Oil price scenarios and climate policy: welfare effects of including transportation in the EU emissions trading system

The stringency of policies needed to meet a climate target is influenced by uncertain oil prices because price changes cause emission changes, making the robustness of climate policy instruments important. As a result of its dependence on oil, emissions from the transport sector are particularly sensitive to oil price changes. We use a computable general equilibrium model to study the effects of including the transport sector in the EU??s emissions trading scheme under three future oil price scenarios. Our results show that there are potentially significant welfare gains from including transportation in the emissions trading scheme because the system as a whole helps absorb required changes in climate policy to meet the overall EU cap on emissions. There is, however, a cost in terms of somewhat greater permit price uncertainty.     

Integrating agricultural and forestry GHG mitigation response into general economy frameworks: Developing a family of response functions

An econometrically estimated family ofresponse functions is developed forcharacterizing potential responses togreenhouse gas mitigation policies by theagriculture and forestry sectors in theU.S. The response functions are estimatedbased on results of anagricultural/forestry sector model. Theyprovide estimates of sequestration andemission reductions in forestry andagriculture along with levels of sectoralproduction, prices, welfare, andenvironmental attributes given a carbonprice, levels of demand for agriculturalgoods, and the energy price. Sixalternative mitigation policiesrepresenting types of greenhouse gasoffsets allowed are considered. Resultsindicate that the largest quantity ofgreenhouse gas offset consistently appearswith the mitigation policy that pays forall opportunities. Restricting carbonpayments (emission tax or sequestrationsubsidy) only to aff/deforestation or onlyto agricultural sequestration substantiallyreduces potential mitigation. Highercarbon prices lead to more sequestration,less emissions, reduced consumer and totalwelfare, improved environmental indicatorsand increased producer welfare.     

Constructing sustainable palm oil: how actors define sustainability

Biofuels as a renewable source of energy have gained considerable importance in recent years. The use of biofuels is expected to rise since national governments of developed nations like the US and European countries see it as one of the ways to fulfill climate targets and increase the security in their energy supply. Production of biofuels is also expected to rise as developing nations see in biofuels the opportunity for connecting to international markets through supplying a new demand in the energy market.Several studies report on the environmental, social and economic gains and detriments that can arise from increased biofuel production and consumption. However, research that provides insight into the way in which such issues are defined by actors within the product chain is scarce. In this article we analyse how the strategies and value definitions of actors involved in the production and consumption of biofuels lead to specific definitions of sustainability. The empirical material concerns the chain of palm oil production in Colombia and electricity generation in the Netherlands. It is analysed using the method of action-in-context, which allows us to uncover the level and source of diversity of sustainability definitions in the product chain.While the current growth in production of palm oil is definitely buyer driven, the analysis of various activities in the chain shows that several aspects of sustainability are defined in more complex actor fields throughout the product chain.     

Can we meet targets for biofuels and renewable energy in transport given the constraints imposed by policy in agriculture and energy?

The deployment of biofuels is significantly affected by policy in energy and agriculture. In the energy arena, concerns regarding the sustainability of biofuel systems and their impact on food prices led to a set of sustainability criteria in EU Directive 2009/28/EC on Renewable Energy. In addition, the 10% biofuels target by 2020 was replaced with a 10% renewable energy in transport target. This allows the share of renewable electricity used by electric vehicles to contribute to the mix in achieving the 2020 target. Furthermore, only biofuel systems that effect a 60% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 compared with the fuel they replace are allowed to contribute to meeting the target. In the agricultural arena, cross-compliance (which is part of EU Common Agricultural Policy) dictates the allowable ratio of grassland to total agricultural land, and has a significant impact on which biofuels may be supported. This paper outlines the impact of these policy areas and their implications for the production and use of biofuels in terms of the 2020 target for 10% renewable transport energy, focusing on Ireland. The policies effectively impose constraints on many conventional energy crop biofuels and reinforce the merits of using biomethane, a gaseous biofuel. The analysis shows that Ireland can potentially satisfy 15% of renewable energy in transport by 2020 (allowing for double credit for biofuels from residues and ligno-cellulosic materials, as per Directive 2009/28/EC) through the use of indigenous biofuels: grass biomethane, waste and residue derived biofuels, electric vehicles and rapeseed biodiesel.     

发展生物能源引发的土地利用问题

在经济发展不断增加对能源的需求和国际上减少温室气体排放的压力下,生物能源得到了各国政府的大力扶持并取得了快速发展。全球燃料乙醇生产总量1975年为5.68×108L,2000年增加到170×108L,2007年迅速增加到511×108L。生物柴油也自2000年的约9.1×108L迅速增加到2007年的132×108L。生物能源的迅速发展带来了关于其对粮食安全影响的激烈争论。论文从剖析近年来关于生物能源发展对粮食安全的影响入手,系统分析了耕地在生物能源生产及其效应研究中的重要作用、近年来生物能源发展占用耕地面积、对土地利用变化的影响及其对农户耕地利用决策行为的影响机制。研究发现:①土地作为生物能源生产的主要资源投入类型,是其对粮食安全产生影响的最重要媒介;②近年来生物能源占用耕地面积呈不断增加趋势,2004年,全球生物能源占地1 400×104hm2,约为全球耕地总面积(140 583×104hm2)的1%,到2007年,占地4 221.7×104hm2,相当于2004年的3.05倍,据保守估计到2030年,将占地5 300×104hm2;③发展生物能源直接带来林地、草地和农用地等土地利用类型之间,以及不同农作物类型之间的土地利用冲突,并带来土地利用方式的显著变化;④从农户尺度看,相对于粮食作物,能源作物具备较高的经济收益,根据对广西武鸣县的农户调查得出,2009年木薯纯收益为11 123.04元/hm2、甘蔗为12 138.36元/hm2,远远高于稻谷(6 984.04元/hm2)、玉米(5 104.61元/hm2)、花生(2 851.36元/hm2),收益上的比较优势是其播种面积不断增加的根本原因。     

Agricultural crop-based biofuels – resource efficiency and environmental performance including direct land use changes

This paper analyses biofuels from agricultural crops in northern Europe regarding area and energy efficiency, greenhouse gases and eutrophication. The overall findings are that direct land use changes have a significant impact on GHG balances and eutrophication for all biofuels, the choice of calculation methods when by-products are included affecting the performance of food crop-based biofuels considerably, and the technical design of production systems may in specific cases be of major importance. The presented results are essential knowledge for the development of certification systems. Indirect land use changes are recognised but not included due to current scientific and methodological deficiencies.     

粮食与营养安全研究评述及展望

当前国际粮食安全局势堪忧,大多数发展中国家饥饿、营养素缺乏与营养过剩三重困境并存,实现全球粮食安全与营养安全的双重目标任重道远。本文梳理了95篇文献,旨在理清粮食与营养安全的发展脉络及演变规律,提出中国未来粮食与营养安全的研究重点。首先对全球粮食与营养安全的概念演变进行回顾,指出粮食安全概念由谷物供给总量安全到所有食物数量安全、再到食物质量与营养安全与可持续内涵的动态演化,由单一可供应维度向可供应、可获得性、可利用性、稳定性、可持续性多维度不断拓展。随后,从宏观国家层面梳理中国粮食与营养需求分析及预测、粮食生产能力和进口能力的相关研究,从微观家庭及个人层面评述收入、市场、城镇化、农户农业生产对食物消费及营养的影响。最后,基于未来城乡居民营养均衡发展目标,对中国粮食与营养安全研究的主要趋势和未来研究重点作出展望,指出未来展开对农业生产多样性、作物种植结构调整及作物营养强化,城镇化与市场建设的影响,城市中低收入人群和农村贫困人口营养问题的研究具有重大意义。     

Impacts of bioethanol on gasoline prices in the Philippines: an econometric analysis

The rising prices of crude oil in the world market and the continuing global trend to mainstream renewable energy use have prompted the Philippines to consider alternative fuels. Since 2006 when a new law was implemented requiring a 10 % blend to unleaded gasoline, the use of ethanol has increased significantly. Sugarcane (Saccharum spp.), cassava (Manihot esculenta ) and sweet potato (Ipomoea batatas) have been the major feedstock in ethanol production. This analysis focused on the impacts of E10 (10 % ethanol content) on the retail price of gasoline and how this might affect gasoline prices. Recognizing the direct dependence of the price of E10 on gasoline prices, the analysis focused on analyzing the price of ethanol. The hypothesis is that since ethanol is what makes E10 cheaper than gas given the lower cost of its production i.e., domestically grown raw materials, then cheaper ethanol should depress the price of E10 and therefore gas, ceteris paribus. The price of E10 is endogenous since it is a function of the price of gasoline, being a major input to its production, 90 % in fact. Using fixed-effects, 2007–2009 provincial panel data, from second stage least squares econometric estimation, the impact of ethanol use on retail regular gasoline prices is quantified. The partial effect analysis indicates that a 1-peso (rate: 1USD - PhP 41.96) increase in the price of feedstock prices as inputs to the production of E10 increases the price of gasoline by 37 centavos per liter. The analysis shows the positive relationship between the prices of E10 and gasoline.     

国内外能源价格对我国能源消耗的综合调节作用比较研究

基于1978-2012年国内外能源价格、产业发展以及我国能源消耗的相关数据,通过构建一般调节作用模型和状态空间模型比较了国内外能源价格对我国能源消耗的作用路径以及静态和动态作用效力,结果表明：仅考虑单一路径时,国内外能源价格均难以对我国能源消耗起到有效的调节作用,但综合考虑多种路径时则表现出较强的影响。能源价格的提高通过影响产出总量和产业结构产生了较强的能耗拉动效应,但却通过影响能源效率产生了一定的能耗抑制效应。此外,国内外能源价格的联动性低,价格传导受阻。样本区间内,国内能源价格对我国能源消耗的影响显著大于国外能源价格的作用;后者通过价格路径对我国能源消耗的作用短期内并不显著,长期则表现出了一定的抑制性。总体来看,国内外能源价格关联性越强（价差越小）,能源价格提升对于能耗总量的抑制作用越明显;我国能源价格的合理上升有利于节能降耗。     

太湖流域粮食生产时空格局演变与粮食安全评价

太湖流域既是中国传统粮食高产区又是当前经济发展的前沿阵地。论文从宏观视角探讨了该区1985-2010年27个县域粮食生产时空变化格局及粮食安全水平,结果表明:时间演化上该区粮食产量不稳定,但总体呈下降趋势,历经波动发展-急剧减少-稳步增长三阶段;空间差异亦较显著,除西北4个县域,其余地区粮食产量均有不同程度下降,粮食生产重心逐渐由中部向西北偏移,县域粮食生产相对优势弱化,整体粮食生产能力降低;粮食总产变异系数和70%以上年份波动系数超全国平均水平,粮食安全风险大;粮食不安全县域增多,2010年59%的县域粮食不安全。未来该区仍受到耕地数量减少和质量退化威胁,完善耕地保护政策并提出保障粮食安全的区域差别化措施具有重要的现实意义。     

How China’s current energy pricing mechanisms will impact its marginal carbon abatement costs?

Economic and social costs and benefits are critical factors affecting greenhouse gas abatement activities. Recognizing that energy prices are one of the most important factors influencing abatement costs, this study improved the basic China Energy and Environmental Policy Analysis (CEEPA) model by introducing a current energy pricing mechanism for China. The improved model was applied to generate marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves for China including the current energy pricing mechanism and to analyze MACs for the whole country and main abatement sectors in China under different energy pricing mechanisms. The results show that China MACs are sensitive to pricing mechanisms for electricity and refined oil. Ignoring the current regulation of these prices will lead to MAC underestimation, and price liberalization of these two energy sources could lead to a decrease in China MACs. Under a 50 % emission reduction target, if the electricity price regulation is ignored, the China MAC is underestimated by almost 16 %. Energy pricing reforms will lead to variations in sectoral abatement costs and overall abatement potential, and these impacts are projected to be large in the electricity sector. Under a 50 % reduction target, if the electricity price regulation is liberalized, MAC for the electricity sector nearly will decrease 50 %.     

Emission trading in agriculture: a study of design options using an agent-based approach

The Scottish Government has proposed reducing Scotland’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 80% by 2050, compared to the 1990 baseline level. It is not yet clear how these reductions will be achieved, but it is likely that all sectors will be expected to make some contribution. Depending on their farm activities, farmers have different sets of abatement alternatives—the challenge facing them, however, is in finding strategies that help to meet reduction targets while maintaining their income. In this paper, we use an agent-based modelling approach to study the implications of carbon trading design options aimed at reducing GHG emissions in the agricultural sector, such as auctions, fixed carbon prices, or carbon credit banking. The feasibility of carbon trading scheme options is assessed regarding their ability to ensure that farmers obtain carbon credits at an affordable and adequate price, since low prices would reward farmers not adopting on-farm abatement options and high prices would encourage non-compliance to targets, thus increasing enforcement costs. Assuming a closed market within the agricultural sector, this study shows that farmers may face up to 50% loss of income to achieve a 30% reduction target if this requires a cut in production. However, market design options such as credits banking may allow farmers to progressively adapt to the scheme constraints. At an individual level, the rate of on-farm compliance and the mandated emission reduction target will determine which farmer strategy is the most efficient to cope with a trading scheme.     

Best practices for the sustainable production of algae-based biofuel in China

This paper focuses on developing countries that are striving to understand the requirements for the sustainable, commercial development of algae for the production of biofuels. The paper will review the sustainable development of biofuel production, including the major issues that must be addressed before embarking on the path to sustainable biofuel production. The sustainable production of biofuel should be implemented with an ecologically friendly perspective to ensure that future generations will enjoy prosperity of the planet that we share. We can find more than one path for the development of biofuel production from algae but sustainable development must be stressed to ensure prosperity for future generations.     

Integrated assessment of CCS in the German power plant sector with special emphasis on the competition with renewable energy technologies

The study presents the results of an integrated assessment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the power plant sector in Germany, with special emphasis on the competition with renewable energy technologies. Assessment dimensions comprise technical, economic and environmental aspects, long-term scenario analysis, the role of stakeholders and public acceptance and regulatory issues. The results lead to the overall conclusion that there might not necessarily be a need to focus additionally on CCS in the power plant sector. Even in case of ambitious climate protection targets, current energy policy priorities (expansion of renewable energies and combined heat and power plants as well as enhanced energy productivity) result in a limited demand for CCS. In case that the large energy saving potential aimed for can only partly be implemented, the rising gap in CO₂ reduction could only be closed by setting up a CCS-maximum strategy. In this case, up to 22% (41 GW) of the totally installed load in 2050 could be based on CCS. Assuming a more realistic scenario variant applying CCS to only 20 GW or lower would not be sufficient to reach the envisaged climate targets in the electricity sector. Furthermore, the growing public opposition against CO₂ storage projects appears as a key barrier, supplemented by major uncertainties concerning the estimation of storage potentials, the long-term cost development as well as the environmental burdens which abound when applying a life-cycle approach. However, recently, alternative applications are being increasingly considered?Cthat is the capture of CO₂ at industrial point sources and biomass based energy production (electricity, heat and fuels) where assessment studies for exploring the potentials, limits and requirements for commercial use are missing so far. Globally, CCS at power plants might be an important climate protection technology: coal-consuming countries such as China and India are increasingly moving centre stage into the debate. Here, similar investigations on the development and the integration of both, CCS and renewable energies, into the individual energy system structures of such countries would be reasonable.     

Effects of bioenergy policies and targets on European wetland restoration options

The EU is committed to combat climate change and to increase security of its energy supply. Bioenergy from forestry and agriculture plays a key role for both. Concurrently, the EU agreed to halt the loss of biodiversity within its member states. To fulfil the biodiversity target more nature conservation and restoration sites need to be designated. There are arising concerns that an increased cultivation of bioenergy crops will decrease the land available for nature reserves and for “traditional” agriculture and forestry. To assess the role of bioenergy in light of possible negative impacts on ecosystems, the European Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (EUFASOM) assesses simultaneously economic and environmental aspects of land use. This study contributes to the assessment by analyzing the effect of bioenergy production on European wetland allocations by incorporating the spatial wetland distribution model SWEDI into EUFASOM. Results show that bioenergy targets increase land competition and thus marginal costs of wetland preservation but also of food prices. The designation of national wetland conservation targets, on the other hand, stimulates land use intensification in countries without these targets and here only a transfer of environmental stresses takes place. The model is able to illustrate regional differences of results.     

Partitioning of resources in production: an empirical analysis

Industrial economies ingest materials, energy and information to produce goods and services and excrete wastes and emissions. Wastes can be minimized and the relative amounts of resources, which go into goods and services, as opposed to waste, are essential to clean production and to the sustainability of the production system. A regression model based on empirical data is presented that provides a partition coefficient expressing the ratio of energy (or material) resources invested in goods to energy going to waste. Partition coefficients are developed for five countries and are shown to be related to GDP, energy and material consumption and energy and waste intensities. Higher partition coefficients mean higher productivity and lower energy, waste and material intensities. In addition, energy use/capita and pollution/capita is lower. The price of energy to the industrial sector is related to the partition coefficient. The policy implications are that partitioning of resources to goods should be maximized and waste minimized for economic as well as environmental reasons.     

Algal biofuel production and mitigation potential in India

Energy and energy services are the backbone of growth and development in India and is increasingly dependent upon the use of fossil based fuels that lead to greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions and related concerns. Algal biofuels are being evolved as carbon (C)-neutral alternative biofuels. Algae are photosynthetic microorganisms that convert sunlight, water and carbon dioxide (CO₂) to various sugars and lipids Tri-Acyl-Glycols (TAG) and show promise as an alternative, renewable and green fuel source for India. Compared to land based oilseed crops algae have potentially higher yields (5?C12 g/m²/d) and can use locations and water resources not suited for agriculture. Within India, there is little additional land area for algal cultivation and therefore needs to be carried out in places that are already used for agriculture, e.g. flooded paddy lands (20 Mha) with village level technologies and on saline wastelands (3 Mha). Cultivating algae under such conditions requires novel multi-tier, multi-cyclic approaches of sharing land area without causing threats to food and water security as well as demand for additional fertilizer resources by adopting multi-tier cropping (algae-paddy) in decentralized open pond systems. A large part of the algal biofuel production is possible in flooded paddy crop land before the crop reaches dense canopies, in wastewaters (40 billion litres per day), in salt affected lands and in nutrient/diversity impoverished shallow coastline fishery. Mitigation will be achieved through avoidance of GHG, C-capture options and substitution of fossil fuels. Estimates made in this paper suggest that nearly half of the current transportation petro-fuels could be produced at such locations without disruption of food security, water security or overall sustainability. This shift can also provide significant mitigation avenues. The major adaptation needs are related to socio-technical acceptance for reuse of various wastelands, wastewaters and waste-derived energy and by-products through policy and attitude change efforts.     

Modern Biomass Conversion Technologies

This article gives an overview of the state-of-the-art of key biomass conversion technologies currently deployed and technologies that may play a key role in the future, including possible linkage to CO₂ capture and sequestration technology (CCS). In doing so, special attention is paid to production of biofuels for the transport sector, because this is likely to become the key emerging market for large-scale sustainable biomass use. Although the actual role of bio-energy will depend on its competitiveness with fossil fuels and on agricultural policies worldwide, it seems realistic to expect that the current contribution of bio-energy of 40–55 EJ per year will increase considerably. A range from 200 to 300 EJ may be observed looking well into this century, making biomass a more important energy supply option than mineral oil today. A key issue for bio-energy is that its use should be modernized to fit into a sustainable development path. Especially promising are the production of electricity via advanced conversion concepts (i.e. gasification and state-of-the-art combustion and co-firing) and modern biomass derived fuels like methanol, hydrogen and ethanol from ligno-cellulosic biomass, which can reach competitive cost levels within 1–2 decades (partly depending on price developments with petroleum). Sugar cane based ethanol production already provides a competitive biofuel production system in tropical regions and further improvements are possible. Flexible energy systems, in which biomass and fossil fuels can be used in combination, could be the backbone for a low risk, low cost and low carbon emission energy supply system for large scale supply of fuels and power and providing a framework for the evolution of large scale biomass raw material supply systems. The gasification route offers special possibilities to combine this with low cost CO₂ capture (and storage), resulting in concepts that are both flexible with respect to primary fuel input as well as product mix and with the possibility of achieving zero or even negative carbon emissions. Prolonged RD&D efforts and biomass market development, consistent policy support and international collaboration are essential to achieve this.     

能源强度研究中能源价格影响的实证分析

利用索罗生产函数模型,构造出能源价格与能源强度的关系。并分别使用了全国和江苏省1990—2008年时间序列数据,计量分析研究了能源相对价格对于能源强度的影响作用。将含时间参量的技术进步作为一个整体单独的参数来考虑,结果表明,最近几年来,全国和江苏省能源强度下降很明显,但总能源相对价格的上升对于能源强度降低的作用并不明显,电力相对价格的上升对于能源强度的下降有着一定的促进作用。     

工业用水价格杠杆的有效性——基于联立方程模型

对于工业用水而言,价格杠杆的有效性以及用水价格上涨能否提升工业用水重复利用率,对推进工业节水以及工业转型发展具有重要意义。基于2016年中国地级以上城市的216个数据,利用联立方程处理内生性问题,其三阶段回归结果估计所得工业用水价格弹性为-3.423,即价格每上涨1%,工业用水需求量将减少3.42%,这一结果高于农业、居民生活用水价格弹性。另外,进一步从工业用水特征出发,研究讨论价格杠杆能否提高工业用水重复利用率。分别运用普通最小二乘法和加权最小二乘法探讨水价对工业用水重复利用率的影响,结果表明：水价与工业用水重复利用率显著正相关。因此,提高工业水价能促进工业循环用水,进而实现节约用水。