ESTIMATING NONPOINT SOURCE POLLUTION LOADS WITH A GIS SCREENING MODEL1

ABSTRACT: The St. Johns River Water Management District (SJR-WMD) is using a Geographic Information System (GIS) screening model to estimate annual nonpoint source pollution loads to surface waters and determine nonpoint source pollution problem areas within the SJRWMD. The model is a significant improvement over current practice because it is contained entirely within the district's GIS software, resulting in greater flexibility and efficiency, and useful visualization capabilities. Model inputs consist of five spatial data layers, runoff coefficients, mean runoff concentrations, and stormwater treatment efficiencies. The spatial data layers are: existing land use, future land use, soils, rainfall, and hydrologic boundaries. These data layers are processed using the analytical capabilities of a cell-based GIS. Model output consists of seven spatial data layers: runoff, total nitrogen, total phosphorous, suspended solids, biochemical oxygen demand, lead, and zinc. Model output can be examined visually or summarized numerically by drainage basin. Results are reported for only one of the SJRWMD's ten major drainage basins, the lower St. Johns River basin. The model was created to serve a major planning effort at the SJRWMD; results are being actively used to address nonpoint source pollution problems.     

Progress, Challenges and Prospects of Eco-Hydrological Studies in the Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang, China

Eco-hydrological research in arid inland river basins has been a focus of geologists and ecologists as it is crucial for maintaining the sustainable development of socio-economy, particularly in ecologically vulnerable areas. Based on the research work carried out in the Tarim River basin of Xinjiang, northwestern China, this paper summarizes synthetically the climate change and associated responses of water resources in the mountainous area, land use and land cover in the oasis, and plants responding to environmental stresses in the desert area of the river basin. Research gaps, challenges, and future perspectives in the eco-hydrological studies of the Tarim River basin are also discussed.     

CONFLICT AND COOPERATION OVER INTERNATIONAL FRESHWATER RESOURCES: INDICATORS OF BASINS AT RISR1

ABSTRACT: In this paper we seek to identify historical indicators of international freshwater conflict and cooperation and to create a framework to identify and evaluate international river basins at potential risk for future conflict. We derived biophysical, socioeco‐nomic, and geopolitical variables at multiple spatial and temporal scales from GIS datasets of international basins and associated countries, and we tested these variables against a database of historical incidents of international water related cooperation and conflict from 1948 to 1999. International relations over freshwater resources were overwhelmingly cooperative and covered a wide range of issues, including water quantity, water quality, joint management, and hydropower. Conflictive relations tended to center on quantity and infrastructure. No single indicator—including climate, water stress, government type, and dependence on water for agriculture or energy—explained conflict/cooperation over water. Even indicators showing a significant correlation with water conflict, such as high population density, low per capita GDP, and overall unfriendly international relations, explained only a small percentage of data variability. The most promising sets of indicators for water conflict were those associated with rapid or extreme physical or institutional change within a basin (e.g., large dams or internationalization of a basin) and the key role of institutional mechanisms, such as freshwater treaties, in mitigating such conflict.     

Regional planning for the siting of local evaporation basins for the disposal of saline irrigation drainage: development and testing of a GIS-based suitability approach

In order to prevent salinisation of the streams of the Riverine Plain of the Murray-Darling Basin in southern Australia, evaporation basins are used to dispose of saline irrigation drainage water. Local on-farm (individual landholder) and community (shared between multiple landholders) basins are increasingly being used to prevent export of salt outside irrigation districts. There are questions regarding the availability of land suitable for these basins and their impact on the surrounding environment. We describe the use of currently available spatial data to assist in regional planning for the environmentally safe use of these basins. A GIS-based approach was developed using suitability criteria expected to minimise the risk of off-site effects of basin leakage. The criteria were proximity to surface water features, urban areas and infrastructure, water table depth and salinity, and soil hydraulic conductivity. The approach was applied to all of the major irrigation districts at 1:250,000, the scale at which data are available over the entire Riverine Plain. Confidence in well-defined parameters such as proximity to infrastructure, urban areas and surface water features was higher than for those involving interpolated point data such as water table depth, salinity, and hydraulic conductivity. Most critically, hydraulic conductivity, the most important factor for basin leakage, was found to be unreliable at this scale. Use of higher resolution data (up to 1:100,000) available for two of the irrigation districts improved confidence in both water table depth and salinity but not in hydraulic conductivity. Despite these limitations, it was found that: (i) on-farm basins can only be used on an opportunistic basis in the eastern irrigation districts, but can be widely used in the western districts; (ii) community basins can be used anywhere there is suitable land; and (iii) the results raise serious questions as to whether there is enough suitable land in the eastern districts to dispose of all of the drainage water that is produced.     

Assessing hydrological impact of potential land use change through hydrological and land use change modeling for the Kishwaukee River basin (USA)

We connected a cellular, dynamic, spatial urban growth model and a semi-distributed continuous hydrology model to quantitatively predict streamflow in response to possible future urban growth at a basin scale. The main goal was to demonstrate the utility of the approach for informing public planning policy and investment choices. The Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) was set up and calibrated for the Kishwaukee River basin in the Midwestern USA and was repeatedly run with various land use scenarios generated either by the urban growth model (LEAMluc) or hypothetically. The results indicate that (1) the land use scenarios generated by LEAMluc result in little changes in total runoff but some noticeable changes in surface flow; (2) the argument that low flows tend to decrease with more urbanized areas in a basin was confirmed in this study but the selection of indicators for low flows can result in misleading conclusions; (3) dynamic simulation modeling by connecting a distributed land use change model and a semi-distributed hydrological model can be a good decision support tool demanding reasonable amount of efforts and capable of long-term scenario-based assessments.     

An analysis of urban development and its environmental impact on the Tampa Bay watershed

Urbanization has transformed natural landscapes into anthropogenic impervious surfaces. Urban land use has become a major driving force for land cover and land use change in the Tampa Bay watershed of west-central Florida. This study investigates urban land use change and its impact on the watershed. The spatial and temporal changes, as well as the development density of urban land use are determined by analyzing the impervious surface distribution using Landsat satellite imagery. Population distribution and density are extracted from the 2000 census data. Non-point source pollution parameters used for measuring water quality are analyzed for the sub-drainage basins of Hillsborough County. The relationships between 2002 urban land use, population distribution and their environmental influences are explored using regression analysis against various non-point source pollutant loadings in these sub-drainage basins. The results suggest that strong associations existed between most pollutant loadings and the extent of impervious surface within each sub-drainage basin in 2002. Population density also exhibits apparent correlations with loading rates of several pollutants. Spatial variations of selected non-point source pollutant loadings are also assessed.     

NUTRIENT MASS BALANCE AND TRENDS,MOBILE RIVER BASIN,ALABAMA, GEORGIA,AND MISSISSIPPI1

ABSTRACT: A nutrient mass balance — accounting for nutrient inputs from atmospheric deposition, fertilizer, crop nitrogen fixation, and point source effluents; and nutrient outputs, including crop harvest and storage — was calculated for 18 subbasins in the Mobile River Basin, and trends (1970 to 1997) were evaluated as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program. Agricultural nonpoint nitrogen and phosphorus sources and urban nonpoint nitrogen sources are the most important factors associated with nutrients in this system. More than 30 percent of nitrogen yield in two basins and phosphorus yield in eight basins can be attributed to urban point source nutrient inputs. The total nitrogen yield (1.3 tons per square mile per year) for the Tombigbee River, which drains a greater percentage of agricultural (row crop) land use, was larger than the total nitrogen yield (0.99 tons per square mile per year) for the Alabama River. Decreasing trends of total nitrogen concentrations in the Tombigbee and Alabama Rivers indicate that a reduction occurred from 1975 to 1997 in the nitrogen contributions to Mobile Bay from the Mobile River. Nitrogen concentrations also decreased (1980 to 1995) in the Black Warrior River, one of the major tributaries to the Tombigbee River. Total phosphorus concentrations increased from 1970 to 1996 at three urban influenced sites on the Etowah River in Georgia. Multiple regression analysis indicates a distinct association between water quality in the streams of the Mobile River drainage basin and agricultural activities in the basin.     

Spatial Calibration and Temporal Validation of Flow for Regional Scale Hydrologic Modeling1

Abstract: Physically based regional scale hydrologic modeling is gaining importance for planning and management of water resources. Calibration and validation of such regional scale model is necessary before applying it for scenario assessment. However, in most regional scale hydrologic modeling, flow validation is performed at the river basin outlet without accounting for spatial variations in hydrological parameters within the subunits. In this study, we calibrated the model to capture the spatial variations in runoff at subwatershed level to assure local water balance, and validated the streamflow at key gaging stations along the river to assure temporal variability. Ohio and Arkansas‐White‐Red River Basins of the United States were modeled using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for the period from 1961 to 1990. R² values of average annual runoff at subwatersheds were 0.78 and 0.99 for the Ohio and Arkansas Basins. Observed and simulated annual and monthly streamflow from 1961 to 1990 is used for temporal validation at the gages. R² values estimated were greater than 0.6. In summary, spatially distributed calibration at subwatersheds and temporal validation at the stream gages accounted for the spatial and temporal hydrological patterns reasonably well in the two river basins. This study highlights the importance of spatially distributed calibration and validation in large river basins.     

Hydrologic Sensitivity to Climate and Land Use Changes in the Santiam River Basin,Oregon

Future changes in water supply are likely to vary across catchments due to a river basin's sensitivity to climate and land use changes. In the Santiam River Basin (SRB), Oregon, we examined the role elevation, intensity of water demands, and apparent intensity of groundwater interactions, as characteristics that influence sensitivity to climate and land use changes, on the future availability of water resources. In the context of water scarcity, we compared the relative impacts of changes in water supply resulting from climate and land use changes to the impacts of spatially distributed but steady water demand. Results highlight how seasonal runoff responses to climate and land use changes vary across subbasins with differences in hydrogeology, land use, and elevation. Across the entire SRB, water demand exerts the strongest influence on basin sensitivity to water scarcity, regardless of hydrogeology, with the highest demand located in the lower reaches dominated by agricultural and urban land uses. Results also indicate that our catchment with mixed rain‐snow hydrology and with mixed surface‐groundwater may be more sensitive to climate and land use changes, relative to the catchment with snowmelt‐dominated runoff and substantial groundwater interactions. Results highlight the importance of evaluating basin sensitivity to change in planning for planning water resources storage and allocation across basins in variable hydrogeologic settings.     

The targeting of rural environmental policies: an assessment of agri‐environmental schemes in the UK

The targeting of environmental policies holds the key to their effectiveness and value for money. In this paper we look specifically at the targeting of the various agri‐environmental schemes likely to be on offer to UK farmers under a reformed Common Agricultural Policy. The manner in which these schemes are targeted—at groups of farmers or areas of land—and the precision with which target groups or target land is identified will be critical in their success or failure. One approach is to target the farming systems thought most environmentally sensitive. This avoids drawing lines on a map and may allow policy makers to channel money into the hands of economically disadvantaged farmers or those vulnerable to policy change. But there is also a need for a more radical and geographically‐targeted approach if problems like soil erosion and aquifer protection—requiring drastic land use shifts within specified areas—are to be tackled effectively. We assess the scope for using existing datasets to identify land that should be targeted under an American‐style Conservation Reserve Programme in the UK.     

Assessment of Environmental Water Demands (EWD) of Forests for Two Distinct Indian Ecosystems

Sustainable use of water and land resources requires that these scarce resources be appropriately allocated among various competing human activities. Worldwide, there is a realization now that sustainable river basin management should be accorded the highest priority, because it deals not only with technical, but also with ecological and socioeconomic aspects, and thus calls for a multidisciplinary and integrated approach. However, most of the policy and planning documents have either remained silent, or have made only implicit reference to the importance of environmental water demand (EWD) and its quantification. Therefore, in the light of its importance, a methodology has been evolved in this article for quantifying EWD for various forested areas in two distinctly different Indian river basins: Brahmani (humid zone) and Sabarmati (dry zone). The article analyzes and discusses EWD estimates at three different spatial levels: river basins, states, and districts within them, and finally presents a comparative analysis of all these results. Findings of the present study will be immensely useful in understanding various ecological issues connected with water resource projects and proposals in these river basins.     

ADAPTATION TO ARIDITY: WATER DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTH AFRICA1

ABSTRACT The Republic of South Africa, legatee of a three-century history of recurring drought, is firmly committed to a program of the optimum use of its water for the national benefit. Its water law encourages centralized planning in that water is held to be the property of the state and is assignable without requiring acquiescence by the basin or province of origin. Interbasin diversions from the Tugela River to the Vaal River Basin, from the Orange River to the Fish and Sundays River Basins, and from several basins to Cape Town are under construction as are facilities for water importation from Lesotho and Angola. For satisfaction of demands beyond the year 2000 the nation may depend increasingly on a shift of its power production and water-using industry from the coal fields of the central plateau to nuclear power development with associated desalination along its coasts. Alternatively, and preferably, it may cooperate in a co-prosperity bloc in Southern Africa aiding the economies of its neighbors by development for mutual advantage of the water and power resources of the Okavango and other northern rivers.     

Multicriteria Evaluation of Water Resources Sustainability in the Context of Watershed Management1

Kang, Min‐Goo and Gwang‐Man Lee, 2011. Multicriteria Evaluation of Water Resources Sustainability in the Context of Watershed Management. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):813‐827. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00559.x Abstract: To evaluate water resources sustainability at the watershed scale within a river basin’s context, the Water Resources Sustainability Evaluation Model is developed. The model employs 4 criteria (economic efficiency, social equity, environmental conservation, and maintenance capacity) and has 16 indicators, integrating them using their relative weights. The model is applied to evaluate the water resources sustainability of watersheds in the Geum River basin, South Korea. A geographic information system is employed to efficiently build a database for the indicators, and the values of the indicators are normalized using the probability distribution functions fitted to the datasets of the indicators. The evaluation results show that, overall, the water resources sustainability of the watersheds in the upper basin is better than other areas due to the good environmental conditions and the dam management policies of South Korea. The analysis of the correlations among the model’s components and the comparison between the results of the model and the Water Poverty Index show that the model can provide reasonable evaluation results for the water resources sustainability of watersheds. Consequently, it is concluded that the model can be an effective tool for evaluating the states of water resource management from the perspective of sustainable development and provide a basis on which to create policies for improving any inadequacies in watersheds.     

Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Boise and Spokane River Basins1

Jin, Xin and Venkataramana Sridhar, 2012. Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Boise and Spokane River Basins. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(2): 197‐220. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00605.x Abstract: In the Pacific Northwest, warming climate has resulted in a lengthened growing season, declining snowpack, and earlier timing of spring runoff. This study characterizes the impact of climate change in two basins in Idaho, the Spokane River and the Boise River basins. We simulated the basin‐scale hydrology by coupling the downscaled precipitation and temperature outputs from a suite of global climate models and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), between 2010 and 2060 and assess the impacts of climate change on water resources in the region. For the Boise River basin, changes in precipitation ranged from ?3.8 to 36%. Changes in temperature were expected to be between 0.02 and 3.9°C. In the Spokane River region, changes in precipitation were expected to be between ?6.7 and 17.9%. Changes in temperature appeared between 0.1 and 3.5°C over a period of the next five decades between 2010 and 2060. Without bias‐correcting the simulated streamflow, in the Boise River basin, change in peak flows (March through June) was projected to range from ?58 to +106 m³/s and, for the Spokane River basin, the range was expected to be from ?198 to +88 m³/s. Both the basins exhibited substantial variability in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and recharge estimates, and this knowledge of possible hydrologic impacts at the watershed scale can help the stakeholders with possible options in their decision‐making process.     

Water Resources Modeling of the Ganges‐Brahmaputra‐Meghna River Basins Using Satellite Remote Sensing Data1

Nishat, Bushra and S.M. Mahbubur Rahman, 2009. Water Resources Modeling of the Ganges‐Brahmaputra‐Meghna River Basins Using Satellite Remote Sensing Data. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1313‐1327. Abstract: Large‐scale water resources modeling can provide useful insights on future water availability scenarios for downstream nations in anticipation of proposed upstream water resources projects in large international river basins (IRBs). However, model set up can be challenging due to the large amounts of data requirement on both static states (soils, vegetation, topography, drainage network, etc.) and dynamic variables (rainfall, streamflow, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, etc.) over the basin from multiple nations and data collection agencies. Under such circumstances, satellite remote sensing provides a more pragmatic and convenient alternative because of the vantage of space and easy availability from a single data platform. In this paper, we demonstrate a modeling effort to set up a water resources management model, MIKE BASIN, over the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna (GBM) river basins. The model is set up with the objective of providing Bangladesh, the lowermost riparian nation in the GBM basins, a framework for assessing proposed water diversion scenarios in the upstream transboundary regions of India and deriving quantitative impacts on water availability. Using an array of satellite remote sensing data on topography, vegetation, and rainfall from the transboundary regions, we demonstrate that it is possible to calibrate MIKE BASIN to a satisfactory level and predict streamflow in the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers at the entry points of Bangladesh at relevant scales of water resources management. Simulated runoff for the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers follow the trends in the rated discharge for the calibration period. However, monthly flow volume differs from the actual rated flow by (?) 8% to (+) 20% in the Ganges basin, by (?) 15 to (+) 12% in the Brahmaputra basin, and by (?) 15 to (+) 19% in the Meghna basin. Our large‐scale modeling initiative is generic enough for other downstream nations in IRBs to adopt for their own modeling needs.     

Effects of Land‐Use and Land‐Cover Change on Evapotranspiration and Water Yield in China During 1900‐20001

Abstract: China has experienced a rapid land‐use/cover change (LUCC) during the 20th Century, and this process is expected to continue in the future. How LUCC has affected water resources across China, however, remains uncertain due to the complexity of LUCC‐water interactions. In this study, we used an integrated Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM) in conjunction with spatial data of LUCC to estimate the LUCC effects on the magnitude, spatial and temporal variations of evapotranspiration (ET), runoff, and water yield across China. Through comparisons of DLEM results with other model simulations, field observations, and river discharge data, we found that DLEM model can adequately catch the spatial and seasonal patterns of hydrological processes. Our simulation results demonstrate that LUCC led to substantial changes in ET, runoff, and water yield in most of the China’s river basins during the 20th Century. The temporal and spatial patterns varied significantly across China. The largest change occurred during the second half century when almost all of the river basins had a decreasing trend in ET and an increasing trend in water yield and runoff, in contrast to the inclinations of ET and declinations of water yield in major river basins, such as Pearl river basin, Yangtze river basin, and Yellow river basin during the first half century. The increased water yield and runoff indicated alleviated water deficiency in China in the late 20th Century, but the increased peak flow might make the runoff difficult to be held by reservoirs. The continuously increasing ET and decreasing water yield in Continental river basin, Southwest river basin, and Songhua and Liaohe river basin implied regional water deficiency. Our study in China indicates that deforestation averagely increased ET by 138 mm/year but decreased water yield by the same amount and that reforestation averagely decreased ET by 422 mm/year since most of deforested land was converted to paddy land or irrigated cropland. In China, cropland‐related land transformation is the dominant anthropogenic force affecting water resources during the 20th Century. On national average, cropland expansion was estimated to increase ET by 182 mm/year while cropland abandonment decreased ET by 379 mm/year. Our simulation results indicate that urban sprawl generally decreased ET and increased water yield. Cropland managements (fertilization and irrigation) significantly increased ET by 98 mm/year. To better understand LUCC effects on China’s water resources, it is needed to take into account the interactions of LUCC with other environmental changes such as climate and atmospheric composition.     

Assessing Water Quality at Large Geographic Scales: Relations Among Land Use,Water Physicochemistry,Riparian Condition,and Fish Community Structure

Data collected from 172 sites in 20 major river basins between 1993 and 1995 as part of the US Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment Program were analyzed to assess relations among basinwide land use (agriculture, forest, urban, range), water physicochemistry, riparian condition, and fish community structure. A multimetric approach was used to develop regionally referenced indices of fish community and riparian condition. Across large geographic areas, decreased riparian condition was associated with water-quality constituents indicative of nonpoint source inputs—total nitrogen and suspended sediment and basinwide urban land use. Decreased fish community condition was associated with increases in total dissolved solids and rangeland use and decreases in riparian condition and agricultural land use. Fish community condition was relatively high even in areas where agricultural land use was relatively high (>50% of the basin). Although agricultural land use can have deleterious effects on fish communities, the results of this study suggest that other factors also may be important, including practices that regulate the delivery of nutrients, suspended sediments, and total dissolved solids into streams. Across large geographic scales, measures of water physicochemistry may be better indicators of fish community condition than basinwide land use. Whereas numerous studies have indicated that riparian restorations are successful in specific cases, this analysis suggests the universal importance of riparian zones to the maintenance and restoration of diverse fish communities in streams.     

Integrated economic-ecological analysis and evaluation of management strategies on nutrient abatement in the Rhine basin

Management of river basins involves the making of informed choices about the desired levels of economic activities and ecosystem functioning in the catchment. Information on the economic and ecological effects of measures as well as their spatial distribution is therefore needed. This paper proposes the following instruments to support decision-making in river basins: (1) the linking of models and indicators to describe the economic and ecological effects of management actions and their spatial distribution and (2) an extended evaluation framework that aims to evaluate management actions on three objectives for sustainable river management. These are cost-effectiveness, spatial equity, and environmental quality. This paper illustrates the potential of these instruments for river basin management by a case-study on nutrient management in the Rhine basin. In this case-study four nutrient abatement strategies are formulated, based on policies of the International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine and the North Sea Commission. These strategies are analysed and evaluated on their contribution to the three management objectives. Results show that none of these strategies score highest on cost-effectiveness, spatial equity and environmental quality simultaneously. It appears that cost-effectiveness is in conflict with environmental quality, whereas spatial equity and cost-effectiveness show quite close correspondence. This means that a trade-off has to be made between costs and spatial equity on the one hand, and environmental standards on the other hand. This paper offers a framework to make these trade-offs more explicit and provides quantitative information on cause-effect relationships, economic and environmental effects and the spatial distribution of these effects for various management strategies. This information can be particularly useful in the development of compromises required to establish international agreement and co-operation.     

Nitrogen input to the Gulf of Mexico

Historical streamflow and concentration data were used in regression models to estimate the annual flux of nitrogen (N) to the Gulf of Mexico and to determine where the nitrogen originates within the Mississippi Basin. Results show that for 1980-1996 the mean annual total N flux to the Gulf of Mexico was 1,568,000 t yr-1. The flux was about 61% nitrate N, 37% organic N, and 2% ammonium N. The flux of nitrate N to the Gulf has approximately tripled in the last 30 years with most of the increase occurring between 1970 and 1983. The mean annual N flux has changed little since the early 1980s, but large year-to-year variations in N flux occur because of variations in precipitation. During wet years the N flux can increase by 50% or more due to flushing of nitrate N that has accumulated in the soils and unsaturated zones in the basin. The principal source areas of N are basins in southern Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio that drain agricultural land. Basins in this region yield 1500 to more than 3100 kg N km-2 yr-1 to streams, several times the N yield of basins outside this region.