be raised whether biodiversity and landscape diversity within designated areas are sufficiently protected. Careful planning is required to accommodate both the protection of biological and landscape diversity and demand for wood, while not forgetting all other services that forests provide.     

Natural vs. plantation forests: A case study of land reclamation strategies for the humid tropics

Biomass and productivity were compared in two plantations and in one stand of natural regeneration on similar sites in a premontane moist forest region of Puerto Rico. While initial growth rates of plantation species were higher, after four decades productivity of the natural regeneration plots was equal to or greater than productivity of the plantations. For the first 44 years, aboveground biomass of natural regeneration increased at an average annual rate of 3.8t·ha^–1·yr^–1, but the last year of the study it was 14.7t·ha^–1. Biomass increment of a pine plantation averaged between 8 and 10.5t·ha^–1·yr^–1 except for one year when the rate was much lower, possibly because of hurricane damage. A tropical hardwood plantation averaged close to 4t·ha^–1·yr^–1 for 41 years. It is suggested that in countries where funds for land reclamation are limited, intensive plantations may not always be the best strategy. Natural regeneration or shelterbelt plantations may be suitable alternatives.     

Rubber and pulp plantations represent a double threat to Hainan's natural tropical forests

Hainan, the largest tropical island in China, belongs to the Indo-Burma biodiversity hotspot and harbors large areas of tropical forests, particularly in the uplands. The Changhua watershed is the cradle of Hainan's main river and a center of endemism for plants and birds. The watershed contains great habitat diversity and is an important conservation area. We analyzed the impact of rubber and pulp plantations on the distribution and area of tropical forest in the watershed, using remote sensing analysis of Landsat images from 1988, 1995 and 2005. From 1988 to 1995, natural forest increased in area (979-1040?sq?km) but decreased rapidly (763?sq?km) over the next decade. Rubber plantations increased steadily through the study period while pulp plantations appeared after 1995 but occupied 152?sq?km by 2005. Rubber and pulp plantations displace different types of natural forest and do not replace one another. Because pulp is not as profitable as rubber and existing pulp processing capacity greatly exceeds local supply, considerable pressure exists on remaining upland forests. We recommend for future management that these plantation forests be reclassified as 'industrial', making a clear policy distinction between natural and industrial forestry. Additionally, the local government should work to enforce existing laws preventing forest conversion on marginal and protected areas.     

Understanding and Integrating Local Perceptions of Trees and Forests into Incentives for Sustainable Landscape Management

We examine five forested landscapes in Africa (Cameroon, Madagascar, and Tanzania) and Asia (Indonesia and Laos) at different stages of landscape change. In all five areas, forest cover (outside of protected areas) continues to decrease despite local people's recognition of the importance of forest products and services. After forest conversion, agroforestry systems and fallows provide multiple functions and valued products, and retain significant biodiversity. But there are indications that such land use is transitory, with gradual simplification and loss of complex agroforests and fallows as land use becomes increasingly individualistic and profit driven. In Indonesia and Tanzania, farmers favor monocultures (rubber and oil palm, and sugarcane, respectively) for their high financial returns, with these systems replacing existing complex agroforests. In the study sites in Madagascar and Laos, investments in agroforests and new crops remain rare, despite government attempts to eradicate swidden systems and their multifunctional fallows. We discuss approaches to assessing local values related to landscape cover and associated goods and services. We highlight discrepancies between individual and collective responses in characterizing land use tendencies, and discuss the effects of accessibility on land management. We conclude that a combination of social, economic, and spatially explicit assessment methods is necessary to inform land use planning. Furthermore, any efforts to modify current trends will require clear incentives, such as through carbon finance. We speculate on the nature of such incentive schemes and the possibility of rewarding the provision of ecosystem services at a landscape scale and in a socially equitable manner.     

Field-Level Financial Assessment of Contour Prairie Strips for Enhancement of Environmental Quality

The impacts of strategically located contour prairie strips on sediment and nutrient runoff export from watersheds maintained under an annual row crop production system have been studied at a long-term research site in central Iowa. Data from 2007 to 2011 indicate that the contour prairie strips utilized within row crop-dominated landscapes have greater than proportionate and positive effects on the functioning of biophysical systems. Crop producers and land management agencies require comprehensive information about the Best Management Practices with regard to performance efficacy, operational/management parameters, and the full range of financial parameters. Here, a farm-level financial model assesses the establishment, management, and opportunity costs of contour prairie strips within cropped fields. Annualized, depending on variable opportunity costs the 15-year present value cost of utilizing contour prairie strips ranges from $590 to $865 ha^?1 year^?1 ($240–$350 ac^?1 year^?1). Expressed in the context of “treatment area” (e.g., in this study 1 ha of prairie treats 10 ha of crops), the costs of contour prairie strips can also be viewed as $59 to about $87 per treated hectare ($24–$35 ac^?1). If prairie strips were under a 15-year CRP contract, total per acre cost to farmers would be reduced by over 85 %. Based on sediment, phosphorus, and nitrogen export data from the related field studies and across low, medium, and high land rent scenarios, a megagram (Mg) of soil retained within the watershed costs between $7.79 and $11.46 mg^?1, phosphorus retained costs between $6.97 and $10.25 kg^?1, and nitrogen retained costs between $1.59 and $2.34 kg^?1. Based on overall project results, contour prairie strips may well become one of the key conservation practices used to sustain US Corn Belt agriculture in the decades to come.     

Assessing the potential of native tree species for carbon sequestration forestry in Northeast China

Although the native forests of China are exceptionally diverse, only a small number of tree species have been widely utilized in forest plantations and reforestation efforts. We used dendrochronological sampling methods to assess the potential growth and carbon sequestration of native tree species in Jilin Province, Northeast China. Trees were sampled in and near the Changbaishan Biosphere Reserve, with samples encompassing old-growth, disturbed forest, and plantations. To approximate conditions for planted trees, sampling focused on trees with exposed crowns (dominant and co-dominant individuals). A log-linear relationship was found between diameter increment and tree diameter, with a linear decrease in increment with increasing local basal area; no significant differences in these patterns between plantations and natural stands were detected for two commonly planted species (Pinus koraiensis and Larix olgensis). A growth model that incorporates observed feedbacks with individual tree size and local basal area (in conjunction with allometric models for tree biomass), was used to project stand-level biomass increment. Predicted growth trajectories were then linked to the carbon process model InTEC to provide estimates of carbon sequestration potential. Results indicate substantial differences among species, and suggest that certain native hardwoods (in particular Fraxinus mandshurica and Phellodendron amurense), have high potential for use in carbon forestry applications. Increased use of native hardwoods in carbon forestry in China is likely to have additional benefits in terms of economic diversification and enhanced provision of "ecosystem services", including biodiversity protection.     

Modeling Nutrient Release in the Tai Lake Basin of China: Source Identification and Policy Implications

Because nutrient enrichment has become increasingly severe in the Tai Lake Basin of China, identifying sources and loads is crucial for watershed nutrient management. This paper develops an empirical framework to estimate nutrient release from five major sectors, which requires fewer input parameters and produces acceptable accuracy. Sectors included are industrial manufacturing, livestock breeding (industrial and family scale), crop agriculture, household consumption (urban and rural), and atmospheric deposition. Results show that in the basin (only the five sectors above), total nutrient loads of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) into aquatic systems in 2008 were 33043.2 tons N a^?1 and 5254.4 tons P a^?1, and annual area-specific nutrient loads were 1.94 tons N km^?2 and 0.31 tons P km^?2. Household consumption was the major sector having the greatest impact (46 % in N load, 47 % in P load), whereas atmospheric deposition (18 %) and crop agriculture (15 %) sectors represented other significant proportions of N load. The load estimates also indicate that 32 % of total P came from the livestock breeding sector, making it the second largest phosphorus contributor. According to the nutrient pollution sectors, six best management practices are selected for cost-effectiveness analysis, and feasible options are recommended. Overall, biogas digester construction on industrial-scale farms is proven the most cost-effective, whereas the building of rural decentralized facilities is the best alternative under extreme financial constraint. However, the reduction potential, average monetary cost, and other factors such as risk tolerance of policy makers should all be considered in the actual decision-making process.     

Certified and Uncertified Logging Concessions Compared in Gabon: Changes in Stand Structure, Tree Species, and Biomass

Forest management certification is assumed to promote sustainable forest management, but there is little field-based evidence to support this claim. To help fill this gap, we compared a Forest Stewardship Council (FSC)-certified with an adjacent uncertified, conventionally logged concession (CL) in Gabon on the basis of logging damage, above-ground biomass (AGB), and tree species diversity and composition. Before logging, we marked, mapped, and measured all trees >10 cm dbh in 20 and twelve 1-ha permanent plots in the FSC and CL areas, respectively. Soil and tree damage due to felling, skidding, and road-related activities was then assessed 2–3 months after the 508 ha FSC study area and the 200 ha CL study area were selectively logged at respective intensities of 5.7 m³/ha (0.39 trees/ha) and 11.4 m³/ha (0.76 trees/ha). For each tree felled, averages of 9.1 and 20.9 other trees were damaged in the FSC and CL plots, respectively; when expressed as the impacts per timber volume extracted, the values did not differ between the two treatments. Skid trails covered 2.9 % more of the CL surface, but skid trail length per unit timber volume extracted was not greater. Logging roads were wider in the CL than FSC site and disturbed 4.7 % more of the surface. Overall, logging caused declines in AGB of 7.1 and 13.4 % at the FSC and CL sites, respectively. Changes in tree species composition were small but greater for the CL site. Based on these findings and in light of the pseudoreplicated study design with less-than perfect counterfactual, we cautiously conclude that certification yields environmental benefits even after accounting for differences in logging intensities.     

Effect of Prescribed Fire on Soil Properties and N Transformation in Two Vegetation Types in South China

Prescribed fire is a common site preparation practice in forest management in southern China. However, the effect of fire on soil properties and N transformations is still poorly understood in this region. In this study, soil properties and N transformations in burned and unburned site of two vegetation types (Eucalyptus plantation and shrubland) were compared in rainy and dry seasons after 2 years’ prescribed fire. Soil pH and soil NH₄-N were all higher in the burned site compared to the unburned control. Furthermore, burned sites had 30–40 % lower of soil total phosphorus than conspecific unburned sites. There was no difference in soil organic matter, total N, soil exchangeable cations, available P or NO₃-N. Nitrogen mineralization rate of 0–5 cm soil in the unburned site ranged from 8.24 to 11.6 mg N kg^?1 soil month^?1 in the rainy season, compared to a lower level of 4.82–5.25 mg N kg^?1 soil month^?1 in the burned sites. In contrast, 0–5 cm layer nitrification rate was overall 2.47 mg N kg^?1 soil month^?1 in the rainy season, and was not significantly affected by burning. The reduced understory vegetation coverage after burning may be responsible for the higher soil NH₄-N in the burned site. This study highlights that a better understanding the effect of prescribed burning on soil nutrients cycling would provide a critical foundation for management decision and be beneficial to afforestation in southern China.     

The convective hot air drying of Lactuca sativa slices

The storage of fresh agricultural products is not easy because of its high moisture. Dehydration is an efficient preservation method. The investigation of drying modeling and transfer characteristics are important for selecting operating conditions and equipment design. The drying behavior of Lactuca sativa slices, with the thickness of 2 mm, was investigated at 60.0–80.0°C and 0.60–1.04 m sec^?1 velocity in a convective hot air drier. The mass transfer during the drying process was described using six thin drying models. The convective heat transfer coefficient α and mass transfer coefficient k_H were finally calculated. The results showed that the drying process could be separated into three stages including accelerating rate, constant rate, and falling rate period, which was influenced by hot air temperature and velocity, and the Modi?ed Page model agreed well with the experimental data. When the operating temperature was increased from 60.0°C to 80.0°C, α was found increased from 88.07 to 107.93 W·m^?2·K^?1, and k_H increased from 46.32 × 10^–3 to 68.04 × 10^–3 kg·m^?2·sec^?1·ΔH^?1. With the increase of air velocity from 0.60 to 1.04 m·sec^?1, α was increased from 78.85 to 101.35 W·m^?2·K^?1, and k_H was enhanced from 51.78 × 10^–3 to 65.85 × 10^–3 kg·m^?2·sec^?1·ΔH^?1.     

Info-Gap Decision Theory for Assessing the Management of Catchments for Timber Production and Urban Water Supply

While previous studies have examined how forest management is influenced by the risk of fire, they rely on probabilistic estimates of the occurrence and impacts of fire. However, nonprobabilistic approaches are required for assessing the importance of fire risk when data are poor but risks are appreciable. We explore impacts of fire risk on forest management using as a case study a water catchment in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) (southeastern Australia). In this forested area, urban water supply and timber yields from exotic plantations are potential joint but also competing land uses. Our analyses were stimulated by extensive wildfires in early 2003 that burned much of the existing exotic pine plantation estate in the water catchment and the resulting need to explore the relative economic benefits of revegetating the catchment with exotic plantations or native vegetation. The current mean fire interval in the ACT is approximately 40 years, making the establishment of a pine plantation economically marginal at a 4% discount rate. However, the relative impact on water yield of revegetation with native species and pines is very uncertain, as is the risk of fire under climate change. We use info-gap decision theory to account for these nonprobabilistic sources of uncertainty, demonstrating that the decision that is most robust to uncertainty is highly sensitive to the cost of native revegetation. If costs of native revegetation are sufficiently small, this option is more robust to uncertainty than revegetation with a commercial pine plantation.