Moving towards ambitious climate policies: Monetised health benefits from improved air quality could offset mitigation costs in Europe

Air quality and related health effects are not only affected by policies directly addressed at air pollution but also by other environmental strategies such as climate mitigation. This study addresses how different climate policy pathways indirectly bear upon air pollution in terms of improved human health in Europe. To this end, we put in perspective mitigation costs and monetised health benefits of reducing PM_2.5 (particles less than 2.5 μm in diameter) and ozone concentrations.Air quality in Europe and related health impacts were assessed using a comprehensive modelling chain, based on global and regional climate and chemistry-transport models together with a health impact assessment tool. This allows capturing both the impact of climate policy on emissions of air pollutants and the geophysical impact of climate change on air quality.Results are presented for projections at the 2050 horizon, for a set of consistent air pollution and climate policy scenarios, combined with population data from the UN's World Population Prospects, and are expressed in terms of morbidity and mortality impacts of PM_2.5 and ozone pollution and their monetised damage equivalent.The analysis shows that enforcement of current European air quality policies would effectively reduce health impacts from PM_2.5 in Europe even in the absence of climate policies (life years lost from the exposure to PM_2.5 decrease by 78% between 2005 and 2050 in the reference scenario), while impacts for ozone depend on the ambition level of international climate policies. A move towards stringent climate policies on a global scale, in addition to limiting global warming, creates co-benefits in terms of reduced health impacts (68% decrease in life years lost from the exposure to PM_2.5 and 85% decrease in premature deaths from ozone in 2050 in the mitigation scenario relative to the reference scenario) and air pollution cost savings (77%) in Europe. These co-benefits are found to offset at least 85% of the additional cost of climate policy in this region.     

Air quality and climate change: Designing new win-win policies for Europe

Anthropogenic activities are responsible for the emission of gaseous and particulate pollutants that modify atmospheric composition. Such changes are, in turn, responsible for the degradation of air quality at the regional/local scale as well as for changes of climate. Air pollution and climate change are two intimately connected environmental issues. However, these two environmental challenges are still viewed as separate issues, which are dealt with by different science communities and within different policy frameworks. Indeed, many mitigation options offer the possibility to both improve air quality and mitigate climate change but, at the same time, mitigation options that may provide benefits to one aspect, are worsening the situation in the other. Therefore, coordinated actions taking into account the air quality-climate linkages are required. These actions need to be based on strong scientific grounds, as recognised by the European Commission that in the past few years has promoted consultation processes among the science community, the policy makers and the relevant stakeholders. Here, the main fields in which such coordinated actions are needed are examined from a policy perspective.     

Long-term reductions in costs of controlling regional air pollution in Europe due to climate policy

This paper examines to what extent climate change policies will alter the effectiveness of agreed-upon or future policies to reduce regional air pollution in Europe and vice versa. And when is it cost-effective to combat regional air pollution with clean technology instead of add-on technology?For this exercise, several extensions were made to the energy model TIMER, to introduce add-on abatement technologies, specified in terms of costs and reduction potentials, in order to be able to calculate cost-effective emission reduction strategies for different scenarios and regions.The results show that add-on technologies to reduce regional air pollution remain necessary throughout the century. The costs to reach the NO_x emission reduction targets in Europe are about three times as high as for SO₂. Mitigation costs averaged over the century by add-on technologies can be reduced by climate measures by 50–70% for SO₂ and around 50% for NO_x. The costs of SO₂ and NO_x mitigation by add-on technology in a world without climate policy are comparable or in some periods even higher than the costs of an integrated mitigation of SO₂, NO_x and CO₂ emissions if a reduction of specific costs by learning is, in contrast with energy technologies, not assumed for abatement technologies. So, the costs of SO₂ and NO_x add-on measures avoided by climate policies can outweigh the costs of these climate measures. The total annual costs are in the order of 1 or 2% of the present GDP, depending on the scenario.     

The future of hydropower in Europe: Interconnecting climate,markets and policies

Hydropower is very important for electricity supply security in the European inter-connexion as well as for the economy of regions (primarily peripheral) that possess water resources. Its future may however be jeopardized by several factors: climate change, the development of new renewable energy, the creation of super and micro-grids, and progress in power storage technology. Energy and climate policy, as well as electricity market design and dynamics play a pivotal role.This article carries out a comprehensive analysis of all these factors and discusses the future of hydropower. This discussion follows an overview of the present situation and of future drivers. The technical, environmental, economic and political aspects of the problem are analyzed with an interdisciplinary approach. The stakes as well as the uncertainties are highlighted.The conclusion is that hydropower has a promising future, particularly in light of emerging sustainable energy policy, but that the risks should not be overlooked. Academics will find a comprehensive interdisciplinary analysis of hydropower in this article, whereas public bodies, communities and hydropower companies can identify the strategic variables that should be taken into consideration in the decision making process. The end of water concessions or authorizations is also evoked.     

Gaps in the capacity of modern forage crops to adapt to the changing climate in northern Europe

The within-species diversity in response to weather and the gaps in the response diversity in the modern set of forage crop cultivars were determined using an approach that assessed the adaptive capacity under global climate change. The annual dry matter (DM) yields were recorded in multi-location MTT (Maa- ja elintarviketalouden tutkimuskeskus) Agrifood Research Official Variety Trials in Finland for modern forage crop cultivars from 2000 to 2012, as a response to agroclimatic variables critical to yield based on the year-round weather data. The effect and interaction of cultivars and agroclimatic variables were analysed using mixed model. The relatively low adaptive capacity of timothy (Phleum pratense L.) and meadow fescue (Festuca pratensis Huds.) indicates that diversification of the breeding material is warranted, particularly for resistance to high temperatures during primary growth and to high temperature sum 7 days after the first cut. All red clover cultivars (Trifolium pratense L.) suffered from both low and high accumulation of warm winter temperatures. Except for the red clover cultivars, cold stress during winter and lack of warm winter temperatures consistently reduced the yields of all species and cultivars. All tall fescue (Festuca arundinacea Schreb.) cultivars suffered from low precipitation during the fall hardening period. Although the set of festulolium (Festulolium pabulare) cultivars was also sensitive to low precipitation during the fall, festulolium was a good example of enhanced capacity to adapt to climate change with high response diversity because the cultivar germplasm base was diversified. Foreign origin in a cultivar pool was apparently not sufficient or necessary to ensure added value for a diversity of responses to climate change. Similar analyses to those used in this study, applied as practical tools for breeders, farmers and public actors, are important to secure the adaptive capacity of crops worldwide under global climate change.     

空气污染健康损失中统计生命价值评估研究

采用权变评价法(CVM)评估了我国空气污染健康损失中的统计生命价值,并分析了其影响因素.结果表明,我国空气污染健康损失中的统计生命价值约为100万元/a.区间值线性回归模型分析显示,年龄、受教育程度、人均年收入、健康和家庭规模等因素对统计生命价值均有显著影响,但是城市的不同对统计生命价值并没有显著影响.     

Estimation of climate change influence on the sensitivity of trees in Europe to air pollution concentrations

This paper describes the results of combining several simple models to assess the changes in plant sensitivity to direct effects of gaseous air pollutants that result from changes in climatic conditions. This research has been carried out within the framework of a project on the integrated assessment of regional air pollution and climate change in Europe (AIR-CLIM). The modulation of plant sensitivity to gaseous pollutants has been studied using a model of stomatal conductance that simulates the flow of water vapor from the atmosphere to the plant interior through the stomata. The model has been applied to Norway spruce (Picea abies L.) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.). The critical atmospheric concentration levels for SO₂ and NO_x adopted in international environmental norms have been modified to maintain in different climate scenarios a concentration level inside the plant equivalent to the critical limit in 1990. These simulated critical concentrations are compared with the predicted atmospheric concentrations. Our work indicates that the response can be very different for the two types of forests and in different regions. In general, climate change sensitivity increases in boreal areas and decreases in temperate areas due to temperature and water stress. If the air pollution levels are in the predicted ranges, the problems are less severe now than in 1990, but the cumulative stress will still be significant.     

An integrated assessment of regional air pollution and climate change in Europe: findings of the AIR-CLIM Project

This paper presents results of an assessment of the linkages between regional air pollution and climate change in Europe (the AIR-CLIM Project). The main research tool was an integrated modeling framework and the main product was a consistent set of long-term scenarios covering Europe between 1995 and 2100. Scenarios consisted of trends in emissions, acid deposition, nitrogen deposition and climate change. Critical loads and critical levels were used to assess the impacts of deposition to forest soils and a new analogous concept of “critical climate change” was developed to assess the impacts of climate change. Taking into consideration the limitations of the scope and models used in the study, preliminary conclusions were: (1) regional air pollution and climate change may be fairly weakly coupled in the natural environment, i.e. climate change was not found to have a large impact on the sensitivity of forest ecosystems to regional air pollution, nor on the distribution of deposition; nor did regional air pollution (in the form of sulfate aerosols) have a significant impact on climate change in Europe; (2) however, regional air pollution and climate change may be strongly coupled in the “policy” environment. It was estimated that virtually all of Europe at mid-century might be affected by either regional air pollution or climate change, or both, and this will require a strong policy response. Moreover, the indirect effects of climate policies were found to reduce the costs of controlling air pollution emissions by more than 50%, suggesting a strong potential financial linkage between policies to reduce greenhouse gas and air pollution emissions.     

船只排放物对欧洲空气质量及酸性沉降造成的影响

一个名为"STOCHEM"的三维拉氏化学传输模型被用于描述2000年气候条件下国际海运活动产生的SO2、Nox、VOCs和CO排放造成的欧洲大西洋沿岸区域性酸性沉降和臭氧空气质量影响的状况.     

Valuing health effects from the industrial air pollution in rural Tianjin, China

IntroductionAirpollutioninTianjinisveryserious ,andismainlycausedbycoalconsumption .Theaverageconcentrationoftotalsuspendedparticulates (TSP)hasreached 0 3 5mg m3from 1990to 1998,exceedingChina’slevelⅡEnvironmentalCriterion ,whichis 0 2 0mg m3 Townshi…     

Vulnerability to the health effects of climate variability in rural southwestern Uganda

Vulnerability to the health impacts of climate change will be shaped by the existing burden of ill- health and is expected to be highest in poor and socio-economically marginalized populations. Sub-Saharan Africa, in particular, is considered a highly vulnerable region. This paper analyses the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of rural Bakiga communities in southwestern Uganda to climate-sensitive health risks. The objectives were threefold: i) identify key climate-sensitive, community-identified health priorities; ii) describe and characterize determinants of sensitivity to these health priorities at the individual, community and regional levels; and iii) assess the adaptive capacity of Bakiga. Data collection employed a combination of individual and key informant interviews, biographies, future storylines, and Photovoice. Three key health risks were identified by the study communities (malaria, food insecurity, and gastrointestinal illnesses) – all affected by local climatic and environmental conditions, livelihoods, land use changes, and socio-economic conditions. Adaptation within these communities is dependent on their capacity to reduce sensitivities to identified health challenges among the potential of increasing exposures. Crop diversification, reducing deforestation, expanding of livestock rearing, transfer of traditional knowledge, and access to affordable health services are among potential strategies identified. We demonstrate significant existing vulnerabilities to present day climate-related health risks and highlight the importance of non-climatic processes and local conditions in creating sensitivity to health risks. Our place-based understanding is useful to inform interventions or policies aimed to reduce exposure and sensitivity and support adaptive capacity as the conditions these communities face are consistent with many other sub-Saharan African countries.     

Benefits and costs of controlling three allergenic alien species under climate change and dispersal scenarios in Central Europe

Climate change is likely to exacerbate the negative effects of invasive alien species (IAS) as it will foster their further spread. This paper analyses the potential socio-economic effects of three emerging IAS (giant ragweed, Ambrosia trifida; annual wormwood, Artemisia annua; and burweed marshelder, Iva xanthiifolia), which are known to cause substantial harm to human health and to have negative effects on agricultural production. The novelty of the study consists in an integrated approach that combines several aspects of IAS research and management. We model the future spread of the study species in Central Europe by the year 2050 under several climate change, management and spread scenarios. The costs and benefits of controlling the expansion of these IAS are based on this forecast. The results show that an early and coordinated response to the spread of these IAS yields substantial net benefits under all scenarios. Under the conditions of moderate climate change (+1.5 °C), discounted net benefits range from €19 to €582 million. Assuming more severe climate change (+2.4 °C), total savings over the full period are projected to add up to €1063 million. These large socio-economic benefits provide compelling evidence that public authorities should act preventively to restrict the spread of these three IAS.     

中国臭氧污染的空间分布和健康效应

基于2017年全国1365个监测站点的实时监测数据，运用空间数据统计模型揭示近地面臭氧（O₃）污染的时空分布格局，并利用BenMap工具在10km×10km空间网格尺度上估计O₃污染的健康损失和健康经济价值.结果表明，O₃浓度具有较强的季节性变化，呈倒"V"型变化趋势，在空间分布上呈现明显的集聚性，即高值或低值区域集中分布，具有较强的空间正相关性；通过O₃暴露系数模拟人群室内、室外O₃暴露情况，在统计意义上估计得到2017年O₃污染共计造成我国全因早逝人数98473例（95%置信区间：53419~143292），其中心血管疾病早逝风险约占45%，以不同学者估算得到的单位统计生命价值为基础，估计得到的健康经济损失在197~978亿元之间，约占2017年全国GDP的0.05%~0.26%.     

Experiments comparing the use of kites and gas bangers to protect crops from woodpigeon damage

Woodpigeon damage to spring cabbage on two farms in different years was greatly reduced when a large kite was flown over the fields. Protection continued for over 3 months with no sign of habituation to the kite by pigeons. Woodpigeons avoided flying or settling within 250 m of the kite. Damage in fields with a gas banger exceeded that in fields with a kite, especially in severe winter weather. “Humming line” proved ineffectual in reducing damage. On these lowland farms it was necessary to launch the kite on most mornings, but if such launching can be carried out, kites can be effective in reducing damage by woodpigeons.     

2016-2020年成都市大气质量变化特征及健康风险评价

本文基于成都市2016—2020年PM2.5、PM10、SO2、NO2、CO和O3浓度监测数据,运用主成分分析(PCA)和复合污染特征分析污染物特征及来源,并采用美国环境保护署(USEPA)推荐的健康风险评价模型评估了PM2.5、PM10、SO2、NO2的健康风险,结果表明:2016-2020年成都市除O3外其余5种大...     

New policies to deal with climate change and other drivers impacting on resilience to flooding in urban areas: the CORFU approach

In the context of urban flood management, resilience is equal to resisting, recovering, reflecting and responding. The variety of causes of flooding and their consequences underpin the need for increased and internationally coordinated efforts to enhance technologies and policies for dealing with floods. This paper addresses this issue and presents some novel research ideas related to resilience to flooding in urban areas, which are under development within the EU FP7 project ‘Collaborative research on flood resilience in urban areas’ (CORFU). The approach adopted in this project aims to quantify the cost-effectiveness of resilience measures and integrative and adaptable flood management plans for different scenarios of relevant drivers: urban development, socio-economic trends and climate changes. It is believed that the way in which the different models are being put together, combined with the variability of conditions in case study areas in Asia and in Europe, will ultimately enable more scientifically sound policies for the management of the consequences of urban flooding.     

Community vulnerability to the health effects of climate change among indigenous populations in the Peruvian Amazon: a case study from Panaillo and Nuevo Progreso

This paper presents the results of an exploratory study working with two Amazonian communities in Peru to identify key climate-related health risks from the perspective of local residents, and characterize how these risks are experienced and managed. The work adopts a vulnerability-based approach and utilizes participatory methodologies to document and examine local perspectives on vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Thirty nine community members were engaged in participatory photography (photovoice), and rapid rural appraisal workshops were conducted with a total 40 participants. Contextual information was obtained from 34 semi-structured interviews with key informants and participant observation during fieldwork. Three climate-related health risks were identified by the communities as pressing issues (food insecurity, water insecurity, and vector-borne disease), all of which are climate-dependent and reported to be being affected by observed changes in climatic conditions. Sensitivity to these risks is high due to social and economic disadvantages which force people to live in suboptimal conditions, partake in dangerous activities, and engage in unhealthy behaviors. Traditional approaches to health and strong social networks are important in moderating health risks, but are placed under increasing stress in the context of local social and economic changes due to larger scale influences, including resource development, deforestation, and changing social relations.     

Pledges for climate mitigation: the effects of the Copenhagen accord on CO2 emissions and mitigation costs

The UN Framework Convention of Climate Change 15th Conference of the Parties Copenhagen Accord has been followed up by national pledges of greenhouse gas emissions reductions in the year 2020 without specifying measures to enforce actions. As a consequence, the capacity of parties to fulfil their obligations is of basic interest. This article outlines the effects of full compliance with pledges on greenhouse gas emissions, economic growth, and trade. The study is based on the global computable general equilibrium model global responses to anthropogenic changes in the environment (GRACE) distinguishing between fossil and non-fossil energy use. Global emissions from fossil fuels in 2020 turn out to be 15 % lower than in a business as usual scenario and 3 % below the global emissions from fossil fuels in 2005. China and India increase their emissions to 1 % and 5 % above business as usual levels in 2020. India and Russia increase their net export of steel corresponding to around 30 and 45 % of their production levels in 2020. In spite of some leakage of energy intensive production also to China, we find that structural change remains the dominant factor behind the rapid reduction of CO₂ emission intensity in China towards 2020.