关于新时代我国粮食安全观的思考

新时代国内外环境发生了深刻变化,对国家粮食安全战略提出了新要求。重新思考和梳理新形势下粮食安全面临的一系列新问题和新变化,不仅有助于深化对粮食安全问题的系统认知,同时对推动供给侧改革背景下农业产业升级和农村持续发展具有积极意义。目前,我国粮食安全领域陷入产量多、进口多、库存多、补贴多和浪费多的“五多怪圈”。传统农学派、经济学派和资源环境学派等不同学科对粮食安全问题的理解和观点存在较大差异,体现了粮食安全问题的复杂性。粮食安全概念从强调对粮食量的保障和供给、强调市场条件下的个人购买能力,到从基本保障提升到生活品质、强调国家对风险的抵御能力,内涵不断充实和延伸,是社会经济发展的必然选择和要求。现阶段应当从全产业、多尺度、精准化、多维度、多因素视角全方位解读粮食安全的最新内涵。面对新时代,在我国粮食出现阶段性、结构性供大于求的背景下,构建“营养、绿色、多元、开放”的新时代粮食安全观势在必行。     

Role of complex organic arsenicals in food in aggregate exposure to arsenic

For much of the world''s population, food is the major source of exposure to arsenic. Exposure to this non-essential metalloid at relatively low levels may be linked to a wide range of adverse health effects. Thus, evaluating foods as sources of exposure to arsenic is important in assessing risk and developing strategies that protect public health. Although most emphasis has been placed on inorganic arsenic as human carcinogen and toxicant, an array of arsenic-containing species are found in plants and animals used as foods. Here, we 2evaluate the contribution of complex organic arsenicals (arsenosugars, arsenolipids, and trimethylarsonium compounds) that are found in foods and consider their origins, metabolism, and potential toxicity. Commonalities in the metabolism of arsenosugars and arsenolipids lead to the production of di-methylated arsenicals which are known to exert many toxic effects. Evaluating foods as sources of exposure to these complex organic arsenicals and understanding the formation of reactive metabolites may be critical in assessing their contribution to aggregate exposure to arsenic.     

Adapting importation policy to global commodity markets: implications of rice import allocation in Singapore

Structural changes in the global commodity markets have particularly serious implications to the food security of import-dependent countries. Adapting importation policy to that global change is essential given that many commodities are imported to fulfill domestic demand. Using Singapore as a case study, this paper examines rice (Oryza) import allocation for seeking adaptive measures, which have broad implications to import-dependent countries. Its quarterly trade data (between 1999 and 2008) have been analyzed using an almost ideal demand system (AIDS) model. Our findings in respect to expenditure elasticity reveal that Singapore will continue its importation from its current range of suppliers, and add new import sources, fulfilling its national diversification strategy. New sources that located in different regions will also strengthen Singapore’s regional diversification strategy. Both national and regional diversification strategies enable any country to tap into associative import sources when unfavorable events deplete supply from a normally preferred supplier. In addition, the results in respect to own-price elasticity suggest that Thailand is Singapore’s primary preferred source while other exporters are secondary suppliers. Supported by the outputs of cross-price elasticity, secondary sources are substitutable. Within a diversified import portfolio, their competitive relationship gives an import-dependent country a strategic position to hedge against price manipulation and escalation, and to substitute expensive suppliers with cheaper alternatives. For these reasons, an import diversification policy is recommended both as an adaptive measure in response to the global change in commodity markets and, at the same time, as a mean for sustaining food security in import-dependent countries.     

松嫩高平原黑土区耕地利用系统安全影响因子作用机理研究——以黑龙江省巴彦县为例

耕地利用系统安全是保护耕地健康和保障粮食安全的基础。论文以巴彦县为例,采用遗传算法对神经网络模型进行改进,识别耕地利用系统安全的敏感性影响因子,并应用通径分析法,确定单一因子和复合因子对系统安全作用机理。结果表明：①单一因子的作用中土壤类型对耕地利用系统安全的作用强度最大,高程最弱。不同因子对耕地利用系统安全的正负相关关系不同,对系统安全分别起促进和抑制作用;耕地利用系统的其他影响因子对系统安全的共同作用也很大,是不可忽视的重要因子;②各因子存在复杂的制约关系,单一因子和复合因子共同作用是系统安全主要的作用机理,且单一因子和复合因子对系统安全影响的显性特征不同;自然生态因子对系统安全的单一作用、人文因子对系统安全的复合作用机制显著。     

Vulnerability to the health effects of climate variability in rural southwestern Uganda

Vulnerability to the health impacts of climate change will be shaped by the existing burden of ill- health and is expected to be highest in poor and socio-economically marginalized populations. Sub-Saharan Africa, in particular, is considered a highly vulnerable region. This paper analyses the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of rural Bakiga communities in southwestern Uganda to climate-sensitive health risks. The objectives were threefold: i) identify key climate-sensitive, community-identified health priorities; ii) describe and characterize determinants of sensitivity to these health priorities at the individual, community and regional levels; and iii) assess the adaptive capacity of Bakiga. Data collection employed a combination of individual and key informant interviews, biographies, future storylines, and Photovoice. Three key health risks were identified by the study communities (malaria, food insecurity, and gastrointestinal illnesses) – all affected by local climatic and environmental conditions, livelihoods, land use changes, and socio-economic conditions. Adaptation within these communities is dependent on their capacity to reduce sensitivities to identified health challenges among the potential of increasing exposures. Crop diversification, reducing deforestation, expanding of livestock rearing, transfer of traditional knowledge, and access to affordable health services are among potential strategies identified. We demonstrate significant existing vulnerabilities to present day climate-related health risks and highlight the importance of non-climatic processes and local conditions in creating sensitivity to health risks. Our place-based understanding is useful to inform interventions or policies aimed to reduce exposure and sensitivity and support adaptive capacity as the conditions these communities face are consistent with many other sub-Saharan African countries.     

粮食与营养安全研究评述及展望

当前国际粮食安全局势堪忧,大多数发展中国家饥饿、营养素缺乏与营养过剩三重困境并存,实现全球粮食安全与营养安全的双重目标任重道远。本文梳理了95篇文献,旨在理清粮食与营养安全的发展脉络及演变规律,提出中国未来粮食与营养安全的研究重点。首先对全球粮食与营养安全的概念演变进行回顾,指出粮食安全概念由谷物供给总量安全到所有食物数量安全、再到食物质量与营养安全与可持续内涵的动态演化,由单一可供应维度向可供应、可获得性、可利用性、稳定性、可持续性多维度不断拓展。随后,从宏观国家层面梳理中国粮食与营养需求分析及预测、粮食生产能力和进口能力的相关研究,从微观家庭及个人层面评述收入、市场、城镇化、农户农业生产对食物消费及营养的影响。最后,基于未来城乡居民营养均衡发展目标,对中国粮食与营养安全研究的主要趋势和未来研究重点作出展望,指出未来展开对农业生产多样性、作物种植结构调整及作物营养强化,城镇化与市场建设的影响,城市中低收入人群和农村贫困人口营养问题的研究具有重大意义。     

发达国家环境健康损害赔偿模式对中国的启示

随着经济的发展,中国环境污染事故也到了一个高发期.如何构建适合中国国情的健康损害赔偿保障体系,对贯彻落实环保法的污染责任险至关重要.分析了发达国家现有公害病的补偿资金来源与形式,将其分为环境责任险、环境赔偿基金、环境税收、社会捐赠等,并对以上健康损害赔偿模式是否适用于中国进行了分析.研究发现,相比于发达国家,中国目前尚未建立完整的环境污染导致健康损害赔偿的经济保障体系.虽然中国在环境责任险领域已有一定的基础,但真正涉及健康损害的责任险工作却十分薄弱,其它健康损害赔偿的经济保障措施,如用于支付健康损害的环境税收体系、环境赔偿基金、社会捐赠体系等尚不完善.借鉴发达国家的经验,就中国现阶段亟待开展的健康损害赔偿模式进行剖析,以期为探索适用于中国的健康损害赔偿保障体系提供参考.     

城市家庭食物消费差异的实证研究——以郑州市为例

食物消费是人类最基本的消费行为。以中原地区典型城市郑州市为例,通过问卷调查和跟踪称重方法,获取了309户城市家庭的一手食物消费数据,定量分析了现阶段我国典型城市家庭食物消费的差异。研究表明：（1）郑州城市家庭人均食物消费总量为372.32 g/餐。其中,植物性食物的消费量约为动物性食物的3倍。（2）三个样本城区中,惠济区水产品和水果的人均消费量远低于金水区和二七区;收入水平较高的家庭,蔬菜、主食的人均消费量占人均食物消费总量的比例趋于减小,而水产品、奶类和水果的比例趋于增加;人口规模较小的家庭比规模较大的家庭人均食物消费量大。（3）通过与中国居民平衡膳食宝塔推荐的食物摄入量对比发现,郑州城市家庭主食类和蔬菜类消费量合理,畜禽肉和蛋类的消费量过高,粗杂粮、水果、奶类和大豆摄入不足。实证研究为进一步准确获取居民食物消费基础数据提供了参考,并为相关政策的制定提供了科学依据。     

Flower Constancy, Insect Psychology, and Plant Evolution

 Individuals of some species of pollinating insects tend to restrict their visits to only a few of the available plant species, in the process bypassing valuable food sources. The question of why this flower constancy exists is a rich and important one with implications for the organization of natural communities of plants, floral evolution, and our understanding of the learning processes involved in finding food. Some scientists have assumed that flower constancy is adaptive per se. Others argued that constancy occurs because memory capacity for floral features in insects is limited, but attempts to identify the limitations often remained rather simplistic. We elucidate now different sensory and motor memories from natural foraging tasks are stored and retrieved, using concepts from modern learning science and visual search, and conclude that flower constancy is likely to have multiple causes. Possible constraints favoring constancy are interference sensitivity of short-term memory, and temporal limitations on retrieving information from long-term memory as rapidly as from short-term memory, but further empirical evidence is needed to substantiate these possibilities. In addition, retrieving memories may be slower and more prone to errors when there are several options than when an insect copes with only a single task. In addition to memory limitations, we also point out alternative explanations for flower constancy. We then consider the way in which floral parameters, such as interplant distances, nectar rewards, flower morphology, and floral color (as seen through bees' eyes) affect constancy. Finally, we discuss the implications of pollinator constancy for plant evolution. To date there is no evidence that flowers have diverged to favor constancy, although the appropriate tests may not have yet been conducted. However, there is good evidence against the notion that pollinator constancy is involved in speciation or maintenance of plant species integrity.     

Diet-dependent heat emission reveals costs of post-diapause recovery from different nutritional sources in a carnivorous beetle

Restoration of fat stores is metabolic first priority for many insects that emerge from hibernation with depleted fat bodies. To some extent, the animals must be flexible and use whatever foods available irrespective of their nutrient composition. Previously, the carabid beetles Anchomenus dorsalis have been found to refill their fat stores to the same extent over 9 days irrespective of the nutrient composition of their food. However, a higher cost of fat deposition when the food was rich in sugar or protein rather than lipid was indicated by higher total energy consumption. Here, we test the hypothesis of increased metabolic costs of building fat stores from sugar- or protein-rich food than from lipid-rich food by microcalorimetry. We measured the heat emitted from beetles that had fed on sugar-, protein-, or lipid-rich food for 0 (common control), 2, 5, or 10 days. As predicted, heat emission was increased in beetles getting sugar- and protein-rich food compared with those getting lipid-rich food. However, we did not confirm the beetles’ ability to rebuild fat stores from protein-rich food; instead, they increased in lean mass. Overall, sugar-rich food seems to be optimal for post-winter recovery, because it is better than lipid-rich food that allows concurrent rebuilding of fat stores and lean mass, which may benefit preparation for spring migration and reproduction. We propose that overwintered fruits may be highly preferred post-diapause food for these otherwise mostly carnivorous beetles.     

粮食损失研究进展和展望

我国人多地少,粮食安全事关国家安全。因此,在重视增产的同时,需要不断关注粮食损失问题。通过回顾现有粮食损失的研究,总结文献中提出的重要问题,展望未来可能的研究方向。分析表明,现有研究主要集中在：（1）减少粮食损失的目的和效果的研究。包括增加粮食供给、保障国家安全,减少不必要的资源浪费、减轻环境压力,保障粮食质量、保证食品安全,以及增加粮食价值链参与者的利润等。（2）粮食产后各环节损失水平估计及其影响因素研究。 （3）减少粮食损失的方法研究,包括品种改良、教育培训、改进储存设施等。在对现有研究综述的基础上,提出了几点展望：未来的研究应向粮食价值链下游环节拓展,对粮食质量损失程度进行定量分析,并关注粮食的最优损失水平。     

Organic agriculture and ecosystem services

Ecosystem services (ES), such as biological control, pollination, soil formation, nutrient cycling in agriculture are vital for the sustainable supply of food and fibre. The current trends of decline in the ability of agricultural ecosystems to provide ES pose great threat to food security worldwide. This paper discusses the concept of ES and identifies ES associated with agriculture. It discusses the economic and ecological benefits of these ES on farmland in general and its linkages with organic agriculture. The provision of ES on farmland may help to motivate the redesign of small-scale farms using new eco-technologies based on novel and sound ecological knowledge. This has potential to meet the food demand of growing population without damaging human health and the environment.     

Rapid evaluation of arsenic contamination in paddy soils using field portable X-ray fluorescence spectrometry

Arsenic (As) in paddy fields is deteriorating food security and human health through rice ingestion. Rice is the dominant food source of arsenic exposure to half of the world''s population. Therefore, an in situ effective method for As risk evaluation in paddy soil is strongly needed to avoid As exposure through rice ingestion. Herein, we developed a rapid analytical methodology for determination of As in plant tissues using field portable X-ray fluorescence spectrometry (FP-XRF). This method was applied to rice roots in order to evaluate the As contamination in paddy soils. The results showed that rice roots with iron plaques were superior to rhizosphere soils for generating FP-XRF signals, especially for field sites with As concentrations lower than the soil detection limit of FP-XRF (30.0 mg/kg). Moreover, the strong linear relationships of As concentrations between the rice roots and corresponding leaves and grains proved that the rice root, rather than the soil, is a better predictor of As concentrations in rice grains. The research provides an efficient As monitoring method for As contaminated paddy fields by using wetland plant roots with iron plaques and XRF-based analytical techniques.     

Community vulnerability to the health effects of climate change among indigenous populations in the Peruvian Amazon: a case study from Panaillo and Nuevo Progreso

This paper presents the results of an exploratory study working with two Amazonian communities in Peru to identify key climate-related health risks from the perspective of local residents, and characterize how these risks are experienced and managed. The work adopts a vulnerability-based approach and utilizes participatory methodologies to document and examine local perspectives on vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Thirty nine community members were engaged in participatory photography (photovoice), and rapid rural appraisal workshops were conducted with a total 40 participants. Contextual information was obtained from 34 semi-structured interviews with key informants and participant observation during fieldwork. Three climate-related health risks were identified by the communities as pressing issues (food insecurity, water insecurity, and vector-borne disease), all of which are climate-dependent and reported to be being affected by observed changes in climatic conditions. Sensitivity to these risks is high due to social and economic disadvantages which force people to live in suboptimal conditions, partake in dangerous activities, and engage in unhealthy behaviors. Traditional approaches to health and strong social networks are important in moderating health risks, but are placed under increasing stress in the context of local social and economic changes due to larger scale influences, including resource development, deforestation, and changing social relations.     

新时期中国粮食供需平衡态势及粮食安全观的重构

粮食安全是保证任何人在任何时候都能得到为了生存和健康所需要的足够食物。新时期（2015-2050年）我国国内农业资源开发潜力已接近极限,中国粮食安全的总体思路正在面临重构。粮食安全在个人层面是营养安全,在国家层面是国家粮食的可获得能力,国家粮食可获得能力包括粮食生产能力和粮食进口能力,论文从个人营养安全和国家粮食可获得能力视角,对新时期我国粮食供需平衡进行分析,结果表明,在维持现有粮食生产能力的情况下,我国粮食安全保障程度为110.88%~117.49%,粮食具有保障平衡的基本能力,口粮安全保障程度为158.57%~168.02%,口粮具有保障充分平衡的能力,而饲料粮的保障程度只有79.41%~84.15%,保障程度不足。这一有所宽裕的粮食供需平衡态势为允许小幅度市场波动来实现粮食供需动态平衡提供了弹性空间,也为国家粮食政策调整提供了契机和条件。为建立我国新时期粮食安全保障体系,确保粮食供求基本平衡,建议：1）在资源端建立基本农田制度,维持粮食可持续生产能力;2）在生产端逐步发展经营规模较大的专业化粮食生产实体;3）在流通环节充分利用现代网络技术和电子商务模式,培育全国性和区域性现代粮食市场体系,融入国际市场,确保国家粮食安全的有效供应;4）在储备环节完善粮食储备体系,调整粮食储备的结构和规模。     

Food security and global environmental change: emerging challenges

Most research linking global environmental change and food security focuses solely on agriculture: either the impact of climate change on agricultural production, or the impact of agriculture on the environment, e.g. on land use, greenhouse gas emissions, pollution and/or biodiversity. Important though food production is, many other factors also need to be considered to understand food security. A recent international conference on “Environmental Change and Food Security: Bridging Science, Policy and Development for Adaptation” included a range of papers that embraced the multiple dimensions of the food systems that underpin food security. The major conclusion from the conference was that technical fixes alone will not solve the food security challenge. Adapting to the additional threats to food security arising from major environmental changes requires an integrated food system approach, not just a focus on agricultural practices. Six key issues emerged for future research: (i) adapting food systems to global environmental change requires more than just technological solutions to increase agricultural yields; (ii) tradeoffs across multiple scales among food system outcomes are a pervasive feature of globalized food systems; (iii) within food systems, there are some key underexplored areas that are both sensitive to environmental change but also crucial to understanding its implications for food security and adaptation strategies; (iv) scenarios specifically designed to investigate the wider issues that underpin food security and the environmental consequences of different adaptation options are lacking; (v) price variability and volatility often threaten food security; and (vi) more attention needs to be paid to the governance of food systems.     

Livestock-related greenhouse gas emissions: impacts and options for policy makers

Research shows that livestock account for a significant proportion of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and global consumption of livestock products is growing rapidly. This paper reviews the life cycle analysis (LCA) approach to quantifying these emissions and argues that, given the dynamic complexity of our food system, it offers a limited understanding of livestock's GHG impacts. It is argued that LCA's conclusions need rather to be considered within a broader conceptual framework that incorporates three key additional perspectives. The first is an understanding of the indirect second order effects of livestock production on land use change and associated CO₂ emissions. The second compares the opportunity cost of using land and resources to rear animals with their use for other food or non-food purposes. The third perspective is need—the paper considers how far people need livestock products at all. These perspectives are used as lenses through which to explore both the impacts of livestock production and the mitigation approaches that are being proposed. The discussion is then broadened to consider whether it is possible to substantially reduce livestock emissions through technological measures alone, or whether reductions in livestock consumption will additionally be required. The paper argues for policy strategies that explicitly combine GHG mitigation with measures to improve food security and concludes with suggestions for further research.     

中国居民膳食结构升级、国际贸易与粮食安全

目前,中国居民膳食消费水平与结构正在由温饱型向全面小康型转变,形式上表现为由“粮菜型”向“粮肉菜果”多元型和由传统家庭烹饪型向现代便捷型转变。膳食消费结构和水平的改变将影响未来中国的粮食消费量。以中国台湾居民的膳食消费发展规律判断,目前中国大陆居民的膳食消费水平距离富裕水平下的稳定状态整体差距超过50%,肉禽类差距超过一倍。而2018年中国粮食表观自给率已经下降到了85%,大豆自给率仅为15%,虚拟耕地自给率仅为72.6%。在食物消费达到富裕稳定态时,中国不仅需要进口大量的蛋白饲料,还可能需要进口相当数量的能量饲料。基本结论为：仅仅依靠中国本土的农业生产资源已难以维持全面小康水平下的本土农产品需求,发展到富裕水平短缺将会更甚,依赖国际市场是必然需求。从维护生态环境的角度讲,在农产品进口贸易上可多考虑进口动物性产品,适当放开粮食类产品进口数量,自己生产水果、蔬菜等类的农产品。     

Soil contamination with antibiotics in a typical peri-urban area in eastern China: Seasonal variation, risk assessment, and microbial responses

The prevalence and persistence of antibiotics in soils has become an emerging environmental issue and an increasing threat to soil security and global public health. The problem is more severe in areas undergoing rapid urbanization; however, the ecological risks of antibiotics, seasonal variability, and associated soil microbial responses in peri-urban soils have not been well-explored. The seasonal soil sampling campaigns were conducted in a typical peri-urban watershed in eastern China to investigate distribution of antibiotics. The results demonstrated higher mean concentrations of most antibiotic compounds in winter than in summer in peri-urban soils. The seasonal variations of norfloxacin, enrofloxacin, and ciprofloxacin were more significant than those of other antibiotics, due to their higher migration ability and bioavailability. An ecological risk assessment demonstrated that chlortetracycline, ciprofloxacin, doxycycline, and ofloxacin can pose high risks to soil microorganisms. Furthermore, the coexistence of multiple antibiotics obviously poses higher risks than individual compounds. A redundancy analysis demonstrated that tetracyclines mainly showed negative correlations with Firmicutes and Chloroflexi, and quinolones showed obviously negative correlations with Acidobacteria, Gemmatimonadetes, and Nitrospirae, suggesting potential inhibition from antibiotics on biological activities or biodegradation processes. However, the persistence of antibiotics in soil results in a significant decrease in bacterial diversity and a change in dominant species. Our results provide an overview of the seasonal variability of antibiotics and the associated effects on bacterial communities in peri-urban soils. The results can provide scientific guidance on decreasing soil contamination with antibiotics to enhance soil security in similar areas.     

Biofuels production in developing countries: assessing tradeoffs in welfare and food security

In light of the recent rise in global food prices, much of the literature on crop-based biofuel production focuses on the potential impacts on food security. Studies have identified linkages between the usage of feedstocks in biofuel production and international food price increases. In addition, these studies indicate that food prices are expected to continue to rise over the next decade in response to biofuel consumption targets adopted in the U.S. and E.U. Despite these indications, some countries for whom food security and poverty reduction are still an issue have initiated crop-based biofuel development and set forth national blending targets for energy use within the transportation sector. As a result, a broader examination of the tradeoffs concerning welfare and food security related to biofuel development merit consideration. Opportunities to generate income and expand agricultural production technology through biofuel development may provide welfare gains that can improve purchasing power and decrease vulnerability to price shocks for food and energy. In addition, biofuel production schemes that promote alternative energy sources for household uses can improve productivity and health, especially for women and children. To assist with the sector development that maximizes welfare gains, we suggest a number of key indicators that might be useful in constructing a typology that can be applied across countries to characterize their energy needs and better target the types of bioenergy uses that might be best suited for them. In addition, biofuel production models are reviewed and best-practices identified that can expand welfare gains for smallholders and the poor. Through these examples, we demonstrate a basis upon which policymakers might approach the prioritization of their national strategies towards developing renewable energy sources, such that they can have the maximum impact upon important goals of human welfare and development.