Considering agro-ecosystems as ecological funds for collective design: New perspectives for environmental policy

Enhancing agro-ecosystem sustainability raises difficult challenges for environmental policy: it requires both increasing knowledge on these complex systems to design effective solutions and coordinating stakeholders with diverging interests. However, most existing environmental policies consider ecosystems’ desirable properties as given, leading ecosystem managers to favor “turnkey” solutions. How could public policy better support local collective initiatives aiming at reconciling agriculture and the environment? This paper presents an empirical case study from western France, in which a partnership between an agricultural cooperative and an ecological research center resulted in a collective design initiative. We conceptually model this initiative drawing upon recent design theories and Georgescu-Roegen’s ‘fund-flow’ model, defining ‘ecological funds’ as the starting point of a collective design process. The results highlight the importance of developing policy instruments that can better support local innovation processes through greater democratization. Adopting a design approach to sustainable agricultural landscape management could be particularly fruitful in situations where collective action is necessary but where there is no common good recognized as such, and no existing community identified.     

Adaptation of Russian agriculture to climatic variability: The role of federal and provincial policies

This paper draws on the example of Tyumen Province, a federal subject of the Russian Federation, to explore the role that policies play in hindering agricultural producers’ adaptation to climate change. Its objective is to contribute to a better understanding of maladaptation at the policy level. The discourse analysis method is used to explain perceptions of climate variability in Tyumen Province and its impact on agriculture. The document analysis method is used to assess agricultural policy in Tyumen Province and its implications for producers’ adaptation to climate change. The results suggest that although agricultural producers and policymakers are acutely aware both of climate variability and the resulting loss of agricultural output, provincial agricultural policy generally fails to encourage better adaptation by agricultural producers or to support their greater economic security. Instead, it primarily focuses on meeting food production targets and thus limits the producers’ own independent moves towards adaptation. The phenomenon of maladaptation at the policy level is discussed in consideration of the general public’s and the authorities’ awareness of climate change and climate variability, and the role of science in shaping this awareness.     

Pursuing an integrated development and climate policy framework in Africa: options for mainstreaming

Climate change presents a major threat to the prospects for sustained economic development in Africa. In spite of this, climate change concerns do not feature prominently in the implementation of national and regional development programmes. The present paper identifies the likely trade-offs and synergies that may emerge from an integrated ‘development-climate’ approach to policy making. Also, the paper presents the case for the formulation and evaluation of an integrated policy approach based on four principle criteria, including; long-term environmental effectiveness, equity considerations, cost-effectiveness and the institutional compatibility of the policy combinations. What is more? The paper suggests specific options for mainstreaming climate change adaptation and mitigation in various sectoral development agenda such as; agricultural intensification, poverty eradication, rural development, urban renewal, energy security of supply and trade. Given the wide divergence of socio-economic systems and the peculiar challenges faced by individual countries in the continent, further research is required on robust country-specific strategies for pursuing an integrated development-climate policy framework.     

Policy and technological constraints to implementation of greenhouse gas mitigation options in agriculture

A recent assessment of agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has demonstrated significant potential for mitigation, but suggests that the full mitigation will not be realized due to significant barriers to implementation. In this paper, we explore the constraints and barriers to implementation important for GHG mitigation in agriculture. We also examine how climate and non-climate policy in different regions of the world has affected agricultural GHG emissions in the recent past, and how it may affect emissions and mitigation implementation in the future. We examine the links between mitigation and adaptation and drives for sustainable development and the potential for agricultural GHG mitigation in the future.We describe how some countries have initiated climate and non-climate policies believed to have direct effects or synergistic effects on mitigating GHG emissions from agriculture. Global sharing of innovative technologies for efficient use of land resources and agricultural chemicals, to eliminate poverty and malnutrition, will significantly mitigate GHG emissions from agriculture.Previous studies have shown that as less than 30% of the total biophysical potential for agricultural GHG mitigation might be achieved by 2030, due to price- and non-price-related barriers to implementation. The challenge for successful agricultural GHG mitigation will be to remove these barriers by implementing creative policies. Identifying policies that provide benefits for climate, as well as for aspects of economic, social and environmental sustainability, will be critical for ensuring that effective GHG mitigation options are widely implemented in the future.     

Institutionalising social learning: Towards systemic and adaptive governance

This paper critically examines how public policy makers limit policy and other institutional design choices by a failure to appreciate (i) how situations may be characterised or framed; (ii) how practices that generate neologisms (invented terms or concepts) or reify (make into a thing) abstract concepts can displace understandings, and (iii) the epistemological bases of governance mechanism choices. An inquiry into the coining of the neologisms ‘wicked’ and ‘tame’ problems is reported and the implications for research and policy practice explored. As practices, neologising, reifying, categorising and typologising have unintended consequences – they remove us from the primary experiences and underlying emotions that provided the motivation for formulating these concepts in the first place. The failure to institutionalise the understandings and experiences that sit behind the invention of the terms ‘wicked’ and ‘tame’ problems (or similar framing choices such as ‘problematique’, ‘messes’, ‘lowland real-life swamps’, ‘resource dilemmas’ or ‘complex adaptive systems’) present systemic constraints to institutionalising social learning as an alternative yet complementary governance mechanism within an overall systemic and adaptive governance framework. Ultimately situations usefully framed as ‘wicked’,’ such as water managing and climate change are problems of relationship – of human beings with the biosphere. Re-framings, such as institutions as social technologies and other research and praxis traditions concerned with the breakdown of relationships may offer ways forward in the purposeful designing and crafting of more effective institutions.     

Decline of ‘biodiversity’ in conservation policy discourse in Australia

Market-based instruments along with conceptualizing the environment as a collection of ‘ecosystem services’ has become increasingly common within environmental and conservation policy. This kind of thinking is also increasingly prominent in the public discourse surrounding environment and conservation policy, particularly in the context of communicating the importance of policy measures. Language used in public discourse can have a powerful influence on how people engage with policy issues, and changes within the biodiversity and conservation discourse may have consequences for public engagement in conservation. We explored how these factors are changing with time by documenting the use of the terms ‘bio’ and the prevalence of economic language in the text of 3553 media releases between 2003 and 2014 from the Australian Government environment portfolio, and 1064 media releases from the Australian Conservation Foundation (ACF). Results show that in the last decade, the term ‘biodiversity’ has become less prevalent whilst economic language has increased in both Australian Government and ACF communication. A further content analysis in a subsample of 745 media releases explored the prevalence of ecosystem services framing, results indicating that it has become a mainstream concept. While this may reflect a strategic response by these agencies to better engage with both the general public and decision makers within what is an increasingly dominant neoliberal paradigm, we argue it may also have unintended (possibly adverse) impacts on how people think about and engage with biodiversity conservation.     

“煤改气”投资对宏观经济的拉动效应:基于北京市可计算一般均衡模型分析

“煤改气”是我国大气污染防治行动计划的政策措施之一,国内外目前对“煤改气”政策实施的环境效果研究较多,但对“煤改气”投资对宏观经济的拉动作用研究较少. 为综合评价“煤改气”政策的整体效果、探讨“煤改气”投资对宏观经济的拉动作用,以北京市为例,构建了北京市可计算一般均衡模型(MRDR-BJ),基于2017年北京市投入产出表,模拟不同情景下“煤改气”投资对宏观经济的拉动效应. 结果表明:随着“煤改气”投资的增加,北京市宏观经济增加值、温室气体排放量、就业量、家庭收入均增加;“煤改气”投资每增加20%,这些宏观指标分别增长0.05%、0.07%、0.07%和0.07%;“煤改气”投资对宏观经济的拉动系数为1.77. 研究显示,“煤改气”投资对宏观经济具有较大的拉动效应,建议全国各地尽快落实“煤改气”规划,以加快大气污染治理、促进生态环境建设,助力我国碳达峰、碳中和中长期目标的实现.      

Availability,addiction and alternatives: three criteria for assessing the impact of peak minerals on society

The concept of ‘peaks’ in the production of natural resources has attracted attention in the area of energy production, with concerns about ‘peak oil’ driving recent research and investment in alternative sources of energy. There are fundamental and important differences between a peak in the production of oil and peaks in the production of metalliferous minerals, but in both cases production changes from ‘easier and less expensive’ early in a resource’s life to ‘difficult and expensive’ as time progresses. The impacts of this change in production circumstances require critical consideration in the governance of national and sub-national mineral endowments.This paper develops a framework for evaluating the impacts of changing patterns of mineral production. The framework considers three criteria: availability of a resource (considering its geological characteristics and geographical distribution); society’s addiction to the resource (its centrality and criticality to economic, social and environmental systems); and the possibility of finding alternatives (whether the resource can be substituted or recovered). An initial assessment against these criteria provides an overview of how a production peak might affect the production of minerals in Australia and the impacts that this might have on the Australian economy.Assessing important resources against these three criteria will be imperative in future considerations regarding the roles minerals and metals play as service providers in our economic, social and environmental systems. Additionally, this analysis should prompt a reassessment of the value of minerals beyond economic measures. Indicators derived from these criteria will inform strategies that can address future changes in production characteristics – meeting challenges with strong governance, and realising opportunities with proactive policy.     

Identifying high-yield low-emission pathways for the cereal production in South Asia

Increasing agricultural production to meet the growing demand for food whilst reducing agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is the major challenge under the changing climate. To develop long-term policies that address these challenges, strategies are needed to identify high-yield low-emission pathways for particular agricultural production systems. In this paper, we used bio-physical and socio-economic models to analyze the impact of different management practices on crop yield and emissions in two contrasting agricultural production systems of the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) of India. The result revealed the importance of considering both management and socio-economic factors in the development of high-yield low-emission pathways for cereal production systems. Nitrogen use rate and frequency of application, tillage and residue management and manure application significantly affected GHG emissions from the cereal systems. In addition, various socio-economic factors such as gender, level of education, training on climate change adaptation and mitigation and access to information significantly influenced the adoption of technologies contributing to high-yield low-emission pathways. We discussed the policy implications of these findings in the context of food security and climate change.     

Global evaluation of the effects of agriculture and water management adaptations on the water-stressed population

Fresh water is one of the most important resources required for human existence, and ensuring its stable supply is a critical issue for sustainable development. The effects of a general set of agriculture and water management adaptations on the size of the world’s water-stressed population were assessed for a specific but consistent scenario on socio-economic development and climate change during the 21st century. To maintain consistency with agricultural land use change, we developed a grid-based water supply–demand model integrated with an agro-land use model and evaluated the water-stressed population using a water withdrawals-to-availability ratio for river basins. Our evaluation shows that, if no adaptation options are implemented, the world’s water-stressed population will increase from 1.8 billion in 2000 to about 3.3 billion in 2050, and then remain fairly constant. The population and economic growth rather than climate change will be dominant factors of this increase. Significant increase in the water-stressed population will occur in regions such as North Africa and the Middle East, India, Other South Asia, China and Southeast Asia. The key adaptation options differ by region, depending on dominant crops, increase in crop demand and so on. For instance, ‘improvement of irrigation efficiency’ and ‘enhancement of reclamation water’ seem to be one of important options to reduce the water stress in Southeast Asia, and North Africa and the Middle East, respectively. The worldwide implementation of adaptation options could decrease the water-stressed population by about 5 % and 7–17 %, relative to the scenario without adaptations, in 2050 and 2100, respectively.     

From pattern to process: landscape fragmentation and the analysis of land use/land cover change

The incorporation of landscape ecological and fragmentation analyses within remote sensing science has expanded the inferential capabilities of such research. This issue presents a series of papers on the use of landscape ecological techniques to explore the relationship between land cover and land use spatial pattern and process in an international, comparative context. Methodologically, researchers seek to link spatial pattern to land use process by integrating geographic information systems (GIS), socio-economic, and remote sensing techniques with landscape ecological approaches. This issue brings together papers at the forefront of this research effort, and illustrates the diversity of methods necessary to evaluate the complex linkages between pattern and process in landscapes across the world. The analyses focus on major forces interacting at the earth’s surface, such as the interface of agricultural and urban land, agriculture and forestry, and other pertinent topics dealing with environmental policy and management. Empirical analyses stem from many different ecological, social and institutional contexts within the Americas, Africa, and Asia.     

Contexualising the tool development process through a knowledge brokering approach: The case of climate change adaptation and agriculture

This article applies a ‘knowledge brokering’ approach to contextualise the development of an integrated computer modelling tool into the real world policy context of adaptation of agriculture to climate change at the EU level. In particular, the article tests a number of knowledge brokering strategies described and theorised in the literature, but seldom empirically tested. The article finds that while the policy context can be used to identify a theoretically informed knowledge brokering strategy, in practice a strategy's ‘success’ is more informed by practical considerations, such as whether the tool development process is knowledge or demand driven. In addition, in practice the knowledge brokering process is found to be dynamic and messy, which is not always apparent in the literature. The article goes on to question the perception that there is always a need (or a desire) to bridge the gap between researchers and policy makers in the tool development process. Rather than a problem of design and communication, the science policy interface may be characterised more by a high level of competition between researchers and research organisations to have their tool legitimised by its use in the policy making process.     

中国省际农业碳排放测算及低碳化水平评价——基于衍生指标与TOPSIS法的运用

农业碳排放量测算及低碳化水平评价,是实现农业绿色发展和制定碳减排计划的重要依据。通过测算2006—2016年中国30个省份的农业碳排放量,并以测算结果为基础,从农业用地、禽畜养殖和农业能源三个方面构造农业碳排放衍生指标,采用基于动态自然权重的TOPSIS法对各省农业低碳化水平进行评价。结果表明：中国农业碳排放总量呈先降后升的“V型”变化,由2006年的91096万t下降至2008年的83521万t,此后稳步增加至2016年的92192万t。农业非能源碳排放量占农业碳排放总量的84%以上,土壤管理是农业非能源碳排放的第一来源。省际农业碳排放衍生指标异质性较强,农业低碳化水平整体不高。研究结果可为农业和环境部门开展低碳农业评价工作提供借鉴。     

Sustainability assessment of a farm in the Chianti area (Italy)

In the study of agricultural systems, where land fertility and environmental conditions are primary factors, it is essential to consider both the efficiency and the environmental sustainability of processes. Emergy analysis, introduced by H.T. Odum [Science 242 (1988) 1132], is an approach developed at the interface between thermodynamics systems ecology. It was here used to obtain sustainability indicators and to assess the efficiency of a complex agricultural system, a farm in the Chianti area.The results for different crops were compared with Italian averages to obtain an idea of the long-term sustainability of this agricultural system. The cultivation of all the crops on the farm, except grapes, was more efficient and had less impact on the environment than the Italian standards. The Chianti grapes were compared not only with the Italian average but also with grapes of similar high quality, ‘Brunello di Montalcino’ and ‘Nobile di Montepulciano’, both grown in the same region. The production of grapes in the Chianti vineyard was more efficient and had an intermediate environmental impact, in the emergy sense, with respect to the other two systems.The proportion of emergy inputs to the farm that are local or renewable is quite high. Thus the emergy analysis demonstrated that the Chianti farm has a relatively good long-term sustainability considering both the whole system, and its individual crops.     

洞庭湖垸外灾害风险区湖洲高效生态农业模式研究

为了协调好防灾减灾与湖洲农业综合开发的关系,运用灾害学和循环经济学以及农业、林业、牧业、水产、生态、系统工程等科学交叉的理论与方法,将灾害防控技术体系、农业生产方式与高效生态农业结构的优化机理融为一体,设计了湖草洲畜、禽、鱼一体化开发的灭螺治鼠防洪技术集成模式,荻芦洲荻、芦、林、牧、农一体化开发的灭螺治鼠抗洪技术集成模式。并分别在典型区域进行了示范,试验表明：与传统农业生方式相比,生态、经济、社会三大效益十分显著。同时致力于湖洲农业产业化,认为在建设好优势农产品生产基地的基础上,大力发展与之相配套的产品加工等商品服务体系和市场体系,促进荻、芦、林、牧等产品精、深加工,延伸产业链,提高产品附加值,从整体上提高湖洲高效生态农业模式的综合效益,使之成为湖区农业经济的新增长点。     

Adapting to risk and perpetuating poverty: Household’s strategies for managing flood risk and water scarcity in Mexico City

Adaptation is typically conceived uniquely in positive terms, however for some populations, investments in risk management can entail significant tradeoffs. Here we discuss the burden for households of coping with, and adapting to, adverse water conditions in economically marginal areas of Mexico City. We argue that households’ efforts to adapt in conditions of marginality can come at the expense of households’ investment in other aspects of human welfare, reinforcing poverty traps. Both economic theory and social-ecological systems analysis point to the importance of cross-scalar investments and institutional support in breaking down persistent poverty traps. Using data from twelve focus groups conducted in Mexico City, we illustrate how such cross-scale connectivity is failing as a result of lack of trust and transparency, the difficulty of collective action, and the devolution of some responsibilities for risk management from the public sector to the household level. We conclude our analysis by arguing for greater attention to these tradeoffs in public policy to help ensure that adaptation does not come at the cost of more generic welfare gains among the most vulnerable populations.     

World Population Projections for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenarios

A survey is made of the latest world population projections issued by the United Nations, World Bank, U.S. Census Bureau, and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Medium variants from all the organizations show excellent agreement with respect to many features of future world population growth. It appears that little would be gained by obtaining additional regional projections made by governments or organizations other than those listed above. In general, the new range of population projections that are candidates for forthcoming IPCC emissions scenarios are narrower and lower than the previous IPCC IS92 population range: a reflection of updated information on the decline of fertility rates in developing countries and the incorporation of a plausible correlation between mortality rates and fertility rates within the IIASA ‘rapid’ and ‘slow’ demographic transition variants. Comments are made on the schematic approach of forecasting CO2 emissions using multiplicative identities such as ‘IPAT’ (impact/emissions = population × affluence × technology). Although the unqualified IPAT model suggests that emissions should scale linearly with population, a number of caveats to this exist, the most important of which may be factor interactions. A brief review is made of conventional thinking about interactions between population growth and economic development. Correlation studies and theory suggest that population growth has a neutral or, at most, weak negative effect on economic growth. Conversely, it is well established that higher per capita incomes are well correlated with lower fertility and mortality rates in developing countries. Therefore, a plausible first-order relationship worth exploring in the next generation of IPCC scenarios is that scenarios with higher average economic growth rates in the developing world should be associated with lower fertility and mortality rates there. Calculations are presented that illustrate the effect this negative correlation could have had on the range of the older IS92 emission scenarios, assuming that all other factors are unchanged. Finally, some policy issues concerning population and global warming are reviewed in connection with the IPCC’s omission of population policy discussion in its 1995 Second Assessment Report.     

Projected impacts to the production of outdoor recreation opportunities across US state park systems due to the adoption of a domestic climate change mitigation policy

Numerous empirical and simulation-based studies have documented or estimated variable impacts to the economic growth of nation states due to the adoption of domestic climate change mitigation policies. However, few studies have been able to empirically link projected changes in economic growth to the provision of public goods and services. In this research, we couple projected changes in economic growth to US states brought about by the adoption of a domestic climate change mitigation policy with a longitudinal panel dataset detailing the production of outdoor recreation opportunities on lands managed in the public interest. Joining empirical data and simulation-based estimates allow us to better understand how the adoption of a domestic climate change mitigation policy would affect the provision of public goods in the future. We first employ a technical efficiency model and metrics to provide decision makers with evidence of specific areas where operational efficiencies within the nation's state park systems can be improved. We then augment the empirical analysis with simulation-based changes in gross state product (GSP) to estimate changes to the states’ ability to provide outdoor recreation opportunities from 2014 to 2020; the results reveal substantial variability across states. Finally, we explore two potential solutions (increasing GSP or increasing technical efficiency) for addressing the negative impacts on the states’ park systems operating budgets brought about by the adoption of a domestic climate change mitigation policy; the analyses suggest increasing technical efficiency would be the most viable solution if/when the US adopts a greenhouse gas reduction policy.     

Values,rules and knowledge: Adaptation as change in the decision context

Responding to global change represents an unprecedented challenge for society. Decision makers tend to address this challenge by framing adaptation as a decision problem, whereby the responses to impacts of change are addressed within existing decision processes centred on defining the decision problem and selecting options. However, this ‘decision-making perspective’ is constrained by societal values and principles, regulations and norms and the state of knowledge. It is therefore unsuitable for addressing complex, contested, cross-scale problems. In this paper we argue that simply broadening the decision-making perspective to account for institutions and values is not enough. We contend the decision-making perspective needs to be connected with a broader ‘decision-context perspective’ that focuses on how the societal system of decision processes affects the manner in which a particular problem is addressed. We describe the decision context as an interconnected system of values, rules and knowledge (vrk). The interaction of systems of vrk both creates and limits the set of practical, permissible decisions; the types of values, rules and knowledge that influence the decision and the capacity for change and transformation in the decision context. We developed a framework to analyse the interactions between values, rules and knowledge and their influence on decision making and decision contexts of adaptation initiatives, and applied it retrospectively to three projects on adaptation to sea-level rise. Our analysis revealed: (1) specific examples of how interactions between vrk systems constrained existing framings of decision making and the development of options for coastal adaptation; (2) limitations in the adaptive management strategies that underpinned the projects and (3) how the linked systems of vrk can allow adaptation practitioners to structure adaptation as a process of co-evolutionary change that enables a broader set of social issues and change processes to be considered. Adaptation projects that focus on the decision context represent a pragmatic alternative to existing decision-focused adaptation. By using the vrk model to diagnose constraints in decision processes, we show how the reframing of adaptation initiatives can reveal new approaches to developing adaptation responses to complex global change problems.