上海市机动车尾气排放协同控制效应研究

以2007~2012年为一个时间序列,通过详细调查上海市机动车道路交通等基础资料对机动车各污染物排放量进行测算,并利用协同控制坐标系评价方法,设计单一措施、结构性措施和综合性措施等3种机动车污染减排控制情景.结果表明:2007~2012年,上海市机动车污染物年排放量呈递减趋势,其中摩托车(MC)、小型汽油客车(LDGV)、重型柴油货车(HDDT)和大型柴油客车(HDDV)是机动车污染物主要的排放源,其排放量总和占到机动车污染物总量的90%以上.按当前上海市机动车保有量增长速度,2018年机动车尾气排放的可吸入颗粒物(PM₁₀)增长7%,温室气体增长比例为15%~108%,其中二氧化碳(CO₂)增长比例达到45%以上.在各控制情景下污染物和温室气体均有不同程度下降,但减排效果有明显差异.在单一措施控制情景下,淘汰黄标车和提高排放标准对两类污染物的削减效果明显,削减比例均在20%以上;而结构性控制措施对这两类污染物的削减尤为明显,削减比例达到40%以上且正向协同效应突出.     

What contribution can tree plantations make towards meeting Australia’s commitments under the Kyoto Protocol?

The Kyoto Protocol has been drafted to bring about an overall reduction in net emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Australia has agreed to limit its increase of net greenhouse gas emissions to 8% between 1990 and 2010. While this target is not as tight as that of other parties to the Protocol, it nonetheless constitutes a significant reduction of net emissions below business-as-usual projections, and it will require significant policy initiatives to achieve this reduction. The Kyoto Protocol allows some carbon sequestration by vegetation sinks to be offset against CO₂ emissions from the burning of fossil fuels. This paper aims to estimate the contribution that forestation projects could make towards meeting Australia’s commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. It concludes that new plantations could sequester between 0.6 and 7 MtC yr⁻¹ over the commitment period (2008–2012) and offset between about 0.5 and 6% of Australia’s 1990 greenhouse gas emissions. The different estimates depend on the area of eligible plantations that will be established from 1999 onwards and whether plantations will be allowed to grow through to the end of the commitment period or will be in short-rotation stands that may be harvested before 2012. The maximum emission offset can only be achieved if new plantations are established at a rate of 100,000 ha yr⁻¹, which is equivalent to the Australian Government’s target under the 2020 vision. It is likely that sufficient suitable land would be available in Australia to achieve the required establishment rates. However, while such a contribution by vegetation sinks would be helpful, it would not, on its own, be sufficient for Australia to meet its required greenhouse gas emission target.     

Active Amplification of the Terrestrial Albedo to Mitigate Climate Change: An Exploratory Study

To date, international efforts to mitigate climate change have focussed on reducing emissions of greenhouse gases in the energy, transportation and agriculture sectors, and on sequestering atmospheric carbon dioxide in forests. Here, the potential to complement these efforts by actions to enhance the reflectance of solar insolation by the human settlement and grassland components of the Earth's terrestrial surface is explored. Preliminary estimates derived using a static two dimensional radiative transfer model indicate that such efforts could amplify the overall planetary albedo enough to offset the current global annual average level of radiative forcing caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases by as much as 30% or 0.76 Wm^{− 2}. Terrestrial albedo amplification may thus extend, by about 25 years, the time available to advance the development and use of low-emission energy conversion technologies which ultimately remain essential to mitigate long-term climate change. While a scoping analysis indicates the technical feasibility of sufficiently enhancing human settlement and grassland albedos to levels needed to achieve reductions in radiative forcing projected here, additional study is required on two fronts. Firstly, the modelled radiative forcing reductions are static estimates. As they would generate climate feedbacks, more detailed dynamic climate modelling would be needed to confirm the stationary value of the radiative forcing reduction that would result from land surface albedo amplification. Secondly, land surface albedo amplification schemes may have important economic and environmental impacts. Accurate ex ante impact assessments would be required to validate global implementation of related measures as a viable mitigation strategy.     

农业残留物燃烧温室气体排放清单研究:以江苏省为例

通过问卷调查确定了江苏省农业残留物在不同时间阶段(1990～1995、1996～2000、2001～2005和2006～2008年)作为生活燃料和田间直接燃烧的比例,利用燃烧炉模拟秸秆燃烧试验确定了6种农业残留物(水稻、小麦、玉米、油菜、棉花和大豆)燃烧产生的CO2、CO、CH4和N2O的排放因子;基于此,结合江苏省不...     

Biogenic greenhouse gas emissions linked to the life cycles of biodiesel derived from European rapeseed and Brazilian soybeans

Biogenic emissions of carbonaceous greenhouse gases and N₂O turn out to be important determinants of life cycle emissions of greenhouse gases linked to the life cycle of biodiesel from European rapeseed and Brazilian soybeans. For biodiesel from European rapeseed and for biodiesel from Brazilian soybeans grown for up to 25 years with no tillage on arable soil for which tropical rainforest or Cerrado (savannah) have been cleared, the life cycle emissions of greenhouse gases are estimated to be worse than for conventional diesel. Improving agricultural practices should be an important focus for cleaner production of biodiesel. These may include increasing soil carbon stocks by, e.g., conservation tillage and return of harvest residues and improving N-efficiency by precision agriculture and/or improved irrigation practices.     

我国城市生活垃圾处理处置全过程大气排放研究进展

2016年我国城市生活垃圾的年清运量突破2×108 t,并且在未来一段时间内仍会呈现上升趋势.虽然近年来我国城市垃圾无害化处理率年均增幅超过10%,但随着城市化进程的不断深入,庞大的垃圾产生量给现有城市垃圾处理系统造成巨大挑战,同时使垃圾处理处置过程中大气温室气体及污染物排放逐渐引起社会关注,如2010年我国垃圾焚烧导致大气污染物NO_x、SO₂、CO、颗粒物的排放量分别为28、12 062、6 500、4 654 t等.充分调研现有垃圾处理处置全过程大气排放的研究,总结我国城市生活垃圾收集、转运到最终处理处置大气排放物种多样、排放分散的现状,结合现有研究覆盖范围有限、研究物种稀少的局限,同时为进一步推进大气排放清单系统化和精细化的进程,提出以下建议和展望:①核算城市和地区垃圾转运过程中的大气环境成本和压缩空间;②进一步完善并扩充垃圾焚烧多种有毒有害大气污染物（如二英、重金属元素及挥发性有机物等）排放特征测试和排放清单的研究;③在完善生活垃圾填埋场温室气体排放时空分布特征的同时,健全生活垃圾填埋场颗粒物及挥发性有机物等典型大气污染物排放清单相关研究.      

我国农田土壤的主要温室气体CO2、CH4和N2O排放研究

讨论土壤主要温室体ＣＯ２,ＣＨ４和Ｎ２Ｏ的排放过程,计算我国农田生态系统排放ＣＯ２、ＣＨ４和Ｎ２Ｏ的总量。１９９０年,中国地区ＣＯ２、ＣＨ４和Ｎ２Ｏ农田排放源强分别是２６０ＴｇＣＯ２,１７．５ＴｇＣｈ４和０．０９６ＴｇＮ,它们占我国相应这些气体排放量的８％,５０％和１０％,论述了温室气体浓度增加可能以农业产生的影响及应采取的控制对策。     

Life cycle emissions of greenhouse gases associated with burning animal wastes in countries of the European Union

Burning animal wastes for the production of electricity is stimulated in the European Union because of the ‘climate neutrality’ of its life cycle. In doing so fossil fuel inputs in animal husbandry and the N₂O and CH₄ emissions associated with animal husbandry are neglected. Here types of relatively fossil fuel efficient animal husbandry in the European Union are analysed without neglecting such inputs and emissions. The burning of pig derived animal meal, a single-output process, was found to be associated with an emission of greenhouse gases equivalent to 33 × 10²–44 × 10² g CO₂/kilowatt-hour (kWh). In most cases, however, animal wastes can be viewed as outputs from a multi-output production process. If system expansion is not possible, one may allocate multi-output process emissions on the basis of financial value or on a physical basis. Allocating on the basis of energy content of outputs of animal husbandry the burning of manure from poultry, dairy cows and pigs was estimated to generate between 6.3 × 10² and 19.5 × 10² g CO₂ equivalent per kWh. When allocating on the basis of financial value, burning manure in the Netherlands corresponds with net-sequestration, as the monetary value of manure is negative. For chicken manure a net sequestration was found of 2.5 × 10²–3.9 × 10² g CO₂ equivalent/kWh. Thus life cycle emissions of burning animal waste are extremely sensitive to the allocation principle favoured. One may extend the life cycle for instance by including indirect effects such as the substitution of carbon that is lost to agriculture due to burning animal wastes. Such an extension may well lead to a changed emission in terms of CO₂ equivalent emitted per kWh.     

稻油不同轮作模式对农田甲烷和氧化亚氮排放的影响

以南方稻区不同轮作模式为研究对象,采用静态箱-气相色谱法研究水稻-油菜轮作处理的甲烷(CH₄)和氧化亚氮(N₂O)排放特征,并估算稻田增温潜势(GWP)和温室气体排放强度(GHGI).结果表明,双季稻田、一季中(晚)稻田、油菜地和休闲地CH₄平均排放量分别为135.25, 55.64、 5.05和1.89 kg·hm^-2,稻季CH₄排放占不同轮作周年CH₄排放的91.8%～98.5%,稻田土壤水溶性有机碳与CH₄排放呈显著正相关,常规晚稻稻田CH₄排放比杂交晚稻高18.7%(P<0.05);双季稻田、一季中(晚)稻田、油菜地和休闲地N₂O平均排放量分别为0.94、 0.64、 1.38和0.24 kg·hm^-2,油菜地的N₂O排放占周年排放的57.2%～70.2%,双季稻和一季稻处理的冬闲农田N₂O排放占周年排放的17....     

Implication of the cluster analysis using greenhouse gas emissions of Asian countries to climate change mitigation

Climate change caused by excessive emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere has gained serious attention from the global community for a long time. More and more countries have decided to propose their goals such as Paris agreements, to reduce emitting these heat trapping compounds for sustainability. The Asian region houses dramatic changes with diverse religions and cultures, large populations as well as a rapidly changing socio-economic situations all of which are contributing to generating a mammoth amount of GHGs; hence, they require calls for related studies on climate change strategies. After pre-filtering of GHG emission information, 24 Asian countries have been selected as primary target countries. Hierarchical cluster analysis method using complete linkage technique was successfully applied for appropriate grouping. Six groups were categorized through GHG emission properties with major and minor emission sectors based on the GHG inventory covering energy, industrial processes, agriculture, waste, land use change, and forestry and bunker fuels. Assigning six groups using cluster analysis finally implied that the approach to establish GHG emission boundaries was meaningful to develop further mitigation strategies. Following the outcome of this study, calculating amount of reduction potential in suitable sectors as well as determining best practice, technology, and regulatory framework can be improved by policy makers, environmental scientists, and planners at the different levels. Therefore, this work on reviewing a wide range of GHG emission history and establishing boundaries of emission characteristics would provide further direction of effective climate change mitigation for sustainability and resilience in Asia.     

欧盟经济与环境关系问题浅议——基于经济发展、能源消耗与温室气体排放的统计分析

基于Eurostat New Cronos数据库提供的欧盟25个国家2003年的GDP、能源消耗与温室气体排放数据,在SAS系统下,运用描述性分析与回归分析,检测了欧盟25个国家经济发展、能源消耗与温室气体排放之间的相关性.研究表明:GDP、能源消耗和温室气体排放三者之间存在正相关性;相对经济发展的环境代价而言,欧盟新成员国的环境影响问题较欧盟15国更严重.     

On evaluating accuracy of national methane inventories

In the last few years, nearly all industrialized countries have submitted estimates of national inventories of methane and other greenhouse gases as required under the Framework Convention on Climate Change. National inventories of methane emissions in industrialized countries are fairly complete but give some suggestion of underestimation when inventory totals are compared with recent atmospheric measurements and global budgets. In this paper, possible discrepancies are assessed for fossil fuel sources and landfills based on comparisons between independent estimates and national communications. The Kyoto Protocol to the Framework Convention and the European Union make new provisions to develop procedures for technical review of national inventories and projections, and requirements for more thorough documentation from parties, which should improve accuracy. Limits to accuracy and the political implications of underestimation are discussed in this article, along with suggestions for improving inventories through better analysis, documentation and review procedures.     

Methods for project-based mechanisms (JI/CDM)—relevance of IPCC inventory guidelines

A baseline for a project consists of estimates of annual emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) for a given time period without implementing the project. A general three-step process for determining the baseline is suggested. The emission reduction of the project is given by the difference between the baseline and the monitored annual emissions. A preferred method, direct measurement of the emission reduction, is possible for some types of projects. Methods for estimating the annual baseline emissions are not necessary for the latter category, and a definition of this project category is suggested. IPCC Guidelines for National GHG Inventories categorise the emission sources so that only direct emissions from consumption of fuel and feedstock are calculated. There are thus no emission factors for indirect emissions (e.g. electricity consumption or km transported) or emission factors that depend on technology only, independent of consumption of fuel and feedstock. Technology-dependent emission factors may thus need to be developed for estimating indirect emissions and multi-project baselines. Consistency should be sought with the IPCC Guidelines when estimating annual baseline emissions and in monitoring project emissions to ensure comparability with the National Inventories.     

基于IVE模型和大数据分析的杭州市道路移动源主要温室气体排放清单研究

利用IVE模型和对杭州市机动车排放管理数据库大数据的分析,得到杭州市2015年各类机动车主要温室气体高分辨率排放清单,分析了排放分担情况及时间变化特征,并利用Arc GIS及杭州市路网信息建立了1 km×1 km网格化空间分布.结果表明,杭州市道路移动源温室气体排放中CO_2、CH_4和N_2O的年排放量分别为818.11×10~4、0.85×10~4和0.07×10~4t,合计856.79×10~4t(以CO2当量计).从温室气体种类来看,CO_2占道路移动源温室气体排放总量的绝大部分,为95.5%;从机动车类型来看,小微型客车对道路移动源温室气体排放的贡献率最大,占72.8%;从道路类型的排放情况来看,杭州市市中心、城区、城郊和郊区中温室气体合计CO_2当量贡献率最高的均为主干路,分别为43.4%、61.8%、58.0%和42.4%.杭州市道路移动源温室气体排放强度均呈现由城市中心向城市边缘递减的趋势,同时温室气体排放量日变化特征明显,均出现弱双峰现象.     

崇明东滩芦苇湿地温室气体排放通量及其影响因素

通过静态箱-气相色谱法对崇明东滩芦苇群落在生长周期内的3种温室气体——CH₄、N₂O和CO₂的排放、吸收特征进行研究. 结果表明:芦苇群落湿地CH₄排放通量受温度影响较大,夏季排放通量明显高于其他季节,年均排放通量为74.46μg/(m2·h);N₂O年均排放通量为2.22μg/(m2·h),冬季排放通量最大;CO₂的吸收率季节变化明显,年均排放通量为-101.93mg/(m2·h). 温度、芦苇植株光合作用及呼吸作用是影响CH₄产生和排放的主要因素;而沉积物氮素不足和限制,则是促使芦苇群落表现出对N₂O吸收的原因;芦苇的光合作用及土壤呼吸作用随温度和季节的变化是控制芦苇湿地CO₂的排放和吸收的主要因素. 芦苇植株发达的通气组织是CH₄和N₂O由大气向沉积物扩散的通道,同时分子扩散过程也是沉积物产生的CH₄、N₂O和CO₂扩散到大气中的途径和方式.      

我国典型工程机械燃油消耗量及排放清单研究

建立非道路移动机械排放清单是对其污染进行控制的基础.本研究参考美国环保署NONROAD模型中非道路移动源排放模拟的基本方法,建立基于实际燃油消耗率估算我国工程机械燃油消耗量及排放清单的方法.通过调查分析我国典型工程机械的保有量构成、活动水平、实际燃油消耗率和排放因子等相关参数,估算了2007年我国挖掘机和装载机两类典型工程机械的油耗量及排放量.结果表明,我国2007年挖掘机和装载机的柴油总消耗量为1.21×107 t,占当年全国各行业柴油总消耗量的9.7%;NOx和PM的总排放量分别6.81×105 t和5.31×104 t,与当年全国道路机动车的NOx和PM排放总量相比,工程机械的排放已经不容忽视.尽快加严并有效实施我国工程机械用发动机排放标准对控制其排放具有重要意义.     

Contribution of industrial and developing countries to the atmospheric CO2 concentrations: — impact of the Kyoto protocol

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto protocol made under the Convention, aim at controlling the greenhouse gas emissions and their concentrations in the atmosphere. The contributions of fossil fuel use in industrial and developing countries to the atmospheric CO₂ concentration are calculated using estimates for emission developments and a simple carbon cycle model. The contribution of the industrial countries to the CO₂ concentration increase, above the preindustrial level, is estimated to be about 50 ppm in 1990 if only the emissions from fossil fuels are considered. The contribution from developing countries is about 15 ppm. The contribution from industrial countries would increase by about 20 ppm between 1990 and 2010 if no emission reductions were assumed and by about 15 ppm in the considered rather strict reduction scenario. According to the Kyoto protocol the emissions from industrial countries should be reduced by 5.2% from the 1990 level in about 20 years. This development of the emissions would cause a concentration increase of 18 ppm. The concentration increase due to developing countries between 1990 and 2010 would be about 15 ppm. In order that the present global increase rate of CO₂ concentration 1.5 ppm/a would not be exceeded, steeper reductions than those made in Kyoto should be agreed. Increasing global emissions and slow removal of CO₂ from the atmosphere makes it difficult to reach the ultimate objective of the Climate Convention, the stabilisation of the atmospheric concentration.     

Sectoral emission inventories of greenhouse gases for 1990 on a per country basis as well as on 1°×1°

A set of global greenhouse gas emission inventories has been compiled per source category for the 1990 annual emissions of the direct greenhouse gases CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O, as well as of the indirect greenhouse gases (ozone precursors) CO, NO_x and NMVOC, and of SO₂. The inventories are available by sector, both on a per country/region basis and on a 1°×1° grid. Developed by TNO and RIVM for constructing the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) Version 2.0, in co-operation with the Global Emission Inventory Activity (GEIA) of IGAC/IGBP, the inventories meet the needs of both policy-makers and atmospheric modellers. The data sources for activity data, emission factors and grid maps are discussed with the focus on anthropogenic sources of primarily CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O. The estimates of a standard group of anthropogenic sources are presented for each compound per world region.     

道路机动车温室气体排放评估与情景分析:以北京市为例

基于LEAP模型（long-range energy alternatives planning system）评估北京市历史阶段（2000—2018年）道路机动车温室气体排放量的变化规律,并设置5种情景预测未来阶段（2019—2030年）机动车保有量、能源需求、温室气体排放量的发展趋势,探究达峰年份,寻求最优发展路径。结果显示:未来北京市机动车保有量仍将持续增长,但平均年增长率降低至1.63%。机动车温室气体排放总量已于2013年达峰,峰值为21758563 t CO_2e,对应能源消耗量为306383 TJ,未来所有情景下机动车温室气体排放量均呈不同程度下降。单一措施中提高机动车燃料经济性的减排效果最佳,综合3种减排措施的ODS情景（最优发展情景）是最优发展路径。     

放牧对内蒙古草原温室气体排放的影响

静态箱-气相色谱法用于测定内蒙古典型草原温室气体排放.禁牧草原及放牧草原吸收CH₄、排放N₂O和CO₂各自有其相对固定的季节变化形式,草原和大气交换温室气体通量的季节变化形式主要受年度气候变化所控制,而土壤、植被类型、降雨量等禁牧因素和放牧强度等人为因素仅影响排放强度.与禁牧草原相比,自由放牧降低了羊草草原对CH4的吸收和对N₂O的排放,但大大增加了CO₂的排放量.随着放牧强度的增加,草原温室气体排放强度呈线性迅速增长.