Climate change vulnerability assessments as catalysts for social learning: four case studies in south-eastern Australia

Technical assessments of vulnerability and/or risk are increasingly being undertaken to assess the impacts of climate change. Underlying this is the belief that they will bring clarity to questions regarding the scale of institutional investments required, plausible adaptation policies and measures, and the timing of their implementation. Despite the perceived importance of technical assessments in 'evidence-based' decision environments, assessments cannot be undertaken independent of values and politics, nor are they capable of eliminating the uncertainty that clouds decision-making on climate adaptation As such, assessments can trigger as many questions as they answer, leaving practitioners and stakeholders to question their value. This paper explores the value of vulnerability/risk assessments in climate change adaptation planning processes as a catalyst for learning in four case studies in Southeastern Australia. Data were collected using qualitative interviews with stakeholders involved in the assessments and analysed using a social learning framework. This analysis revealed that detailed and tangible strategies or actions often do not emerge directly from technical assessments. However, it also revealed that the assessments became important platforms for social learning. In providing these platforms, assessments present opportunities to question initial assumptions, explore multiple framings of an issue, generate new information, and galvanise support for collective actions. This study highlights the need for more explicit recognition and understanding of the important role social learning plays in climate change vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning more broadly.     

“熟人社会”农村与“原子化”农村中的生猪养殖废弃物能源化利用——博弈、仿真与现实检验

以生猪粪便制沼气为例,应用博弈论和仿真方法,探究了“熟人社会”农村和“原子化”农村中养猪户的行为演化规律和稳定策略。进而以规模养猪户微观数据为基础,应用计量经济学研究方法,对博弈和仿真结果进行了检验。研究表明：“地方性共识”引致的隐性激励是维系“熟人社会”农村生猪养殖废弃物能源化利用集体行动的重要机制。而在“原子化”农村中,由于人情机制与礼俗机制的衰弱,“地方性共识”近乎消失殆尽,养猪户倾向于成为严格的机会主义者,从而导致生猪养殖废弃物能源化利用集体行动举步维艰。据此,在强化法律法规、政策方针等正式制度建设的同时,还应推动“地方性共识”建设,以乡村文化振兴助推乡村生态振兴。     

多重资本驱动下西安市秦岭北麓S村的空间生产与收缩——基于布尔迪厄理论的管窥

引入布尔迪厄的资本理论,构建多重资本概念模型;以西安市秦岭北麓S村为例,对其在不同类型资本综合影响下的空间生产与收缩过程及机制进行质性研究和可视化分析。结果表明：（1）经济资本的三级循环推动S村物质空间商品化程度不断加深,商户金融资本的差异造成村内经济阶层分化与空间分异,外来经济资本的进入则易诱致社会风险。（2）新生的业缘关系与亲缘、地缘关系交织而成的社会网络等结构性社会资本的变化,引致S村社会空间的混杂和地方认同的分化;社会信任等认知性社会资本的下降造成村民交往空间的内移,并促成新的空间治理秩序。（3）商户个人品味等身体化文化资本创造出多样化的文化空间,政府赋予村庄的集体称号等制度化文化资本推动形成农家乐专业村品牌。（4）元资本主导下,村内三大旅游项目被拆除,S村由空间持续再生产转向空间收缩。（5）自然垄断地租、小规模集体行动优势、元资本的间接调控与直接影响以及双重锁定效应,共同构成S村空间生产与收缩的机制。     

基于统计方法学的焦化类污染场地风险筛选决策研究

利用统计方法学估算场地污染物平均浓度能更客观地反映实际污染程度,这对污染场地风险评估和管理决策具有重要意义. 本研究以某焦化场地中典型污染物——萘为例,分别依据英国环境署颁布的《土壤污染浓度与临界浓度比较导则》(Guidance on Comparing Soil Contamination Data with a Critical Concentration)(简称“英国CL:AIRE导则”),以及美国环境保护署颁布的ProUCL技术导则(ProUCL Technical Guide, Statistical Software for Environmental Applications for Data Sets with and Without Nondetect Observations)(简称“美国ProUCL导则”),基于统计方法学对场地土壤萘浓度进行描述性统计分析、数据审查、分布类型判断及真实平均浓度估算,并根据《土壤环境质量 建设用地土壤污染风险管控标准(试行)》(GB 36600—2018)第一类建设用地的筛选值对场地进行了初步风险评估. 结果表明:污染场地0~1 m土壤萘的真实平均浓度小于GB 36600—2018第一类建设用地筛选值,但1~2 m和2~4 m土壤萘的真实平均浓度大于筛选值;在不同土壤深度上,萘的空间分布特征相似,以场地中心为主要污染源,向四周逐级扩散递减,因此需对场地开展详细风险评估. 此外,通过对比英美两国导则可知,美国ProUCL导则更加严格,利用Q-Q图示法和拟合优度检验法判断场地数据的分布类型,并基于数据分布特征计算相应的95%置信上限值估算污染物的真实平均浓度;而英国CL:AIRE导则相对简单,主要基于中心极限定理通过计算双侧置信区间估算污染物浓度,同时利用空间图判断污染物空间布局,有助于评估场地污染状况. 研究显示,基于统计方法估算场地土壤污染平均浓度可降低风险评估结论的不确定性. 建议我国以英国CL:AIRE导则中的统计方法为基础估计污染物真实平均浓度,逐步融入美国ProUCL导则中的统计方法以提高风险决策水平,对实现我国污染场地精细化风险评估具有重要意义.      

运用丝状真菌生物质生物吸附镉(Ⅱ)污染物的研究

丝状真菌生物质是研制可用作生物修复镉污染的生物吸附剂的重要生物材料。文章首先概述了镉的危害性与镉污染的真菌修复机制;列表比较了近20年研究中用于生物吸附Cd⁽²⁺⁾的丝状真菌菌种资源、镉吸附量和工艺特性参数;详细阐明了利用丝状真菌生物质生物吸附法除镉工艺过程涉及的技术方法和基本原理,包括丝状真菌生物质材料的预处理方法,分批生物吸附除镉工艺的考虑因素及其影响效应,固定床吸附柱生物吸附除镉工艺,以及生物吸附法去除含镉工业废水中Cd(2+)的丝状真菌菌种资源、镉吸附量和工艺特性参数;详细阐明了利用丝状真菌生物质生物吸附法除镉工艺过程涉及的技术方法和基本原理,包括丝状真菌生物质材料的预处理方法,分批生物吸附除镉工艺的考虑因素及其影响效应,固定床吸附柱生物吸附除镉工艺,以及生物吸附法去除含镉工业废水中Cd⁽²⁺⁾的实践效果。     

地下油罐泄漏区污染源的自动识别

地下油罐泄漏隐蔽性大,不易被及时发现,而且泄漏出的烃类化合物毒性强,对地下水会造成严重污染.为了对某一地下油罐污染源位置和强度进行准确识别,本研究结合现场调查结果,建立了该地下油罐泄漏区的石油污染物反应运移模型.在基本确定污染源泄漏区范围的前提下,进一步建立地下油罐泄漏区污染源的识别模型,并利用遗传算法对泄漏区污染源的位置和泄漏强度进行了自动识别,进而通过参数敏感性分析来评价和比较不同参数对污染物运移结果的影响.结果表明,运移模型中与地下水流场变化相关的特征参数（如开采量、水力坡度、渗透系数等）对污染物运移结果的影响相对比较明显.对于污染源来说,研究不同污染组分在含水层中的化学和生物化学变化显得尤为重要.     

碳黑大气颗粒物的环境效应

碳黑颗粒物来自高温燃烧过程,它对可见光辐射具有最大能力的吸收作用。新近研究结果证实,碳黑大气颗粒物具有温室效应的作用,是引起地球气候变暖的重要角色。这种作用可以通过碳黑颗粒物对地球辐射平衡的直接效应和间接效应得以实现。以往人们对碳黑颗粒物这种作用的估计偏低。人们在未来减低大气温室效应的战略中,大气污染削减物质应将碳黑颗粒物包括在内。碳黑颗粒物还具有抑制对流层中臭氧形成、干扰局部地区水文循环和降低能见度的其他环境效应。     

How are coastal households responding to climate change?

In Australia, shared responsibility is a concept advocated to promote collective climate change adaptation by multiple actors and institutions. However, a shared response is often promoted in the absence of information regarding actions currently taken; in particular, there is limited knowledge regarding action occurring at the household scale. To address this gap, we examine household actions taken to address climate change and associated hazards in two Australian coastal communities. Mixed methods research is conducted to answer three questions: (1) what actions are currently taken (mitigation, actions to lobby for change or adaptation to climate impacts)? (2) why are these actions taken (e.g. are they consistent with capacity, experience, perceptions of risk); and (3) what are the implications for adaptation? We find that households are predominantly mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and that impact orientated adaptive actions are limited. Coping strategies are considered sufficient to mange climate risks, proving a disincentive for additional adaptive action. Influencing factors differ, but generally, risk perception and climate change belief are associated with action. However, the likelihood of more action is a function of homeownership and a tendency to plan ahead. Addressing factors that support or constrain household adaptive decision-making and action, from the physical (e.g. homeownership) to the social (e.g. skills in planning and a culture of adapting to change) will be critical in increasing household participation in adaptation.     

The Norwegian Red List between science and policy

This article explores how science and policy interact using the Norwegian Red List 2006 as a case example. The paper draws on concepts from the sociology of science, interviews with key informants, as well as analysis of a Norwegian newspaper debate about a controversial conservation issue.The paper highlights how the relationship between science and policy can best be described as an interaction rather than simply a transmission of knowledge from one to the other. In addition, the study focuses on the active construction and communication of the science–policy relationship. Regulators, scientists and NGOs, it is argued, strategically define the relationship between science and policy as more straightforward than it really is.The paper suggests that the shaping, simplification and communication of scientific knowledge is best understood as a social process that occurs in three stages, which may overlap to varying degrees. The shaping of scientific knowledge for policy occurs first within the scientific domain. The shaping, we suggest, is the result of both the broader institutional context and a more specific micro-level social context, but it is also the outcome of requirements inherent in the genre of science communication. In the second stage, regulators and actors in the public debate redefine and simplify scientific knowledge to make it better suited to the policy arena. In the final stage, scientists, regulators and NGOs actively seek to define science as objectively true, and independent of the policy arena. By doing so, they are able to strengthen their arguments, regardless of their position on particular issues. But they also contribute to shrouding the social nature of scientific production.     

Uncertainty,complexity and controversy in dolphin threat management: A role for post-normal science?

Managing fishing threats to populations of endemic, threatened Hector’s and Māui dolphins around New Zealand is a complex and controversial issue, underpinned by uncertain scientific knowledge. As such, it can be argued that it falls into the realm of post-normal science, which advocates transparency about uncertainties and stakeholder peer review of knowledge feeding into decision-making. This paper focuses on selected examples of modelling and risk assessment research relating to Hector’s and Māui dolphin threat management. It explores how knowledge is developed, shared and utilised by decision-makers, finding that uncertain scientific knowledge may be shared in ways that make it appear more certain, with some of the subjectivities involved in knowledge production hidden from view. Interviews with stakeholders illustrate how some stakeholders are aware of the subjectivities involved when uncertain knowledge underpins decision-making, so a lack of transparency may be leading to erosion of social trust in decisions made. This in turn can lead to a lack of support for dolphin conservation measures from key stakeholders such as the commercial fishing industry. The paper concludes that while moves towards increasing transparency and stakeholder involvement are apparent, a deeper embrace of post-normal science approaches to knowledge production and dissemination would contribute to effective dolphin threat management in New Zealand.     

Analyzing flood risk and related impacts to urban communities in central Vietnam

This study aims at understanding flood risks and their impact on a community, in order to enhance communities’ resilience and adaptive capacity to these threats. It also investigates the possibility of looking at and handling risk from a resilience point of view. Therefore, while a conventional risk management process is employed in this study, social, physical, economic, and institutional dimensions of resilience are also included in order to grasp the extent of risks and the ways in which communities face, cope with, and recover from flooding. Findings showed that there was no significant difference in the perception of flood risk among household heads educated up to secondary school level, suggesting that they believe floods are purely natural events. Those with a higher level of education (high school and above) (82.7 % of respondents) were aware that flood disasters are the result of hazard and vulnerability combined. In addition, social dynamics were apparently strengthened by such disasters, which resulted in cohesion and mutual help following floods in some wards. Also, households with more sources of income and more savings appear to recover faster than others after a flooding event. With regard to governance and networks, greater efforts have to be made by local institutions to ensure basic functioning during and after disaster events and to invest more into risk reduction activities. However, further studies need to be conducted to clarify the understanding of the impact flood disasters have on the environment and community lives and livelihoods in general, as traditional coping strategies, although still practical, no longer suffice in the face of changes in climate and environment.     

关闭搬迁企业地块风险筛查方法评估——基于EPACMTP模型的研究

通过污染物迁移转化多介质模型-EPACMTP模型,使用区域灵敏度分析、全局灵敏度分析与实证案例验证等方法,对风险筛查指标体系的指标完备性、权重与赋分合理性及判断可靠性进行了研究.结果表明,除渗滤液浓度外,风险筛查指标涵盖了所有灵敏度显著的参数（13个）;对于大部分灵敏度或重要性较高的参数给予了较大权重,对重点区域面积、离最近敏感目标的距离等两项指标的赋分整体合理;对低污染场地的判断结果较为可靠.最后,本文建议风险筛查过程中进一步提高对污染物迁移过程的关注,对指标内部分级与赋分进行调整,并重点关注中高风险场地与砷污染场地.     

地下水污染风险区划方法研究

针对地下水易污性评价未考虑污染源要素,缺乏系统有效的地下水污染风险区划方法与参数体系等问题,基于对污染地下水的系统结构分析,污染源解析,构建了地下水脆弱性与污染源综合评价耦合模型,提出了针对地下水污染源的多指标评价方法,形成了地下水污染风险区划的多因素综合评价方法,建立了系统的地下水污染风险评价的参数体系.利用构建的多因素耦合评价方法,以我国北方某大型岩溶地下水源地作为案例进行了污染风险区划,确定了主要污染风险区域.结果表明,风险源与地下水易污性的共同作用决定了地下水高污染风险区分布.地下水污染风险区划方法的建立为地下水污染有效监管提供了必要的方法支撑.     

Nuisance arthropods, nonhost odors, and vertebrate chemical aposematism

Mosquitoes, ticks, and other ectoparasitic arthropods use chemoreception to avoid vertebrates that are known or presumed to be dangerous or otherwise unprofitable hosts. Nonhosts may belong to a species that is regularly unaccepted or one that includes both accepted and unaccepted individuals. A diverse array of qualities including immunocompetence, vigilant grooming behavior, mechanical inaccessibility, and toxicity have been proposed as the features that render vertebrate chemical emitters unsuitable as hosts for arthropods. In addition to advantages accrued by ectoparasitic arthropods that avoid nonhosts, vertebrates that are not accepted as hosts benefit by evading injurious ectoparasites and the infectious agents they transmit. The conferral of advantages to both chemical receivers (ectoparasitic arthropods) and emitters (unpreferred vertebrates) in these interactions renders nonhost odors aposematic. Chemical aposematism involving ectoparasites selects for vertebrates that emit distinctive odors. In addition, chemical mimicry, where vulnerable organisms benefit when misidentified as nonhosts, may be accommodated by duped ectoparasites.     

Sex allocation and secondary sex ratio in Cuban boa (Chilabothrus angulifer): mother’s body size affects the ratio between sons and daughters

The Science of Nature - By working together, social insects achieve tasks that are beyond the reach of single individuals. A striking example of collective behaviour is self-assembly, a process in...     

Assessment of risks for adaptation to climate change: the case of land-slides

This paper describes how relatively detailed knowledge about probabilities of natural hazards can be used to make decisions to develop areas and control the risk within hazard zones. The assessment serves two purposes. First, it shows how information can support decisions. Second, decision criteria put leads on what information is required. This is helpful to identify unavailable information. We show by an example from a land-slide prone area in Norway how a relatively reliable estimate of the probability of slides ends up in a rather uncertain estimate of the risk. Uncertainty about the risk represented by natural hazards imply great challenges to the development of adaptation policies to meet climate change, but they are required. We develop a simplified criterion for optimal adaptation, and estimate the added social value required to defend development in hazard prone areas instead of developing a risk-free alternative. The value is estimated between 0 and 0.40 Euros per Euro invested in the case area, depending on type of slide, category of asset and other costs that occur in the wake of slides.     

退耕还林工程与农业生态经济社会系统协同性研究——以安塞县为例

针对黄土丘陵区退耕还林工程与农业生态经济社会协同性研究滞后的现实,在构建退耕还林工程与农业生态经济社会协同性表征体系的基础上,通过建立耦合度模型分析了二者的协同性及相关问题,将退耕还林工程与农业生态经济社会系统协同关系划分为4个阶段：（Ⅰ）协作推进与发展阶段,（Ⅱ）相悖阶段,（Ⅲ）无序失衡阶段,（Ⅳ）抑制发展阶段。其中阶段Ⅲ只是理论结果,在实际政策约束和农户行为的影响下一般不会出现;而阶段Ⅱ和阶段Ⅳ可能会短期出现。以安塞县为例,系统分析了不同阶段协同性演变过程：1995—2014年,安塞县先后经历了相悖阶段和协作推进与发展阶段,目前处于协作推进与发展阶段的下降时期。基于此,需要进一步优化产业结构提高区域内资源的有效利用率,通过林种结构的合理布局,提高退耕林分质量,推进退耕还林工程与农业生态经济社会系统的协同发展。     

Multilevel selection and social evolution of insect societies

How sterile, altruistic worker castes have evolved in social insects and how they are maintained have long been central topics in evolutionary biology. With the advance of kin selection theory, insect societies, in particular those of haplodiploid bees, ants, and wasps, have become highly suitable model systems for investigating the details of social evolution and recently also how within-group conflicts are resolved. Because insect societies typically do not consist of clones, conflicts among nestmates arise, for example about the partitioning of reproduction and the allocation of resources towards male and female sexuals. Variation in relatedness among group members therefore appears to have a profound influence on the social structure of groups. However, insect societies appear to be remarkably robust against such variation: division of labor and task allocation are often organized in more or less the same way in societies with high as in those with very low nestmate relatedness. To explain the discrepancy between predictions from kin structure and empirical data, it was suggested that constraints—such as the lack of power or information—prevent individuals from pursuing their own selfish interests. Applying a multilevel selection approach shows that these constraints are in fact group-level adaptation preventing or resolving intracolonial conflict. The mechanisms of conflict resolution in insect societies are similar to those at other levels in the biological hierarchy (e.g., in the genome or multicellular organisms): alignment of interests, fair lottery, and social control. Insect societies can thus be regarded as a level of selection with novelties that provide benefits beyond the scope of a solitary life. Therefore, relatedness is less important for the maintenance of insect societies, although it played a fundamental role in their evolution.Dedicated to Prof. Ernst Mayr     

The Process Analysis Method of selecting indicators to quantify the sustainability performance of a business operation

This paper describes a method for assessing the degree of sustainability of a business operation, in terms of indicators related to the sustainability impacts of its particular activities. The Process Analysis Method considers the impact on the capital residing in the three domains: the environment, the economy and the domain of human/social capital. It is found, using the Brundtland definition of sustainability, that these impacts can be related to two business perspectives: (1) Resource efficiency, which measures the effectiveness of conversion of natural, financial, human and social capital; (2) Fairness in benefit which describes how fairly the benefits and disbenefits of changes in the three domains are distributed amongst stakeholders.The method requires a complete review of the activities of the business within an appropriately defined system boundary, in order to make an inventory of activities which affect the capital stores of value; those effects are found to relate to the business perspectives. The effects of these activities on stakeholders are identified, and those which are deemed to be significant are characterised by issues: these determine the selection of indicators whose values are given by metrics. The methodology thus enables the development of a comprehensive set of sustainability indicators and metrics for the particular business operation. The set of indicators will be similar for businesses with similar activities, so the methodology facilitates comparison and benchmarking. Further, the value of a particular indicator can be traced back through the analysis to a particular business process, which is especially helpful in guiding remedial action, since cause is linked to effect by the method.     

What Use Is Science to Animal Welfare?

   My concern is to question the quality and utility of science in general and ethology in particular as applied to animal welfare. This topic has in the past provoked me to some severe criticism, for example, 'A lot of well-intended welfare research is neither very good science nor very helpful to the animals.... Too much welfare research is (in my opinion) flawed either because it is oversimplistic, or because it is not so much designed to test preconceptions but to reinforce prejudice' (Webster 1994). Dawkins (1997) has recently responded to this challenge, addressing the question 'Why has there not been more progress in welfare research?' Her response is concerned largely with applied ethology. My own criticism was not directed at ethologists in particular. I was more concerned by the misuse of scientific method by those who seek to obtain a so-called 'objective' measurement of something which they preconceive to be a stress (e.g. measurement of plasma concentrations of cortisol or endorphins in animals following transportation). Here the 'objective' measure frequently becomes the test that gives the answer that they want, and if it fails, then they seek other 'objective' markers until they achieve a set of measurements that supports the subjective impression which they had at the outset. My second main concern is that the welfare state of a sentient animal is a very complex affair and cannot be embraced by any single scientific discipline, be it ethology, physiology, molecular or neurobiology. Unfortunately it is also too complex to be embraced by a single-sentence definition. The best I can do is to suggest that it is determined by the capacity of an animal to sustain physical fitness and avoid mental suffering. The assessment of this is necessarily multidisciplinary.