快速城市化对区域生态环境影响的时空过程及评价

综合景观生态学与地统计学方法,尝试构建基于"遥感(RS)数据分类→土地利用变化制图→景观格局分析→GIS地统计分析"的区域环境影响评价方法,定量研究了区域环境变化的时空变化特征.案例研究采用2000、2004和2006年遥感数据,监测快速城市化背景下连云港港湾地区城市用地扩张特征、盐田湿地损失、填海造地(港口扩建等)以及耕地退化等关键的区域环境变化,分析评价了区域景观格局特征和生态环境效应,进而评价了快速城市化背景下区域环境影响强度的时空分异.在城市规划和区域发展战略驱动下,整个区域环境影响强度分布及变化规律与城市扩张强度与方向基本一致,高环境影响强度区是受人类干扰最大、生态系统最脆弱以及环境被破坏程度最深的部分,也是当前和未来进行环境调控重点地区.     

Future land-use change scenarios for the Black Sea catchment

Plausible future scenarios have been created for the Black Sea catchment, focussing on spatially explicit alternatives for land-use changes. Four qualitative storylines (HOT, ALONE, COOP and COOL) were first developed, based on interpretation of the respective global scenarios (A1, A2, B1 and B2) produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Quantitative statistical downscaling techniques were then used to disaggregate the outputs of global scenarios at a regional level. The resulting land-use maps were spatially allocated at 1 km resolution in the Metronamica model, using a set of factors related to the identified drivers of change. The land-use change model was calibrated on historical trends of land-cover change (MODIS 2001 and 2008) translated into spatial allocation rules, and future land-use projections (IMAGE, 2001) were adopted. Suitability and constraint maps and population trends were used to regulate the modelling process. The calibrated model was validated by statistical procedures, visual evaluation and stakeholder involvement in order to ensure its plausibility and accuracy. This methodology bridged the gap between the global and regional scales. Four simulated future states were produced for the main land-use classes–forest, grassland, cropland and built-up areas, as well as scrublands, crops/natural vegetation and barren land–for 2025 and 2050. The results suggest that the features highlighted in these scenarios are guided by global trends, such as population rise and decreasing agriculture, but with different growth rates and a variety of spatial patterns, with regional variations resulting from local backgrounds and policy objectives. This study aims to provide future land-use data as a potential geographical tool to assist policy makers in addressing environmental emergencies such as water stress and pollution. In particular, the exploration of plausible futures can support future assessments to comply with the EU Water Framework Directive and Integrated Coastal Zone Management policies around the Black Sea.     

Methodological considerations for nitrogen policies in the Netherlands including a new role for research

The Netherlands has attempted to follow EU guidelines in developing national policies to reduce pollution of groundwater by nitrates originating from (over) fertilized agricultural land. The EU has not been satisfied with these policies and this is resulting in legal conflicts. National policies have focused on nitrogen budgeting and on fertilization rates, over-simplifying the crucial role of soils during the leaching of nitrates to groundwater. As an alternative, a dynamic approach using simulation modeling is introduced as is illustrated for a study area in the Netherlands. A number of considerations for future policy directions are suggested, including requirements for research: (i) promotion of research aimed at improving and maintaining nutrient use efficiency at farm level; (ii) promotion of joint learning experiences between farmers and researchers, where farmers’ organizations could act as “research consortia”; (iii) emphasis on site and time specific management (precision agriculture) in policy development, and provision of site-specific advice via modern information and communication technologies; (iv) clearer guidelines for groundwater monitoring procedures, including additional monitoring at greater depths and consideration of groundwater quality from an appropriate regional perspective; (v) groundwater monitoring should take place at locations selected according to specific hydro-geological characteristics, rather than being executed at random and (vi) clear goals that are defined within existing and future policies at EU and international level, should allow for regional differentiation in indicators; these being the outcome of negotiations between farmers or their representatives, policy makers and researchers.     

1986～2008年中国区域环境质量变化差异研究

从污染物排放量、污染物处理能力和单位土地面积的污染物排放量等方面选取中国28个省市区的18项环境指标数据,运用主成分分析、标准差、Mann-Kendall和聚类分析法,研究1986～2008年间中国区域环境质量差异及格局变化.研究表明,这期间中国区域环境质量差异呈现波动缓慢上升,分为1986～2000、2000～200...     

High-resolution spatial distribution of greenhouse gas emissions in the residential sector

The development of high-resolution greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories is an important step towards emission reduction in different sectors. However, most of the spatially explicit approaches that have been developed to date produce outputs at a coarse resolution or do not disaggregate the data by sector. In this study, we present a methodology for assessing GHG emissions from the residential sector by settlements at a fine spatial resolution. In many countries, statistical data about fossil fuel consumption is only available at the regional or country levels. For this reason, we assess energy demand for cooking and water and space heating for each settlement, which we use as a proxy to disaggregate regional fossil fuel consumption data. As energy demand for space heating depends heavily on climatic conditions, we use the heating degree day method to account for this phenomenon. We also take the availability of energy sources and differences in consumption patterns between urban and rural areas into account. Based on the disaggregated data, we assess GHG emissions at the settlement level using country and regional specific coefficients for Poland and Ukraine, two neighboring countries with different energy usage patterns. In addition, we estimate uncertainties in the results using a Monte Carlo method, which takes uncertainties in the statistical data, calorific values, and emission factors into account. We use detailed data on natural gas consumption in Poland and biomass consumption for several regions in Ukraine to validate our approach. We also compare our results to data from the EDGAR (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research), which shows high agreement in places but also demonstrates the advantage of a higher resolution GHG inventory. Overall, the results show that the approach developed here is universal and can be applied to other countries using their statistical information.

     

Towards the harmonization of water-related policies for managing drought risks across the EU

Drought is recognized as a major issue in the EU, particularly in the Mediterranean region, posing risks to the environment as well as to local and regional economies. The EU policy on water management is continuously evolving, particularly in relation to water scarcity and drought. Starting with the Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC), which sets the general policy framework for water management across the EU, the EC Communication on Water Scarcity and Drought COM(2007) 414 final set the priorities for managing water scarcity and drought risks. Three follow-up reports (COM(2008) 875 final, COM(2010) 228 final and COM(2011) 133) highlighted achievements and yearly progress within the context of the implementation of the Water Framework Directive, whereas guidance has further been provided through the issue of Technical Reports (e.g. the EC Water Scarcity Drafting Group Technical Report 2008–023 on Drought Management, Including agricultural, drought indicators and climate change aspects). The 2012 EU Water Review (“Blue Print for Safeguarding European Waters” will assess achievements and identify further requirements towards long-term sustainable water use across the EU. However, a harmonized approach on drought risk management at the EU level is still lacking, whereas drought risk in several countries and regions has not been yet fully integrated in water management and relevant sectoral policies.This paper focuses on a proposed paradigm shift from crisis to risk management, which is currently gaining ground as a means of reducing societal vulnerability to droughts. The paper underlines the importance of engaging into risk assessment and management practices and identifies policy gaps and requirements for further improvement of the drought management policy framework at all levels of governance: at the EU, at the national and at the river basin and regional levels.     

Policy coherence in climate governance in Caribbean Small Island Developing States

Climate governance in Small Island developing States (SIDS) is a pressing priority to preserve livelihoods, biodiversity and ecosystems for the next generations. Understanding the dynamics of climate change policy integration is becoming more crucial as we try to measure the success of environmental governance efforts and chart new goals for sustainable development. At the international level, climate change policy has evolved from single issue to integrated approaches towards achieving sustainable development. New actors, new mechanisms and institutions of governance with greater fragmentation in governance across sectors and levels (Biermann and Pattberg, 2008) make integration of policy in the area of climate change governance even more of a challenge today. What is the Caribbean reality regarding policy coherence in climate change governance? Are the same climate change policy coherence frameworks useful or indeed applicable for environmental governance in developing states more generally and for SIDS in particular? What are the best triggers to achieve successful climate change policy integration in environmental governance—especially as the complex interconnectivity of new actors, institutions and mechanisms make the process of integration even more challenging? What facilitates and what hampers climate policy integration in the regional Caribbean context? This article reviews the debates around policy coherence for climate change governance, creates a framework to test or measure policy coherence and examines how relevant this has been to regional climate change governance processes in Commonwealth Caribbean States. The study found that though at the regional level, there is substantial recognition of the importance of and mechanics involved in climate policy coherence, this has not translated to policy coherence at the regional and national levels. There is a large degree of fragmentation in the application of climate policy in each Caribbean Island with no mechanism to breach the gap. Silos in public environmental governance architectures, unwillingness to share data, insufficient political will; unsustainable project-based funding and lack of accountability among actors are the main challenges to climate policy coherence. The findings fill a gap in the literature on the elements of climate policy coherence from a SIDS perspective.     

河北省粮食产量空间格局差异变化研究

为揭示河北省粮食产量空间格局分布特征,因地制宜地制定区域粮食安全生产政策,论文运用ESDA空间相关分析理论结合GIS技术,分析了1986—2006年河北省138个县的粮食产量空间差异变化规律、特征和成因,并提出相应的粮食安全生产政策与措施。研究结果表明:研究期内省域范围内粮食产量Moran’sI指数的平均值为0.346,存在较强的空间聚集格局;粮食产量局部空间集聚显著区主要分布在唐山—石家庄山前平原区高产区(HH)和张家口—承德坝上高原低产区(LL),1986年、1996年、2006年落入HH和LL象限的县分别占总样本数的55.07%、66.67%和71.74%,粮食产量空间集聚效果显著;20 a内粮食产量重心由北向西南方向转移42.7 km;粮食产量的主要影响因素为有效灌溉面积、化肥施用量、农业机械总动力、粮食播种面积等。     

渝宜高速（重庆段）对土地利用变化驱动及景观格局的响应

为深入认识道路对土地利用/土地覆被变化的作用过程和机制,确定道路的影响范围和强度,论文选取渝宜高速（重庆段）两侧15 km缓冲带为研究区,基于1986、2000、2007和2013年4期遥感影像数据,利用ArcGIS技术和景观生态学方法,从4个分段、3个尺度探讨了高速公路驱动下土地利用和景观格局演变的梯度差异及其对道路演变的响应。结果表明,1986-2013年,研究区土地利用变化规律正在由“点”往“轴”向格局转变;2013年西段低山丘陵区、中段低山宽谷区、中段中低山峡谷区道路的影响范围分别是10、7、5 km,东段中山峡谷区道路效应不明显;总体来看,公路沿线3 km范围内土地利用开发强度高,并且4个分段的土地利用综合程度自西向东逐步降低;在道路的驱动下,全区景观格局的变化局限在一定范围内,对于西段低山丘陵区和中段低山宽谷区的景观格局显著变化在5 km内,中段中低山峡谷区、东段中山峡谷区的变化主要集中在4和3 km内,影响域内景观破碎化程度加剧,景观稳定性降低,生态景观风险增加;各分段土地利用和景观格局变化空间差异与其通车时间存在正相关关系,同时受区域经济和地形因素以及环境政策的影响。研究结论有助于丰富对生态脆弱区道路效应的理解,为区域交通规划及土地资源持续利用提供科学依据。     

近20年中国粮食生产变化特征及其对区域粮食供需格局的影响

中国是一个农业大国,用占世界不到9%的耕地养活了占世界近20%的人口。国家及区域尺度粮食安全问题一直备受关注。以省为研究单元,借助GIS空间分析与统计工具,分析了1999—2018年中国粮食生产变化的总体特征、地域格局演变特征及这些变化对区域粮食供需格局的影响。研究结果表明：全国粮食总产量呈现显著增加的趋势,增长率为0.11亿t/年。北方粮食总产量呈显著增长趋势,而南方粮食总产量基本维持稳定。玉米产量的增加对这些变化起到了主导作用。在省域尺度上,近20年五种主要粮食作物（稻谷、小麦、玉米、豆类和薯类）产量时空变化具有较大差异。粮食产量的变化对区域粮食供需格局产生了较大影响。特别是东南沿海地区的广东、浙江、福建三省,从稻谷和小麦两大口粮供过于求型变为了供给不足型省份。但在全国尺度上,人均粮食占有量在Y 1999—2003时段（1999—2003年五年平均情况）和Y 2014—2018时段（2014—2018年五年平均情况）分别为368.0 kg/人和461.5 kg/人;人均两大口粮占有量在Y 1999—2003时段和Y 2014—2018时段分别为220.3 kg/人和247.6 kg/人。播种面积的变化是全国及区域尺度上粮食作物产量变化的直接原因。但其根本原因则更多归因于土地利用价值驱动的属性、功能及质量的变化。此外,根据导致耕地减少的四种主要类型——“非农化”“非粮化”“荒废化”和“生态化”,探讨了其形成原因并提出相应的提高区域粮食生产的对策建议,以期对区域粮食种植格局调整及实现两大口粮需求省份向自给型省份转型提供参考。     

Ecosystem services for water policy: Insights across Europe

In this research we explored how the concepts and approaches of ecosystem services are currently used in water management in Europe, in the application of River Basin Management Plans (RBMP) developed for the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD). Five case studies have been considered, located in the River Basin Districts of the Po river (Italy), Scotland (United Kingdom), Scheldt river (Belgium), Danube river (Romania), Sado and Mira rivers and Ribeiras do Algarve (Portugal). These cases represent different regional contexts of application of this EU water policy, with specific socio-economic drivers and environmental issues. Each case study has developed an operational framework to analyse ecosystem services in practice together with a group of local stakeholders. In each regional case, we examined how EU water policy and RBMPs are implemented, considered legal and planning instruments from the national to the local scale, and we analysed the use of ecosystem service terms and concepts in the relevant planning instruments. In parallel, we explored the view of local stakeholders and water managers on the topic, collecting their opinion on three major aspects: the usefulness of the concepts and approaches of ecosystem services for WFD river basin management plans, the risks and benefits of their use, and the knowledge needs to put the concepts into practice. The major drawback of the ecosystem service approach seems to be the challenge for practitioners of understanding new concepts and methodologies, while the major advantages are that it highlights all the hidden benefits of a water body in good health and promotes multi-functionality and sustainability in water management. The results of this study provide a picture across Europe of the current use of the concepts of ecosystem services in the RBMP and relevant insight on the opinion of local stakeholders and water managers.     

The social dimension of biodiversity policy in the European Union: Valuing the benefits to vulnerable communities

This paper uses GIS-based mapping tools and economic valuation of ecosystem goods and services to explore the social dimension of biodiversity policy. We investigate the linkages between biodiversity, ecosystem service values, and socio-economic vulnerability indicators in a spatially explicit framework and at different geographic scales. Our focus is on Europe, where biodiversity and ecosystem benefits have been well studied for many ecosystems, such as forests, coastal ecosystems and freshwater wetlands. The analysis focuses in particular on rural agricultural areas and remote mountainous regions accounting for the differences across various income groups, both at national and regional levels. The results of the study provide useful insights for EU policymakers in designing policy instruments that can promote biodiversity conservation and prevent natural resource degradation, on the one hand, while contributing to social stability and human livelihoods, on the other hand.     

Regional efforts to mitigate climate change in China: a multi-criteria assessment approach

The task of mitigating climate change is usually allocated through administrative regions in China. In order to put pressure on regions that perform poorly in mitigating climate changes and highlight regions with best-practice climate policies, this study explored a method to assess regional efforts on climate change mitigation at the sub-national level. A climate change mitigation index (CCMI) was developed with 15 objective indicators, which were divided into four categories, namely, emissions, efficiency, non-fossil energy, and climate policy. The indicators’ current level and recent development were measured for the first three categories. The index was applied to assess China’s provincial performance in climate protection based on the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method. Empirical results show that the middle Yangtze River area and southern coastal area perform better than other areas in mitigating climate change. The average performance of the northwest area in China is the worst. In addition, climate change mitigation performance has a negative linear correlation with energy self-sufficiency ratio but does not have a significant linear correlation with social development level. Therefore, regional resource endowments had better be paid much more attention in terms of mitigating climate change because regions with good resource endowments in China tend to perform poorly.     

CLUE-S模型及其在奈曼旗土地利用时空动态变化模拟中的应用

在对目前常用的土地利用变化模型进行调研的基础上,认为CLUE-S模型是众多模型中适用于区域土地利用变化研究的一种较好的模型;它是根据系统论的观点,在深刻理解土地利用系统内土地利用变化特征(包括关联性、竞争性、稳定性以及等级性等)的基础上构建而成,具有同步模拟不同土地利用变化的能力。论文以奈曼旗为例,根据1985年的空间图形数据,结合道路、居民点、城镇、水域的分布、以及地形和土壤等驱动因素,对其2000年的土地利用变化格局进行模拟;并用2000年的土地利用现状图对模拟结果进行检验。结果显示,在基本单元(500m×500m栅格)的水平上,模拟的正确率为85%,Kappa指数值是0.80。说明CLUE-S模型具有成功模拟区域土地利用时空动态变化的能力,是值得向国内同行推荐的一种较好的LUCC模型。     

禁牧政策及其效应解析

近年来,各地对脆弱生态环境的改善手段逐步从生态建设为主转向建设和保护并重的方向。禁牧政策便是影响重大的保护措施之一。通过对实施禁牧政策较早的、位于农牧交错带的内蒙古伊金霍洛旗的实地调查和分析发现,全年禁牧政策对保护和恢复面积广大的林草地生态环境很有效,但它与当地农牧户畜牧业生产的现实矛盾较大,执行率只有52.98％。因此,提出改变限制性禁牧政策为引导性禁牧政策的观点,实行有弹性的禁牧政策,以及农牧户改变畜牧业生产方式和调整畜种结构等政策调适建议。     

江西省林地面积变化原因探析

基于栅格面积成分数据,构建了研究林地面积变化原因的计量经济模型,采用Tobit回归分析方法估计了自然环境条件和社会经济因素对江西省林地面积变化的影响。文章遴选出了包括人口、人均GDP、区位条件等在内的影响江西省林地面积变化的主要因素,分析了各种因素驱动江西省林地面积变化的机理,提出了江西省加强林地保护、促进林地面积增加的一个重要途径--加快经济发展,特别是通过加快基础设施建设促进相对落后地区的经济发展,发挥经济增长对林地保育的积极作用。同时研究还发现,积极转移农村剩余劳动力,减少人口对周边林地的压力,也是缓解江西省毁林垦荒压力的重要手段之一。研究结论为江西省制订并实施林地资源保护与开发利用政策提供了具有参考价值的信息。     

区域尺度土壤环境地球化学基线估算方法及其应用研究

区域土壤环境地球化学基线可为区域尺度地球表层系统中物质变化提供丰富的数据信息,并可据此评价自然和人为活动对土壤环境中化学物质浓度变化的影响.本研究以长江、珠江三角洲地区As、Cd、Hg、Pb、Se等10种微量元素的土壤环境地球化学基线为例,探讨了运用累积频率曲线法和土壤面积加权平均法分别估算了不同类别土壤和整个区域土壤的环境地球化学基线,取得了较为一致的结果.并通过基线比较反映地球化学富集作用和人为活动对土壤环境中微量元素积累与污染的影响.较为典型的是近20年来珠江三角洲地区农业土壤中Cd由过去0.035mg/kg增加到目前的0.13～0.22mg/kg,Hg也由过去的0.045mg/kg增加到目前的0.15mg/kg左右,区域化污染趋势已经显现.     

The natural advantage of regions: linking sustainability,innovation, and regional development in Australia

The combined impacts of the financial crisis and climate change are driving the evolution of sustainable business and changing the way that governments plan for development. Markets are emerging for a range of environmentally orientated products and services as societies move (or lurch) towards reducing impacts and adapt to changing conditions. National governments are actively formulating policy and providing investment to develop green economies as one of the responses to the global financial crisis. Many of the political and economic drivers have been focused at the international and national scale, and while critical for setting the national framework for development, it often neglects the key role that regions and localities can play in ecological modernization. This paper explores two regional case studies in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, that are initiating shifts towards networks of sustainable businesses and communities and offers recommendations for further policy development. The focus of this paper is on the evolving regional sustainability market and its relationship to other social institutions including governments, communities and the individual. The unifying concept is the idea of the ‘natural advantage’, a model that integrates innovation and sustainability as a part of the regional development policy agenda.     

基于农户满意度的耕地保护经济补偿政策绩效评价及障碍因子诊断

农户是耕地保护经济补偿政策的直接受益者,其满意度直接关系到耕地保护经济补偿政策的成效。论文从农户满意度的视角来研究耕地保护补偿政策绩效及其障碍因子的诊断方法,可为提高耕地保护补偿政策绩效提供决策依据。选取在全国创新探索农田生态补偿的上海市闵行区、苏州张家港市和率先试点耕地保护基金的四川省成都市为实施耕地保护补偿政策的典型地区,采用熵权改进的TOPSIS 法和障碍度模型,对耕地保护经济补偿政策绩效评价及其障碍因子诊断进行实证研究。研究结果表明:① 成都市、张家港市和上海市闵行区耕地保护补偿政策农户评价的绩效值分别为0.529、0.494 和0.461,对应的绩效水平分别为良好、一般和较差,农户满意度绩效存在显著的区域差异;② 影响三个地区耕地保护经济补偿政策农户绩效评价排序前5 位的障碍因子依次为对耕地保护补偿账务公开是否满意(C₈)、对政府部门关于耕地保护补偿资金的监督管理是否满意(C₁₀)、对耕地保护补偿资金使用要求是否满意(C₉)、对耕地保护补偿标准是否满意(C₃)和对耕地保护补偿资金分配是否满意(C₇);③ 建立耕地保护补偿政策实施绩效评价指标体系,并采用熵权改进的TOPSIS 法和障碍度模型对其进行评价,是合理可行的。不仅如此,通过障碍因子诊断,其指标评价信息可以揭示出耕地保护补偿政策存在的绩效问题,有利于促进耕地保护补偿政策绩效的进一步提升和完善。     

农田保护经济补偿政策的实施成效及影响因素分析-闵行区、张家港市和成都市的实证

以上海市闵行区、江苏省张家港市以及四川省成都市的6 个乡镇42 个村545 个农户为研究对象,分析典型地区试行农田保护经济补偿政策的实施成效及影响因素。研究表明：①农田保护补偿政策的经济激励措施一定程度上调动农民种田积极性,对促进粮食增产和提高农民收入等有一定成效,但保护责任附带的规划管制措施却相对减弱农民在维护农田设施、农田生产等公共物品投入方面的积极性;②政策实施成效具有显著的空间差异性,已制定实施计划、但农户尚未领取到补偿款项的江苏省张家港市金港镇和乐余镇的农民参与农田保护补偿政策的积极性最弱,而在全国最早实施耕地保护基金政策的四川省成都市永安镇、金桥镇和江源镇农民对政策成效的评价则相对较好;③区域因素中村庄位置以及农户个体因素中村干部经历、政策关注度等对政策成效有显著影响。建议通过多样化补偿模式,优先满足中低收入农户的经济补偿需求,激励农民农田利用与保护的积极性,提升农田生态环境质量。