Economic potential of biomass gasification projects under clean development mechanism in India

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol provides Annex-I (industrialized) countries with an incentive to invest in emission reduction projects in non-Annex-I (developing) countries to achieve a reduction in CO₂ emissions at lowest cost that also promotes sustainable development in the host country. Biomass gasification projects could be of interest under the CDM because they directly displace greenhouse gas emissions while contributing to sustainable rural development. However, there is only one biomass gasifier project registered under the CDM so far. In this study, an attempt has been made to assess the economic potential of biomass gasifier-based projects under CDM in India. The preliminary estimates based on this study indicate that there is a vast theoretical potential of CO₂ mitigation by the use of biomass gasification projects in India.The results indicate that in India around 74 million tonne agricultural residues as a biomass feedstock can be used for energy applications on an annual basis. In terms of the plant capacity the potential of biomass gasification projects could reach 31 GW that can generate more than 67 TWh electricity annually. The annual CER potential of biomass gasification projects in India could theoretically reach 58 million tonnes. Under more realistic assumptions about diffusion of biomass gasification projects based on past experiences with the government-run programmes, annual CER volumes by 2012 could reach 0.4–1.0 million and 1.0–3.0 million by 2020. The projections based on the past diffusion trend indicate that in India, even with highly favorable assumptions, the dissemination of biomass gasification projects is not likely to reach its maximum estimated potential in another 50 years. CDM could help to achieve the maximum utilization potential more rapidly as compared to the current diffusion trend if supportive policies are introduced.     

The elephant in the room – A comparative study of uncertainties in carbon offsets

The clean development mechanism (CDM) is a flexible mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol, which makes it possible for developed countries to offset their emissions of greenhouse gases through investing in climate change mitigation projects in developing countries. When the mitigation benefit of a CDM project is quantified, measurable uncertainties arise that can be minimised using established statistical methods. In addition, some unmeasurable uncertainties arise, such as the rebound effect of demand-side energy efficiency projects. Many project types related to land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) have been excluded from the CDM in part because of the high degree of statistical uncertainty in measurements of the carbon sink and risk of non-permanence. However, recent discussions within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have opened up for the possibility of including more LULUCF activities in the future. In the light of this discussion, we highlight different aspects of uncertainties in LULUCF projects (e.g. the risk of non-permanence and the size of the carbon sink) in relation to other CDM project categories such as renewables and demand-side energy efficiency. We quantify the uncertainties, compare the magnitudes of the uncertainties in different project categories and conclude that uncertainties could be just as significant in CDM project categories such as renewables as in LULUCF projects. The CDM is a useful way of including and engaging developing countries in climate change mitigation and could be a good source of financial support for LULUCF mitigation activities. Given their enormous mitigation potential, we argue that additional LULUCF activities should be included in the CDM and other future climate policy instruments. Furthermore, we note that Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) are currently being submitted to the UNFCCC by developing countries. Unfortunately, the under-representation of LULUCF in comparison to its potential is evident in the NAMAs submitted so far, just as it has been in the CDM. Capacity building under the CDM may influence NAMAs and there is a risk of transferring the view on uncertainties to NAMAs.     

我国小型CDM项目开发障碍及其对策研究

2005年《京都议定书》生效以来,我国一直是全球CDM开发的重要国家之一,在CDM开发方面取得显著成就。但是由于信息流通、项目规模以及市场因素的影响,我国小型CDM项目在开发范围和深度方面都存在显著的不足。在对以上原因进行分析的基础上,本文认为采取多个小项目打包开发、以地区为单位整体开发以及促进CDM信息交流等方法可以解决以上阻碍小项目开发的因素,促进我国CDM健康发展。     

National forest policy as a platform for biosphere carbon management: the case of community forestry in Cameroon

Little attention has been given to the development of national policies relevant for the uptake, development and implementation of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects. In this paper we examine the compatibility between forestry and related policy provisions in Cameroon and the CDM provisions for Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF). For each CDM requirement such as eligibility, additionality, impact assessment and sustainable development, relevant national forestry policy questions are identified. These relevant policy questions are applied to community forestry policy instruments in Cameroon to analyse the likelihood that they can enhance or inhibit the uptake and implementation of biosphere carbon projects. We found that choosing a single crown cover value (from between 10 and 30%) presented a serious dilemma for Cameroon given its diverse vegetation cover. Adopting any single value within this range is unlikely to optimize national carbon management potential. The current forest institutional and regulatory policy framework in Cameroon is inadequate for promoting carbon forestry under current CDM rules. We conclude that national policy in Cameroon would need to recognise the need for and adopt a pro-active approach for biosphere carbon management, engaging in institutional development, integrated planning, project development support and providing adequate regulatory frameworks to enhance sustainable development through CDM projects. The need for CDM/Kyoto capacity building support for proactive national and local policy development is highlighted.     

CDM host country institution building

Contrary to earlier forecasts, the global greenhouse gas market will initially be characterised by low prices and a strong competition between the different Kyoto Mechanisms. The CDM involves higher transaction costs than the other mechanisms and has lost a considerable share of its ‘early start’ advantage due to the continuous delays in defining the CDM rules on the international level. Host countries will have to compete intensively for CDM investments. Thus the development of effective institutions is crucial to reap benefits from this market, especially if a unilateral strategy is chosen. Countries should develop approval criteria and sectoral priorities in a broad stakeholder consultation. Moreover, capacity building of local actors, information exchange as well as marketing has to be organised. Experience from several countries shows that clear competencies are crucial to get investor confidence. Long-term professional staff is also an important asset. Fights between ministries will scare off investors. The optimum institution will be a CDM Office that is independent but has full approval powers. A second-best solution is a two-tiered system. A CDM Board with representatives of ministries would define criteria and priorities whereas a CDM Secretariat would evaluate (and possibly approve) project proposals and do outreach and marketing. Small countries would preferably use the existing focal point of the UNFCCC and flexibly involve consultants if project proposalscome in. Even under an optimal institutional structure, CDM projects will only be implemented if financing and contractual issues can be resolved. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

中国CDM市场现状分析和管制建议

《京都议定书》的生效、CDM项目活动在全球的广泛开展为发展中国家寻求经济和环境的共赢发展带来了前所未有的机遇,中国的经济正处于高速发展中,在未来的国际CDM市场中必将扮演重要的角色。虽然我国在开发CDM项目、促进温室气体减排方面做出了突出的贡献,但仍然存在项目分布不合理、信息不对称、偏离方法学等明显问题。面对未来可以预见的国际环境压力,我们应当加强管制,充分利用好CDM的机遇。在借鉴印度、巴西等其他发展中国家的做法、总结自身经验和不足的基础上,提出CDM项目的管制建议,在政策引导、宣传培训、项目选择和方法学应用等方面调整CDM项目的发展策略,为我国的参与CDM带来更为巨大的商机和活力。     

Millennium development goals and clean development: synergies in the Pacific

This paper addresses synergies between the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), and considers how the CDM can facilitate the MDGs in Pacific Island Countries (PICs). To date, only 6 CDM projects have been registered in PICs, highlighting the ‘lose-lose’ business case that applies to this type of project development. This paper identifies constraints on and opportunities for CDM project development in PICs, and proposes a range of specific policy reform measures that could alter existing negative investment profiles. Key findings are that small-scale agricultural projects providing renewable energy from existing sources of biomass (currently seen as waste) are ideal candidates for CDM investment in PICs, and that the single most important reform to facilitate CDM activity and contribute to achieving the MDGs would be the implementation of a regional approach to CDM administration, in which a regional body became the designated CDM Authority for all states in the region. This would offset investment risk, improve governance transparency, and facilitate a targeted approach to sustainable development activities in the Pacific region.     

The impact of the Clean Development Mechanism on developing countries’ commitment to mitigate climate change and its implications for the future

The objective of this paper is to examine the mitigation of climate change using the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) from the perspective of developing countries. The effects of the CDM on developing countries’ efforts to reduce greenhouse gases (GHGs) pledged under the Paris Agreement (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [UNFCCC], 21st Conference of the Parties, Paris, France) are investigated. Data analysis reveals that the intensive hosting of CDM projects and the resultant higher marginal abatement costs led to fewer efforts by developing countries to mitigate climate change. A theoretical model from the literature of “low-hanging fruits” is applied to determine if rising prices of the CDM can be expected in the future. The results indicate that the benefits for developing countries must increase so as to keep the CDM attractive for them in an environment where they also have reduction commitments. To further ensure the effectiveness of the CDM under the Paris Agreement, policy should ensure that developing countries actually charge higher prices and, at the same time, contribute adequately to the global goal of GHG reductions. To this end, developing countries should be permitted to demand benefits that lie outside the current scope of the CDM, and non-compliance with their climate targets should also be sanctioned. In addition, fostering sustainable development should become more attractive for developed countries without the CDM, e.g., through sustainability labels, so as to reduce the trade-off for developing countries between the benefits of the CDM and compliance with their commitments to mitigate climate change.

     

能源供应安全视角下中印生物质能源利用的比较

中国和印度是世界上两个人口最多的国家,中印两国作为世界上两个能源消费大国,如何满足众多人口和经济快速增长对能源的需求,以及提供安全的能源供应是中国和印度都在考虑并试图解决的紧迫问题,分析印度的生物能源利用政策对我国有重要的现实意义和参考价值。我国在1993年成为石油净进口国,1994年我国进口的原油仅为290×104t,进口依赖度为1.9%。到2009年我国石油净进口量为21 888.5×104t,进口原油的依赖度上升到了52.5%。我国日益增加的对国际石油市场的依赖对我国能源安全供应构成了极大的风险和挑战。我国在"十一五"期间,在生物质能源的利用上取得了很大的成绩。但还存在一些问题,主要问题是原料来源和成本不稳定、缺乏统筹规划、发电上网制度不完善、相关政策配套措施和实施细则不完善等因素在一定程度上影响了生物质能产业的发展。印度政府积极支持的生物质利用技术,包括利用清洁发展机制大量开发的生物质能CDM项目,这类项目大约占印度全部注册CDM项目的三分之一左右。印度从能源多元化供应的角度和扶持乡村可持续发展的角度上开发利用生物质能项目的实践是值得我国借鉴的。     

林业碳汇项目基准线和监测方法学及应用分析——以贵州省贞丰县林业碳汇项目为例

气候变化给全球社会经济发展带来了重大影响,林业碳汇在适应和减缓气候变化、促进可持续发展三方面的重要作用日益被世界各国所认可。林业碳汇项目实施的难点在于准确掌握林业碳汇项目设计的规则、标准体系,重点在于基准线判别、碳汇计量、监测的方法学和工具。本文系统介绍了国际清洁发展机制造林再造林(CDM A/R)项目方法学和国内碳汇造林项目方法学、标准体系等最新成果,并以贵州省贞丰县林业碳汇项目为例,分析了基准线和监测方法学在林业碳汇项目开发设计中的实际应用。     

CDM potential of SPV lighting systems in India

In view of the increasing interest in the development and dissemination of technologies for harnessing new and renewable sources of energy in India, there have also been some efforts towards their use in the domestic lighting sector. However, the cumulative number of Solar Photovoltaic (SPV) lighting systems such as SPV lanterns and solar home lighting systems in India is far below their theoretical potential despite government subsidy programmes. One of the major barriers is the high capital investment in these systems. The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) provides industrialized countries with an incentive to invest in emission reduction projects in developing countries to achieve a reduction in CO₂ emissions at lowest cost that also promotes sustainable development in the host country. SPV lanterns and solar home lighting systems could be of interest under the CDM because they directly displace greenhouse gas emissions while contributing to sustainable rural development. However, only two SPV projects have been submitted under the CDM so far. This study assesses the maximum theoretical as well as the realistically achievable CDM potential of SPV lanterns and solar home lighting systems in India. The SPV lantern project is financially viable at a certified emissions reductions (CER) price of 34 € whereas the solar home lighting project is financially viable at a CER price of 46 €. While the maximum mitigation volume is about 35 million tonne CO₂ on an annual basis, an estimate of achievable CER levels is done using the past diffusion trends of SPV systems. We find that annual CER volumes could reach 0.8 to 2.4 million by 2012 and 5.6 to 13.6 million by 2020. This would require that the government sets the subsidy level for SPV lighting systems at a level that allows them to become viable with the CER revenue. From a macro-economic point of view this makes sense if the sustainability benefits are deemed sufficiently high to warrant promotion of this type of project.

清洁发展机制(CDM)实践及理论研究进展

清洁发展机制(CDM)是《京都议定书》(KP)中规定的发达国家与发展中国家之间的温室气体减排合作方式。随着2005年2月26日KP的生效,CDM实施活动在全球范围内开始全面展开。中国被公认为是温室气体减排潜力最大的国家,具有广阔的开展CDM合作的前景。为了能配合国内CDM的实践活动,本文在大量文献及重要文件研究基础上,总结了CDM诞生10年来的实践及理论发展情况,并分析了CDM今后的发展趋势。     

《京都议定书》生效给林区经济发展带来新机遇——碳汇的利用途径与前景

<京都议定书>生效.它的实质是保护人类生存环境和地球生态平衡.清洁发展机制CDM是在<京都议定书>中建立的一个国际合作机制,清洁发展机制造林、再造林项目是利用森林的固碳生态功能,削减部分大气中CO2含量,研究CDM机制对于发展林区经济可持续发展具有重要意义.     

建设全国性碳排放交易中心发展CDM项目

清洁发展机制（CDM）是《京都议定书》提出的在全球范围内实施温室气体减排的重要机制,是发达国家与发展中国家基于项目的合作形式,是一种“双赢”政策。文章首先简述了清洁发展机制及与碳交易市场的情况,接着论述了清洁发展机制在中国的发展,提出建设全国的碳排放交易中心及意义,从而促进CDM在中国的发展。     

UNFCCC Kyoto Protocol Clean Development Mechanism Baseline Construction for Vietnam National Electricity Grid

For projects under the UNFCCC Kyoto Protocol Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), a baseline has to be set to allow calculation of the greenhouse gas emissions reductions achieved. An important obstacle to CDM project development is the lack of data for baseline definition; often project developers do not have access to data and therefore incur high transaction costs to collect them. The government of Vietnam has set up all necessary institutions for CDM, wants to promote CDM projects and thus is interested to reduce transaction costs. We calculate emission factors of the Vietnam electricity grid according to the rules defined by the CDM Executive Board for small scale projects and for large renewable electricity generation projects. The emission factors lie between 365 and 899 g CO₂/kWh depending on the specification. The weighted operating and build margin reaches 600 g for 2003, while grid average reaches 399 g. Using three-year averages, a combined build and operating margin of 705 g is calculated. We hope that these data facilitate CDM project development in the electricity supply and energy efficiency improvement in Vietnam.     

Unilateral Clean Development Mechanism – An approach for a least developed country?: The case of Yemen

Decision parameters prevailing in the market lead to a slim expression of interest of foreign investors for Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects in a bi- or multilateral design in Yemen. The Designated National Authority Secretariat in Yemen experiences the preference of Annex I entities of merely buying Certified Emission Reductions rather than investing in projects. Yemen's ability, like many least developed countries, to carry out unilateral CDM projects is moderate. Domestic project developers perceive difficulties in procuring underlying finance as key barrier in materializing CDM project activities in a unilateral design. The country remains trapped in a “catch 22 situation”. International assistance through low interest loans and capacity building for domestic financial institutions tailored to CDM project activities may trigger the market. Aggravation can be assisted by amending the policies of Annex I countries, in consequence to allocate a substantial share of their procurement activities to Certified Emission Reductions from least developed countries. Acquisition programmes may give preference to projects from host countries not traditionally represented in the pool of attractive CDM destinations.     

内蒙古清洁发展机制(CDM)项目现状分析及对策

清洁发展机制(Clean Development Mechanism,简称CDM)是《京都议定书》规定的3种温室气体减排途径之一,也是发展中国家唯一的参与温室气体减排的机制。本文以我国现阶段CDM项目发展现状为背景,具体针对内蒙古CDM项目现状及存在的问题(截止2010年9月7日)展开分析,提出内蒙古发展CDM项目的解决对策。     

Prospects for mitigating carbon,conserving biodiversity,and promoting socioeconomic development objectives through the clean development mechanism

Should forest-based climate mitigationmeasures be approved for crediting through the CleanDevelopment Mechanism (CDM), they could offer anopportunity to accomplish three important objectives:cost-effective reductions in carbon emissions andsequestration of atmospheric carbon; conservation andrestoration of forests and their biological diversity;and, the assistance of host countries and communitiesin their socioeconomic development. However,prospective investors in CDM projects, host countriesand other CDM `stakeholders' might be expected toplace widely different priorities on achieving theseobjectives. This paper describes several factors thatwill affect investor interest in CDM projects, thecharacteristics of forest-based CDM projects that willattract investments, and an approach to identifyingprojects that meet the key objectives of multiplestakeholders. This approach entails identifyingsites, such as degraded watersheds, where CDMfinancing for forest conservation and restoration cangenerate readily monetizable local and regionalsocioeconomic benefits, while mitigating carbonemissions in forests with importance for conservingbiodiversity.     

内蒙古清洁发展机制（CDM）项目现状分析及对策

清洁发展机制（Clean Development Mechanism,简称CDM）是《京都议定书》规定的3种温室气体减排途径之一,也是发展中国家唯一的参与温室气体减排的机制。本文以我国现阶段CDM项目发展现状为背景,具体针对内蒙古CDM项目现状及存在的问题（截至2010年9月7日）展开分析,提出内蒙古发展CDM项目的解决对策。     

清洁发展机制对我国节能减排的作用

清洁发展机制（CDM）是《京都议定书》发达国家和发展中国家就减排温室气体进行交易的合作机制。我国“十一五”规划《纲要》提出了节能减排的目标,而我国还是一个发展中国家,要实现节能减排面临很多的困难。CDM项目大部分是与提高能效和开发利用新能源直接有关,因此,CDM能为此提供一定的推动力,能够促进我国的节能减排。文章分析了当前我国节能减排面临的困难,探讨了CDM在我国节能减排所起的作用,提出我国对积极开发CDM项目应采取的相应对策。