地下含水层中过硫酸盐运移数值模拟及其影响半径综合模型研究

过硫酸盐被广泛应用于有机污染土壤和地下水的原位化学氧化(ISCO)修复.过硫酸盐在地下含水层中发生复杂的物理和化学过程,其运移受地下含水层介质和氧化药剂输送技术参数的影响,过硫酸盐影响半径(即地下水中1 g/L过硫酸盐的边界处)预测与评价的技术难度大.本研究围绕ISCO过硫酸盐单孔连续注射情景,采用FEFLOW软件,开展了过硫酸盐在砂质、粉质含水层等代表性场地含水层中运移数值模拟研究.考虑了11个涉及地下含水层介质、氧化剂消耗和输送技术参数的影响,筛选了相关的参数及其组合项,分别表征地下水弥散、过硫酸盐衰减及二者复合作用对含水层中过硫酸盐影响半径的影响.基于模拟结果数据,构建了地下含水层中过硫酸盐影响半径时空演变的综合模型,涵盖了氧化剂注射作用、地下水弥散、过硫酸盐衰减及二者复合作用的影响,其拟合优度R²为0.990(n=2 083),对流-弥散方程的模型外部验证结果 R²为0.992(n=11).参数敏感性分析显示,地下含水层介质的有效孔隙度、过硫酸盐注入流量及注入时间、含水层厚度等参数对扩散阶段过硫酸盐影响半径的影响较大,它们的影响随扩散...     

Life cycle assessment of coated white board: a case study in China

Life cycle assessment was carried out using IMPACT2002+ to estimate the environmental impact of coated white board production, which is common in China. Normalized results showed that the potential impacts of respiratory inorganics, terrestrial ecotoxicity, global warming, and non-renewable energy had a dominant contributions to overall environmental impact. Specifically, emissions from chemical and energy production processes exhibited higher potential impact (more than 80% of the total contribution) on the environment than that of emissions generated from transport, landfill, wastewater treatment, and paper plants infrastructure. Energy recovery from black liquor and energy generation based on natural gas are key factors in reducing overall environmental potential impact. The current paper presents improvements on the environmental performance of a coated white board production site in China.     

Using structured systems analysis to design an integrated system for transport planning and environmental analysis

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基于长短期记忆网络-卷积神经网络(LSTM-CNN)的北京市PM2.5浓度预测

准确预测PM_2.5浓度可以有效避免重污染天气对人体带来的危害。现有方法往往重视本地历史信息对PM_2.5浓度预测的影响,而忽略空间传输的作用。提出了一种长短期记忆网络和卷积神经网络(LSTM-CNN)相结合的方法,利用历史PM_2.5浓度数据、历史气象数据和时间数据,对空气质量监测站未来6 h PM_2.5浓度做出预测。该模型主要由2部分组成:1)基于长短期记忆网络的时序预测模型,模拟本地因素对PM_2.5浓度预测的影响;2)基于一维卷积神经网络的特征提取模型,模拟周边地区污染物的传输与扩散对PM_2.5浓度预测的影响。随机选取了北京市市区及郊区7个监测站在2014-05-01—2015-04-30期间的数据,用于研究和评估LSTM-CNN模型。结果表明:提出的LSTM-CNN模型相比于LSTM模型具有更好的预测效果,且对于郊区站点预测效果的改进略优于市区站点。     

土壤优先流的理论研究和试验分析

在活动流场模型的基础上建立了新的溶质运移控制方程,研究了流场分形特征参数的计算方法;采用4组染色示踪试验资料,分析了活动流场模型模拟土壤水流运动和溶质运移宏观非均匀特征的适用性.模拟分析表明,活动流场模型能较准确地捕捉到土壤中的优先流特别是不稳定流的宏观运动特征;土壤存在大孔隙结构的情况下,水流和溶质将更快的迁移到深层土壤,活动流场模型模拟计算的入渗深度偏小,但大于连续性模型的模拟计算结果;当土壤中的大孔隙结构较少时,活动流场模型模拟预测的土壤含水率分布和溶质浓度分布与实测结果比较一致.     

Analysis of water temperatures in Conowingo Pond as influenced by the Peach Bottom atomic power plant thermal discharge

Numerical surface water hydrodynamic and transport models have been traditionally applied to predict power plant thermal impacts under design conditions. The need to understand both thermal impacts and receiving water biogeochemical impacts and associated ecological and health risks under highly variable transient conditions on seasonal to annual time scales necessitates the use of predictive multidimensional modeling systems. Over the last decade, three-dimensional hydrodynamic and reactive transport modeling has matured from a research subject to a practical analysis technology. Simultaneously, computational requirements for realistic three-dimensional modeling have changed from super computers and high-end workstations to economical commodity personal computers. This paper describes a three-dimensional surface water model system, the Environmental Fluids Dynamics Code (EFDC), capable of addressing a variety of power plant impact issues, including thermal transport, water quality-eutrophication, and toxic contaminant transport and fate, in surface water systems. The development history of the model and its previous applications, as well as its theoretical and computational formulations are presented. Model extensions addressing coupled near- and far-field thermal transport due to high velocity cooling water discharges are discussed in detail. To illustrate the model’s capabilities, preliminary results of thermal transport in Conowingo Pond associated with the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station’s (PBAPSs) discharge are presented and compared with field observations.     

我国东部河流水文水质对气候变化响应的研究

基于A2和B2气候变化情景,采用统计降尺度模型SDSM,将由3个国际上流行的大气环流模式GCMs(Had CM3、CSIRO-Mk2和CGCM2)模拟的未来我国东部长乐江流域的气温和降水,与水土评价模型SWAT相耦合,分析了该流域水文水质对气候变化的响应,并比较了3个大气环流模式模拟结果的异同.结果表明,所有气候情景下,TN浓度有明显的升高趋势;TP浓度有增有减,总体上仍呈微弱增加趋势.河川径流呈微弱减少趋势,而营养物负荷量呈微弱增加趋势,说明该流域水文水质状况受气温升高的影响大于降水微弱增加的影响.另外,在不同的气候变化情景下,年内径流和营养物负荷变化情况存在较大差异.研究结果可为理解河流水环境对气候变化的响应及其应对管理提供理论依据.     

考虑参数和边界条件不确定性的地下水污染随机模拟

为了分析模型参数的随机变化和边界条件的随机变化对地下水溶质运移模型输出结果的不确定性影响,采用蒙特卡洛模拟对一假想算例展开研究,并结合风险评估阐述不确定性分析结果.首先,建立研究区地下水溶质运移数值模拟模型,并综合利用局部灵敏度分析和全局灵敏度分析方法筛选出对模型输出结果影响较大的参数,连同模型的边界条件(第一类边界条件-水头值)一起作为随机变量.然后,利用优化超参数的高斯过程回归(GPR)方法建立模拟模型的替代模型,代替模拟模型完成蒙特卡洛随机模拟.最后,对随机模拟的结果进行统计分析和区间估计,并利用污染物浓度的概率分布函数对1、2、3号观测井进行地下水污染风险评价.结果表明:置信水平>80%时,1,2,3号观测井污染物浓度值的置信区间分别为34.77~35.03,57.74~58.04,100.07~100.69mg/L.此外,1,2,3号观测井为轻度污染的风险分别为6%,100%,100%;为中度污染的风险分别为0%,0%,99.6%;为重度污染的风险分别为0%,0%,0.5%,藉此为地下水污染修复防治和地下水的合理利用提供可靠参考依据.     

Implementing climate variability adaptation at the community level in the Amazon floodplain

The need to design measures for adapting to climate change is increasingly recognized as important and has encouraged research on the role of local ecological knowledge (LEK) in supporting adaptation. Studies of how LEK can help adapt to increasing climate variability remain limited. This article develops an approach through which the process of adaptation can be tracked at a community level. We describe how community residents in the Amazon floodplains incorporate natural hydrologic and ecological processes into their management systems to optimize ecosystem functioning.We describe two case studies where LEK is used as a resource by small-scale fisher-farmers in the Amazon floodplains to adapt to the increasing impacts on their livelihoods generated by changing climate patterns. This article draws on local histories and seeks to identify the critical factors that either facilitate or impede household ability to reduce their vulnerability. We found that the LEK of small fisher-farmers has facilitated the adaptation of a resource management system to optimize production across a broad range of floodplain habitats and conditions. There are, however, significant challenges to operationalizing these approaches, including an absence of systematically collected data on adaptation strategies and outcomes. In addition, local people must be integrated into policymaking processes so their knowledge can contribute to the design of locally appropriate policies for adapting to the impacts of climate related events.     

Resources and waste management in Turin (Italy): the role of recycled aggregates in the sustainable supply mix

The ever increasing quantity of construction and demolition waste (C&DW) in Italy is presently challenging public administrators, which strive to ensure that collection and recycling are sustainably managed and need to understand whether and to what extent recycled aggregates can complement natural aggregates in a sustainable supply mix (SSM) for the construction industry. The paper presents a research aimed at analysing energy and environmental implications of the C&DW recycling chain in the administrative territory of Provincia di Torino in Northern Italy, with 2.25 million inhabitants and yearly generation of 1.8 million tons of C&DW. A combined Geographical Information System (GIS) and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) model was developed using site-specific data and paying particular attention to land use, transportation and avoided landfill: crucial issues for sustainable planning and management. A GIS was used to handle data and information about 89 recycling plants, including technological features, output and physical–mechanical characteristics of recycled aggregate. The LCA methodology was used to identify and quantify energy and environmental loads, under different assumptions relevant to delivery distances, quality of recycled aggregates, local availability of natural aggregates and geographical coverage of market demand. The C&DW recycling chain was proved to be eco-efficient, as avoided impacts were found to be higher than the induced impacts for 13 out of 14 environmental indicators. It was also estimated that the transportation distance of recycled aggregate should increase 2–3 times before the induced impacts outweigh the avoided impacts.     

Modal choice for transportation of hazardous materials: the case of land modes of transport of bio-ethanol in Brazil

Performance evaluation is important in managing freight transport. The transport of certain products, especially those that are hazardous, can have significant financial and socio-environmental impacts. This article presents an application of the modal choice method (MCM) to establish an order of priority among the alternatives considered to carry a determined hazardous product. After a research of the literature on the concepts and development of the proposed method, we consulted experts about their experiences and knowledge, to determine a set of relevant attributes for the evaluation process. We then applied this method to the specific case of the Brazilian bio-ethanol industry, to demonstrate the potential of using the MCM as a tool to support make decisions. We can conclude that highway transport, though the most often used, is not the best compared to trains or pipelines (or combinations of any of the three) from a socio-environmental standpoint. Alternatives with longer pipeline segments are the most suitable to replace the current practice in environmental terms.     

Forest Management for Mitigation of CO2 Emissions: How Much Mitigation and Who Gets the Credits?

Forestry projects can mitigate the net flux of carbon (C) to the atmosphere in four ways: (1) C is stored in forest biomass—trees, litter and soil, (2) C is stored in durable wood products, (3) biomass fuels displace consumption of fossil fuels, and (4) wood products often require less fossil-fuel energy for their production and use than do alternate products that provide the same service. We use a mathematical model of C stocks and flows (GORCAM) to illustrate the inter-relationships among these impacts on the C cycle and the changing C balance over time. The model suggests that sustainable management for the harvest of forest products will yield more net C offset than will forest protection when forest productivity is high, forest products are produced and used efficiently, and longer time periods are considered. Yet it is very difficult to attribute all of the C offsets to the forestry projects. It is, at least in concept, straightforward to measure, verify, and attribute the C stored in the forests and in wood products. It is more challenging to measure the amount of fossil fuel saved directly because of the use of biomass fuels and to give proper attribution to a mitigation project. The amount of fossil fuel saved indirectly because biomass provides materials and services that are used in place of other materials and services may be very difficult to estimate and impossible to allocate to any project. Nonetheless, over the long run, these two aspects of fossil fuel saved may be the largest impacts of forestry projects on the global C cycle.     

Development of a life cycle assessment tool for construction and maintenance of asphalt pavements

The increasing use of recycled materials in asphalt pavements calls for environmental assessment of such impacts as the energy input and CO₂ footprint. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is being accepted by the road industry for such purpose. It aims to quantify and collate all the environmental impacts from the life time of the product or process. This paper reviews relevant LCA resources worldwide, identifies the knowledge gap for the road industry, and describes the development of an LCA model for pavement construction and maintenance that accommodates recycling and up-to-date research findings. Details are provided of both the methodology and data acquisition. This is followed by a discussion of the challenges of applying LCA to the pavement construction practice, and recommendations for further work. In the case study, the model is applied to an asphalt paving project at London Heathrow Terminal-5 (LHR), in which natural aggregates were replaced with waste glass, incinerator bottom ash (IBA) and recycled asphalt pavements (RAP). Production of hot mix asphalt and bitumen was found to represent the energy intensive processes. This is followed by data analysis and sensitivity check. Further development of the model includes expanding the database to accommodate the recycling and maintenance practice in the UK, and taking into account the effect that roadwork has on traffic emissions. The LCA model can be further tested and calibrated as a decision support tool for sustainable construction in the road industry.     

Projected impacts to the production of outdoor recreation opportunities across US state park systems due to the adoption of a domestic climate change mitigation policy

Numerous empirical and simulation-based studies have documented or estimated variable impacts to the economic growth of nation states due to the adoption of domestic climate change mitigation policies. However, few studies have been able to empirically link projected changes in economic growth to the provision of public goods and services. In this research, we couple projected changes in economic growth to US states brought about by the adoption of a domestic climate change mitigation policy with a longitudinal panel dataset detailing the production of outdoor recreation opportunities on lands managed in the public interest. Joining empirical data and simulation-based estimates allow us to better understand how the adoption of a domestic climate change mitigation policy would affect the provision of public goods in the future. We first employ a technical efficiency model and metrics to provide decision makers with evidence of specific areas where operational efficiencies within the nation's state park systems can be improved. We then augment the empirical analysis with simulation-based changes in gross state product (GSP) to estimate changes to the states’ ability to provide outdoor recreation opportunities from 2014 to 2020; the results reveal substantial variability across states. Finally, we explore two potential solutions (increasing GSP or increasing technical efficiency) for addressing the negative impacts on the states’ park systems operating budgets brought about by the adoption of a domestic climate change mitigation policy; the analyses suggest increasing technical efficiency would be the most viable solution if/when the US adopts a greenhouse gas reduction policy.     

Carbon Budget Implications of the Transition from Natural to Managed Disturbance Regimes in Forest Landscapes

Land-use change from an unmanaged to a managed forested landscape in northern forests is associated with a reduction of the area annually affected by natural disturbances (wildfires and forest insects) and the introduction of harvesting as a new disturbance. This study examined the impacts of changes in the disturbance regime-the frequency and type of disturbance-on landscape-level carbon (C) content and fluxes. The Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector was used to assess these impacts in six representative landscapes (100,000 ha each) with a range of disturbance regimes that are characteristic of conditions in coastal British Columbia, the interior of British Columbia, and the eastern boreal forest in Canada. The model was used to simulate ecosystem C fluxes during a period of natural disturbances, a 50-year transition period during which harvesting replaced natural disturbances, followed by 150 years of harvesting. The initial landscape-level biomass C content under natural disturbance regimes in the six example landscapes was 22 to 75% of their potential maximum content which is often used as the reference or baseline case. After 200 years of forest management, the C stored in the landscape plus the C retained in forest products manufactured from harvested biomass was between 58 and 101% of the landscape C content prior to the onset of harvesting. Landscape-level ecosystem C content was found to be affected by changes in the disturbance frequency, the age-dependence of the disturbance probabilities, and the disturbance-specific impacts on ecosystem C content. The results indicate that using the potential maximum C content of a landscape as the baseline always overestimates the actual C release due to land use change. A more meaningful procedure would be to assess the actual differences in landscape-level C content between the natural and the managed disturbance regime.     

Assessment of 316(b) impacts on Ohio River fish populations

Cooling water intake systems have the potential to adversely impact aquatic organisms though entrainment and impingement (impacts referenced under 316(b) of the Clean Water Act), yet the loss of individual fish does not necessarily mean that a population will suffer a significant decrease in number. The results of utility sponsored studies on Ohio River fish populations provide strong evidence of positive changes in the fishery due to water quality improvements. Despite these improvements, a simulation is needed to determine if a reduction in 316(b) fish losses would result in higher or similar fish population levels. Electrofishing data collected at seven power plant locations from 1981 to 1998 will be used for the population assessments. Potential 316(b) impacts on Ohio River fish populations will be modeled using site specific 316(b) data and a Leslie matrix model. The theoretical maximum population for various fish species, with and without 316(b) impacts, will be compared and the probabilistic risk that fish populations will fall below the threshold for species survival will be assessed. Historically, EPA has allowed 316(b) to be implemented on a case-by-case basis, however, the utilities believe that the first step in assessing potential adverse environmental impacts is to assess the condition of the affected fish populations.     

Hydrological eco-service of rubber plantations in Hainan Island and its effect on local economic development

The impacts of economic forest on global environmental change(GEC) are one of the hot issues in environmental study. Based on the 3-year observation data and 40-year climate data, GEC and analysis of the hydrological dynamic characteristics of rubber plantations and estimate of the water balance in the rubber plantations in Hainan Island were made. The results showed that the rainfall intercepted by thecanopy of the plantations accounted for 11.4-5 % of the annual rainfall, the total runoff for 23.71%, the total evaporation and transpiration for 63.24%, the soil moisture storage for 1.6%. Analysis of the 40year rainfall data in the 19 counties of Hainan Island during 1951—1990 showed that the large-scale substitution of the natural vegetation with the rubber plantations had no significant effect on the local rainfall in Hainan Island. The main reasons are (1) 80% of the rainfall in Hainan is brought by typhoons; (2) the proportion of 11.6% rubberplantations in total forest coverage in Hainan is not enough to influence the local rainfall in Hainan Island; and (3) although the rubberplantation is artificial vegetation, it has the similar function to the tropical rain forest. Analysis of the total water resource and I‘otal GDP ofHainan in 1997 showed that the economic benefit resulted from the water resource was 1.0 RMB Yuan/m3 . The value of hydrological of therubber plantation in Hainan was 113.9 million RMB Yuan/a when compared with the tropical rain forest. The paper reaches conclusion that the hydrological eco-service function of rubber plantation has been enhanced after transformed from natural vegetation, which includes the natural service and powerful social service.     

Carbon Budget Implications of the Transition from Natural to Managed Disturbance Regimes in Forest Landscapes

Land-use change from an unmanaged to a managed forested landscape in northern forests is associated with a reduction of the area annually affected by natural disturbances (wildfires and forest insects) and the introduction of harvesting as a new disturbance. This study examined the impacts of changes in the disturbance regime-the frequency and type of disturbance-on landscape-level carbon (C) content and fluxes. The Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector was used to assess these impacts in six representative landscapes (100,000 ha each) with a range of disturbance regimes that are characteristic of conditions in coastal British Columbia, the interior of British Columbia, and the eastern boreal forest in Canada. The model was used to simulate ecosystem C fluxes during a period of natural disturbances, a 50-year transition period during which harvesting replaced natural disturbances, followed by 150 years of harvesting. The initial landscape-level biomass C content under natural disturbance regimes in the six example landscapes was 22 to 75% of their potential maximum content which is often used as the reference or baseline case. After 200 years of forest management, the C stored in the landscape plus the C retained in forest products manufactured from harvested biomass was between 58 and 101% of the landscape C content prior to the onset of harvesting. Landscape-level ecosystem C content was found to be affected by changes in the disturbance frequency, the age-dependence of the disturbance probabilities, and the disturbance-specific impacts on ecosystem C content. The results indicate that using the potential maximum C content of a landscape as the baseline always overestimates the actual C release due to land use change. A more meaningful procedure would be to assess the actual differences in landscape-level C content between the natural and the managed disturbance regime.     

区域尺度土壤环境地球化学基线估算方法及其应用研究

区域土壤环境地球化学基线可为区域尺度地球表层系统中物质变化提供丰富的数据信息,并可据此评价自然和人为活动对土壤环境中化学物质浓度变化的影响.本研究以长江、珠江三角洲地区As、Cd、Hg、Pb、Se等10种微量元素的土壤环境地球化学基线为例,探讨了运用累积频率曲线法和土壤面积加权平均法分别估算了不同类别土壤和整个区域土壤的环境地球化学基线,取得了较为一致的结果.并通过基线比较反映地球化学富集作用和人为活动对土壤环境中微量元素积累与污染的影响.较为典型的是近20年来珠江三角洲地区农业土壤中Cd由过去0.035mg/kg增加到目前的0.13～0.22mg/kg,Hg也由过去的0.045mg/kg增加到目前的0.15mg/kg左右,区域化污染趋势已经显现.